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1.
  • Abou Rafee, Sameh Adib, et al. (författare)
  • Hydrologic response to large-scale land use and cover changes in the Upper Paraná River Basin between 1985 and 2015
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 21:4
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The Upper Paraná River Basin (UPRB) has undergone remarkable land use and cover changes (LUCC) in recent decades. This paper analyses the hydrologic response to LUCC in the UPRB between 1985 and 2015, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The impacts of LUCC were examined for annual, wet, and dry season (both during calibrated and validated periods) between 1984 and 2015. The most substantial LUCC were the extensive reduction of the cerrado and the expansion of agriculture areas. The simulations demonstrated that the LUCC caused important changes in basin hydrology. For instance, an increase (decrease) of surface runoff in the wet (dry) season at most UPRB subbasins was observed. In addition, the simulation results revealed a reduction in actual evapotranspiration and an increase in soil moisture in the annual and wet season. Consequently, most of the major rivers of the basin presented an increase (decrease) in their discharge in the wet (dry) period. The major changes in the hydrologic components were observed in the central-western and southern parts of the UPRB. At the river mouth of the UPRB, the LUCC led to an increase in long-term mean discharge values of 4.2% and 1.1% in the annual and wet season and a decrease of about 2.2% in the dry period. This study provides a large-scale modeling and valuable information that could be used to improve planning and sustainable management of future water resources within the basin.
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2.
  • Andersson, Mikael, et al. (författare)
  • Life-style services and yield from south-Swedish forests adaptively managed against the risk of wind damage – a simulation study
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 15, s. 1489-1500
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We estimated the effect of adapting forest management to reduce the risk of wind damage under climate change on life-style services and forest yield in a south-Swedish forest using an integrated modelling approach. The ECHAM5/CCLM models had been used to produce a reference climate and a climate change scenario for the A1B emission scenario. Using the FinnFor model we estimated the effect of the climate change scenario on the site index for three common commercial tree species for the period 2001-2100. The adjusted site index was applied in projections of the forest using the Forest Time Machine model. The WINDA-GALES model was used to calculate the probability of wind damage in simulated future states of the forest. Effects of increasing forest owner motivation to take measures to adapt to climate change were simulated by comparing the effects of introducing adaptive measures in years 2001 and 2051, respectively. These adaptive measures had been identified in consultation with stakeholders. In the simulations, adaptive regimes resulted in generally increased yield, increased hunting potential and a higher number of forest management operations to be carried out, although other aspects of recreation services were reduced. The net return remained unaffected by most of the adaptive forest management regimes. The simulations were made without accounting for effects of predicted wind damage on the states of the forest. Forest owners perceiving increased risk of wind damage but also risk to their life-style would have to balance adaptive measures between these risks. We conclude that adapting forest management to reduce the risk of wind damage may impact on life-style services. Hence, this may affect the process of adaptation to an increasing risk of wind damage in southern Sweden.
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3.
  • Baird, Julia, et al. (författare)
  • Collaborative governance for climate change adaptation in Canada : experimenting with adaptive co-management
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 16:3, s. 747-758
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The search for strategies to address 'super wicked problems' such as climate change is gaining urgency, and a collaborative governance approach, and adaptive co-management in particular, is increasingly recognized as one such strategy. However, the conditions for adaptive co-management to emerge and the resulting network structures and relational patterns remain unclear in the literature. To address these identified needs, this study examines social relationships from a network perspective while initiating a collaborative multiactor initiative aimed to develop into adaptive co-management for climate change adaptation, an action research project undertaken in the Niagara region of Canada. The project spanned 1 year, and a longitudinal analysis of participants' networks and level of participation in the process was performed. Evidence of support for climate change adaptation from the process included the development of deliberative and adaptive responses to opportunities presented to the group and the development of a strong subgroup of participants where decision-making was centered. However, the complexity of the challenge of addressing climate change, funding constraints, competing initiatives, and the lack of common views among participants may have contributed to the group, highlighting the finding that beneficial network structural features and relational patterns are necessary but not sufficient condition for the development of an adaptive co-management process. The context of climate change adaptation may require a different social network structure and processes than other contexts for adaptive co-management to occur, and there may be limitations to adaptive co-management for dealing with super wicked problems.
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4.
  • Barron, Jennie (författare)
  • Towards environmentally sound intensification pathways for dairy development in the Tanga region of Tanzania
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 20
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The gap between milk demand and domestic supply in Tanzania is large and projected to widen. Meeting such demand through local production of affordable milk presents an opportunity to improve the welfare of producers and market agents through the income and employment generated along the value chain (VC). Efforts to maximize milk yields, production and profitability need to be balanced with long-term sustainability. We combined environmental and economic ex-ante impact assessments of four intervention scenarios for two production systems in the Tanzanian dairy VC using the CLEANED model and an economic feasibility analysis. Intervention scenarios propose increases in milk production through (i) animal genetic improvement, (ii) improved feed, (iii) improved animal health and (iv) a package combining all interventions. Results show that economically feasible farm-level productivity increases of up to 140% go hand-in-hand with increased resource-use efficiency and up to 50% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensities. Absolute increases in water, land and nitrogen requirements in mixed crop-livestock systems call for careful management of stocks and quality of these resources. An overall rise in GHG emissions is expected, with a maximum of 53% increase associated with an 89% increase in milk supply at VC level. The CLEANED tool proved effective to evaluate livestock interventions that improve incomes and food security with minimal environmental footprint. Here, our simulations suggest that due to current low productivity, the greatest efficiency gains in combination with relatively low increases in total GHG emissions can be made in the extensive agro-pastoral dairy systems, which represent the majority of herds.
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5.
  • Barthel, Roland, 1967, et al. (författare)
  • Global change impacts on the Upper Danube Catchment (Central Europe): a study of participatory modeling
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 16:6, s. 1595-1611
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Participatory modeling (PM) has become an essential concept in environmental impact assessment and planning in the field of water resources. In this paper, we focus on the use of PM to support the development of the integrated regional modeling system DANUBIA as a scientific concept to analyze the previously unknown impacts of global change, i.e. the combined effects of climate, demographic, economic, social and ecological change, on the Upper Danube Catchment (Germany). We use this case study to examine the specific conditions for PM in the field of complex integrated models on a regional scale. We describe the stepwise PM process and discuss the respective results, focusing on (i) the stakeholder dialogue’s contribution in supporting the development of new, complex modeling systems, particularly on a regional scale, (ii) conditions of stakeholder involvement in issues related to the distant future, such as climate change impacts on regional water availability, and (iii) limitations of PM and scientists’ motivation to carry out participatory research at all. We conclude that the PM process was not entirely successful in improving the scientific quality and practical applicability of the developed models because the process goals were manifold and overambitious, and the definition of the problem of “global change impacts on a regional scale” was too weak and uncertain to allow for a clear common objective of modelers and stakeholders. We claim that there is a lack of incentives for scientists, particularly natural scientists, to commit to PM activities.
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6.
  • Barua, Anamika, et al. (författare)
  • Climate change and poverty: building resilience of rural mountain communities in South Sikkim, Eastern Himalaya, India
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 14:1, s. 267-280
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The rural mountain communities have long faced challenges from a range of social, economic, political and environmental factors and the threat from these factors has only intensified due to the current climate change. This study was conducted in South Sikkim, a mountain region located in the Indian Eastern Himalaya, to get a deeper insight of the multitude of barriers and stresses that a poor rural mountain community experiences. The purpose of the study was to get community’s perception on the kind of interventions that they consider important to lift them out of poverty and enhance their resilience to manage climate risk. The analysis is based on focus group discussions and household survey, using a multidimensional poverty assessment tool. The study highlights that the vulnerability of the study region to climate change is not concentrated to physical or geographical factors alone, but mostly to the socio-economic factors like lack of access to education, health care, limited livelihood opportunities, limited resources, etc. People consider that these non-climatic factors act as barriers for them to overcome poverty, contribute to their weak resilience, and make it extremely difficult for them to manage the risk posed by climate change. The study therefore suggests that it is of utmost importance that the interventions are planned in ways that address the multidimensional poverty in the region which in turn will enhance community’s inherent capacity to adapt to current as well as future climate risk.
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7.
  • Baumann, Matthias, et al. (författare)
  • Land-use change in the Caucasus during and after the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 15:8, s. 1703-1716
  • Tidskriftsartikel (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
    • Socioeconomic shocks can shape future land-use trajectories. Armed conflicts are an extreme form of a socioeconomic shock, but our understanding of how armed conflicts affect land-use change is limited. Our goal was to assess land-use changes related to the 1991–1994 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Caucasus region. We classified multi-temporal Landsat imagery, mapped land-use changes during and after the conflict, and applied matching statistics to isolate the effect of the conflict from other potential drivers of land change. In our study area, local land-use changes were dominated by high farmland abandonment rates of more than 60 % in the conflict zone. Concomitantly, we found a substantial displacement of agricultural activities into nearby Azerbaijani territory (>30 % of all abandoned land in the conflict zone was offset by new agricultural areas on Azerbaijani territory), likely as a consequence of refugee migrations. After the armed conflict ceased, only 17 % of the abandoned fields were re-cultivated, indicating that the land-use system may have transformed profoundly. Our results showed that an armed conflict can have substantial impact on land use. Spatially, our results indicated that armed conflicts may cause lasting land-use change in areas distant from the actual battlegrounds, representing an example of a distant linkage in land systems, in our case caused by refugee movements. Temporally, armed conflicts appear to be able to cause a transition of the land-use system into a new state, akin to other drastic socioeconomic shocks.
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8.
  • Bodin, Örjan, et al. (författare)
  • Working at the "speed of trust" : pre-existing and emerging social ties in wildfire responder networks in Sweden and Canada
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 19:8, s. 2353-2364
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The frequency and severity of natural hazards are predicted to increase with climate change. Collaboration among actors across scales and organizational boundaries is essential to address this escalation. Pre-existing social networks are generally considered a catalyst enabling actors to more quickly address collective action problems. However, empirically derived knowledge about if, how, and why pre-established social networks facilitate effective collaborations in addressing natural hazards is scarce. We use survey data from crisis responders of large-scale wildfires in Sweden and Canada to investigate factors that shape actors’ (i) ability and willingness to form new social ties with other actors and (ii) propensity to “activate” pre-existing social ties. Our results show that many new social ties were established in both events, but also that pre-existing ties comprised a considerable proportion (54–82%) of all ties in use. Using exponential random graph models for temporal networks, we demonstrate that two actors that are working with or have previously worked with a common third actor are more likely to activate pre-existing social ties. Further, new social ties tend to be formed around a few central actors, whereas the opposite seems to apply for the activation of pre-existing ties. The extent to which actors consider others’ organizational affiliation, formal role, previous experience, and level of professionalization differs between the cases. We suggest these tie formation and activation differences can be attributed to diverging organizational contexts varying in their reliance upon self-organizing versus command-and-control approaches.
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9.
  • Bruckmeier, Karl, 1952 (författare)
  • Problems of cross-scale coastal management in Scandinavia
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 14:6, s. 2151-2160
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Transdisciplinary knowledge integration and cross-scale management remain challenges in coastal management after several decades of research and experience with integrated and sustainable coastal management. The aim of this paper is to identify requirements for knowledge integration and development of multi-scale approaches to coastal management through reviewing and re-analysing three Swedish-European research projects: the SUCOZOMA project about sustainable coastal zone management, the FRAP project about conflicts between coastal fishery and species protection, and the SECOA project about solutions to contrasts in coastal metropolitan areas. The strategy of adaptive governance is considered in the light of its ability to assess knowledge requirements for sustainable resource management under conditions of climate change.
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11.
  • Camenisch, Chantal, et al. (författare)
  • Extreme heat and drought in 1473 and their impacts in Europe in the context of the early 1470s
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 20:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Droughts and heatwaves are both dangerous natural hazards with a potential significant impact on human societies. In order to understand these hazards, it is important to examine such extreme events in the past. During the years 1471 to 1474, warm and dry weather conditions are described in most parts of Europe. Until now, these extraordinary years have not been examined in depth. Moreover, in spring 1473, a great drought and heat occurred in Europe. This heatwave facilitated a fast phenological development. During the summer and the autumn, temperatures were unusually high, and extremely dry weather conditions continued. In many places, the harvest began remarkably early, and there was abundant wine of a good quality. Fruit trees even bloomed for the second time in autumn. The heat and drought had a considerable impact on the environment and also caused damage to agriculture and society, including water shortages, harvest failures and rising food prices. The weather conditions of the years from 1471 to 1474 were outstanding during the fifteenth century and the heatwave and drought, as well as impacts on environment, economy, and society in the year 1473, were comparable to-if not more severe-than those in the year 1540. Learning from past climate anomalies like the 1473 drought in Europe is important for evaluating more recent and future climate extremes under increasing anthropogenic pressure.
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12.
  • Carvalho, Raquel, et al. (författare)
  • Diversity of cattle raising systems and its effects over forest regrowth in a core region of cattle production in the Brazilian Amazon
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 20:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Roughly 60% of all deforested lands in the Brazilian Amazon are covered with pastures, putting cattle raising in evidence as a major driver of deforestation and also of forests' regrowth. Still, the role of cattle raising diversity in the landscape dynamics of this region remains poorly understood. To contribute to this discussion, we combined data from semi-structured interviews and quantitative spatially explicit methods to characterize and spatialize cattle raising systems and explore the effects of this diversity over secondary vegetation between 2004 and 2014 in Para, a hotspot of deforestation and core region of cattle production. We quantified the use of different pasture management strategies to classify small- and large-scale operations into systems with high or low impact against pastures' degradation. High-impact systems were mapped in regions with consolidated infrastructure and high accumulated deforestation, where they expanded. On the contrary, low-impact systems were more widespread and found near forest frontiers, shrinking over time. High-impact systems had less secondary vegetation, while under low-impact systems, as a result of strategies with little or no effect against degradation, the historical pattern of concentration of this cover prevailed. Better infrastructure and access to markets as well as higher accumulated deforestation are underlying conditions related to the emergence of intensification and, as it is still unclear whether intensification is indeed capable of sparing land, the expansion of intensive cattle raising systems has the potential to configure landscapes with reduced forested areas, either primary or secondary.
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13.
  • Chalov, Sergey, et al. (författare)
  • The Selenga River delta : a geochemical barrier protecting Lake Baikal waters
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 17:7, s. 2039-2053
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The protection of Lake Baikal and the planning of water management measures in the Selenga River Basin require a comprehensive understanding of the current state and functioning of the delta’s ecosystem and hydrogeochemical processes. This is particularly relevant in light of recent and expected future changes involving both the hydrology and water quality in the Lake Baikal basin causing spatiotemporal changes in water flow, morphology, and transport of sediments and metals in the Selenga River delta and thus impacting on delta barrier functions. The central part of the delta had been characterized by sediment storage, especially along the main channels, causing a continuous lift of the delta surface by about 0.75 cm/year−1. Theses morphological changes have a significant impact on hydrological conditions, with historical shifts in the bulk discharge from the left to the right parts of the delta which is distinguished by a relatively high density of wetlands. Regions with a high density of wetlands and small channels, in contrast to main channel regions, show a consistent pattern of considerable contaminant filtering and removal (between 77 and 99 % for key metals), during both high-flow and low-flow conditions. The removal is associated with a significant concentration increase (2–3 times) of these substances in the bottom sediment. In consequence, geomorphological processes, which govern the partitioning of flow between different channel systems, may therefore directly govern the barrier function of the delta.
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14.
  • Chopin, Pierre (författare)
  • Potential and constraints for applying the "4 per 1000 Initiative" in the Caribbean: the case of Guadeloupe
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 21
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • This paper assesses the feasibility of the 4 per 1000 initiative for agricultural soils in the tropics more specifically in Guadeloupe, as a representative case study of the Caribbean and other tropical regions. We used a locally adapted and calibrated model describing soil organic carbon dynamics under the impact of climate change and a broad range of scenarios combining increased use of organic amendments, reduced soil tillage, and increased land area for the local market. We found that, in its current state, only 26% of agricultural area could achieve a 4 parts per thousand year(-1) increase in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in the coming 30 years, due mainly to perennial cropping systems (sugarcane, banana, orchards) occupying soils with the lowest SOC stocks. Implementing reduced tillage with increased use of locally produced composts would increase the agricultural area reaching the 4 per 1000 target to 31%. However, at territory scale, all scenarios tested showed an annual decrease in SOC stocks varying from - 0.1 to - 3.2 parts per thousand. The limited area on which the 4 per 1000 target is feasible and generalized SOC losses were mainly linked to the current high SOC stocks in volcanic and calcareous soils on the island and lack of practices capable of further increasing C inputs in current cropping systems. We concluded that C sequestration potential in the Caribbean is rather limited and that increasing SOC stocks, even lower than 4 per 1000, should be the primary target in adaptation to climate change, by increasing the resilience of cropping systems based mainly on SOC-poor soils.
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15.
  • Coelho, Andréa, et al. (författare)
  • Rural landscapes and agrarian spaces under soybean expansion dynamics : a case study of the Santarém region, Brazilian Amazonia
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 21:4
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Following the boom of soybean production from 2000 to 2006 in the Santarém region of the Brazilian Amazon, the mechanized agricultural area remained stable, unlike other regions. Deforestation was controlled, but this initial expansion led to the restructuring of the agrarian space in the region. Given this scenario, we aimed to understand the mechanized agricultural expansion effects in the region by comparing the periods 1999-2007 and 2007-2015. Our hypothesis was that it impacted heterogeneous actors and land tenure categories. We combined multi-temporal land change maps derived from remote sensing to land tenure information to evaluate how land change transitions differed over time, both in public (traditional and sustainable use official settlements) and private areas. In private areas, we observed a 12% reduction in forest cover in 1999-2007 and a 2.5% reduction in 2007-2015. In sustainable use settlements, forest loss was only 3% and 2% in each period, respectively. Mechanized agriculture occupied areas of family farming (42%), secondary vegetation (20%), pasture (20%), and forest areas (18%). Family farming lost most of the area to other uses. Within settlements, the area of family farming increased by 50% at the expense of the forest area. We conclude that the rise and fall of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon hide multiple social and territorial processes. Understanding such dynamics is critical for establishing measures toward a sustainable future.
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16.
  • Conradt, Tobias, et al. (författare)
  • Cross-sectoral impacts of the 2018–2019 Central European drought and climate resilience in the German part of the Elbe River basin
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-378X .- 1436-3798. ; 23, s. 1-18
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The 2018–2019 Central European drought was probably the most extreme in Germany since the early sixteenth century. We assess the multiple consequences of the drought for natural systems, the economy and human health in the German part of the Elbe River basin, an area of 97,175 km2 including the cities of Berlin and Hamburg and contributing about 18% to the German GDP. We employ meteorological, hydrological and socio-economic data to build a comprehensive picture of the drought severity, its multiple effects and cross-sectoral consequences in the basin. Time series of different drought indices illustrate the severity of the 2018–2019 drought and how it progressed from meteorological water deficits via soil water depletion towards low groundwater levels and river runoff, and losses in vegetation productivity. The event resulted in severe production losses in agriculture (minus 20–40% for staple crops) and forestry (especially through forced logging of damaged wood: 25.1 million tons in 2018–2020 compared to only 3.4 million tons in 2015–2017), while other economic sectors remained largely unaffected. However, there is no guarantee that this socio-economic stability will be sustained in future drought events; this is discussed in the light of 2022, another dry year holding the potential for a compound crisis. Given the increased probability for more intense and long-lasting droughts in most parts of Europe, this example of actual cross-sectoral drought impacts will be relevant for drought awareness and preparation planning in other regions.
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17.
  • Cotte Poveda, A., et al. (författare)
  • CO2 emissions in German, Swedish and Colombian manufacturing industries
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 13:5, s. 979-988
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • This study evaluates and compares the trends in CO2 emissions for the manufacturing industries of three countries: two developed countries (Germany and Sweden) that have applied several measures to promote a shift towards a low-carbon economy and one developing country (Colombia) that has shown substantial improvements in the reduction of CO2 emissions. This analysis is conducted using panel data cointegration techniques to infer causality between CO2 emissions, production factors and energy sources. The results indicate a trend of producing more output with less pollution. The trends for these countries' CO2 emissions depend on investment levels, energy sources and economic factors. Furthermore, the trends in CO2 emissions indicate that there are emission level differences between the two developed countries and the developing country. Moreover, the study confirms that it is possible to achieve economic growth and sustainable development while reducing greenhouse gas emissions, as Germany and Sweden demonstrate. In the case of Colombia, it is important to encourage a reduction in CO2 emissions through policies that combine technical and economic instruments and incentivise the application of new technologies that promote clean and environmentally friendly processes.
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18.
  • Cumming, Graeme S., et al. (författare)
  • Research priorities for the sustainability of coral-rich western Pacific seascapes
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 23:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Nearly a billion people depend on tropical seascapes. The need to ensure sustainable use of these vital areas is recognised, as one of 17 policy commitments made by world leaders, in Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14 (‘Life below Water’) of the United Nations. SDG 14 seeks to secure marine sustainability by 2030. In a time of increasing social-ecological unpredictability and risk, scientists and policymakers working towards SDG 14 in the Asia–Pacific region need to know: (1) How are seascapes changing? (2) What can global society do about these changes? and (3) How can science and society together achieve sustainable seascape futures? Through a horizon scan, we identified nine emerging research priorities that clarify potential research contributions to marine sustainability in locations with high coral reef abundance. They include research on seascape geological and biological evolution and adaptation; elucidating drivers and mechanisms of change; understanding how seascape functions and services are produced, and how people depend on them; costs, benefits, and trade-offs to people in changing seascapes; improving seascape technologies and practices; learning to govern and manage seascapes for all; sustainable use, justice, and human well-being; bridging communities and epistemologies for innovative, equitable, and scale-crossing solutions; and informing resilient seascape futures through modelling and synthesis. Researchers can contribute to the sustainability of tropical seascapes by co-developing transdisciplinary understandings of people and ecosystems, emphasising the importance of equity and justice, and improving knowledge of key cross-scale and cross-level processes, feedbacks, and thresholds. 
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19.
  • Eilola, Salla, et al. (författare)
  • Perceptions on and impacts of environmental changes under multiple stressors : a case study from two communities in northern Fennoscandia
  • 2024
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Nature. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 24:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Against the backcloth of particularly fast environmental change in the Arctic, this study juxtaposes local perceptions of environmental change in two communities in the boreal zone of Northern Europe with scientific data. The local knowledge was gathered through an online participatory mapping survey among the two communities and scientific evidence was gathered from various peer-reviewed and official monitoring sources. Local knowledge of environmental change in Savukoski (Finland) resembles that in Jokkmokk (Sweden). Most perceived changes are in line with scientific studies, public discourse, and local concerns in the Arctic. What differs, however, is the degree of correspondence between local and scientific knowledge on certain phenomena: some dynamics are well documented in both local and scientific observations whereas other dynamics require more nuanced scientific research, particularly considering their relevance for local livelihoods. Among these are: berry yields, the abundance of mosquitoes and other Nematocera, peatland thaw and frost, and changes in river and lake ice conditions. It is noteworthy that in both Savukoski and Jokkmokk, for many people the most impactful changes are caused by resource extraction rather than climate change. Local concerns and perceptions of environmental change are not all shared nor easily translate into adaptation strategies, but nonetheless they have clear policy implications.
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21.
  • Elsler, Laura G., et al. (författare)
  • Social relationship dynamics mediate climate impacts on income inequality : evidence from the Mexican Humboldt squid fishery
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 21:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Small-scale fisheries are critically important for livelihoods around the world, particularly in tropical regions. However, climate variability and anthropogenic climate change may seriously impact small-scale fisheries by altering the abundance and distribution of target species. Social relationships between fishery users, such as fish traders, can determine how each individual responds and is affected by changes in fisheries. These informal cooperative and competitive relationships provide access, support, and incentives for fishing and affect the distribution of benefits. Yet, individuals' actions and impacts on individuals are often the primary focus of the economic analyses informing small-scale fisheries' formal management. This focus dismisses relevant social relationships. We argue that this leads to a disconnect between reality and its model representation used in formal management, which may reduce formal fisheries management's efficiency and efficacy and potentially trigger adverse consequences. Here, we examine this argument by comparing the predictions of a simple bioeconomic fishery model with those of a social-ecological model that incorporates the dynamics of cooperative relationships between fish traders. We illustrate model outcomes using an empirical case study in the Mexican Humboldt squid fishery. We find that (1) the social-ecological model with relationship dynamics substantially improves accuracy in predicting observed fishery variables to the simple bioeconomic model. (2) Income inequality outcomes are associated with changes in cooperative trade relationships. When environmental temperature is included in the model as a driver of species production dynamics, we find that climate-driven temperature variability drives a decline in catch that, in turn, reduce fishers' income. We observe an offset of this loss in income by including cooperative relationships between fish traders (oligopoly) in the model. These relationships break down following species distribution changes and result in an increase in prices fishers receive. Finally, (3) our social-ecological model simulations show that the current fishery development program, which seeks to increase fishers' income through an increase in domestic market demand, is supported by predictions from the simple bioeconomic model, may increase income inequality between fishers and traders. Our findings highlight the real and urgent need to re-think fisheries management models in the context of small-scale fisheries and climate change worldwide to encompass social relationship dynamics.
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22.
  • Eriksson, Kerstin, et al. (författare)
  • “This community will grow” — little concern for future wildfires in a dry and increasingly hotter Swedish rural community
  • 2024
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 24:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Increased risk of wildfires is often highlighted in media coverage of climate change in the Nordic countries. How an increased risk is reflected in the concerns and adaptive measures within the most likely affected communities is nevertheless not known. This study investigates concerns and adaptation to wildfires in a rural community in south-eastern Sweden. The comparatively dry study area has a history of frequent but often low-consequence wildfires and is projected to experience Sweden’s largest increase in severe fire weather towards 2100. Through narratives, this study elucidates potential wildfire concerns in this area and motivations behind adaptation measures. The narratives are compared to a physical causal network extracted from the literature on fires and their consequences in the region. Residents foresee an increased wildfire risk but do not consider it a threat to the future well-being of the community. Forest owners and homeowners express low commitment in preventive or adaptive measures. Instead, contrasting the reality of the twentieth century, the fire service is currently considered to be responsible for both preventing and suppressing fires. This attitude is attributed to the lack of severe implications from the generally well-managed fires in the region. Actions for prevention and adaptation seem triggered by media attention or experience from real high-consequence events occurring elsewhere, rather than local wildfire occurrence or climate change projections. © The Author(s) 2024.
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23.
  • Ferdous, Md Ruknul, et al. (författare)
  • The interplay between structural flood protection, population density, and flood mortality along the Jamuna River, Bangladesh
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : SPRINGER HEIDELBERG. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 20:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Levees protect floodplain areas from frequent flooding, but they can paradoxically contribute to more severe flood losses. The construction or reinforcement of levees can attract more assets and people in flood-prone area, thereby increasing the potential flood damage when levees eventually fail. Moreover, structural protection measures can generate a sense of complacency, which can reduce preparedness, thereby increasing flood mortality rates. We explore these phenomena in the Jamuna River floodplain in Bangladesh. In this study area, different levels of flood protection have co-existed alongside each other since the 1960s, with a levee being constructed only on the right bank and its maintenance being assured only in certain places. Primary and secondary data on population density, human settlements, and flood fatalities were collected to carry out a comparative analysis of two urban areas and two rural areas with different flood protection levels. We found that the higher the level of flood protection, the higher the increase of population density over the past decades as well as the number of assets exposed to flooding. Our results also show that flood mortality rates associated with the 2017 flooding in Bangladesh were lower in the areas with lower protection level. This empirical analysis of the unintended consequences of structural flood protection is relevant for the making of sustainable policies of disaster risk reduction and adaptation to climate change in rapidly changing environments.
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24.
  • Feurdean, Angelica, et al. (författare)
  • Long-term land-cover/use change in a traditional farming landscape in Romania inferred from pollen data, historical maps and satellite images
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 17:8, s. 2193-2207
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Traditional farming landscapes in the temperate zone that have persisted for millennia can be exceptionally species-rich and are therefore key conservation targets. In contrast to Europe’s West, Eastern Europe harbours widespread traditional farming landscapes, but drastic socio-economic and political changes in the twentieth century are likely to have impacted these landscapes profoundly. We reconstructed long-term land-use/cover and biodiversity changes over the last 150 years in a traditional farming landscape of outstanding species diversity in Transylvania. We used the Regional Estimates of Vegetation Abundance from Large Sites model applied to a pollen record from the Transylvanian Plain and a suite of historical and satellite-based maps. We documented widespread changes in the extent and location of grassland and cropland, a loss of wood pastures as well as a gradual increase in forest extent. Land management in the socialist period (1947–1989) led to grassland expansion, but grassland diversity decreased due to intensive production. Land-use intensity has declined since the collapse of socialism in 1989, resulting in widespread cropland abandonment and conversion to grassland. However, these trends may be temporary due to both ongoing woody encroachment as well as grassland management intensification in productive areas. Remarkably, only 8% of all grasslands existed throughout the entire time period (1860–2010), highlighting the importance of land-use history when identifying target areas for conservation, given that old-growth grasslands are most valuable in terms of biodiversity. Combining datasets from different disciplines can yield important additional insights into dynamic landscape and biodiversity changes, informing conservation actions to maintain these species-rich landscapes in the longer term.
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25.
  • Fischer, Sandra, et al. (författare)
  • Present to future sediment transport of the Brahmaputra River : reducing uncertainty in predictions and management
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 17:2, s. 515-526
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The Brahmaputra River in South Asia carries one of the world's highest sediment loads, and the sediment transport dynamics strongly affect the region's ecology and agriculture. However, present understanding of sediment conditions and dynamics is hindered by limited access to hydrological and geomorphological data, which impacts predictive models needed in management. We here synthesize reported peer-reviewed data relevant to sediment transport and perform a sensitivity analysis to identify sensitive and uncertain parameters, using the one-dimensional model HEC-RAS, considering both present and future climatic conditions. Results showed that there is considerable uncertainty in openly available estimates (260-720 Mt yr(-1)) of the annual sediment load for the Brahmaputra River at its downstream Bahadurabad gauging station (Bangladesh). This may aggravate scientific impact studies of planned power plant and reservoir construction in the region, as well as more general effects of ongoing land use change and climate change. We found that data scarcity on sediment grain size distribution, water discharge, and Manning's roughness coefficient had the strongest controls on the modelled sediment load. However, despite uncertainty in absolute loads, we showed that predicted relative changes, including a future increase in sediment load by about 40 % at Bahadurabad by 2075-2100, were consistent across multiple model simulations. Nevertheless, for the future scenarios we found that parameter uncertainty almost doubled for water discharge and river geometry, highlighting that improved information on these parameters could greatly advance the abilities to predict and manage current and future sediment dynamics in the Brahmaputra river basin.
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26.
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27.
  • Frolova, Natalia L., et al. (författare)
  • Runoff fluctuations in the Selenga River Basin
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 17:7, s. 1965-1976
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The Selenga River has historically provided 50% of the total freshwater water input to the Lake Baikal, transporting substances and pollutants that can considerably impact the unique lake ecosystem. In the context of on-going regional to global change, we here aim at identifying and understanding mechanisms behind spatial and temporal variability and trends in the flow of the Selenga River and its tributaries, based on hydrological and meteorological station data (since the 1930s), remote sensing, and statistical analyses. Results show that the flow of the Selenga River exhibits cycles with phases of high flows lasting 12 to 17 years and phases of low flows that historically lasted for about 7 years. However, despite an asynchronous behavior between right-bank tributaries and left-bank tributaries, the flow of the Selenga River near its delta at Lake Baikal has now been low (30% below the 1934-1975 average) for as long as 20 years, due to reduced input from precipitation, particularly during the summer season. Observed decreases in annual maximum hourly flows and decreases in annual minimum 30-day flows are consistent with increasing activation of the groundwater system due to thawing permafrost, and higher winter temperatures that support increased winter flows by preventing rivers to freeze from top to bottom. These recent and relatively large changes have implications for regional water planning and management, including the planned large-scale hydropower expansion in the upper part of the Selenga River Basin.
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28.
  • Gabbert, Silke, et al. (författare)
  • Uncertainty analysis in integrated assessment: the users’ perspective. Regional Environmental Change
  • 2010
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 10:2, s. 131-143
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Integrated Assessment (IA) models aim at providing information- and decision-support to complex problems. This paper argues that uncertainty analysis in IA models should be user-driven in order to strengthen science–policy interaction. We suggest an approach to uncertainty analysis that starts with investigating model users’ demands for uncertainty information. These demands are called “uncertainty information needs”. Identifying model users’ uncertainty information needs allows focusing the analysis on those uncertainties which users consider relevant and meaningful. As an illustrative example, we discuss the case of examining users’ uncertainty information needs in the SEAMLESS Integrated Framework (SEAMLESS-IF), an IA model chain for assessing and comparing alternative agricultural and environmental policy options. The most important user group of SEAMLESS-IF are policy experts at the European and national level. Uncertainty information needs of this user group were examined in an interactive process during the development of SEAMLESS-IF and by using a questionnaire. Results indicate that users’ information requirements differed from the uncertainty categories considered most relevant by model developers. In particular, policy experts called for addressing a broader set of uncertainty sources (e.g. model structure and technical model setup). The findings highlight that investigating users’ uncertainty information needs is an essential step towards creating confidence in an IA model and its outcomes. This alone, however, may not be sufficient for effectively implementing a user-oriented uncertainty analysis in such models. As the case study illustrates, it requires to include uncertainty analysis into user participation from the outset of the IA modelling process.
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29.
  • Gebrehiwot, Solomon Gebreyohannis, et al. (författare)
  • Forest cover change over four decades in the Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia : comparison of three watersheds
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 14:1, s. 253-266
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The objective of this study was to quantify forest cover changes in three watersheds (Gilgel Abbay (1,646 km(2)), Birr (980 km(2)), and Upper-Didesa (1,980 km(2)) of the Blue Nile Basin between 1957 and 2001. Four land cover maps were produced for each watershed for 1957/1958, 1975, 1986, and 2000/2001. Nine different types of land cover were identified, five of which were forest cover classes. Between 1957 and 2001, the total forest cover increased in Gilgel Abbay (from 10 to 22 % cover) and decreased in Birr (from 29 to 22 % cover) as well as in Upper-Didesa (from 89 to 45 % cover). The increase in Gilgel Abbay was primarily due to the expansion of eucalyptus plantations. Natural forest cover decreased in all three watersheds. Wooded grassland decreased by two-thirds, dry/moist mixed forests decreased by half, and riverine forests had disappeared by 1975 in Gilgel Abbay and Birr. Major deforestation had already taken place in the northern watersheds, Gilgel Abbay and Birr, before the 1960s and 1970s, while in the southern watershed, Upper-Didesa, much of the deforestation occurred after 1975. The southern watershed still remained by far the most forested watershed in 2001 despite the strong ongoing deforestation. The changes in forest cover could affect natural resource management, greenhouse gas emissions, water resources, and agricultural production including coffee production. The patterns of change are different in the three watersheds. We therefore recommend further studies of the local conditions and drivers of change as the basis for designing effective policy to halt further loss of natural forest, which offers a wealth of ecosystem services.
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30.
  • Gebrehiwot, Solomon Gebreyohannis, et al. (författare)
  • The long-term hydrology of East Africa's water tower : statistical change detection in the watersheds of the Abbay Basin
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 14:1, s. 321-331
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Forty-five years (1960-2004) of hydrological data from 12 watersheds in the Abbay Basin, Ethiopia, were tested for possible trends over the entire time series and differences in medians (step-wise changes) between three sub-periods. The classification of the sub-periods was based on the major political changes in 1975 and 1991. Variables investigated were rainfall (P), total flow (Q(t)), high flow (Q(h)), low flow (Q(1)), low flow index (LFI) and run-off coefficient (C). Data were checked for outliers, errors and homogeneity. Trend was tested after serial and cross-correlation tests. The data for each variable were serially uncorrelated from 1 to 10 lag years. There were five globally significant trends out of 50 test cases and 36 significant step-wise changes out of 180 tests. The majority of the significant changes were watershed specific. Run-off coefficient was the single variable showing a consistently increasing trend and stood for ca. 25 % of the total significant trends and step-wise changes. Half of these changes occurred after 1991. We concluded that despite the land use policy changes in 1975 and 1991, as well as the long-term soil degradation, the hydrological regime was quite stable over the 45-year period, with the exception of an increase in the run-off coefficient in the latter part of the run-off record in some watersheds.
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31.
  • Gimmi, Urs, et al. (författare)
  • Quantifying disturbance effects on vegetation carbon pools in mountain forests based on historical data
  • 2009
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 9:2, s. 121-130
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Although the terrestrial carbon budget is of key importance for atmospheric CO(2) concentrations, little is known on the effects of management and natural disturbances on historical carbon stocks at the regional scale. We reconstruct the dynamics of vegetation carbon stocks and flows in forests across the past 100 years for a valley in the eastern Swiss Prealps using quantitative and qualitative information from forest management plans. The excellent quality of the historical information makes it possible to link dynamics in growing stocks with high-resolution time series for natural and anthropogenic disturbances. The results of the historical reconstruction are compared with modelled potential natural vegetation. Forest carbon stock at the beginning of the twentieth century was substantially reduced compared to natural conditions as a result of large scale clearcutting lasting until the late nineteenth century. Recovery of the forests from this unsustainable exploitation and systematic forest management were the main drivers of a strong carbon accumulation during almost the entire twentieth century. In the 1990s two major storm events and subsequent bark beetle infestations significantly reduced stocks back to the levels of the mid-twentieth century. The future potential for further carbon accumulation was found to be strongly limited, as the potential for further forest expansion in this valley is low and forest properties seem to approach equilibrium with the natural disturbance regime. We conclude that consistent long-term observations of carbon stocks and their changes provide rich information on the historical range of variability of forest ecosystems. Such historical information improves our ability to assess future changes in carbon stocks. Further, the information is vital for better parameterization and initialization of dynamic regional scale vegetation models and it provides important background for appropriate management decisions.
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32.
  • Goffner, Deborah, et al. (författare)
  • The Great Green Wall for the Sahara and the Sahel Initiative as an opportunity to enhance resilience in Sahelian landscapes and livelihoods
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 19:5, s. 1417-1428
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Over the past 50years, a large number of development initiatives have addressed the diverse social and ecological challenges in the Sahel, often focusing on a single entry point or action, resulting in only a limited degree of success. Within the last decade, the international development discourse has evolved to incorporate resilience thinking as a way to address more complex challenges. However, concrete examples as to how to operationalize resilience thinking are lacking. The Great Green Wall for the Sahara and the Sahel Initiative (GGW), a pan-African program with a strong reforestation focus, is the latest and most ambitious of these development programs to date. The GGW represents an ideal opportunity to apply resilience thinking at a large scale, but in order to do so, it must intelligently gather and centralize pre-existing interdisciplinary knowledge, generate new knowledge, and integrate knowledge systems to appropriately navigate future uncertainties of the diverse social-ecological systems along its path. Herein, after a brief description of large-scale reforestation history in the Sahara and Sahel and the conceptual evolution of the GGW, we propose a transdisciplinary research framework with resilience thinking at its core. It includes analysis of complex social-ecological systems, their temporal and spatial cross-scale interactions, and outcomes focused on the supply of abundant, diverse, equitable, and durable ecosystem services to support livelihoods in the region. If the research areas that comprise the framework were to be properly addressed, they could conceivably guide GGW actions in a way that would contribute to desirable future pathways.
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33.
  • Gren, Ing-Marie, et al. (författare)
  • Development and non-indigenous species at the global scale
  • 2011
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 11:3, s. 593-601
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • This paper investigates the explanatory power of development, prosperity and regulatory capability as proximate causes of non-indigenous species (NIS) occurrence in different countries, doing this by statistically analysing a global cross-sectional data set. Since the quantification of development is subject to much discussion, two different indicators are tested: gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and the United Nations human development index (HDI). A corruption index is used as an indicator of regulatory capacity. In addition, variables capturing country openness, which facilitates NIS introduction, and habitat conditions, which determine NIS establishment, are included as explanatory variables. The GDP indicator together with the corruption index fits the NIS data best, where the number of NIS is higher in countries with larger incomes. However, countries with relatively high income but low institutional capacity show a larger number of NIS than countries with a similar level of income but with higher institutional capacity. The results also point to the significant contributions of openness and habitat fragmentation to NIS occurrences in the countries.
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34.
  • Gren, Ing-Marie, et al. (författare)
  • Economic development, institutions, and biodiversity loss at the global scale
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 16, s. 445-457
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Current accelerating biodiversity loss is by many conservationists regarded as a result of economic development. Some economists agree on this viewpoint but argue it is valid at low income levels because of the need to secure a minimum living standard. On the other hand, economic development at higher income levels can instead mitigate biodiversity loss because of improved willingness and affordability to implement measures such as protected areas. This so-called environmental Kuznets relation is tested in this study by econometric analysis of cross-sectional data on a global scale. However, the results do not support this relation. Instead, we found a relation between economic and institutional development where economic development decreases biodiversity loss at a minimum level of institutional quality, i.e. minimum capacity to implement and secure property rights for the citizens. Our results thus question policies that neglect institutional quality for reversing biodiversity loss. Further, it was found that biodiversity loss increases with invasive species, high average temperature and precipitation, and spatial autocorrelation.
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35.
  • Gren, Ing-Marie, et al. (författare)
  • Policy design for a multifunctional landscape
  • 2010
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 10:4, s. 339-348
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Landscapes consisting of several elements, such as wetlands and forests, are multifunctional in nature and produce both market and non-market goods. The need for policies arises from the existence of non-market ecosystem services that are not traded and thereby generally not subject to economic trade-offs in landowner decision making. An efficient incentive scheme for producing both types of goods would require policy designed for each non-market good. However, this may result in high transaction costs, possibly giving second-best solutions a comparative advantage when only one non-market good is regulated. This paper demonstrates that in the Hovran catchment area in mid Sweden, which produces the non-market goods water quality, biodiversity, and scenic beauty, compensation payments for biodiversity production alone provide almost maximum total net value of all market and non-market goods. On the other hand, payments for providing scenic beauty in the form of open landscape may result in lower total net value than no compensation payment at all, due to a negative impact on water quality.
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36.
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37.
  • Henriques, Sofia, et al. (författare)
  • Fuelling the English Breakfast : Hidden energy flows in the Anglo-Danish Trade 1870-1913
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 18:4, s. 965-977
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The 1870–1914 globalization period had profound impacts on the international division of labour, with coal-endowed countries specializing in the production of energy-intensive manufacturing goods and others in the production of agricultural goods. This study analyses the environmental consequences of this specialization, by quantifying the flows of energy and hidden energy embodied in the bilateral trade between the UK, the industrial workshop of the world, and Denmark, a coal-poor country with an agricultural economy. We show that the transformations that occurred in Danish agriculture to meet the growing demand for breakfast foods in the UK required significant quantities of feed and coal. Denmark was a net importer of energy throughout the period and a net importer of hidden energy in 1870. However, by the end of this wave of globalization, Denmark had become a significant net exporter of hidden energy to the UK. This was due both to an increase in its land productivity and to the import of coal, grain and fertilizers from abroad.
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38.
  • Hopkins, Richard, et al. (författare)
  • Assessing and managing intensification in smallholder dairy systems for food and nutrition security in Sub-Saharan Africa
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 16, s. 2257-2267
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Smallholder farmers play an important part in the dairy value chain in Sub-Saharan Africa. Three technological approaches have been used to improve productivity. These are through, applying agricultural ecological processes (ecological intensification), utilising modern livestock breeding (genetic intensification), and socio-economic intensification. Ecological intensification includes continuous housing of cows applying a cut-and-carry feeding system, introduction of purpose-bred forages and pastures, and the introduction of agro-forestry within the dairy systems. Genetic intensification strategies include: importation of dairy breeds such as Holstein-Friesian (HF) and cross-breeding of the indigenous breeds with HF. Training and capacity-building activities to create sustainable livelihoods have been initiated for farming and technological practices of animal husbandry, but also to enhance appropriate leadership and corporative-building skills that would create and support an enabling environment for sustainability. These improvements and initiatives in the service delivery have been championed by national governments, development partner institutions, or non-governmental organisations through different programmes. Challenges of intensification include matching management to genetic potential of imported and cross-bred improved dairy breeds, ensuring low post-harvest losses, proper utilisation, and reducing environmental impact. Using examples from Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Zambia, this paper reviews the management and assessment approaches used in fostering smallholder dairy development strategies and dairy's contribution to sustainable livelihoods in the face of intensification.
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39.
  • Jansson, Torbjörn, et al. (författare)
  • Baltic Sea eutrophication status is not improved by the first pillar of the European Union Common Agricultural Policy
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 19:8, s. 2465-2476
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Agriculture is an important source of nitrogen and phosphorous loads to the Baltic Sea. We study how the European Union's (EU) Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), and in particular how its first pillar, containing most of the budget and the decoupled farm payments, affects eutrophication. To aid our study, we use three simulation models, covering the agricultural sector in the EU, a hydrological nutrient flow model and a model of eutrophication in the Baltic Sea. We compute changes in key eutrophication indicators in a business-as-usual baseline and in a hypothetical situation where the first pillar of the CAP, containing the direct payments, greening and accompanying measures, is not present. Comparing the outcomes, we find that in the scenario without the first pillar, production and agricultural land use is lower, while yields and fertiliser use per hectare are higher, causing less nitrogen and phosphorous loads (0.5 to 4% depending on the basin) and less eutrophication in the Baltic Sea as net effect. We therefore conclude that the policies of the first pillar of the CAP contribute to increased eutrophication in the Baltic Sea.
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40.
  • Jarsjö, Jerker, et al. (författare)
  • Patterns of soil contamination, erosion and river loading of metals in a gold mining region of northern Mongolia
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 17:7, s. 1991-2005
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Mining has become one of the main causes of increased heavy metal loading of river systems throughout the world. There is however an evident gap between assessments of soil contamination and metal release at the mined sites and estimates of river pollution. The present work focuses on Zaamar Goldfield, which is one of the largest placer gold mines in the world, located along the Tuul River, Mongolia, which ultimately drains into Lake Baikal, Russia. It combines field observations in the river basin with soil erosion modelling and aims at quantifying the contribution from natural erosion of metal-rich soil to observed increases in mass flows of metals along the Tuul River. Results show that the sediment delivery from the mining area to the Tuul River is considerably higher than the possible contribution from natural soil erosion. This is primarily due to excessive mining-related water use creating turbid wastewaters, disturbed filtering functions of deposition areas (natural sediment traps) close to the river and disturbances from infrastructures such as roads. Furthermore, relative to background levels, soils within Zaamar Goldfield contained elevated concentrations of As, Sr, Mn, V, Ni, Cu and Cr. The enhanced soil loss caused by mining-related activities can also explain observed, considerable increases in mass flows of metals in the Tuul River. The present example from Tuul River may provide useful new insights regarding the erosion and geomorphic evolution of mined areas, as well as the associated delivery of metals into stream networks.
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41.
  • Jiménez, Marcela, et al. (författare)
  • Assessing the historical adaptive cycles of an urban social-ecological system and its potential future resilience : the case of Xochimilco, Mexico City
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 20:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • As the bulk of the world’s population becomes urban, maintaining urban ecosystem services for environmental and social well-being in cities is crucial. According to resilience theory, maintaining such services requires for a complex adaptive systems perspective that helps in identifying key elements and dynamics behind cross-scale social-ecological interactions. In this context, the objective of this article is to use a resilience “lens” to problematize the imminent loss of an urban wetland using the adaptive cycle model as a heuristic tool. Our case study focuses on the Xochimilco wetland, located in the southern periphery of Mexico City. Xochimilco is characterized by the presence of a complex system of raised bed wetland agriculture (the chinampa system), which was established over 1000 years ago; currently, despite having a recognized cultural and environmental value, it is threatened by increasing urban sprawl, over-exploitation of the aquifer, and water contamination. By conducting a historical analysis of the Xochimilco social-ecological system, we assess how it has gone through phases of the adaptive cycle. As a result, we identify critical elements of the system’s historically maintained resilience and main drivers of system change. From such findings, we present some insights on the possibilities of maintaining the system’s resilience and guidance for future management strategies for the Xochimilco wetland. Lastly, we reflect on the scope and limitations of using a resilience-based approach and an adaptive cycle analysis for addressing urban sustainability problems, especially in cities in the Global South.
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42.
  • Keskitalo, E. Carina H., et al. (författare)
  • Adaptive capacity determinants in developed states : examples from the Nordic countries and Russia
  • 2011
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - Berlin : Springer. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 11:3, s. 579-592
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Adaptive capacity in a community context has so far mainly been studied in developing countries as well as indigenous communities in the industrialised world. This article adds to that literature through reviewing studies undertaken in the Nordic countries and Russia, highlighting the ways in which general determinants of adaptive capacity play out in Northern, industrialised contexts. The paper illustrates that the determinants of adaptive capacity in industrialised states exhibit systematic differences from mixed subsistence-cash based communities such as those found in Arctic Canada. We discuss in particular the importance of economic resources in a market-based system, technological competition, and infrastructure, in determining adaptive capacity of natural resource-dependent communities in the Nordic countries and Russia. The paper also illustrates differences in adaptive capacity within the case study region, including between peripheral and central locations with regard to economic resources and diversification possibilities, and between Nordic and Russian cases with regard to infrastructure and technology access. The findings indicate that understanding of determinants of adaptive capacity in resource-dependent communities would benefit from both further contextualisation and broad comparison, across different types of political and administrative systems.
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43.
  • Kmoch, Laura, 1987, et al. (författare)
  • Cyclone Komen’s aftermath: Local knowledge shows how poverty and inequalities fuel climate risk in western Myanmar
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-378X .- 1436-3798. ; 21:4
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Cyclones and other extreme events exert increasing pressure on South-East Asia’s societies and put smallholder farmers at risk. Here, we draw on participatory causal-diagramming workshops, interviews and survey data, to provide contextually grounded knowledge about rural communities’ exposure and vulnerability to climate-related hazards in western Myanmar. By tracing how the 2015 cyclone Komen led to a prolonged humanitarian disaster, we show that climate-related risks in this area arise from the complex interplay of households’ pre-existing vulnerabilities, persistent farming challenges, extensive disasters and cascading effects, which disparately affect lowland and upland communities. The different household strata’s dissimilar vulnerabilities vis-à-vis Komen’s impacts were rooted in the distinct exposure of their production systems to landslides and floods. Pre-existing land-access barriers, land-degradation processes, climatic stressors, agricultural pests and diseases, and chronic lack of assets and food insecurity further mediated households’ vulnerability. Relief interventions did not stop the disaster’s escalation, although this could have been achieved with early technical and material assistance to address the cyclone’s impacts on farmers’ land. Targeted aid for households facing imminent food insecurity or debt crisis could have lessened engagement in precarious coping strategies and distress migration. A diversification of households’ livelihood and land-use practices and increased redundancies of critical assets and infrastructure could help to mitigate future cyclone-triggered disasters. By demonstrating the strengths of local knowledge approaches in untangling the complex interplay of extreme events with households’ everyday vulnerabilities and agricultural land-use practices, we make a case for more contextually grounded disaster risk and climate adaptation research.
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44.
  • Kriegl, Michael, et al. (författare)
  • Coastal livelihood resilience to abrupt environmental change : the role of social capital in a Peruvian bay
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 22:3
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Abrupt environmental change, such as sudden shifts in temperature or salinity, can severely alter the functioning of marine ecosystems and cause dramatic impacts on the associated social systems. Resource users, who rely on ecosystem services provided by the ocean, are particularly vulnerable to such drastic events. Functioning social relationships (social capital) have recently been suggested as a key driver for recovery after disaster. Here, we study how small-scale fishers who conduct sea-ranching of the Peruvian bay scallop Argopecten purpuratus in Northern Peru dealt with the literal wipe-out of their target resources caused by the Coastal El Niño (CEN) of 2017 that heavily impacted the entire region. Adopting an ego-network approach complemented by qualitative information from expert interviews, we investigated how resource users drew on their social networks to cope with the disaster. Results suggested a significant positive correlation between more desirable post-disaster trajectories and the number of helpful social links of scallop farmer associations. Disentangling the temporal aspect of this pattern, we found that social capital established before the disaster was driving this correlation. Importantly, both economic and non-economic links were contributing to the observed patterns. This study emphasizes the importance of social capital for dealing with the effects of disasters following natural events. Having extensive social networks increases the capacity to mobilize resources and information when needed and is associated with more efficient recovery after abrupt environmental change. Mechanisms to foster and enhance social capital are key for preventive management actions aiming to build resilience within vulnerable communities facing accelerating global change.
  •  
45.
  • Lana, Marcos (författare)
  • Can Tanzania's adaptation measures prevent future maize yield decline? A simulation study from Singida region
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 21
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Cereal crop production in sub-Saharan Africa has not achieved the much-needed increase in yields to foster economic development and food security. Maize yields in the region's semi-arid agroecosystems are constrained by highly variable rainfall, which may be worsened by climate change. Thus, the Tanzanian government has prioritized agriculture as an adaptation sector in its intended nationally determined contribution, and crop management adjustments as a key investment area in its Agricultural Sector Development Programme. In this study, we investigated how future changes in maize yields under different climate scenarios can be countered by regional adjusted crop management and cultivar adaptation strategies. A crop model was used to simulate maize yields in the Singida region of Tanzania for the baseline period 1980-2012 and under three future climate projections for 2020-2060 and 2061-2099. Adaptation strategies to improve yields were full irrigation, deficit irrigation, mulch and nitrogen addition and another cultivar. According to our model results, increase in temperature is the main driver of future maize yield decline. Increased respiration and phenological development were associated with lower maize yields of 16% in 2020-2060 and 20% in 2061-2099 compared to the 1980-2012 baseline. Surprisingly, none of the management strategies significantly improved yields; however, a different maize variety that was tested as an alternative coping strategy performed better. This study suggests that investment in accessibility of improved varieties and investigation of maize traits that have the potential to perform well in a warmer future are better suited for sustaining maize production in the semi-arid region than adjustments in crop management.
  •  
46.
  • Lemos, Cassia M. G., et al. (författare)
  • Combining regional to local restoration goals in the Brazilian Atlantic forest
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 21:3
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • To achieve regional and international large-scale restoration goals with minimum costs, several restoration commitments rely on natural regeneration, a passive and inexpensive strategy. However, natural regeneration potential may vary within the landscape, mainly due to its historical context. In this work, we use spatially explicit restoration scenarios to explore how and where, within a given region, multiple restoration commitments could be combined to achieve cost-effectiveness outcomes. Our goal is to facilitate the elaboration of forest restoration plans at the regional level, taking into consideration the costs for active and passive restoration methods. The approach includes (1) a statistical analysis to estimate the natural regeneration potential for a given area based on alternative sets of biophysical, land cover, and/or socioeconomic factors and (2) the use of a land change allocation model to explore the cost-effectiveness of combining multiple restoration commitments in a given area through alternative scenarios. We test our approach in a strategic region in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest Biome, the Paraiba Valley in São Paulo State. Using the available data for 2011, calibrated for 2015, we build alternative scenarios for allocating natural regeneration until 2025. Our models indicate that the natural regeneration potential of the region is actually very low, and the cost-effectiveness outcomes are similar for all scenarios. We believe our approach can be used to support the regional-level decision-making about the implementation of multiple commitments aiming at the same target area. It can also be combined with other approaches for more refined analysis (e.g., optimization models).
  •  
47.
  • Li, Bei-Bei, et al. (författare)
  • The spatial and temporal change of cropland in the Scandinavian Peninsula during 1875–1999
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 13:6, s. 1325-1336
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Land use and land cover change (LUCC) has emerged as an important issue of global change with significant influences on the geochemical cycle and regional climate change. Understanding the historical changes of land use and analyzing the environmental effects of LUCC make such reconstructions important. Based on historical statistics, this article reconstructs cropland area at the municipality level (härad/kommun) in the Scandinavian Peninsula during 1875–1999. The total acreage of cropland increased 36.84 % during 1875–1930, kept stable during 1930–1950, and decreased 14.25 % during 1950–1999. The croplands of Sweden and Norway both increased before 1950 and changed in different ways during 1950–1999 when the cropland decreased by 19.79 % in Sweden but increased by 9.63 % in Norway. The counties in the south Scandinavian Peninsula owned most of the cropland, with a cropland proportion of over 20 %, and experienced relatively obvious cropland changes. Growth centers with a rate of increase of over 5 % during 1875–1910 were found in Skåne, Stockholm, the Uppsala counties in Sweden, and the area around Oslo county in Norway. The general cropland distribution showed almost no change during this period, which mainly reflects the suitability of the natural conditions for agriculture. Multi-social factors co-impacted land use activities and induced temporal and spatial variations of the cropland. These factors included food supply, world trade, wars, agriculture policies, the economic and political environment, urbanization, and national differences. Compared with the widely used global land use dataset Historical Database of the Global Environment (HYDE), this study shows different cropland change curves before 1950. This article is a case study showing that the hindcasting model of the HYDE dataset has difficulty estimating multi-determined cropland change in the Scandinavian Peninsula, and the empirical study contributes to the improvement of the accuracy of historical land use data at the regional level.
  •  
48.
  • Li, Yuheng (författare)
  • Urban-rural interaction patterns and dynamic land use : Implications for urban-rural integration in China
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 12:4, s. 803-812
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Working within the context of enlarged urban-rural inequalities in China, this paper aims to identify different urban-rural interaction patterns and to propose specific ways of achieving urban-rural integration with respect to those different patterns. The paper establishes a strong connection between resource flows and environmental change. An urban-rural interaction index is put forward, based upon the division of the counties and urban districts of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region into three groups. The "high urban agglomeration" group includes those urban districts and adjacent counties currently experiencing rapid socioeconomic growth. The "medium peri-urban agglomeration" group consists of counties surrounding areas in the first group, which have moderate population growth and moderate economic growth. The "low rural periphery agglomeration" group, located in the northern and western parts of the region, has slow socioeconomic growth. Within the "high urban agglomeration" group, the factors of arable land and built-up land have the highest rates of change, while in the third group, these factors have the lowest rate of change. Moderate rates of land-use change characterize the counties within the second group. Three specific ways of achieving urban-rural integration in the three urban-rural interaction patterns are proposed in accordance with the research findings.
  •  
49.
  • Lindbladh, Matts, et al. (författare)
  • Consequences for bird diversity from a decrease in a foundation speciesreplacing Scots pine stands with Norway spruce in southern Sweden
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 19, s. 1429-1440
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Forest ecosystems are often defined by their dominant foundation tree species, which dictate forest structure and ecosystem processes. In southern Sweden, concerns are being raised because production stands of a foundation tree species, Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), are being converted to Norway spruce (Picea abies) stands. Such conversions may lead to biodiversity loss, though the specific nature and extent of such losses remain unknown. Here, we assess the potential biodiversity impacts by contrasting the bird communities of 55- and 80-year-old Scots pine and Norway spruce production stands. We also determine the extent to which these production stands capture the available species pool by surveying conifer-dominated reserves. Our results indicate that Scots pine and Norway spruce production forests support overlapping but nevertheless distinct bird communities, though only few recordings were made of the species unique to either stand type. Among the production stands, the 80-year spruce stands had the highest average bird species richness, and largest total number of species recorded. We suggest that the higher diversity can be explained by a higher proportion of broadleaves and higher volumes of dead wood. Although the bird diversity found in the reserves was lower than expected, they benefit gamma diversity at landscape scales as they collectively supported a higher diversity of bird species than the production forests. In summary, the conversion of Scots pine to Norway spruce is likely to increase the homogeneity of the bird communities in this region.
  •  
50.
  • Liski, Anja Helena, et al. (författare)
  • Governance and stakeholder perspectives of managed re-alignment: adapting to sea level rise in the Inner Forth estuary, Scotland
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-378X .- 1436-3798. ; 19:8, s. 2231-2243
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • With climate change, coastal areas are faced with unprecedented sea level rise and flooding, raising questions as to how societies will choose to adapt. One option is to strengthen existing sea walls to maintain current land uses; however, scientists, policy-makers and conservationists increasingly see the benefits of managed realignment, which is a nature-based coastal adaptation that involves the conversion of reclaimed farmland back to wetlands, allowing periodic local flooding in designated areas to reduce the risk of flooding downstream. We interviewed 16 local organisations, landowners and farmers and held workshops with 109 citizens living the Inner Forth estuary in eastern Scotland, to examine how managed realignment is supported by stakeholder attitudes and their engagement. Most of the farmers we interviewed prefer strengthened sea walls, to maintain their livelihoods and agricultural heritage. Citizens and local organisations were mainly supportive of managed realignment, because it provided wildlife and flood regulation benefits. However, we identified several barriers that could present obstacles to implementing managed realignment, for example, uncertainty whether it would support their principles of economic and rational decision-making. Our findings suggest that the local capacity to cope with rising sea levels is limited by lack of engagement with all relevant stakeholder groups, the limited scope of existing stakeholder partnerships and poor short-term funding prospects of landscape partnerships that would facilitate collaboration and discussion. We suggest that including citizens, landowners, farmers and industries would strengthen existing stakeholder deliberation and collaboration, and support the Inner Forth’s transition towards a more sustainable future shoreline.
  •  
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