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- Sherratt, K., et al.
(författare)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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| 2. |
- Bernal, Ximena E., et al.
(författare)
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Empowering Latina scientists
- 2019
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 363:6429, s. 825-826
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 3. |
- Brondani, M, et al.
(författare)
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Dental Students' Positive and Negative Views on Aging at an Undergraduate Course at the University of British Columbia, Canada
- 2023
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Ingår i: International journal of dentistry. - : Hindawi Limited. - 1687-8728 .- 1687-8736. ; 2023, s. 8278510-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background. Different views of aging exist, including ageism as the stereotyped idea about older adults in general. The objective of this study was to perform an initial exploration on how third-year undergraduate dental students at the University of British Columbia (UBC), Vancouver, Canada self-perceived themselves at ages 65, 75, or 85 years old. Methods. For a period of 10 years, and using a cross-sectional design, third-year undergraduate dental students were asked to envision themselves at 65, 75, or 85 years old in a brief 150-word written essay. We employed a thematic analysis of the textual data via a coding process as suggested. The main themes were identified and displayed in a table with their respective categories of information. NVivo® 12 (QSR International) software was used for data analysis. Results. Between 2010 and 2020, a total of 519 students enrolled in the UBC undergraduate dental program; 425 essays were collected. Initial coding and thematic analysis led to the identification of four main themes and eight categories; themes included “Ups and Downs,” “Financial Sustainability,” while categories focused on “Trade-offs,” and “Camaraderie,” for example. Different levels of ageism were also apparent when students saw themselves experiencing isolation and forgetfulness regardless of the selected age and the academic year. For other students, they anticipate aging would be healthy, joyful, and productive. Conclusion. Ageism was present when students imagined themselves at three different older ages, but so were more realistic views of an aging. Further studies are warranted to unravel the impact of geriatric education in tackling stereotypes and ageism.
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