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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 4. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 5. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(författare)
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- 2020
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 6. |
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| 8. |
- Jerusalem, G, et al.
(författare)
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Continuous versus intermittent extended adjuvant letrozole for breast cancer: Final results of randomized phase 3 SOLE (Study of Letrozole Extension) and SOLE Estrogen Substudy.
- 2021
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Ingår i: Annals of Oncology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0923-7534. ; 32:10, s. 1256-1266
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Late recurrences in postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive breast cancers remain an important challenge. Avoidance or delayed development of resistance represents the main objective in extended endocrine therapy. In animal models, resistance was reversed with restoration of circulating estrogen level during interruption of letrozole treatment. This phase 3 randomized, open-label Study of Letrozole Extension (SOLE) studied the effect of extended intermittent letrozole treatment in comparison with continuous letrozole. In parallel, the SOLE estrogen sub-study (SOLE-EST) analyzed the level of estrogen during the interruption of treatment.SOLE enrolled 4884 postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive, lymph node-positive, operable breast cancer between December 2007 and October 2012 and among them, 104 patients were enrolled in SOLE-EST. They must have undergone local treatment and have completed 4-6 years of adjuvant endocrine therapy. Patients were randomized between continuous letrozole (2.5 mg/day orally for 5 years) and intermittent letrozole treatment (2.5 mg/day during 9 months followed by a 3-month interruption in years 1-4 and then 2.5 mg/day during all year 5).Intention-to-treat population included 4851 women in SOLE (n=2425 in intermittent and n=2426 in continuous letrozole groups) and 103 women in SOLE-EST (n=78 in intermittent and n=25 in continuous letrozole groups). After a median follow-up of 84 months, 7-year disease-free survival was 81.4% in intermittent group and 81.5% in continuous group (hazard ratio: 1.03, 95%CI: 0.91-1.17). Reported adverse events were similar in both groups. Circulating estrogen recovery was demonstrated within 6 weeks after the stop of letrozole treatment.Extended adjuvant endocrine therapy by intermittent administration of letrozole did not improve disease-free survival compared to continuous use despite the recovery of circulating estrogen level. The similar disease-free survival coupled with previously reported quality-of-life advantages suggest intermittent extended treatment is a valid option for patients who require or prefer a treatment interruption.
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| 9. |
- Colleoni, M., et al.
(författare)
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Low-Dose Oral Cyclophosphamide and Methotrexate Maintenance for Hormone Receptor-Negative Early Breast Cancer: International Breast Cancer Study Group Trial 22-00
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of Clinical Oncology. - : American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO). - 0732-183X .- 1527-7755. ; 34:28, s. 3400-9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose To evaluate the benefit of low-dose cyclophosphamide and methotrexate (CM) maintenance, which previously demonstrated antitumor activity and few adverse effects in advanced breast cancer, in early breast cancer. International Breast Cancer Study Group (IBCSG) Trial 22-00, a randomized phase III clinical trial, enrolled 1,086 women (1,081 intent-to-treat) from November 2000 to December 2012. Women with estrogen receptor- and progesterone receptor-negative (< 10% positive cells by immunohistochemistry) early breast cancer any nodal and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 status, were randomly assigned anytime between primary surgery and 56 days after the first day of last course of adjuvant chemotherapy to CM maintenance (cyclophosphamide 50 mg/day orally continuously and methotrexate 2.5 mg twice/day orally on days 1 and 2 of every week for 1 year) or to no CM. The primary end point was disease-free survival (DFS), which included invasive recurrences, second (breast and nonbreast) malignancies, and deaths. After a median of 6.9 years of follow-up, DFS was not significantly better for patients assigned to CM maintenance compared with patients assigned to no CM, both overall (hazard ratio [HR], 0.84; 95% CI, 0.66 to 1.06;P = .14) and in triple-negative (TN) disease (n = 814; HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.60 to 1.06). Patients with TN, node-positive disease had a nonstatistically significant reduced HR (n = 340; HR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.49 to 1.05). Seventy-one (13%) of 542 patients assigned to CM maintenance did not start CM. Of 473 patients who received at least one CM maintenance dose (including two patients assigned to no CM), 64 (14%) experienced a grade 3 or 4 treatment-related adverse event; elevated serum transaminases was the most frequently reported (7%), followed by leukopenia (2%). CM maintenance did not produce a significant reduction in DFS events in hormone receptor-negative early breast cancer. The trend toward benefit observed in the TN, node-positive subgroup supports additional exploration of this strategy in the TN, higher-risk population. (C) 2016 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.
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| 10. |
- Gizaw, A., et al.
(författare)
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Colonization and diversification in the African 'sky islands': insights from fossil-calibrated molecular dating of Lychnis (Caryophyllaceae)
- 2016
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Ingår i: New Phytologist. - : Wiley. - 0028-646X .- 1469-8137. ; 211:2, s. 719-734
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The flora on the isolated high African mountains or 'sky islands' is remarkable for its peculiar adaptations, local endemism and striking biogeographical connections to remote parts of the world. Ages of the plant lineages and the timing of their radiations have frequently been debated but remain contentious as there are few estimates based on explicit models and fossil-calibrated molecular clocks. We used the plastid region maturaseK (matK) and a Caryophylloflora paleogenica fossil to infer the age of the genus Lychnis, and constructed a data set of three plastid (matK; a ribosomal protein S16 (rps16); and an intergenic spacer (psbE-petL)) and two nuclear (internal transcribed spacer (ITS) and a region spanning exon 18-24 in the second largest subunit of RNA polymerase II (RPB2)) loci for joint estimation of the species tree and divergence time of the African representatives. The time of divergence of the African high-altitude Lychnis was placed in the late Miocene to early Pliocene. A single speciation event was inferred in the early Pliocene; subsequent speciation took place sporadically from the late Pliocene to the middle Pleistocene. We provide further support for a Eurasian origin of the African 'sky islands' floral elements, which seem to have been recruited via dispersals at different times: some old, as in Lychnis, and others very recent. We show that dispersal and diversification within Africa play an important role in shaping these isolated plant communities.
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| 12. |
- Phillips, K. A., et al.
(författare)
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Adjuvant ovarian function suppression and cognitive function in women with breast cancer
- 2016
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Ingår i: British Journal of Cancer. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0007-0920 .- 1532-1827. ; 114:9, s. 956-964
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: To examine the effect on cognitive function of adjuvant ovarian function suppression (OFS) for breast cancer. Methods: The Suppression of Ovarian Function (SOFT) trial randomised premenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer to 5 years adjuvant endocrine therapy with tamoxifen + OFS, exemestane + OFS or tamoxifen alone. The Co-SOFT substudy assessed objective cognitive function and patient reported outcomes at randomisation (T0), and 1 year later (T1); the primary endpoint was change in global cognitive function, measured by the composite objective cognitive function score. Data were compared for the pooled tamoxifen + OFS and exemestane + OFS groups vs the tamoxifen alone group using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test. Results: Of 86 participants, 74 underwent both T0 and T1 cognitive testing; 54 randomised to OFS+ either tamoxifen (28) or exemestane (26) and 20 randomised to tamoxifen alone. There was no significant difference in the changes in the composite cognitive function scores between the OFS+ tamoxifen or exemestane groups and the tamoxifen group (mean +/- s.d., -0.21 +/- 0.92 vs -0.04 +/- 0.49, respectively, P = 0.71, effect size = -0.20), regardless of prior chemotherapy status, and adjusting for baseline characteristics. Conclusions: The Co-SOFT study, although limited by small samples size, provides no evidence that adding OFS to adjuvant oral endocrine therapy substantially affects global cognitive function.
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| 17. |
- Ardo, Shane, et al.
(författare)
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Pathways to electrochemical solar-hydrogen technologies
- 2018
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Ingår i: Energy & Environmental Science. - : Royal Society of Chemistry. - 1754-5692 .- 1754-5706. ; 11:10, s. 2768-2783
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Solar-powered electrochemical production of hydrogen through water electrolysis is an active and important research endeavor. However, technologies and roadmaps for implementation of this process do not exist. In this perspective paper, we describe potential pathways for solar-hydrogen technologies into the marketplace in the form of photoelectrochemical or photovoltaic-driven electrolysis devices and systems. We detail technical approaches for device and system architectures, economic drivers, societal perceptions, political impacts, technological challenges, and research opportunities. Implementation scenarios are broken down into short-term and long-term markets, and a specific technology roadmap is defined. In the short term, the only plausible economical option will be photovoltaic-driven electrolysis systems for niche applications. In the long term, electrochemical solar-hydrogen technologies could be deployed more broadly in energy markets but will require advances in the technology, significant cost reductions, and/ or policy changes. Ultimately, a transition to a society that significantly relies on solar-hydrogen technologies will benefit from continued creativity and influence from the scientific community.
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| 18. |
- Bogren, Malin, 1970, et al.
(författare)
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Health workforce perspectives of barriers inhibiting the provision of quality care in Nepal and Somalia : A qualitative study
- 2020
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Ingår i: Sexual and Reproductive Healthcare. - : Elsevier. - 1877-5756. ; 23
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- ObjectiveIn this paper settings from Nepal and Somalia are used to focus on the perspectives of healthcare providers within two fragile health systems. The objective of this study was to describe barriers inhibiting quality healthcare in Nepal and Somalia from a health workforce perspective.MethodsData were collected through 19 semi-structured interviews with healthcare providers working in healthcare facilities. Ten interviews were conducted in Nepal and nine in Somalia.ResultsVarious structural barriers inhibiting the availability, accessibility, and acceptability of the quality care were similar in both countries. Barriers inhibiting the availability of quality care were linked to healthcare providers being overburdened with multiple concurrent jobs. Barriers inhibiting the accessibility to quality healthcare included long distances and the uncertain availability of transportation, and barriers to acceptability of quality healthcare was inhibited by a lack of respect from healthcare providers, characterised by neglect, verbal abuse, and lack of competence.ConclusionsInequality, poverty, traditional and cultural practices plus the heavy burden placed on healthcare providers are described as the underlying causes of the poor provision of quality care and the consequential shortcomings that emerge from it. In order to improve this situation adequate planning and policies that support the deployment and retention of the healthcare providers and its equitable distribution is required. Another important aspect is provision of training to equip healthcare providers with the ability to provide respectful quality care in order for the population to enjoy good standard of healthcare services.
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| 19. |
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| 20. |
- Karakatsanis, Andreas, et al.
(författare)
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Effect of preoperative injection of superparamagnetic iron oxide particles on rates of sentinel lymph node dissection in women undergoing surgery for ductal carcinoma in situ (SentiNot study)
- 2019
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Ingår i: British Journal of Surgery. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0007-1323 .- 1365-2168. ; 106:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: One-fifth of patients with a preoperative diagnosis of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) have invasive breast cancer (IBC) on definitive histology. Sentinel lymph node dissection (SLND) is performed in almost half of women having surgery for DCIS in Sweden. The aim of the present study was to try to minimize unnecessary SLND by injecting superparamagnetic iron oxide (SPIO) nanoparticles at the time of primary breast surgery, enabling SLND to be performed later, if IBC is found in the primary specimen. Methods: Women with DCIS at high risk for the presence of invasion undergoing breast conservation, and patients with DCIS undergoing mastectomy were included. The primary outcome was whether this technique could reduce SLND. Secondary outcomes were number of SLNDs avoided, detection rate and procedure-related costs. Results: This was a preplanned interim analysis of 189 procedures. IBC was found in 47 and a secondary SLND was performed in 41 women. Thus, 78.3 per cent of patients avoided SLND (P<0.001). At reoperation, SPIO plus blue dye outperformed isotope and blue dye in detection of the sentinel node (40 of 40 versus 26 of 40 women; P<0.001). Costs were reduced by a mean of 24.5 per cent in women without IBC (3990 versus 5286; P<0.001). Conclusion: Marking the sentinel node with SPIO in women having surgery for DCIS was effective at avoiding unnecessary SLND in this study. Registration number: ISRCTN18430240 (http://www.isrctn.com).
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| 21. |
- Metcalfe, Daniel B., et al.
(författare)
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Patchy field sampling biases understanding of climate change impacts across the Arctic
- 2018
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Ingår i: Nature Ecology and Evolution. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-334X. ; 2:9, s. 1443-1448
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Effective societal responses to rapid climate change in the Arctic rely on an accurate representation of region-specific ecosystem properties and processes. However, this is limited by the scarcity and patchy distribution of field measurements. Here, we use a comprehensive, geo-referenced database of primary field measurements in 1,840 published studies across the Arctic to identify statistically significant spatial biases in field sampling and study citation across this globally important region. We find that 31% of all study citations are derived from sites located within 50 km of just two research sites: Toolik Lake in the USA and Abisko in Sweden. Furthermore, relatively colder, more rapidly warming and sparsely vegetated sites are under-sampled and under-recognized in terms of citations, particularly among microbiology-related studies. The poorly sampled and cited areas, mainly in the Canadian high-Arctic archipelago and the Arctic coastline of Russia, constitute a large fraction of the Arctic ice-free land area. Our results suggest that the current pattern of sampling and citation may bias the scientific consensuses that underpin attempts to accurately predict and effectively mitigate climate change in the region. Further work is required to increase both the quality and quantity of sampling, and incorporate existing literature from poorly cited areas to generate a more representative picture of Arctic climate change and its environmental impacts.
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| 26. |
- Abdi, A. M., et al.
(författare)
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First assessment of the plant phenology index (PPI) for estimating gross primary productivity in African semi-arid ecosystems
- 2019
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Ingår i: International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation. - : Elsevier BV. - 1569-8432. ; 78, s. 249-260
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The importance of semi-arid ecosystems in the global carbon cycle as sinks for CO 2 emissions has recently been highlighted. Africa is a carbon sink and nearly half its area comprises arid and semi-arid ecosystems. However, there are uncertainties regarding CO 2 fluxes for semi-arid ecosystems in Africa, particularly savannas and dry tropical woodlands. In order to improve on existing remote-sensing based methods for estimating carbon uptake across semi-arid Africa we applied and tested the recently developed plant phenology index (PPI). We developed a PPI-based model estimating gross primary productivity (GPP) that accounts for canopy water stress, and compared it against three other Earth observation-based GPP models: the temperature and greenness (T-G) model, the greenness and radiation (GöR) model and a light use efficiency model (MOD17). The models were evaluated against in situ data from four semi-arid sites in Africa with varying tree canopy cover (3–65%). Evaluation results from the four GPP models showed reasonable agreement with in situ GPP measured from eddy covariance flux towers (EC GPP) based on coefficient of variation (R 2 ), root-mean-square error (RMSE), and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The GöR model produced R 2 = 0.73, RMSE = 1.45 g C m −2 d −1 , and BIC = 678; the T-G model produced R 2 = 0.68, RMSE = 1.57 g C m −2 d −1 , and BIC = 707; the MOD17 model produced R 2 = 0.49, RMSE = 1.98 g C m −2 d −1 , and BIC = 800. The PPI-based GPP model was able to capture the magnitude of EC GPP better than the other tested models (R 2 = 0.77, RMSE = 1.32 g C m −2 d −1 , and BIC = 631). These results show that a PPI-based GPP model is a promising tool for the estimation of GPP in the semi-arid ecosystems of Africa.
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| 27. |
- Abdi, Hakim, et al.
(författare)
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The El Niño – La Niña cycle and recent trends in supply and demand of net primary productivity in African drylands
- 2016
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Ingår i: Climatic Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 138:1, s. 111-125
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Inter-annual climatic variability over a large portion of sub-Saharan Africa is under the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Extreme variability in climate is a threat to rural livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa, yet the role of ENSO in the balance between supply and demand of net primary productivity (NPP) over this region is unclear. Here, we analyze the impact of ENSO on this balance in a spatially explicit framework using gridded population data from the WorldPop project, satellite-derived data on NPP supply, and statistical data from the United Nations. Our analyses demonstrate that between 2000 and 2013 fluctuations in the supply of NPP associated with moderate ENSO events average ± 2.8 g C m−2 yr.−1 across sub-Saharan drylands. The greatest sensitivity is in arid Southern Africa where a + 1 °C change in the Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature index is associated with a mean change in NPP supply of −6.6 g C m−2 yr.−1. Concurrently, the population-driven trend in NPP demand averages 3.5 g C m−2 yr.−1 over the entire region with densely populated urban areas exhibiting the highest mean demand for NPP. Our findings highlight the importance of accounting for the role ENSO plays in modulating the balance between supply and demand of NPP in sub-Saharan drylands. An important implication of these findings is that increase in NPP demand for socio-economic metabolism must be taken into account within the context of climate-modulated supply.
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| 32. |
- Andaji-Garmaroudi, Z., et al.
(författare)
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Elucidating and Mitigating Degradation Processes in Perovskite Light-Emitting Diodes
- 2020
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Ingår i: Advanced Energy Materials. - : Wiley-VCH Verlag. - 1614-6832 .- 1614-6840. ; 10:48
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Halide perovskites have attracted substantial interest for their potential as disruptive display and lighting technologies. However, perovskite light-emitting diodes (PeLEDs) are still hindered by poor operational stability. A fundamental understanding of the degradation processes is lacking but will be key to mitigating these pathways. Here, a combination of in operando and ex situ measurements to monitor the performance degradation of (Cs0.06FA0.79MA0.15)Pb(I0.85Br0.15)3 PeLEDs over time is used. Through device, nanoscale cross-sectional chemical mapping, and optical spectroscopy measurements, it is revealed that the degraded performance arises from an irreversible accumulation of bromide content at one interface, which leads to barriers to injection of charge carriers and thus increased nonradiative recombination. This ionic segregation is impeded by passivating the perovskite films with potassium halides, which immobilizes the excess halide species. The passivated PeLEDs show enhanced external quantum efficiency (EQE) from 0.5% to 4.5% and, importantly, show significantly enhanced stability, with minimal performance roll-off even at high current densities (>200 mA cm−2). The decay half-life for the devices under continuous operation at peak EQE increases from <1 to ≈15 h through passivation, and ≈200 h under pulsed operation. The results provide generalized insight into degradation pathways in PeLEDs and highlight routes to overcome these challenges.
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| 33. |
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| 34. |
- Boke-Olén, Niklas, et al.
(författare)
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Estimating Grazing Potentials in Sudan Using Daily Carbon Allocation in Dynamic Vegetation Model
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Rangeland Ecology and Management. - : Elsevier BV. - 1550-7424. ; 71:6, s. 792-797
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Livestock production is important for local food security and as a source of income in sub-Saharan Africa. The human population of the region is expected to double by 2050, and at the same time climate change is predicted to negatively affect grazing resources vital to livestock. Therefore, it is essential to model the potential grazing output of sub-Saharan Africa in both present and future climatic conditions. Standard tools to simulate plant productivity are dynamic vegetation models (DVMs). However, as they typically allocate carbon to plant growth at an annual time step, they have a limited capability to simulate grazing. Here, we present a novel implementation of daily carbon allocation for grasses into the DVM Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS) and apply this to study the grazing potential for the Kordofan region in Sudan. The results show a latitudinal split in grazing resources, where the northern parts of Kordofan are unexploited and southern parts are overused. Overall, we found that the modeled grazing potential of Kordofan is 16% higher than the livestock usage reported in the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, indicating a mitigation potential in the form of a spatial relocation of the herds.
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| 35. |
- Brauer,, Michael, et al.
(författare)
-
Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050 : a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
- 2024
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 403:10440, s. 2204-2256
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.METHODS: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.FINDINGS: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8-63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0-45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2-34·1] to 15·5% [13·7-17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4-40·3) to 41·1% (33·9-48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6-25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5-43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5-17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7-11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7-27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5-6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2-26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [-0·6 to 3·6]).INTERPRETATION: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 36. |
- Brauer,, Michael, et al.
(författare)
-
Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
- 2024
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 403:10440, s. 2162-2203
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.METHODS: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.FINDINGS: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).INTERPRETATION: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 37. |
- DAddio, Francesca, et al.
(författare)
-
The IGFBP3/TMEM219 pathway regulates beta cell homeostasis
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Nature Portfolio. - 2041-1723. ; 13:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this new study the Authors demonstrated that the IGFBP3/TMEM219 pathway is a physiological regulator of pancreatic beta cell homeostasis and it is dysregulated in diabetes. IGFBP3/TMEM219 targeting may therefore serve as a therapeutic option in diabetes. Loss of pancreatic beta cells is a central feature of type 1 (T1D) and type 2 (T2D) diabetes, but a therapeutic strategy to preserve beta cell mass remains to be established. Here we show that the death receptor TMEM219 is expressed on pancreatic beta cells and that signaling through its ligand insulin-like growth factor binding protein 3 (IGFBP3) leads to beta cell loss and dysfunction. Increased peripheral IGFBP3 was observed in established and at-risk T1D/T2D patients and was confirmed in T1D/T2D preclinical models, suggesting that dysfunctional IGFBP3/TMEM219 signaling is associated with abnormalities in beta cells homeostasis. In vitro and in vivo short-term IGFBP3/TMEM219 inhibition and TMEM219 genetic ablation preserved beta cells and prevented/delayed diabetes onset, while long-term IGFBP3/TMEM219 blockade allowed for beta cell expansion. Interestingly, in several patients cohorts restoration of appropriate IGFBP3 levels was associated with improved beta cell function. The IGFBP3/TMEM219 pathway is thus shown to be a physiological regulator of beta cell homeostasis and is also demonstrated to be disrupted in T1D/T2D. IGFBP3/TMEM219 targeting may therefore serve as a therapeutic option in diabetes.
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| 38. |
- Derakhshandeh, J., et al.
(författare)
-
Fabrication of 100 nm gate length MOSFET's using a novel carbon nanotube-based nano-lithography
- 2005
-
Ingår i: Materials Science & Engineering. - : Elsevier BV. - 0921-5107 .- 1873-4944. ; 124, s. 354-358
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- PECVD-grown carbon nanotubes on (100)silicon substrates have been studied and exploited for electron emission applications. After the growth of vertical CNT's [Y. Abdi, J. Koohsorkhi, J. Derakhshandeh, S. Mohajerzadeh, H. Hosseinzadegan, M.D. Robertson, C. Benet, EMRS Spring Meeting, Strasbourg, France, May 2005] the grown nanotubes are encapsulated by means of an insulating TiO(2) layer, leading to beam-shape emission of electrons from the cathode towards the opposite anode electrode. The electron emission occurs using an anode-cathode voltage of 100 V with ability of direct writing on a photo-resist-coated substrates. Straight lines with widths between 50 and 200 nm have been successfully drawn. This technique has been applied on P-type (100)silicon substrates for the formation of the gate of N-MOSFET devices. The successful realization of MOSFET devices indicates its usefulness for applications in nano-electronic devices. This device has inversion Cox exceeding 0.7 mu F/cm(2), drive current equal to 3 10 mu A/mu m.
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| 39. |
- GBD 2021 Risk Factors Collaborators,, et al.
(författare)
-
Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
- 2024
-
Ingår i: Lancet (London, England). - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 403:10440, s. 2162-2203
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 40. |
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| 41. |
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| 42. |
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| 43. |
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| 44. |
- McMenamin, Martina, et al.
(författare)
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WHO Global Situational Alert System : a mixed methods multistage approach to identify country-level COVID-19 alerts
- 2023
-
Ingår i: BMJ Global Health. - 2059-7908. ; 8:7
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Globally, since 1 January 2020 and as of 24 January 2023, there have been over 664 million cases of COVID-19 and over 6.7 million deaths reported to WHO. WHO developed an evidence-based alert system, assessing public health risk on a weekly basis in 237 countries, territories and areas from May 2021 to June 2022. This aimed to facilitate the early identification of situations where healthcare capacity may become overstretched. Methods The process involved a three-stage mixed methods approach. In the first stage, future deaths were predicted from the time series of reported cases and deaths to produce an initial alert level. In the second stage, this alert level was adjusted by incorporating a range of contextual indicators and accounting for the quality of information available using a Bayes classifier. In the third stage, countries with an alert level of 'High' or above were added to an operational watchlist and assistance was deployed as needed. Results Since June 2021, the system has supported the release of more than US$27 million from WHO emergency funding, over 450 000 rapid antigen diagnostic testing kits and over 6000 oxygen concentrators. Retrospective evaluation indicated that the first two stages were needed to maximise sensitivity, where 44% (IQR 29%-67%) of weekly watchlist alerts would not have been identified using only reported cases and deaths. The alerts were timely and valid in most cases; however, this could only be assessed on a non-representative sample of countries with hospitalisation data available. Conclusions The system provided a standardised approach to monitor the pandemic at the country level by incorporating all available data on epidemiological analytics and contextual assessments. While this system was developed for COVID-19, a similar system could be used for future outbreaks and emergencies, with necessary adjustments to parameters and indicators.
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| 45. |
- Munch, Marie W., et al.
(författare)
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Effect of 12 mg vs 6 mg of Dexamethasone on the Number of Days Alive Without Life Support in Adults With COVID-19 and Severe Hypoxemia The COVID STEROID 2 Randomized Trial
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA). - : AMER MEDICAL ASSOC. - 0098-7484 .- 1538-3598. ; 326:18, s. 1807-1817
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Question What is the effect of 12 mg vs 6 mg of dexamethasone on the number of days alive without life support at 28 days in patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxemia? Findings In this randomized trial that included 1000 patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxemia, treatment with 12 mg/d of dexamethasone resulted in 22.0 days alive without life support at 28 days compared with 20.5 days in those receiving 6 mg/d of dexamethasone. This difference was not statistically significant. Meaning Compared with 6 mg of dexamethasone, 12 mg of dexamethasone did not statistically significantly reduce the number of days alive without life support at 28 days. This multicenter randomized clinical trial compares the effects of 12 mg/d vs 6 mg/d of dexamethasone in patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxemia. IMPORTANCE A daily dose with 6 mg of dexamethasone is recommended for up to 10 days in patients with severe and critical COVID-19, but a higher dose may benefit those with more severe disease. OBJECTIVE To assess the effects of 12 mg/d vs 6 mg/d of dexamethasone in patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxemia. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A multicenter, randomized clinical trial was conducted between August 2020 and May 2021 at 26 hospitals in Europe and India and included 1000 adults with confirmed COVID-19 requiring at least 10 L/min of oxygen or mechanical ventilation. End of 90-day follow-up was on August 19, 2021. INTERVENTIONS Patients were randomized 1:1 to 12 mg/d of intravenous dexamethasone (n = 503) or 6 mg/d of intravenous dexamethasone (n = 497) for up to 10 days. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was the number of days alive without life support (invasive mechanical ventilation, circulatory support, or kidney replacement therapy) at 28 days and was adjusted for stratification variables. Of the 8 prespecified secondary outcomes, 5 are included in this analysis (the number of days alive without life support at 90 days, the number of days alive out of the hospital at 90 days, mortality at 28 days and at 90 days, and >= 1 serious adverse reactions at 28 days). RESULTS Of the 1000 randomized patients, 982 were included (median age, 65 [IQR, 55-73] years; 305 [31%] women) and primary outcome data were available for 971 (491 in the 12 mg of dexamethasone group and 480 in the 6 mg of dexamethasone group). The median number of days alive without life support was 22.0 days (IQR, 6.0-28.0 days) in the 12 mg of dexamethasone group and 20.5 days (IQR, 4.0-28.0 days) in the 6 mg of dexamethasone group (adjusted mean difference, 1.3 days [95% CI, 0-2.6 days]; P = .07). Mortality at 28 days was 27.1% in the 12 mg of dexamethasone group vs 32.3% in the 6 mg of dexamethasone group (adjusted relative risk, 0.86 [99% CI, 0.68-1.08]). Mortality at 90 days was 32.0% in the 12 mg of dexamethasone group vs 37.7% in the 6 mg of dexamethasone group (adjusted relative risk, 0.87 [99% CI, 0.70-1.07]). Serious adverse reactions, including septic shock and invasive fungal infections, occurred in 11.3% in the 12 mg of dexamethasone group vs 13.4% in the 6 mg of dexamethasone group (adjusted relative risk, 0.83 [99% CI, 0.54-1.29]). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Among patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxemia, 12 mg/d of dexamethasone compared with 6 mg/d of dexamethasone did not result in statistically significantly more days alive without life support at 28 days. However, the trial may have been underpowered to identify a significant difference.
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| 46. |
- Pansell, T, et al.
(författare)
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Ophthalmologic findings in patients with non-surgically treated blowout fractures
- 2012
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Ingår i: Craniomaxillofacial trauma & reconstruction. - : SAGE Publications. - 1943-3875 .- 1943-3883. ; 5:1, s. 1-6
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We evaluated the ocular and visual status in a group of patients with a non-surgically treated blowout fracture. Clinical examination with refraction, test of binocular function, and tear film evaluation was performed in 23 patients. These values were statistically correlated with the orbital volume measurements and ocular finding from the patient records at presentation. About 50% of the study group was symptomatic due to low visual acuity from refractive errors and decompensated phorias as a consequence of the blowout fracture. Several patients displayed changes in tear film production. There was no strong correlation between the measured parameters and orbital volume measurements. Patients with a non-surgically treated blowout fracture often display ocular and visual changes after discharge. A routine visual exam is advocated in all patients after the ocular status has stabilized after a blowout fracture.
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| 47. |
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| 48. |
- Ribi, Karin, et al.
(författare)
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Quality of life under extended continuous versus intermittent adjuvant letrozole in lymph node-positive, early breast cancer patients: the SOLE randomised phase 3 trial.
- 2019
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Ingår i: British journal of cancer. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1532-1827 .- 0007-0920. ; 120, s. 959-967
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In the phase III SOLE trial, the extended use of intermittent versus continuous letrozole for 5 years did not improve disease-free survival in postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer. Intermittent therapy with 3-month breaks may be beneficial for patients' quality of life (QoL).In the SOLE QoL sub-study, 956 patients completed the Breast Cancer Prevention Trial (BCPT) symptom and further QoL scales up to 24 months after randomisation. Differences in change of QoL from baseline between the two administration schedules were tested at 12 and 24 months using repeated measures mixed-models. The primary outcome was change in hot flushes at 12 months.There was no difference in hot flushes at 12 months between the two schedules, but patients receiving intermittent letrozole reported significantly more improvement at 24 months. They also indicated less worsening in vaginal problems, musculoskeletal pain, sleep disturbance, physical well-being and mood at 12 months. Overall, 25-30% of patients reported a clinically relevant worsening in key symptoms and global QoL.Less symptom worsening was observed during the first year of extended treatment with the intermittent administration. For women experiencing an increased symptom burden of extended adjuvant endocrine therapy, an intermittent administration is a safe alternative.Clinical trial information: NCT00651456.
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| 49. |
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| 50. |
- Van Steenwinckel, Juliette, et al.
(författare)
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Decreased microglial Wnt/β-catenin signalling drives microglial pro-inflammatory activation in the developing brain.
- 2019
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Ingår i: Brain : a journal of neurology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1460-2156. ; 142:12, s. 3806-3833
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Microglia of the developing brain have unique functional properties but how their activation states are regulated is poorly understood. Inflammatory activation of microglia in the still-developing brain of preterm-born infants is associated with permanent neurological sequelae in 9 million infants every year. Investigating the regulators of microglial activation in the developing brain across models of neuroinflammation-mediated injury (mouse, zebrafish) and primary human and mouse microglia we found using analysis of genes and proteins that a reduction in Wnt/β-catenin signalling is necessary and sufficient to drive a microglial phenotype causing hypomyelination. We validated in a cohort of preterm-born infants that genomic variation in the Wnt pathway is associated with the levels of connectivity found in their brains. Using a Wnt agonist delivered by a blood-brain barrier penetrant microglia-specific targeting nanocarrier we prevented in our animal model the pro-inflammatory microglial activation, white matter injury and behavioural deficits. Collectively, these data validate that the Wnt pathway regulates microglial activation, is critical in the evolution of an important form of human brain injury and is a viable therapeutic target.
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