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- Jiguet, Frédéric, et al.
(författare)
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An update of the European breeding population sizes and trends of the Ortolan Bunting (Emberiza hortulana)
- 2016
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Ingår i: Ornis Fennica. - : University of Helsinki. - 0030-5685. ; 93:3, s. 186-196
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Following recent updates proposed by BirdLife International and further updates across Europe gathered in the context of a continent-wide study of the migration strategy of the species, we propose here an update of national population sizes and associated recent trends of the Ortolan Bunting (Emberiza hortulana). Previous estimates for the period 1999-2002 reported 5,200,000 to 16,000,000 breeding pairs, for an area extending east to European Russia, and south to the Caucasus and Turkey. The countries holding the largest populations were Turkey (3-10 million pairs) and Russia (1.5-5.0 million pairs). The updated results give approximately 3,319,000 to 7,057,000 pairs in Europe (for the period 2012-2014), representing a c. 50% decrease in numbers over the last decade. This decrease is partly due to overestimates proposed in previous reports for the key country, Turkey, which is now considered to support only 500,000 to 1,000,000 pairs. Russia still holds 2.0-4.3 million pairs, although with an estimated decline of c.15-30% since 2000. Overall, within the 39 European countries assessed here, recent decadal trends (on average 2000-2012) in population size are reported as unknown in 15 countries, increasing in 2 countries (Germany and Serbia), stable or fluctuating in 6 countries, and decreasing in 16 countries including recent extinctions in Belgium, Hungary, Slovakia and the Netherlands. Overall, declining populations are mostly located in northern Europe, and fourteen of the 15 northern European countries with a known national trend have declining breeding populations, suggesting that northern breeders are of particular conservation concern.
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| 2. |
- Soultan, Alaaeldin, et al.
(författare)
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The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution
- 2022
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9318 .- 1748-9326. ; 17:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s-2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr-1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr-1. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to 'climate debt'. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds' resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.
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