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- Soultan, Alaaeldin, et al.
(författare)
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The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution
- 2022
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9318 .- 1748-9326. ; 17:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s-2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr-1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr-1. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to 'climate debt'. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds' resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.
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| 3. |
- van Swaay, Chris A.M., et al.
(författare)
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The European Butterfly Indicator for Grassland species: 1990-2015
- 2016
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This report presents the sixth version of the European Grassland Butterfly Indicator, one of the EU biodiversity indicators of the European Environment Agency.The indicator is based on more than 9200 transects in national Butterfly Monitoring Schemes covering 22 countries across Europe, most of them active in the European Union. In 2015, counts were made in more than 4500 transects.Butterflies represent the largest animal group (insects), highly included in food webs, having a high impact on ecosystem services and stability. This report does not represent only the patrimonial conservation of some species, but indicates the changes in biodiversity on grasslands and discusses underlying causes.Fluctuations in numbers between years are typical features of butterfly populations. The assessment of change istherefore made on an analysis of the underlying trend.Indicators were produced on EU, European (EU plus Norway and Switzerland) and pan-European level (including Ukraine, Russia and Armenia).The underlying analysis of the indicator shows that since 1990, grassland butterfly abundance has declined by 30%.The rate of loss has slowed in the last 5-10 years. Part of this slowing down might be caused by climate warming, as this favours cold-blooded animals like butterflies, thus masking the effects of intensification. In parts of Western Europe butterfly numbers outside nature reserves have come to an absolute minimum, meaning it is unlikely for the indicator to further drop.The priority now is to halt further losses and support recovery. This can only come about with greater protection and more sustainable management of semi-natural grassland.
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