| 1. |
- Villa, Luisa L., et al.
(författare)
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Quadrivalent vaccine against human papillomavirus to prevent high-grade cervical lesions
- 2007
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Ingår i: New England Journal of Medicine. - 0028-4793 .- 1533-4406. ; 356:19, s. 1915-1927
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus types 16 (HPV-16) and 18 (HPV-18) cause approximately 70% of cervical cancers worldwide. A phase 3 trial was conducted to evaluate a quadrivalent vaccine against HPV types 6, 11, 16, and 18 (HPV-6/11/16/18) for the prevention of high-grade cervical lesions associated with HPV-16 and HPV-18. METHODS: In this randomized, double-blind trial, we assigned 12,167 women between the ages of 15 and 26 years to receive three doses of either HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccine or placebo, administered at day 1, month 2, and month 6. The primary analysis was performed for a per-protocol susceptible population that included 5305 women in the vaccine group and 5260 in the placebo group who had no virologic evidence of infection with HPV-16 or HPV-18 through 1 month after the third dose (month 7). The primary composite end point was cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or 3, adenocarcinoma in situ, or cervical cancer related to HPV-16 or HPV-18. RESULTS: Subjects were followed for an average of 3 years after receiving the first dose of vaccine or placebo. Vaccine efficacy for the prevention of the primary composite end point was 98% (95.89% confidence interval [CI], 86 to 100) in the per-protocol susceptible population and 44% (95% CI, 26 to 58) in an intention-to-treat population of all women who had undergone randomization (those with or without previous infection). The estimated vaccine efficacy against all high-grade cervical lesions, regardless of causal HPV type, in this intention-to-treat population was 17% (95% CI, 1 to 31). CONCLUSIONS: In young women who had not been previously infected with HPV-16 or HPV-18, those in the vaccine group had a significantly lower occurrence of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia related to HPV-16 or HPV-18 than did those in the placebo group.
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| 2. |
- Smerdon, J. E., et al.
(författare)
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Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era
- 2017
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Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 13:12, s. 1851-1900
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited because of a paucity of modern instrumental observations that are distributed unevenly across the globe and only span parts of the 20th and 21st centuries. Such data coverage is insufficient for characterizing hydroclimate and its associated dynamics because of its multidecadal to centennial variability and highly regionalized spatial signature. High-resolution (seasonal to decadal) hydroclimatic proxies that span all or parts of the Common Era (CE) and paleoclimate simulations from climate models are therefore important tools for augmenting our understanding of hydroclimate variability. In particular, the comparison of the two sources of information is critical for addressing the uncertainties and limitations of both while enriching each of their interpretations. We review the principal proxy data available for hydroclimatic reconstructions over the CE and highlight the contemporary understanding of how these proxies are interpreted as hydroclimate indicators. We also review the available last-millennium simulations from fully coupled climate models and discuss several outstanding challenges associated with simulating hydroclimate variability and change over the CE. A specific review of simulated hydroclimatic changes forced by volcanic events is provided, as is a discussion of expected improvements in estimated radiative forcings, models, and their implementation in the future. Our review of hydroclimatic proxies and last-millennium model simulations is used as the basis for articulating a variety of considerations and best practices for how to perform proxy-model comparisons of CE hydroclimate. This discussion provides a framework for how best to evaluate hydroclimate variability and its associated dynamics using these comparisons and how they can better inform interpretations of both proxy data and model simulations. We subsequently explore means of using proxy-model comparisons to better constrain and characterize future hydroclimate risks. This is explored specifically in the context of several examples that demonstrate how proxy-model comparisons can be used to quantitatively constrain future hydroclimatic risks as estimated from climate model projections.
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| 3. |
- Wolkovich, E. M., et al.
(författare)
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Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change
- 2012
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 485:7399, s. 494-497
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Warming experiments are increasingly relied on to estimate plant responses to global climate change(1,2). For experiments to provide meaningful predictions of future responses, they should reflect the empirical record of responses to temperature variability and recent warming, including advances in the timing of flowering and leafing(3-5). We compared phenology (the timing of recurring life history events) in observational studies and warming experiments spanning four continents and 1,634 plant species using a common measure of temperature sensitivity (change in days per degree Celsius). We show that warming experiments underpredict advances in the timing of flowering and leafing by 8.5-fold and 4.0-fold, respectively, compared with long-term observations. For species that were common to both study types, the experimental results did not match the observational data in sign or magnitude. The observational data also showed that species that flower earliest in the spring have the highest temperature sensitivities, but this trend was not reflected in the experimental data. These significant mismatches seem to be unrelated to the study length or to the degree of manipulated warming in experiments. The discrepancy between experiments and observations, however, could arise from complex interactions among multiple drivers in the observational data, or it could arise from remediable artefacts in the experiments that result in lower irradiance and drier soils, thus dampening the phenological responses to manipulated warming. Our results introduce uncertainty into ecosystem models that are informed solely by experiments and suggest that responses to climate change that are predicted using such models should be re-evaluated.
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| 4. |
- Cook, Benjamin I., et al.
(författare)
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Sensitivity of Spring Phenology to Warming Across Temporal and Spatial Climate Gradients in Two Independent Databases
- 2012
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Ingår i: Ecosystems. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1432-9840 .- 1435-0629. ; 15:8, s. 1283-1294
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Disparate ecological datasets are often organized into databases post hoc and then analyzed and interpreted in ways that may diverge from the purposes of the original data collections. Few studies, however, have attempted to quantify how biases inherent in these data (for example, species richness, replication, climate) affect their suitability for addressing broad scientific questions, especially in under-represented systems (for example, deserts, tropical forests) and wild communities. Here, we quantitatively compare the sensitivity of species first flowering and leafing dates to spring warmth in two phenological databases from the Northern Hemisphere. One-PEP725-has high replication within and across sites, but has low species diversity and spans a limited climate gradient. The other-NECTAR-includes many more species and a wider range of climates, but has fewer sites and low replication of species across sites. PEP725, despite low species diversity and relatively low seasonality, accurately captures the magnitude and seasonality of warming responses at climatically similar NECTAR sites, with most species showing earlier phenological events in response to warming. In NECTAR, the prevalence of temperature responders significantly declines with increasing mean annual temperature, a pattern that cannot be detected across the limited climate gradient spanned by the PEP725 flowering and leafing data. Our results showcase broad areas of agreement between the two databases, despite significant differences in species richness and geographic coverage, while also noting areas where including data across broader climate gradients may provide added value. Such comparisons help to identify gaps in our observations and knowledge base that can be addressed by ongoing monitoring and research efforts. Resolving these issues will be critical for improving predictions in understudied and under-sampled systems outside of the temperature seasonal mid-latitudes.
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| 5. |
- Davies, T. Jonathan, et al.
(författare)
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Phylogenetic conservatism in plant phenology
- 2013
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Ingår i: Journal of Ecology. - : Wiley. - 1365-2745 .- 0022-0477. ; 101:6, s. 1520-1530
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Phenological events - defined points in the life cycle of a plant or animal - have been regarded as highly plastic traits, reflecting flexible responses to various environmental cues. The ability of a species to track, via shifts in phenological events, the abiotic environment through time might dictate its vulnerability to future climate change. Understanding the predictors and drivers of phenological change is therefore critical. Here, we evaluated evidence for phylogenetic conservatism - the tendency for closely related species to share similar ecological and biological attributes - in phenological traits across flowering plants. We aggregated published and unpublished data on timing of first flower and first leaf, encompassing 4000 species at 23 sites across the Northern Hemisphere. We reconstructed the phylogeny for the set of included species, first, using the software program Phylomatic, and second, from DNA data. We then quantified phylogenetic conservatism in plant phenology within and across sites. We show that more closely related species tend to flower and leaf at similar times. By contrasting mean flowering times within and across sites, however, we illustrate that it is not the time of year that is conserved, but rather the phenological responses to a common set of abiotic cues. Our findings suggest that species cannot be treated as statistically independent when modelling phenological responses.Synthesis. Closely related species tend to resemble each other in the timing of their life-history events, a likely product of evolutionarily conserved responses to environmental cues. The search for the underlying drivers of phenology must therefore account for species' shared evolutionary histories.
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| 6. |
- Dillner, Joakim, et al.
(författare)
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Four year efficacy of prophylactic human papillomavirus quadrivalent vaccine against low grade cervical, vulvar, and vaginal intraepithelial neoplasia and anogenital warts: randomised controlled trial.
- 2010
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Ingår i: BMJ: British Medical Journal. - : BMJ. - 1756-1833 .- 0959-8138 .- 1468-5833. ; 341
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the prophylactic efficacy of the human papillomavirus (HPV) quadrivalent vaccine in preventing low grade cervical, vulvar, and vaginal intraepithelial neoplasias and anogenital warts (condyloma acuminata). DESIGN: Data from two international, double blind, placebo controlled, randomised efficacy trials of quadrivalent HPV vaccine (protocol 013 (FUTURE I) and protocol 015 (FUTURE II)). The trials were to be 4 years in length, and the results reported are from final study data of 42 months' follow-up. SETTING: Primary care centres and university or hospital associated health centres in 24 countries and territories around the world. PARTICIPANTS: 17 622 women aged 16-26 years enrolled between December 2001 and May 2003. Major exclusion criteria were lifetime number of sexual partners (>4), history of abnormal cervical smear test results, and pregnancy. INTERVENTION: Three doses of quadrivalent HPV vaccine (for serotypes 6, 11, 16, and 18) or placebo at day 1, month 2, and month 6. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Vaccine efficacy against cervical, vulvar, and vaginal intraepithelial neoplasia grade I and condyloma in a per protocol susceptible population that included subjects who received all three vaccine doses, tested negative for the relevant vaccine HPV types at day 1 and remained negative through month 7, and had no major protocol violations. Intention to treat, generally HPV naive, and unrestricted susceptible populations were also studied. RESULTS: In the per protocol susceptible population, vaccine efficacy against lesions related to the HPV types in the vaccine was 96% for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade I (95% confidence interval 91% to 98%), 100% for both vulvar and vaginal intraepithelial neoplasia grade I (95% CIs 74% to 100%, 64% to 100% respectively), and 99% for condyloma (96% to 100%). Vaccine efficacy against any lesion (regardless of HPV type) in the generally naive population was 30% (17% to 41%), 75% (22% to 94%), and 48% (10% to 71%) for cervical, vulvar, and vaginal intraepithelial neoplasia grade I, respectively, and 83% (74% to 89%) for condyloma. CONCLUSIONS: Quadrivalent HPV vaccine provided sustained protection against low grade lesions attributable to vaccine HPV types (6, 11, 16, and 18) and a substantial reduction in the burden of these diseases through 42 months of follow-up. TRIAL REGISTRATIONS: NCT00092521 and NCT00092534.
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| 7. |
- Muñoz, Nubia, et al.
(författare)
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Impact of Human Papillomavirus (HPV)-6/11/16/18 Vaccine on All HPV-Associated Genital Diseases in Young Women.
- 2010
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Ingår i: Journal of the National Cancer Institute. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1460-2105 .- 0027-8874. ; 102, s. 325-339
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The impact of the prophylactic vaccine against human papillomavirus (HPV) types 6, 11, 16, and 18 (HPV6/11/16/18) on all HPV-associated genital disease was investigated in a population that approximates sexually naive women in that they were "negative to 14 HPV types" and in a mixed population of HPV-exposed and -unexposed women (intention-to-treat group). Methods This analysis studied 17 622 women aged 15-26 years who were enrolled in one of two randomized, placebo-controlled, efficacy trials for the HPV6/11/16/18 vaccine (first patient on December 28, 2001, and studies completed July 31, 2007). Vaccine or placebo was given at day 1, month 2, and month 6. All women underwent cervicovaginal sampling and Papanicolaou (Pap) testing at day 1 and every 6-12 months thereafter. Outcomes were any cervical intraepithelial neoplasia; any external anogenital and vaginal lesions; Pap test abnormalities; and procedures such as colposcopy and definitive therapy. Absolute rates are expressed as women with endpoint per 100 person-years at risk. Results The average follow-up was 3.6 years (maximum of 4.9 years). In the population that was negative to 14 HPV types, vaccination was up to 100% effective in reducing the risk of HPV16/18-related high-grade cervical, vulvar, and vaginal lesions and of HPV6/11-related genital warts. In the intention-to-treat group, vaccination also statistically significantly reduced the risk of any high-grade cervical lesions (19.0% reduction; rate vaccine = 1.43, rate placebo = 1.76, difference = 0.33, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.13 to 0.54), vulvar and vaginal lesions (50.7% reduction; rate vaccine = 0.10, rate placebo = 0.20, difference = 0.10, 95% CI = 0.04 to 0.16), genital warts (62.0% reduction; rate vaccine = 0.44, rate placebo = 1.17, difference = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.58 to 0.87), Pap abnormalities (11.3% reduction; rate vaccine = 10.36, rate placebo = 11.68, difference = 1.32, 95% CI = 0.74 to 1.90), and cervical definitive therapy (23.0% reduction; rate vaccine = 1.97, rate placebo = 2.56, difference = 0.59, 95% CI = 0.35 to 0.83), irrespective of causal HPV type. Conclusions High-coverage HPV vaccination programs among adolescents and young women may result in a rapid reduction of genital warts, cervical cytological abnormalities, and diagnostic and therapeutic procedures. In the longer term, substantial reductions in the rates of cervical, vulvar, and vaginal cancers may follow.
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| 8. |
- Paavonen, J, et al.
(författare)
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Baseline demographic characteristics of subjects enrolled in international quadrivalent HPV (types 6/11/16/18) vaccine clinical trials
- 2008
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Ingår i: Current Medical Research and Opinion. - : Informa Healthcare. - 1473-4877 .- 0300-7995. ; 24:6, s. 1623-1634
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: In Phase II/III trials, administration of quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) (types 6/11/16/18) L1 virus-like-particle vaccine was highly effective in preventing HPV6/11/16/18-related cervical intraepithelial neoplasia and non-invasive cervical cancer in women aged 16-26 years who were naïve to these HPV types at enrollment. However, the makeup and extent of catch-up vaccination programs among young women is unclear, because a proportion of this population will likely already have been exposed to one or more vaccine-HPV-types. OBJECTIVE: Herein we analyze baseline data from the quadrivalent HPV vaccine clinical trial program to investigate variables which may help shape catch-up vaccine implementation policies. METHODS: Female adolescents and young adults aged 16-26 years were randomized into five clinical trials. Baseline data regarding demographics, sexual history, pregnancy history, and other characteristics were collected at enrollment. At the baseline gynecological examination during enrollment, specimens were obtained for Pap testing. Swabs of external genital, lateral vaginal, and cervical sites for HPV polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing were taken, and serum samples were obtained for HPV serology testing. Regional analyses of data were conducted. RESULTS: Overall, 72% of subjects enrolled worldwide were naïve by both serology and PCR to all four vaccine HPV types. Few subjects were seropositive and/or PCR positive for more than two vaccine-related HPV types. Of all subjects with HSIL at enrollment, 78% were positive to at least one vaccine-related HPV type at enrollment. Regional differences in HPV and STD prevalence were evident. Study limitations included under-representation of women with >/=4 sexual partners and possible underestimation of prior HPV exposure. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate that sexually active 16-26 year-old women with
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| 9. |
- Villa, L., et al.
(författare)
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Effect of prophylactic human papillomavirus L1 virus-like-particle vaccine on risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2, grade 3, and adenocarcinoma in situ: a combined analysis of four randomised clinical trials
- 2007
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X. ; 369:9576, s. 1861-1868
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Cervical cancer and its obligate precursors, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grades 2 and 3 (CIN2/3), and adenocarcinona in situ (AIS), are caused by oncogenic human papillomavirus (HPV). In this combined analysis of four clinical trials we assessed the effect of prophylactic HPV vaccination on these diseases. Methods 20 583 women aged 16-26 years were randomised to receive quadrivalent HPV6/11/16/18 vaccine (n=9087), its HPV16 vaccine component (n=1204), or placebo (n=10292). They underwent periodic Papanicolaou testing, with colposcopy or biopsy for detected abnormalities. The primary composite endpoint was the combined incidence of HPV16/18-related CIN2/3, AIS, or cervical cancer. These trials are registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, numbers NCT00365378, NCT00365716, NCT00092521, and NCT00092534. Findings Mean follow-up was 3.0 years (SD 0.66) after first dose. In women negative for HPV16 or HPV18 infection during the vaccination regimen (n=17129, per protocol), vaccine efficacy was 99% for the primary endpoint (95% Cl 93-100), meeting the statistical criterion for success. In an intention-to-treat analysis of all randomised women (including those who were HPV16/18 naive or HPV16/18-infected at day 1), efficacy was 44% (95% Cl 31-55); all but one case in vaccine recipients occurred in women infected with HPV16 or HPV18 before vaccination. In a second intention-to-treat analysis we noted an 18% reduction (95% CI 7-29) in the overall rate of CIN2/3 or AIS due to any HPV type. Interpretation Administration of HPV vaccine to HPV-naive women, and women who are already sexually active, could substantially reduce the incidence of HPV16/18-related cervical precancers and cervical cancer.
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| 10. |
- Villa, Luisa L., et al.
(författare)
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Immunologic responses following administration of a vaccine targeting human papillomavirus Types 6, 11, 16, and 18
- 2006
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Ingår i: Vaccine. - : Elsevier BV. - 1873-2518 .- 0264-410X. ; 24:27-28, s. 5571-5583
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection causes cervical cancer and genital warts. Young women (1106) were randomized to receive one of three formulations of a quadrivalent HPV (Types 6/11/16/18) L1 virus-like particle (VLP) vaccine or one of two placebo formulations. The goal was to assess vaccine safety and immunogenicity in baseline HPV 6/11/16 or 18-naive and previously infected subjects. All three formulations were highly immunogenic. At Month 2 (postdose 1), among women with vaccine-type antibodies at baseline, vaccine-induced anti-HPV responses were similar to 12- to 26-fold higher than those observed in baseline-naive women, suggesting an anamnestic response. Following an initial, similar sized decline, anti-HPV responses plateaued and remained stable through end-of-study (3.0 years). No vaccine-related serious adverse experiences were reported. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 11. |
- Villa, Luisa L., et al.
(författare)
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Prophylactic efficacy of a quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine in women with virological evidence of HPV infection
- 2007
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Ingår i: Journal of Infectious Diseases. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1537-6613 .- 0022-1899. ; 196:10, s. 1438-1446
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background. A quadrivalent (types 6, 11, 16, and 18) human papillomavirus (HPV) L1 virus-like-particle (VLP) vaccine has been shown to be 95%-100% effective in preventing cervical and genital disease related to HPV-6,-11,-16, and-18 in 16-26-year-old women naive for HPV vaccine types. Because most women in the general population are sexually active, some will have already been infected with >= 1 HPV vaccine types at the time vaccination is offered. Here, we assessed whether such infected women are protected against disease caused by the remaining HPV vaccine types. Methods. Two randomized, placebo-controlled trials of the quadrivalent (types 6, 11, 16, and 18) HPV vaccine enrolled 17,622 women without consideration of baseline HPV status. Among women infected with 1-3 HPV vaccine types at enrollment, efficacy against genital disease related to the HPV vaccine type or types for which subjects were naive was assessed. Results. Vaccination was 100% effective (95% confidence interval [CI], 79%-100%) in preventing incident cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 or 3 or cervical adenocarcinoma in situ caused by the HPV type or types for which the women were negative at enrollment. Efficacy for preventing vulvar or vaginal HPV-related lesions was 94% (95% CI, 81%-99%). Conclusions. Among women positive for 1-3 HPV vaccine types before vaccination, the quadrivalent HPV vaccine protected against neoplasia caused by the remaining types. These results support vaccination of the general population without prescreening.
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