| 1. |
- Leedal, D., et al.
(författare)
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Visualization approaches for communicating real-time flood forecasting level and inundation information
- 2010
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Ingår i: Journal of Flood Risk Management. - 1753-318X. ; 3:2, s. 140-150
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The January 2005 flood event in the Eden catchment (UK) has focused considerable research effort towards strengthening and extending operational flood forecasting in the region. The Eden catchment has become a key study site within the remit of phase two of the Flood Risk Management Research Consortium. This paper presents a synthesis of results incorporating model uncertainty analysis, computationally efficient real-time data assimilation/forecasting algorithms, two-dimensional (2D) inundation modelling, and data visualization for decision support. The emphasis here is on methods of presenting information from a new generation of probabilistic flood forecasting models. Using Environment Agency rain and river-level gauge data, a data-based mechanistic model is identified and incorporated into a modified Kalman Filter (KF) data assimilation algorithm designed for real-time flood forecasting applications. The KF process generates forecasts within a probabilistic framework. A simulation of the 6-h ahead forecast for river levels at Sheepmount (Carlisle) covering the January 2005 flood event is presented together with methods of visualizing the associated uncertainty. These methods are then coupled to the 2D hydrodynamic LISFLOOD-FP model to produce real-time flood inundation maps. The value of incorporating probabilistic information is emphasized.
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| 2. |
- Ahmadlou, Mohammad, et al.
(författare)
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Flood susceptibility mapping and assessment using a novel deep learning model combining multilayer perceptron and autoencoder neural networks
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of Flood Risk Management. - UK : John Wiley & Sons. - 1753-318X. ; 14:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Floods are one of the most destructive natural disasters causing financial dam-ages and casualties every year worldwide. Recently, the combination of data-driven techniques with remote sensing (RS) and geographical information sys-tems (GIS) has been widely used by researchers for flood susceptibility map-ping. This study presents a novel hybrid model combining the multilayerperceptron (MLP) and autoencoder models to produce the susceptibility mapsfor two study areas located in Iran and India. For two cases, nine, and twelvefactors were considered as the predictor variables for flood susceptibility map-ping, respectively. The prediction capability of the proposed hybrid model wascompared with that of the traditional MLP model through the area under thereceiver operating characteristic (AUROC) criterion. The AUROC curve for theMLP and autoencoder-MLP models were, respectively, 75 and 90, 74 and 93%in the training phase and 60 and 91, 81 and 97% in the testing phase, for Iranand India cases, respectively. The results suggested that the hybridautoencoder-MLP model outperformed the MLP model and, therefore, can beused as a powerful model in other studies for flood susceptibility mapping.
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| 3. |
- Arvidsson, Björn, et al.
(författare)
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Flood risk assessments—Exploring maturity and challenges in Sweden
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Ingår i: Journal of Flood Risk Management. - 1753-318X.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Floods are destructive to society. Hence, to assess and manage flood risk is imperative. Flood risk assessments require several layers of analysis, from flood hazard to societal impact. This paper explores the maturity level and challenges related to three components of a comprehensive risk assessment: flood hazard, direct consequences, and indirect consequences. This is achieved by introducing and applying a maturity framework on flood hazard reports and flood risk management plans in Sweden, as required by the EU Floods Directive (FD). A longitudinal analysis is conducted over two FD cycles (2009–2015 and 2016–2021). Complementary interviews with county administrative boards and responsible authorities provide deeper insights into processes and practical challenges. The results reveal that the maturity level of flood hazard assessment is high, while direct and, in particular, indirect consequences assessments need increased attention and substantial improvements. Further, there is no significant increase in maturity between the FD cycles, indicating fundamental challenges towards achieving this. Critical steps forward include developing applicable methods for analysing both direct and indirect consequences of floods, improving data availability on functionality and interdependency of critical infrastructure and society at large, and creating incentives for a broader range of societal actors to participate in flood risk management.
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| 4. |
- Badjana, Heou Maleki, et al.
(författare)
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Can hydrological models assess the impact of natural flood management in groundwater-dominated catchments?
- 2023
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Ingår i: Journal of Flood Risk Management. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1753-318X. ; 16:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Natural flood management (NFM) is widely promoted for managing flood risks but the effectiveness of different types of NFM schemes at medium (100-1000 km(2)) and large scales (>1000 km(2)) remains widely unknown. This study demonstrates the importance of fully understanding the impact of model structure, calibration and uncertainty techniques on the results before the NFM assessment is undertaken. Land-based NFM assessment is undertaken in two medium-scale lowland catchments within the Thames River basin (UK) with a modelling approach that uses the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model within an uncertainty framework. The model performed poorly in groundwater-dominated areas (P-factor 0.6). The model performed better in areas dominated by surface and interflow processes (P-factor >0.5 and R-factor <0.6) and here hypothetical experiments converting land to broadleaf woodland and cropland showed that the model offers good potential for the assessment of NFM effectiveness. However, the reduction of large flood flows greater than 4% in medium-sized catchments would require afforestation of more than 75% of the area. Whilst hydrological models, and specifically SWAT, can be useful tools in assessing the effectiveness of NFM, these results demonstrate that they cannot be applied in all settings.
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| 5. |
- Blumenthal, Barbara, 1969-, et al.
(författare)
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The impact of intense rainfall on insurance losses in two Swedish cities
- 2018
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Ingår i: Journal of Flood Risk Management. - Hoboken : Wiley-Blackwell. - 1753-318X. ; 12:S2, s. 1-13
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- While a major part of previous research in the field of flood damage has focused on water depth as the most important causal factor, little attention has been paid to the role of rainfall intensity. As a test, this paper used correlation and regression analyses to investigate rainfall intensity as a factor affecting flood damage. For a time period of 15 years, the relationship between insurance losses caused by floods and rainfall intensity data from rain gauges were examined in two Swedish cities. Another objective was to find an approach for damage functions based on rainfall intensity as explanatory variable. Using linear regression, two approaches with considerable high degrees of explanation were found – one based on an exponential function and one on a power function. Using a lower limit for rainfall intensity, the approaches reached degrees of explanation between 30 and 78 %. From this study it was concluded that rainfall intensity during the summer months and the occurrence of insurance damages per day caused by floods were correlated and further that rainfall intensity has a great potential to explain urban flood damages. In the future, additional studies are needed to validate the proposed methods and integrate other flood damage affecting factors in the approach.
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| 6. |
- Boelee, Leonore, et al.
(författare)
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Estimation of uncertainty in flood forecasts—A comparison of methods
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Flood Risk Management. - : Wiley. - 1753-318X. ; 12:Supplement: 1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The scientific literature has many methods for estimating uncertainty, however, there is a lack of information about the characteristics, merits, and limitations of the individual methods, particularly for making decisions in practice. This paper provides an overview of the different uncertainty methods for flood forecasting that are reported in literature, concentrating on two established approaches defined as the ensemble and the statistical approach. Owing to the variety of flood forecasting and warning systems in operation, the question "which uncertainty method is most suitable for which application" is difficult to answer readily. The paper aims to assist practitioners in understanding how to match an uncertainty quantification method to their particular application using two flood forecasting system case studies in Belgium and Canada. These two specific applications of uncertainty estimation from the literature are compared, illustrating statistical and ensemble methods, and indicating the information and output that these two types of methods offer. The advantages, disadvantages and application of the two different types of method are identified. Although there is no one "best" uncertainty method to fit all forecasting systems, this review helps to explain the current commonly used methods from the available literature for the non-specialist.
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| 7. |
- Breinl, Korbinian, et al.
(författare)
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A joint modelling framework for daily extremes of river discharge and precipitation in urban areas
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of Flood Risk Management. - : Wiley. - 1753-318X.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Human settlements are often at risk from multiple hydro-meteorological hazards, which include fluvial floods, short-time extreme precipitation (leading to ‘pluvial’ floods) or coastal floods. In the past, considerable scientific effort has been devoted to assessing fluvial floods. Only recently have methods been developed to assess the hazard and risk originating from pluvial phenomena, whereas little effort has been dedicated to joint approaches. The aim of this study was to develop a joint modelling framework for simulating daily extremes of river discharge and precipitation in urban areas. The basic framework is based on daily observations coupled with a novel precipitation disaggregation algorithm using nearest neighbour resampling combined with the method of fragments to overcome data limitations and facilitate its transferability. The framework generates dependent time series of river discharge and urban precipitation that allow for the identification of fluvial flood days (daily peak discharge), days of extreme precipitation potentially leading to pluvial phenomena (maximum hourly precipitation) and combined fluvial–pluvial flood days (combined time series). Critical thresholds for hourly extreme precipitation were derived from insurance and fire service data.
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| 8. |
- Chen, Aifang, 1990, et al.
(författare)
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Flood impact on Mainland Southeast Asia between 1985 and 2018 — The role of tropical cyclones
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Flood Risk Management. - : Wiley. - 1753-318X. ; 13:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Floods are disastrous natural hazards accused of human live losses. As a flood‐prone area, Mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA) has often been hit by floods, resulting in the highest fatality in the world. Despite the destructive flood impacts, how has flood occurrence changed over the past decades, and to what extent did floods affect the MSEA are not yet clear. Using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory large flood data archive, we aim to assess the trend of flood occurrence in the MSEA in 1985–2018, and quantify the associated impacts on humans. Particularly, the contribution of tropical cyclone (TC) landfall induced floods (TCFloods) is quantified, because of the frequent TC landfalls. Results show that (a) occurrence and maximum magnitude of floods by all causes (ALLFloods) significantly increased (p <.01), but not for TCFloods; (b) On average, TCFloods accounted for 24.6% occurrence of ALLFloods; (c) TCFloods caused higher mortality and displacement rate than ALLFloods did. As low flood protection standards in Cambodia and Myanmar is considered a reason for high flood‐induced mortalities, building higher flood protection standards should be taken as a priority for mitigating potential flood impacts. With quantifying flood occurrence and impacts, this study offers scientific understandings for better flood risk management.
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| 9. |
- Collentine, Dennis, et al.
(författare)
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Realising the potential of natural water retention measures in catchment flood management: trade-offs and matching interests
- 2018
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Ingår i: Journal of Flood Risk Management. - : Wiley. - 1753-318X. ; 11, s. 76-84
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Natural water retention measures (NWRM) are a multifunctional form of green infrastructure that can play an important role in catchment-scale flood risk management. While green infrastructure based on natural processes is increasingly recognised as being complementary to traditional flood control strategies based on grey infrastructure in urban areas, there are a number of outstanding challenges with their widespread uptake. At a catchment scale, it is widely accepted that NWRM in upstream areas based on the concept of 'keeping the rain where it falls' can help reduce the risk of downstream flooding by enhancing or restoring natural hydrological processes including interception, evapotranspiration, infiltration, and ponding. However, both the magnitude of flood risk reduction and the institutional structures needed for widespread uptake of NWRM are inadequately understood. Implementing NWRM can involve trade-offs, especially in agricultural areas. Measures based on drainage management and short rotation forestry may help 'keep the rain where it falls' but can result in foregone farm income. To identify situations where the implementation of NWRM may be warranted, an improved understanding of the likely reductions in downstream urban flood risk, the required institutional structures for risk management and transfer, and mutually acceptable farm compensation schemes are all needed.
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| 10. |
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| 11. |
- Grahn, Tonje, 1976-, et al.
(författare)
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Insured flood damage in Sweden, 1987-2013
- 2018
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Ingår i: Journal of Flood Risk Management. - : Blackwell Publishing. - 1753-318X. ; 12:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study uses insurance claims as a proxy for property damage to analyse flood damage in Sweden between the years 1987 and 2013. The number of compensated insurance claims per year has risen rapidly during this period. As much as 70% of the claims are caused by flood damage occurring during the summer months June, July, and August, when intense rain with low predictability is common. To explore the damage trend a time series cross sectional analysis using four different fixed effect models was applied to the data set. Due to data scarcity, the time series had to be limited to 16years and contain a total of 304 damage observations. The potentially explanatory climate related factor extreme rain, defined as >6 mm/15min, and the socioeconomic factors gross regional product (GRP) per capita and housing stock were tested as explanatory factors. The GRP per capita and housing stock were found to be significant in two regression models. The estimated effect of extreme rainfall events exceeded the effects of GRP per capita and housing stock in the models. Extreme rain was robust to model specification and was found to have a highly significant impact on Swedish flood damage.
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| 12. |
- Hedelin, Beatrice
(författare)
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The EU floods directive in Sweden : Opportunities for integrated and participatory flood risk planning
- 2017
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Ingår i: Journal of Flood Risk Management. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1753-318X. ; 10:2, s. 226-237
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study analyses the implementation of the EU Floods Directive in Sweden. The question here centres on the possibilities promoted by the directive for sustainable flood risk management, with an emphasis on integrated and participatory management forms. Key persons are interviewed, using a set of criteria for sustainable river basin management as a theoretical framework. The study shows that work in this area is guided by a wide array of values, and that the involved experts provide a broad knowledge basis for this work. The need for better coordination between authorities, pieces of legislation and policy fields however remains critical while the merits of participatory planning approaches are not yet sufficiently utilised. One of the primary tasks here is to develop a shared understanding of the formal context and roles of the process while also developing forms for effective collaboration both within the new administration and between the administration and other key actors, most importantly the municipalities. The case of Sweden can provide useful insights into this process for other member states.
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| 13. |
- Kousar, Samara, et al.
(författare)
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Some best-fit probability distributions for at-site flood frequency analysis of the Ume River
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Flood Risk Management. - : Wiley. - 1753-318X. ; 13:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- At‐site flood frequency analysis is a direct method of flood estimation at a given site. The choice of an appropriate probability distribution and parameter estimation method plays a vital role in at‐site frequency analysis. In the current article, flood frequency analysis is carried out at five gauging sites of the Ume River in Sweden. Generalised extreme value, three‐parameter log‐normal, generalised logistic and Gumbel distributions are fitted to the annual maximum peak flow data. The L‐moment and the maximum likelihood methods are used to estimate the parameters of the distributions. Based on different goodness‐of‐fit tests and accuracy measures, the three‐parameter log‐normal distribution has been identified as the best‐fitted distribution by using the L‐moments method of estimation for gauging sites Harrsele Krv, Gardiken and Överuman Nedre. The generalised extreme value distribution with the L‐moments estimation provided the best fit to maximum annual streamflow at gauging sites Solberg and Stornorrfors Krv. Finally, the best‐fitted distribution for each gauging site is used to predict the maximum flow of water for return periods of 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, 500, and 1000 years.
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| 14. |
- Mehring, Phiala, et al.
(författare)
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Going home for tea and medals : How members of the flood risk management authorities in England construct flooding and flood risk management
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal of Flood Risk Management. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1753-318X. ; 15:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The construction of flooding and flood risk management are complex and there is potential for dissonance between individual and institutional understanding and experience of both. In this article, we start by investigating how flooding is managed and the change in paradigm from flood defence to more adaptive approaches, which embed resilience into flood risk management. Using analysis of semi-structured interviews with members of the flood authorities in England, we explore how flood management authorities construct 'flooding' and establish that it is often defined by in-the-moment impacts. Whilst these in-the-moment impacts are understood to be devastating, there is less appreciation of long-term human impacts of living at risk of flooding. We uncover how the construction of 'flood risk management' by the flood authorities is complicated by factors, such as the construction of resilience, availability of funding, technical expertise and responsibility fragmentation that the Floods and Water Management Act (2010) has created. We conclude that the differing constructions of flooding and flood risk management between flood management authorities in England hinder how flooding is managed. Therefore, we propose that a more nuanced understanding of flooding and flood risk management is essential for effective partnership working between flood risk management authorities and communities.
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| 15. |
- Salvati, Aryan, et al.
(författare)
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Flood susceptibility mapping using support vector regression and hyper-parameter optimization
- 2023
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Ingår i: Journal of Flood Risk Management. - : John Wiley and Sons Inc. - 1753-318X. ; 16:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Floods are both complex and destructive, and in most parts of the world cause injury, death, loss of agricultural land, and social disruption. Flood susceptibility (FS) maps are used by land-use managers and land owners to identify areas that are at risk from flooding and to plan accordingly. This study uses machine learning ensembles to produce objective and reliable FS maps for the Haraz watershed in northern Iran. Specifically, we test the ability of the support vector regression (SVR), together with linear kernel (LK), base classifier (BC), and hyper-parameter optimization (HPO), to identify flood-prone areas in this watershed. We prepared a map of 201 past floods to predict future floods. Of the 201 flood events, 151 (75%) were used for modeling and 50 (25%) were used for validation. Based on the relevant literature and our field survey of the study area, 10 effective factors were selected and prepared for flood zoning. The results show that three of the 10 factors are most important for predicting flood-sensitive areas, specifically and in order of importance, slope, distance to the river and river. Additionally, the SVR-HPO model, with area under the curve values of 0.986 and 0.951 for the training and testing phases, outperformed the other two tested models.
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| 16. |
- Smith, P. J., et al.
(författare)
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Testing probabilistic adaptive real-time flood forecasting models
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Flood Risk Management. - : Wiley. - 1753-318X. ; 7:3, s. 265-279
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Operational flood forecasting has become a complex and multifaceted task, increasingly being treated in probabilistic ways to allow for the inherent uncertainties in the forecasting process. This paper reviews recent applications of data-based mechanistic (DBM) models within the operational UK National Flood Forecasting System. The position of DBM models in the forecasting chain is considered along with their offline calibration and validation. The online adaptive implementation with assimilation of water level information as used for forecasting is outlined. Two example applications based upon UK locations where severe flooding has occurred, the River Eden at Carlisle and River Severn at Shrewsbury, are presented.
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| 17. |
- Zsoter, Ervin, et al.
(författare)
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Using ensemble reforecasts to generate flood thresholds for improved global flood forecasting
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Flood Risk Management. - : Wiley. - 1753-318X. ; 13:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Global flood forecasting systems rely on predefining flood thresholds to highlight potential upcoming flood events. Existing methods for flood threshold definition are often based on reanalysis datasets using a single threshold across all forecast lead times, such as in the Global Flood Awareness System. This leads to inconsistencies between how the extreme flood events are represented in the flood thresholds and the ensemble forecasts. This paper explores the potential benefits of using river flow ensemble reforecasts to generate flood thresholds that can deliver improved reliability and skill, increasing the confidence in the forecasts for humanitarian and civil protection partners. The choice of dataset and methods used to sample annual maxima in the threshold computation, both for reanalysis and reforecast, is analysed in terms of threshold magnitude, forecast reliability, and skill for different flood severity levels and lead times. The variability of threshold magnitudes, when estimated from the different annual maxima samples, can be extremely large, as can the subsequent impact on forecast skill. Reanalysis-based thresholds should only be used for the first few days, after which ensemble-reforecast-based thresholds, that vary with forecast lead time and can account for the forecast bias trends, provide more reliable and skilful flood forecasts.
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