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- Abram, Nerilie J., et al.
(författare)
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Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents
- 2016
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 536:7617, s. 411-418
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The evolution of industrial-era warming across the continents and oceans provides a context for future climate change and is important for determining climate sensitivity and the processes that control regional warming. Here we use post-ad 1500 palaeoclimate records to show that sustained industrial-era warming of the tropical oceans first developed during the mid-nineteenth century and was nearly synchronous with Northern Hemisphere continental warming. The early onset of sustained, significant warming in palaeoclimate records and model simulations suggests that greenhouse forcing of industrial-era warming commenced as early as the mid-nineteenth century and included an enhanced equatorial ocean response mechanism. The development of Southern Hemisphere warming is delayed in reconstructions, but this apparent delay is not reproduced in climate simulations. Our findings imply that instrumental records are too short to comprehensively assess anthropogenic climate change and that, in some regions, about 180 years of industrial-era warming has already caused surface temperatures to emerge above pre-industrial values, even when taking natural variability into account.
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| 2. |
- Abram, Nerilie, et al.
(författare)
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Understanding the climate of the past 2000 years: Phase 3of the PAGES 2k Network
- 2017
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Ingår i: Past Global Changes Magazine. - : Past Global Changes (PAGES). - 2411-605X .- 2411-9180. ; 25:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The PAGES 2k Network was created with the aim of reconstructing changes in regional and global surface climate over the past 2000 years. During Phases 1 (2008-2013) and 2 (2014-2016), regional and trans-regional groupings focused on building reconstructions for terrestrial regions and the oceans. The conclusion of Phase 2 coincided with the release of an open and transparent global database of temperature-sensitive proxies spanning the Common Era (Fig. 1; PAGES 2k Consortium 2017). This product will be followed up by a special issue of Climate of the Past, entitled “Climate of the past 2000 years: regional and trans-regional syntheses”
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| 3. |
- Erhardt, Tobias, et al.
(författare)
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High-resolution aerosol concentration data from the Greenland NorthGRIP and NEEM deep ice cores
- 2022
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Ingår i: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 14:3, s. 1215-1231
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Records of chemical impurities from ice cores enable us to reconstruct the past deposition of aerosols onto polar ice sheets and alpine glaciers. Through this they allow us to gain insight into changes of the source, transport and deposition processes that ultimately determine the deposition flux at the coring location. However, the low concentrations of the aerosol species in the ice and the resulting high risk of contamination pose a formidable analytical challenge, especially if long, continuous and highly resolved records are needed. Continuous flow analysis, CFA, the continuous melting, decontamination and analysis of ice-core samples has mostly overcome this issue and has quickly become the de facto standard to obtain high-resolution aerosol records from ice cores after its inception at the University of Bern in the mid-1990s.Here, we present continuous records of calcium (Ca2+), sodium (Na+), ammonium (NH+4), nitrate (NO-3) and electrolytic conductivity at 1 mm depth resolution from the NGRIP (North Greenland Ice Core Project) and NEEM (North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling) ice cores produced by the Bern Continuous Flow Analysis group in the years 2000 to 2011 (Erhardt et al., 2021). Both of the records were previously used in a number of studies but were never published in full 1 mm resolution. Alongside the 1 mm datasets we provide decadal averages, a detailed description of the methods, relevant references, an assessment of the quality of the data and its usable resolution. Along the way we will also give some historical context on the development of the Bern CFA system.
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| 4. |
- Fischer, Hubertus, et al.
(författare)
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Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond
- 2018
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Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 11:7, s. 474-485
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Over the past 3.5 million years, there have been several intervals when climate conditions were warmer than during the pre-industrial Holocene. Although past intervals of warming were forced differently than future anthropogenic change, such periods can provide insights into potential future climate impacts and ecosystem feedbacks, especially over centennial-to-millennial timescales that are often not covered by climate model simulations. Our observation-based synthesis of the understanding of past intervals with temperatures within the range of projected future warming suggests that there is a low risk of runaway greenhouse gas feedbacks for global warming of no more than 2 °C. However, substantial regional environmental impacts can occur. A global average warming of 1–2 °C with strong polar amplification has, in the past, been accompanied by significant shifts in climate zones and the spatial distribution of land and ocean ecosystems. Sustained warming at this level has also led to substantial reductions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with sea-level increases of at least several metres on millennial timescales. Comparison of palaeo observations with climate model results suggests that, due to the lack of certain feedback processes, model-based climate projections may underestimate long-term warming in response to future radiative forcing by as much as a factor of two, and thus may also underestimate centennial-to-millennial-scale sea-level rise.
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| 5. |
- Klein, François, et al.
(författare)
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Assessing the robustness of Antarctic temperature reconstructions over the past 2 millennia using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments
- 2019
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Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 15:2, s. 661-684
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Antarctic temperature changes over the past millennia remain more uncertain than in many other continental regions. This has several origins: (1) the number of high-resolution ice cores is small, in particular on the East Antarctic plateau and in some coastal areas in East Antarctica; (2) the short and spatially sparse instrumental records limit the calibration period for reconstructions and the assessment of the methodologies; (3) the link between isotope records from ice cores and local climate is usually complex and dependent on the spatial scales and timescales investigated. Here, we use climate model results, pseudoproxy experiments and data assimilation experiments to assess the potential for reconstructing the Antarctic temperature over the last 2 millennia based on a new database of stable oxygen isotopes in ice cores compiled in the framework of Antarctica2k (Stenni et al.,). The well-known covariance between δ 18 O and temperature is reproduced in the two isotope-enabled models used (ECHAM5/MPI-OM and ECHAM5-wiso), but is generally weak over the different Antarctic regions, limiting the skill of the reconstructions. Furthermore, the strength of the link displays large variations over the past millennium, further affecting the potential skill of temperature reconstructions based on statistical methods which rely on the assumption that the last decades are a good estimate for longer temperature reconstructions. Using a data assimilation technique allows, in theory, for changes in the δ 18 O-temperature link through time and space to be taken into account. Pseudoproxy experiments confirm the benefits of using data assimilation methods instead of statistical methods that provide reconstructions with unrealistic variances in some Antarctic subregions. They also confirm that the relatively weak link between both variables leads to a limited potential for reconstructing temperature based on δ 18 O. However, the reconstruction skill is higher and more uniform among reconstruction methods when the reconstruction target is the Antarctic as a whole rather than smaller Antarctic subregions. This consistency between the methods at the large scale is also observed when reconstructing temperature based on the real δ 18 O regional composites of Stenni et al. (2017). In this case, temperature reconstructions based on data assimilation confirm the long-term cooling over Antarctica during the last millennium, and the later onset of anthropogenic warming compared with the simulations without data assimilation, which is especially visible in West Antarctica. Data assimilation also allows for models and direct observations to be reconciled by reproducing the east-west contrast in the recent temperature trends. This recent warming pattern is likely mostly driven by internal variability given the large spread of individual Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP)/Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model realizations in simulating it. As in the pseudoproxy framework, the reconstruction methods perform differently at the subregional scale, especially in terms of the variance of the time series produced. While the potential benefits of using a data assimilation method instead of a statistical method have been highlighted in a pseudoproxy framework, the instrumental series are too short to confirm this in a realistic setup.
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