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Numrering	Referens	Omslagsbild	Hitta
1.	Heshmati, Almas, et al. (författare) A production analysis of the manufacturing industries in Iran 1998 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 59:2, s. 183-196 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract This article is concerned with the estimation of production functions, returns to scale, and measurement of the rate of technical change using panel data. Technical change is represented by single as well as multiple time trends. The underlying production technology is represented in translog functional form. A random effects model with heteroscedastic variances is used. The models are estimated using the generalized least squares method. The disturbances of cross-sectional units are assumed to be correlated over time. Empirically, our focus is on measuring technical change in Iranian manufacturing industries during the period 1971-1993. Empirical results show that single or multiple time trend representations yield different time behavior of technical change. In the multiple time trends model, we observe a sharp decline in the pattern of technical change in 1978 in relation to the political changes. In the single time trend, as expected, the sharp decline cannot be revealed due to the smooth pattern of technical progress during the entire period of study.
2.	Abatecola, G., et al. (författare) Do organizations really co-evolve? : Problematizing co-evolutionary change in management and organization studies 2020 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 155 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract This conceptual article discusses and, from some aspects, also problematizes the state-of-the-art regarding co-evolutionary research in Management and Organization Studies (MOS). Analyzing 76 characteristic studies published since 2000, we address three simple, significant questions: What co-evolves? What causal relationships are considered? What are the theoretical processes? The motivation behind our contribution is twofold: on the one hand, the turn of the century witnessed the remarkable growth of inquiries which, at face value, have claimed to be “co-evolutionary”; but, on the other hand, specific analyses about where this fast-growing meta-theoretical perspective on social change is now, and where it could move towards in the future, are still missing in MOS. Our study reveals increasing heterogeneity in defining what co-evolves and the associated causal relationships. It also reveals the prevailing scarcity in explaining what processes substantially characterize co-evolution in MOS. With a view to shaping the future direction of research in this area, we propose four core principles that theoretically set the co-evolutionary project apart.
3.	Aerts, Ria, et al. (författare) Overcoming hospital resistance in an international innovation co-creation 2023 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - New York : Elsevier. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 187 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract The health sector is very specific and difficult market for firms to access and deal with. The main reasons for this is that the healthcare systems are in continuous change, the co-creation processes in hospitals are complicated involving many different actors which also affects on firms commercialization and internationalization approaches. However, there is a growing demand of health services and the sector is growing also due to the COVID situation, that has been dramatically speeding up the digitalization of the healthcare services in the hospital settings. Approaching international hospital markets is, however, challenging for the start-up companies. On their journey they are facing a resistance, that they have to overcome in many different ways. The aim of this paper is to increase understanding how a start-up can overcome hospital resistance in an international innovation co-creation process. The results of are based on in depth case study in which the data collection was done over the four years of data gathering. The paper highlights how start-up companies can overcome the resistance in the international innovation co-creation in the hospital markets. It shows the importance of different activities, actors, capabilities and international activities in different phases of the international innovation co-creation journey. © 2022
4.	Ancillai, Chiara, et al. (författare) Digital technology and business model innovation : A systematic literature review and future research agenda 2023 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 188 Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract Digital technologies (e.g. Industry 4.0, Internet of Things, cloud computing, big data, blockchain, etc.), are profoundly affecting companies' activities and processes, thus leading to changes in firms' value creation, value delivery, and value capture mechanisms. Yet, despite significant investments in digital technologies and digital transformation, firms are struggling to yield the most out of them, thereby facing a digital paradox. This scenario has drawn the attention of academics and practitioners leading to a growing body of literature on the rela-tionship between digital technology and business model innovation. Yet, the extant academic research in this area appears highly fragmented. Hence, this study conducts a systematic literature review to gather and syn-thesize the extant knowledge on this topic. The review identifies four main thematic areas, provides an inter-pretative framework, and suggests valuable future research directions within each thematic area. The article contributes to the theoretical and managerial discussion on digital-driven business model innovation.
5.	Andersson, David E., 1984-, et al. (författare) Industrial design rights and the market value of firms 2023 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 196 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract This paper studies how investments in design affect the market value of firms, using European Registered Community Designs and national Swedish design rights data combined with R&D, patent and trademark data, for the period 2003–2013. This paper is the first large-scale quantitative study using industrial designs rights to measure design. Nonlinear least-squares regressions are used to investigate the association between these variables and the market value of Swedish firms. The results show that industrial designs rights have a positive and significant relationship to the market value of firms. It provides both new evidence on the effect of industrial design rights on the market value of firms and internationally comparable results for other intangible assets such as patents, trademarks and R&D. Theoretically, the paper contributes to the understanding of design knowledge and the valuation of design rights.
6.	Andersson, David Emanuel, et al. (författare) Infrastructural change and secular economic development 2008 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 75:6, s. 799-816 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Long-term economic development is determined by changes to the infrastructure, especially material and non-material infrastructural networks that link agents in different locations. The infrastructure consists of the slowly changing, collective arena that supports production, exchange, and consumption, such as the built environment, transport networks, and institutions. In the short run the infrastructure can be regarded as fixed. Changes to the infrastructure are under normal conditions small enough to be disregarded by producers and consumers. With the creation of a critical link of a network, there will however be a revolutionary restructuring of the arena. Critical links are here defined as additions to infrastructural networks that create opportunities for new information and transport flows between previously unconnected regions. Such a revolutionary restructuring of infrastructural networks has been called a logistical revolution. Certain institutional pre-conditions are necessary for a logistical revolution, while the creation of a critical link is both a necessary and a sufficient condition. This paper discusses the three logistical revolutions that occurred in the 13th century, around 1600, and in the 19th century, which each had crucial similarities with the current “information revolution.”
7.	Andersson, Johnn, 1983, et al. (författare) Shaping factors in the emergence of technological innovations: The case of tidal kite technology 2018 Ingår i: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 132, s. 191-298 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract The technological innovation systems (TIS) literature offers a detailed and dynamic understanding of factors that enable successful innovation. However, few studies analyze what determines where in space value chain elements are developed as a new technology is diffused on a large scale. The purpose of this paper is to show how the TIS approach can be used to identify and analyze factors that shape spatial trajectories of emerging technologies. It proposes an adapted analytical framework that expands the conventional focus on one-dimensional supporting and blocking factors, to shaping factors that incorporate the spatiality of innovation. The approach is illustrated by examining innovation in tidal kite technology. The analysis finds that a supportive local context in western Sweden during the infancy of tidal kite technology, together with the availability of competent engineers and business development professionals, promoted the formation of locally embedded knowledge and competence. This in turn created a spatial path dependency that made developments gravitate towards Sweden, although the lack of domestic markets has also increasingly driven an expansion of activity to other regions, in particular the UK. Moreover, the analysis shows that shaping, and not only stimulating, the growth of emerging TIS is an important challenge for regional policymakers, and highlights the need for international policy coordination. The paper concludes that analyzing shaping factors in the emergence of new TISs can yield important insights, some of which may be overlooked with a narrow analytical focus on supporting and blocking factors.
8.	Andersson, Martin, et al. (författare) Software development and innovation : Exploring the software shift in innovation in Swedish firms 2021 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier Inc.. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 167 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract A number of scholars and industry professionals have claimed that there has been a ‘software-biased shift’ in the nature and direction of innovation, in that software development is a core part of innovation activities in firms across a wide array of industries. Empirical firm-level evidence of such a shift is still scant. In this paper, we employ new and unique firm-level survey data on the frequency and nature of software development among firms in Sweden, matched with the Community Innovation Survey (CIS). We find robust evidence supporting a software bias in innovation, in that software development is associated with a higher likelihood of introducing innovations, as well as higher innovation sales among firms in both manufacturing and service industries. Furthermore, this positive relationship is stronger for firms that employ in-house software developers than for those that only use external developers, suggesting that there is a hierarchy but possibly also a complementarity between in-house and external software development. We also find support for complementarity between software-based technology and human capital; the estimated marginal effect of software development on innovation is particularly strong for firms that combine in-house software development with a highly educated workforce in both STEM and other disciplines. © 2021
9.	Andreasson, Martin, 1993-, et al. (författare) Dynamics of related and unrelated digital diversification in established firms : Strategies, programs, process, and outcomes 2024 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 202 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Research on digital transformation focuses on business models and technological innovation but it often lacks a detailed exploration of how firms develop, execute, and evaluate related and unrelated digital diversification strategies. To address this gap, this study employs a multiple case study approach to uncover the varied processes and outcomes of implementing digital diversification programs in established firms. The findings reveal that established firms frequently refine and adjust their digital diversification strategies to achieve desired results. Specifically, related digital diversification strategies benefit from well-defined market segments, clear technological focus, and robust senior management support. In contrast, unrelated digital diversification strategies thrive through extensive exploration and experimentation with novel digital technologies and markets, reduced senior managerial intervention and increased middle- and lower-level management involvement. Semi-related digital diversification strategies, which incorporate elements of both related and unrelated approaches, often encounter tensions owing to conflicting traditional and new program execution methods, posing significant realization challenges. Key factors identified as instrumental in the success of digital diversification strategies include technology, markets, management & organization, and program execution. The study concludes by discussing the managerial and academic implications and offers recommendations for future research in this domain.
10.	Annarelli, Alessandro, et al. (författare) Literature review on digitalization capabilities : Co-citation analysis of antecedents, conceptualization and consequences 2021 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 166 Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract Recent decades have witnessed increased number of studies focusing on digitalization and related capabilities. Across disciplines digitalization capability is viewed as a sources of sustained competiveness. Nonetheless, several issues related to conceptualizing digitalization capabilities remain ambivalent. The present study, uses co-citation analysis to clarify concept of digitalization capability and identify three underlining capabilities, namely digital integration capabilities, digital platform capabilities, and digital innovation capabilities, that represents micro-foundation of digitalization capabilities. Further, a capability-based model is developed which includes antecedents and consequences of digitalization capabilities in an integrated conceptual model. Suggestions for future research, theoretical contributions and managerial contributions are also presented.
11.	Anokhin, Sergey, et al. (författare) A conceptual framework for misfit technology commercialization 2011 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 78:6, s. 1060-1071 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract The emerging literature on outbound open innovation has highlighted innovation processes, which presuppose active outward technology transfer to increase firm profits. To contribute to this discourse, our paper goes beyond the emphasis on core-related technologies and knowledge that currently dominates the technology management literature and develops the novel concept of misfit technology. This concept captures technologies that are not aligned with a focal firm's current knowledge base and/or business model, but which may still be of great value to the firm if alternative commercialization options are considered. By developing a framework that acknowledges (1) Sources of misfit technology, (2) Environmental uncertainty, (3) Organizational slack, (4) Industry appropriability regime and (5) Technological complexity, we theorize on how different modes of commercialization relate to misfit technology commercialization success. The paper is conceptual and is presented with the purpose to spawn further research on this important topic, but simultaneously touches upon the issues of utmost relevance to R&D management practice
12.	Asplund, Fredrik, 1977-, et al. (författare) The genesis of public-private innovation ecosystems : Bias and challenges 2021 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 162 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract The emergence of technology increasingly depends on innovation ecosystems and frequently involves actors from both industry and academia. However, value creation may experience challenges due to bias formed during public-private innovation ecosystem genesis.This empirical study of bias in a new pan-European public-private initiative provides results regarding innovation ecosystems and the individuals typically active during their genesis: value creation is biased towards the selection of incumbent firms and complement challenges, and participation is biased towards engineers with knowledge of exploitation from multiple domains and researchers with knowledge of exploitation from single domains.This suggests that the implications of the loose coupling emphasised by the innovation ecosystems discourse and the knowledge of the different contexts in which firms capture value are more complex than previously acknowledged. The practical implications are that the ability of public innovation ecosystem leadership to act early on novel technology might be offset by the inability of involved firms to commit to bringing the technology to market and that individuals typically active during public-private innovation ecosystems genesis are not ideal for handling this challenge. In fact, increasingly connected public leadership could smother the innovation ecosystem unless well-connected and multidisciplinary researchers are brought in as brokers.
13.	Barbanente, Angela, et al. (författare) Visioning the regional future : Globalization and regional transformation of Rabat/Casablanca 2007 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 74:6, s. 763-778 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract The mainstream literature on globalization and regional transformation emphasizes two major perspectives. The first perspective combines global city theory with macro theories of transformations with a normative bias often leading to deterministic conceptualisations of globalization links to regional transformation. The other perspective emphasizes economy as the most important if not the only pushing factor for regional transformations with little attention to all transformations involving soft and informal structures The latter may be vital for such transformation. This paper takes a completely new approach namely to analyse local stakeholders' visions of regional transformation of the Rabat/Casablanca region in face the challenges that globalization poses.
14.	Batabyal, Amitrajeet A., et al. (författare) A political-economy analysis of the provision of urban anti-crime technologies in a model with three cities 2020 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 160 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract We use a theoretical political-economy model with three cities and analyze three questions. First, should police in these cities have access to contentious crime fighting technologies such as facial recognition software? We describe a condition involving benefit, cost, and spatial spillover terms which tells us when the police ought to be provided with this technology. Second, if police are to be offered this technology then what are the properties of a policy regime that provides this technology in a decentralized way? We identify a condition that depends only on benefit and cost terms which tells us when this technology is to be made available in the cities in a decentralized way. Finally, what are the properties of a policy regime that provides the technology in a centralized way with equal cost sharing by the cities? We obtain two conditions involving benefit and spatial spillover terms that describe scenarios in which (i) the technology is provided with majority voting in a city even though it is inefficient to do so and (ii) it is efficient to provide the technology in a city but majority voting will lead to this technology not being provided.
15.	Bernat, Stefan, 1974-, et al. (författare) Strategic alignment of technology : Organising for technology upgrading in emerging economy firms 2019 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - New York City : Elsevier. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 145, s. 295-306 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Technology upgrading plays a crucial role in the catching-up process of emerging economy firms (EEFs) that aim to develop technological capabilities and move from imitation to innovation. The literature on emerging economies has mainly focused on how EEFs overcome the lack of technological knowledge at initial stages of catching-up while neglecting organisational issues that arise at later stages. The purpose of this study was to explore organisational activities performed by EEFs that are innovating at advanced stages of catching-up. Two Brazilian firms, namely Petrobras and WEG, were selected to be studied and to provide evidence for the research. The results indicate that both firms have systematically monitored their environments to look for windows of opportunity and have consistently invested in learning mechanisms to overcome shortcomings in knowledge. Furthermore, an activity for aligning strategy and technology was found to be key for optimising the technology upgrading process and for maximising its results.
16.	Bustamante, Maria J. (författare) Digital platforms as common goods or economic goods? Constructing the worth of a nascent agricultural data platform 2023 Ingår i: Technological Forecasting & Social Change. - : Elsevier Inc. - 1873-5509 .- 0040-1625. ; 192 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract The potential of digital platforms to deliver on both economic and societal values is contested, with many arguing that economic value is prioritized to the detriment of more social values. Yet, the literature lacks in-depth empirical studies on how these perceptions of worth in the early stage of platform development are developed and settled upon. This paper draws on valuation studies to provide insight into how multiple platform founders construct the worth of a nascent agriculture data-sharing platform in Sweden. Using qualitative methods, the study shows that initially, the platform founders consider a number of values (accessible and transparent data, profitability, sustainability and innovation) that are defined through ‘common good’ and ‘economic good’ aspects. However, the need to articulate the worth to potential funders and partners encourages a reliance on measurable qualities, which subsequently leads to a shift in how values are defined and discussed, foregrounding and backgrounding different values and stakeholders in the process. These insights point to the complexity for firms grappling with economic and social values and highlight the need for the re-evaluation of the frameworks used to determine the value of innovation in the agri-food sector. •As digital platforms proliferate, there are questions around their ability to generate both economic and societal values•The perceived value of platforms and the values that underpin their development are not fully understood•The paper traces the values debated in the early stage processes of platform development•Analyzing these values provides insights into the implicit and explicit frames used to determine platform worth•These frames can affect which values and stakeholders get foregrounded or backgrounded in early-stage platform development
17.	Calof, Jonathan, et al. (författare) Understanding the structure, characteristics, and future of collective intelligence using local and global bibliometric analyses 2022 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - New York, NY : Elsevier. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 178 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract “Collective Intelligence” has been a popular area of research for more than a decade. We apply two different analytical approaches (local and global bibliometric analysis) to describe how this literature is organized and how it has evolved. A local approach focuses on the 3,138 articles indexed in the Scopus database where ‘collective intelligence’ is in the title, abstract, or keyword. A global approach reclassifies all of the Scopus documents into research communities using all (1.28 billion) citations in the database and proceeds to identify which research communities are populated by the 3,138 Collective Intelligence (CI) articles. These two approaches provide significantly different perspectives on how CI is structured, who the leaders of the field are, and how it is evolving. A synthesis of these two perspectives provides ideas for those who wish to contribute to the collective intelligence field. Our findings support the Kuhnian idea of research communities as a useful concept in bibliometric analysis. © 2022 The Authors.
18.	Carlsen, Henrik, et al. (författare) Co-evolutionary scenarios for creative prototyping of future robot systems for civil protection 2014 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 84, s. 93-100 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Co-evolutionary scenarios are used for creative prototyping with the purpose of assessing potential implications of future autonomous robot systems on civil protection. The methodology is based on a co-evolutionary scenario approach and the development of different evolutionary paths. Opportunities, threats and ethical aspects in connection with the introduction of robotics in the domestic security and safety sector are identified using an iterative participatory workshop methodology. Three creative prototypes of robotic systems are described: "RoboMall", "RoboButler" and "SnakeSquad". The debate in society that might follow the introduction of these three robot systems and society's response to the experienced ethical problems and opportunities are discussed in the context of two scenarios of different future societies.
19.	Chauhan, Chetna, et al. (författare) Linking circular economy and digitalisation technologies: A systematic literature review of past achievements and future promises 2022 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 177 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract The circular economy (CE) has the potential to capitalise upon emerging digital technologies, such as big data, artificial intelligence (AI), blockchain and the Internet of things (IoT), amongst others. These digital technologies combined with business model innovation are deemed to provide solutions to myriad problems in the world, including those related to circular economy transformation. Given the societal and practical importance of CE and digitalisation, last decade has witnessed a significant increase in academic publication on these topics. Therefore, this study aims to capture the essence of the scholarly work at the intersection of the CE and digital technologies. A detailed analysis of the literature based on emerging themes was conducted with a focus on illuminating the path of CE implementation. The results reveal that IoT and AI play a key role in the transition towards the CE. A multitude of studies focus on barriers to digitalisation-led CE transition and highlight policy-related issues, the lack of predictability, psychological issues and information vulnerability as some important barriers. In addition, product-service system (PSS) has been acknowledged as an important business model innovation for achieving the digitalisation enabled CE. Through a detailed assessment of the existing literature, a viable systems-based framework for digitalisation enabled CE has been developed which show the literature linkages amongst the emerging research streams and provide novel insights regarding the realisation of CE benefits.
20.	Chirumalla, Koteshwar, Associate Professor, et al. (författare) Enabling battery circularity : Unlocking circular business model archetypes and collaboration forms in the electric vehicle battery ecosystem 2024 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier Inc.. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 199 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Achieving battery circularity is crucial for meeting the targets of net-zero emission vehicles by 2030 and enabling climate-neutral transportation by 2050. To facilitate this transition, firms operating in the electric vehicle (EV) battery ecosystem must reassess their value creation, capture, and delivery methods. Although EV battery second life presents a promising solution for circularity, many vehicle manufacturers and stakeholders in the battery ecosystem struggle to adapt their organizations internally and externally due to a lack of insights into suitable circular business models. The purpose of this study is to identify viable archetypes of circular business models for EV battery second life and examine their implications on company collaborations within the EV battery ecosystem. Three main archetypes of circular business models are identified (i.e., extending, sharing, and looping business models) and further divided into eight sub-archetypes. These models are elucidated in terms of key business model dimensions, including value proposition, value co-creation, value delivery, and value capture. The paper provides visual representations of the necessary interactions and collaborations among companies in the EV battery ecosystem to effectively implement the proposed business model archetypes. This research contributes to the theory of circular business models in general, with specific relevance to EV battery circularity.
21.	Costa Climent, Ricardo, et al. (författare) Business model theory-based prediction of digital technology use : An empirical assessment 2021 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 173 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Firms invest heavily in their future use of digital technology to create and appropriate value and thereby survive and prosper. Such decisions regarding the future are part of a firm's foresight, which is a core element of a firm's dynamic capabilities. The contemporary toolbox for generating foresight is dominated by procedural methods, thus ignoring theory-based predictions of the future uses of digital technology. This paper presents the first empirical assessment of business model theory's ability to predict the future uses of digital technology by a given firm. Predictions for a specific niche of hemophilia firms are investigated. Outcomes related to these predictions are then observed. The results show the power of business model theory for deriving such predictions, implying that the managerial toolbox for foresight generation should be extended to include this theory. This study also provides several directions for further development of business model theory to increase its ability to account for value creation and appropriation from the use of digital technology.
22.	Decker-Lange, Carolin, et al. (författare) Small steps for the big hit: A dynamic capabilities perspective on business networks and non-disruptive digital technologies in SMEs 2023 Ingår i: Technological Forecasting & Social Change. - : Elsevier Inc. - 1873-5509 .- 0040-1625. ; 191 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract This study explores how small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) build on business networks to develop dynamic capabilities that ultimately foster the adoption of non-disruptive digital technologies (DT). Multiple mediation analysis is used to test this relationship, drawing on cross-industry secondary data from 1470 British SMEs. The results reveal that SMEs rely on business networks to support non-disruptive DT adoption. This relationship is mediated by the parallel effects of three dynamic capabilities (HR, strategic planning, and marketing capabilities). However, the results do not hold for each domain-specific dynamic capability. The mediating effect is particularly driven by marketing capabilities, while HR capabilities negatively affect DT adoption. These findings highlight the underlying mechanisms by which SMEs can enhance their adoption of non-disruptive DT in their daily operations and processes, which have the potential to strengthen their value proposition. •Internal resource constraints are a major obstacle for SMEs in adopting digital technologies and thus remaining competitive•SMEs rely on the expertise derived from formal business networks to overcome those internal resource constraints•Specific dynamic capabilities mediate the relationship between business networks and digital technology adoption•Interestingly, the mediation is particularly driven by marketing capabilities
23.	Donbesuur, F., et al. (författare) External knowledge resources and new venture success in developing economies : Leveraging innovative opportunities and legitimacy strategies 2022 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 185 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract This study draws insights from entrepreneurial opportunity and organizational legitimacy perspectives to specify an intervening role of opportunity recognition and the contingency effect of entrepreneurial legitimacy to explain how and when external knowledge resources are associated with new venture performance. The conceptual model is tested on primary data from 230 new ventures operating in a sub-Saharan African economy: Ghana. Findings from the study indicate that the relationship between external knowledge resources and new venture performance is mediated by opportunity recognition and that high levels of both strategic and regulatory legitimacy strategies strengthen the indirect relationship. Theoretical implications and new venture management lessons drawn from these findings are discussed.
24.	Eriksson, Klas, et al. (författare) A revised perspective on innovation policy for renewal of mature economies – Historical evidence from finance and telecommunications in Sweden 1980–1990 2019 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 147, s. 152-162 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract What is the role of innovation policy for accomplishing renewal of mature industries in Western economies? Drawing upon an unusually rich dataset spanning 9752 digitized archival documents, we categorize and code decisions taken by policymakers on several levels while also mapping and quantifying the strategic activities of both entrant firms and incumbent monopolists over a decade. Our data concerns two empirical cases from Sweden during the time period 1980–1990: the financial sector and the telecommunications sector. In both industries, a combination of technological and institutional upheaval came into motion during this time period which in turn fueled the revitalization of the Swedish economy in the subsequent decades. Our findings show that Swedish policymakers in both cases consistently acted in order to promote the emergence of more competition and de novo entrant firms at the expense of established monopolies. The paper quantifies and documents this process while also highlighting several enabling conditions. In conclusion, the results indicate that successful innovation policy in mature economies is largely a matter of strategically dealing with resourceful vested interest groups, alignment of expectations, and removing resistance to industrial renewal.
25.	Eslami, Mohammad H., 1985-, et al. (författare) Knowledge-sharing across supply chain actors in adopting Industry 4.0 technologies : An exploratory case study within the automotive industry 2023 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 186:Part A Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract This study investigates the role of knowledge-sharing between supply chain actors in facilitating their adoption of Industry 4.0 technologies, identifying factors that hinder or promote such knowledge-sharing. Drawing on an in-depth single case study, including 19 interviews with a manufacturing firm in the German automotive industry and five of the suppliers and customers in the focal firm’s supply chain, the study identifies the following knowledge-sharing approaches that facilitate the adoption of Industry 4.0: 1) knowledge-sharing through principles; 2) upstream flow of knowledge; 3) strategic positioning; and 4) application-relatedness. These approaches are shown to be influenced both by company-related factors and relational factors. Applying a knowledge-based view of the firm, this study addresses a gap in current research by investigating the role of knowledge-sharing in adopting Industry 4.0 from the perspectives not only of a single focal firm but also of upstream and downstream suppliers and customers in the supply chain. In presenting approaches to knowledge-sharing that promote the implementation of Industry 4.0 based on a firm's existing resources, this study is also of direct relevance to practitioners.
26.	Etzkowitz, Henry, et al. (författare) Entrepreneurial university dynamics : Structured ambivalence, relative deprivation and institution-formation in the Stanford innovation system 2019 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 141, s. 159-171 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
27.	Flostrand, Andrew, et al. (författare) The Delphi technique in forecasting : A 42-year bibliographic analysis (1975–2017) 2020 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 150 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Since the infancy of the Delphi Technique for collecting and aggregating expert insight, this methodological tool has been discussed, adapted and applied in over 2,600 published scholarly papers to date. This paper mines the major citation indexing services to analyze five dimensions of these data: primary contribution (methodological or applied), field and subfield, length (in pages), year, and journal/conference. Interpreted visual analytics of these five dimensions (both individually and in combination) provide researchers, practitioners and editors with clear insights about whether the Delphi technique is still as prominently used, discussed, and written about in the academic literature as it was twenty years ago and the related trends that might inform predictions of its future use. Among these insights, a simple time series of frequencies of Delphi publications by year immediately shows that academic acceptance of Delphi as a research tool is not only well established, but it has been growing in popularity and range of research domains for two decades predicting unprecedented levels of use in the years to come.
28.	Fredström, A., et al. (författare) Tracking innovation diffusion : AI analysis of large-scale patent data towards an agenda for further research 2021 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 165 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Recent advances in AI algorithms and computational power have led to opportunities for new methods and tools. Particularly when it comes to detecting the current status of inter-industry technologies, the new tools can be of great assistance. This is important because the research focus has been on how firms generate value through managing their business models. However, further attention needs to be given to the external technological opportunities that also contribute to value creation in firms. We applied unsupervised machine learning techniques, particularly DBSCAN, in an attempt to generate a macro-level technological map. Our results show that AI and machine learning tools can indeed be used for these purposes, and DBSCAN is a potential algorithm. Further research is needed to improve the maps and to use the generated data to study related phenomena including entrepreneurship.
29.	Fredström, Ashkan, et al. (författare) What is the Market Value of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning? : The Role of Innovativeness and Collaboration for Performance 2022 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 180 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract As AI and ML technologies are increasingly incorporated into products, there is a need to understand the role of these incorporations in enhancing performance. This study uses new types of methodology related to textual data analysis to explore the question of whether there is a difference between market sentiments—and consequently marketing and business performance—when it comes to communicating either AI or ML. We test and confirm the hypothesis that AI rather than ML attracts more positive sentiments in the marketplace. Additionally, we find that AI is mostly used when the discussion centers on innovativeness, and that discussions concerning collaboration in these technologies attract more positive sentiments. We further contribute methodologically by leveraging textual data available online on the titles of web-page contents and the results of the Vader sentiment analysis to test our hypothesis. We conclude that, to enhance business performance, firms should communicate using AI-related vocabulary especially when the topic is innovativeness and collaboration.
30.	Frishammar, Johan, et al. (författare) Digital health platforms for the elderly? Key adoption and usage barriers and ways to address them 2023 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 189 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Digital healthcare platforms (DHPs) represent a relatively new phenomenon that could provide a valuable complement to physical primary care – for example, by reducing costs, improving access to healthcare, and allowing patient monitoring. However, such platforms are mainly used today by the younger generations, which creates a “digital divide” between the younger and the elderly. This article aims to identify: i) the perceived key barriers that inhibit adoption and usage of DHPs by the elderly, and ii) what DHP providers can do to facilitate increased adoption and usage by the elderly. The article draws on qualitative interviews with elderly and complementary process data from a major Swedish DHP. We find that the elderly perceives two key barriers to initial adoption of DHPs: i) negative attitudes and technology anxiety and ii) one key barrier affecting both adoption and usage – lack of trust. The analysis also identifies multiple development suggestions for DHP improvement to better accommodate the needs of the elderly, including suggestions for application development and tailored education activities. We provide an integrated framework outlining the key barriers perceived and ways to address them. In so doing, we contribute to the literature on mHealth and to the literature on platforms in healthcare.
31.	Geissinger, Andrea, et al. (författare) Digital Disruption beyond Uber and Airbnb – tracking the long tail of the sharing economy 2020 Ingår i: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 155 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract The sharing economy can be regarded as a discontinuous innovation that creates increased abundance throughout society. Extant literature on the sharing economy has been predominantly concerned with Uber and Airbnb. As little is known about where the sharing economy is gaining momentum beyond transportation and accommodation, the purpose of this paper is to map in what sectors of the economy it is perceived to gain traction. Drawing on data from social and traditional media in Sweden, we identify a long tail of 17 sectors and 47 subsectors in which a total of 165 unique sharing-economy actors operate, including sectors such as on-demand services, fashion and clothing, and food delivery. Our findings therefore point at the expanding scope of the sharing economy and relatedly, we derive a set of implications for firms.
32.	Geissinger, Andrea, et al. (författare) Digital entrepreneurship and field conditions for institutional change - Investigating the enabling role of cities 2019 Ingår i: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 146, s. 877-886 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Digital entrepreneurship may result in institutional turbulence and new initiatives are frequently blocked by vested interest groups who posit superior financial and relational resources. In this paper, we explore the role of cities in facilitating digital entrepreneurship and overcoming institutional resistance to innovation. Drawing upon two historical case studies of digital entrepreneurship in the city of Stockholm along with an extensive material on the sharing economy in Sweden, our results suggest that cities offer an environment that is critical for digital entrepreneurship. The economic and technological diversity of a city may provide the field conditions required for institutional change to take place and to avoid regulatory capture.
33.	Grafström, Jonas, et al. (författare) Invention, innovation and diffusion in the European wind power sector 2016 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 114, s. 179-191 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract The purpose of this paper is to provide an economic analysis of the technology development patterns in the European wind power sector. The three classic Schumpeterian steps of technological development, invention, innovation and diffusion, are brought together to assess the relationship between these. Three econometric approaches are used, a negative binomial regression model for inventions approximated by patent counts, different learning curve model specifications that have been derived from a Cobb-Douglas cost function to address innovation, and a panel data fixed effect regression for the diffusion model. We suggest an integrated perspective of the technological development process where possible interaction effects between the different models are tested. The dataset covers the time period 1991–2008 in the eight core wind power countries in Western Europe. We find evidence of national and international knowledge spillovers in the invention model. The technology learning model results indicate that there exists global learning but also that the world market price of steel has been an important determinant of the development of wind power costs. In line with previous research, the diffusion model results indicate that investment costs have been an important determinant of the development of installed wind power capacity. The results also point towards the importance of natural gas prices and feed-in tariffs as vital factors for wind power diffusion.
34.	Guedes, M. J., et al. (författare) Family business, servitization, and performance : Evidence from Portugal 2022 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 185 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Drawing on the servitization and family business literature, we ask whether family governance improves or worsens performance through servitization. Given the preference to preserve socio-emotional wealth, servitization in family firms presents a double-edged sword. That is to say, a preference to preserve socio-emotional wealth facilitates the development of relationships with service-related stakeholders, but it may also prevent family firms from diluting their socio-emotional wealth through greater service-related collaboration with outsiders. In a sample of 35,329 manufacturing firms (13,755 family firms and 21,574 non-family firms from 2010 to 2018) in Portugal, we find that family firms have lower levels of servitization, and they achieve lower performance through servitization. These findings are robust to alternative performance measures and carry important implications for the servitization and family business literature.
35.	Göransson, Bo, et al. (författare) Introduction to the special issue on universities and social innovation 2021 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 173 Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
36.	Hacklin, Fredrik, et al. (författare) Coevolutionary cycles of convergence : An extrapolation from the ICT industry 2009 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 76:6, s. 723-736 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Convergence between technologies can be regarded as an increasingly emerging trend. and has received Particular attention in the coming-together of previously distinct products and Solutions within the information and communication technologies (ICT) industry. In previous research, the overall impact of the convergence phenomenon remains ambiguous. Whereas some scholars Suggest convergence to be associated with disintegration, entry and growth, others relate the phenomenon to opposite effects, Such as consolidation and shakeouts. This inconsistency in managerial conceptions on convergence formulates a need for an integrated understanding. Within a multi-case study approach, the convergence within ICT has been observed through examining the coevolution of actors in a converging environment, and patterns in innovation dynamics and managerial responses have been identified. In reflection with existing models of innovation cycles, a model for convergence innovation processes is elaborated and discussed. In particular, the reasoning within the ICT case set is transferred onto the Currently emerging entrepreneurial activities in the intersection between nano- and bio-technologies (NBT), resulting in a comparison between ICT and NBT convergences, and deriving recommendations from a retrospective to a predictive context.
37.	Haefner, Naomi, et al. (författare) Artificial intelligence and innovation management : A review, framework, and research agenda 2021 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 162 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Artificial Intelligence (AI) reshapes companies and how innovation management is organized. Consistent with rapid technological development and the replacement of human organization, AI may indeed compel management to rethink a company’s entire innovation process. In response, we review and explore the implications for future innovation management. Using ideas from the Carnegie School and the behavioral theory of the firm, we review the implications for innovation management of AI technologies and machine learning-based AI systems. We outline a framework showing the extent to which AI can replace humans and explain what is important to consider in making the transformation to the digital organization of innovation. We conclude our study by exploring directions for future research. Â© 2020 The Author(s)
38.	Haefner, Naomi, et al. (författare) Implementing and scaling artificial intelligence: A review, framework, and research agenda 2023 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 197 Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract Artificial intelligence (AI) will have a substantial impact on firms in virtually all industries. Without guidance on how to implement and scale AI, companies will be outcompeted by the next generation of highly innovative and competitive companies that manage to incorporate AI into their operations. Research shows that competition is fierce and that there is a lack of frameworks to implement and scale AI successfully. This study begins to address this gap by providing a systematic review and analysis of different approaches by companies to using AI in their organizations. Based on these experiences, we identify key components of implementing and scaling AI in organizations and propose phases of implementing and scaling AI in firms.
39.	Hammerschmidt, Jonas, et al. (författare) Professional football clubs and empirical evidence from the COVID-19 crisis : Time for sport entrepreneurship? 2021 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 165 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has spread worldwide in a short period and has developed into one of the biggest public health issues of the last decade. The actions initiated by governments to minimize person-to-person contact have also severely affected professional football clubs (PFCs) in the season 2019/20. Given the role of football in Europe, football clubs gained massive public and political attention during the COVID-19 crisis. Based on an exploratory multiple case study approach involving PFCs from five European football leagues, this study investigates the responses of these clubs to the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings show the relevance of solidarity with certain stakeholders during the pandemic, but also reveal the fragility of PFCs due to their financial structure and underdeveloped managerial and entrepreneurial strategies to cope with the crisis. This study contributes theoretically and empirically to the literature on the entrepreneurial behavior and crisis management of elite sport organizations and illustrates a holistic map of a dense, high solidary stakeholder network.
40.	Heger, Tobias, et al. (författare) Networked foresight : The case of EIT ICT Labs 2015 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 101, s. 147-164 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract The objective of this article is to explore the value of networked foresight: foresight conducted in innovation networks for the benefit of the network and its partners with active contributions from the partners. Strategic management, specifically the dynamic capabilities approach and vast literature on corporate and strategic foresight argue that deficiencies like one-dimensionality, narrow-sightedness and myopia of closed corporate processes are remedied by incorporating external sources. A broad knowledge base promises to especially benefit foresight in multiple ways. Thus, created an analytical framework that integrates the dynamic capabilities approach with existing results on potential value contributions of foresight, enriched with existing findings in networked foresight and organizational design in the light increasing importance of inter-organizational networks. We conducted a series of interviews and a survey among foresight practitioners in a network to explore the perceived value proposition of networked foresight for the network partners and the network itself. The analysis is based on data drawn from the EIT ICT Labs network of large industry corporations, small-and-medium sized companies, and academic and research institutes. Our study shows that network partners use the results primarily for sensing activities, i.e. data collection and to a lesser extend activity initiation. More sensitive and fundamental organizational aspects such as strategy and decision-making or path-dependency are less affected. Especially SMEs may benefit substantially from network approaches to foresight whereas MNEs are more confident in their existing corporate foresight processes and results. The value for the network itself is substantial and goes beyond value creation potential for companies as discussed in literature. The development of a shared vision—relatable to organizational learning and reconfiguration capabilities—was identified as particularly valuable for the network.
41.	Heredia Pérez, Jorge A., et al. (författare) Impact of competition from unregistered firms on R&D investment by industrial sectors in emerging economies 2018 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 133, s. 179-189 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract This research evaluates the impact of competition from unregistered firms on R&D investment by formal firms in emerging economies by considering their industrial sector and institutional factors, such as intellectual property rights. We performed a study using the propensity score matching approach and the World Bank Enterprise Survey of 16 Latin American emerging economies. We observed that the R&D investment response of formal firms varies according to the typology of industrial sectors. Supplier-dominated industries reduce investments in R&D when confronted with the informal sector. However, science-based, specialized suppliers and scale-intensive industries do not alter their investments. In addition, the level of intellectual property (e.g., IPRI) modifies the effect of the informal sector on R&D investment. Formal firms reduce their investments in R&D when the IPRI environment is underdeveloped. This reduction does not occur in highly developed IPRI environments. We also discuss the finding's theoretical and practical implications and suggest avenues for future research.
42.	Heshmati, Almas, et al. (författare) Technical change and total factor productivity growth : The case of Chinese provinces 2011 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 78:4, s. 575-590 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract In the literature technical change (TC) is mostly assumed to be exogenous and specified as a function of the time trend or time dummies. However, some exogenous external factors other than time can also affect TC. In this paper we model TC via time trend (external non-economic) as well as other exogenous (external economic) factors (technology shifters). For this we define technology indices based on the external economic factors and the time trend. The specification of production function is then amended to accommodate these technology indices which are not necessarily separable from the traditional inputs. That is, these technology indices allow for non-neutral shift in the production function. In doing so we are able to decompose TC (a component of TFP change) into two parts. One part is driven by time and the other part is related to producer-specific external economic factors. The latter can further be decomposed into each external economic factors. The empirical model uses panel data on Chinese provinces. We identify a number of key technology shifters and their effect on technical change and TFP growth of provinces are examined. Â© 2010 Elsevier Inc.
43.	Hillman, Karl, 1978, et al. (författare) Exploring technology paths: The development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden 2007–2020 2008 Ingår i: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 75:8, s. 1279-1302 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract By using socio-technical scenarios, we investigate how present policy choices may affect the development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden. One important choice for policy lies in the balance between general tax exemptions stimulating the market for alternative fuels, and funding of research and development more directly promoting new technology. The implications of this choice are illustrated with four diverging development paths until 2020. In the market-oriented scenarios, we illustrate consequences of breaking the dominance of entrenched technologies and demonstrating a growing market potential for alternatives, but also the risks with a large focus on first generation renewable fuels. In the technology-oriented scenarios, we point out the value of keeping variety among niches in this stage of the transition. In conclusion, if policy is implemented without taking the dynamic forces within the system into account, there is a risk that any measure leads the system into a dead end. But if policy strives to balance the development in different parts of the technological system while making use of various prevailing forces of change, a multitude of different efforts can contribute to the development of a more sustainable transport system. © 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
44.	Hurmekoski, Elias, et al. (författare) Context, drivers, and future potential for wood-frame multi-story construction in Europe 2015 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 99, s. 181-196 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Compared to many manufacturing industries, there have been few major improvements over the past few decades in the productivity, profitability, or the environmental impact of construction. However, driven by institutional changes, promotion campaigns, and technological development in the 1990s, novel industrial wood-frame multi-story construction (WMC) practices have been emerging in some European countries. The aim of the study is to explore the WMC market potential in Europe by combining two complementary approaches: Top-down scenario analysis and bottom-up innovation diffusion analysis. The results show that the WMC diffusion is heavily dependent on the regulatory framework and the structure of the construction industry. The risk-averse nature of the construction value chain resisting the uptake of new practices appears to be a more significant hindrance for the future market potential of WMC, compared to the possible competition from alternative construction practices. It would require both increasing competition within the WMC sector and increasing co-operation between wood product suppliers and the construction sector to attract investments, to reduce costs, and to make the WMC practices more credible throughout the construction value chain.
45.	Höjer, Mattias, 1966-, et al. (författare) Backcasting images of the future city-Time and space for sustainable development in Stockholm 2011 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 78:5, s. 819-834 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract This paper presents and discusses a backcasting study for Stockholm 2050. The focus is on developing images of a future where Stockholm citizens have sustainable energy use-here defined as a 60% reduction per capita over a 50-year period. The perspective is that of households, so all energy is allocated to individuals' activities rather than being discussed from a sector perspective. Six images of the future are developed by combining a space dimension (three versions of changes in urban structure) and a time dimension (two versions of people's life tempo). Added to this is technological development, so that the images of the future illustrate how combinations of planning, behavioural change and technological development could lead to sustainable energy use.
46.	Jansson, Fredrik, et al. (författare) Democratic revolutions as institutional innovation diffusion : rapid adoption and survival of democracy 2013 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - New York : Elsevier BV. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 80:8, s. 1546-1556 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Recent ‘democratic revolutions’ in Islamic countries call for a re-consideration of transitions to and from democracy. Transitions to democracy have often been considered the outcome of socio-economic modernization and therefore slow and incremental processes. But as a recent study has made clear, in the last century, transitions to democracy have mainly occurred through rapid leaps rather than slow and incremental steps. Here, we therefore apply an innovation and systems perspective and consider transitions to democracy as processes of institutional, and therefore systemic, innovation adoption. We show that transitions to democracy starting before 1900 lasted for an average of 50 years and a median of 56 years, while transitions originating later took an average of 4.6 years and a median of 1.7 years. However, our results indicate that the survival time of democratic regimes is longer in cases where the transition periods have also been longer, suggesting that patience paid in previous democratizations. We identify a critical ‘consolidation-preparing’ transition period of 12 years. Our results also show that in cases where the transitions have not been made directly from autocracy to democracy, there are no main institutional paths towards democracy. Instead, democracy seems reachable from a variety of directions. This is in line with the analogy of diffusion of innovations at the nation systems level, for which assumptions are that potential adopter systems may vary in susceptibility over time. The adoption of the institutions of democracy therefore corresponds to the adoption of a new political communications standard for a nation, in this case the innovation of involving in principle all adult citizens on an equal basis.
47.	Johnson, Prince Chacko, et al. (författare) Digital innovation and the effects of artificial intelligence on firms’ research and development – Automation or augmentation, exploration or exploitation? 2022 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 179 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Digitalization has altered many assumptions underpinning research on innovation management. At the early innings of exploring how digital innovation management stands out, there is a need for further studies in this area. Previous research on how firms use artificial intelligence has distinguished between automation and augmentation of human activities. In this paper, we explore how firms implement artificial intelligence within research and development. Utilizing an international news database spanning 956 articles from 122 newspapers published in 2020, we find that artificial intelligence is primarily adopted to augment human activities (55%) within research and development, rather than to automate matters (11%). We observe differences across sectors where automation is more common in government, information and communication technology (ICT), and technology and software. Our systematic coding shows that artificial intelligence is primarily adopted for exploration research and development (64%), rather than exploitation (5%). Based on these findings, we conclude that research and development from artificial intelligence primarily focuses on novel markets and areas of operations, rather than enhancing existing product markets and activities. Moreover, it augments human labor rather than replaces it; hence, job losses related to artificial intelligence do not seem to be taking place within research and development.
48.	Kanda, Wisdom, 1985-, et al. (författare) Drivers for and barriers to the diffusion of biogas technologies through export 2021 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 168 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract The technology diffusion literature has extensively analysed drivers for and barriers to the adoption of renewable energy technologies. However, there are relatively few studies that analyse drivers and barriers from the perspective of renewable energy technology suppliers. An analysis of the supplier-side is complementary to demand-side studies as policy makers seek to stimulate the international diffusion of renewable energy technologies. The international diffusion of renewable energy technologies is necessary for countries to reach their often-ambitious targets regarding independence from fossil-based energy sources. Thus, the aim of this article is to analyse the drivers for and barriers to the international diffusion of renewable energy technologies from the perspective of technology suppliers. In doing so, a survey was conducted amongst 85 biogas technology suppliers in Sweden, with a 34% response rate. Using a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA), we analysed differences between their perceived barriers and drivers in the international diffusion of biogas technologies through export. Our findings suggest the need for technology and market-specific export promotion initiatives to complement the generic initiatives available for all exporters and make them more effective.
49.	Kim, T. -Y, et al. (författare) Decelerating agricultural society : Theoretical and historical perspectives 2010 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 77:3, s. 479-499 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract In general, societies are divided into agricultural and industrial types. This study presents theoretical and historical perspectives on decelerating agricultural societies. Agricultural demand and supply play major roles in society development. Three descriptions of an agricultural society and theories of its deceleration patterns are presented: the neo-classical production function, stage theory, and induced innovation. Two important cases of decelerating agricultural societies and their ultimate replacement by industrial societies, medieval Europe and nineteenth- and twentieth-century United States, are examined. The limitations of decelerating agricultural societies with a focus on structural problems, impacts of industrial structure, and problems of agriculture in market and non-market areas, are also discussed. The position of agriculture as described by economic development theory is established by analyzing the stages of economic development, the theory of structural change, and the theory of leading industry. Finally, the transition from an agricultural to a commercial society is described with a focus on the formation, development, value creation, and structural limitations of a commercial society. ©2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
50.	Kishita, Yusuke, et al. (författare) Consolidating backcasting : A design framework towards a users' guide 2024 Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 202, s. 123285- Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Backcasting has become a widely applied approach to address sustainability challenges when transformative changes are required. However, dispersed and contextualized knowledge of backcasting methodologies and practices needs to be systematized, codified, and synthesized to support researchers, commissioners, practitioners, and stakeholders in backcasting projects. In this paper, we address these issues by (i) concisely reviewing the evolution and current body of literature on backcasting and how this relates to other major types of futures and scenario studies and (ii) developing a design framework for researchers and practitioners that systematically covers all methodological choices with regard to key guiding questions to develop a backcasting methodology for a particular backcasting project. The developed design framework is based on four parts, characterized by the interrogatives when, which, how, and what, creating a comprehensive framework for describing a backcasting study.

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