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1.
  • Lozano, Rafael, et al. (författare)
  • Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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2.
  • Murray, Christopher J. L., et al. (författare)
  • Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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3.
  • Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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4.
  • Feigin, Valery L., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 18:5, s. 459-480
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders.Methods: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach.Findings: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable).Interpretation: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies.Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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5.
  • Feigin, Valery L., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 20:10, s. 795-820
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels. Methods We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level. Findings In 2019, there were 12.2 million (95% UI 11.0-13.6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93.2-111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133-153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6.55 million (6.00-7.02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11.6% [10.8-12.2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5.7% [5.1-6.2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70.0% (67.0-73.0), prevalent strokes increased by 85.0% (83.0-88.0), deaths from stroke increased by 43.0% (31.0-55.0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32.0% (22.0-42.0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17.0% (15.0-18.0), mortality decreased by 36.0% (31.0-42.0), prevalence decreased by 6.0% (5.0-7.0), and DALYs decreased by 36.0% (31.0-42.0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22.0% (21.0-24.0) and incidence rates increased by 15.0% (12.0-18.0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3.6 (3.5-3.8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3.7 (3.5-3.9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62.4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7.63 million [6.57-8.96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27.9% (3.41 million [2.97-3.91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9.7% (1.18 million [1.01-1.39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79.6 million [67.7-90.8] DALYs or 55.5% [48.2-62.0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34.9 million [22.3-48.6] DALYs or 24.3% [15.7-33.2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28.9 million [19.8-41.5] DALYs or 20.2% [13.8-29.1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28.7 million [23.4-33.4] DALYs or 20.1% [16.6-23.0]), and smoking (25.3 million [22.6-28.2] DALYs or 17.6% [16.4-19.0]). Interpretation The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries.
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6.
  • Garmabaki, Amir, et al. (författare)
  • Maintenance Optimization Using Multi-Attribute Utility Theory
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Current Trends in Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Safety. - Cham : Encyclopedia of Global Archaeology/Springer Verlag. - 9783319235967 - 9783319235974 ; , s. 13-25
  • Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Several factors such as reliability, availability, and cost may consider in the maintenance modeling. In order to develop an optimal inspection program, it is necessary to consider the simultaneous effect of above factor in the model structure. In addition, for finding the optimal maintenance interval it is necessary to make trade-offs between several factors, which may conflicting each other as well. The study comprises of mathematical formulating an optimal interval problem based on Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT). The aim of the proposed research is to develop a methodology with supporting tools for determination of optimal inspection in a maintenance planning to assure and preserve a desired level of performance measure such as reliability, availability, risk, etc. For verification and validation purposes, the proposed methodology (analysis approach) and tools (models) will be applied in a real case which given by the literature.
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7.
  • Garmabaki, Amir, et al. (författare)
  • Reliability modeling of open source software based on adoption behavior under stochastic environment
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Safety and reliability of complex engineered systems. - Boca Raton : CRC Press. - 9781138028791 ; , s. 3995-3999
  • Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
    • In the current digitalized world, Open Source Software (OSS) methodology provides greater value to users and leads to increased revenue for the OSS companies. This paper investigates reliability modeling for OSS. Most of software reliability models proposed in literature for OSS projects are based on closed-form methodology and do not consider the properties of OSS in the model structure. This paper models the rate of adoption of volunteers to OSS using diffusion theory and considered as fault detection rate. However, the fault detection rate may vary in such a testing environment; a modified SRGM based on Itô type Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) is proposed to describe realistic situations. The proposed model have been verified on real data sets from open source projects, as the Apache project, which has been released in the market with new features. Results show the proposed model can describe the failure process for open source software accurately.
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8.
  • Mokdad, Ali H., et al. (författare)
  • Diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease in the Eastern Mediterranean Region : findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Public Health. - : SPRINGER BASEL AG. - 1661-8556 .- 1661-8564. ; 63, s. 177-186
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We used findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study to update our previous publication on the burden of diabetes and chronic kidney disease due to diabetes (CKD-DM) during 1990-2015. We extracted GBD 2015 estimates for prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of diabetes (including burden of low vision due to diabetes, neuropathy, and amputations and CKD-DM for 22 countries of the EMR from the GBD visualization tools. In 2015, 135,230 (95% UI 123,034-148,184) individuals died from diabetes and 16,470 (95% UI 13,977-18,961) from CKD-DM, 216 and 179% increases, respectively, compared to 1990. The total number of people with diabetes was 42.3 million (95% UI 38.6-46.4 million) in 2015. DALY rates of diabetes in 2015 were significantly higher than the expected rates based on Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Our study showed a large and increasing burden of diabetes in the region. There is an urgency in dealing with diabetes and its consequences, and these efforts should be at the forefront of health prevention and promotion.
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9.
  • Ahmadi, Alireza (författare)
  • Aircraft scheduled maintenance programme development : decision support methodologies and tools
  • 2010
  • Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • The air transport business is large in its operations, integrated, automated and complex. Air carriers are constantly striving to achieve high standards of safety and simultaneously to attain an increased level of availability performance at minimal cost. This needs to be supported through an effective maintenance programme which has a major impact on the availability performance and which ultimately can enhance the aircraft’s capability to meet market demands at the lowest possible cost. The development of a maintenance programme is challenging, but can be enhanced by supporting methodologies and tools. The purpose of this study is to develop decision support methodologies and tools for aircraft scheduled maintenance programme development within the framework of Maintenance Review Board (MRB) process. To achieve the purpose of the research, literature studies, case studies, and simulations have been conducted. Empirical data have been collected through document studies, interviews, questionnaires, and observations from the aviation industry. For data analysis, theories and methodologies within risk, dependability and decision making have been combined with the best practices from the aviation industry. One result of the research is the identification of potential areas for improving the use of MSG-3 methodology in aircraft scheduled maintenance development. Another result is the development of a systematic methodology guided by the application of an Event Tree Analysis (ETA) for the identification and quantification of different operational risks caused by aircraft system failures, to support decision making for maintenance task development. A third result is a proposed methodology, based on a combination of different Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methodologies, for selecting the most effective maintenance strategy for aircraft scheduled maintenance development. Finally, the fourth result is a proposed Cost Rate Function (CRF) model supported by a graphical approach. The approach can be used to identify the optimum maintenance interval and frequencies of Failure Finding Inspection (FFI) and to develop a combination of FFI and restoration tasks for the aircraft’s repairable items which are experiencing aging. These results are related to some of the specific industrial challenges, and are expected to enhance the capability of making effective and efficient decisions during the development of maintenance tasks. The results have been verified through interaction with experienced practitioners within major aviation manufacturers and air operators.
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10.
  • Ahmadi, Alireza (författare)
  • An assessment of operational consequences of failures to support aircraft scheduled maintenance program development
  • 2007
  • Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • A majority of the direct and indirect maintenance costs in the life cycle of aircraft stems from the consequences of decisions taken during the initial maintenance program development. In particular, the preventive and corrective maintenance requirements, which greatly influence both the system availability and life cycle cost, need to be defined in order to perform only those preventive actions that are absolutely necessary and costeffective. Reliability-Centered Maintenance (RCM) is a systematic methodology used to identify the preventive maintenance tasks that are necessary to realize the inherent reliability of equipment at the lowest possible cost. Developing a scheduled maintenance program by means of RCM consists of identifying those preventive tasks which are both applicable (technically feasible) and effective (worth doing). An applicable maintenance task must satisfy the requirements of the type of failure to restore the item's initial performance capability. To be effective, a preventive maintenance task must lead to a reduced risk (or expected loss) of the consequence classes to a level which is acceptable to the user. In the design development phase, in order to identify the most cost effective solution, a design trade-off study is needed. This involves choosing the correct balance of the cost of consequences of failure and its correction, with their cost of prevention. However, during initial aircraft maintenance program development, lack of a methodology that supports the assessment of the operational consequences of failures has made the costeffectiveness analysis of maintenance tasks a challenging issue. This might reduce the accuracy of the analysis, which results in higher maintenance costs and may decreases the punctuality of operation, which ultimately increases the total aircraft life cycle cost. The purpose of this study is to develop a methodology for identifying different operational consequences and associated costs caused by aircraft system failure, in order to facilitate and enhance the capability of taking correct and efficient decisions when analyzing the cost-effectiveness of maintenance tasks. Some empirical studies of possible scenarios involving aircraft failures and their operational consequences for a commercial airline have been performed. Empirical data were extracted through document studies and interviews, guided by the application of an Event Tree Analysis (ETA). The analysis was performed together with experienced practitioners from both an aircraft manufacturer and commercial airlines, which contributed to a continuous verification of the outcomes of the study. Finally, the study has also estimated the associated cost of the identified operational consequences of failures. In order to quantify the operational consequences of failures, in the absence of adequate and reliable data, a methodology using pair-wise comparison technique has been applied to extract judgments of experts efficiently
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11.
  • Ahmadi, Alireza, et al. (författare)
  • An overview of trends in aircraft maintenance program development : past, present, and future
  • 2007
  • Ingår i: Risk, Reliability and Societal Safety. - London : Taylor and Francis Group. - 9780415447867 ; , s. 2067-2076
  • Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The purpose of this paper is to describe the trends in aircraft maintenance program development during the last 50 years, including the reasons for the aircraft industry to change its view of maintenance. The major milestones and fundamental reasons for such development are also discussed and illustrated in relation to a flow diagram, which shows the logical and chronological order of the trends. Finally, the paper describes some possibilities and challenges as regards applying Information & Communication Technology (ICT) within the emerging approach of e-Maintenance in order to enhance the surveillance of aircraft maintenance program performance.
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12.
  • Ahmadi, Alireza, et al. (författare)
  • Assessment of the cost of operational consequences of failures in aircraft operation
  • 2007
  • Ingår i: Proceedings of 3rd International Conference on Reliability and Safety.
  • Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Maintenance decisions regarding aircraft require consideration of the operational impact of failures. The cost of the operational impact of failure is difficult to assess due to the influence of a large number of contributory factors. This study attempts to assess the cost of operational consequences of failures using the expertise of the field experts following a pairwise contribution technique. The study shows that the proposed model can be a tool to assess the cost of operational consequences of failures in aircraft operation, when there is not sufficient and reliable data
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13.
  • Ahmadi, Alireza, et al. (författare)
  • Assessment of the operational consequences of aircraft failures : using event tree analysis
  • 2008
  • Ingår i: 2008 IEEE Aerospace Conference. - Piscataway, NJ : IEEE Communications Society. - 9781424414871 ; , s. 1-14
  • Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The purpose of this paper is to describe a methodology that supports an assessment of the operational consequences of failures in aircraft systems and its associated costs, in order to facilitate a correct and efficient decision-making during cost-effectiveness analysis of maintenance tasks within scheduled aircraft maintenance program development. The paper is based on empirical studies of possible scenarios from aircraft failure to operational consequences in commercial airlines. Empirical data was extracted through document studies and interviews, guided by the application of an Event Tree Analysis (ETA). The analysis was performed together with experienced practitioners from both an aircraft manufacturer and commercial airlines, which contributed to a continuous verification of the outcomes of the study. The proposed methodology, which is based on ETA, is considered as a valuable support in the assessment of the operational consequences of failures within a MSG-3 framework. The proposed methodology focuses on assessing the operational consequences of failures and associated economical losses. Hence, in order to enable an estimation of the maintenance tasks' cost-effectiveness, the methodology should be further developed to include a cost assessment of the applicable maintenance tasks. The proposed methodology could be adapted as a support to those involved in the development of aircraft maintenance program. The operational consequences and the probabilities of the proposed event tree can be quantified by the aid of historical data or expert judgment.
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14.
  • Ahmadi, Alireza, et al. (författare)
  • Cost based risk analysis to identify inspection and restoration intervals of hidden failures subject to aging
  • 2011
  • Ingår i: IEEE Transactions on Reliability. - 0018-9529 .- 1558-1721. ; 60:1, s. 197-209
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The analytical model presented in this paper aims to study possible maintenance strategies considering risk constrains, to preserve or assure availability of hidden functions of a repairable unit in aircraft systems considering ageing effect. The paper discusses two known strategies for hidden failure management aviation and other high risk industries, namely Failure Finding Inspection (FFI), and a combination of a series of FFI and restoration after a specific number of FFI cycles ( i.e., FFI-Rs strategy). Based on discussions, the paper introduces a new approach named Dynamic Failure Finding Inspection strategy (DFFI) to assure the acceptable level of risk and also the unit's hidden function availability continuously . The paper presents analytical methods to estimate optimal FFI, and optimal thresholds for restoration of degradation (refreshing risk level) within FFI-Rs strategy. It also discusses criteria used to select appropriate thresholds to change the FFI intervals within DFFI strategy, i.e. reducing inspection intervals after specific thresholds, to reduce the risk. The method is based on the mean proportion of time i.e. (Mean Functional Dead Time, MFDT) that the unit is not functioning during the inspection intervals and the average unavailability behavior within the restoration/discard period. The proposed method considers inspection, repair, and restoration times, and takes in to account costs associated with inspection, repair, restoration, potential losses due to non-availability of aircraft due to maintenance downtime or accident often caused multiple failures.
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15.
  • Ahmadi, Alireza (författare)
  • Discrete element technique for modeling high-speed railway tracks
  • 2023
  • Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • The Discrete element method (DEM) is a methodology to investigatethe interactions among granular materials. It analyzes the behavior of par-ticulate environments by solving force-displacement equations that adhereto Newton’s second law of motion. Despite its usefulness, the DEM is notwithout limitations, and researchers are still facing certain challenges thatrestrict them from performing detailed analyses of granular materials. Thisstudy addresses two issues in DEM modeling of granular materials in rail-way embankments. Firstly, the long computational time required by theDEM for modeling fine angular particles in granular materials is addressedby exploring the effects of particle scaling on the shear behavior of granularmaterial. This study investigates the impact of particle size distribution,particle angularity, and the amount of scaling on the accuracy and compu-tational efficiency of DEM. Secondly, the limitations of DEM in includingthe continuous rail beam structure in the track are addressed by verifyinga DEM model against physical measurements of a full-scale ballasted trackand investigating the influence of including the rail beam structure on high-speed railway ballasted tracks. The results show that the use of particlescaling in the first study significantly improves the computational efficiencyof the DEM while maintaining accuracy, and this method is used in thesecond study to investigate the influence of the rail beam structure on thebehavior of railway tracks.
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16.
  • Ahmadi, Alireza (författare)
  • Epidemiology, risk and protective factors of self-immolation : a study from Iran
  • 2013
  • Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • Background: Suicide by self-burning (self-immolation) is one of the suicide methods that is far more common in low-middle income countries than in high-income ones. Iran is one of the countries that has a high rate of self-immolation. Women are the main victims as the reports show. In this study we aim to find the epidemiology, risk and protective factors of self-immolation. Methods: Initially, we analyzed two national databases to identify the epidemiological aspects of self-immolation including demographic, geographic, cultural, economic and health-related characteristics of fatal self-immolation cases that may vary across regions of Iran (sub-study I). Subsequently, we conducted two case–control studies in regard to attempted self-immolation. One titled Preliminary study with 60 participants (30 cases and 30 controls), and the other entitled Main study with 151 cases and 302 controls dedicated to identifying the risks and protective factors of self-immolation (sub-study II-IV). Results: Results show that the total rate of suicide by all methods in Iran was 6.42 per 100,000, of which 1.74 per 100,000 (27%) were self-immolation. Seventy one percent of the self-immolators were female and the mean age was 29 years. The geographical features of self-immolation indicate that self-immolation rates are higher in the border provinces of the country, in the rural areas, and in the provinces that were most intensively affected by the postwar socioeconomic consequences, as well as Kurdish people. Results from our studies show that adjustment disorders, opium dependence, major depression, and an individual history of suicide attempts were risk factors. In the married subgroup, marital conflict and addiction of spouse and in unmarried subgroup, problems with parents, parents’ death and parents’ addiction were identified as risk factors. Moreover, "receiving consultation services" and "anxiety about school/ university performance" played protective roles against self-immolation. Regarding identification of potential factors for future prevention interventions, descriptive analyses revealed that the means of self-immolation in more than 93% of patients was kerosene. Imitational self-immolation was showed in most of self-immolation cases (more than 60%). The majority of participants (both cases and control) had not used any "consulting services" to solve or manage their problems or enhance their problem-solving abilities. Moreover, unplanned (impulsive) self-immolation was detected in 80% of all self-immolation patients Conclusion: Overall, in this study we found that self-immolation is an important public health issue in particular regions in Iran. Our results also suggest that self-immolation is a compound phenomenon with multiple potential causes. Our results have implications for interventions that aim at screening, identification, and education of individuals who are at-risk for self-immolation to reduce the rate of self-immolation in the study area.
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17.
  • Ahmadi, Alireza, et al. (författare)
  • Estimation of economic consequences of aircraft system failures
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: Communications in Dependability and Quality Management. - 1450-7196. ; 15:1, s. 39-49
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • A large portion of the direct and indirect aircraft operational costs stems from the consequences of decisions made during the maintenance program development. Decision on maintenance task selection for non-safety category of failures, is based on the cost effectiveness, in which the cost of preventive maintenance should be less than the costs associated with the corrective action and failure consequence. Although the assessment of the direct cost for preventive and corrective maintenance is quiet straightforward, however quantification and estimation of the cost associated with the consequence of failure is a great challenge. This is due to a long list of contributory factors and lack of adequate data regarding the cost headings. This study attempts to estimate the economic consequences of aircraft system failures which lead to a technical delay. The paper considers financial losses, mostly due to the additional unexpected costs related to the flight crew, passengers, aircraft itself, ramp and airport, when one of the cost headings, e.g. the pre-fixed crew cost is known. The experience of the field experts has been used following a pairwise comparison technique to compare the cost headings, and to estimate the contribution of each one to the total cost of a delay. The study shows that the proposed model can be a tool to assess the cost of failure consequences in aircraft operation, when there is a limited data and information regarding the cost headings.
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18.
  • Ahmadi, Alireza, et al. (författare)
  • Inspection Optimization under imperfect maintenance performance
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Proceedings of MPMM 2016. - Luleå : Luleå tekniska universitet. - 9789175838410 ; , s. 139-
  • Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Scheduled maintenance and inspection development is one of the main requirements for emergency equipment and safety devices. These types of devices have hidden functions which are used intermittently or infrequently, so their failure will not be evident to the operating crew. The analytical model presented in this paper deals with the periodically tested units with overhauls (preventive maintenance) after certain number of inspections and a renewal after a series of overhauls. The cost based optimization method presented in this paper identifies the optimum interval and frequency of Failure Finding Inspection (FFI) and restoration. In the proposed model, repair due to failures found by inspection makes the unit As Bad As Old, and restoration/overhaul action rejuvenates the unit to any condition between As Good As New and As Bad As Old. As Good As New effectiveness also is considered for renewal action. It considers inspection and repair times, and takes into account the costs associated with inspection, repair, restoration, and also the cost of accidents due to the occurrence of multiple failure. The results show that when the unit is not under aging process, the optimal alternative for each inspection interval is the one with highest possible number of inspection without restoration. Finally, it is observed that when the cost of accident is quite high it is needed to perform inspections at smaller intervals to control the risk of accident.
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19.
  • Ahmadi, Alireza, et al. (författare)
  • Integration of RCM and PHM for the next generation of aircraft
  • 2009
  • Ingår i: 2009 IEEE Aerospace Conference. - Piscataway, NJ : IEEE Communications Society. - 9781424426218
  • Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
    • With global cuts in defense budgets, air forces have to sustain the same level of readiness with a reduced number of aircraft. To succeed with this challenge, it is not sufficient to improve current maintenance concepts, but new ones also have to be introduced.Traditionally, the development of on-board functions and maintenance concepts has been performed rather independently. The new approach is to focus on an integration of these two developments and to adapt a life cycle view together with a disregard of organizational boundaries.To facilitate the necessary change, a study is performed by Saab and Luleå University of Technology. The study focuses on the possibilities to integrate RCM and PHM in a cost-effective way. The aim is to reduce the workload of maintenance development and to find out how to combine RCM and PHM to achieve a joint development of the aircraft and its maintenance program throughout the aircraft's whole life cycle.The paper describes some similarities and differences between RCM and PHM. Furthermore, the paper describes some aspects of how RCM and PHM are complementing each other and what kind of adaptations that has to be done to achieve a successful integration. For example, a good application of RCM early in system design might generate a pull for PHM-technology integration and motivate design changes of the aircraft. Simultaneously, available PHM-technologies might strongly affect the selection of applicable and effective maintenance tasks in the development of the initial maintenance program. PHM might also support a surveillance of the maintenance program's performance. The description is highlighted with examples and experiences from the Swedish Gripen fighter aircraft. Finally, the paper also outlines some suggestions for further research.
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20.
  • Ahmadi, Alireza, et al. (författare)
  • On aircraft scheduled maintenance program development
  • 2010
  • Ingår i: Journal of Quality in Maintenance Engineering. - : Emerald. - 1355-2511 .- 1758-7832. ; 16:3, s. 229-255
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present issues and challenges of scheduled maintenance task development within the maintenance review board (MRB) process, and to find potential areas of improvement in the application of the MSG-3 methodology for aircraft systems. Design/methodology/approach – The issues and challenges as well as potential areas of improvement have been identified through a constructive review that consists of two parts. The first part is a benchmarking between the Maintenance Steering Group (MSG-3) methodology and other established and documented versions of reliability-centred maintenance (RCM). This benchmarking focuses on the MSG-3 methodology and compares it with some RCM standards to identify differences and thereby find ways to facilitate the application of MSG-3. The second part includes a discussion about methodologies and tools that can support different steps of the MSG-3 methodology within the framework of the MRB process. Findings – The MSG-3 methodology is closely related to the RCM methodology, in which the anticipated consequences of failure are considered for risk evaluation. However, MSG-3 considers neither environmental effects of failures nor operational consequences of hidden failures. Furthermore, in MSG-3, the operational check (failure-finding inspection) is given priority before all other tasks, whereas in RCM it is considered as a default action, where there is no other applicable and effective option. While RCM allows cost-effectiveness analysis for all failures that have no safety consequences, MSG-3 just allows it for failures with economic consequences. A maintenance program that is established through the MRB process fulfils the requirements of continuous airworthiness, but there is no foundation to claim that it is the optimal or the most effective program from an operator’s point-of-view. The major challenge when striving to achieve a more effective maintenance program within the MRB process is to acquire supporting methodologies and tools for adequate risk analysis, for optimal interval assignments, and for selection of the most effective maintenance task. Originality/value – The paper presents a critical review of existing aircraft scheduled maintenance program development methodologies, and demonstrates the differences between MSG-3 and other RCM methodologies.
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21.
  • Ahmadi, Alireza, et al. (författare)
  • Optimum Failure Finding Inspection During Extended Operation Life
  • 2013
  • Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
    • In a complex system such as railway and aviation equipment’s, it may be necessary to employ a combination of Failure Finding Inspection (FFI) and a scheduled discard task, as suggested by Reliability-Centered Maintenance (RCM). This strategy ensures an adequate level of availability of hidden functions, as well as the reduction of the risk of multiple failures to an acceptable level. However, in some situations, operators prefer to extend the discard life of components beyond their recommended life limit, due to the operational restrictions. This necessitates the definition of an optimal Failure Finding Inspection interval for the extended life period. This paper aims to provide a mathematical model for defining optimal FFI interval, during the extended period of the replacement life. A cost function (CF) is developed to identify the cost per unit of time associated with different FFI intervals, for the proposed extended period of life, i.e. postponement period. The proposed method concerns as-bad-as-old (ABAO) inspection and repairs (due to failures found by inspection). It considers inspection and repair times, and takes into account the costs associated with inspection and repair, the opportunity cost of lost production due to maintenance downtime created by inspection and repair actions, and also the cost of accidents due to the occurrence of multiple failure
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22.
  • Ahmadi, Alireza, et al. (författare)
  • Optimum failure management strategy for periodically inspected units with imperfect maintenance
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: IFAC-PapersOnLine. - : Elsevier BV. - 2405-8963. ; 49:12, s. 799-804
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The aim of this paper is to develop a reliability-based cost model for periodically inspected units subject to hidden functions, with imperfect restoration (overhaul) action after a certain number of inspections. In the model, effectiveness of the consecutive restoration actions is considered, and possible alternative maintenance strategies are identified and compared. The method is based on the Total Cost and identifies the optimum interval and frequency of inspections, as well as restoration that minimize the total life cycle cost. In the proposed model, repair due to failures found by inspection is considered as minimal repair, and restoration/overhaul action is considered as normal repair. The result also shows that for a specific value of restoration effectiveness (θ0), when θ> θ0, the behavior of alternatives tends to as-bad-as-old and for θ< θ0 tends to an as-good-as-new. It is also observed that when the cost of accident is high it is needed to perform inspections at smaller intervals.
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23.
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24.
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25.
  • Ahmadi, Alireza, et al. (författare)
  • Prerequisites for a business-oriented fleet availability assurance program in aviation
  • 2010
  • Ingår i: Proceedings of the 1st international workshop and congress on eMaintenance. - Luleå : Luleå tekniska universitet. ; , s. 168-175
  • Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The air transport business is a large, integrated, automated and complex domain with high requirements on safety, security and dependability. In order to achieve customer satisfaction and gain a global competitive advantage, provision of services is essential. In air transport business with an extensive competition, the consequences of unreliable services become more critical which may increase cost of operation and reduce productivity. Furthermore, occurrence of unreliable services might also lead to annoyance, inconvenience and a lasting customer dissatisfaction that can create serious problem with regarding the responsible company‟s marketplace position. Hence, it is crucial for air transport companies to continuously improve the quality of the services they provide to customer. In the context of air transport, maintenance process and maintenance-related services have a high impact on effectiveness, productivity and costs. Maintenance departments are required to ensure that their fleet is expected to meet, or continues to meet, airline‟s established availability performance goals (e.g. operational readiness, dispatch reliability and cost affectivity) and to ensure that demands for deliveries will met. One way to align maintenance decisions and business objectives and at the same time highlight where the potential weakness in the systems and maintenance performance can be expected, is through Fleet Availability Assurance Program (FAAP). However, an effective implementation of FAAP needs adaptation to the usage context. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to present an availability assurance program in airline industries, in which the essential functional elements of such a program are discussed. The paper also proposes an integrated information logistic infrastructure for this management system.
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26.
  •  
27.
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28.
  • Ahmadi, Alireza, et al. (författare)
  • Risk based maintenance decision for periodically tested repairable components subject to hidden failure
  • 2011
  • Ingår i: Proceedings of 2nd International Conference on Reliability, Safety and Hazard - ICRESH 2010. - Piscataway, NJ : IEEE Communications Society. - 9781424483440 - 9781424483433 ; , s. 197-204
  • Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
    • This paper aims to develop a graphical method to facilitate the identification of risk and cost of postponement of restoration for repairable components which are periodically tested and whose failures are hidden, i.e, are detectable by inspection or upon demand. The paper focuses on the items which are under aging, however, the methodology is flexible to implement for any aging pattern. The paper considers Failure Finding Inspection (FFI) with restoration actions (FFI+Res), for the “safety effect” categories of hidden failures. As-bad-as-old (ABAO) inspection effectiveness and as-good-as-new (AGAN) restoration effectiveness are considered. In case of repair due to findings by inspection, as-bad-as-old repair effectiveness is considered. The graphical methodology proposed in this paper considers inspection and repair times, as well as the costs associated with accident, inspection, repair, and restoration, and takes into account the opportunity losses due to the maintenance downtime. The analytical approach is based on the Mean Fractional Dead Time. In the case of an operational limit, when it is not possible to remove the unit for restoration, or one needs to use the unit longer than the expected operating time, the paper introduces an approach to analyzing the possibility of and conditions for providing an extension to the restoration interval that satisfies the risk constraints and the business requirements at the same time.
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29.
  • Ahmadi, Alireza, et al. (författare)
  • Risk based maintenance deferral for components subject to hidden failure
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: 2012 proceedings. - Piscataway, NJ : IEEE Communications Society. - 9781457718496
  • Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
    • In the aviation industry, it may be necessary to employ a combination of Failure Finding Inspection (FFI) and a scheduled discard task at a specific threshold, when a component is aging and its failures are hidden and exert a “safety effect”. This is to ensure an adequate level of availability of hidden functions, and to reduce the risk of multiple failures to an acceptable level. However, in some situations, operators prefer to extend the discard life of components beyond their recommended life limit, due to operational needs or logistic issues. This necessitates the definition of an optimal Failure Finding Inspection interval for the extended life period. The main purpose of this paper is to develop analytical and graphical methodologies to identify the optimal FFI interval for extension of the discard life of aircraft components. The paper considers repairable components which are periodically tested. The methodology assumes that the inspection and repair actions lead to as-bad-as-old (ABAO) reliability characteristics.The graphical approach proposed in this paper considers inspection and repair times, as well as the costs associated with accidents, inspection, and repair, and it takes into account the opportunity losses due to the maintenance downtime. The analytical approach for calculating the unavailability of the hidden function is based on the Mean Fractional Dead Time (MFDT).
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30.
  • Ahmadi, Alireza, et al. (författare)
  • Risk of operational consequences of aircraft system failure
  • 2010
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Performability Engineering. - 0973-1318. ; 6:2, s. 149-158
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The purpose of this paper is to describe a methodology for identifying different operational consequences and associated costs caused by aircraft system failure, in order to facilitate and enhance the capability of taking correct and efficient decisions when analyzing the cost-effectiveness of maintenance tasks. The paper focuses on the operational consequences of failures that lead to delay. To identify the operational consequences of aircraft system failures, Empirical studies of possible scenarios involving aircraft failures and their operational consequences for a commercial airline have been performed. Empirical data were extracted through document studies and interviews, guided by the application of an Event Tree Analysis (ETA). In order to effectively utilize the knowledge of field experts in the assessment process, a pairwise comparison technique was adopted for quantifying the contribution of different factors to the operational. The work was performed together with experienced practitioners from both an aircraft manufacturer and commercial airlines, which contributed to a continuous verification of the outcome of the study.The study shows that the proposed methodology based on ETA and pairwise comparison can be used to identify and quantify the cost of operational consequences of failures in aircraft operation, when there is no sufficient and reliable data.
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31.
  • Ahmadi, Alireza, et al. (författare)
  • Selection of maintenance strategy for aircraft systems using multi-criteria decision making methodologies
  • 2010
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Reliability, Quality and Safety Engineering (IJRQSE). - 0218-5393. ; 17:3, s. 223-243
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • This paper, proposes the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methodology for selection of a maintenance strategy to assure the consistency and effectiveness of maintenance decisions. The methodology is based on an AHP-enhanced TOPSIS, VIKOR and benefit-cost ratio, in which the importance of the effectiveness appraisal criteria of a maintenance strategy is determined by the use of AHP. Furthermore, in the proposed methodology the different maintenance policies are ranked using the benefit-cost ratio, TOPSIS and VIKOR. The method provides a basis for consideration of different priority factors governing decisions, which may include the rate of return, total profit, or lowest investment. When the preference is the rate of return, the benefit-cost ratio is used, and for the total profit TOPSIS is applied. In cases where the decision maker has specific preferences, such as the lowest investment, VIKOR is adopted. The proposed method has been tested through a case study within the aviation context for an aircraft system. It has been found that using the methodology presented in the paper, the relative advantage and disadvantage of each maintenance strategy can be identified in consideration of different aspects, which contributes to the consistent and rationalized justification of the maintenance task selection. The study shows that application of the combined AHP, TOPSIS, and VIKOR methodologies is an applicable and effective way to implement a rigorous approach for identifying the most effective maintenance alternative.
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32.
  • Ahmadi, Alireza, et al. (författare)
  • Selection of maintenance strategy, using analytical hierarchy process
  • 2009
  • Ingår i: Communications in Dependability and Quality Management. - 1450-7196. ; 12:1, s. 121-132
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Selection of appropriate maintenance strategy is key to economic viability of aviation and manufacturing industries. The study discusses and presents an approach to facilitate the selection of the most appropriate maintenance strategy on the basis of the cost-benefit analysis by using Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP). The goal is to select the most cost-effective alternative, among Run-To-Failure (RTF), Preventive Maintenance (PM), incorporating Prognostic Health Management(PHM) capability, or any possible Design-Out Maintenance (DOM) strategies, which positively affects on aircraft operational availability. In this paper we proposed a stepwise algorithm to guide the selection process, based on two criteria of operational availability (benefit) and cost of failure.
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33.
  • Ahmadi, Alireza, et al. (författare)
  • Simulation of railway track geometry and intelligent maintenance planning : [Simulering av järnvägsspårgeometri och intelligent underhållsplanering]
  • 2021
  • Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • Track is the fundamental part of railway infrastructure and represents a significant part of maintenance effort and cost. For example, in Sweden, the annual maintenance cost for only track geometry is between110 and 130 MSEK. The quality of the track, mostly, is represented by the track geometry properties. Track geometry degrades with age and usage; and loses its functionality over time. Poor quality of track geometry may result in safety problems, speed reduction, traffic disruption, greater maintenance cost, and higher degradation rate of the other railway components (e.g. rails, wheels, switches, and crossings). Railway track maintenance program development is challenging and requires appropriate modeling which reflects the real-life scenario and integrates influencing factors. In addition, there are several uncertainties in data collection, data analysis, modeling, and the prediction that are needed to be considered. Moreover, there is a lack of integrated platform that is able to access geometry data, extract associatedinformation, and retain this knowledge for supporting adaptive maintenance planning and scheduling. The above challenges necessitate the Infrastructure Manager (IM) to employ a maintenance management system that enables higher capacity for evaluation of track performance, learning from asset history, context-driven awareness, planning & scheduling, and transformation of this information to knowledge for decision making. The SIMTRACK project will facilitate simulation-based platform that enables development of a tools,methodologies and techniques for optimization of track geometry maintenance planning, scheduling andopportunistic maintenance. This will provide a basis to predict track geometry degradation, analyse therisk of failures and forecast the maintenance activities as well as renewal investment requirements. The results will enhance safety, maximize capacity utilization, and lead to an efficient and cost effective maintenance program. The project structure track is structured into 6 work packages. WP1 deals with the project management. WP2 presentsthe industrial scenarios, specifications and requirements that provide inputs to WP3 and WP4. WP3 andWP4 are defined as predictive modelling and analytics of track geometry condition and trackmaintenance optimization and decision support system respectively. WP5 is dedicated to evaluation ofabsolute track geometry condition. Finally, WP6 deals with dissemination and exploitation, is devotedfor formulating comprehensive plans for results assimilation by the partners and set the ground for theexploitation. Figure 1 shows the work packages and their relationships.
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34.
  • Ahmadi, Omid, et al. (författare)
  • 3D Seismic Interpretation and Forward Modeling : an approach to providing reliable results from 2D seismic data
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Proceedings of the 12th Biennial Meeting. ; , s. 50-53
  • Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Accurate 3D interpretations is challenging when only 2D seismic reflection data are available. This can be compensated for by using additional data. Here we present two case studies where 2D seismic reflection data have been used in combination with geological/geophysical data to create and verify 3D interpretations of specific structures targeted for scientific deep drilling and mining. In the first case, a surface geological map and high resolution 2D seismic reflection data were used to create a 3D lithological model of the subsurface structures in an area around a scientific deep drilling site. This model was also compared to results from constrained 3D inverse modeling of gravity data. In the second case, seismic forward ray-trace modeling was used to delineate a massive sulfide ore body by using high resolution 2D seismic reflection data. By comparison of the generated synthetic data with the real data, it was found that the top of the ore body was detected.
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35.
  • Ahmadi, Omid, et al. (författare)
  • 3D Seismic Waveform Modeling of an Ore Body within a Stochastic Heterogeneous Medium
  • 2016
  • Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Shallow mineral deposits of giant sizes are rapidly mined out and thus to sustain mining and help the economic growth, there is a tendency to explore deeper deposits. Most economic size mineral deposits are hosted within a complex and heterogeneous medium affected by various stages of deformation and metamorphism. Therefore, to understand their seismic responses, 3D heterogeneous modeling of various scale lengths should be considered. Here we present an algorithm that allows to build a model with various degrees of heterogeneity and structural anisotropy for the medium and use that to study a 6 Mt massive sulfide deposit at about 1 km depth. The seismic response was simulated using a 3D acoustic finite-difference method. Wavefield records through the model show imaging of the ore body in the presence of a high-degree of structural anisotropy/heterogeneity is difficult, but the associated amplitude anomaly appeared as diffraction can be detected within the 3D recorded wavefields and likely possible to be imaged using high-fold seismic data. The recorded wavefield however suggests some asymmetric pattern for the diffraction due to the high-degree of structural anisotropy introduced and hence care must be taken when processing and locating these deposits within highly preferentially-oriented heterogeneous medium.  
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36.
  • Ahmadi, Omid, 1980- (författare)
  • Application of the Seismic Reflection Method in Mineral Exploration and Crustal Imaging : Contributions to Hardrock Seismic Imaging
  • 2015
  • Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • The seismic reflection method has been used extensively in mineral exploration and for imaging crustal structures within hardrock environments. In this research the seismic reflection method has been used and studied to address problems associated with hardrock settings. Papers I and II, address delineating and imaging a sulfide ore body and its surrounding rocks and structures in Garpenberg, central Sweden, at an active mine. 3D ray-tracing and finite-difference modeling were performed and the results suggest that although the detection of the ore body by the seismic reflection method is possible in the area, the presence of backfilled stopes in the mine makes seismic imaging of it difficult. In paper III the deeper structures of the Pärvie fault system in northern Sweden were revealed down to about 8 km through 2D seismic reflection profiling. The resulting images were interpreted using microearthquake data as a constraint. Based on the interpretation, some locations were suggested for future scientific deep drilling into the fault system. In paper IV, the seismic signature of complex geological structures of the Cue-Weld Range area in Western Australia was studied using a portion of a deep 2D seismic reflection profile. The pronounced reflections on the seismic images were correlated to their corresponding rock units on an available surface geological map of the study area. 3D constant velocity ray-tracing was performed to constrain the interpretation. Furthermore, the proposed structural model was tested using a 2D acoustic finite-difference seismic modeling method. Based on this study, a new 3D structural model was proposed for the subsurface of the area. These studies have investigated the capability of the seismic reflection method for imaging crustal structures within challenging hardrock and complex geological settings and show some its potential, but also its limitations.
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37.
  • Ahmadi, Omid, et al. (författare)
  • High-resolution 2D seismic imaging and forward modeling of a polymetallic sulfide deposit at Garpenberg, central Sweden
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Geophysics. - : Society of Exploration Geophysicists. - 0016-8033 .- 1942-2156. ; 78:6, s. B339-B350
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We acquired a high-resolution 2D seismic profile to test the capability of the seismic method in imaging a sulfide ore body at Garpenberg, central Sweden. Delineation of the geologic structures, which surround and host the ore body, is another goal of the survey. Due to the 3D geology of the structures, a cross-dip correction performed to image out-of-the-plane reflections, resulting in a clear high amplitude anomaly at a time and location to that to be expected from near the top of the ore body. Furthermore, DMO processing and migration are applied to the data, providing images of four main reflection groups. The reflections have been interpreted as corresponding to geologic rock units in the area that partly interfere with the potential ore body signal. To further investigate the seismic response of the ore body, forward modeling by ray-tracing is applied using the ore body geometry as mapped by drilling. We use two ray-tracing approaches: standard 3D ray-tracing and an exploding reflector approach. Seven representative samples from the mine area are used to determine P-wave velocities. The measurements show a considerable contrast between the ore body and host rock. By comparing the modeled and observed data, we find that the high amplitude signal in the real seismic section most likely emanates from near the top of one concentrated ore which lies inside the larger mapped ore body that has been modeled as a resource. The base of the ore body is only observed on the synthetic data whereas a signal penetration analysis suggests that the seismic signal penetrated efficiently along the entire survey line. Presence of disseminated ore and lower fold toward the northern end of the profile could be combined reasons that make imaging the base of the ore body difficult.
  •  
38.
  • Ahmadi, Pouya, et al. (författare)
  • Elastic Anisotropy of Deformation Zones : From Lab Measurements to Real Seismic Data, an Example from Eastern Sweden
  • 2013
  • Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Estimation of elastic anisotropy, which is usually caused by rock fabrics and mineral orientation, has animportant role in exploration seismics and better understanding of crustal seismic reflections. If notproperly taken care of during processing steps, it may lead to wrong interpretation or distorted seismicimage. In this paper, a state-of-the-art under development Laser Doppler Interferometer (LDI) device isused to measure anisotropy of rock samples from a major deformation zone in the Bergslagen region ineastern Sweden. Results are then used to correct for the anisotropy effects using a non-hyperbolic moveoutequation. The resulting stacked section shows partial improvement of the deformation zone compared withthe isotropic processing section. This suggests that rock anisotropy may also contribute to generation ofreflections from the deformation zones in the study area but requires further investigations.
  •  
39.
  • Ahmadi, Pouya, et al. (författare)
  • Laser Doppler Interferometry (LDI) to obtain full stiffness tensor: A case study on a deformation zone in Sweden
  • 2015
  • Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Estimation of elastic anisotropy, which is usually caused by rock fabrics and mineral orientations, has an important role in exploration seismology and a better understanding of crustal seismic reflections. If not properly taken care of during data processing steps, it leads to wrong interpretation and/or distorted seismic image. In this work, a state-of-the-art under the development Laser Doppler Interferometer (LDI) device is used to measure phase velocities on the surface of rock samples from a major poly-phase crustal scale deformation zone (Österbybruk Deformation Zone) in the Bergslagen region of eastern Sweden. Then, a general inversion code is deployed to invert the measured phase velocities to obtain full elastic stiffness tensors of two samples from the deformation zone. At the end, results are used to correct for the anisotropy effects using three dimensionless Tsvankin's parameters and a non-hyperbolic moveout equation. The resulting stacked section shows partial reflection improvement of the deformation zone compared with the traditional isotropic processing approach. This illustrates that rock anisotropy contributes to the generation of the reflections from the deformation zones in the study area although they do not show significant density contrast with their surrounding rocks.
  •  
40.
  • Ahmadi, Seyed Alireza, et al. (författare)
  • Towards more efficient building energy management systems
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: Proceedings - 2012 7th International Conference on Knowledge, Information and Creativity Support Systems, KICSS 2012. - : IEEE. - 9780769548616 ; , s. 118-125
  • Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
    • As a first step towards developing efficient building energy management techniques, in this paper, we first study the energy consumption patterns of heating, ventilation and cooling (HVAC) systems across the KTH Royal Institute of Technology campus and we identify some possible areas where energy consumption can be made less wasteful. Later, we describe a test-bed where wireless sensor networks are used to collect data and eventually control the HVAC system in a distributed way. We present some of the data, temperature, humidity, and CO2 measurements, that are collected by the aforementioned network and compare them with the measurements collected by the legacy sensors already in place. In the end we present a preliminary result on modelling the dynamics of the temperature, humidity, and CO2 using the data gather by the sensor network. We check the validity of the model via comparing the out put of the system with measured data. As a future work we identify the possibility of using the models obtained here for model based control, and fault detection and isolation techniques.
  •  
41.
  • Al-Chalabi, Hussan, et al. (författare)
  • Case Study: Model for Economic Lifetime of Drilling Machines in the Swedish Mining Industry
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Engineering Economist. - 0013-791X .- 1547-2701. ; 60:2, s. 138-154
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The purpose of this paper is to develop a practical economic replacement decision model to identify the economic lifetime of a mining drilling machine. A data driven optimisation model was developed for operating and maintenance costs, purchase price and machine resale value. Equivalent present value of these costs by using discount rate was considered. The proposed model shows that the absolute optimal replacement time (ORT) of a drilling machine used in one underground mine in Sweden is 115 months. Sensitivity and regression analysis show that the maintenance cost has the largest impact on the ORT of this machine. The proposed decision making model is applicable and useful and can be implemented within the mining industry.
  •  
42.
  • Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad, et al. (författare)
  • The Burden of Road Traffic Injuries in Iran and 15 Surrounding Countries : 1990-2016
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Archives of Iranian Medicine. - 1029-2977 .- 1735-3947. ; 21:12, s. 556-565
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study provides estimates of deaths, years of life lost (YLL), years of life lived with disability (YLD), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to 249 causes of death, 315 diseases and injuries, and 79 behavioral, environmental, occupational, and metabolic risk factors in 195 countries, territories, and regions by sex and 20 age categories in 195 countries and regions since 1990. In this study, we aimed to present the burden of road traffic injuries (RTIs) in Iran and 15 surrounding countries in 1990-2016.METHODS: The standard Cause of Death Ensemble modeling (CODEm) is used to estimate deaths due to all causes of injury by age, sex, country and year. A range of 27 causes is used for estimating non-fatal health outcomes based on inpatient and outpatient datasets using DisMod-MR 2.0. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) estimate quantify the total burden of years lost due to premature death or disability and was computed by summing the fatal burden and non-fatal burden associated with a cause (i.e., YLL+YLD).RESULTS: In 2016, age-standardized transport injuries in Iran accounted for 35.6 (UI: 29.64-43.44) deaths per 100000 compared to 60.8 (UI: 51.04-72.49) in 1990. Transport injury became the fourth leading cause of death in Iran in 2016, up from the 5th leading cause of death in 1990. The burden of RTIs was mainly caused by motor vehicles and motorcycles and mostly affected the economically productive age groups (15-49), males and children, especially those at school age. Afghanistan with 59.14 deaths (52.09-66.8) and UAE with 53.71 deaths (36.59-72.77) had the largest transport injury death rates per 100000. From 1990 to 2016, Iran had -2.06 annual percent change in transport death rates. The lowest annual percent change is reported for Turkmenistan at -3.43. While Pakistan, UAE and Qatar had the highest annual percent change in transport injury. Across all countries, the observed-to-expected ratios for transport injury death rates varied considerably in 2016.The UAE had the largest age-standardized ratios of observed-to-expected rate (2.93), followed by Oman (2.39), Saudi Arabia (2.23), Afghanistan (2.04) and Iran (1.95).CONCLUSIONS: RTIs continue to be a public health burden in Iran and its neighboring countries, even though, there is evidence for decline in RTIs across all countries except Pakistan. The most frequent sub-causes of death and injury are the motor vehicle, motorcycle, and pedestrian injuries. The most vulnerable road users are children and young adults.
  •  
43.
  • Beckel, Ruth, et al. (författare)
  • Imaging and Characterization of Glacially Induced Faults Using Applied Geophysics
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Glacially-Triggered Faulting. - Cambridge : Cambridge University Press. - 9781108779906 - 9781108490023 ; , s. 118-132
  • Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Geophysical methods have the potential to delineate and map the geometry of glacially induced faults (GIFs) in the hard rock environment of the Baltic Shield. Relevant geophysical methods include seismic, geoelectric, electromagnetic, magnetic and gravity ones. However, seismic methods have the greatest potential for determining the geometry at depth due to their higher resolving power. Seismic methods have even been used to identify a previously unknown GIF within the Pärvie Fault system. The other geophysical methods are usually employed to image the near-surface structure of GIFs. We provide a brief review of geophysical principles and how they apply to imaging of GIFs in the hard rock environment. The advantages and challenges associated with various geophysical methods are discussed through several case histories. Results to date show that it is possible to map GIFs dipping at 35–65° from the near-surface down to depths of 7–8 km. It is not clear if the limiting factor in their mapping at depth is the nature of the faults or the limitations in the seismic acquisition parameters since the mapping capacity is highly dependent upon the acquisition geometry and source type used.
  •  
44.
  • Block, Jan, et al. (författare)
  • Fleet-Level Reliability Analysis of Repairable Units: A Non-Parametric Approach using the Mean Cumulative Function
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Performability Engineering. - 0973-1318. ; 9:3, s. 333-344
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Complex technical systems are normally repaired rather than replaced when they fail. It is often desirable to analyze the reliability characteristics of these systems based on data generated in a customer use environment, in order to assess the reliability, frequency of failure or other parameters which may be influenced by the systems’ age and usage. Despite the advantages of continuously analyzing reliability data to be able to improve the maintenance programme continuously, methods such as parametric and non-parametric analysis are often ignored due to a belief that the mean time between failures (MTBF) is sufficient to describe the reliability pattern of repairable units. This paper describes the use of the mean cumulative function (MCF) and linear estimates based on the recurrence rate to predict the expected number of failures in the future. Reliability data from two repairable units are used to verify the procedure and comparison. The empirical data used in the paper is based on field data gathered during the operational life of the Swedish military aircraft system FPL 37 Viggen from 1977 to 2006, which essentially is the whole life cycle of the system.
  •  
45.
  • Block, Jan, et al. (författare)
  • Fleet-level Reliability of Multiple Repairable Units: a Parametric Approach using the Power Law Process
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Performability Engineering. - 0973-1318. ; 10:3, s. 239-250
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The application of parametric reliability analysis methods for repairable units, such as Power law process, is quite clear and straightforward for a single repairable unit. However, in practice, the analyst needs to know the reliability characteristics of units at a fleet level. The application of parametric reliability analysis methods at the fleet level, even if it is limited in scope, is quite complex. The aim of this paper is to describe the use of the power law process for multiple repairable units with differing reliability characteristics, to predict the expected number of failures at fleet level. The empirical data used in the paper are based on field data gathered during the operational life of two types of multi repairable units used in the Swedish military aircraft system FPL 37 Viggen from 1977 to 2006. The paper performs the trend test using TTT-based MIL-HDBK-189 and Laplace tests, and assesses the equality of shape-parameters for the intensity function of the power law process for multiple units. Estimation of the scale- and shape-parameters using maximum likelihood estimation is also performed. The parametric approach using power law process was found to yield relatively accurate estimations of number of failures, compared to empirical data
  •  
46.
  • Block, Jan, 1973- (författare)
  • Part-out Based Spares Provisioning and Management : A Study for Aircraft Retirement
  • 2017
  • Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • The operation and maintenance phase of a complex technical system may deal with strategicdecisions for asset retirement and end-of-life management. When a fleet of aircraft reachesthe retirement phase, the operation of remaining fleet should still be kept at a defined level ofavailability. Obviously, the provisioning of spares is a key issue to support the maintenanceand operation of the remaining fleet. The best practice within the aviation industry is to re-usethe spares of retired aircraft to support the operational fleet. This is referred to parting-out.The purpose of the research conducted for this thesis has been to develop decision supportmethodologies, models and tools for the management of a sustainable part-out-based sparesprovisioning for an aircraft fleet during its retirement period. The proposed methodology willbe used to support the retirement process of aircraft fleet and enhance the organisation’scapability of making efficient and cost-effective decisions concerning the re-use of spare partsduring the retirement period. To achieve the purpose of this research, literature studies, casestudies, algorithm development and simulations have been conducted. Empirical data havebeen collected through document studies, interviews, and the perusal of archival records fromSaab Support and Services AB. The data analysis performed for this research has been basedon theories and methodologies within reliability analysis, cost modelling, spares forecasting,stock provisioning and decision making, in combination with the best practices implementedby the aviation industry for the end-of-life management and retirement of aircraft.In the present thesis, part-out-based spares provisioning (PBSP) program is proposed to utiliseretired aircraft units effectively as spare parts. The proposed approach is illustrated andverified through a case study performed on the “Saab-105” military aircraft fleet withinSwedish air force fleet. A PBSP programme is proposed, associated management activitiesare described, the key decision criteria are presented, and a functional framework for aneffective PBSP is suggested. The proposed PBSP program provides a foundation for furthermeasures and tasks to be performed within the retirement period, such as terminatingmaintenance contracts, discarding internal maintenance capabilities, reviewing stocks, scalingdown administrative processes (e.g. spares procurement and obsolescence monitoring), etc.An important part of the PBSP programme is the reliability analysis of multiple repairableunits, and this has been investigated, using parametric and non-parametric reliabilityapproaches. The aim is to identify a practical approach for estimation of the future sparedemand at fleet level. Furthermore, a set of computational models and search algorithm havebeen developed for the identification of applicable termination times, of both the parting-outprocess and the maintenance and repair actions performed on the units. This includestermination of the parting-out process (PO), the sending of parted-out units directly to storage(POS), and repair actions performed on the units received at the repair shops owing tocorrective (CM) and preventive (PM) maintenance, as well as the parted-out units that need tobe repaired (POM). The feasible termination alternatives are compared with regard to theirrespective costs and the most cost-effective solutions are identified.The results of the research study show that a PBSP programme can yield large reductions inmaintenance and spares procurement costs, while supporting operation of existing fleet athighest required availability. It also contributes positively to implement a green supply chainduring the retirement phase. The methodology and approaches introduced within the thesiscan be applied in other civil applications, such as energy, mining, process industry andtransportation sectors.
  •  
47.
  • Block, Jan, et al. (författare)
  • Part-out-based spares provisioning management : A military aviation maintenance case study
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Journal of Quality in Maintenance Engineering. - 1355-2511 .- 1758-7832. ; 20:1, s. 76-95
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present the prerequisites for a part-out-based spares provisioning (PBSP) programme during the phase-out of an aircraft fleet. Furthermore, associated key decision criteria are identified and a framework for the phase-out management process is presented. Design/methodology/approach – Once a decision has been taken to phase-out an aircraft fleet, a number of routines for operations, maintenance and storage are affected and new tasks and functions must be introduced before initiating the actual parting-out process. A decision-making system and a management framework is needed to manage spares planning during the end-of-life phase to ensure availability at minimum cost and to ensure a manageable risk of backorders. Findings – For PBSP programme during the phase-out of an aircraft fleet to succeed and be cost-effective, a number of linked processes, tasks and decisions are required, e.g., those included in the framework proposed in this paper (see Figure 3). A successful implementation of PBSP also requires that these processes and tasks are carried out in a timely manner and that the communications between the concerned parties are prompt, clear and direct. One experience from the studied case is that close and trustful contacts and cooperation between the operator and maintenance provider(s) will greatly facilitate the process. Originality/value – Although the PBSP method is fairly commonly applied within both the military and the civilian sector, somewhat surprisingly very literature has been published on the subject. Indeed, remarkably little has been published on any aspects of maintenance during the end-of-life period.
  •  
48.
  • Block, Jan, et al. (författare)
  • Spares Provisioning Strategy for Periodically Replaced Units within the Fleet Retirement Period
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Systems Assurance Engineering and Management. - : Springer. - 0975-6809 .- 0976-4348. ; 10:3, s. 299-315
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Within aviation enterprises, the process of dismantling an aircraft at the end of its life is referred to as parting-out. Obviously, the asset value of the units and materials parted out from the retired airframes can be considerable. The benchmarked best practice within the aviation industry is to dismantle the retired aircraft and use the parted-out spares to support the remaining fleet or to offer them on the surplus market. Part-out-based spares provisioning (PBSP) has been a major focus of attention for aviation companies. The PBSP approach is a complex task that requires a multidisciplinary and integrated decision-making process. In order to control the stock level and fulfil the decision criteria within PBSP, it is necessary to make decisions on the termination, at specific times, of both the parting-out process and the maintenance and repair actions performed on the units.This paper considers repairable units and introduces a computational model to identify the applicable alternatives for repair termination times that will minimize the number of remaining spares at the end of the retirement period, while fulfilling the availability requirement for spares during the PBSP period, at the lowest possible cost.  The feasible alternatives are compared with regard to their respective costs, and the most cost-effective solution is selected. The cost model uses estimates of future maintenance requirements, the turn-around times, the cost of the various maintenance tasks, the future spares consumption, and the estimated salvage of spares from retired aircraft. The output of the model is a set of applicable alternatives which satisfy the availability requirements for spares for the active fleet. The method is illustrated using a case study performed on the Saab-105 training aircraft. The results show that the proposed PBSP approach and computational model provide added value from a sustainability point of view, since the use of existing resources is maximized during the retirement process, through the process of reclaiming units and the applicable maintenance termination alternatives. The implementation of the proposed computational model in a PBSP programme provides a detailed and situation-based overview of the stock level dynamics, and contributes to the spares provisioning process by providing solutions to issues such as obsolescence, last-time buys and cannibalization.
  •  
49.
  • Block, Jan, et al. (författare)
  • Using Monte Carlo simulation as support for decision making while negotiating a PBL contract
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: IEEE Aerospace Conference. Proceedings. - 1095-323X.
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • In connection with performance-based logistics (PBL) contracts for aircraft fleets it is very important to carefully analyse both operations and maintenance before and during the contract negotiation phase. Monte Carlo Simulation is a valuable methodology in this context since it allows delimiting and exploring a complex parameter space in a transparent and relatively easily visualized manner. With timely analyses it is possible to identify both technical and economic risks and minimize the possible consequences, a process that benefits both parties in the negotiation process. This paper describes a part of this process in connection with the negotiation of a PBL contract for the Swedish Air Force SAAB 105 (SK 60) trainer fleet between Saab AB and the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration (FMV). The information used in the simulations was largely empirical data derived from previous operations of the aircraft system. The main factors that were simulated were operational requirements, fleet size, spares inventories, turn-around times, failure rates and influence of extraneous factors (e. g. weather). The simulations resulted in considerable savings due to reduction of the active fleet size, and increased reclamation of surplus spares and units from retired aircraft.
  •  
50.
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