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- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 5. |
- Abuzeid, Nadir, et al.
(författare)
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Antimycobacterial activity of selected medicinal plants traditionally used in Sudan to treat infectious diseases
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Ethnopharmacology. - : Elsevier. - 0378-8741 .- 1872-7573. ; 157, s. 134-139
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Ethnopharmacological relevance: The emergence of multidrug-resistant strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis underscores the need for continuous development of new and efficient methods to determine the susceptibility of isolates of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in the search for novel antimycobacterial agents. Natural products constitute an important source of new drugs, and design and implementation of antimycobacterial susceptibility testing methods are necessary to evaluate the different extracts and compounds. In this study we have explored the antimycobacterial properties of 50 ethanolic extracts from different parts of 46 selected medicinal plants traditionally used in Sudan to treat infectious diseases. Materials and methods: Plants were harvested and ethanolic extracts were prepared. For selected extracts, fractionation with hydrophilic and hydrophobic solvents was undertaken. A luminometry-based assay was used for determination of mycobacterial growth in broth cultures and inside primary human macrophages in the presence or absence of plant extracts and fractions of extracts. Cytotoxicity was also assessed for active fractions of plant extracts. Results: Of the tested extracts, three exhibited a significant inhibitory effect on an avirulent strain of Mycobacterium tubercluosis (H37Ra) at the initial screening doses (125 and 6.25 mu g/ml). These were bark and leaf extracts of Khaya senegalensis and the leaf extract of Rosmarinus officinalis L. Further fractions of these plant extracts were prepared with n-hexane, chloroform, ethyl acetate, n-butanol, ethanol and water, and the activity of these extracts was retained in hydrophobic fractions. Cytotoxicity assays revealed that the chloroform fraction of Khaya senegalensis bark was non-toxic to human monocyte-derived macrophages and other cell types at the concentrations used and hence, further analysis, including assessment of IC50 and intracellular activity was done with this fraction. Conclusion: These results encourage further investigations to identify the active compound(s) within the chloroform fraction of Khaya senegalensis bark. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
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