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1.
  • Adolphi, Florian, et al. (författare)
  • Connecting the Greenland ice-core and U/Th timescales via cosmogenic radionuclides : Testing the synchroneity of Dansgaard-Oeschger events
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 14:11, s. 1755-1781
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • During the last glacial period Northern Hemisphere climate was characterized by extreme and abrupt climate changes, so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. Most clearly observed as temperature changes in Greenland ice-core records, their climatic imprint was geographically widespread. However, the temporal relation between DO events in Greenland and other regions is uncertain due to the chronological uncertainties of each archive, limiting our ability to test hypotheses of synchronous change. In contrast, the assumption of direct synchrony of climate changes forms the basis of many timescales. Here, we use cosmogenic radionuclides (10Be, 36Cl, 14C) to link Greenland ice-core records to U=Th-dated speleothems, quantify offsets between the two timescales, and improve their absolute dating back to 45 000 years ago. This approach allows us to test the assumption that DO events occurred synchronously between Greenland ice-core and tropical speleothem records with unprecedented precision. We find that the onset of DO events occurs within synchronization uncertainties in all investigated records. Importantly, we demonstrate that local discrepancies remain in the temporal development of rapid climate change for specific events and speleothems. These may either be related to the location of proxy records relative to the shifting atmospheric fronts or to underestimated U=Th dating uncertainties. Our study thus highlights the potential for misleading interpretations of the Earth system when applying the common practice of climate wiggle matching.
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2.
  • Adolphi, Florian, et al. (författare)
  • Synchronizing the Greenland ice core and radiocarbon timescales over the Holocene-Bayesian wiggle-matching of cosmogenic radionuclide records
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 12:1, s. 15-30
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Investigations of past climate dynamics rely on accurate and precise chronologies of the employed climate reconstructions. The radiocarbon dating calibration curve (IntCal13) and the Greenland ice core chronology (GICC05) represent two of the most widely used chronological frameworks in paleoclimatology of the past 1/4 g50g000 years. However, comparisons of climate records anchored on these chronologies are hampered by the precision and accuracy of both timescales. Here we use common variations in the production rates of 14C and 10Be recorded in tree-rings and ice cores, respectively, to assess the differences between both timescales during the Holocene. Compared to earlier work, we employ a novel statistical approach which leads to strongly reduced and yet, more robust, uncertainty estimates. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the inferred timescale differences are robust independent of (i) the applied ice core 10Be records, (ii) assumptions of the mode of 10Be deposition, as well as (iii) carbon cycle effects on 14C, and (iv) in agreement with independent estimates of the timescale differences. Our results imply that the GICC05 counting error is likely underestimated during the most recent 2000 years leading to a dating bias that propagates throughout large parts of the Holocene. Nevertheless, our analysis indicates that the GICC05 counting error is generally a robust uncertainty measurement but care has to be taken when treating it as a nearly Gaussian error distribution. The proposed IntCal13-GICC05 transfer function facilitates the comparison of ice core and radiocarbon dated paleoclimate records at high chronological precision.
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3.
  • Agnini, Claudia, et al. (författare)
  • Stable isotope and calcareous nannofossil assemblage record of the late Paleocene and early Eocene (Cicogna section)
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 12:4, s. 883-909
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We present records of stable carbon and oxygen isotopes, CaCO3 content, and changes in calcareous nannofossil assemblages across an 81 m thick section of upper Paleocene lower Eocene marine sedimentary rocks now exposed along the Cicogna Stream in northeast Italy. The studied stratigraphic section represents sediment accumulation in a bathyal hemipelagic setting from approximately 57.5 to 52.2 Ma, a multi-million-year time interval characterized by perturbations in the global carbon cycle and changes in calcareous nannofossil assemblages. The bulk carbonate delta C-13 profile for the Cicogna section, once placed on a common timescale, resembles that at several other locations across the world, and includes both a long-term drop in delta C-13 and multiple short-term carbon isotope excursions (CIEs). This precise correlation of widely separated delta C-13 records in marine sequences results from temporal changes in the carbon composition of the exogenic carbon cycle. However, diagenesis has likely modified the delta C-13 record at Cicogna, an interpretation supported by variations in bulk carbonate 8180, which do not conform to expectations for a primary signal. The record of CaCO3 content reflects a combination of carbonate dilution and dissolution, as also inferred at other sites. Our detailed documentation and statistical analysis of calcareous nannofossil assemblages show major differences before, during and after the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum. Other CIEs in our lower Paleogene section do not exhibit such a distinctive change; instead, these events are sometimes characterized by variations restricted to a limited number of taxa and transient shifts in the relative abundance of primary assemblage components. Both long-lasting and short-lived modifications to calcareous nannofossil assemblages preferentially affected nannoliths or holococcoliths such as Discoaster,, Fasciculithus, Rhomboaster/Tribrachiatus, Sphenolithus and Zygrhablithus, which underwent distinct variations in abundance as well as permanent evolutionary changes in terms of appearances and disappearances. By contrast, placoliths such as Coccolithus and Tow eius, which represent the main component of the assemblages, were characterized by a gradual decline in abundance over time. Comparisons of detailed nannofossil assemblage records at the Cicogna section and at ODP Site 1262 support the idea that variations in the relative and absolute abundances, even some minor changes, were globally synchronous. An obvious link is through climate forcing and carbon cycling, although the linkages between variations in calcareous nannoplankton, changes in delta C-13 records and oceanography will need additional work.
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4.
  • Alatarvas, Raisa, et al. (författare)
  • Heavy mineral assemblages of the De Long Trough and southern Lomonosov Ridge glacigenic deopsits : implication for the East Siberian Ice Sheet extent
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 18:8, s. 1867-1881
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The Arctic's glacial history has classically been interpreted from marine records in terms of the fluctuations of the Eurasian and North American ice sheets. However, the extent and timing of the East Siberian Ice Sheet (ESIS) have remained uncertain. A recently discovered glacially scoured cross-shelf trough extending to the edge of the continental shelf north of the De Long Islands has provided additional evidence that glacial ice existed on parts of the East Siberian Sea (ESS) during previous glacial periods MIS 6 and 4. This study concentrates on defining the heavy mineral signature of glacigenic deposits from the East Siberian continental margin which were collected during the 2014 SWERUS-C3 expedition. The cores studied are 20-GC1 from the East Siberian shelf, 23-GC1 and 24-GC1 from the De Long Trough (DLT), and 29-GC1 from the southern Lomonosov Ridge (LR). Heavy mineral assemblages were used to identify prominent parent rocks in hinterland and other sediment source areas. The parent rock areas include major eastern Siberian geological provinces such as the Omolon massif, the Chukotka fold belt, the Verkhoyansk fold belt, and possibly the Okhotsk–Chukotka volcanic belt. The primary riverine sources for the ESS sediments are the Indigirka and Kolyma rivers, the material of which was glacially eroded and re-deposited in the DLT. The higher abundances of amphiboles in the heavy mineral assemblages may indicate ESS paleovalley of the Indigirka River as a major pathway of sediments, while the Kolyma River paleovalley pathway relates to a higher share of pyroxenes and epidote. The mineralogical signature in the DLT diamicts, consisting predominantly of amphiboles and pyroxenes with a minor content of garnet and epidote, shows clear delivery from the eastern part of the ESIS. Although the physical properties of the DLT glacial diamict closely resemble a pervasive diamict unit recovered from the southern LR, their source material is slightly different. The assemblages with elevated amphibole and garnet content, along with higher titanite and ilmenite content of the southern LR ice-rafted diamict, emphasise the Verkhoyansk fold belt as a possible primary source. The presence of glacial sediments and the recovered glacial–tectonic features on the East Siberian continental shelf and slope, along with the results from this heavy mineral analysis, imply that glacial ice not only grew out of the East Siberian shelf but also from the De Long Islands, and that there was also ice rafting related sediment transportation to the southern LR from westerly sources, such as the Laptev Sea.
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5.
  • Albani, S, et al. (författare)
  • Twelve thousand years of dust : the Holocene global dust cycle constrained by natural archives
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 11:6, s. 869-903
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Mineral dust plays an important role in the climate system by interacting with radiation, clouds, and biogeochemical cycles. In addition, natural archives show that the dust cycle experienced variability in the past in response to global and local climate change. The compilation of the DIRTMAP paleodust datasets in the last two decades provided a target for paleoclimate models that include the dust cycle, following a time slice approach. We propose an innovative framework to organize a paleodust dataset that moves on from the positive experience of DIRTMAP and takes into account new scientific challenges, by providing a concise and accessible dataset of temporally resolved records of dust mass accumulation rates and particle grain-size distributions. We consider data from ice cores, marine sediments, loess/paleosol sequences, lake sediments, and peat bogs for this compilation, with a temporal focus on the Holocene period. This global compilation allows investigation of the potential, uncertainties and confidence level of dust mass accumulation rates reconstructions, and highlights the importance of dust particle size information for accurate and quantitative reconstructions of the dust cycle. After applying criteria that help to establish that the data considered represent changes in dust deposition, 43 paleodust records have been identified, with the highest density of dust deposition data occurring in the North Atlantic region. Although the temporal evolution of dust in the North Atlantic appears consistent across several cores and suggest that minimum dust fluxes are likely observed during the Early to mid-Holocene period (6000–8000 years ago), the magnitude of dust fluxes in these observations is not fully consistent, suggesting that more work needs to be done to synthesize datasets for the Holocene. Based on the data compilation, we used the Community Earth System Model to estimate the mass balance and variability of the global dust cycle during the Holocene, with dust load ranging from 17.1 to 20.5 Tg between 2000 and 10 000 years ago, and a minimum in the Early to Mid-Holocene (6000–8000 years ago).
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6.
  • Annan, James D., et al. (författare)
  • A new global surface temperature reconstruction for the Last Glacial Maximum
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 18:8, s. 1883-1896
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We present a new reconstruction of surface air temperature and sea surface temperature for the Last Glacial Maximum. The method blends model fields and sparse proxy-based point estimates through a data assimilation approach. Our reconstruction updates that of Annan and Hargreaves (2013), using the full range of general circulation model (GCM) simulations which contributed to three generations of the PMIP database, three major compilations of gridded sea surface temperature (SST) and surface air temperature (SAT) estimates from proxy data, and an improved methodology based on an ensemble Kalman filter. Our reconstruction has a global annual mean surface air temperature anomaly of −4.5 ± 0.9◦C relative to the pre-industrial climate. This is slightly colder than the previous estimate of Annan and Hargreaves (2013), with an upwards revision on the uncertainty due to different methodological assumptions. It is, however, substantially less cold than the recent reconstruction of Tierney et al. (2020). We show that the main reason for this discrepancy is in the choice of prior. We recommend the use of the multi-model ensemble of opportunity as potentially offering a credible prior, but it is important that the range of models included in the PMIP ensembles represent the main sources of uncertainty as realistically and comprehensively as practicable if they are to be used in this way.
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7.
  • Armstrong McKay, David I., et al. (författare)
  • Reduced carbon cycle resilience across the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 14:10, s. 1515-1527
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Several past episodes of rapid carbon cycle and climate change are hypothesised to be the result of the Earth system reaching a tipping point beyond which an abrupt transition to a new state occurs. At the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) at similar to 56 Ma and at subsequent hyperthermal events, hypothesised tipping points involve the abrupt transfer of carbon from surface reservoirs to the atmosphere. Theory suggests that tipping points in complex dynamical systems should be preceded by critical slowing down of their dynamics, including increasing temporal auto-correlation and variability. However, reliably detecting these indicators in palaeorecords is challenging, with issues of data quality, false positives, and parameter selection potentially affecting reliability. Here we show that in a sufficiently long, high-resolution palaeorecord there is consistent evidence of destabilisation of the carbon cycle in the similar to 1.5 Myr prior to the PETM, elevated carbon cycle and climate instability following both the PETM and Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2), and different drivers of carbon cycle dynamics preceding the PETM and ETM2 events. Our results indicate a loss of resilience (weakened stabilising negative feedbacks and greater sensitivity to small shocks) in the carbon cycle before the PETM and in the carbon-climate system following it. This pre-PETM carbon cycle destabilisation may reflect gradual forcing by the contemporaneous North Atlantic Volcanic Province eruptions, with volcanism-driven warming potentially weakening the organic carbon burial feedback. Our results are consistent with but cannot prove the existence of a tipping point for abrupt carbon release, e.g. from methane hydrate or terrestrial organic carbon reservoirs, where as we find no support for a tipping point in deep ocean temperature.
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8.
  • Baldermann, Andre, et al. (författare)
  • Palaeo-environmental evolution of Central Asia during the Cenozoic : New insights from the continental sedimentary archive of the Valley of Lakes (Mongolia)
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 17:5, s. 1955-1972
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The Valley of Lakes basin (Mongolia) contains a unique continental sedimentary archive, suitable for constraining the influence of tectonics and climate change on the aridification of Central Asia in the Cenozoic. We identify the sedimentary provenance, the (post)depositional environment and the palaeo-climate based on sedimentological, petrographical, mineralogical, and (isotope) geochemical signatures recorded in authigenic and detrital silicates as well as soil carbonates in a sedimentary succession spanning from ~ 34 to 21 Ma. The depositional setting was characterized by an ephemeral braided river system draining prograding alluvial fans, with episodes of lake, playa or opensteppe sedimentation. Metamorphics from the northern adjacent Neoarchean to late Proterozoic hinterlands provided a continuous influx of silicate detritus to the basin, as indicated by K-Ar ages of detrital muscovite (~ 798-728 Ma) and discrimination function analysis. The authigenic clay fraction is dominated by illite-smectite and "hairy"illite (K-Ar ages of ~ 34-25 Ma), which formed during coupled petrogenesis and precipitation from hydrothermal fluids originating from major basalt flow events (~32-29 and ~ 29-25 Ma). Changes in hydroclimate are recorded in δ18 O and δ13 C profiles of soil carbonates and in silicate mineral weathering patterns, indicating that comparatively humid to semi-arid conditions prevailed in the late(st) Eocene, changing into arid conditions in the Oligocene and back to humid to semi-arid conditions in the early Miocene. Aridification steps are indicated at ~ 34-33, ~ 31, ~ 28 and ~ 23 Ma and coincide with some episodes of high-latitude ice-sheet expansion inferred from marine deep-sea sedimentary records. This suggests that long-term variations in the ocean-atmosphere circulation patterns due to pCO2 fall, reconfiguration of ocean gateways and ice-sheet expansion in Antarctica could have impacted the hydroclimate and weathering regime in the basin. We conclude that the aridification in Central Asia was triggered by reduced moisture influx by westerly winds driven by Cenozoic climate forcing and the exhumation of the Tian Shan and Altai Mountains and modulated by global climate events.
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9.
  • Ballarotta, Maxime, et al. (författare)
  • Last Glacial Maximum world ocean simulations at eddy-permitting and coarse resolutions : do eddies contribute to a better consistency between models and palaeoproxies?
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 9:6, s. 2669-2686
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Most state-of-the-art climate models include a coarsely resolved oceanic component, which hardly captures detailed dynamics, whereas eddy-permitting and eddy-resolving simulations are developed to reproduce the observed ocean. In this study, an eddy-permitting and a coarse resolution numerical experiment are conducted to simulate the global ocean state for the period of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, similar to 26 500 to 19 000 yr ago) and to investigate the improvements due to taking into account the smaller spatial scales. The ocean state from each simulation is confronted with a data set from the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean (MARGO) sea surface temperatures (SSTs), some reconstructions of the palaeo-circulations and a number of sea-ice reconstructions. The western boundary currents and the Southern Ocean dynamics are better resolved in the high-resolution experiment than in the coarse simulation, but, although these more detailed SST structures yield a locally improved consistency between model predictions and proxies, they do not contribute significantly to the global statistical score. The SSTs in the tropical coastal upwelling zones are also not significantly improved by the eddy-permitting regime. The models perform in the mid-latitudes but as in the majority of the Paleo-climate Modelling Intercomparison Project simulations, the modelled sea-ice conditions are inconsistent with the palaeo-reconstructions. The effects of observation locations on the comparison between observed and simulated SST suggest that more sediment cores may be required to draw reliable conclusions about the improvements introduced by the high resolution model for reproducing the global SSTs. One has to be careful with the interpretation of the deep ocean state which has not reached statistical equilibrium in our simulations. However, the results indicate that the meridional overturning circulations are different between the two regimes, suggesting that the model parametrizations might also play a key role for simulating past climate states.
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10.
  • Belt, S. T., et al. (författare)
  • An inter-laboratory investigation of the Arctic sea ice biomarker proxy IP25 in marine sediments : key outcomes and recommendations
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 10:1, s. 155-166
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We describe the results of an inter-laboratory investigation into the identification and quantification of the Arctic sea ice biomarker proxy IP25 in marine sediments. Seven laboratories took part in the study, which consisted of the analysis of IP25 in a series of sediment samples from different regions of the Arctic, sub-Arctic and Antarctic, additional sediment extracts and purified standards. The results obtained allowed 4 key outcomes to be determined. First, IP25 was identified by all laboratories in sediments from the Canadian Arctic with inter-laboratory variation in IP25 concentration being substantially larger than within individual laboratories. This greater variation between laboratories was attributed to the difficulty in accurately determining instrumental response factors for IP25, even though laboratories were supplied with appropriate standards. Second, the identification of IP25 by 3 laboratories in sediment from SW Iceland that was believed to represent a blank, was interpreted as representing a better limit of detection or quantification for such laboratories, contamination or mis-identification. These alternatives could not be distinguished conclusively with the data available, although it is noted that the precision of these data was significantly poorer compared with the other IP25 concentration measurements. Third, 3 laboratories reported the occurrence of IP25 in a sediment sample from the Antarctic Peninsula even though this biomarker is believed to be absent from the Southern Ocean. This anomaly is attributed to a combined chromatographic and mass spectrometric interference that results from the presence of a di-unsaturated highly branched isoprenoid (HBI) pseudo-homologue of IP25 that occurs in Antarctic sediments. Finally, data are presented that suggest that extraction of IP25 is consistent between Accelerated Solvent Extraction (ASE) and sonication methods and that IP25 concentrations based on 7-hexylnonadecane as an internal standard are comparable using these methods. Recoveries of some more unsaturated HBIs and the internal standard 9-octylheptadecene, however, were lower with the ASE procedure, possibly due to partial degradation of these more reactive chemicals as a result of higher temperatures employed with this method. For future measurements, we recommend the use of reference sediment material with known concentration(s) of IP25 for determining and routinely monitoring instrumental response factors. Given the significance placed on the presence (or otherwise) of IP25 in marine sediments, some further recommendations pertaining to quality control are made that should also enable the two main anomalies identified here to be addressed.
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11.
  • Berger, Marit, et al. (författare)
  • The sensitivity of the Arctic sea ice to orbitally induced insolation changes : a study of the mid-Holocene Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 2 and 3 simulations
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 9:2, s. 969-982
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • In the present work the Arctic sea ice in the mid-Holocene and the pre-industrial climates are analysed and compared on the basis of climate-model results from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PMIP2) and phase 3 (PMIP3). The PMIP3 models generally simulate smaller and thinner sea-ice extents than the PMIP2 models both for the pre-industrial and the mid-Holocene climate. Further, the PMIP2 and PMIP3 models all simulate a smaller and thinner Arctic summer sea-ice cover in the mid-Holocene than in the pre-industrial control climate. The PMIP3 models also simulate thinner winter sea ice than the PMIP2 models. The winter sea-ice extent response, i.e. the difference between the mid-Holocene and the pre-industrial climate, varies among both PMIP2 and PMIP3 models. Approximately one half of the models simulate a decrease in winter sea-ice extent and one half simulates an increase. The model-mean summer sea-ice extent is 11% (21 %) smaller in the mid-Holocene than in the pre-industrial climate simulations in the PMIP2 (PMIP3). In accordance with the simple model of Thorndike (1992), the sea-ice thickness response to the insolation change from the pre-industrial to the mid-Holocene is stronger in models with thicker ice in the pre-industrial climate simulation. Further, the analyses show that climate models for which the Arctic sea-ice responses to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations are similar may simulate rather different sea-ice responses to the change in solar forcing between the mid-Holocene and the pre-industrial. For two specific models, which are analysed in detail, this difference is found to be associated with differences in the simulated cloud fractions in the summer Arctic; in the model with a larger cloud fraction the effect of insolation change is muted. A sub-set of the mid-Holocene simulations in the PMIP ensemble exhibit open water off the north-eastern coast of Greenland in summer, which can provide a fetch for surface waves. This is in broad agreement with recent analyses of sea-ice proxies, indicating that beach-ridges formed on the north-eastern coast of Greenland during the early-to mid-Holocene.
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12.
  • Berntell, Ellen, et al. (författare)
  • Mid-Pliocene West African Monsoon rainfall as simulated in the PlioMIP2 ensemble
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 17:4, s. 1777-1794
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; ∼3.2 million years ago) is seen as the most recent time period characterized by a warm climate state, with similar to modern geography and ∼400 ppmv atmospheric CO2 concentration, and is therefore often considered an interesting analogue for near-future climate projections. Paleoenvironmental reconstructions indicate higher surface temperatures, decreasing tropical deserts, and a more humid climate in West Africa characterized by a strengthened West African Monsoon (WAM). Using model results from the second phase of the Pliocene Modelling Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2) ensemble, we analyse changes of the WAM rainfall during the mPWP by comparing them with the control simulations for the pre-industrial period. The ensemble shows a robust increase in the summer rainfall over West Africa and the Sahara region, with an average increase of 2.5 mm/d, contrasted by a rainfall decrease over the equatorial Atlantic. An anomalous warming of the Sahara and deepening of the Saharan Heat Low, seen in >90 % of the models, leads to a strengthening of the WAM and an increased monsoonal flow into the continent. A similar warming of the Sahara is seen in future projections using both phase 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). Though previous studies of future projections indicate a west–east drying–wetting contrast over the Sahel, PlioMIP2 simulations indicate a uniform rainfall increase in that region in warm climates characterized by increasing greenhouse gas forcing. We note that this effect will further depend on the long-term response of the vegetation to the CO2 forcing.
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13.
  • Bini, Monica, et al. (författare)
  • The 4.2 ka BP Event in the Mediterranean region : An overview
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 15:2, s. 555-577
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The Mediterranean region and the Levant have returned some of the clearest evidence of a climatically dry period occurring around 4200 years ago. However, some regional evidence is controversial and contradictory, and issues remain regarding timing, progression, and regional articulation of this event. In this paper, we review the evidence from selected proxies (sea-surface temperature, precipitation, and temperature reconstructed from pollen, δ 18 O on speleothems, and δ 18 O on lacustrine carbonate) over the Mediterranean Basin to infer possible regional climate patterns during the interval between 4.3 and 3.8 ka. The values and limitations of these proxies are discussed, and their potential for furnishing information on seasonality is also explored. Despite the chronological uncertainties, which are the main limitations for disentangling details of the climatic conditions, the data suggest that winter over the Mediterranean involved drier conditions, in addition to already dry summers. However, some exceptions to this prevail - where wetter conditions seem to have persisted - suggesting regional heterogeneity in climate patterns. Temperature data, even if sparse, also suggest a cooling anomaly, even if this is not uniform. The most common paradigm to interpret the precipitation regime in the Mediterranean - a North Atlantic Oscillation-like pattern - is not completely satisfactory to interpret the selected data.
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14.
  • Björck, Svante, et al. (författare)
  • A South Atlantic island record uncovers shifts in westerlies and hydroclimate during the last glacial
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 15:6, s. 1939-1958
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Changes in the latitudinal position and strength of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies (SHW) are thought to be tightly coupled to important climate processes, such as cross-equatorial heat fluxes, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the bipolar seesaw, Southern Ocean ventilation and atmospheric CO2 levels. However, many uncertainties regarding magnitude, direction, and causes and effects of past SHW shifts still exist due to lack of suitable sites and scarcity of information on SHW dynamics, especially from the last glacial. Here we present a detailed hydroclimate multiproxy record from a 36.4-18.6 kyr old lake sediment sequence on Nightingale Island (NI). It is strategically located at 37ĝF S in the central South Atlantic (SA) within the SHW belt and situated just north of the marine Subtropical Front (SF). This has enabled us to assess hydroclimate changes and their link to the regional climate development as well as to large-scale climate events in polar ice cores. The NI record exhibits a continuous impact of the SHW, recording shifts in both position and strength, and between 36 and 31 ka the westerlies show high latitudinal and strength-wise variability possibly linked to the bipolar seesaw. This was followed by 4 kyr of slightly falling temperatures, decreasing humidity and fairly southerly westerlies. After 27 ka temperatures decreased 3-4 ĝC, marking the largest hydroclimate change with drier conditions and a variable SHW position. We note that periods with more intense and southerly-positioned SHW seem to be related to periods of increased CO2 outgassing from the ocean, while changes in the cross-equatorial gradient during large northern temperature changes appear as the driving mechanism for the SHW shifts. Together with coeval shifts of the South Pacific westerlies, our results show that most of the Southern Hemisphere experienced simultaneous atmospheric circulation changes during the latter part of the last glacial. Finally we can conclude that multiproxy lake records from oceanic islands have the potential to record atmospheric variability coupled to large-scale climate shifts over vast oceanic areas..
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15.
  • Björklund, Jesper, 1979, et al. (författare)
  • Blue intensity and density from Northern Fennoscandian tree rings, exploring the potential to improve summer temperature reconstructions with earlywood information
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 10, s. 877-885
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Here we explore two new tree-ring parameters, derived from measurements of wood density and blue intensity (BI). The new proxies show an increase in the interannual summer temperature signal compared to established proxies, and present the potential to improve long-term performance. At high latitudes, where tree growth is mainly limited by low temperatures, radiodensitometric measurements of wood density, specifically maximum latewood density (MXD), provides a temperature proxy that is superior to that of tree-ring widths. The high cost of developing MXD has led to experimentation with a less expensive method using optical flatbed scanners to produce a new proxy, herein referred to as maximum latewood blue absorption intensity (abbreviated MXBI). MXBI is shown to be very similar to MXD on annual timescales but less accurate on centennial timescales. This is due to the fact that extractives, such as resin, stain the wood differentially from tree to tree and from heartwood to sapwood. To overcome this problem, and to address similar potential problems in radiodensitometric measurements, the new parameters 1blue intensity (1BI) and 1density are designed by subtracting the ambient BI/density in the earlywood, as a background value, from the latewood measurements. As a case-study, based on Scots pine trees from Northern Sweden, we show that 1density can be used as a quality control of MXD values and that the reconstructive performance of warm-season mean temperatures is more focused towards the summer months (JJA – June, July, August), with an increase by roughly 20% when also utilising the interannual information from the earlywood. However, even though the new parameter 1BI experiences an improvement as well, there are still puzzling dissimilarities between 1density and 1BI on multicentennial timescales. As a consequence, temperature reconstructions based on 1BI will presently only be able to resolve information on decadalto- centennial timescales. The possibility of trying to calibrate BI into a measure of lignin content or density, similarly to how radiographic measurements are calibrated into density, could be a solution. If this works, only then can 1BI be used as a reliable proxy in multicentennial-scale climate reconstructions.
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16.
  • Bordiga, Manuela, et al. (författare)
  • Microfossil evidence for trophic changes during the Eocene-Oligocene transition in the South Atlantic (ODP Site 1263, Walvis Ridge)
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 11:9, s. 1249-1270
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The biotic response of calcareous nannoplankton to environmental and climatic changes during the Eocene-Oligocene transition was investigated at a high resolution at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1263 (Walvis Ridge, southeast Atlantic Ocean) and compared with a lower-resolution benthic foraminiferal record. During this time interval, global climate, which had been warm under high levels of atmospheric CO2 (pCO(2)) during the Eocene, transitioned into the cooler climate of the Oligocene, at overall lower pCO(2). At Site 1263, the absolute nannofossil abundance (coccoliths per gram of sediment; N g(-1)) and the mean coccolith size decreased distinctly after the E-O boundary (EOB; 33.89 Ma), mainly due to a sharp decline in abundance of large-sized Reticulofenestra and Dictyococcites, occurring within a time span of similar to 47 kyr. Carbonate dissolution did not vary much across the EOB; thus, the decrease in abundance and size of nannofossils may reflect an overall decrease in their export production, which could have led to variations in the food availability for benthic foraminifers. The benthic foraminiferal assemblage data are consistent with a global decline in abundance of rectilinear species with complex apertures in the latest Eocene (similar to 34.5 Ma), potentially reflecting changes in the food source, i.e., phytoplankton. This was followed by a transient increased abundance of species indicative of seasonal delivery of food to the sea floor (Epistominella spp.; similar to 33.9-33.4 Ma), with a short peak in overall food delivery at the EOB (buliminid taxa; similar to 33.8 Ma). Increased abundance of Nuttallides umbonifera (at similar to 33.3 Ma) indicates the presence of more corrosive bottom waters and possibly the combined arrival of less food at the sea floor after the second step of cooling (Step 2). The most important changes in the calcareous nannofossil and benthic communities occurred similar to 120 kyr after the EOB. There was no major change in nannofossil abundance or assemblage composition at Site 1263 after Step 2 although benthic foraminifera indicate more corrosive bottom waters during this time. During the onset of latest-Eocene-earliest-Oligocene climate change, marine phytoplankton thus showed high sensitivity to fast-changing conditions as well as to a possibly enhanced, pulsed nutrient supply and to the crossing of a climatic threshold (e.g., pCO(2) decline, high-latitude cooling and changes in ocean circulation).
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17.
  • Bothe, O., et al. (författare)
  • Climate of the last millennium : ensemble consistency of simulations and reconstructions
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 9:3, s. 1089-1110
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Are simulations and reconstructions of past climate and its variability consistent with each other? We assess the consistency of simulations and reconstructions for the climate of the last millennium under the paradigm of a statistically indistinguishable ensemble. In this type of analysis, the null hypothesis is that reconstructions and simulations are statistically indistinguishable and, therefore, are exchangeable with each other. Ensemble consistency is assessed for Northern Hemisphere mean temperature, Central European mean temperature and for global temperature fields. Reconstructions available for these regions serve as verification data for a set of simulations of the climate of the last millennium performed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Consistency is generally limited to some sub-domains and some sub-periods. Only the ensemble simulated and reconstructed annual Central European mean temperatures for the second half of the last millennium demonstrates unambiguous consistency. Furthermore, we cannot exclude consistency of an ensemble of reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperature with the simulation ensemble mean. If we treat simulations and reconstructions as equitable hypotheses about past climate variability, the found general lack of their consistency weakens our confidence in inferences about past climate evolutions on the considered spatial and temporal scales. That is, our available estimates of past climate evolutions are on an equal footing but, as shown here, inconsistent with each other.
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18.
  • Bothe, Oliver, et al. (författare)
  • Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 11:12, s. 1673-1699
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Estimated external radiative forcings, model results, and proxy-based climate reconstructions have been used over the past several decades to improve our understanding of the mechanisms underlying observed climate variability and change over the past millennium. Here, the recent set of temperature reconstructions at the continental-scale generated by the PAGES 2k project and a collection of state-of-the-art model simulations driven by realistic external forcings are jointly analysed. The first aim is to estimate the consistency between model results and reconstructions for each continental-scale region over the time and frequency domains. Secondly, the links between regions are investigated to determine whether reconstructed global-scale covariability patterns are similar to those identified in model simulations. The third aim is to assess the role of external forcings in the observed temperature variations. From a large set of analyses, we conclude that models are in relatively good agreement with temperature reconstructions for Northern Hemisphere regions, particularly in the Arctic. This is likely due to the relatively large amplitude of the externally forced response across northern and high-latitude regions, which results in a clearly detectable signature in both reconstructions and simulations. Conversely, models disagree strongly with the reconstructions in the Southern Hemisphere. Furthermore, the simulations are more regionally coherent than the reconstructions, perhaps due to an underestimation of the magnitude of internal variability in models or to an overestimation of the response to the external forcing in the Southern Hemisphere. Part of the disagreement might also reflect large uncertainties in the reconstructions, specifically in some Southern Hemisphere regions, which are based on fewer palaeoclimate records than in the Northern Hemisphere.
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19.
  • Brandefelt, Jenny, et al. (författare)
  • A coupled climate model simulation of Marine Isotope Stage 3 stadial climate
  • 2011
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 7:2, s. 649-670
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We present a coupled global climate model (CGCM) simulation, integrated for 1500 yr to quasi-equilibrium, of a stadial (cold period) within Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3). The simulated Greenland stadial 12 (GS12; similar to 44 ka BP) annual global mean surface temperature (T-s) is 5.5 degrees C lower than in the simulated recent past (RP) climate and 1.3 degrees C higher than in the simulated Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 ka BP) climate. The simulated GS12 is evaluated against proxy data and previous modelling studies of MIS3 stadial climate. We show that the simulated MIS 3 climate, and hence conclusions drawn regarding the dynamics of this climate, is highly model-dependent. The main findings are: (i) Proxy sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are higher than simulated SSTs in the central North Atlantic, in contrast to earlier simulations of MIS 3 stadial climate in which proxy SSTs were found to be lower than simulated SST. (ii) The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) slows down by 50% in the GS12 climate as compared to the RP climate. This slowdown is attained without freshwater forcing in the North Atlantic region, a method used in other studies to force an AMOC shutdown. (iii) El-Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections in mean sea level pressure (MSLP) are significantly modified by GS12 and LGM forcing and boundary conditions. (iv) Both the mean state and variability of the simulated GS12 is dependent on the equilibration. The annual global mean T-s only changes by 0.10 degrees C from model years 500-599 to the last century of the simulation, indicating that the climate system may be close to equilibrium already after 500 yr of integration. However, significant regional differences between the last century of the simulation and model years 500-599 exist. Further, the difference between simulated and proxy SST is reduced from model years 500-599 to the last century of the simulation. The results of the ENSO variability analysis is also shown to depend on the equilibration.
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20.
  • Brierley, Chris M., et al. (författare)
  • Large-scale features and evaluation of the PMIP4-CMIP6 midHolocene simulations
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 16:5, s. 1847-1872
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) is a standard time period for the evaluation of the simulated response of global climate models using palaeoclimate reconstructions. The latest mid-Holocene simulations are a palaeoclimate entry card for the Palaeoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) component of the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) - hereafter referred to as PMIP4-CMIP6. Here we provide an initial analysis and evaluation of the results of the experiment for the mid-Holocene. We show that state-of-the-art models produce climate changes that are broadly consistent with theory and observations, including increased summer warming of the Northern Hemisphere and associated shifts in tropical rainfall. Many features of the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations were present in the previous generation (PMIP3-CMIP5) of simulations. The PMIP4-CMIP6 ensemble for the mid-Holocene has a global mean temperature change of -0.3 K, which is -0.2K cooler than the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations predominantly as a result of the prescription of realistic greenhouse gas concentrations in PMIP4-CMIP6. Biases in the magnitude and the sign of regional responses identified in PMIP3-CMIP5, such as the amplification of the northern African monsoon, precipitation changes over Europe, and simulated aridity in mid-Eurasia, are still present in the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations. Despite these issues, PMIP4-CMIP6 and the mid-Holocene provide an opportunity both for quantitative evaluation and derivation of emergent constraints on the hydrological cycle, feedback strength, and potentially climate sensitivity.
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21.
  • Brown, Josephine R., et al. (författare)
  • Comparison of past and future simulations of ENSO in CMIP5/PMIP3 and CMIP6/PMIP4 models
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 16:5, s. 1777-1805
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest mode of interannual climate variability in the current climate, influencing ecosystems, agriculture, and weather systems across the globe, but future projections of ENSO frequency and amplitude remain highly uncertain. A comparison of changes in ENSO in a range of past and future climate simulations can provide insights into the sensitivity of ENSO to changes in the mean state, including changes in the seasonality of incoming solar radiation, global average temperatures, and spatial patterns of sea surface temperatures. As a comprehensive set of coupled model simulations is now available for both palaeoclimate time slices (the Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene, and last interglacial) and idealised future warming scenarios (1 % per year CO2 increase, abrupt four-time CO2 increase), this allows a detailed evaluation of ENSO changes in this wide range of climates. Such a comparison can assist in constraining uncertainty in future projections, providing insights into model agreement and the sensitivity of ENSO to a range of factors. The majority of models simulate a consistent weakening of ENSO activity in the last interglacial and mid-Holocene experiments, and there is an ensemble mean reduction of variability in the western equatorial Pacific in the Last Glacial Maximum experiments. Changes in global temperature produce a weaker precipitation response to ENSO in the cold Last Glacial Maximum experiments and an enhanced precipitation response to ENSO in the warm increased CO2 experiments. No consistent relationship between changes in ENSO amplitude and annual cycle was identified across experiments.
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22.
  • Brugnara, Y., et al. (författare)
  • A collection of sub-daily pressure and temperature observations for the early instrumental period with a focus on the "year without a summer" 1816
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 11:8, s. 1027-1047
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The eruption of Mount Tambora (Indonesia) in April 1815 is the largest documented volcanic eruption in history. It is associated with a large global cooling during the following year, felt particularly in parts of Europe and North America, where the year 1816 became known as the "year without a summer". This paper describes an effort made to collect surface meteorological observations from the early instrumental period, with a focus on the years of and immediately following the eruption (1815–1817). Although the collection aimed in particular at pressure observations, correspondent temperature observations were also recovered. Some of the series had already been described in the literature, but a large part of the data, recently digitised from original weather diaries and contemporary magazines and newspapers, is presented here for the first time. The collection puts together more than 50 sub-daily series from land observatories in Europe and North America and from ships in the tropics. The pressure observations have been corrected for temperature and gravity and reduced to mean sea level. Moreover, an additional statistical correction was applied to take into account common error sources in mercury barometers. To assess the reliability of the corrected data set, the variance in the pressure observations is compared with modern climatologies, and single observations are used for synoptic analyses of three case studies in Europe. All raw observations will be made available to the scientific community in the International Surface Pressure Databank.
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23.
  • Bühler, Janica C., et al. (författare)
  • Investigating stable oxygen and carbon isotopic variability in speleothem records over the last millennium using multiple isotope-enabled climate models
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 18:7, s. 1625-1654
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The incorporation of water isotopologues into the hydrology of general circulation models (GCMs) facilitates the comparison between modeled and measured proxy data in paleoclimate archives. However, the variability and drivers of measured and modeled water isotopologues, as well as the diversity of their representation in different models, are not well constrained. Improving our understanding of this variability in past and present climates will help to better constrain future climate change projections and decrease their range of uncertainty. Speleothems are a precisely datable terrestrial paleoclimate archives and provide well-preserved (semi-)continuous multivariate isotope time series in the lower latitudes and mid-latitudes and are therefore well suited to assess climate and isotope variability on decadal and longer timescales. However, the relationships of speleothem oxygen and carbon isotopes to climate variables are influenced by site-specific parameters, and their comparison to GCMs is not always straightforward.Here we compare speleothem oxygen and carbon isotopic signatures from the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis database version 2 (SISALv2) to the output of five different water-isotope-enabled GCMs (ECHAM5-wiso, GISS-E2-R, iCESM, iHadCM3, and isoGSM) over the last millennium (850–1850 CE). We systematically evaluate differences and commonalities between the standardized model simulation outputs. The goal is to distinguish climatic drivers of variability for modeled isotopes and compare them to those of measured isotopes.We find strong regional differences in the oxygen isotope signatures between models that can partly be attributed to differences in modeled surface temperature. At low latitudes, precipitation amount is the dominant driver for stable water isotope variability; however, at cave locations the agreement between modeled temperature variability is higher than for precipitation variability. While modeled isotopic signatures at cave locations exhibited extreme events coinciding with changes in volcanic and solar forcing, such fingerprints are not apparent in the speleothem isotopes. This may be attributed to the lower temporal resolution of speleothem records compared to the events that are to be detected. Using spectral analysis, we can show that all models underestimate decadal and longer variability compared to speleothems (albeit to varying extents).We found that no model excels in all analyzed comparisons, although some perform better than the others in either mean or variability. Therefore, we advise a multi-model approach whenever comparing proxy data to modeled data. Considering karst and cave internal processes, e.g., through isotope-enabled karst models, may alter the variability in speleothem isotopes and play an important role in determining the most appropriate model. By exploring new ways of analyzing the relationship between the oxygen and carbon isotopes, their variability, and co-variability across timescales, we provide methods that may serve as a baseline for future studies with different models using, e.g., different isotopes, different climate archives, or different time periods.
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24.
  • Cao, Xianyong, et al. (författare)
  • Pollen-based quantitative land-cover reconstruction for northern Asia covering the last 40 ka cal BP
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus Gesellschaft MBH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 15:4, s. 1503-1536
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We collected the available relative pollen productivity estimates (PPEs) for 27 major pollen taxa from Eurasia and applied them to estimate plant abundances during the last 40 ka cal BP (calibrated thousand years before present) using pollen counts from 203 fossil pollen records in northern Asia (north of 40 degrees N). These pollen records were organized into 42 site groups and regional mean plant abundances calculated using the REVEALS (Regional Estimates of Vegetation Abundance from Large Sites) model. Time-series clustering, constrained hierarchical clustering, and detrended canonical correspondence analysis were performed to investigate the regional pattern, time, and strength of vegetation changes, respectively. Reconstructed regional plant functional type (PFT) components for each site group are generally consistent with modern vegetation in that vegetation changes within the regions are characterized by minor changes in the abundance of PFTs rather than by an increase in new PFTs, particularly during the Holocene. We argue that pollen-based REVEALS estimates of plant abundances should be a more reliable reflection of the vegetation as pollen may overestimate the turnover, particularly when a high pollen producer invades areas dominated by low pollen producers. Comparisons with vegetation-independent climate records show that climate change is the primary factor driving land-cover changes at broad spatial and temporal scales. Vegetation changes in certain regions or periods, however, could not be explained by direct climate change, e.g. inland Siberia, where a sharp increase in evergreen conifer tree abundance occurred at ca. 7-8 ka cal BP despite an unchanging climate, potentially reflecting their response to complex climate-permafrost-fire-vegetation interactions and thus a possible long-term lagged climate response.
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25.
  • Carlson, Henrik, et al. (författare)
  • Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 13:8, s. 1037-1048
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario) and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2-thin clouds or LCTC scenario). The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has similar to 11% greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Nino-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.
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26.
  • Cartier, Rosine, et al. (författare)
  • Diatom-oxygen isotope record from high-altitude Lake Petit (2200 m a.s.l.) in the Mediterranean Alps : Shedding light on a climatic pulse at 4.2 ka
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 15:1, s. 253-263
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • In the Mediterranean area, the 4.2 ka BP event is recorded with contrasting expressions between regions. In the southern Alps, the high-altitude Lake Petit (Mercantour Massif, France; 2200 m a.s.l.) offers pollen and diatom-rich sediments covering the last 4800 years. A multi-proxy analysis recently revealed a detrital pulse around 4200 cal BP due to increasing erosion in the lake catchment. The involvement of a rapid climate change leading to increasing runoff and soil erosion was proposed. Here, in order to clarify this hypothesis, we measured the oxygen isotope composition of diatom silica frustules (δ 18 O diatom ) from the same sedimentary core. Diatoms were analysed by laser fluorination isotope ratio mass spectrometry after an inert gas flow dehydration. We additionally enhanced the accuracy of the age-depth model using the Bacon R package. The δ 18 O diatom record allows us to identify a 500-year time lapse, from 4400 to 3900 cal BP, where δ 18 O diatom reached its highest values (> 31). δ 18 O diatom was about 3 ‰ higher than the modern values and the shifts at 4400 and 3900 cal BP were of similar amplitude as the seasonal δ 18 O diatom shifts occurring today. This period of high δ 18 O diatom values can be explained by the intensification of 18O-enriched Mediterranean precipitation events feeding the lake during the ice-free season. This agrees with other records from the southern Alps suggesting runoff intensification around 4200 cal BP. Possible changes in other climatic parameters may have played a concomitant role, including a decrease in the contribution of 18 Odepleted Atlantic winter precipitation to the lake water due to snow deficit. Data recording the 4.2 ka BP event in the northwestern Mediterranean area are still sparse. In the Lake Petit watershed, the 4.2 ka BP event translated into a change in precipitation regime from 4400 to 3900 cal BP. This record contributes to the recent efforts to characterize and investigate the geographical extent of the 4.2 ka BP event in the Mediterranean area.
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27.
  • Chapligin, B, et al. (författare)
  • A 250 ka oxygen isotope record from diatoms at Lake El'gygytgyn, far east Russian Arctic
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 8:5, s. 1621-1636
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • In 2003 sediment core Lz1024 was drilled at Lake El'gygytgyn, far east Russian Arctic, in an area of the Northern Hemisphere which has not been glaciated for the last 3.6 Ma. Biogenic silica was used for analysing the oxygen isotope composition (delta O-18(diatom)) in the upper 13m long section dating back about 250 ka with samples dominated by one taxa in the < 10 mu m fraction (Cyclotella ocellata). Downcore variations in delta O-18 values show that glacial-interglacial cycles are present throughout the core and delta O-18(diatom)-values are mainly controlled by delta O-18(precipitation). Changes reflect the Holocene Thermal Maximum, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the interglacial periods corresponding to MIS 5.5 and MIS 7 with a peak-to-peak amplitude between LGM and MIS 5.5 of Delta O-18=5.3 parts per thousand. This corresponds to a mean annual air temperature difference of about 9 degrees C. Our record is the first continuous delta O-18(diatom) record from an Arctic lake sediment core directly responding to precipitation and dating back more than 250 ka and correlates well with the stacked marine delta(18)OLR04 (r = 0.58) and delta D EPICA Dome-C record (r = 0.69). With delta O-18 results indicating strong links to both marine and ice-core records, records from Lake El'gygytgyn can be used to further investigate the sensitivity of the Arctic climate to both past and future global climatic changes.
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28.
  • Charpentier Ljungqvist, Fredrik, 1982-, et al. (författare)
  • Climatic signatures in early modern European grain harvest yields
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 19:12, s. 2463-2491
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The association between climate variability and grain harvest yields has been an important component of food security and economy in European history. Yet, inter-regional comparisons of climate–yield relationships have been hampered by locally varying data types and the use of different statistical methods. Using a coherent statistical framework, considering the effects of diverse serial correlations on statistical significance, we assess the temperature and hydroclimate (precipitation and drought) signatures in grain harvest yields across varying environmental settings of early modern (ca. 1500–1800) Europe. An unprecedentedly large network of yield records from northern (Sweden), central (Switzerland), and southern (Spain) Europe are compared with a diverse set of seasonally and annually resolved palaeoclimate reconstructions. Considering the effects of different crop types and time series frequencies, we find within regions consistent climate–harvest yield associations characterized by a significant summer soil moisture signal in Sweden, winter temperature and precipitation signals in Switzerland, and spring and annual mean temperature signals in Spain. The regional-scale climate–harvest associations are weaker than the recently revealed climate signals in early modern grain prices but similar in strength to modern climate–harvest relationships at comparable spatial scales. This is a noteworthy finding considering the uncertainties inherent in both historical harvest and palaeoclimate data.
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29.
  • Charpentier Ljungqvist, Fredrik, 1982-, et al. (författare)
  • Northern Hemisphere temperature patterns in the last 12 centuries
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 8, s. 227-249
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We analyse the spatio-temporal patterns of temperature variability over Northern Hemisphere land areas, on centennial time-scales, for the last 12 centuries using an unprecedentedly large network of temperature-sensitive proxy records. Geographically widespread positive temperature anomalies are observed from the 9th to 11th centuries, similar in extent and magnitude to the 20th century mean. A dominance of widespread negative anomalies is observed from the 16th to 18th centuries. Though we find the amplitude and spatial extent of the 20th century warming is within the range of natural variability over the last 12 centuries, we also find that the rate of warming from the 19th to the 20th century is unprecedented in the context of the last 1200 yr. The positive Northern Hemisphere temperature change from the 19th to the 20th century is clearly the largest between any two consecutive centuries in the past 12 centuries. These results remain robust even after removing a significant number of proxies in various tests of robustness showing that the choice of proxies has no particular influence on the overall conclusions of this study.
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30.
  • Christiansen, Bo, et al. (författare)
  • The extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere temperature in the last two millennia : reconstructions of low-frequency variability
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 8:2, s. 765-786
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We present two new multi-proxy reconstructions of the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere (30–90° N) mean temperature: a two-millennia long reconstruction reaching back to 1 AD and a 500-yr long reconstruction reaching back to 1500 AD.  The reconstructions are based on compilations of 32 and 91 proxies, respectively, of which only little more than half pass a screening procedure and are included in the actual reconstructions.  The proxies are of different types and of different resolutions (annual, annual-to-decadal, and decadal) but all have previously been shown to relate to local or regional temperature. We use a reconstruction method, LOCal (LOC), that recently has been shown to confidently reproduce low-frequency variability. Confidence intervals are obtained by an ensemble pseudo-proxy method that both estimates the variance and the bias of the reconstructions.  The two-millennia long reconstruction shows a well defined Medieval Warm Period, with a peak warming ca. 950–1050 AD reaching 0.6 °C relative to the reference period 1880–1960 AD. The 500-yr long reconstruction confirms previous results obtained with the LOC method applied to a smaller proxy compilation; in particular it shows the Little Ice Age cumulating in 1580–1720 AD with a temperature minimum of −1.0 °C below the reference period.  The reconstructed local temperatures, the magnitude of which are subject to wide confidence intervals, show a rather geographically homogeneous Little Ice Age, while more geographical inhomogeneities are found for the Medieval Warm Period. Reconstructions based on different subsets of proxies show only small differences, suggesting that LOC reconstructs 50-yr smoothed extra-tropical NH mean temperatures well and that low-frequency noise in the proxies is a relatively small problem.
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31.
  • Comas-Bru, Laia, et al. (författare)
  • Evaluating model outputs using integrated global speleothem records of climate change since the last glacial
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 15:4, s. 1557-1579
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Although quantitative isotope data from speleothems has been used to evaluate isotope-enabled model simulations, currently no consensus exists regarding the most appropriate methodology through which to achieve this. A number of modelling groups will be running isotope-enabled palaeoclimate simulations in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, so it is timely to evaluate different approaches to using the speleothem data for data-model comparisons. Here, we illustrate this using 456 globally distributed speleothem delta O-18 records from an updated version of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis (SISAL) database and palaeoclimate simulations generated using the ECHAM5-wiso isotope-enabled atmospheric circulation model. We show that the SISAL records reproduce the first-order spatial patterns of isotopic variability in the modern day, strongly supporting the application of this dataset for evaluating model-derived isotope variability into the past. However, the discontinuous nature of many speleothem records complicates the process of procuring large numbers of records if data-model comparisons are made using the traditional approach of comparing anomalies between a control period and a given palaeoclimate experiment. To circumvent this issue, we illustrate techniques through which the absolute isotope values during any time period could be used for model evaluation. Specifically, we show that speleothem isotope records allow an assessment of a model's ability to simulate spatial isotopic trends. Our analyses provide a protocol for using speleothem isotope data for model evaluation, including screening the observations to take into account the impact of speleothem mineralogy on delta O-18 values, the optimum period for the modern observational baseline and the selection of an appropriate time window for creating means of the isotope data for palaeo-time-slices.
  •  
32.
  • Cronin, Thomas M., et al. (författare)
  • Deglacial sea level history of the East Siberian Sea and Chukchi Sea margins
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 13:9, s. 1097-1110
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Deglacial (12.8-10.7 ka) sea level history on the East Siberian continental shelf and upper continental slope was reconstructed using new geophysical records and sediment cores taken during Leg 2 of the 2014 SWERUS-C3 expedition. The focus of this study is two cores from Herald Canyon, piston core SWERUS-L2-4-PC1 (4-PC1) and multicore SWERUS-L2-4-MC1 (4-MC1), and a gravity core from an East Siberian Sea transect, SWERUS-L2-20-GC1 (20GC1). Cores 4-PC1 and 20-GC were taken at 120 and 115m of modern water depth, respectively, only a few meters above the global last glacial maximum (LGM; similar to 24 kiloannum or ka) minimum sea level of similar to 125-130 meters below sea level (m b.s.l.). Using calibrated radiocarbon ages mainly on molluscs for chronology and the ecology of benthic foraminifera and ostracode species to estimate paleodepths, the data reveal a dominance of river-proximal species during the early part of the Younger Dryas event (YD, Greenland Stadial GS-1) followed by a rise in river-intermediate species in the late Younger Dryas or the early Holocene (Preboreal) period. A rapid relative sea level rise beginning at roughly 11.4 to 10.8 ka (similar to 400 cm of core depth) is indicated by a sharp faunal change and unconformity or condensed zone of sedimentation. Regional sea level at this time was about 108m b.s.l. at the 4-PC1 site and 102m b.s.l. at 20-GC1. Regional sea level near the end of the YD was up to 42-47m lower than predicted by geophysical models corrected for glacio-isostatic adjustment. This discrepancy could be explained by delayed isostatic adjustment caused by a greater volume and/or geo-graphical extent of glacial-age land ice and/or ice shelves in the western Arctic Ocean and adjacent Siberian land areas.
  •  
33.
  • Cunningham, L., et al. (författare)
  • Amplified bioproductivity during Transition IV (332 000-342 000 yr ago) : evidence from the geochemical record of Lake El'gygytgyn
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - Gottingen, Germany : COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 9:2, s. 679-686
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • To date, terrestrial archives of long-term climatic change within the Arctic have widely been restricted to ice cores from Greenland and, more recently, sediments from Lake El'gygytgyn in northeast Arctic Russia. Sediments from this lake contain a paleoclimate record of glacial-interglacial cycles during the last three million years. Low-resolution studies at this lake have suggested that changes observed during Transition IV (the transition from marine isotope stage (MIS) 10 to MIS 9) are of greater amplitude than any observed since. In this study, geochemical parameters are used to infer past climatic conditions thus providing the first high-resolution analyses of Transition IV from a terrestrial Arctic setting. These results demonstrate that a significant shift in climate was subsequently followed by a rapid increase in biogenic silica (BSi) production. Following this sharp increase, bioproductivity remained high, but variable, for over a thousand years. This study reveals differences in the timing and magnitude of change within the ratio of silica to titanium (Si/Ti) and BSi records that would not be apparent in lower resolution studies. This has significant implications for the increasingly common use of Si/Ti data as an alternative to traditional BSi measurements.
  •  
34.
  • Czymzik, Markus, et al. (författare)
  • Solar modulation of flood frequency in central Europe during spring and summer on interannual to multi-centennial timescales
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 12:3, s. 799-805
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Solar influences on climate variability are one of the most controversially discussed topics in climate research. We analyze solar forcing of flood frequency in central Europe during spring and summer on interannual to multi-centennial timescales, integrating daily discharge data of the River Ammer (southern Germany) back to AD1926 (∼solar cycles 16-23) and the 5500-year flood layer record from varved sediments of the downstream Ammersee. Flood frequency in the River Ammer discharge record is significantly correlated to changes in solar activity when the flood record lags the solar signal by 2-3 years (2-year lag: r = -0:375, p = 0:01; 3-year lag: r = -0:371, p = 0:03). Flood layer frequency in the Ammersee sediment record depicts distinct multi-decadal variations and significant correlations to a total solar irradiance reconstruction (r = -0:4, p <0.0001) and 14C production rates (r = 0:37, p <0.0001), reflecting changes in solar activity. On all timescales, flood frequency is higher when solar activity is reduced. In addition, the configuration of atmospheric circulation associated with periods of increased River Ammer flood frequency broadly resembles that during intervals of reduced solar activity, as expected to be induced by the so-called solar top-down mechanism by model studies. Both atmospheric patterns are characterized by an increase in meridional airflow associated with enhanced atmospheric blocking over central Europe. Therefore, the significant correlations as well as similar atmospheric circulation patterns might provide empirical support for a solar influence on hydroclimate extremes in central Europe during spring and summer by the so-called solar top-down mechanism.
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35.
  • Czymzik, Markus, et al. (författare)
  • Synchronizing 10Be in two varved lake sediment records to IntCal13 14C during three grand solar minima
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 14:5, s. 687-696
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Timescale uncertainties between paleoclimate reconstructions often inhibit studying the exact timing, spatial expression and driving mechanisms of climate variations. Detecting and aligning the globally common cosmogenic radionuclide production signal via a curve fitting method provides a tool for the quasi-continuous synchronization of paleoclimate archives. In this study, we apply this approach to synchronize Be-10 records from varved sediments of Tiefer See and Lake Czechowskie covering the Maunder, Homeric and 5500 a BP grand solar minima with C-14 production rates inferred from the IntCal13 calibration curve. Our analyses indicate best fits with C-14 production rates when the Be-10 records from Tiefer See were shifted for 8 (-12/+4) (Maunder Minimum), 31 (-16/+12) (Homeric Minimum) and 86 (-22/+18) years (5500 a BP grand solar minimum) towards the past. The best fit between the Lake Czechowskie Be-10 record for the 5500 a BP grand solar minimum and C-14 production was obtained when the Be-10 time series was shifted 29 (-8/+7) years towards present. No significant fits were detected between the Lake Czechowskie Be-10 records for the Maunder and Homeric minima and C-14 production, likely due to intensified in-lake sediment resuspension since about 2800 a BP, transporting "old" Be-10 to the coring location. Our results provide a proof of concept for facilitating Be-10 in varved lake sediments as a novel synchronization tool required for investigating leads and lags of proxy responses to climate variability. However, they also point to some limitations of Be-10 in these archives, mainly connected to in-lake sediment resuspension processes.
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36.
  • Dallmeyer, Anne, et al. (författare)
  • The challenge of comparing pollen-based quantitative vegetation reconstructions with outputs from vegetation models - a European perspective
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus Publications. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 19:7, s. 1531-1557
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We compare Holocene tree cover changes in Europe derived from a transient Earth system model simulation (Max Planck Institute Earth System Model - MPI-ESM1.2, including the land surface and dynamic vegetation model JSBACH) with high-spatial-resolution time slice simulations performed in the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) and pollen-based quantitative reconstructions of tree cover based on the REVEALS (Regional Estimates of Vegetation Abundance from Large Sites) model. The dynamic vegetation models and REVEALS agree with respect to the general temporal trends in tree cover for most parts of Europe, with a large tree cover during the mid-Holocene and a substantially smaller tree cover closer to the present time. However, the decrease in tree cover in REVEALS starts much earlier than in the models, indicating much earlier anthropogenic deforestation than the prescribed land use in the models. While LPJ-GUESS generally overestimates tree cover compared to the reconstructions, MPI-ESM indicates lower percentages of tree cover than REVEALS, particularly in central Europe and the British Isles. A comparison of the simulated climate with chironomid-based climate reconstructions reveals that model-data mismatches in tree cover are in most cases not driven by biases in the climate. Instead, sensitivity experiments indicate that the model results strongly depend on the tuning of the models regarding natural disturbance regimes (e.g. fire and wind throw). The frequency and strength of disturbances are - like most of the parameters in the vegetation models - static and calibrated to modern conditions. However, these parameter values may not be valid for past climate and vegetation states totally different from today's. In particular, the mid-Holocene natural forests were probably more stable and less sensitive to disturbances than present-day forests that are heavily altered by human interventions. Our analysis highlights the fact that such model settings are inappropriate for paleo-simulations and complicate model-data comparisons with additional challenges. Moreover, our study suggests that land use is the main driver of forest decline in Europe during the mid-Holocene and late Holocene.
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37.
  • Davies, Frazer J., et al. (författare)
  • The impact of Sahara desertification on Arctic cooling during the Holocene
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 11:3, s. 571-586
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Since the start of the Holocene, temperatures in the Arctic have steadily declined. This has been accredited to the orbitally forced decrease in summer insolation reconstructed over the same period. However, here we present climate modelling results from an Earth model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) that indicate that 17–40% of the cooling in the Arctic, over the period 9–0 ka, was a direct result of the desertification that occurred in the Sahara after the termination of the African Humid Period. We have performed a suite of sensitivity experiments to analyse the impact of different combinations of forcings, including various vegetation covers in the Sahara. Our simulations suggest that over the course of the Holocene, a strong increase in surface albedo in the Sahara as a result of desertification led to a regional increase in surface pressure, a weakening of the trade winds, the westerlies and the polar easterlies, which in turn reduced the meridional heat transported by the atmosphere to the Arctic. We conclude that during interglacials, the climate of the Northern Hemisphere is sensitive to changes in Sahara vegetation type.
  •  
38.
  • de Nooijer, Wesley, et al. (författare)
  • Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 16:6, s. 2325-2341
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Palaeoclimate simulations improve our understanding of the climate, inform us about the performance of climate models in a different climate scenario, and help to identify robust features of the climate system. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), derived from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates Arctic (60-90 degrees N) annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increases of 3.7 to 11.6 degrees C compared to the pre-industrial period, with a multimodel mean (MMM) increase of 7.2 degrees C. The Arctic warming amplification ratio relative to global SAT anomalies in the ensemble ranges from 1.8 to 3.1 (MMM is 2.3). Sea ice extent anomalies range from -3.0 to -10.4 x 10(6) km(2), with a MMM anomaly of -5.6 x 10 6 km(2), which constitutes a decrease of 53 % compared to the pre-industrial period. The majority (11 out of 16) of models simulate summer seaice-free conditions (<= 1 x 10(6) km(2)) in their mPWP simulation. The ensemble tends to underestimate SAT in the Arctic when compared to available reconstructions, although the degree of underestimation varies strongly between the simulations. The simulations with the highest Arctic SAT anomalies tend to match the proxy dataset in its current form better. The ensemble shows some agreement with reconstructions of sea ice, particularly with regard to seasonal sea ice. Large uncertainties limit the confidence that can be placed in the findings and the compatibility of the different proxy datasets. We show that while reducing uncertainties in the reconstructions could decrease the SAT data-model discord substantially, further improvements are likely to be found in enhanced boundary conditions or model physics. Lastly, we compare the Arctic warming in the mPWP to projections of future Arctic warming and find that the PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates greater Arctic amplification than CMIP5 future climate simulations and an increase instead of a decrease in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength compared to pre-industrial period. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in equilibrium climate simulations, and that caution must be taken when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.
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39.
  • Dinauer, Ashley, et al. (författare)
  • Mysteriously high I14C of the glacial atmosphere : Influence of 14C production and carbon cycle changes
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 16:4, s. 1159-1185
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Despite intense focus on the span classCombining double low lineinline-formulag1/4190/span drop in atmospheric span classCombining double low lineinline-formulaI14C/span during Heinrich Stadial 1 at span classCombining double low lineinline-formulag1/417.4/span-14.6 span classCombining double low lineinline-formulaka/span, the specific mechanisms responsible for the apparent span classCombining double low lineinline-formulaI14C/span excess in the glacial atmosphere have received considerably less attention. The computationally efficient Bern3D Earth system model of intermediate complexity, designed for long-term climate simulations, allows us to address a very fundamental but still elusive question concerning the atmospheric span classCombining double low lineinline-formulaI14C/span record: how can we explain the persistence of relatively high span classCombining double low lineinline-formulaI14C/span values during the millennia after the Laschamp event? Large uncertainties in the pre-Holocene span classCombining double low lineinline-formula14C/span production rate, as well as in the older portion of the span classCombining double low lineinline-formulaI14C/span record, complicate our qualitative and quantitative interpretation of the glacial span classCombining double low lineinline-formulaI14C/span elevation. Here we begin with sensitivity experiments that investigate the controls on atmospheric span classCombining double low lineinline-formulaI14C/span in idealized settings. We show that the interaction with the ocean sediments may be much more important to the simulation of span classCombining double low lineinline-formulaI14C/span than had been previously thought. In order to provide a bounded estimate of glacial span classCombining double low lineinline-formulaI14C/span change, the Bern3D model was integrated with five available estimates of the span classCombining double low lineinline-formula14C/span production rate as well as reconstructed and hypothetical paleoclimate forcing. Model results demonstrate that none of the available reconstructions of past changes in span classCombining double low lineinline-formula14C/span production can reproduce the elevated span classCombining double low lineinline-formulaI14C/span levels during the last glacial. In order to increase atmospheric span classCombining double low lineinline-formulaI14C/span to glacial levels, a drastic reduction of air-sea exchange efficiency in the polar regions must be assumed, though discrepancies remain for the portion of the record younger than span classCombining double low lineinline-formulag1/433/span span classCombining double low lineinline-formulaka/span. We end with an illustration of how the span classCombining double low lineinline-formula14C/span production rate would have had to evolve to be consistent with the span classCombining double low lineinline-formulaI14C/span record by combining an atmospheric radiocarbon budget with the Bern3D model. The overall conclusion is that the remaining discrepancies with respect to glacial span classCombining double low lineinline-formulaI14C/span may be linked to an underestimation of span classCombining double low lineinline-formula14C/span production and/or a biased-high reconstruction of span classCombining double low lineinline-formulaI14C/span over the time period of interest. Alternatively, we appear to still be missing an important carbon cycle process for atmospheric span classCombining double low lineinline-formulaI14C/span.
  •  
40.
  • Donges, Jonathan F., et al. (författare)
  • Non-linear regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon variability : potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 11:5, s. 709-741
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The Asian monsoon system is an important tipping element in Earth's climate with a large impact on human societies in the past and present. In light of the potentially severe impacts of present and future anthropogenic climate change on Asian hydrology, it is vital to understand the forcing mechanisms of past climatic regime shifts in the Asian monsoon domain. Here we use novel recurrence network analysis techniques for detecting episodes with pronounced non-linear changes in Holocene Asian monsoon dynamics recorded in speleothems from caves distributed throughout the major branches of the Asian monsoon system. A newly developed multi-proxy methodology explicitly considers dating uncertainties with the COPRA (COnstructing Proxy Records from Age models) approach and allows for detection of continental-scale regime shifts in the complexity of monsoon dynamics. Several epochs are characterised by non-linear regime shifts in Asian monsoon variability, including the periods around 8.5-7.9, 5.7-5.0, 4.1-3.7, and 3.0-2.4 ka BP. The timing of these regime shifts is consistent with known episodes of Holocene rapid climate change (RCC) and high-latitude Bond events. Additionally, we observe a previously rarely reported non-linear regime shift around 7.3 ka BP, a timing that matches the typical 1.0-1.5 ky return intervals of Bond events. A detailed review of previously suggested links between Holocene climatic changes in the Asian monsoon domain and the archaeological record indicates that, in addition to previously considered longer-term changes in mean monsoon intensity and other climatic parameters, regime shifts in monsoon complexity might have played an important role as drivers of migration, pronounced cultural changes, and the collapse of ancient human societies.
  •  
41.
  • Erhardt, Tobias, et al. (författare)
  • Decadal-scale progression of the onset of Dansgaard-Oeschger warming events
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 15:2, s. 811-825
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • During the last glacial period, proxy records throughout the Northern Hemisphere document a succession of rapid millennial-scale warming events, called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. A range of different mechanisms has been proposed that can produce similar warming in model experiments; however, the progression and ultimate trigger of the events are still unknown. Because of their fast nature, the progression is challenging to reconstruct from paleoclimate data due to the limited temporal resolution achievable in many archives and cross-dating uncertainties between records. Here, we use new high-resolution multi-proxy records of sea-salt (derived from sea spray and sea ice over the North Atlantic) and terrestrial (derived from the central Asian deserts) aerosol concentrations over the period 10-60 ka from the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) and North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) ice cores in conjunction with local precipitation and temperature proxies from the NGRIP ice core to investigate the progression of environmental changes at the onset of the warming events at annual to multi-annual resolution. Our results show on average a small lead of the changes in both local precipitation and terrestrial dust aerosol concentrations over the change in sea-salt aerosol concentrations and local temperature of approximately one decade. This suggests that, connected to the reinvigoration of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and the warming in the North Atlantic, both synoptic and hemispheric atmospheric circulation changes at the onset of the DO warming, affecting both the moisture transport to Greenland and the Asian monsoon systems. Taken at face value, this suggests that a collapse of the sea-ice cover may not have been the initial trigger for the DO warming.
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42.
  • Farmer, Jesse R., et al. (författare)
  • A 600 kyr reconstruction of deep Arctic seawater δ18O from benthic foraminiferal δ18O and ostracode Mg / Ca paleothermometry
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 19:3, s. 555-578
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The oxygen isotopic composition of benthic foraminiferal tests (δ18Ob) is one of the pre-eminent tools for correlating marine sediments and interpreting past terrestrial ice volume and deep-ocean temperatures. Despite the prevalence of δ18Ob applications to marine sediment cores over the Quaternary, its use is limited in the Arctic Ocean because of low benthic foraminiferal abundances, challenges with constructing independent sediment core age models, and an apparent muted amplitude of Arctic δ18Ob variability compared to open-ocean records. Here we evaluate the controls on Arctic δ18Ob by using ostracode  paleothermometry to generate a composite record of the δ18O of seawater (δ18Osw) from 12 sediment cores in the intermediate to deep Arctic Ocean (700–2700 m) that covers the last 600 kyr based on biostratigraphy and orbitally tuned age models. Results show that Arctic δ18Ob was generally higher than open-ocean δ18Ob during interglacials but was generally equivalent to global reference records during glacial periods. The reduced glacial–interglacial Arctic δ18Ob range resulted in part from the opposing effect of temperature, with intermediate to deep Arctic warming during glacials counteracting the whole-ocean δ18Osw increase from expanded terrestrial ice sheets. After removing the temperature effect from δ18Ob, we find that the intermediate to deep Arctic experienced large (≥1 ‰) variations in local δ18Osw, with generally higher local δ18Osw during interglacials and lower δ18Osw during glacials. Both the magnitude and timing of low local δ18Osw intervals are inconsistent with the recent proposal of freshwater intervals in the Arctic Ocean during past glaciations. Instead, we suggest that lower local δ18Osw in the intermediate to deep Arctic Ocean during glaciations reflected weaker upper-ocean stratification and more efficient transport of low-δ18Osw Arctic surface waters to depth by mixing and/or brine rejection.
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43.
  • Frank, U., et al. (författare)
  • A 350 ka record of climate change from Lake El'gygytgyn, Far East Russian Arctic : refining the pattern of climate modes by means of cluster analysis
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 9:4, s. 1559-1569
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Rock magnetic, biochemical and inorganic records of the sediment cores PG1351 and Lz1024 from Lake El'gygytgyn, Chukotka peninsula, Far East Russian Arctic, were subject to a hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis in order to refine and extend the pattern of climate modes as defined by Melles et al. (2007). Cluster analysis of the data obtained from both cores yielded similar results, differentiating clearly between the four climate modes warm, peak warm, cold and dry, and cold and moist. In addition, two transitional phases were identified, representing the early stages of a cold phase and slightly colder conditions during a warm phase. The statistical approach can thus be used to resolve gradual changes in the sedimentary units as an indicator of available oxygen in the hypolimnion in greater detail. Based upon cluster analyses on core Lz1024, the published succession of climate modes in core PG1351, covering the last 250 ka, was modified and extended back to 350 ka. Comparison to the marine oxygen isotope (delta O-18) stack LR04 (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005) and the summer insolation at 67.5 degrees N, with the extended Lake El'gygytgyn parameter records of magnetic susceptibility (kappa(LF)), total organic carbon content (TOC) and the chemical index of alteration (CIA; Minyuk et al., 2007), revealed that all stages back to marine isotope stage (MIS) 10 and most of the substages are clearly reflected in the pattern derived from the cluster analysis.
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44.
  • Gaillard, Marie-José, 1953-, et al. (författare)
  • Holocene land-cover reconstructions for studies on land cover-climate feedbacks
  • 2010
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 6, s. 483-499
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The major objectives of this paper are: (1) to review the pros and cons of the scenarios of past anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) developed during the last ten years, (2) to discuss issues related to pollen-based reconstruction of the past land-cover and introduce a new method, REVEALS (Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Sites), to infer long-term records of past land-cover from pollen data, (3) to present a new project (LANDCLIM: LAND cover – CLIMate interactions in NW Europe during the Holocene) currently underway, and show preliminary results of REVEALS reconstructions of the regional land-cover in the Czech Republic for five selected time windows of the Holocene, and (4) to discuss the implications and future directions in climate and vegetation/land-cover modeling, and in the assessment of the effects of human-induced changes in land-cover on the regional climate through altered feedbacks. The existing ALCC scenarios show large discrepancies between them, and few cover time periods older than AD 800. When these scenarios are used to assess the impact of human land-use on climate, contrasting results are obtained. It emphasizes the need for methods such as the REVEALS model-based land-cover reconstructions. They might help to fine-tune descriptions of past land-cover and lead to a better understanding of how long-term changes in ALCC might have influenced climate. The REVEALS model is demonstrated to provide better estimates of the regional vegetation/landcover changes than the traditional use of pollen percentages. This will achieve a robust assessment of land cover at regional- to continental-spatial scale throughout the Holocene. We present maps of REVEALS estimates for the percentage cover of 10 plant functional types (PFTs) at 200 BP and 6000 BP, and of the two open-land PFTs “grassland” and “agricultural land” at five time-windows from 6000 BP to recent time. The LANDCLIM results are expected to provide crucial data to reassess ALCC estimates for a better understanding of the land suface-atmosphere interactions.
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45.
  • Gemery, Laura, et al. (författare)
  • Central Arctic Ocean paleoceanography from similar to 50 ka to present, on the basis of ostracode faunal assemblages from the SWERUS 2014 expedition
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 13:11, s. 1473-1489
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Late Quaternary paleoceanographic changes at the Lomonosov Ridge, central Arctic Ocean, were reconstructed from a multicore and gravity core recovered during the 2014 SWERUS-C3 Expedition. Ostracode assemblages dated by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) indicate changing sea-ice conditions and warm Atlantic Water (AW) inflow to the Arctic Ocean from similar to 50 ka to present. Key taxa used as environmental indicators include Acetabulastoma arcticum (perennial sea ice), Polycope spp. (variable sea-ice margins, high surface productivity), Krithe hunti (Arctic Ocean deep water), and Rabilimis mirabilis (water mass change/AWinflow). Results indicate periodic seasonally sea-ice-free conditions during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 (similar to 57-29 ka), rapid deglacial changes in water mass conditions (15-11 ka), seasonally sea-ice-free conditions during the early Holocene (similar to 10-7 ka) and perennial sea ice during the late Holocene. Comparisons with faunal records from other cores from the Mendeleev and Lomonosov ridges suggest generally similar patterns, although sea-ice cover during the Last Glacial Maximum may have been less extensive at the new Lomonosov Ridge core site (similar to 85.15 degrees N, 152 degrees E) than farther north and towards Greenland. The new data provide evidence for abrupt, large-scale shifts in ostracode species depth and geographical distributions during rapid climatic transitions.
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46.
  • Goldner, A., et al. (författare)
  • Does Antarctic glaciation cool the world?
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 9:1, s. 173-189
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • In this study, we compare the simulated climatic impact of adding an Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to the greenhouse world of the Eocene and removing the AIS from the modern world. The modern global mean surface temperature anomaly (Delta T) induced by Antarctic Glaciation depends on the background CO2 levels and ranges from -1.22 to -0.18 K. The Eocene Delta T is nearly constant at similar to-0.25 K. We calculate an climate sensitivity parameter S[Antarctica] which we define as Delta T divided by the change in effective radiative forcing (Delta Q(Antarctica)) which includes some fast feedbacks imposed by prescribing the glacial properties of Antarctica. The main difference between the modern and Eocene responses is that a negative cloud feedback warms much of the Earth's surface as a large AIS is introduced in the Eocene, whereas this cloud feedback is weakly positive and acts in combination with positive sea-ice feedbacks to enhance cooling introduced by adding an ice sheet in the modern. Because of the importance of cloud feedbacks in determining the final temperature sensitivity of the AIS, our results are likely to be model dependent. Nevertheless, these model results suggest that the effective radiative forcing and feedbacks induced by the AIS did not significantly decrease global mean surface temperature across the Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT -34.1 to 33.6 Ma) and that other factors like declining atmospheric CO2 are more important for cooling across the EOT. The results illustrate that the efficacy of AIS forcing in the Eocene is not necessarily close to one and is likely to be model and state dependent. This implies that using EOT paleoclimate proxy data by itself to estimate climate sensitivity for future climate prediction requires climate models and consequently these estimates will have large uncertainty, largely due to uncertainties in modelling low clouds.
  •  
47.
  • Goldner, Aaron, et al. (författare)
  • Implications of the permanent El Niño teleconnection "blueprint" for past global and North American hydroclimatology
  • 2011
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 7, s. 723-743
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Substantial evidence exists for wetter-than-modern continental conditions in North America during the pre-Quaternary warm climate intervals. This is in apparent conflict with the robust global prediction for future climate change of a northward expansion of the subtropical dry zones that should drive aridification of many semiarid regions.  Indeed,      areas of expected future aridification include much of western North America, where extensive paleoenvironmental records are documented to have been much wetter before the onset of Quaternary ice ages. It has also been proposed that climates previous to the Quaternary may have been characterized as being in a state with warmer-than-modern eastern equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs).  Because equatorial Pacific SSTs exert strong controls on midlatitude atmospheric circulation and the global hydrologic cycle,      the teleconnected response from this permanent El Niño-like mean state has been proposed as a useful analogue model, or "blueprint", for understanding global climatological anomalies in the past.  The present study quantitatively explores the implications of this blueprint for past climates with a specific focus on the Miocene and Pliocene, using a global climate model (CAM3.0) and a nested high-resolution climate model (RegCM3) to study the      hydrologic impacts on global and North American climate  of a change in mean SSTs resembling that which occurs during modern El Niño events. We find that the global circulation response to a permanent El Niño resembles a large, long El Niño event. This state also exhibits equatorial super-rotation, which would represent a fundamental change to the tropical circulations.  We also find a southward shift in winter storm tracks in the Pacific and Atlantic, which affects precipitation and temperature over the mid-latitudes.  In addition, summertime precipitation increases over the majority of the continental United States.  These increases in precipitation are controlled by shifts in the subtropical jet and secondary atmospheric feedbacks. Based on these results and the data proxy comparison, we conclude that a permanent El Niño like state is one potential explanation of wetter-than-modern conditions observed in paleoclimate-proxy records, particularly over the western United States.
  •  
48.
  • Guglielmin, Mauro, et al. (författare)
  • Ground surface temperature reconstruction for the last 500 years obtained from permafrost temperatures observed in the Share Stelvio borehole, Italian Alps
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 14, s. 709-724
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Abstract. Here we present the results of the inversion of a multi-annual temperature profile (2013, 2014, 2015) of the deepest borehole (235 m) in the mountain permafrost of the world located close to Stelvio Pass in the Central Italian Alps. The SHARE STELVIO Borehole (SSB) has been monitored since 2010 with 13 thermistors placed at different depths between 20 and 235 m. The negligible porosity of the rock (dolostone,  <  5 %) allows us to assume the latent heat effects are also negligible. The inversion model proposed here is based on the Tikhonov regularization applied to a discretized heat equation, accompanied by a novel regularizing penalty operator. The general pattern of ground surface temperatures (GSTs) reconstructed from SSB for the last 500 years is similar to the mean annual air temperature (MAAT) reconstructions for the European Alps. The main difference with respect to MAAT reconstructions relates to post Little Ice Age (LIA) events. Between 1940 and 1989, SSB data indicate a cooling of ca. 1 °C. Subsequently, a rapid and abrupt GST warming (more than 0.8 °C per decade) was recorded between 1990 and 2011. This warming is of the same magnitude as the increase in MAAT between 1990 and 2000 recorded in central Europe and roughly doubling the increase in MAAT in the Alps.
  •  
49.
  • Han, Zixuan, et al. (författare)
  • Evaluating the large-scale hydrological cycle response within the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) ensemble
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 17:6, s. 2537-2558
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The mid-Pliocene (∼3 Ma) is one of the most recent warm periods with high CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and resulting high temperatures, and it is often cited as an analog for near-term future climate change. Here, we apply a moisture budget analysis to investigate the response of the large-scale hydrological cycle at low latitudes within a 13-model ensemble from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The results show that increased atmospheric moisture content within the mid-Pliocene ensemble (due to the thermodynamic effect) results in wetter conditions over the deep tropics, i.e., the Pacific intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the Maritime Continent, and drier conditions over the subtropics. Note that the dynamic effect plays a more important role than the thermodynamic effect in regional precipitation minus evaporation (PmE) changes (i.e., northward ITCZ shift and wetter northern Indian Ocean). The thermodynamic effect is offset to some extent by a dynamic effect involving a northward shift of the Hadley circulation that dries the deep tropics and moistens the subtropics in the Northern Hemisphere (i.e., the subtropical Pacific). From the perspective of Earth's energy budget, the enhanced southward cross-equatorial atmospheric transport (0.22 PW), induced by the hemispheric asymmetries of the atmospheric energy, favors an approximately 1∘ northward shift of the ITCZ. The shift of the ITCZ reorganizes atmospheric circulation, favoring a northward shift of the Hadley circulation. In addition, the Walker circulation consistently shifts westward within PlioMIP2 models, leading to wetter conditions over the northern Indian Ocean. The PlioMIP2 ensemble highlights that an imbalance of interhemispheric atmospheric energy during the mid-Pliocene could have led to changes in the dynamic effect, offsetting the thermodynamic effect and, hence, altering mid-Pliocene hydroclimate.
  •  
50.
  • Haywood, Alan M., et al. (författare)
  • The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 : large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 16:6, s. 2095-2123
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near similar to 400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 degrees C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 degrees C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %-13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 degrees C over land and 2.8 degrees C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60 degrees N and 60 degrees S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6-4.8 degrees C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports.
  •  
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