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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Aleklett, Kjell
(författare)
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International Energy Agency accepts Peak Oil : An analysis of Chapter 3 of the World Energy Outlook 2004
- 2004
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Rapport (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- In the Summary, the IEA states: “Production of conventional oil will not peak before 2030 if the necessary investments are made”. But we find in Chapter 3 that a peak on this date is premised on the USGS Mean estimate of 2626 Gb (billion barrels) for remaining conventional oil (IEA include NGL, Natural Gas Liquid, in conventional oil), adding that if this estimate should prove too high, the peak of production would come by 2015 or before . It is very important to note that the IEA now accepts the notion that there is a peak in oil production, even if there is uncertainty as to the date. The range is from 2015 to 2033, coming even sooner if all the assumptions are not fulfilled. It follows that Governments are now on notice that they must make energy plans for the future that accept peak oil as a reality. That will be a departure from past practice.
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| 7. |
- Aleklett, Kjell
(författare)
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Maximum results with minimum resources
- 2014
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Ingår i: Abstracts of Papers of the American Chemical Society. - 0065-7727. ; 247
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Aleklett, Kjell, et al.
(författare)
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The Peak of the Oil Age : Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008
- 2010
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Ingår i: Energy Policy. - Oxford : Elsevier Ltd. - 0301-4215 .- 1873-6777. ; 38:3, s. 1398-1414
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The assessment of future global oil production presented in the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2008 (WEO 2008) is divided in to 6 fractions; four relate to crude oil, one to non-conventional oil, and the final fraction is natural-gas-liquids (NGL). Using the production parameter, depletion-rate-of-recoverable- resources, we have analyzed the four crude oil fractions and found that the 75 Mb/d of crude oil production forecast for year 2030 appears significantly overstated, and is more likely to be in the region of 55 Mb/d. Moreover, an alysis of the other fractions strongly suggests lower than expected production levels. In total, our analysis points to a world oil supply in 2030 of 75Mb/d, some 26 Mb/d lower than the IEA predicts. The connection between economic growth and energy use is fundamental in the IEA’s present modeling approach. Since our forecast sees little chance of a significant increase in global oil production, our findings suggest that the ‘‘policy makers, investors and end users’’ to whom WEO 2008 is addressed should rethink their future plans for economic growth. The fact that global oil production has very probably passed its maximum implies that we have reached the Peak of the Oil Age.
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| 11. |
- Aleklett, Kjell
(författare)
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Tänk om det säger "slurp" i oljeröret
- 2004
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Ingår i: Brännpunkt. ; 2 maj 2004
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Tidskriftsartikel (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- Shell har nu skrivit ner sina oljereserver med 20 procent, men i Oman i Mellanöstern med 40 procent. Nedskrivningarna i Oman är till volymen inte de största men på sikt för världen kanske de allvarligaste.Det rör sig om överdrivna förväntningar på ny avancerad utvinningsteknik, horisontell borrning, den teknik som många hoppas ska vara avgörande för en ökad global oljeproduktion
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| 12. |
- Aleklett, Kjell
(författare)
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Uninvited observations
- 2008
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Ingår i: Oil & gas journal. - 0030-1388 .- 1944-9151. ; 106:9, s. 12-13
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 13. |
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| 14. |
- Davidsson, Simon, 1986-
(författare)
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Global energy transitions : Renewable energy technology and non-renewable resources
- 2015
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The global energy system is dominated by the use of fossil fuels. This system suffers from several problems, such as different environmental issues, while the long-term energy security is sometimes questioned. As an alternative to this situation, a transition to a global energy system based on renewable energy technologies, to a large extent solar and wind energy, is commonly proposed. Constructing the technology needed for such a transition requires resources and how fast this could happen is somewhat disputed. This thesis explores methods to assess the potential constraints for realizing such a transition by looking at potential technology growth rates and outlooks of production of the required natural resources.The thesis is based on three papers presenting case studies that look at growth rates of wind energy as well as future production outlooks of lithium and phosphate rock. Using different types of growth patterns reaching proposed installed capacities of wind power, annual commissioning requirements are investigated, taking account for the limited life expectancy oftechnology. Potential outlooks of mineral production are explored using resource constrained curve-fitting models on global lithium production. A more disaggregated model looking at individual countries are used on phosphate rock production to investigate new perspectives on production outlooks.It is concluded that the growth rates of individual energy technologies affect the resource requirements and prospective constraints on energy transitions. Resource constrained modelling of resource production can provide spans of potential outlooks for future production of resources required for anenergy transition. A higher disaggregation of the modelling can provide new perspectives of potential constraints on future production. These aspects should be further investigated when proposing alternative future energy systems.
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| 15. |
- Guo, Keqiang, et al.
(författare)
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Production Patterns of Eagle Ford Shale Gas : Decline Curve Analysis Using 1084 Wells
- 2016
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Ingår i: SUSTAINABILITY. - : MDPI AG. - 2071-1050. ; 8:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper analyzes and quantifies characteristic production behavior using historical data from 1084 shale gas wells in the Eagle Ford shale play from 2010 to 2014. Decline curve analysis, using Hyperbolic and Stretched Exponential models, are used to derive average decline rates and other characteristic parameters for shale gas wells. Both Hyperbolic and Stretched Exponential models fit well to aggregated and individual well production data. The hyperbolic model is found to perform slightly better than the Stretched Exponential model in this study. In the Eagle Ford shale play, about 77% of wells reach the peak production of 1644-4932 mil cubic feet per day; the production decline rate of the first year is around 70%, and over the first two years it is around 80%; shale gas wells were estimated to yield estimated ultimate recoverable total resources of 1.41-2.03 billion cubic feet ( 20 years as life span), which is in line with other studies.
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| 16. |
- Höök, Mikael, 1982-, et al.
(författare)
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A decline rate study of Norwegian oil production
- 2008
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Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4215 .- 1873-6777. ; 36:11, s. 4262-4271
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Norway has been a very important oil exporter for the world and an important supplier for Europe. Oil was first discovered in the North Sea in late 1960s and the rapid expansion of Norwegian oil production lead to the low oil prices in the beginning of the 1990s. In 2001 Norway reached its peak production and began to decline. The Norwegian oil production can be broken up into four subclasses; giant oil fields, smaller oil fields, natural gas liquids and condensate. The production of each subclass was analyzed to find typical behaviour and decline rates. The typical decline rates of giant oil fields were found to be -13% annually. The other subclasses decline equally fast or even faster, especially condensate with typical decline rates of -40% annually. The conclusion from the forecast is that Norway will have dramatically reduced export volume of oil by 2030.
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| 17. |
- Höök, Mikael, 1982-, et al.
(författare)
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A supply-driven forecast for the future global coal production
- 2008
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Several countries have already reached a maximum of coal production and are in decline, for instance Germany, The UK and Japan. A vast majority of the world’s coal reserves are located within six countries, the Big Six, which control around 85% of the world’s coal. None of these countries has yet reached maximum coal production and when they do they will consequently have a large impact on the global coal production. The global coal production is forecasted by using a logistic growth model and experience from historical reserve and resource assessments. A maximum production will be reached by 2030. Comparisons are made with other forecasts and the emission scenarios for climate change.
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| 18. |
- Höök, Mikael, 1982-, et al.
(författare)
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A review on coal to liquid fuels and its coal consumption
- 2010
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Ingår i: International Journal of Energy Research. - : Hindawi Limited. - 0363-907X .- 1099-114X. ; 34:10, s. 848-864
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Continued reliance on oil is unsustainable and this has resulted in interest in alternative fuels. Coal-to-Liquids (CTL) can supply liquid fuels and have been successfully used in several cases, particularly in South Africa. This article reviews CTL theory and technology. Understanding the fundamental aspects of coal liquefaction technologies are vital for planning and policy-making, as future CTL systems will be integrated in a much larger global energy and fuel utilization system. Conversion ratios for CTL are generally estimated to be between 1-2 barrels/ton coal. This puts a strict limitation on future CTL capacity imposed by future coal production volumes, regardless of other factors such as economics, emissions or environmental concern. Assuming that 10% of world coal production can be diverted to CTL, the contribution to liquid fuel supply will be limited to only a few Mb/d. This prevents CTL from becoming a viable mitigation plan for liquid fuel shortage on a global scale. However, it is still possible for individual nations to derive significant shares of their fuel supply from CTL, but those nations must also have access to equally significant coal production capacities. It is unrealistic to claim that CTL provides a feasible solution to liquid fuels shortages created by peak oil. For the most part, it can only be a minor contributor and must be combined with other strategies.
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| 19. |
- Höök, Mikael, 1982-
(författare)
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Coal and Oil: The Dark Monarchs of Global Energy : Understanding Supply and Extraction Patterns and their Importance for Future Production
- 2010
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The formation of modern society has been dominated by coal and oil, and together these two fossil fuels account for nearly two thirds of all primary energy used by mankind. This makes future production a key question for future social development and this thesis attempts to answer whether it is possible to rely on an assumption of ever increasing production of coal and oil. Both coal and oil are finite resources, created over long time scales by geological processes. It is thus impossible to extract more fossil fuels than geologically available. In other words, there are limits to growth imposed by nature. The concept of depletion and exhaustion of recoverable resources is a fundamental question for the future extraction of coal and oil. Historical experience shows that peaking is a well established phenomenon in production of various natural resources. Coal and oil are no exceptions, and historical data shows that easily exploitable resources are exhausted while more challenging deposits are left for the future. For oil, depletion can also be tied directly to the physical laws governing fluid flows in reservoirs. Understanding and predicting behaviour of individual fields, in particularly giant fields, are essential for understanding future production. Based on comprehensive databases with reserve and production data for hundreds of oilfields, typical patterns were found. Alternatively, depletion can manifest itself indirectly through various mechanisms. This has been studied for coal. Over 60% of the global crude oil production is derived from only around 330 giant oilfields, where many of them are becoming increasingly mature. The annual decline in existing oil production has been determined to be around 6% and it is unrealistic that this will be offset by new field developments, additional discoveries or unconventional oil. This implies that the peak of the oil age is here. For coal a similar picture emerges, where 90% of the global coal production originates from only 6 countries. Some of them, such as the USA show signs of increasing maturity and exhaustion of the recoverable amounts. However, there is a greater uncertainty about the recoverable reserves and coal production may yield a global maximum somewhere between 2030 and 2060. This analysis shows that the global production peaks of both oil and coal can be expected comparatively soon. This has significant consequences for the global energy supply and society, economy and environment. The results of this thesis indicate that these challenges should not be taken lightly.
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| 20. |
- Höök, Mikael, 1982-
(författare)
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Depletion and decline curve analysis in crude oil production
- 2009
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Oil is the black blood that runs through the veins of the modern global energy system. While being the dominant source of energy, oil has also brought wealth and power to the western world. Future supply for oil is unsure or even expected to decrease due to limitations imposed by peak oil. Energy is fundamental to all parts of society. The enormous growth and development of society in the last two-hundred years has been driven by rapid increase in the extraction of fossil fuels. In the foresee-able future, the majority of energy will still come from fossil fuels. Consequently, reliable methods for forecasting their production, especially crude oil, are crucial. Forecasting crude oil production can be done in many different ways, but in order to provide realistic outlooks, one must be mindful of the physical laws that affect extraction of hydrocarbons from a reser-voir. Decline curve analysis is a long established tool for developing future outlooks for oil production from an individual well or an entire oilfield. Depletion has a fundamental role in the extraction of finite resources and is one of the driving mechanisms for oil flows within a reservoir. Depletion rate also can be connected to decline curves. Consequently, depletion analysis is a useful tool for analysis and forecasting crude oil production. Based on comprehensive databases with reserve and production data for hundreds of oil fields, it has been possible to identify typical behaviours and properties. Using a combination of depletion and decline rate analysis gives a better tool for describing future oil production on a field-by-field level. Reliable and reasonable forecasts are essential for planning and nec-essary in order to understand likely future world oil production.
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| 21. |
- Höök, Mikael, 1982-, et al.
(författare)
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Development journey and outlook of Chinese giant oilfields
- 2010
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Ingår i: Petroleum Exploration and Development. - : Elsevier. - 1876-3804. ; 37:2, s. 237-249
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Over 70% of China’s domestic oil production is obtained from nine giant oilfields. Understanding the behaviour of these fields is essential to both domestic oil production and future Chinese oil imports. This study utilizes decline curves and depletion rate analysis to create some future production outlooks for the Chinese giants. Based on our study, we can only conclude that China’s future domestic oil production faces a significant challenge caused by maturing and declining giant fields. Evidence also indicates that the extensive use of water flooding and enhanced oil recovery methods may be masking increasing scarcity and may result in even steeper future decline rates than the ones currently being seen. Our results suggest that a considerable drop in oil production from the Chinese giants can be expected over the next decades.
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| 22. |
- Höök, Mikael, 1982-, et al.
(författare)
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Future Danish oil and gas export
- 2009
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Ingår i: Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0360-5442 .- 1873-6785. ; 34:11, s. 1826-1834
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Denmark possesses only a small share of the exploitation rights to North Sea oil and is a minor producer when compared to Norway and the UK. However, Denmark is still an oil exporter and a very important supplier of oil for certain countries, in particular Sweden. A field-by-field analysis of the Danish oil and gas fields, combined with estimated production contribution from new field developments, enhanced oil recovery and undiscovered fields, provides a future production outlook. The conclusion from this analysis is that by 2030 Denmark will no longer be an oil or gas exporter at all. Our results are also in agreement with the Danish Energy Authority’s own forecast, and may be seen as an independent confirmation of their general statements. Decreasing Danish oil production, coupled with a rapid decline in Norway’s oil output, will force Sweden to import oil from more distant markets in the future, dramatically reducing Swedish energy security. If no new gas suppliers are introduced to the Swedish grid, then Swedish gas consumption is clearly predestined to crumble alongside declining Danish production. Future hydrocarbon production from Denmark displays a clear link to Sweden’s future energy security.
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| 23. |
- Höök, Mikael, 1982-, et al.
(författare)
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Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production
- 2009
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Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4215 .- 1873-6777. ; 37:6, s. 2262-2272
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The most important contributors to the world's total oil production are the giant oil fields. Using a comprehensive database of giant oil field production, the average decline rates of the world's giant oil fields are estimated. Separating subclasses was necessary, since there are large differences between land and offshore fields, as well as between non-OPEC and OPEC fields. The evolution of decline rates over past decades includes the impact of new technologies and production techniques and clearly shows that the average decline rate for individual giant fields is increasing with time. These factors have significant implications for the future, since the most important world oil production base - giant fields - will decline more rapidly in the future, according to our findings. Our conclusion is that the world faces an increasing oil supply challenge, as the decline in existing production is not only high now but will be increasing in the future.
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| 24. |
- Höök, Mikael, 1982-, et al.
(författare)
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Global coal production outlooks based on a logistic model
- 2010
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Ingår i: Fuel. - : Elsevier BV. - 0016-2361 .- 1873-7153. ; 89:11, s. 3546-3558
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A small number of nations control the vast majority of the world’s coal reserves. The geologically available amounts of coal are vast, but geological availability is not enough to ensure future production since economics and restrictions also play an important role. Historical trends in reserve and resource assessments can provide some insight about future coal supply and provide reasonable limits for modelling. This study uses a logistic model to create long-term outlooks for global coal production. A global peak in coal production can be expected between 2020 and 2050, depending on estimates of recoverable volumes. This is also compared with other forecasts. The overall conclusion is that the global coal production could reach a maximum level much sooner than most observers expect.
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| 25. |
- Höök, Mikael, 1982-, et al.
(författare)
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Historical trends in American coal production and a possible future outlook
- 2009
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Ingår i: International Journal of Coal Geology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0166-5162 .- 1872-7840. ; 78:3, s. 201-216
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The United States has a vast supply of coal, with almost 30% of world reserves and more than 1600 Gt (short) as remaining coal resources. The US is also the world’s second largest coal producer after China and annually produces more than twice as much coal as India, the third largest producer. The reserves are concentrated in a few states, giving them a major influence on future production. Historically many states have also shown a dramatic reduction in recoverable coal volumes and this has been closely investigated. Current recoverable estimates may also be too high, especially if further restrictions are imposed. The average calorific value of US coals has decreased from 29.2 MJ/kg in 1950 to 23.6 MJ/kg in 2007 as U.S. production moved to subbituminous western coals. This has also been examined in more detail. This study also uses established analysis methods from oil and gas production forecasting, such as Hubbert linearization and logistic curves, to create some possible future outlooks for U.S. coal production. In one case, the production stabilizes at 1400 Mt annually and remains there until the end of the century, provided that Montana dramatically increases coal output. The second case, which ignores mining restrictions, forecasts a maximum production of 2500 Mt annually by the end of the century.
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| 26. |
- Höök, Mikael, 1982-, et al.
(författare)
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The evolution of giant oil field production behaviour
- 2009
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Ingår i: Natural Resources Research. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1520-7439 .- 1573-8981. ; 18:1, s. 39-56
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The giant oil fields of the world are only a small fraction of the total number of fields, but their importance is huge. Over 50% of the world oil production came from giants by 2005 and more than haft of the worlds ultimate reserves are found in giants. Based on this it is reasonable to assume that the future development of the giant oil fields will have a significant impact on the world oil supply. In order to better understand the giant fields and their future behaviour one must first understand their history. This study has used a comprehensive database on giant oil fields in order to determine their typical parameters, such as the average decline rate and life-times of giants. The evolution of giant oil field behaviour has been investigated to better understand future behaviour. One conclusion is that new technology and production methods have generally lead to high depletion rate and rapid decline. The historical trend points towards high decline rates of fields currently on plateau production. The peak production generally occurs before half the ultimate reserves have been produced in giant oil fields. A strong correlation between depletion-at-peak and average decline rate is also found, verifying that high depletion rate leads to rapid decline. Our result also implies that depletion analysis can be used to rule out unrealistic production expectations from a known reserve, or to connect an estimated production level to a needed reserve base.
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| 27. |
- Höök, Mikael, 1982-, et al.
(författare)
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Trends in U.S. recoverable coal supply estimates and future production outlooks
- 2009
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Ingår i: Twenty Sixth Annual International Pittsburgh Coal Conference. - Pittsburgh : University of Pittsburgh.
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The geological coal resource of the U.S. is abundant and proved coal reserves are listed as the world’s largest. However, the reserves are unevenly distributed and located in a small number of states, giving them major influence over future production. A long history of coal mining provides detailed time series of production and reserve estimates, which can be used to identify historical trends. Compilation of data from United States Geological Survey, Energy Information Administration, U.S. Bureau of Mines and others reveal how the recoverable volumes have been decreased since before the 1950s. The exact cause of this reduction is probably a multitude of factors, including depletion, changes in economic conditions, land-use restrictions, environmental protection and social acceptance. In reviewing the historical evolution of coal reserves, one can state that the trend here does not point towards any major increases in available recoverable reserves; rather the opposite is true due to restrictions and increased focus on environmental impacts from coal extraction. The development of new even stricter regulations and environmental laws is also a reasonable assumption and this will further limit the amount of recoverable coal. Future coal production will not be entirely determined by what is geologically available, but rather by the fraction of that amount that is practically recoverable. Consequently, the historical trend towards reduced recoverable amounts is likely to continue into the future, with even stricter regulations imposed by increased environmental concern. Long-term outlooks can be created in many ways, but ultimately the production must be limited by recoverable volumes since coal is a finite resource. Various models, such as the logistic, Hubbert or Gompertz curves, can be used to provide reasonable long-term outlooks for future production. However, such long-term life-cycle projections should not be used as a substitute for meticulous economic studies to forecast perturbations in coal production over the next few years or decades. Based on a logistic model, using the recoverable reserves as an estimate of what is realistically available for production, results in a coal output of around 1400 Mt by 2030 through the rest of the century. The geologic amounts of coal are of much less importance to future production than the practically recoverable volumes. The geological coal supply might be vast, but the important question is how large the share that can be extracted under present restrictions are and how those restrictions will develop in the future. Production limitations might therefore appear much sooner than previously expected.
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| 28. |
- Höök, Mikael, 1982-, et al.
(författare)
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Trends in U.S. recoverable coal supply estimates and future production outlooks
- 2010
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Ingår i: Natural Resources Research. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1520-7439 .- 1573-8981. ; 19:3, s. 189-208
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The geological coal resource of the U.S. is abundant and proved coal reserves are listed as the world’s largest. However, the reserves are unevenly distributed and located in a small number of states, giving them major influence over future production. A long history of coal mining provides detailed time series of production and reserve estimates, which can be used to identify historical trends. In reviewing the historical evolution of coal reserves, one can state that the trend here does not point towards any major increases in available recoverable reserves; rather the opposite is true due to restrictions and increased focus on environmental impacts from coal extraction. Future coal production will not be entirely determined by what is geologically available, but rather by the fraction of that amount that is practically recoverable. Consequently, the historical trend towards reduced recoverable amounts is likely to continue into the future, with even stricter regulations imposed by increased environmental concern. Long-term outlooks can be created in many ways, but ultimately the production must be limited by recoverable volumes since coal is a finite resource. The geologic amounts of coal are of much less importance to future production than the practically recoverable volumes. The geological coal supply might be vast, but the important question is how large the share that can be extracted under present restrictions are and how those restrictions will develop in the future. Production limitations might therefore appear much sooner than previously expected.
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| 29. |
- Höök, Mikael, 1982-, et al.
(författare)
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Validity of the fossil fuel production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios
- 2010
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Ingår i: Natural Resources Research. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1520-7439 .- 1573-8981. ; 19:2, s. 63-81
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Anthropogenic global warming caused by CO2 emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Previous scenarios were withdrawn after exaggerating one or several trends. This study investigates underlying assumptions on resource availability and future production expectations to determine whether exaggerations can be found in the present set of emission scenarios as well. It is found that the SRES unnecessarily takes an overoptimistic stance and that future production expectations are leaning towards spectacular increases from present output levels. In summary, we can only encourage the IPCC to involve more resource experts and natural science in future emission scenarios. The current set, SRES, is biased toward exaggerated resource availability and unrealistic expectations on future production outputs from fossil fuels.
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| 30. |
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| 31. |
- Jakobsson, Kristofer, et al.
(författare)
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Bottom-up modeling of oil production : A review of approaches
- 2014
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Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4215 .- 1873-6777. ; 64, s. 113-123
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Bottom-up models of oil production are continuously being used to guide investments and policymaking. Compared to simpler top-down models, bottom-up models have a number of advantages due to their modularity, flexibility and concreteness. The purposes of this paper is to identify the crucial modeling challenges, compare the different ways in which nine existing models handle them, assess the appropriateness of these models, and point to possibilities of further development. The conclusions are that the high level of detail in bottom-up models is of questionable value for predictive accuracy, but of great value for identifying areas of uncertainty and new research questions. There is a potential for improved qualitative insights through systematic sensitivity analysis. This potential is at present largely unrealized.
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| 32. |
- Jakobsson, Kristofer, et al.
(författare)
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How reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agencies?
- 2009
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Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4215 .- 1873-6777. ; 37:11, s. 4809-4818
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- According to the long term scenarios of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), conventional oil production is expected to grow until at least 2030. EIA has published results from a resource constrained production model which ostensibly supports such a scenario. The model is here described and analyzed in detail. However, it is shown that the model, although sound in principle, has been misapplied due to a confusion of resource categories. A correction of this methodological error reveals that EIA’s scenario requires rather extreme and implausible assumptions regarding future global decline rates. This result puts into question the basis for the conclusion that global "peak oil" would not occur before 2030.
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| 33. |
- Jakobsson, Kristofer, 1982-
(författare)
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Modeling Oil Exploration and Production : Resource-Constrained and Agent-Based Approaches
- 2010
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Energy is essential to the functioning of society, and oil is the single largest commercial energy source. Some analysts have concluded that the peak in oil production is soon about to happen on the global scale, while others disagree. Such incompatible views can persist because the issue of “peak oil” cuts through the established scientific disciplines. The question is: what characterizes the modeling approaches that are available today, and how can they be further developed to improve a trans-disciplinary understanding of oil depletion? The objective of this thesis is to present long-term scenarios of oil production (Paper I) using a resource-constrained model; and an agent-based model of the oil exploration process (Paper II). It is also an objective to assess the strengths, limitations, and future development potentials of resource-constrained modeling, analytical economic modeling, and agent-based modeling. Resource-constrained models are only suitable when the time frame is measured in decades, but they can give a rough indication of which production scenarios are reasonable given the size of the resource. However, the models are comprehensible, transparent and the only feasible long-term forecasting tools at present. It is certainly possible to distinguish between reasonable scenarios, based on historically observed parameter values, and unreasonable scenarios with parameter values obtained through flawed analogy. The economic subfield of optimal depletion theory is founded on the notion of rational economic agents, and there is a causal relation between decisions made at the micro-level and the macro-result. In terms of future improvements, however, the analytical form considerably restricts the versatility of the approach. Agent-based modeling makes it feasible to combine economically motivated agents with a physical environment. An example relating to oil exploration is given in Paper II, where it is shown that the exploratory activities of individual agents can yield a U-shaped exploration cost path. Agent-based modeling appears to have significant potential for future development, but it is still unclear whether it will be the most useful in policy evaluation or more generalized systems research.
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| 34. |
- Jakobsson, Kristofer, et al.
(författare)
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Oil exploration and perceptions of scarcity : The fallacy of early success
- 2012
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Ingår i: Energy Economics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0140-9883 .- 1873-6181. ; 34:4, s. 1226-1233
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- It has been suggested that oil exploration may lead to false perceptions of decreasing scarcity. We perform a simulation of the exploration process using Bayesian updating. The approach enables us to isolate the information effect on the success rate and also to quantify the subjective expectation of the total resource size. The area under exploration consists of a number of regions which may differ in their oil content. Exploration is performed with the goal to maximize the expected success rate. The resulting information about the distribution of oil and the total resource size is assumed public knowledge. A number of scenarios with variations in the dimensions of the area under exploration, the oil distribution and initial beliefs are considered. The results indicate that the information effect on the success rate is significant but brief — it might have a considerable impact on price but is an unlikely mechanism behind a long-term declining price trend. However, the information effect on expectations is gradual and persistent. Since exploration is performed in regions where the expected success rate is the highest, the historical success rate will not be representative of the area as a whole. An explorer will tend to overestimate the total resource size, thereby suggesting an alternative mechanism for false perceptions of decreasing scarcity, a mechanism that could be called the “fallacy of early success”.
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| 35. |
- Jakobsson, Kristofer
(författare)
-
Petroleum Production and Exploration : Approaching the End of Cheap Oil with Bottom-Up Modeling
- 2012
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The theme of this thesis is the depletion of petroleum (crude oil and natural gas). Are there reasons to be concerned about an ‘end of cheap oil’ in the near future? There is a lively debate regarding this issue. The debate is sometimes described as a clash of ‘concerned’ natural scientists and ‘unconcerned’ economists. However, this clash is both harmful and unnecessary. The views of natural scientists and economists can and should be reconciled. At the micro-level, geological and physical factors (such as diminishing reservoir productivity) are parameters in the producer’s economic optimization problem. Bottom-up modeling therefore appears to hold more promise for forming a common understanding of depletion than prevailing top-down models, such as the controversial Hubbert model. The appended papers treat various aspects of petroleum depletion: critical examination of top-down scenarios (I); bottom-up economic and geologic modeling of regional production (II); review of published bottom-up models and sensitivity analysis (III); simulation of success rates and expectations in oil exploration (IV); bottom-up scenarios of future natural gas production in Norway (V) and Russia (VI); empirical analysis of production profiles of giant oil fields (VII). Bottom-up models have the potential to be accepted by scientists from different disciplines, and they enable interpretable sensitivity analyses. They are, however, not likely to reduce quantitative uncertainty in long-term scenarios. There is theoretical evidence of the possibility that petroleum scarcity occurs long before the recoverable resource is close to exhaustion. This result is a consequence of both geological and economical factors. Several arguments for an ‘unconcerned’ view are at best uncertain, and at worst relying on questionable assumptions (analyzing reserves rather than production flows, using irrelevant reserve definitions, using average cost instead of marginal cost). The considerable uncertainty regarding an issue of such importance is in itself a cause for concern.
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| 36. |
- Jakobsson, Kristofer, et al.
(författare)
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The end of cheap oil : Bottom-up economic and geologic modeling of aggregate oil production curves
- 2012
-
Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4215 .- 1873-6777. ; 41, s. 860-870
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- There is a lively debate between 'concerned' and 'unconcerned' analysts regarding the future availability and affordability of oil. We critically examine two interrelated and seemingly plausible arguments for an unconcerned view: (1) there is a growing amount of remaining reserves: (2) there is a large amount of oil with a relatively low average production cost. These statements are unconvincing on both theoretical and empirical grounds. Oil availability is about flows rather than stocks, and average cost is not relevant in the determination of price and output. We subsequently implement a bottom-up model of regional oil production with micro-foundations in both natural science and economics. An oil producer optimizes net present value under the constraints of reservoir dynamics, technological capacity and economic circumstances. Optimal production profiles for different reservoir drives and economic scenarios are derived. The field model is then combined with a discovery model of random sampling from a lognormal field size-frequency distribution. Regional discovery and production scenarios are generated. Our approach does not rely on the simple assumptions of top-down models such as the Hubbert curve - however it leads to the same qualitative result that production peaks when a substantial fraction of the recoverable resource remains in-ground.
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| 37. |
- Johansson, Kersti, et al.
(författare)
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Agriculture as Provider of Both Food and Fuel
- 2010
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Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 39:2, s. 91-99
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- A database of global agricultural primary production has been constructed and used to estimate its energy content. The portion of crops available for food and biofuel after postharvest losses was evaluated. The basic conditions for agriculture and plant growth were studied, to ensure sustainable scenarios regarding use of residues. The available energy contents for the world and EU27 was found to be 7,200-9,300 and 430 TWh, respectively, to be compared with food requirements of 7,100 and 530 TWh. Clearly, very little, or nothing, remains for biofuel from agricultural primary crops. However, by using residues and bioorganic waste, it was found that biofuel production could theoretically replace one-fourth of the global consumption of fossil fuels for transport. The expansion potential for global agriculture is limited by availability of land, water, and energy. A future decrease in supply of fossil energy and ongoing land degradation will thus cause difficulties for increased biofuel production from agriculture.
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| 38. |
- Jäderström, Henrik, 1979-
(författare)
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Fragmentation in Proton-Nucleus Reactions from 100 to 1400 MeV
- 2008
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The heaviest fragments, recoils, have been studied in proton and deuteron induced 28Si reactions and proton-20Ne reactions at 100-300 MeV per nucleon. Inclusive charge and angular distributions and coincidences between He nuclei and recoils have been compared to two theoretical models, Dubna Cascade Model and JAERI Quantum Molecular Dynamics. The overall agreement was good for the reactions with 28Si, however the angular distributions of He fragments could not be reproduced. For the 20Ne reactions the recoil angular distributions were only reproduced for large angles. There was a significant underestimation at small angles and low recoil charge. α-clustering in the bombarding nucleus is a possible explanation for the deviations. In the 100 MeV per nucleon reactions all assumptions of the models may not be valid and the agreement was worst for these reactions. In proton-natXe reactions intermediate mass fragments have been studied from 200 to 1400 MeV. Slow ramping was used to scan the energy. Charge distributions and a caloric curve have been compared to Cascade Fragmentation Evaporation Model. Charge distributions showed good agreement for fragments with Z<8 but the heavier fragments were underestimated.
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| 39. |
- Nygren, Emma, et al.
(författare)
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Aviation fuel and future oil production scenarios
- 2009
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Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4215 .- 1873-6777. ; 37:10, s. 4003-4010
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Most aviation fuels are jet fuels originating from crude oil. Crude oil must be refined to be useful and jet fuel is only one of many products that can be derived from crude oil. Jet fuel is extracted from the middle distillates fraction and competes, for example, with the production of diesel. Crude oil is a limited natural resource subject to depletion and several reports indicate that the world's crude oil production is close to the maximum level and that it will start to decrease after reaching this maximum. A post Kyoto political agenda to reduce oil consumption will have the same effect on aviation fuel production as a natural decline in the crude oil production. On the other hand, it is predicted by the aviation industry that aviation traffic will keep on increasing. The industry has put ambitious goals on increases in fuel efficiency for the aviation fleet. Traffic is predicted to grow by 5% per year to 2026, fuel demand by about 3% per year. At the same time aviation fuel production is predicted to decrease by several per cent each year after the crude oil production peak is reached resulting in a substantial shortage of jet fuel by 2026. The aviation industry will have a hard time replacing this with fuel from other sources, even if air traffic remains at current levels.
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| 40. |
- Robelius, Fredrik, 1973-
(författare)
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Giant Oil Fields - The Highway to Oil : Giant Oil Fields and their Importance for Future Oil Production
- 2007
-
Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Since the 1950s, oil has been the dominant source of energy in the world. The cheap supply of oil has been the engine for economic growth in the western world. Since future oil demand is expected to increase, the question to what extent future production will be available is important. The belief in a soon peak production of oil is fueled by increasing oil prices. However, the reliability of the oil price as a single parameter can be questioned, as earlier times of high prices have occurred without having anything to do with a lack of oil. Instead, giant oil fields, the largest oil fields in the world, can be used as a parameter.A giant oil field contains at least 500 million barrels of recoverable oil. Only 507, or 1 % of the total number of fields, are giants. Their contribution is striking: over 60 % of the 2005 production and about 65 % of the global ultimate recoverable reserve (URR). However, giant fields are something of the past since a majority of the largest giant fields are over 50 years old and the discovery trend of less giant fields with smaller volumes is clear. A large number of the largest giant fields are found in the countries surrounding the Persian Gulf. The domination of giant fields in global oil production confirms a concept where they govern future production. A model, based on past annual production and URR, has been developed to forecast future production from giant fields. The results, in combination with forecasts on new field developments, heavy oil and oil sand, are used to predict future oil production.In all scenarios, peak oil occurs at about the same time as the giant fields peak. The worst-case scenario sees a peak in 2008 and the best-case scenario, following a 1.4 % demand growth, peaks in 2018.
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| 41. |
- Rouki, Chariklia, 1971-
(författare)
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Experimental Studies of the Synthesis and the Survival Probability of Transactinides
- 2004
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In 1999 scientists in Dubna announced the successful synthesis of the nucleus 283112 by the reaction 48Ca+ 238U, with a cross-section of 5.0 pb. The isotope was found to decay by spontaneous fission (t1/2=81 s). Current nuclear theory, supported by the experimental data on 277112, 284112 and 285112, predicts significantly lower production cross-sections and α-emission as the predominant decay mode for isotopes of element 112. The reported properties of 283112 challenge theoretical predictions and raise questions on the subsequent syntheses of the nuclei 287114 and 291116. In order to confirm this discovery, the reaction was repeated under the same conditions, and events similar to the reported ones were searched for. During our first investigation, in 2001, we failed to observe any events to meet the criteria of the 1999 observation. Our second experiment is presented here. The current situation concerning isotope 283112 is discussed.The survival probability of fissionable heavy nuclei is described by the ratio n/f. The ratio can be directly evaluated from measurements of the neutrons emitted before and after fission from the excited compound nucleus and the fission fragments, respectively. An investigation on the survival probabilities of 264Rf and 263Rf against fission is described. The isotopes were produced by the reactions 26Mg+238U and 25Mg+238U and the angular distributions of the emitted neutrons were measured. The average Γn/Γf ratios for the evaporation chains of the two isotopes were examined, and an attempt to evaluate the absolute ratio Γn/Γf of the first-chance fission of 264Rf was made. The results of a similar earlier study on the isotopes 258No and 257No are also presented.
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| 42. |
- Skulski, W, et al.
(författare)
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Origin of slow, heavy residues observed in dissipative Au-197+Kr-86 collisions at E/A=35MeV
- 1996
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Ingår i: PHYSICAL REVIEW C-NUCLEAR PHYSICS. - : AMER INST PHYSICS. - 0556-2813. ; 53:6, s. R2594-R2597
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An exclusive measurement of slow, massive residues from the Au-197 + Kr-86 reaction at E/A = 35 MeV has been performed in coincidence with projectile-like fragments, neutrons, as well as light- and intermediate-mass charged products. The highly efficient
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| 43. |
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| 44. |
- Söderbergh, Bengt, 1975-, et al.
(författare)
-
A crash programme scenario for the Canadian oil sands industry
- 2007
-
Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4215 .- 1873-6777. ; 35:3, s. 1931-1947
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The report Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management, by Robert L. Hirsch et al., concludes that Peak Oil is going to happen and that worldwide large-scale mitigation efforts are necessary to avoid its possible devastating effects for the world economy. These efforts include accelerated production, referred to as crash programme production, from Canada's oil sands. The objective of this article is to investigate and analyse what production levels that might be reasonable to expect from a crash programme for the Canadian oil sands industry, within the time frame 2006-2018 and 2006-2050. The implementation of a crash programme for the Canadian oil sands industry is associated with serious difficulties. There is not a large enough supply of natural gas to support a future Canadian oil sands industry with today's dependence on natural gas. It is possible to use bitumen as fuel and for upgrading, although it seems to be incompatible with Canada's obligations under the Kyoto treaty. For practical long-term high production, Canada must construct nuclear facilities to generate energy for the in situ projects. Even in a very optimistic scenario Canada's oil sands will not prevent Peak Oil. A short-term crash programme from the Canadian oil sands industry achieves about 3.6 mb/d by 2018. A long-term crash programme results in a production of approximately 5 mb/d by 2030.
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| 45. |
- Söderbergh, Bengt, 1975-, et al.
(författare)
-
European energy security : The future of Norwegian natural gas production
- 2009
-
Ingår i: Energy Policy. - Oxford : Elsevier Limited. - 0301-4215 .- 1873-6777. ; 37:12, s. 5037-5055
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The European Union (EU) is expected to meet its future growing demand for natural gas by increased imports. In 2006, Norway had a 21% share of EU gas imports. The Norwegian government has communicated that Norwegian gas production will increase by 25–40% from today’s level of about 99 billion cubic meters (bcm)/year. This article shows that only a 20–25% growth of Norwegian gas production is possible due to production from currently existing recoverable reserves and contingent resources. A high and a low production forecast for Norwegian gas production is presented. Norwegian gas production exported by pipeline peaks between 2015 and 2016, with minimum peak production in 2015 at 118 bcm/year and maximum peak production at 127 bcm/year in 2016. By 2030 the pipeline Export levels are 94–78 bcm. Total Norwegian gas production peaks between 2015 and 2020, with peak production at 124–135 bcm/year. By 2030 the production is 96–115 bcm/year. The results show that there is a limited potential for increased gas exports from Norway to the EU and that Norwegian gas production is declining by 2030 in all scenarios. Annual Norwegian pipeline gas exports to the EU, by 2030, may even be 20 bcm lower than today’s level.
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| 46. |
- Söderbergh, Bengt, 1975-, et al.
(författare)
-
European energy security : An analysis of future Russian natural gas production and exports
- 2010
-
Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4215 .- 1873-6777. ; 38:12, s. 7827-7843
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The widening gap between EU gas production and consumption may require an 87% increase of import volumes between 2006 and 2030, and there are great uncertainties regarding the amounts of gas that can be expected from new suppliers. The potential of increased production from Norway and Algeria is limited, hence, Russia is likely to play a crucial part of meeting the anticipated growing gas demand of the EU. A field-by-field study of 83 giant gas fields shows that the major producing Russian gas fields are in decline, and by 2013 much larger supplies from the Yamal Peninsula and the Shtokman field will be needed in order to avoid a decline in production. Gas from fields in Eastern Siberia and the Far East will mainly be directed to the Asian and Pacific Rim markets, thereby limiting its relevance to the European and CIS markets. As a result, the maximum export increase to the European and CIS markets amounts only to about 45% for the period 2015-2030. The discourse surrounding the EU’s dependence on Russian gas should thus not only be concerned with geopolitics, but also with the issue of resource limitations.
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| 47. |
- Söderbergh, Bengt, 1975-
(författare)
-
Production from Giant Gas Fields in Norway and Russia and Subsequent Implications for European Energy Security
- 2010
-
Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects total natural gas output in the EU to decrease from 216 billion cubic meters per year (bcm/year) in 2006 to 90 bcm/year in 2030. For the same period, EU demand for natural gas is forecast to increase rapidly. In 2006 demand for natural gas in the EU amounted to 532 bcm/year. By 2030, it is expected to reach 680 bcm/year. As a consequence, the widening gap between EU production and consumption requires a 90% increase of import volumes between 2006 and 2030. The main sources of imported gas for the EU are Russia and Norway. Between them they accounted for 62% of the EU’s gas imports in 2006. The objective of this thesis is to assess the potential future levels of gas supplies to the EU from its two main suppliers, Norway and Russia. Scenarios for future natural gas production potential for Norway and Russia have been modeled utilizing a bottom-up approach, building field-by-field, and individual modeling has been made for giant and semi- giant gas fields. In order to forecast the production profile for an individual giant natural gas field a Giant Gas Field Model (GGF-model) has been developed. The GGF-model has also been applied to production from an aggregate of fields, such as production from small fields and undiscovered resources. Energy security in the EU is heavily dependent on gas supplies from a relatively small number of giant gas fields. In Norway almost all production originates from 18 fields of which 9 can be considered as giant fields. In Russia 36 giant fields account for essentially all gas production. There is limited potential for increased gas exports from Norway to the EU, and all of the scenarios investigated show Norwegian gas production in decline by 2030. Norwegian pipeline gas exports to the EU may even be, by 2030, 20 bcm/year lower than today’s level. The maximum increase in exports of Russian gas supplies to the EU amount to only 45% by 2030. In real numbers this means a mere increase of about 70 bcm In addition, there are a number of potential downside factors for future Russian gas supplies to the European markets. Consequently, a 90% increase of import volumes to the EU by 2030 will be impossible to achieve. From a European energy security perspective the dependence of pipeline gas imports is not the only energy security problem to be in the limelight, the question of physical availability of overall gas supplies deserves serious attention as well. There is a lively discussion regarding the geopolitical implications of European dependence on imported gas from Russia. However, the results of this thesis suggest that when assessing the future gas demand of the EU it would be of equal importance to be concerned about diminishing availability of global gas supplies.
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| 48. |
- Wachtmeister, Henrik, et al.
(författare)
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Production Decline Curves of Tight Oil Wells in Eagle Ford Shale
- 2017
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Ingår i: Natural Resources Research. - : SPRINGER. - 1520-7439 .- 1573-8981. ; 26:3, s. 365-377
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study derives typical production curves of tight oil wells based on monthly production data from multiple horizontal Eagle Ford shale oil wells. Well properties initial production (IP) rate and production decline rate were documented, and estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) was calculated using two empirical production decline curve models, the hyperbolic and the stretched exponential function. Individual well productivity, which can be described by IP level, production decline curvature and well lifetime, varies significantly. The average monthly IP was found to be around 500 bbl/day, which yields an EUR in the range of 150-290 kbbl depending on used curve, assumed well lifetime or production cutoff level. More detailed analyses on EUR can be made once longer time series are available. For more realistic modeling of multiple wells a probabilistic approach might be favorable to account for variety in well productivity. For less detailed modeling, for example conceptual regional bottom-up production modeling, the hyperbolic function with deterministic parameters might be preferred because of ease of use, for example with the average parameter values IP = 500 bbl/day, D = 0.3 and b = 1 resulting in an EUR of 250 kbbl with a 30-year well lifetime, however, with the recognition that this extrapolation is uncertain.
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| 49. |
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| 50. |
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