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- Dykstra, Pearl, et al.
(författare)
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Improving pandemic preparedness and management : Lessons learned and ways forward : independent expert report
- 2020
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Epidemics and pandemics have shaped human history and will continue to do so. The COVID-19 crisis has shown that there is need to understand how Europe can ensure better management of and preparedness for them. This joint advice builds on lessons learned from the current and from previous pandemics. It analyses their complexity, drawing on insights from research and scholarship and taking Europeanvalues and respect for fundamental rights as critical orientation. It is developed jointly by the European Commission’s independent Group of Chief Scientific Advisors, the European Group on Ethics in Science and New Technologies (EGE) and Peter Piot, Special Advisor to the President of the European Commission on the response to COVID-19. Their recommendations include strengthened European and global solidarity and coordination in governance, research and community efforts to improve pandemic preparedness and management. This should address all aspects and causes of pandemics in their complex interplay, from biomedical and health to social and environmental ones. The advice covers efforts to prevent and pre-empt future pandemics; more coordinated response structures and mechanisms; the strengthening of essential systems, including healthcare, supply chains, public health, information and education; and protecting fundamental rights and social justice.
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| 2. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 3. |
- Wright, Cassandra, et al.
(författare)
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Effectiveness of an Ecological Momentary Intervention for Reducing Risky Alcohol Consumption Among Young Adults : Protocol for a Three-Arm Randomized Controlled Trial
- 2020
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Ingår i: JMIR Research Protocols. - : JMIR Publications Inc.. - 1929-0748. ; 9:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Recent research has investigated the utility of mobile phone-delivered interventions for reducing risky single-occasion drinking, also known as binge drinking. In the past five years, focus has been placed on ecological momentary interventions (EMIs), which aim to deliver intervention content in correspondence to real-time assessments of behavior, also known as ecological momentary assessments (EMAs).Objective: This study aims to assess the effect of a fully automated, tailored, mobile phone-delivered EMI termed Mobile Intervention for Drinking in Young people (MIDY) on young people's risky single-occasion drinking behavior.Methods: We will use a three-armed randomized controlled trial design to determine the impact of MIDY on peak consumption of alcohol among young people. A list of mobile telephone numbers for random digit dialing will be generated, and researchers will telephone potential participants to screen for eligibility. Participants will be randomized into one of three intervention groups. For 6 weeks, EMI, EMA, and attention control groups will complete hourly EMA surveys on their mobile phones on Friday and Saturday nights. EMI participants will receive personalized feedback in the form of text messages corresponding to their EMA survey responses, which focus on alcohol consumption, spending, and mood. EMA participants will not receive feedback. A third group will also complete EMA and receive feedback text messages at the same time intervals, but these will be focused on sedentary behavior and technology use. All groups will also complete a short survey on Saturday and Sunday mornings, with the primary outcome measure taken on Sunday mornings. A more detailed survey will be sent on the final Sunday of the 6-week period, and then again 1 year after recruitment.Results: The primary outcome measure will be an observed change (ie, reduction) in the mean peak number of drinks consumed in a single night over the 6-week intervention period between the EMI and attention control groups as measured in the weekly EMA. We expect to see a greater reduction in mean peak drinking in the EMI group compared to that in the attention control group. As a secondary aim, we will assess whether mean peak drinking is reduced in the EMA group compared to the attention control group. We will use a random-effects mixed-modeling approach using maximum-likelihood estimation to provide estimates of differences in peak drinking across time periods between those receiving the intervention (EMI) and attention control participants. An intention-to-treat approach will be taken for the analysis. Individuals and study groups will be modeled as random and fixed factors, respectively.Conclusions: This study extends our previous work investigating the efficacy of a mobile EMI (MIDY) for reducing risky drinking among young adults in Australia, and will add to the expanding literature on the use of mobile interventions for reducing risky alcohol consumption.
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| 4. |
- Wright, Cassandra, et al.
(författare)
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Mobile Phone-Based Ecological Momentary Intervention to Reduce Young Adults' Alcohol Use in the Event : A Three-Armed Randomized Controlled Trial
- 2018
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Ingår i: JMIR mhealth and uhealth. - : JMIR Publications Inc.. - 2291-5222. ; 6:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Real-time ecological momentary interventions have shown promising effects in domains other than alcohol use; however, only few studies regarding ecological momentary interventions for alcohol use have been conducted thus far. The increasing popularity of smartphones offers new avenues for intervention and innovation in data collection.Objective: We aimed to test the efficacy of an ecological momentary intervention, comprising mobile Web-based ecological momentary assessments (EMAs) and text messaging (short message service, SMS) brief interventions, delivered during drinking events using participants' mobile phones.Methods: We conducted a three-armed randomized controlled trial to assess the effect of a mobile Web-based ecological momentary assessment with texting feedback on self-reported alcohol consumption and alcohol-related harms in young adults. Participants were enrolled from an existing observational cohort study of young adults screened for risky drinking behavior. The intervention group (ecological momentary intervention group) completed repeated ecological momentary assessments during 6 drinking events and received immediate texting-based feedback in response to each ecological momentary assessment. The second group (ecological momentary assessment group) completed ecological momentary assessments without the brief intervention, and the third did not receive any contact during the trial period. Recent peak risky single-occasion drinking was assessed at the baseline and follow-up using telephone interviews. We used a random effects mixed modeling approach using maximum likelihood estimation to provide estimates of differences in mean drinking levels between groups between baseline and 12-week follow-up.Results: A total of 269 participants were randomized into the 3 groups. The ecological momentary intervention group exhibited a small and nonsignificant increase between baseline and follow-up in (geometric) the mean number of standard drinks consumed at the most recent heavy drinking occasion (mean 12.5 vs 12.7). Both ecological momentary assessment and control groups exhibited a nonsignificant decrease (ecological momentary assessment: mean 13.8 vs 11.8; control: mean 12.3 vs 11.6); these changes did not differ significantly between groups (Wald chi(2)(2) 1.6; P=. 437) and the magnitude of the effects of the intervention were markedly small. No other significant differences between groups on measures of alcohol consumption or related harms were observed. The intervention acceptability was high despite the technical problems in delivery.Conclusions: With a small number of participants, this study showed few effects of an SMS-based brief intervention on peak risky single-occasion drinking. Nevertheless, the study highlights areas for further investigation into the effects of EMI on young adults with heavy alcohol consumption.
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