| 1. |
- Sushko, Iurii, et al.
(författare)
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Applicability Domains for Classification Problems : Benchmarking of Distance to Models for Ames Mutagenicity Set.
- 2010
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Ingår i: Journal of chemical information and modeling. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 1549-9596 .- 1549-960X. ; 50:12, s. 2094-2111
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The estimation of accuracy and applicability of QSAR and QSPR models for biological and physicochemical properties represents a critical problem. The developed parameter of "distance to model" (DM) is defined as a metric of similarity between the training and test set compounds that have been subjected to QSAR/QSPR modeling. In our previous work, we demonstrated the utility and optimal performance of DM metrics that have been based on the standard deviation within an ensemble of QSAR models. The current study applies such analysis to 30 QSAR models for the Ames mutagenicity data set that were previously reported within the 2009 QSAR challenge. We demonstrate that the DMs based on an ensemble (consensus) model provide systematically better performance than other DMs. The presented approach identifies 30-60% of compounds having an accuracy of prediction similar to the interlaboratory accuracy of the Ames test, which is estimated to be 90%. Thus, the in silico predictions can be used to halve the cost of experimental measurements by providing a similar prediction accuracy. The developed model has been made publicly available at http://ochem.eu/models/1 .
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| 2. |
- Gromov, Sergey P, et al.
(författare)
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Novel Photoswitchable Receptors: Synthesis and Cation-Induced Self-Assembly into Dimeric Complexes Leading to Stereospecific [2+2]-Photocycloaddition of Styryl Dyes Containing a 15-Crown-5 Ether Unit
- 2003
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Ingår i: The Journal of Organic Chemistry. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 0022-3263 .- 1520-6904. ; 68:16, s. 6115-25
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Styryl dyes 4a-e containing a 15-crown-5 ether unit and a quinoline residue with a sulfonatoalkyl or sulfonatobenzyl N-substituent were synthesized. The relationship between the photochemical behavior of these dyes and their aggregates derived from complexation with Mg2+ in MeCN was studied using 1H NMR and absorption spectroscopy. The E-isomers of 4a-e were shown to form highly stable dimeric (2:2) complexes with Mg2+. Upon irradiation with visible light, the dimeric complexes undergo two competing photoreactions, viz., geometric E Z isomerization, resulting in an anion-capped 1:1 complex of the Z-isomer with Mg2+ and stereospecific syn-head-to-tail [2+2]-cycloaddition, affording a single isomer of bis-crown-containing cyclobutane. The N-substituent in the dye has a dramatic effect on the photochemical behavior of the dimeric complex. Molecular dynamics and semiempirical quantum-chemical calculations were carried out to interpret the observed photocycloaddition in the dimer. Conformational equilibria for the dimer of (E)-4b were analyzed using 1H NMR spectroscopy.
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| 3. |
- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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