| 1. |
|
|
| 2. |
- Gakidou, E., et al.
(författare)
-
Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1345-1422
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined. Findings Since 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for men were smoking (124.1 million DALYs [95% UI 111.2 million to 137.0 million]), high systolic blood pressure (122.2 million DALYs [110.3 million to 133.3 million], and low birthweight and short gestation (83.0 million DALYs [78.3 million to 87.7 million]), and for women, were high systolic blood pressure (89.9 million DALYs [80.9 million to 98.2 million]), high body-mass index (64.8 million DALYs [44.4 million to 87.6 million]), and high fasting plasma glucose (63.8 million DALYs [53.2 million to 76.3 million]). In 2016 in 113 countries, the leading risk factor in terms of attributable DALYs was a metabolic risk factor. Smoking remained among the leading five risk factors for DALYs for 109 countries, while low birthweight and short gestation was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 38 countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In terms of important drivers of change in trends of burden attributable to risk factors, between 2006 and 2016 exposure to risks explains an 9.3% (6.9-11.6) decline in deaths and a 10.8% (8.3-13.1) decrease in DALYs at the global level, while population ageing accounts for 14.9% (12.7-17.5) of deaths and 6.2% (3.9-8.7) of DALYs, and population growth for 12.4% (10.1-14.9) of deaths and 12.4% (10.1-14.9) of DALYs. The largest contribution of trends in risk exposure to disease burden is seen between ages 1 year and 4 years, where a decline of 27.3% (24.9-29.7) of the change in DALYs between 2006 and 2016 can be attributed to declines in exposure to risks. Interpretation Increasingly detailed understanding of the trends in risk exposure and the RRs for each risk-outcome pair provide insights into both the magnitude of health loss attributable to risks and how modification of risk exposure has contributed to health trends. Metabolic risks warrant particular policy attention, due to their large contribution to global disease burden, increasing trends, and variable patterns across countries at the same level of development. GBD 2016 findings show that, while it has huge potential to improve health, risk modification has played a relatively small part in the past decade. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
|
|
| 3. |
|
|
| 4. |
|
|
| 5. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
-
Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
|
|
| 6. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(författare)
-
- 2020
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
|
|
| 7. |
- Thomas, B., et al.
(författare)
-
Global Cardiovascular and Renal Outcomes of Reduced GFR
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Journal of the American Society of Nephrology. - : Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health). - 1046-6673 .- 1533-3450. ; 28:7, s. 2167-2179
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The burden of premature death and health loss from ESRD is well described. Less is known regarding the burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to reduced GFR. We estimated the prevalence of reduced GFR categories 3, 4, and 5 (not on RRT) for 188 countries at six time points from 1990 to 2013. Relative risks of cardiovascular outcomes by three categories of reduced GFR were calculated by pooled random effects meta-analysis. Results are presented as deaths for outcomes of cardiovascular disease and ESRD and as disability-adjusted life years for outcomes of cardiovascular disease, GFR categories 3, 4, and 5, and ESRD. In 2013, reduced GFR was associated with 4% of deaths worldwide, or 2.2 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval [95% UI], 2.0 to 2.4 million). More than half of these attributable deaths were cardiovascular deaths (1.2 million; 95% UI, 1.1 to 1.4 million), whereas 0.96 million (95% UI, 0.81 to 1.0 million) were ESRD-related deaths. Compared with metabolic risk factors, reduced GFR ranked below high systolic BP, high body mass index, and high fasting plasma glucose, and similarly with high total cholesterol as a risk factor for disability-adjusted life years in both developed and developing world regions. In conclusion, by 2013, cardiovascular deaths attributed to reduced GFR outnumbered ESRD deaths throughout the world. Studies are needed to evaluate the benefit of early detection of CKD and treatment to decrease these deaths.
|
|
| 8. |
|
|
| 9. |
|
|
| 10. |
|
|
| 11. |
|
|
| 12. |
|
|
| 13. |
|
|
| 14. |
- Coresh, Josef, et al.
(författare)
-
Decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate and subsequent risk of end-stage renal disease and mortality
- 2014
-
Ingår i: Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA). - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 0098-7484 .- 1538-3598. ; 311:24, s. 2518-2531
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- IMPORTANCE: The established chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression end point of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or a doubling of serum creatinine concentration (corresponding to a change in estimated glomerular filtration rate [GFR] of −57% or greater) is a late event.OBJECTIVE: To characterize the association of decline in estimated GFR with subsequent progression to ESRD with implications for using lesser declines in estimated GFR as potential alternative end points for CKD progression. Because most people with CKD die before reaching ESRD, mortality risk also was investigated.DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION: Individual meta-analysis of 1.7 million participants with 12,344 ESRD events and 223,944 deaths from 35 cohorts in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with a repeated measure of serum creatinine concentration over 1 to 3 years and outcome data.DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Transfer of individual participant data or standardized analysis of outputs for random-effects meta-analysis conducted between July 2012 and September 2013, with baseline estimated GFR values collected from 1975 through 2012.MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: End-stage renal disease (initiation of dialysis or transplantation) or all-cause mortality risk related to percentage change in estimated GFR over 2 years, adjusted for potential confounders and first estimated GFR.RESULTS: The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of ESRD and mortality were higher with larger estimated GFR decline. Among participants with baseline estimated GFR of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, the adjusted HRs for ESRD were 32.1 (95% CI, 22.3-46.3) for changes of −57% in estimated GFR and 5.4 (95% CI, 4.5-6.4) for changes of −30%. However, changes of −30% or greater (6.9% [95% CI, 6.4%-7.4%] of the entire consortium) were more common than changes of −57% (0.79% [95% CI, 0.52%-1.06%]). This association was strong and consistent across the length of the baseline period (1 to 3 years), baseline estimated GFR, age, diabetes status, or albuminuria. Average adjusted 10-year risk of ESRD (in patients with a baseline estimated GFR of 35 mL/min/1.73 m2) was 99% (95% CI, 95%-100%) for estimated GFR change of −57%, was 83% (95% CI, 71%-93%) for estimated GFR change of −40%, and was 64% (95% CI, 52%-77%) for estimated GFR change of −30% vs 18% (95% CI, 15%-22%) for estimated GFR change of 0%. Corresponding mortality risks were 77% (95% CI, 71%-82%), 60% (95% CI, 56%-63%), and 50% (95% CI, 47%-52%) vs 32% (95% CI, 31%-33%), showing a similar but weaker pattern.CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Declines in estimated GFR smaller than a doubling of serum creatinine concentration occurred more commonly and were strongly and consistently associated with the risk of ESRD and mortality, supporting consideration of lesser declines in estimated GFR (such as a 30% reduction over 2 years) as an alternative end point for CKD progression.
|
|
| 15. |
|
|
| 16. |
- Grams, Morgan E, et al.
(författare)
-
Candidate Surrogate End Points for ESRD after AKI
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Journal of the American Society of Nephrology. - : American Society of Nephrology. - 1046-6673 .- 1533-3450. ; 27:9, s. 2851-2859
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- AKI, a frequently transient condition, is not accepted by the US Food and Drug Association as an end point for drug registration trials. We assessed whether an intermediate-term change in eGFR after AKI has a sufficiently strong relationship with subsequent ESRD to serve as an alternative end point in trials of AKI prevention and/or treatment. Among 161,185 United States veterans undergoing major surgery between 2004 and 2011, we characterized in-hospital AKI by Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes creatinine criteria and decline in eGFR from prehospitalization to postdischarge time points and quantified associations of these values with ESRD and mortality over a median of 3.8 years. An eGFR decline of ≥30% at 30, 60, and 90 days after discharge occurred in 3.1%, 2.5%, and 2.6%, of survivors without AKI and 15.9%, 12.2%, and 11.7%, of survivors with AKI. For patients with in-hospital AKI compared with those with no AKI and stable eGFR, a 30% decline in eGFR at 30, 60, and 90 days after discharge demonstrated adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of ESRD of 5.60 (4.06 to 7.71), 6.42 (4.76 to 8.65), and 7.27 (5.14 to 10.27), with corresponding estimates for 40% decline in eGFR of 6.98 (5.21 to 9.35), 8.03 (6.11 to 10.56), and 10.95 (8.10 to 14.82). Risks for mortality were smaller but consistent in direction. A 30%-40% decline in eGFR after AKI could be a surrogate end point for ESRD in trials of AKI prevention and/or treatment, but additional trial evidence is needed.
|
|
| 17. |
- Matsushita, Kunihiro, et al.
(författare)
-
Measures of chronic kidney disease and risk of incident peripheral artery disease : a collaborative meta-analysis of individual participant data.
- 2017
-
Ingår i: The Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology. - 2213-8587 .- 2213-8595. ; 5:9, s. 718-728
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Some evidence suggests that chronic kidney disease is a risk factor for lower-extremity peripheral artery disease. We aimed to quantify the independent and joint associations of two measures of chronic kidney disease (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] and albuminuria) with the incidence of peripheral artery disease.METHODS: In this collaborative meta-analysis of international cohorts included in the Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium (baseline measurements obtained between 1972 and 2014) with baseline measurements of eGFR and albuminuria, at least 1000 participants (this criterion not applied to cohorts exclusively enrolling patients with chronic kidney disease), and at least 50 peripheral artery disease events, we analysed adult participants without peripheral artery disease at baseline at the individual patient level with Cox proportional hazards models to quantify associations of creatinine-based eGFR, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR), and dipstick proteinuria with the incidence of peripheral artery disease (including hospitalisation with a diagnosis of peripheral artery disease, intermittent claudication, leg revascularisation, and leg amputation). We assessed discrimination improvement through c-statistics.FINDINGS: We analysed 817 084 individuals without a history of peripheral artery disease at baseline from 21 cohorts. 18 261 cases of peripheral artery disease were recorded during follow-up across cohorts (median follow-up was 7·4 years [IQR 5·7-8·9], range 2·0-15·8 years across cohorts). Both chronic kidney disease measures were independently associated with the incidence of peripheral artery disease. Compared with an eGFR of 95 mL/min per 1·73 m(2), adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for incident study-specific peripheral artery disease was 1·22 (95% CI 1·14-1·30) at an eGFR of 45 mL/min per 1·73 m(2) and 2·06 (1·70-2·48) at an eGFR of 15 mL/min per 1·73 m(2). Compared with an ACR of 5 mg/g, the adjusted HR for incident study-specific peripheral artery disease was 1·50 (1·41-1·59) at an ACR of 30 mg/g and 2·28 (2·12-2·44) at an ACR of 300 mg/g. The adjusted HR at an ACR of 300 mg/g versus 5 mg/g was 3·68 (95% CI 3·00-4·52) for leg amputation. eGFR and albuminuria contributed multiplicatively (eg, adjusted HR 5·76 [4·90-6·77] for incident peripheral artery disease and 10·61 [5·70-19·77] for amputation in eGFR <30 mL/min per 1·73 m(2) plus ACR ≥300 mg/g or dipstick proteinuria 2+ or higher vs eGFR ≥90 mL/min per 1·73 m(2) plus ACR <10 mg/g or dipstick proteinuria negative). Both eGFR and ACR significantly improved peripheral artery disease risk discrimination beyond traditional predictors, with a substantial improvement prediction of amputation with ACR (difference in c-statistic 0·058, 95% CI 0·045-0·070). Patterns were consistent across clinical subgroups.INTERPRETATION: Even mild-to-moderate chronic kidney disease conferred increased risk of incident peripheral artery disease, with a strong association between albuminuria and amputation. Clinical attention should be paid to the development of peripheral artery disease symptoms and signs in people with any stage of chronic kidney disease.FUNDING: American Heart Association, US National Kidney Foundation, and US National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.
|
|
| 18. |
- Carrero, Juan Jesus, et al.
(författare)
-
Albuminuria changes are associated with subsequent risk of end-stage renal disease and mortality
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Kidney International. - : Elsevier BV. - 0085-2538 .- 1523-1755. ; 91:1, s. 244-251
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Current guidelines for chronic kidney disease (CKD) recommend using albuminuria as well as estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) to stage CKD. However, CKD progression is solely defined by change in eGFR with little regard to the risk implications of change in albuminuria. This is an observational study from the Stockholm CREAtinine Measurements (SCREAM) project, a health care utilization cohort from Stockholm, Sweden, with laboratory measures from 2006-2011 and follow-up through December 2012. Included were 31,732 individuals with two or more ambulatory urine albumin to creatinine ratio (ACR) tests. We assessed the association between change in ACR during a baseline period of 1, 2, or 3 years and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or death. Using a 2-year baseline period, there were 378 ESRD events and 1712 deaths during a median of 3 years of follow-up. Compared to stable ACR, a 4-fold increase in ACR was associated with a 3.08-times (95% confidence interval 2.59 to 3.67) higher risk of ESRD while a 4-fold decrease in ACR was associated with a 0.34-times (0.26 to 0.45) lower risk of ESRD. Similar associations were found in people with and without diabetes mellitus, with and without hypertension, and also when adjusted for the change in eGFR during the same period. The association between change in ACR and mortality was weaker: ACR increase was associated with mortality, but the relationship was largely flat for ACR decline. Results were consistent for 1-, 2-, and 3-year ACR changes. Thus, changes in albuminuria are strongly and consistently associated with the risk of ESRD and death.
|
|
| 19. |
- Inker, Lesley A., et al.
(författare)
-
New creatinine- and cystatin C-based equations to estimate GFR without race
- 2021
-
Ingår i: New England Journal of Medicine. - 0028-4793. ; 385:19, s. 1737-1749
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Current equations for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) that use serum creatinine or cystatin C incorporate age, sex, and race to estimate measured GFR. However, race in eGFR equations is a social and not a biologic construct.Methods: We developed new eGFR equations without race using data from two development data sets: 10 studies (8254 participants, 31.5% Black) for serum creatinine and 13 studies (5352 participants, 39.7% Black) for both serum creatinine and cystatin C. In a validation data set of 12 studies (4050 participants, 14.3% Black), we compared the accuracy of new eGFR equations to measured GFR. We projected the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and GFR stages in a sample of U.S. adults, using current and new equations.Results: In the validation data set, the current creatinine equation that uses age, sex, and race overestimated measured GFR in Blacks (median, 3.7 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 of body-surface area; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8 to 5.4) and to a lesser degree in non-Blacks (median, 0.5 ml per minute per 1.73 m2; 95% CI, 0.0 to 0.9). When the adjustment for Black race was omitted from the current eGFR equation, measured GFR in Blacks was underestimated (median, 7.1 ml per minute per 1.73 m2; 95% CI, 5.9 to 8.8). A new equation using age and sex and omitting race underestimated measured GFR in Blacks (median, 3.6 ml per minute per 1.73 m2; 95% CI, 1.8 to 5.5) and overestimated measured GFR in non-Blacks (median, 3.9 ml per minute per 1.73 m2; 95% CI, 3.4 to 4.4). For all equations, 85% or more of the eGFRs for Blacks and non-Blacks were within 30% of measured GFR. New creatinine-cystatin C equations without race were more accurate than new creatinine equations, with smaller differences between race groups. As compared with the current creatinine equation, the new creatinine equations, but not the new creatinine-cystatin C equations, increased population estimates of CKD prevalence among Blacks and yielded similar or lower prevalence among non-Blacks.Conclusions: New eGFR equations that incorporate creatinine and cystatin C but omit race are more accurate and led to smaller differences between Black participants and non-Black participants than new equations without race with either creatinine or cystatin C alone.
|
|
