| 1. |
- Almulla, Youssef, et al.
(författare)
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Hydropower and climate change, insights from the integrated water-energy modelling of the Drin Basin
- 2023
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Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 48
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The understanding of the transboundary impact of Climate Change on hydropower is not well-established in the literature, where few studies take a system perspective to understand the relative roles of different technological solutions for coordinated water and energy management. This study contributes to addressing this gap by introducing an open-source, long-term, technologically-detailed water and energy resources cost-minimisation model for the Drin River Basin, built in OSeMOSYS.The analysis shows that climate change results in a 15-52% annual decline in hydro generation from the basin by mid-century. Albania needs to triple its investments in solar and wind to mitigate the risk of climate change. Changing the operational rules of hydropower plants has a minor impact on the electricity supply. However, it can spare significant storage volume for flood control.
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| 2. |
- Andersson, Elias, et al.
(författare)
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Key performance indicators for energy management in the Swedish pulp and paper industry
- 2019
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Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 24, s. 229-235
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The pulp and paper industry is one of the five most energy-intensive industries world-wide. In Sweden, most pulp and paper mills were certified with a standardized energy management system already in 2005. As Swedish mills have more than a decade of experience with energy management systems and energy key performance indicators (KPIs), studying KPIs within Swedish pulp and paper mills will enable both a state-of-the-art positioning of best-practice in relation to energy KPIs in pulp and paper mills, but also spot potential barriers and drivers in the utilization of energy KPIs. This paper studies the current level of implementation and operationalization of energy-related KPIs in the Swedish pulp and paper industry. The results show a potential for improvement.
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| 3. |
- Bataille, Christopher, et al.
(författare)
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Net-zero deep decarbonization pathways in Latin America : Challenges and opportunities
- 2020
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Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 30
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This synthesis paper presents the objectives, approach and cross-cutting results of the Latin American Deep Decarbonization Pathways project (DDP-LAC). It synthesizes and compares detailed national and sectoral deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs) to 2050 compatible with the Paris Agreement objectives and domestic development priorities in Argentina, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico and Peru. The first five countries analysed in detail the energy system and agriculture, forestry and land use (AFOLU) at a high level, while Peru focussed on a detailed analysis of AFOLU given its predominance in its GHG emissions. While economy-wide results were produced, this paper focuses on the electricity, passenger transport, and AFOLU results because of their current emissions, potential to grow, and identification of successful strategies for decarbonization (e.g. switching to clean electricity and other net-zero emissions fuels across the economy; urban planning, mode shifting, and electrification in passenger transport; and intensive sustainable agriculture, assignment of land use rights and their enforcement and afforestation in AFOLU). It also highlights where significant emissions remain in 2050, notably in industry, AFOLU, freight, and oil and gas production, all areas for future research. It derives insights for the design of domestic policy packages and identifies priorities for international cooperation. This analysis provides critical information for Long-Term Strategies, Nationally Determined Contributions and Global Stocktaking in the context of the Paris Agreement.
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| 4. |
- Brinkerink, Maarten, et al.
(författare)
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System dynamics within typical days of a high variable 2030 European power system
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier Ltd. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 22, s. 94-105
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The effect of variability in electricity generation on future high variable European power systems is a subject of extensive research within the current scientific literature. The common approach in these studies, regarding the assessment of the impact of the variability and related balancing assets, is by showing yearly aggregates (or longer) of results based on a variety of indicators. Although significant, these studies often lack in temporal details. This paper therefore focuses on the dynamics between load, generation, marginal cost and assets for balancing the generation variability, within a variety of typical days in a fully-integrated European power market. This is done by assessments of daily snapshots based on an hourly time resolution. The assessments underline the necessity of balancing assets, both during peaks as well as during lows in the output of variable generators. Interconnection capacity, electricity storage and demand response (DR) applications all contribute to renewables integration and to optimized utilization of cost-efficient generation capacity throughout the European power system. Important load flows from and towards load centers with high capacities of variable renewables are identified, as well as a significant role for transit countries with high interconnection capacities between these load centers. Despite the importance of electricity storage, it is shown that the traditional diurnal utilization of centralized electricity storage fleets becomes less viable with increasing penetration of variable renewables. A potential high CO2 price in the future European power market can become a determining factor in the system dynamics. Large price differentials in the merit order stimulate long distance flows as well as an increasing profitability for storage assets.
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| 5. |
- Brouwer, F., et al.
(författare)
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Energy modelling and the Nexus concept
- 2018
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Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 19, s. 1-6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Nexus concept is the interconnection between the resources energy, water, food, land and climate. Such interconnections enable to address trade-offs and seek for synergies among them. Several policy areas (e.g. bio-based economy, circular economy) increasingly consider the Nexus concept. Ignoring synergies and trade-offs between energy and natural flows, can generate misleading modelling outcomes. Several modelling tools are available to address energy and the Nexus. Based on six such models, this paper aims to support the design and testing of coherent strategies for sustainable development. Model improvements would be achieved by comparing model outcomes and including a common baseline.
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| 6. |
- Chavez-Rodriguez, Mauro F., et al.
(författare)
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Fuel saving strategies in the Andes : long-term impacts for Peru, Colombia and Ecuador
- 2018
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Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 20, s. 35-48
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Crude oil exports and imports play a crucial role in the trade balance of Peru, Colombia and Ecuador. These countries are looking into fossil fuel saving measures as a way to deal with increasing demands and decreasing oil production rates. However, studies about the long-term effects of these measures is lacking. Using a combination of energy simulation technics, 17 fuel saving strategies ranging from fuel switching to the investment in underground transport and hydropower capacity expansion were modelled and assessed to evaluate their long-term effect on fossil fuels demand reduction. Our results show that the full implementation of strategies can account for cumulative oil savings of over 550 million barrels of oil by 2030. Findings also point out that Ecuador and Colombia could face the transition from net oil-exporters to importers as soon as the end of the next decade.
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| 7. |
- Drews, M., et al.
(författare)
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Projected water usage and land-use-change emissions from biomass production (2015–2050)
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 29
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Increased biomass for energy production features as a key part of the transition to a competitive low-carbon EU energy system. Not all energy strategies however will lead to reduced emissions, and extensive biomass production inherently compete with, e.g., agricultural systems for key natural resources like water and land. This paper investigates the ramifications of three potential energy pathways for Europe developed by the H2020 REEEM project, ambitiously aimed at reducing CO2 emissions to 80–95% compared to 1990, using different mixes of biomass. Their environmental footprint for 2015–2050 in terms of land-use-change emissions and water consumption are confronted with near-term climate change projections. Finally, potential implications for the implementation and robustness of future European energy strategies are discussed, highlighting in particular the role of uncertainties in estimating the performance of biomass systems.
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| 8. |
- Eisele, Philipp, et al.
(författare)
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Readiness of demand response technology for Spanish Energy Communities
- 2024
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Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 54
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Demand response (DR) and Energy Communities are highlighted as two key means to facilitate the energy transition in Europe by providing flexibility to the grid in a decentralized way. This paper uses a theoretical framework, the balanced readiness level assessment, to review five social and techno-economic dimensions regarding the status of demand response technology, emphasizing key challenges and opportunities. Focusing specifically on Energy Communities in Spain, issues such as the split-incentive problem in technology investments, market rules favouring large generators, and the imperative for improved coordination in the electricity market and network operations are identified as significant hurdles to further DR development. A balanced readiness level score of 7.25 is assessed for Spanish energy communities, composed of a 9 for the technological, a 7 for the regulatory and the acceptance, and a 5 for explicit and 7 for implicit market readiness level. The application of the balanced readiness level assessment methodology is novel to the energy industry and does not only prove the value it can create in this sector, but also provides insights for policymakers and stakeholders navigating the dynamic landscape of Demand Response for Spanish Energy Communities.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Fuso Nerini, Francesco, et al.
(författare)
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Myopic decision making in energy system decarbonisation pathways. A UK case study
- 2017
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Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 17, s. 19-26
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- With an application on the UK, this paper shows that myopic planning might result in delayed strategic investments and in considerably higher costs for achieving decarbonisation targets compared to estimates done with perfect foresight optimisation energy models. It also suggests that carbon prices obtained from perfect foresight energy models might be under-estimated. The study was performed using a combination of the standard UK Times Model (UKTM), a perfect foresight, bottom-up, technology-rich cost optimisation energy model, and its myopic foresight version: My-UKTM. This also demonstrates that using perfect foresight optimisation models in tandem with their myopic equivalents can provide valuable indications for policy design.
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| 11. |
- Galinis, Arvydas, et al.
(författare)
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Implications of carbon price paths on energy security in four Baltic region countries
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : ELSEVIER. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 30
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Energy security is one of the critical priorities of energy policy in the European Union and particularly in the Baltic region that is currently transforming itself from an isolated energy island to a highly interconnected area. In this paper, a comprehensive analysis of energy security in Estonia, Finland, Latvia, and Lithuania in the context of the energy transition is presented. The paper explores regional implications of two paths of carbon price (gradual and delayed carbon price increase). The analysis is performed by linking an energy system optimisation model with a probabilistic model of energy security. This modelling suite is used to assess the resilience of the planned energy system to possible disruptions. The results demonstrate that carbon price paths have a modest impact on energy security in Baltic countries if energy security measures are implemented in an optimal way. The research is based on the case study conducted in the framework of the European Union's Horizon 2020 project REEEM.
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| 12. |
- Gardumi, Francesco, et al.
(författare)
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A scenario analysis of potential long-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Tunisian electricity sector
- 2021
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Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 38
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the economy of Tunisia, like that of many other countries. With electricity consumption dropping, consumption patterns changing, international fuel prices oscillating and uncertainty raging, the pandemic has affected not least the planning of investments in electricity supply. Although the government seems unlikely to revise the decarbonisation targets downwards, questions arise on whether the investments planned before the pandemic are still relevant in the changed global landscape and what effects they may have on the country's economy. In this study, we analyse post-pandemic scenarios for the electricity supply system of Tunisia with an energy economy modelling framework, soft-linking the energy modelling tool OSeMOSYS and an open source Input Output model. We extract insights on the cost-competitiveness of different - previously planned and new - electricity supply solutions and their impacts on job creation and loss in the entire economy. We find that renewable solutions based on solar photovoltaic remain highly competitive with gas-fired generation under different projections of gas prices and that several low-carbon and energy efficiency solutions have high potential for job creation. We also find that more ambitious investments in renewables and energy efficiency are needed to take Tunisia towards the path of deep decarbonisation.
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| 13. |
- Gardumi, Francesco, et al.
(författare)
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From the development of an open-source energy modelling tool to its application and the creation of communities of practice : The example of OSeMOSYS
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 20, s. 209-228
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In the last decades, energy modelling has supported energy planning by offering insights into the dynamics between energy access, resource use, and sustainable development. Especially in recent years, there has been an attempt to strengthen the science-policy interface and increase the involvement of society in energy planning processes. This has, both in the EU and worldwide, led to the development of open-source and transparent energy modelling practices. This paper describes the role of an open-source energy modelling tool in the energy planning process and highlights its importance for society. Specifically, it describes the existence and characteristics of the relationship between developing an open-source, freely available tool and its application, dissemination and use for policy making. Using the example of the Open Source energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS), this work focuses on practices that were established within the community and that made the framework's development and application both relevant and scientifically grounded.
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| 14. |
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| 15. |
- Ghosh, Ranjan Kumar
(författare)
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Gas based power generation in India: Lessons from a transaction cost analysis
- 2015
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Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 8, s. 1-7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We use a transaction cost framework to analyze the performance of gas-based private investments in two coastal Indian states - Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat. These states have a similar regulatory set-up and have seen bulk of the initial gas-based private investment being made. Yet they differ greatly in terms of actual generation. Andhra Pradesh's lack of success can be attributed to upstream regulation and arm's length contractual design. This created a weak demand response giving rise to high transaction costs. Whereas in Gujarat, upstream contractual design has ensured that demand response is strong enough to minimize transaction costs for utilities downstream. Our cases reiterate that alternative governance structures (competitive markets and hierarchical systems) need to be subjected to a comparative analysis of transaction cost minimization. Hence, the general policy of promoting competition may not be a strategic solution for India where adequate investment for annual supply of electricity is the real problem. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 16. |
- Godinez-Zamora, Guido, et al.
(författare)
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Decarbonising the transport and energy sectors : Technical feasibility and socioeconomic impacts in Costa Rica
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 32
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Compliance with the Paris Agreement requires the transformation of national economies to meet net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by mid-century. To accomplish this, countries need to define long-term decarbonisation strategies with near- and mid-term actions to determine their ideal future scenario while maximizing socioeconomic benefits. This paper describes the process followed to support the creation of the decarbonisation pathway for the transport and energy sectors presented in Costa Rica's National Decarbonisation Plan. We discuss in detail the technological pathway of a deep-decarbonisation future that supports reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. Compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, our results show that the decarbonisation pathway can lead to emissions' reduction of 87% in the transport and energy sectors by 2050. Energy efficiency, the adoption of electromobility, modal-shift towards public transport and active mobility, as well as reduced demand due to digitalisation and teleworking, are found to be key drivers towards the deep-decarbonisation. These measures combined enable a 25% reduction of primary energy production by 2050. The results highlight that the decarbonisation scenario requires installing 4.4 GW more of renewable power plants by 2050, compared to the BAU scenario (80%). We also show that additional investments for the deep-decarbonisation are compensated with the reduced operating cost. Crucially, we found that the National Decarbonisation Plan results in a lower total discounted cost of about 35% of current Costa Rica's GDP, indicating that a deep decarbonisation is technically feasible and is coupled to socioeconomic benefits.
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| 17. |
- Hasan, ASM Monjurul, et al.
(författare)
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Energy management practices in Bangladesh’s iron and steel industries
- 2018
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Ingår i: Energy strategy reviews. - : Elsevier. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 22, s. 230-236
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The aim of this paper was to study energy management and improved energy efficiency among large iron and steel mills in Bangladesh. The results show that there are some barriers to energy management practices among large steel mills, the most important barriers being the perceived absence of cost-effective technical measures, high perceived risks due to uncertain future energy costs and poor information quality. However, this study has shown that the reduction in energy costs due to improved energy efficiency constitutes the most important driver for energy efficiency in the studied steel mills. The results also show that most of the steel mills have not had any technical energy efficiency improvement measures implemented in the production process. Moreover, the steel mills seem unfamiliar with the concept of including energy service companies, and the lack of information or awareness seems to be the main reason behind this. The paper also finds that energy efficiency is perceived to be able to be improved by 6%–8% through energy management practices.
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| 18. |
- Ihlemann, Maren, et al.
(författare)
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SpineOpt : A flexible open-source energy system modelling framework
- 2022
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Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 43
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The transition towards more sustainable energy systems poses new requirements on energy system models. New challenges include representing more uncertainties, including short-term detail in long-term planning models, allowing for more integration across energy sectors, and dealing with increased model complexities. SpineOpt is a flexible, open-source, energy system modelling framework for performing operational and planning studies, consisting of a wide spectrum of novel tools and functionalities. The most salient features of SpineOpt include a generic data structure, flexible temporal and spatial structures, a comprehensive representation of uncertainties, and model decomposition capabilities to reduce the computational complexity. These enable the implementation of highly diverse case studies. SpineOpt's features are presented through several publicly -available applications. An illustrative case study presents the impact of different temporal resolutions and stochastic structures in a co-optimised electricity and gas network. Using a lower temporal resolution in different parts of the model leads to a lower computational time (44%-98% reductions), while the total system cost varies only slightly (-1.22-1.39%). This implies that modellers experiencing computational issues should choose a high level of temporal accuracy only when needed.
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| 19. |
- Jonsson, Daniel K., et al.
(författare)
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Energy security matters in the EU Energy Roadmap
- 2015
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Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 6, s. 48-56
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Energy security has gained increasing prominence on the EU political agenda, but is often framed narrowly, in terms of import dependency or security of supply. In this paper we screen and scope out a more comprehensive suite of energy security aspects to be considered when assessing low-carbon energy scenarios and apply it using the EU Energy Roadmap as an example. Availability and affordability issues as well as security of demand matters and geopolitical security aspects are identified and discussed. External factors, e.g., future international climate treaties and international relations, are important for some energy security outcomes. A broader framing of energy security together with structured assessments on the security implications of energy transitions would benefit future EU energy policy.
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| 20. |
- Khastieva, Dina, et al.
(författare)
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Value of energy storage for transmission investments
- 2019
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Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 24, s. 94-110
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper investigates joint investment planning of transmission lines and energy storage. Energy storage can be seen as a complement to transmission infrastructure and can be used for transmission deferral. On the other hand, under certain conditions, when the expected profit of both sectors depends on congestion in the system, transmission and energy storage can be seen as competitors. The transmission sector is in this study assumed to be a natural monopoly and operation and planning of transmission lines is performed by an independent company whereas the energy storage owner company operates and invests under competitive market rules. Three main questions are addressed in this paper. First of all, will additional energy storage capacity contribute to the growth of social welfare? Second, how will incentive regulation of the transmission network affect the need for energy storage? Third, how will the choice of incentive regulation affect the value of energy storage. This paper first provides an overview of incentive regulation which can be applied to transmission investments. Then case studies based on a 6-node power system network and the IEEE 118-node system are proposed in order to answer the aforementioned questions. The results of the case studies show that energy storage investments complement transmission expansion and contribute to higher social welfare values. The benefits from energy storage investments are significantly higher under two investigated incentive regulations as compared to the case without incentive regulation. Thus, the transmission investment planning process should consider energy storage options.
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| 21. |
- Khavari, Babak, et al.
(författare)
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The effects of population aggregation in geospatial electrification planning
- 2021
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Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 38, s. 100752-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The introduction of geospatial data into modelling efforts carries many advantages but also introduces numerous challenges. A common challenge is the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP), describing how results change as the spatial aggregation of data changes. Here, we have studied MAUP in geospatial least-cost electrification modelling. We do this by assessing the effects of using 26 different population bases each for Benin, Malawi and Namibia. We use the population bases to generate 2080 electrification scenarios per country and conducting a global sensitivity analysis using the Delta Moment-Independent Measure. We identify population aggregation to be highly influential to the model results with regards to method of aggregation (delta values of 0.06-0.24 depending on output studied), administrative division (0.05-0.14), buffer chosen in the clustering process (0.05-0.32) and the minimum number of neighbours within the buffer required for clustering (0.05-0.19). Based on our findings, we conclude that geospatial electrification studies are not robust concerning the choice of population data. We suggest, that modelers put larger emphasis on different population aggregation methods in their sensitivity analyses and that the methods chosen to conduct sensitivity analysis are global in nature (i.e. moving all inputs simultaneously through their possible range of values).
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| 22. |
- Korkmaz, Pinar, et al.
(författare)
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A comparison of three transformation pathways towards a sustainable European society - An integrated analysis from an energy system perspective
- 2020
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Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : ELSEVIER. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 28
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An energy system transition in the European Union is required to meet the decarbonisation targets determined in the Paris Agreement. To realise this transition, a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of at least 80% from 1990 levels by 2050 is required. However, ambitions are being raised towards carbon neutrality. Such transition will likely imply deep changes across all sectors of the EU economies and societies. The impacts on these sectors need to be analysed with a multi-disciplinary approach, to unveil cross-sectoral risks and opportunities of the transition. Additionally, the pace and effectiveness of the transition may be affected by technical and economic drivers within the EU. In this paper, we soft-link three modelling frameworks specialised in assessing technology transitions, spatially-disaggregated health impacts of air pollutants and economic impacts and we apply them to the study of deep decarbonisation pathways for the EU. An energy system model, TIMES PanEU, is soft linked with an impact assessment model, EcoSense, and with a general equilibrium model, NEWAGE. The application looks at three clearly distinguished but likely paths: one where the decarbonisation effort is mostly undertaken by decarbonisation of the energy supply; one where consumers take on a more active role in the decarbonisation, instead; one where ambitions are raised and all sectors of the economy must act together to achieve the targets. In the specific application, it is concluded that 80% reduction is achievable with a decentralised, demand driven system as well as with a centralised one, where the decarbonisation effort mainly comes from the supply side. On the other hand, to achieve a more ambitious reduction target, a broader technology mix and also the effort from both supply and demand side will be required. The synergy between the sectors, especially for the utilisation of the domestic sources such as biomass, will be a decisive factor for the direction of the energy transition.
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| 23. |
- Koutsandreas, Diamantis, et al.
(författare)
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A multicriteria modeling approach for evaluating power generation scenarios under uncertainty : The case of green hydrogen in Greece
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 50
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Clean energy technological innovations are widely acknowledged as a prerequisite to achieving ambitious long-term energy and climate targets. However, the optimal speed of their adoption has been parsimoniously studied in the literature. This study seeks to identify the optimal intensity of moving to a green hydrogen electricity sector in Greece, using the OSeMOSYS energy modeling framework. Green hydrogen policies are evaluated, first, on the basis of their robustness against uncertainty and, afterwards, against conflicting performance criteria and for different decision-making profiles towards risk, by applying the VIKOR and TOPSIS multi-criteria decision aid methods. Although our analysis focuses exclusively on the power sector and compares different rates of hydrogen penetration compared to a business-as-usual case without considering other game-changing innovations (such as other types of storage or carbon capture and storage), we find that a national transition to a green hydrogen economy can support Greece in potentially cutting at least 16 MtCO2 while stimulating investments of EUR 10–13 bn. over 2030–2050.
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| 24. |
- Kudelin, Artem, et al.
(författare)
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Wind ENERGY in Russia : The current state and development trends
- 2021
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Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 34
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Wind energy is one of the leading forms of non-hydro renewable energy sources in the world. Russia ranks among the top countries with vast wind energy resources and among the top CO2 producers as well. Simultaneously, the utilization of wind energy is extremely low compared to other CO2 emitting states. This paper aims to describe the ongoing situation for wind energy development according to the most critical aspects that affect evolution. Investor support schemes, permission procedures, social, educational, and research issues, available data on wind energy resources and local production facilities, and supportive policies are also described. A discussion on possible obstacles and limits to windfarm deployment and probable capacity growth scenarios has been pro-vided. Trends for different economic development prognoses were evaluated considering possible outcomes for wind energy facilities introduction. The optimistic scenario suggests that, depending on global economic growth by 2030, the volume of wind generation capacity could reach up to 10 GW by 2030. The pessimistic scenarios, more probable due to the COVID-19 pandemic, limit the growth by 3.6 and 6.4 GW depending on the gross domestic product volumes decrease. The threats to the renewable energy sources development in Russia due to the world?s current situation are summarized in conclusion.
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| 25. |
- Kutcherov, Vladimir G., 1955-, et al.
(författare)
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Russian natural gas exports : An analysis of challenges and opportunities
- 2020
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Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 30
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study provides a comprehensive, updated, and refined analysis of the challenges and opportunities for Russian natural gas exports based on recent statistical data, academic publications, and media sources. The paper addresses the lack of continuity in studies within the topic since the recent changes are not reflected well enough in the current peer-reviewed literature. In order to understand the perspectives regarding Russian natural gas export in global natural gas markets, we consequently examine the current layout of the global natural gas markets, and challenges and opportunities for Russian natural gas exports. The analysis shows that the U.S. natural gas market is closed for Russian exports. In the European market, Russia is experiencing difficulties in increasing its export shares, or even maintaining current levels, owing to various macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges. Asian markets such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea, are the most promising destinations for future Russian natural gas exports. Despite strong geopolitical challenges and high competition globally, Russia should seek maintaining current export levels in the European market, while implementing a win-win export strategy, and secure its future export shares on the Asian markets. The results of the study can be used for scenario and planning purposes, and be useful for policy makers and industry practitioners.
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| 26. |
- Larsen, M. A. D., et al.
(författare)
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Challenges of data availability : Analysing the water-energy nexus in electricity generation
- 2019
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Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 26
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Water is paramount for the operation of energy systems, for securing food supply and for the industry and municipalities. Intersectoral competition for water resources can negatively affect water scarce regions by e.g. power plants shutdowns, poor agricultural yields, and lack of potable water. Future economic and population growth as well as climate change is likely to exacerbate these patterns. However, models used for energy system management and planning in general do not properly include water availability which can lead to improper representations of water-energy interlinkages. The paper initially highlights the water usage rates of current technologies within electricity generation and technologies with a potential to reduce water usage, electricity consumption or GHG emissions. Secondly, the paper presents currently available data on current and future projected water resources as well as data on energy statistics relevant to water-energy nexus studies. Thirdly, implementation cases are presented showing examples of water-energy nexus studies for the data presented. Finally, the paper highlights main challenges in studying the linkage between water and energy. We find a substantial gap in the general availability and quality of regional and global data for detailed quantitative analyses and also identify a need for standardization of formats and data collection methodologies across data and disciplines. An effort towards a coordinated, and sustained open-access data framework with energy sector water usage at fine spatio-temporal scales alongside hydroclimatic observation and model data using common forcings and scenarios for future projections (of climate, socio-economy and technology) is therefore recommended for future water-energy nexus studies.
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| 27. |
- Lehne, Johanna, et al.
(författare)
-
Energy services for refugees and displaced people
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 13-14, s. 134-146
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The current literature on energy access highlights energy deprivation on a regional or country basis, but frequently neglects those outside of national energy agendas such as refugees and displaced people. To fill this gap and to help inform future analysis, this paper presents an end-use accounting model for energy consumption for cooking and lighting by displaced populations. We present initial estimates for the overall scale of energy poverty and three high-level scenarios for improving access to energy for cooking and lighting. Key findings suggest that as many as 7 million displaced people in camps have access to electricity for less than 4 h a day and that the widespread introduction of improved cookstoves and basic solar lanterns could save $303 million a year in fuel costs after an initial capital investment of $334 million. We conclude that there is a strong human, economic, and environmental case to be made for improving energy access for refugees and displaced people, and for recognising energy as a core concern within humanitarian relief efforts.
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| 28. |
- Leijon, Jennifer, 1990-, et al.
(författare)
-
Desalination and wave power for freshwater supply on Gotland
- 2024
-
Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 53
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Reliable access to drinking water and electricity can be a challenge, especially on islands. In this paper, desalination systems powered stand-alone by renewable energy sources are discussed, with a focus on wave power for the Swedish island Gotland. The objective is to evaluate the opportunity of using wave power for a desalination system on Gotland. The method includes assessing the electricity generation from a wave power park to power a desalination plant. The results show that the desalination plant would require 350 MWh annually, whereas the wave power plant could deliver 1891 MWh, supporting that it is technically feasible for a wave power park installed off the coast of Gotland to power a desalination plant.
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| 29. |
- Li, Yiming, et al.
(författare)
-
Nexus between renewable energy, natural resources and carbon emissions under the shadow of transboundary trade relationship from South East Asian economies
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 41
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study determined the influence of renewable energy and natural resources on carbon emissions by paying special attention to the transboundary trade relationship between South East Asian (SEA) economies. To highlight the importance of international trade relationships among the SEA economies, an interaction term is introduced. Moreover, to estimate the results, panel data from 1996 to 2019 is analyzed by applying Cross-Sectional Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL). The results show that renewable energy consumption is a significant factor that can reduce carbon emissions. The employment of interaction term shows that international trade improves the influence of renewable energy to control carbon emissions. The findings also depict that natural resources consumption is stimulating carbon emissions. While a strong trade bond is helping to reduce the influence of natural resources consumption on carbon emissions. The findings of this study highlight the importance of international trade at the regional level to mitigate carbon emissions. The study suggests that improvement in international trade may prove a helpful strategy to promote renewable energy sources and diminish the reliance on natural resources such as fossil fuels, this will ultimately help to mitigate carbon emissions.
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| 30. |
- Masoomi, Behzad, et al.
(författare)
-
Strategic supplier selection for renewable energy supply chain under green capabilities (fuzzy BWM-WASPAS-COPRAS approach)
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 40
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The supplier selection problem (SSP) is a significant issue in renewable supply chain management (RSCM). Selecting a strategic green supplier can not only discover the sustainable development of supply chains but also optimize the consumption rate of resources and decrease the negative environmental effects, which adopts to the green development context. As a multiple criteria group decision-making (MCGDM) problem, choosing a strategic green supplier is important to renewable supply chains. However, how to choose a strategic green supplier for supply chains is a great effort. Hence, In the present work, evaluating a set of strategic suppliers is primarily based on green capabilities by using an integrated fuzzy Best Worst Method (FBWM) with the other two techniques, namely COPRAS (Complex Proportional Assessment of Alternatives) and WASPAS (Weighted Aggregated Sum-Product Assessment). Initially, nine strategic supplier selection criteria have been identified through literature review and a real-world case study of Iran's renewable energy supply chain is deliberated to exhibit the proposed framework's applicability. The applied methodology and its analysis will provide insight to decision-makers of strategic supplier selection. It may aid decision-makers and the procurement department in differentiating the significant strategic green supplier selection criteria and assess the strategic green supplier in the local and global market supply chain. Finally, the strengths and limitation of the framework are discussed by using comparative analysis with other methods.
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| 31. |
- Mentis, Dimitris, et al.
(författare)
-
Estimating the spatially explicit wind generated electricity cost in Africa - A GIS based analysis
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 17, s. 45-49
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Nowadays, more than 620 million people in Africa live without access to electricity. Nowhere in the world is the chasm between available energy resources and access to electricity greater than on the African continent. With the exception of conventional hydropower, the share of renewable energy in the electricity mix remains insignificant, despite the considerable untapped renewable energy potential in the region. A critical issue in the development of renewable energy sources is the cost, which is a function of the resource availability, the geographic and topological characteristics of a studied area as well as the selected energy conversion technologies. This paper applies a detailed Geographic Information Systems (GIS) approach in order to identify the cost of generating electricity using onshore wind turbines considering several localization criteria. The levelized cost of wind generated electricity is calculated geospatially and shall be used as an indicator to compare different suitable sites at the pre-feasibility stage. The levelized cost of generating electricity varies between 0.04 and 0.17 USD/kWh, placing wind power in a cost competitive position in the electricity market of the continental countries.
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| 32. |
- Mogren Olsson, John, et al.
(författare)
-
Modelling least cost electricity system scenarios for Bangladesh using OSeMOSYS
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 38, s. 100705-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In order to achieve sustainable development, Bangladesh needs to develop its electricity systems to guarantee its citizens access to modern energy services and achieve economic development, while not compromising the global climate. This study aims to examine what mix of technologies leads to the least costs for the electricity system under different scenario assumptions. This is done by creating a model of the electricity system of Bangladesh, using the linear optimisation tool OSeMOSYS. The results show a prominence of ultra-supercritical coal power as the lowest cost option for baseload generation in the business as usual and most other scenarios. Unlike in previous studies, solar power is economically competitive in every single scenario, and only limited by the amount of land available for new capacity additions. However, by following a cost minimisation strategy, without emissions restrictions or high carbon prices, the CO2 emissions of the Bangladeshi electricity sector may increase significantly by the end of the model period in 2045.
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| 33. |
- Moksnes, Nandi, et al.
(författare)
-
Increasing spatial and temporal resolution in energy system optimisation model – The case of Kenya
- 2024
-
Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 51
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- At the time of writing, 759 million people (2019) still lack access to electricity globally. It is important for energy planning to describe plausible pathways to achieve national goals, using tools such as energy systems models to explore scenarios and provide insight. Until recently, modelling energy access in countries with a low electrification rate was conducted at low spatial (e.g., national) and/or temporal resolutions (e.g., annual time slices or ‘overnight’ electrification). In this paper, we develop methods in an open-source computational workflow with high spatial resolution in an open-source energy systems optimisation model. We use Kenya as our case application where approx. 16 million people still lack access to electricity (2019). One reference scenario and two diagnostic hypothetical scenarios are developed to assess the model. The spatial resolution of approximately 40 by 40 km cells leads to 591 demand cells split between electrified and un-electrified population. The results show that in the reference scenario, the optimal supply option for the unelectrified population is PV panels and batteries. At the same, an oversupply of the planned power plants is observed. The model can capture dynamics between spatially explicit supply options and central power plants in one model.
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| 34. |
- Mueller, Berit, et al.
(författare)
-
Comprehensive representation of models for energy system analyses : Insights from the Energy Modelling Platform for Europe (EMP-E) 2017
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 21, s. 82-87
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This article discusses different approaches that are used to present and categorise models used in energy system analysis, with the overall objective to improve their quality, efficiency, and outreach to policy makers and public stakeholders involved in the European energy transition. A comprehensive literature review identifying strengths and limitations of existing approaches of classification is conducted. It highlights the tendency towards a versatile presentation of models, where the same set of information is available for all users while the way it is presented can be customised according to the background and interests of several stakeholder groups (e.g., modellers, researchers in the energy field, policy advisers, and policy makers). Online platforms enhance this concept by allowing dynamic adaptations. We think that improving this approach could be a potentially significant contribution to the scientific work in the field of energy system analysis. In addition to the literature review, we include experiences from the first meeting of the Energy Modelling Platform for Europe (EMP-E 2017). The participants used different formats to present their models. In the open space provided, the trade-off between simplicity and completeness of representation was visible. Feedback of the meeting showed that gathering European modellers and policy makers in a personal meeting is valuable as it motivates and improves exchange between modelling groups and between modellers and those stakeholders who are interested in specific results.
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| 35. |
- Muthukumaran, Gowtham, et al.
(författare)
-
Decentralized solutions for island states: Enhancing energy resilience through renewable technologies
- 2024
-
Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 54
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Decentralized grid solutions could be a feasible alternative to improve resilience and mitigate cascading effects in island states. Our study explores approaches that reduce the risk of infrastructure failures and promote decentralized utility planning in islands. A novel framework is proposed to conduct a power system resilience assessment by integrating vulnerability assessments and energy system modelling approaches through network analysis. The framework is applied to an island context, where vulnerability to hydroclimatic hazards, geographic isolation, restricted access to energy sources, small population bases inadequate for substantial infrastructure investments, dependence on imported energy, lack of energy source diversification, and fragile ecosystems have exacerbated energy insecurity. As a case study, we have applied the framework to Cuba. We simulate disruptions in vulnerable network nodes in Cuba to determine the municipalities that are most impacted by the simulated cascading failures. We designed and optimized the lowest cost decentralized solutions to increase resilience either by acting as the baseload electricity source or as a complementary backup system to complement in case of a power outage. Then, the resilience of the designed system was assessed using power system resilience metrics. The study results show Regla municipality in Cuba as the most vulnerable hotspot for electricity distribution. Upon the different system comparisons, ancillary systems outperform backup systems in enhancing power system resilience, especially in the context of a disruptive event, supplying up to 53 MWh/day more, although they have higher investment costs. Based on this research, resource planners and policymakers can understand vulnerable node points and prioritize the necessary investments for the preferred system choice to alleviate impacts of energy insecurity on the Island States.
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| 36. |
- Nevzorova, Tatiana, et al.
(författare)
-
Barriers to the wider implementation of biogas as a source of energy: A state-of-the-art review
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 26, s. 100414-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Many countries have realised that biogas as a source of energy is an important component for sustainability transition. However, the total production volume of biogas is still relatively low. Such slow development raises a fundamental question—what are the current barriers hindering the wider uptake of biogas as a source of energy? In order to answer the question, a systematic state-of-the-art review of the barriers was conducted based on the Scopus database. The results of the review were summarised by country and were divided into two broad categories: developed and developing economies. Each group was analysed separately according to six types of barriers: (1) technical, (2) economic, (3) market, (4) institutional, (5) socio-cultural, and (6) environmental barriers. By analysing the barriers through different contexts, the most frequent and crucial constraints the biogas industry currently faces were identified and integrated into a systematic classification. In addition, possible solutions on how to overcome the most critical barriers were added.
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| 37. |
- Niet, T., et al.
(författare)
-
Developing a community of practice around an open source energy modelling tool
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 35
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Energy modelling is critical for addressing challenges such as integrating variable renewable energy and addressing climate impacts. This paper describes the updated code management structure and code updates, the revised community forum and the outreach activities that have built a vibrant community of practice around OSeMOSYS. The code management structure has allowed code improvements to be incorporated into the model, the community forum provides users with a place to ask and answer questions, and the outreach activities connect members of the community. Overall, these three pillars show how a community of practice can be built around an open source tool and provides an example for other developers and users of open source software wanting to build a community of practice.
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| 38. |
- Nycander, Elis, et al.
(författare)
-
An open dispatch model for the Nordic power system
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 39, s. 100775-100775
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents ODIN, an open dispatch model for the Nordic power system. We begin by performing a survey of existing models, and conclude that no model which simulates the different price areas in the Nordic power system and is truly open exists. Existing models either lack data to do an out-of-the-box simulation which accurately represents the Nordic power system, rely on proprietary software, or have a more coarse representation of the Nordic region. In contrast, ODIN has the following properties: (1) It is developed completely in Python and can be solved with open-source optimization tools, thus using no proprietary software. (2) It includes all data needed to do yearly simulations for the Nordic power system, with 35 years of data for weather-dependent production such as hydro power and wind power. (3) It represents all Nordic price areas and has been validated to reproduce historical production and transfer patterns. This paper describes the methodology and structure of the model and illustrates its features with examples and a case study.
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| 39. |
- Pang, Xi, et al.
(författare)
-
Forest bioenergy feedstock in Lithuania – renewable energy goals and the use of forest resources
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 24, s. 244-253
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Demands on forest bioenergy feedstock are expected to increase in many countries due to climate change mitigation. However, sustainable use of forest biomass resources can be ensured only if local and landscape conditions are taken into account, linking energy use to its resource base. The aim of this study was to analyse the forest biomass potential for Lithuania’s energy pathways, while comparing the projected demand of forest bioenergy feedstock with resource projections. This was performed using the Landscape simulation and Ecological Assessment (LEcA) tool and the energy model MESSAGE. Biomass demand can be met up to 2050, after which demands under a Biomass Low pathway can still be met by the domestic forest resource if other wood uses are reduced, while Biomass High leads to a biomass deficit regarding domestic forest resource. Information exchange between the energy model and the LEcA tool enables an integrated sustainability assessment, and may contribute to a sustainable and efficient use of forest as a bioenergy feedstock resource.
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| 40. |
- Pena Balderrama, J. Gabriela, et al.
(författare)
-
Techno-economic demand projections and scenarios for the Bolivian energy system
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 16, s. 96-109
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Increasing energy access in emerging economies has played an important role to maintain or achieve desirable social and economic development targets. As a consequence, the growing energy requirements need policy instruments to ensure energy supply for future generations. The literature reports many studies with different approaches to model and test policy measures in the energy sector, however few energy-related studies for Bolivia are available. This paper addresses this knowledge gap, representing the first national level energy demand model and projections for Bolivia. The model use demographic, economic, technology and policy trends with a pragmatic model structure that combines bottom-up and top-down modelling. The scenario analysis has a particular focus on alternatives for energy savings, energy mix diversification and air quality. Three scenarios were analysed: Energy Savings, Fuel Substitution and the aggregate effects in a Combined scenario. The reference scenario results show the overall energy consumption grows 134% in 2035 compared to 2012 with an annual average growth of 3.8%. The final energy demand in the energy savings scenario is 8.5% lower than the Reference scenario, 1.5% lower in the fuel substitution scenario and 9.4% lower in the combined Scenario. The aggregate impact of both energy savings and fuel substitution measures leads to potential avoided emissions of 25.84 million Tons of CO2 equivalent in the model horizon 2012-2035.
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| 41. |
- Pfenninger, Stefan, et al.
(författare)
-
Opening the black box of energy modelling : Strategies and lessons learned
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 19, s. 63-71
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The global energy system is undergoing a major transition, and in energy planning and decision-making across governments, industry and academia, models play a crucial role. Because of their policy relevance and contested nature, the transparency and open availability of energy models and data are of particular importance. Here we provide a practical how-to guide based on the collective experience of members of the Open Energy Modelling Initiative (Openmod). We discuss key steps to consider when opening code and data, including determining intellectual property ownership, choosing a licence and appropriate modelling languages, distributing code and data, and providing support and building communities. After illustrating these decisions with examples and lessons learned from the community, we conclude that even though individual researchers' choices are important, institutional changes are still also necessary for more openness and transparency in energy research.
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| 42. |
- Pinto de Moura, G. N., et al.
(författare)
-
South America power integration, Bolivian electricity export potential and bargaining power : An OSeMOSYS SAMBA approach
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 17, s. 27-36
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Bolivia has plenty of energy resources that can supply not only its own electricity demand but has also the potential to export surplus production to its neighbors in South America. This study presents a comparative analysis of the electricity export potential of Bolivia, considering modeling results carried out by the Bolivian government and those from OSeMOSYS SAMBA - South America Model Base. Four scenarios were modelled from different conceptions of strategic large hydropower combinations. The scenarios comparison highlights the cross-border potential trade between Bolivia and neighboring countries, mainly Brazil. Using a Cooperative Games approach, through the calculation of the Shapley value, the bargaining power of Bolivia was identified, reaching its higher value in the scenario where El Bala and Cachuela Esperanza dams are present. The cooperative games approach provides a better understanding of electricity trade opportunities to support policy makers in international negotiations, thus considerably reducing incentives to non-cooperative actions.
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| 43. |
- Riva, Fabio, et al.
(författare)
-
Long-term energy planning and demand forecast in remote areas of developing countries : Classification of case studies and insights from a modelling perspective
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 20, s. 71-89
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- More than half a billion people will still lack reliable and affordable electricity in 2040 and around 1.8 billion may remain reliant on traditional solid biomass for cooking. Long-term energy planning could help to achieve the energy access targets in developing countries, especially in remote rural areas. Different studies exist on long-term rural electricity and thermal energy planning, but the different foci, terminology and methodologies make it difficult to track their similarities, weaknesses and strengths. With this work, we aim at providing a critical analysis of peer-reviewed studies on long-term rural energy planning, to help researchers in the field move across the diverse know-how developed in the last decades. The work resulted in the analysis of 130 studies and categorisation of 85 of them that focus on electricity, thermal energy, and oil supply in rural areas, under a number of rules clearly defined in the first part of the paper. We classify the studies in two consecutive steps, first according to their type and afterwards according to the methodology they employ to forecast the energy demand, which is one the most critical aspects when dealing with long-term rural energy planning. The work also provides specific insights, useful to researchers interested in rural energy modelling. Few studies assume a dynamic demand over the years and most of them do not consider any evolution of the future energy load, or forecast its growth through arbitrary trends and scenarios. This however undermines the relevance of the results for the purpose of long-term planning and highlights the necessity of further developing the forecasting methodologies. We conclude that bottom-up approaches, system-dynamics and agent-based models seem appropriate approaches to forecast the evolution of the demand for energy in the long-term; we analyse their potential capability to tackle the context-specific complexities of rural areas and the nexus causalities among energy and socio-economic dynamics.
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| 44. |
- Runsten, Simon, et al.
(författare)
-
Energy provision in South African informal urban Settlements - A multi-criteria sustainability analysis
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier Ltd. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 19, s. 76-84
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In South Africa, as in much of sub-Saharan Africa, strong urbanization trends lead to people settling in ever less suitable informal locations, which are often considered ineligible for basic service provision. This study explores how access to basic energy services can be provided to informal urban households in South Africa that are ineligible for grid electrification. This is done through a multi-criteria sustainability analysis of current and alternative ways of accessing energy services. The case of the Western Cape Province is explored, showing that barriers for electrification can be overcome in some cases, given that there is political will at the local level to do so. When electrification is unviable, off-grid electricity alternatives combined with support for access to modern cooking fuels may provide short or medium-term solutions. This study further suggests that governmental efforts of meeting basic energy needs must be persistently oriented and structured towards access to energy services, as opposed to supply of electricity.
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| 45. |
- Sahlberg, Andreas, et al.
(författare)
-
A scenario discovery approach to least-cost electrification modelling in Burkina Faso
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 38, s. 100714-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents the first application of the scenario discovery approach in geospatial electrification modelling. 1944 electrification simulations were constructed for Burkina Faso from a combination seven input levers, including four grid-extension strategies. The scenario discovery analysis identifies a scenario described by a high grid electricity generation cost in combination with an intensification strategy for grid-extension, as most likely to lead to a high cost of electricity in Burkina Faso. Thus, to avoid such a high cost, decisions in the country could be targeted either at lowering grid electricity generation costs or to choose one of the other two gridextension strategies, or both. For each of the grid-extension strategies, a number of drivers causing a high LCOE were identified. Common drivers for all strategies were the grid electricity generation cost and discount rate. The scenario discovery approach was used to identify the key drivers of high electrification costs and their interactions, providing useful information that might not be gained from a traditional scenario-axes approach. This approach provided a structured way to analyze more parameters than found in previous electrification studies for Burkina Faso. The paper discusses on the pros compared to a traditional scenario-axes approach, such as reduced risk of perceived bias and improved ability to deal with multiple uncertain parameters, but also notes the additional computational requirements.
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| 46. |
- Sarfati, Mahir, et al.
(författare)
-
Production efficiency of nodal and zonal pricing in imperfectly competitive electricity markets
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 24, s. 193-206
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Electricity markets employ different congestion management methods to handle the limited transmission capacity of the power system. This paper compares production efficiency and other aspects of nodal and zonal pricing. We consider two types of zonal pricing: zonal pricing with Available Transmission Capacity (ATC) and zonal pricing with Flow-Based Market Coupling (FBMC). We develop a mathematical model to study the imperfect competition under zonal pricing with FBMC. Zonal pricing with FBMC is employed in two stages, a dayahead market stage and a re-dispatch stage. We show that the optimality conditions and market clearing conditions can be reformulated as a mixed integer linear program (MILP), which is straightforward to implement. Zonal pricing with ATC and nodal pricing is used as our benchmarks. The imperfect competition under zonal pricing with ATC and nodal pricing are also formulated as MILP models. All MILP models are demonstrated on 6-node and the modified IEEE 24-node systems. Our numerical results show that the zonal pricing with ATC results in large production inefficiencies due to the inc-dec game. Improving the representation of the transmission network as in the zonal pricing with FBMC mitigates the inc-dec game.
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| 47. |
- Schreurs, Twan, et al.
(författare)
-
Techno-economic analysis of combined heat pump and solar PV system for multi-family houses : An Austrian case study
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 36
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- With the increasing amount of building renovations in Austria, the potential increases for replacing conventional national gas heating systems with heat pumps (HP) and thereby reduce CO2 emissions particularly when combined with solar photovoltaics (PV). The Austrian subsidization scheme for HP and PV systems are different for every state, creating confusion and inconstancy for potential adopters. This study provides a parametric technoeconomic analysis of PV + HP systems to identify the critical economic parameters on profitability and make policy recommendations. A case study in Vienna is modelled using demand from the Building Model Generator and black box efficiency models for the HP and PV simulated with hourly time steps. The results show that both air-source and ground source heat pumps are currently profitable with PV under current subsidy schemes. The benefit-to-cost ratio (BCR) is highly influenced by capital costs and subsidies, however natural gas prices have the greatest influence. Increasing natural gas prices by 0.01 euro/kWh, or 17%, is enough to replace all other complicated subsidies for both HP and PV. This is equivalent to a carbon emissions price of 33 euro/ton and could result in a reduction of CO2 emissions in multi-family houses by approximately 45%-60%.
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| 48. |
- Shivakumar, Abhishek, et al.
(författare)
-
Drivers of renewable energy deployment in the EU : An analysis of past trends and projections
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 26
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Energy policy in the European Union (EU) is driven by the objective to transition to an affordable, reliable, and low carbon energy system. To achieve this objective, the EU has explicitly stated targets for greenhouse reduction, shares of renewable energy sources (RES), and energy efficiency improvements for 2020 and 2030. In this paper, we focus on the drivers, barriers and enablers to achieving the EU's RES targets (20% by 2020 and 27% by 2030). Effective energy policies play a key role in the deployment of RES technologies. In order to design effective policies, a clear understanding of past trends and projections for future deployment is required. In this paper, we first analyse the past deployment of RES technologies for electricity supply (RES-E) in selected EU Member States. This highlights the key drivers, barriers, and enablers for deployment of RES in the past. In a second step, we conduct a meta-analysis of projections for RES-E shares from multiple well-established studies. Such an analysis will help in supporting the design of more effective energy policies and successfully achieving the EU's energy targets.
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| 49. |
- Shivakumar, Abhishek, et al.
(författare)
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DRIVERS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY DEPLOYMENT IN THE EU: AN ANALYSIS OF PAST TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS
-
Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Energy policy in the European Union (EU) is driven by the objective to transition to an affordable, reliable, and low carbon energy system. To achieve this objective, the EU has explicitly stated targets for greenhouse reduction, shares of renewable energy sources (RES), and energy efficiency improvements for 2020 and 2030. In this paper, we focus on the drivers, barriers and enablers to achieving the EU’s RES targets (20% by 2020 and 27% by 2030). Effective energy policies play a key role in the deployment of RES technologies. In order to design effective policies, a clear understanding of past trends and projections for future deployment is required. In this paper, we first analyse the past deployment of RES technologies for electricity supply (RES-E) in selected EU Member States. This highlights the key drivers, barriers, and enablers for deployment of RES in the past. In a second step, we conduct a meta-analysis of projections for RES-E shares from multiple well-established studies. Such an analysis will help in supporting the design of more effective energy policies and successfully achieving the EU’s energy targets.
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- Shivakumar, Abhishek, et al.
(författare)
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Smart energy solutions in the EU: State of play and measuring progress
- 2018
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Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 20, s. 133-149
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The European energy system is undergoing, and will continue to in the future, a transition towards a more sustainable energy system. An important part of this will be the deployment of smart energy solutions in the household sector, including smart meters, controls, appliances, and their integration in home networks. This study is in support of the Commission's work related to smart energy solutions in the framework of the SET plan, in particular in understanding methods to develop indicators that can be used to measure progress under the Declaration of Intent for the Action 3.1 on Initiative for Smart solutions for energy consumers. First, ‘smart energy solutions’ are defined and the type of technologies that this includes are detailed. Once the scope has been established, existing indicators that are able to monitor the levels of deployment of such technologies will be reviewed. This includes indicators being proposed or used by international and Member State level energyagencies and other organisations. It is not intended that this study will comprehensively assess the actual deployment of smart energy solutions across all EU Member States. Instead, selected countries who are more advanced in the deployment of such technologies are considered in more detail. These include France, Switzerland, Ireland, UK, and Sweden. Finally, we review estimates of the potential of demand response in Europe to achieve goals related to energy efficiency, cost savings, and renewable energy penetration.
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