| 1. |
- Ahmad, Noor Azlinda, et al.
(författare)
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Radiation field spectra of long-duration cloud flashes
- 2015
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Science Letters. - : Wiley. - 1530-261X. ; 16:2, s. 91-95
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The preliminary results of radiation electric fields produced by long-duration cloud flashes have been Fourier analyzed to determine the frequency spectrum in the range of 10kHz-10MHz. The flashes were recorded within a distance of less than 20km. The spectrum was normalized to 50km distance and it shows a f(-1) dependence within the entire frequency range.
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| 2. |
- Ali, M. M., et al.
(författare)
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Relationship between ocean mean temperatures and Indian summer monsoon rainfall
- 2015
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Science Letters. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 1530-261X. ; 16:3, s. 408-413
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Besides improving the understanding of the physics of the challenging problem of monsoon prediction, it is necessary to evaluate the efficiency of the input parameters used in models.Sea-surface temperature (SST) is the only oceanographic parameter applied in most of the monsoon forecasting models, which many times do not represent the heat energy available to the atmosphere. We studied the impacts of ocean mean temperature (OMT), representing the heat energy of the upper ocean, and SST on the all India summer monsoon rainfall through statistical relation during 1993–2013 and found that OMT has a better link than SST
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| 3. |
- Dunstone, Nick J., et al.
(författare)
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Will 2024 be the first year that global temperature exceeds 1.5°C?
- 2024
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Ingår i: ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS. - 1530-261X.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Global mean near surface temperature change is the key metric by which our warming climate is monitored and for which international climate policy is set. At the end of each year the Met Office issues a global mean temperature forecast for the coming year. Following on from the new record in 2023, we predict that 2024 will likely (76% chance) be a new record year with a 1-in-3 chance of exceeding 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial. Whilst a one-year temporary exceedance of 1.5 degrees C would not constitute a breach of the Paris Agreement target, our forecast highlights how close we are now to this. Our 2024 forecast is primarily driven by the strong warming trend of +0.2 degrees C/decade (1981-2023) and secondly by the lagged warming effect of a strong tropical Pacific El Ni & ntilde;o event. We highlight that 2023 itself was significantly warmer than the Met Office DePreSys3 forecast, with much of this additional observed warming coming from the southern hemisphere, the cause of which requires further understanding.
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| 4. |
- Fan, L. J., et al.
(författare)
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Trends in extreme precipitation indices across China detected using quantile regression
- 2016
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Science Letters. - : Wiley. - 1530-261X. ; 17:7, s. 400-406
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- For China, long-term changes are detected not only in the means of eight extreme precipitation indices, but also in their distribution shapes by quantile regression. This resulted in different trends for the means and other aspects of the index distributions. The differences between changes in the means and upper/lower extremes vary with region and index. A noteworthy feature is that changes in upper tails of the index distributions across a broad area, especially in the south, are at a much higher rate than mean trends estimated by the traditional linear regression model. This has practical implications for disaster risk management.
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| 5. |
- Hede, Thomas, 1975-, et al.
(författare)
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A theoretical study revealing the promotion of light-absorbing carbon particles solubilization by natural surfactants in nanosized water droplets
- 2013
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Science Letters. - : Wiley. - 1530-261X. ; 14:2, s. 86-90
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Many identified effects of atmospheric aerosol particles on climate come from pollutants. The effects of light-absorbing carbon particles (soot) are amongst the most uncertain and they are also considered to cause climate warming on the same order of magnitude as anthropogenic carbon dioxide. This study contributes to the understanding of the potential for transformation of the surface character of soot from hydrophobic to hydrophilic, which in clouds promotes a build-up of water-soluble material. We use molecular dynamics simulations to show how natural surfactants facilitate solubilization of fluoranthene, which we use as a model compound for soot in nanoaerosol water clusters.
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| 6. |
- Le, Thanh
(författare)
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Solar forcing of Earth's surface temperature in PMIP3 simulations of the last millennium
- 2015
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Science Letters. - : Wiley. - 1530-261X. ; 16:3, s. 285-290
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study quantitatively diagnose the linkage between Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and Earth's near-surface air temperature (TAS) of past 1000-year as simulated by Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project 3 (PMIP3) models. The results demonstrate that there is causal feedback of TAS from TSI variations, especially in the tropical and subtropical regions. The consistency between models in simulating solar signal in TAS responses is significant in these regions with more than 70% selected models showing agreement. There is no agreement between models in simulating TSI-TAS relationship in mid and high latitude regions.
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| 7. |
- Luo, Z. Q., et al.
(författare)
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Extreme hot days over three global mega-regions: Historical fidelity and future projection
- 2020
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Science Letters. - : Wiley. - 1530-261X. ; 21:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Using a downscaled high-resolution NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations, this study evaluated and compared extreme hot days (EHDs) over the three mega-regions [the Eastern United States (EUS), Europe (EU) and Eastern Asia (EA)] during the historical period (1981-2005) against observations, resulting in a subset of models with high skill for the past climatology and trend. The observed EHDs over EU exhibit the largest absolute amount and the most significant increases in frequency (4.0 days center dot decade(-1)), intensity (0.22 degrees C center dot decade(-1)) and extent (8.4 degrees C center dot days center dot ecade(-1)), while no significant trend over EUS is found. Compared with the observation, the largest bias in NEX-GDDP is the remarkably overestimated increase in the trend over EUS. In the RCP8.5 projection using six models with relatively high fidelity, the increase of EHDs is evidently enhanced during 2030-2054 over the three regions, particularly EUS. The projected trend of EHDs over EUS could be undetermined because of the modelling biases in aerosol effects and internal variation, which is worthy of further investigation in CMIP6.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Paeth, Heiko, et al.
(författare)
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Progress in regional downscaling of west African precipitation
- 2011
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Science Letters. - : Wiley. - 1530-261X. ; 12:1, s. 75-82
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We review the recent progress in dynamical and statistical downscaling approaches for west African precipitation and perform a regional climate model (RCM) intercomparison using the novel multi-model RCM data set from the Ensembles-based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) and African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (AMMA) projects. Present RCMs have distinct systematic errors in terms of west African precipitation varying in amplitude and pattern across models. This is also reflected in a relatively large spread in projected future precipitation trends. Altogether, the ENSEMBLES RCMs indicate a prevailing drying tendency in sub-Saharan Africa. Statistical post-processing of simulated precipitation is a promising tool to reduce systematic model errors before application in impact studies.
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| 10. |
- Ruti, P. M., et al.
(författare)
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The West African climate system: a review of the AMMA model inter-comparison initiatives
- 2011
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Science Letters. - : Wiley. - 1530-261X. ; 12:1, s. 116-122
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We review the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) model inter-comparison activities for West Africa. The Model Inter-comparison Project is an evaluation exercise of how global and regional atmospheric models represent seasonal and intra-seasonal variations of the climate and rainfall over the Sahel. The Land surface Model Inter-comparison Project in turn focuses on modelling critical land surface processes over West Africa and on their link with the atmosphere. The CHEmistry Model Inter-comparison Project (CHEMIP) is a comparison of the tropospheric composition as simulated by a number of Chemical Transport Models (CTM) and Chemistry-Climate Models. We highlight the main model limitations and provide recommendations for future development. Copyright. (C) 2011 Royal Meteorological Society
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| 11. |
- Zappa, Massimiliano, et al.
(författare)
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Propagation of uncertainty from observing systems and NWP into hydrological models : COST-731 Working Group 2
- 2010
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Science Letters. - : Wiley. - 1530-261X. ; 11:2, s. 83-91
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The COST-731 action is focused on uncertainty propagation in hydrometeorological forecasting chains. Goals and activities of the action Working Group 2 are presented. Five foci for discussion and research have been identified: (1) understand uncertainties, (2) exploring, designing and comparing methodologies for the use of uncertainty in hydrological models, (3) providing feedback on sensitivity to data and forecast providers, (4) transferring methodologies among the different communities involved and (5) setting up test-beds and perform proof-of-concepts. Current examples of different perspectives on uncertainty propagation are presented.
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| 12. |
- Zhang, Q, et al.
(författare)
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Trends and abrupt changes of precipitation maxima in the Pearl River basin, China
- 2009
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Science Letters. - : Wiley. - 1530-261X. ; 10:2, s. 132-144
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We applied the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Bayesian model to systematically explore trends and abrupt changes of the precipitation series in the Pearl River basin. The results showed that no significant trends were detected for annual precipitation and summer or winter precipitation totals. Significant negative trends were identified for the number of rainy days across the Pearl River basin; significant positive trends were observed regarding precipitation intensity (PI). In particular, the precipitation totals and frequencies of extremely high precipitation events are subject to significant positive trends. In addition, the number of extremely low precipitation events was also increasing significantly. Factors affecting the changes in precipitation patterns are the weakening Asian monsoon and consequently increasing moisture transport to Southern China and the Pearl River basin. In summary, the main findings of this study are: (1) increased precipitation variability and high-intensity rainfall was observed though rainy days and low-intensity rainfall have decreased, and (2) the amount of rainfall has changed little but its variability has increased over the time interval divided by change points. These finds indicate potentially increased risk for both agriculture and in locations subject to flooding, both urban and rural, across the Pearl River basin. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society
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