| 1. |
- Blunden, Jessica, et al.
(författare)
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State of the Climate in 2012
- 2013
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 94:8, s. S1-S258
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- For the first time in serveral years, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation did not dominate regional climate conditions around the globe. A weak La Ni a dissipated to ENSOneutral conditions by spring, and while El Nino appeared to be emerging during summer, this phase never fully developed as sea surface temperatures in the eastern conditions. Nevertheless, other large-scale climate patterns and extreme weather events impacted various regions during the year. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation from mid-January to early February contributed to frigid conditions in parts of northern Africa, eastern Europe, and western Asia. A lack of rain during the 2012 wet season led to the worst drought in at least the past three decades for northeastern Brazil. Central North America also experienced one of its most severe droughts on record. The Caribbean observed a very wet dry season and it was the Sahel's wettest rainy season in 50 years. Overall, the 2012 average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces ranked among the 10 warmest years on record. The global land surface temperature alone was also among the 10 warmest on record. In the upper atmosphere, the average stratospheric temperature was record or near-record cold, depending on the dataset. After a 30-year warming trend from 1970 to 1999 for global sea surface temperatures, the period 2000-12 had little further trend. This may be linked to the prevalence of La Ni a-like conditions during the 21st century. Heat content in the upper 700 m of the ocean remained near record high levels in 2012. Net increases from 2011 to 2012 were observed at 700-m to 2000-m depth and even in the abyssal ocean below. Following sharp decreases in to the effects of La Ni a, sea levels rebounded to reach records highs in 2012. The increased hydrological cycle seen in recent years continued, with more evaporation in drier locations and more precipitation in rainy areas. In a pattern that has held since 2004, salty areas of the ocean surfaces and subsurfaces were anomalously salty on average, while fresher areas were anomalously fresh. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2012 was near average, with a total of 84 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010 and 2011, the North Atlantic was the only hurricane basin that experienced above-normal activity. In this basin, Sandy brought devastation to Cuba and parts of the eastern North American seaboard. All other basins experienced either near-or below-normal tropical cyclone activity. Only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity-all in Bopha became the only storm in the historical record to produce winds greater than 130 kt south of 7 N. It was also the costliest storm to affect the Philippines and killed more than 1000 residents. Minimum Arctic sea ice extent in September and Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in June both reached new record lows. June snow cover extent is now declining at a faster rate (-17.6% per decade) than September sea ice extent (-13.0% per decade). Permafrost temperatures reached record high values in northernmost Alaska. A new melt extent record occurred on 11-12 July on the Greenland ice sheet; 97% of the ice sheet showed some form of melt, four times greater than the average melt for this time of year. The climate in Antarctica was relatively stable overall. The largest maximum sea ice extent since records begain in 1978 was observed in September 2012. In the stratosphere, warm air led to the second smallest ozone hole in the past two decades. Even so, the springtime ozone layer above Antarctica likely will not return to its early 1980s state until about 2060. Following a slight decline associated with the global 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reached a record 9.5 +/- 0.5 Pg C in 2011 and a new record of 9.7 +/- 0.5 Pg C is estimated for 2012. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by 2.1 ppm in 2012, to 392.6 ppm. In spring 2012, 2 concentration exceeded 400 ppm at 7 of the 13 Arctic observation sites. Globally, other greenhouse gases including methane and nitrous oxide also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 32% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Concentrations of most ozone depleting substances continued to fall.
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| 2. |
- Doyle, Samuel H., et al.
(författare)
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Amplified melt and flow of the Greenland ice sheet driven by late-summer cyclonic rainfall
- 2015
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Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 8:8, s. 647-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Intense rainfall events significantly affect Alpine and Alaskan glaciers through enhanced melting, ice-flow acceleration and subglacial sediment erosion, yet their impact on the Greenland ice sheet has not been assessed. Here we present measurements of ice velocity, subglacial water pressure and meteorological variables from the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet during a week of warm, wet cyclonic weather in late August and early September 2011. We find that extreme surface runoff from melt and rainfall led to a widespread acceleration in ice flow that extended 140 km into the ice-sheet interior. We suggest that the late-season timing was critical in promoting rapid runoff across an extensive bare ice surface that overwhelmed a subglacial hydrological system in transition to a less-efficient winter mode. Reanalysis data reveal that similar cyclonic weather conditions prevailed across southern and western Greenland during this time, and we observe a corresponding ice-flow response at all land- and marine-terminating glaciers in these regions for which data are available. Given that the advection of warm, moist air masses and rainfall over Greenland is expected to become more frequent in the coming decades, our findings portend a previously unforeseen vulnerability of the Greenland ice sheet to climate change.
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| 3. |
- Machguth, Horst, et al.
(författare)
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Greenland meltwater storage in firn limited by near-surface ice formation
- 2016
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Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 6:4, s. 390-393
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Approximately half of Greenland's current annual mass loss is attributed to runoff from surface melt. At higher elevations, however, melt does not necessarily equal runoff, because meltwater can refreeze in the porous near-surface snow and firn. Two recent studies suggest that all or most of Greenland's firn pore space is available for meltwater storage, making the firn an important buffer against contribution to sea level rise for decades to come. Here, we employ in situ observations and historical legacy data to demonstrate that surface runoff begins to dominate over meltwater storage well before firn pore space has been completely filled. Our observations frame the recent exceptional melt summers in 2010 and 2012, revealing significant changes in firn structure at different elevations caused by successive intensive melt events. In the upper regions (more than similar to 1,900 m above sea level), firn has undergone substantial densification, while at lower elevations, where melt is most abundant, porous firn has lost most of its capability to retain meltwater. Here, the formation of near-surface ice layers renders deep pore space difficult to access, forcing meltwater to enter an efficient surface discharge system and intensifying ice sheet mass loss earlier than previously suggested.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- van Dongen, Eef C. H., et al.
(författare)
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Dynamically coupling full Stokes and shallow shelf approximation for marine ice sheet flow using Elmer/Ice (v8.3)
- 2018
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Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 11:11, s. 4563-4576
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Ice flow forced by gravity is governed by the full Stokes (FS) equations, which are computationally expensive to solve due to the nonlinearity introduced by the rheology. Therefore, approximations to the FS equations are commonly used, especially when modeling a marine ice sheet (ice sheet, ice shelf, and/or ice stream) for 103 years or longer. The shallow ice approximation (SIA) and shallow shelf approximation (SSA) are commonly used but are accurate only for certain parts of an ice sheet. Here, we report a novel way of iteratively coupling FS and SSA that has been implemented in Elmer/Ice and applied to conceptual marine ice sheets. The FS-SSA coupling appears to be very accurate; the relative error in velocity compared to FS is below 0.5% for diagnostic runs and below 5% for prognostic runs. Results for grounding line dynamics obtained with the FS-SSA coupling are similar to those obtained from an FS model in an experiment with a periodical temperature forcing over 3000 years that induces grounding line advance and retreat. The rapid convergence of the FS-SSA coupling shows a large potential for reducing computation time, such that modeling a marine ice sheet for thousands of years should become feasible in the near future. Despite inefficient matrix assembly in the current implementation, computation time is reduced by 32 %, when the coupling is applied to a 3-D ice shelf.
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| 6. |
- Helsen, Michiel M., et al.
(författare)
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On the importance of the albedo parameterization for the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet in EC-Earth
- 2017
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Ingår i: The Cryosphere. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1994-0416 .- 1994-0424. ; 11:4, s. 1949-1965
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The albedo of the surface of ice sheets changes as a function of time due to the effects of deposition of new snow, ageing of dry snow, bare ice exposure, melting and run-off. Currently, the calculation of the albedo of ice sheets is highly parameterized within the earth system model EC-Earth by taking a constant value for areas with thick perennial snow cover. This is an important reason why the surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is poorly resolved in the model. The purpose of this study is to improve the SMB forcing of the GrIS by evaluating different parameter settings within a snow albedo scheme. By allowing ice-sheet albedo to vary as a function of wet and dry conditions, the spatial distribution of albedo and melt rate improves. Nevertheless, the spatial distribution of SMB in EC-Earth is not significantly improved. As a reason for this, we identify omissions in the current snow albedo scheme, such as separate treatment of snow and ice and the effect of refreezing. The resulting SMB is downscaled from the lower-resolution global climate model topography to the higher-resolution ice-sheet topography of the GrIS, such that the influence of these different SMB climatologies on the long-term evolution of the GrIS is tested by ice-sheet model simulations. From these ice-sheet simulations we conclude that an albedo scheme with a short response time of decaying albedo during wet conditions performs best with respect to long-term simulated ice-sheet volume. This results in an optimized albedo parameterization that can be used in future EC-Earth simulations with an interactive ice-sheet component.
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| 7. |
- Beaudon, Emelie, et al.
(författare)
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Lomonosovfonna and Holtedahlfonna ice cores reveal east west disparities of the Spitsbergen environment since AD 1700
- 2013
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Ingår i: Journal of Glaciology. - 0022-1430 .- 1727-5652. ; 59:218, s. 1069-1083
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An ice core extracted from Holtedahlfonna ice cap, western Spitsbergen, record spanning the period 1700–2005, was analyzed for major ions. The leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) component is correlated with an index of summer melt (log([Na + ]/[Mg 2+ ]) from 1850 and shows that almost 50% of the variance can be attributed to seasonal melting since the beginning of the industrial revolution. The Holtedahlfonna d 18 O value is less negative than in the more easterly Lomonosovfonna ice core, suggesting that moist air masses originate from a closer source, most likely the Greenland Sea. During the Little Ice Age the lower methanesulfonic acid (MSA) concentration and MSA non-sea-salt sulfate fraction are consistent with the Greenland Sea as the main source for biogenic ions in the ice cores. Both the melt index and the MSA fraction suggest that the early decades of the 18th century may have exhibited the coldest summers of the last 300 years in Svalbard. Ammonium concentrations rise from 1880, which may result from the warming of the Greenland Sea or from zonal differences in atmospheric pollution transport over Svalbard. During winter, neutralized aerosols are trapped within the tropospheric inversion layer, which is usually weaker over open seas than over sea ice, placing Holtedahlfonna within the inversion more frequently than Lomonosovfonna.
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| 8. |
- Isaksson, Elisabeth, et al.
(författare)
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Two ice core δ18O records from Svalbard illustrating climate and sea ice variability over the last 400 years
- 2005
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Ingår i: The Holocene. - : SAGE Publications. - 0959-6836 .- 1477-0911. ; 15:4, s. 501-509
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Ice cores from the relatively low-lying ice caps in Svalbard have not been widely exploited in climatic studies owing to uncertainties about the effect of meltwater percolation. However, results from two new Svalbard ice cores, at Lomonosovfonna and Austfonna, have shown that with careful site selection, high-resolution sampling and multiple chemical analyses it is possible to recover ice cores from which part of the annual signals are preserved, despite the considerable meltwater percolation. The new Svalbard ice cores are positioned in different parts of Svalbard and cover the past 800 years. In this paper we focus on the last 400 years. The 6180 signals from the cores are qualitatively similar over most of the twentieth century, suggesting that they record the same atmospheric signal. Prior to AD 1920, the Austfonna ice core exhibits more negative 6180 values than Lomonosovfonna, although there are intermittent decadal-scale periods throughout the record with similar values. We suggest that the differences reflect the effect of the inversion layer during the winter. The pattern in the 6180 records is similar to the Longyearbyen airtemperature record, but on an annual level the correlation is low. The Austfonna record correlates well with the temperature record from the more distant and southwesterly located Jan Mayen. A comparison of the ice-core and sea-ice records from this period suggests that sea-ice extent and Austfonna 6180 are related over the past 400 years. This may reflect the position of the storm tracks and their direct influence on the relatively low-altitude Austfonna. Lomonosovfonna may be less sensitive to such changes and primarily record free atmospheric changes instead of variations in sea-ice extent, the latter is probably a result of its higher elevation.
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| 9. |
- Kekonen, Teija, et al.
(författare)
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800 year long ion record from the Lomonosovfonna (Svalbard) ice core
- 2005
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research. - 0148-0227 .- 2156-2202. ; 110:D7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a high-resolution record of water-soluble ion chemistry from a 121 m ice core spanning about 800 years. The core is well dated to 2/3 depth using cycle counting and reference horizons and a simple but close fitting model for the lower 1/3 of the core. This core suffers from modest seasonal melt, and so we present concentration data in decadal running means to minimize percolation effects. Sea-salt ions (Na+, Cl−, Mg2+, and K+) account for more than 70% of all ions. In general, sea-salt ion concentrations are rather variable and have no clear association with climatic variations. Sulfate, with 74% being from non-sea-salt sources, has higher concentrations than seen on Vestfonna ice cap but lower than in Ny-Ålesund aerosols, suggesting central Spitsbergen receives more marine (westerly) air masses than Ny-Ålesund but more sulfate enriched (easterly) air masses than Nordaustlandet. Clear anthropogenic impacts are found for sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium (and probably excess chloride) after the mid twentieth century, with sulfate showing a significant rise by the end of the nineteenth century. Sulfate and methanesulfonate concentrations correlate well during the twentieth century, and it is clear that most of the preindustrial sulfate is of biogenic origin. Terrestrial component (Ca2+) has the highest concentrations in the coldest part of the Little Ice Age, suggesting more windy conditions, transporting local terrestrial dust to the ice cap. All ion concentrations decrease at the end of the twentieth century, which reflects loss of ions by runoff, with non-sea-salt magnesium being particularly sensitive to melting.
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| 10. |
- Prokopiou, Markella, et al.
(författare)
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Constraining N2O emissions since 1940 using firn air isotope measurements in both hemispheres
- 2017
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 17:7, s. 4539-4564
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- N2O is currently the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in terms of radiative forcing and its atmospheric mole fraction is rising steadily. To quantify the growth rate and its causes over the past decades, we performed a multi-site reconstruction of the atmospheric N2O mole fraction and isotopic composition using new and previously published firn air data collected from Greenland and Antarctica in combination with a firn diffusion and densification model. The multi-site reconstruction showed that while the global mean N2O mole fraction increased from (290±1)nmolmol-1 in 1940 to (322±1)nmolmol-1 in 2008, the isotopic composition of atmospheric N2O decreased by (-2.2±0.2)% for δ15Nav, (-1.0±0.3)% for δ18O, (-1.3±0.6)% for δ15Nα, and (-2.8±0.6)% for δ15Nβ over the same period. The detailed temporal evolution of the mole fraction and isotopic composition derived from the firn air model was then used in a two-box atmospheric model (comprising a stratospheric box and a tropospheric box) to infer changes in the isotopic source signature over time. The precise value of the source strength depends on the choice of the N2O lifetime, which we choose to fix at 123 years. The average isotopic composition over the investigated period is δ15Nav Combining double low line (-7.6±0.8)% (vs. air-N2), δ18O Combining double low line (32.2±0.2)% (vs. Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water-VSMOW) for δ18O, δ15Nα Combining double low line (-3.0±1.9)% and δ15Nβ Combining double low line (-11.7±2.3)%. δ15Nav, and δ15Nβ show some temporal variability, while for the other signatures the error bars of the reconstruction are too large to retrieve reliable temporal changes. Possible processes that may explain trends in 15N are discussed. The 15N site preference (Combining double low line δ15Nα-δ15Nβ) provides evidence of a shift in emissions from denitrification to nitrification, although the uncertainty envelopes are large.
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