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Sökning: WFRF:(Belyazid Salim)

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3.
  • Akselsson, Cecilia, et al. (författare)
  • A Combined Measurement and Modelling Approach to Assess the Sustainability of Whole-Tree Harvesting—A Swedish Case Study
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Sustainability. - : MDPI AG. - 2071-1050. ; 13:4
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The demand of renewable energy has increased the interest in whole-tree harvesting. The sustainability of whole-tree harvesting after clear-cutting, from an acidification point of view, depends on two factors: the present acidification status and the further loss of buffering capacity at harvesting. The aims of this study were to investigate the relationship between these two factors at 26 sites along an acidification gradient in Sweden, to divide the sites into risk classes, and to examine the geographical distribution of them in order to provide policy-relevant insights. The present status was represented by the acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) in soil solution, and the loss of buffering capacity was represented by the estimated exceedance of critical biomass harvesting (CBH). The sites were divided into three risk classes combining ANC and exceedance of CBH. ANC and exceedance of CBH were negatively correlated, and most sites had either ANC < 0 and exceedance (high risk) or ANC > 0 and no exceedance (low risk). There was a geographical pattern, with the high risk class concentrated to southern Sweden, which was mainly explained by higher historical sulfur deposition and site productivity in the south. The risk classes can be used in the formulation of policies on whole-tree harvesting and wood ash recycling.
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4.
  • Akselsson, Cecilia, et al. (författare)
  • Assessing the risk of N leaching from forest soils across a steep N deposition gradient in Sweden.
  • 2010
  • Ingår i: Environmental Pollution. - : Elsevier BV. - 0269-7491 .- 1873-6424. ; 158:12, s. 3588-3595
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Nitrogen leaching from boreal and temporal forests, where normally most of the nitrogen is retained, has the potential to increase acidification of soil and water and eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. In parts of Sweden, where the nitrogen deposition has been intermediate to high during recent decades, there are indications that the soils are close to nitrogen saturation. In this study, four different approaches were used to assess the risk of nitrogen leaching from forest soils in different parts of Sweden. Nitrate concentrations in soil water and C:N ratios in the humus layer where interpreted, together with model results from mass balance calculations and detailed dynamic modelling. All four approaches pointed at a risk of nitrogen leaching from forest soils in southern Sweden. However, there was a substantial variation on a local scale. Basing the assessment on four different approaches makes the assessment robust.
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5.
  • Akselsson, Cecilia, et al. (författare)
  • Can increased weathering rates due to future warming compensate for base cation losses following whole-tree harvesting in spruce forests?
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Biogeochemistry. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0168-2563 .- 1573-515X. ; 128:1-2, s. 89-105
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Whole-tree harvesting, i.e. harvesting of stems, branches and tops, has become increasingly common during recent decades due to the increased demand for renewable energy. Whole-tree harvesting leads to an increase in base cation losses from the ecosystem, which can counteract recovery from acidification. An increase in weathering rates due to higher temperatures is sometimes suggested as a process that may counteract the acidifying effect of whole-tree harvesting. In this study the potential effect of increasing temperature on weathering rates was compared with the increase in base cation losses following whole-tree harvesting in spruce forests, along a temperature gradient in Sweden. The mechanistic model PROFILE was used to estimate weathering rates at National Forest Inventory sites at today’s temperature and the temperature in 2050, as estimated by two different climate projections. The same dataset was used to calculate base cation losses following stem-only and whole-tree harvesting. The calculations showed that the increase in temperature until 2050 would result in an increase in the base cation weathering rate of 20–33 %, and that whole-tree harvesting would lead to an increase in base cation losses of 66 % on average, compared to stem-only harvesting. A sensitivity analysis showed that moisture changes are important for future weathering rates, but the effect of the temperature change was dominating even when the most extreme moisture changes were applied. It was concluded that an increase in weathering rates resulting from higher temperatures would not compensate for the increase in base cation losses following whole-tree harvesting, except in the northernmost part of Sweden.
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6.
  • Akselsson, Cecilia, et al. (författare)
  • Critical biomass harvesting - Applying a new concept for Swedish forest soils
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Forest Ecology and Management. - : Elsevier BV. - 0378-1127 .- 1872-7042. ; 409, s. 67-73
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The contribution of forest harvesting to base cation losses and soil acidification has increased in recent years in Sweden, as the demand for bioenergy has increased and the sulphur deposition has decreased. Thus, new policy tools are required to evaluate the progress of the recovery from acidification, and as a basis for forest management recommendations. In this study we introduce and test a concept, Critical biomass harvesting. The concept builds on the concept Critical loads, which has been used world-wide for several decades as a bridge between science and policies related to transboundary air pollution and acidification. The basis for the concept is an acidity mass balance, with sources and sinks of acidity. A critical limit defines the highest acceptable acidification status of the water leaving the root zone. Based on the critical limit, the highest allowed biomass harvesting can be calculated, keeping the other parameters constant. In this study the critical limit was set to ANC (Acid Neutralizing Capacity) = 0. Nitrogen was assumed to be affecting acidity only if it leaches from the root zone. The critical biomass harvesting was calculated for almost 12000 National Forest Inventory sites with spruce and pine forest, using the best available data on deposition, weathering and nitrogen leaching. The exceedance of critical biomass harvesting was calculated as the difference between the estimated harvest losses and the critical biomass harvesting. The results were presented as median values in merged catchments in a catchment database, with totally 2079 merged catchments in Sweden. According to the calculations, critical biomass harvesting was exceeded in the southern half of Sweden already at stem harvesting in spruce forests. Whole-tree harvesting expanded the exceedance area, and increased the exceedance levels in southern Sweden. The exceedance in pine forest was lower and affected smaller areas. It was concluded that the concept of critical biomass harvesting can be successfully applied on the same database that has been used for critical load calculations in Sweden, using basically the same approach as has been extensively applied, evaluated and discussed in a critical load context. The results from the calculations in Sweden indicate that whole-tree harvesting, without wood ash recycling, can be expected to further slow down recovery, especially in the most acidified parts of the country, in the southwest.
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  • Akselsson, Cecilia, et al. (författare)
  • Weathering rates in Swedish forest soils
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4170 .- 1726-4189. ; 16:22, s. 4429-4450
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Soil and water acidification was internationally recognised as a severe environmental problem in the late 1960s. The interest in establishing “critical loads” led to a peak in weathering research in the 1980s and 1990s, since base cation weathering is the long-term counterbalance to acidification pressure. Assessments of weathering rates and associated uncertainties have recently become an area of renewed research interest, this time due to demand for forest residues to provide renewable bioenergy. Increased demand for forest fuels increases the risk of depleting the soils of base cations produced in situ by weathering. This is the background to the research programme Quantifying Weathering Rates for Sustainable Forestry (QWARTS), which ran from 2012 to 2019. The programme involved research groups working at different scales, from laboratory experiments to modelling. The aims of this study were to (1) investigate the variation in published weathering rates of base cations from different approaches in Sweden, with consideration of the key uncertainties for each method; (2) assess the robustness of the results in relation to sustainable forestry; and (3) discuss the results in relation to new insights from the QWARTS programme and propose ways to further reduce uncertainties. In the study we found that the variation in estimated weathering rates at single-site level was large, but still most sites could be placed reliably in broader classes of weathering rates. At the regional level, the results from the different approaches were in general agreement. Comparisons with base cation losses after stem-only and whole-tree harvesting showed sites where whole-tree harvesting was clearly not sustainable and other sites where variation in weathering rates from different approaches obscured the overall balance. Clear imbalances appeared mainly after whole-tree harvesting in spruce forests in southern and central Sweden. Based on the research findings in the QWARTS programme, it was concluded that the PROFILE/ForSAFE family of models provides the most important fundamental understanding of the contribution of weathering to long-term availability of base cations to support forest growth. However, these approaches should be continually assessed against other approaches. Uncertainties in the model approaches can be further reduced, mainly by finding ways to reduce uncertainties in input data on soil texture and associated hydrological parameters but also by developing the models, e.g. to better represent biological feedbacks under the influence of climate change.
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9.
  • Belyazid, Salim, et al. (författare)
  • A dynamic modelling approach for estimating critical loads of nitrogen based on pliant community changes under a changing climate
  • 2011
  • Ingår i: Environmental Pollution. - : Elsevier BV. - 0269-7491. ; 159:3, s. 789-801
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • A dynamic model of forest ecosystems was used to investigate the effects of climate change, atmospheric deposition and harvest intensity on 48 forest sites in Sweden (n = 16) and Switzerland (n = 32). The model was used to investigate the feasibility of deriving critical loads for nitrogen (N) deposition based on changes in plant community composition. The simulations show that climate and atmospheric deposition have comparably important effects on N mobilization in the soil, as climate triggers the release of organically bound nitrogen stored in the soil during the elevated deposition period. Climate has the most important effect on plant community composition, underlining the fact that this cannot be ignored in future simulations of vegetation dynamics. Harvest intensity has comparatively little effect on the plant community in the long term, while it may be detrimental in the short term following cutting. This study shows: that critical loads of N deposition can be estimated using the plant community as an indicator; that future climatic changes must be taken into account; and that the definition of the reference deposition is critical for the outcome of this estimate. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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10.
  • Belyazid, Salim, et al. (författare)
  • A Sustainability Assessment of the Urban Rehabilitation Project of the Medina of Fez, Morocco
  • 2003
  • Ingår i: Proceedings of the 21st International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. - 9780967291482
  • Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The old city of Fez, Morocco, classified as Heritage of Humankind by the UNESCO, is subject to an integrated rehabilitation plan running over 15 years. The plan aims at restoring and preserving the economy, cultural value, and social heritage of the old city. The study follows a system dynamics approach to describe and analyze the rehabilitation plan in order to identify the strengths and defects of the plan. This study shows that while the plan is giving relatively satisfying results over the short and medium terms, it is unlikely to attain long term sustainability.
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11.
  • Belyazid, Salim, et al. (författare)
  • Assessing the Effects of Climate Change and Air Pollution on Soil Properties and Plant Diversity in Northeastern US Hardwood Forests : Model Setup and Evaluation
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Water, Air and Soil Pollution. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0049-6979 .- 1573-2932. ; 230:5
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The integrated forest ecosystem model ForSAFE-Veg was used to simulate soil processes and understory vegetation composition at threesugar maple, beech, yellow birchhardwood forest sites in the Northeastern United States (one at Hubbard Brook, NH, and two at Bear Brook, ME). Input data were pooled from a variety of sources and proved coherent and consistent. While the biogeochemical component ForSAFE was used with limited calibration, the ground vegetation composition module Veg was calibrated to field releves. Evaluating different simulated ecosystem indicators (soil solution chemistry, tree biomass, ground vegetation composition) showed that the model performed comparably well regardless of the site's soil condition, climate, and amounts of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition, with the exception of failing to capture tree biomass decline at Hubbard Brook. The model performed better when compared with annual observation than monthly data. The results support the assumption that the biogeochemical model ForSAFE can be used with limited calibration and provide reasonable confidence, while the vegetation community composition module Veg requires calibration if the individual plant species are of interest. The study welcomes recent advances in empirically explaining the responses of hardwood forests to nutrient imbalances and points to the need for more research.
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12.
  • Belyazid, Salim (författare)
  • DYNAMIC MODELLING OF BIOGEOCHEMICAL PROCESSES IN FOREST ECOSYSTEMS
  • 2006
  • Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • Forests in Sweden are undergoing rapid and considerable changes regarding both management methods and environmental conditions. To understand the effects of these changes and to be able to predict impending changes in forest ecosystems, a holistic understanding of the processes governing the ecosystem is needed. To gain such an understanding, the ForSAFE model of the biogeochemical cycles in a forest ecosystem has been developed. ForSAFE is a dynamic model which closes the physical cycles between the living biomass, the soil organic matter, the soil hydrology and the soil chemistry. The model was complemented with a supplementary module, called VEG, to include the response of the composition of the ground vegetation to the conditions at the sites. This thesis describes ForSAFE-VEG and its application to forest ecosystems in Sweden. The model was applied to a number of coniferous Swedish sites with a wide geographical distribution to investigate the responses of the forest ecosystems to changes in atmospheric deposition and harvest methods. The model output was validated on different levels, including the biomass, the soil organic matter and the soil chemistry. The results of the simulations show that there is a high risk of nitrogen leaching, particularly in the south and centre of Sweden. The leaching of nitrogen is found to be triggered by harvesting, but the magnitude of the leaching depends on the historical accumulation of N from deposition. The simulations also predict an increase in the number of sites with acidified soils in the future, contrary to what has been predicted by previous models. The reason behind this increase was found to be the high uptake rates of base cations associated with high biomass growth rates, which in turn are the result of the high nitrogen deposition. Finally, the results of the ForSAFE-VEG were used to differentiate between the different causes of change in the ground vegetation diversity. The results indicate that the changes in the composition of the ground vegetation are triggered by clear-cutting, but that the direction of these changes is governed by the histories of the sites and the intensity of atmospheric deposition.
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13.
  • Belyazid, Salim, et al. (författare)
  • Exploring Ground Vegetation Change for Different Deposition Scenarios and Methods for Estimating Critical Loads for Biodiversity Using the ForSAFE-VEG Model in Switzerland and Sweden
  • 2011
  • Ingår i: Water, Air and Soil Pollution. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1573-2932 .- 0049-6979. ; 216:1-4, s. 289-317
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The ForSAFE-VEG model was used to investigate the impacts of climate change and air pollution scenarios on soil chemistry and ground vegetations composition. In particular, the model involves a ground vegetation model incorporating plant changes to ambient site conditions in terms of climate and chemistry, but the model also incorporate competition between the different plant groups. The model was validated against observed values and reproduced observations of tree growth, soil chemistry, and ground vegetation compositions to satisfaction. The results show that the ground vegetation reacts strongly to changes in air pollution, in particular nitrogen as well as to climate change with major shifts in plant composition. A procedure for estimating critical loads for nitrogen, using ground vegetation biodiversity as criterion, was tested and the method seems operable. It suggests that if we want to protect the present biodiversity of the ground vegetation, this will face significant difficulties because of permanent climate change that induced changes in the ecosystem. We conclude that the reference state for ground vegetation biodiversity is rather to be sought for in the future, hopefully using models, than in the past or present.
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  • Belyazid, Salim, et al. (författare)
  • Modelling changes in forest soil chemistry at 16 Swedish coniferous forest sites following deposition reduction
  • 2006
  • Ingår i: Environmental Pollution. - : Elsevier BV. - 0269-7491. ; 144:2, s. 596-609
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The dynamic forest ecosystem model ForSAFE was applied at 16 coniferous forest sites in Sweden to investigate past and future changes in soil chemistry following changes in atmospheric deposition. The simulation shows a considerable historical soil acidification. Acidification in the southwest, where deposition has been greatest, was more expressed in the deepest soil layers, while it was more evenly distributed through the soil profile in central Sweden, and was greater in the upper soil layers in the north. The simulation also shows that a slight recovery took place after the reduction in emissions, but was counteracted by the effect of harvesting. The simulation predicts an increase in the number of acidified sites in the future. The results also suggest that future acidification will be mainly due to the enhanced tree growth resulting from the chronic high deposition of nitrogen and the removal of soil base cations through harvesting. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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17.
  • Belyazid, Salim, et al. (författare)
  • Using ForSAFE-Veg to investigate the feasibility and requirements of setting critical loads for N based on vegetation change - pilot study at Gårdsjön
  • 2009
  • Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • The dynamic integrated ecosystem model ForSAFE-Veg was applied at the intensively monitored experimental catchment Gårdsjön, with the aim to investigate the performance of the model and the feasibility of using the composition of the ground vegetation community as an indicator of potential change due to N deposition. The quality, long term, and integrity of the measured data provided an ideal testing opportunity for evaluating the performance of the model, which proved satisfactory. The study shows that it is feasible to use the composition of the ground vegetation community as a biological indicator of ecosystem change. Yet, to be used in estimating critical loads of nitrogen (N) deposition, the biological indicator has to be simplified into a single-dimensional variable referred to as the average yearly exceedance (of change in the composition of the ground vegetation). The study shows that setting conditions to protect the dominant segment of the plant community, and thereby protecting ecosystem services, will also result in protecting the marginal plants proportion at the site. However, the choice of the segment of the plant community to be protected and the acceptable level of change remain bound to social preferences
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18.
  • Belyazid, Salim, et al. (författare)
  • Water limitation can negate the effect of higher temperatures on forest carbon sequestration
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: European Journal of Forest Research. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1612-4669 .- 1612-4677. ; 138:2, s. 287-297
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Climate change will bring about a consistent increase in temperatures. Annual precipitation rates are also expected to increase in boreal countries, but the seasonal distribution will be uneven, and several areas in the boreal zone will experience wetter winters and drier summers. This study uses the dynamic forest ecosystem model ForSAFE to estimate the combined effect of changes in temperature and precipitation on forest carbon stocks in Sweden. The model is used to simulate carbon stock changes in 544 productive forest sites from the Swedish National Forest Inventory. Forest carbon stocks under two alternative climate scenarios are compared to stocks under a hypothetical scenario of no climate change (baseline). Results show that lower water availability in the future can cause a significant reduction in tree carbon compared to a baseline scenario, particularly expressed in the southern and eastern parts of Sweden. In contrast, the north-western parts will experience an increase in tree carbon stocks. Results show also that summer precipitation is a better predictor of tree carbon reduction than annual precipitation. Finally, the change in soil carbon stock is less conspicuous than in tree carbon stock, showing no significant change in the north and a relatively small but consistent decline in the south. The study indicates that the prospect of higher water deficit caused by climate change cannot be ignored in future forest management planning.
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19.
  • Belyazid, Salim, et al. (författare)
  • Water Limitation in Forest Soils Regulates the Increase in Weathering Rates under Climate Change
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Forests. - : MDPI AG. - 1999-4907. ; 13:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Climate change is generally expected to have a positive effect on weathering rates, due to the strong temperature dependence of the weathering process. Important feedback mechanisms such as changes in soil moisture, tree growth and organic matter decomposition can affect the response of weathering rates to climate change. In this study, the dynamic forest ecosystem model ForSAFE, with mechanistic descriptions of tree growth, organic matter decomposition, weathering, hydrology and ion exchange processes, is used to investigate the effects of future climate scenarios on base cation weathering rates. In total, 544 productive coniferous forest sites from the Swedish National Forest Inventory are modelled, and differences in weathering responses to changes in climate from two Global Climate Models are investigated. The study shows that weathering rates at the simulated sites are likely to increase, but not to the extent predicted by a direct response to elevated air temperatures. Besides the result that increases in soil temperatures are less evident than those in air temperature, the study shows that soil moisture availability has a strong potential to limit the expected response to increased temperature. While changes in annual precipitation may not indicate further risk for more severe water deficits, seasonal differences show a clear difference between winters and summers. Taking into account the seasonal variation, the study shows that reduced soil water availability in the summer seasons will strongly limit the expected gain in weathering associated with higher temperatures.
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20.
  • Bennich, Therese, et al. (författare)
  • The Bio-Based Economy : Dynamics Governing Transition Pathways in the Swedish Forestry Sector
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Sustainability. - : MDPI AG. - 2071-1050. ; 10:4
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • A transition to a bio-based economy would entail change in coupled social-ecological systems. These systems are characterised by complexity, giving rise to potential unintended consequences and trade-offs caused by actions aiming to facilitate a transition process. Yet, many of the analyses to date have been focusing on single and predominantly technological aspects of the bio-based economy. The main contribution of our work is to the development of an integrated understanding of potential future transition pathways, with the present paper focusing specifically on terrestrial biological resources derived from the forestry sector in Sweden. Desired change processes identified include a transition to diversified forest management, a structural change in the forestry industry to enable high-value added production, and increased political support for the bio-based economy concept. Hindrances identified include the ability to demonstrate added values for end consumers of novel biomass applications, and uncertainty linked to a perceived high level of polarisation in the forestry debate. The results outline how these different processes are interrelated, allowing for the identification of high order leverage points and interventions to facilitate a transition to a bio-based economy.
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21.
  • Bennich, Therese, et al. (författare)
  • The bio-based economy, 2030 Agenda, and strong sustainability – A regional-scale assessment of sustainability goal interactions
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Journal of Cleaner Production. - : Elsevier BV. - 0959-6526 .- 1879-1786. ; 283
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Policy-makers face the challenge of assessing and implementing sustainability measures, while also dealing with parallel and sometimes conflicting policy agendas, long-term policy impacts, and contested interpretations of sustainability. To support evidence-based decision-making in this context, this paper presents the results from an integrated assessment of sustainability goal interactions. Links between the bio-based economy, the 2030 Agenda, and the so-called strong sustainability paradigm were explored in a regional-scale case. The analysis focused primarily on developments in the forestry and energy sectors. Direct trade-offs and synergies as well as broader systemic impacts were identified. The results show how goals from the bio-based economy, 2030 Agenda and strong sustainability paradigm are mutually interacting. Positive interactions were found within two clusters of goals, offering coherent and synergetic transition pathways within these. The first cluster encompasses developments toward intensified forestry, renewable energy, and closed-loop production systems. The second pathway supports diversified forestry and protection of critical natural capital. However, while internally coherent, trade-offs were identified between these goal clusters, demonstrating the difficulty in simultaneously making progress on goals belonging to different sustainability agendas. The results also stress the need for disaggregation and long-term assessments to identify trade-offs and synergies. Finally, the analysis highlights the theoretical potential but practical challenges of implementing the bio-based economy and 2030 Agenda in a way that adheres to strong sustainability. The analytical framework used in the present study may be adapted and applied to other decision-making contexts. It is particularly useful in settings characterized by uncertainty and unstructured problem spaces.
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23.
  • Bennich, Therese, et al. (författare)
  • The Route to Sustainability-Prospects and Challenges of the Bio-Based Economy
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Sustainability. - : MDPI AG. - 2071-1050. ; 9:6
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The bio-based economy has been increasingly recognized in the sustainability debate over the last two decades, presented as a solution to a number of ecological and social challenges. Its premises include climate change mitigation, cleaner production processes, economic growth, and new employment opportunities. Yet, a transition to a bio-based economy is hampered by risk factors and uncertainties. In this paper, we explore the concept of a bio-based economy, focusing on opportunities of achieving sustainability, as well as challenges of a transition. Departing from an understanding of sustainability provided by the weak and strong sustainability paradigms, we first outline the definition and development of the bio-based economy from a theoretical perspective. Second, we use Sweden as an example of how a transition towards a bio-based economy has been evolving in practice. The review indicates that the proposed direction and strategies of the bio-based economy are promising, but sometimes contradictory, resulting in different views on the actions needed for its premises to be realized. Additionally, current developments adhere largely to the principles of the weak sustainability paradigm. In order for the bio-based economy to develop in accordance with the notion of strong sustainability, important steps to facilitate a transition would include acknowledging and addressing the trade-offs caused by biophysical and social limits to growth.
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24.
  • Bennich, Therese, 1989- (författare)
  • The transition to a bio-based economy : Toward an integrated understanding
  • 2020
  • Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • The bio-based economy has gained increasing attention in societal and academic debates over the past two decades, and is argued to hold solutions to several pressing sustainability challenges. However, it is not yet clear if the high-reaching aspirations of the bio-based economy can be realized. The bio-based economy discourse has been criticized for being promissory, vague, and single-sector focused, thereby overlooking larger systemic impacts, trade-offs, and unintended consequences that may result from pursuing the goals of the bio-based economy. Against this background, this thesis aims to advance an integrated and systemic understanding of the transition to a bio-based economy and what it implies for sustainability. Sweden is used as an empirical case, where specific bio-based economy goals, as well as their interactions and sustainability outcomes, are examined. The focus is primarily on developments in the forestry, agriculture, and energy sectors. The analysis also seeks to identify how goals related to the bio-based economy are interconnected with goals promoted by parallel sustainability initiatives, specifically the 2030 Agenda and the associated Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Integration is achieved by using systems analysis tools and methods. Further, the weak and strong sustainability paradigms, and the opposing definitions of sustainability they provide, are used to assess the contribution of the bio-based economy to sustainability. The integrated analysis provides a detailed and operational conceptualization of transition pathways to a Swedish bio-based economy. The goals of the Swedish bio-based economy are divergent and broad-reaching, emphasizing that there is no general agreement on what the transition to a bio-based economy entails. The results point to multiple barriers that need to be addressed to realize the goals of the Swedish bio-based economy. Goal conflicts constitute one such barrier. These are found internal to as well as across the bio-based economy and the parallel 2030 Agenda. Additional hindrances include policy resistance, negative cross-sectoral spillovers, and patterns of path dependency. However, the results also highlight several opportunities for supporting the transition process in a Swedish context. These opportunities include the identification of goals and interventions with synergetic potential, which offer a basis for developing efficient implementation strategies with high systemic impact. There is also large potential to support cross-sectoral collaboration and learning, based on shared interests and challenges. Finally, the results emphasize the importance of better understanding and addressing perceptions about risk, conflict, legitimacy, and trust in the transition process.In terms of the overarching question of what the bio-based economy implies for sustainability, the results find that the bio-based economy has been contributing to developments that align primarily with weak sustainability. From the perspective of the strong sustainability paradigm, the prospects of the bio-based economy are less promising, potentially leading to outcomes that could worsen ongoing environmental and social issues. For the future, fundamental changes to the way the bio-based economy is conceptualized and implemented are needed for it to contribute to sustainability according to the notion of strong sustainability.
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25.
  • Bennich, Therese, et al. (författare)
  • Understanding the Transition to a Bio-Based Economy : Exploring Dynamics Linked to the Agricultural Sector in Sweden
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Sustainability. - : MDPI AG. - 2071-1050. ; 10:5
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • There is a growing interest in the bio-based economy, evident in the policy domain as well as in the academic literature. Its proponents consider it an opportunity to address multiple societal challenges, and the concept has broad reach across different sectors of society. However, a potential transition process is also linked to areas of risk and uncertainty, and the need for interdisciplinary research and for the identification of potential trade-offs and synergies between parallel visions of the bio-based economy have been emphasized. The aim of this paper is to contribute to addressing this gap by using an approach combining tools for systems analysis with expert interviews. Focusing specifically on dynamics in the agricultural sector in Sweden, an integrated understanding of the social and ecological processes contributing to or hindering a transition in this area is developed, high order leverage points are identified, and potential impacts of proposed interventions explored. The paper also considers cross-sectoral linkages between the forestry and agricultural sectors.
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26.
  • De Vries, W., et al. (författare)
  • Use of dynamic soil-vegetation models to assess impacts of nitrogen deposition on plant species composition: an overview
  • 2010
  • Ingår i: Ecological Applications. - : Wiley. - 1051-0761. ; 20:1, s. 60-79
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Field observations and experimental data of effects of nitrogen (N) deposition oil plant species diversity have been Used to derive empirical critical N loads for various ecosystems. The great advantage of such an approach is the inclusion of field evidence, but there are also restrictions, such as the absence of explicit criteria regarding significant effects on the vegetation, and the impossibility to predict future impacts when N deposition changes. Model approaches Call account for this. In this paper, we review the possibilities of static and dynamic multispecies models in combination with dynamic soil-vegetation models to (1) predict plant species composition as a function of atmospheric N deposition and (2) calculate critical N loads in relation to a prescribed protection level of the species composition. The similarities between the models are presented, but also several important differences, including the Use of different indicators for N and acidity and the prediction of individual plant species VS. Plant communities. A summary of the strengths and weaknesses of the various Models, including their validation status, is given. Furthermore,. examples are given of critical load calculations with the model chains and their comparison with empirical critical N loads. We show that linked biogeochemistry-biodiversity models for N have potential for applications to support European policy to reduce N input, but the definition of damage thresholds for terrestrial biodiversity represents a major challenge. There is also a clear need for further testing and validation of the models against long-term monitoring or long-term experimental data sets and against large-scale survey data. This requires a focused data collection ill Europe. combing vegetation descriptions with variables affecting the species diversity. such as Soil acidity, nutrient status and water availability. Finally there is a need for adaptation and upscaling of the models beyond the regions for which dose-response relationships have been parameterized, to make them generally applicable.
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27.
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28.
  • Erlandsson Lampa, Martin, et al. (författare)
  • Catchment export of base cations : improved mineral dissolution kinetics influence the role of water transit time
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: SOIL. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 2199-3971 .- 2199-398X. ; 6:1, s. 231-244
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Soil mineral weathering is one of the major sources of base cations (BC), which play a dual role in forest ecosystems: they function as plant nutrients and buffer against the acidification of catchment runoff. On a long-term basis, soil weathering rates determine the highest sustainable forest productivity that does not cause acidification. It is believed that the hydrologic residence time plays a key role in determining the weathering rates at the landscape scale. The PROFILE weathering model has been used for almost 30 years to calculate weathering rates in the rooting zone of forest soils. However, the mineral dissolution equations in PROFILE are not adapted for the saturated zone, and employing these equations at the catchment scale results in a significant overprediction of base cation release rates to surface waters. In this study, we use a revised set of PROFILE equations which, among other features, include retardation due to silica concentrations. Relationships between the water transit time (WTT) and soil water concentrations were derived for each base cation, by simulating the soil water chemistry along a one-dimensional flow path, using the mineralogy from a glacial till soil. We show how the revised PROFILE equations are able to reproduce patterns in BC and silica concentrations as well as BC ratios (Ca2+/BC, Mg2+/BC and Na+/BC) that are observed in the soil water profiles and catchment runoff. In contrast to the original set of PROFILE equations, the revised set of equations could reproduce the fact that increasing WTT led to a decreasing Na+/BC ratio and increasing Ca2+/BC and Mg2+/BC ratios. Furthermore, the total release of base cations from a hillslope was calculated using a mixing model, where water with different WTTs was mixed according to an externally modeled WTT distribution. The revised set of equations gave a 50% lower base cation release (0.23 eqm 2 yr 1) than the original PROFILE equations and are in better agreement with mass balance calculations of weathering rates. Thus, the results from this study demonstrate that the revised mineral dissolution equations for PROFILE are a major step forward in modeling weathering rates at the catchment scale.
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29.
  • Erlandsson Lampa, Martin, et al. (författare)
  • Effects of whole-tree harvesting on soil, soil water and tree growth - A dynamic modelling exercise in four long-term experiments
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Ecological Modelling. - : Elsevier BV. - 0304-3800 .- 1872-7026. ; 414
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Whole tree harvesting (WTH) following final felling of productive forests is increasingly promoted as a method to extract biomass for energy purposes. Despite its importance, there is a limited number of experimental studies investigating the impacts of WTH on forest ecosystem sustainability. Modelling studies have previously been carried out to complement and explain empirical observations from four long-term WTH experiments in Sweden. The literature shows a significant discrepancy between these studies, and open questions remain as to the fate of the base cations that are not removed in the absence of WTH. This study uses the integrated ecosystem model ForSAFE, which simulate a forest ecosystem's biogeochemical processes and the feedbacks between these processes, to trace the fate of base cations for the said four long-term WTH experiments. The study shows that the model generally captures the observed effects of WTH on the stocks of base cations in the biomass and in the soil. The modelled results were also used to map how the base cations removed through WTH would otherwise (if left at the site) have been distributed in the ecosystem. The results indicate that the soil organic pool may be more important to the long-term base cation balance than the exchangeable pool, and should receive more attention in future research.
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30.
  • Escobar, Daniel, et al. (författare)
  • Back to the Future : Restoring Northern Drained Forested Peatlands for Climate Change Mitigation
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Frontiers in Environmental Science. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-665X. ; 10
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Draining peatlands for forestry in the northern hemisphere turns their soils from carbon sinks to substantial sources of greenhouse gases (GHGs). To reverse this trend, rewetting has been proposed as a climate change mitigation strategy. We performed a literature review to assess the empirical evidence supporting the hypothesis that rewetting drained forested peatlands can turn them back into carbon sinks. We also used causal loop diagrams (CLDs) to synthesize the current knowledge of how water table management affects GHG emissions in organic soils. We found an increasing number of studies from the last decade comparing GHG emissions from rewetted, previously forested peatlands, with forested or pristine peatlands. However, comparative field studies usually report relatively short time series following rewetting experiments (e.g., 3 years of measurements and around 10 years after rewetting). Empirical evidence shows that rewetting leads to lower GHG emissions from soils. However, reports of carbon sinks in rewetted systems are scarce in the reviewed literature. Moreover, CH4 emissions in rewetted peatlands are commonly reported to be higher than in pristine peatlands. Long-term water table changes associated with rewetting lead to a cascade of effects in different processes regulating GHG emissions. The water table level affects litterfall quantity and quality by altering the plant community; it also affects organic matter breakdown rates, carbon and nitrogen mineralization pathways and rates, as well as gas transport mechanisms. Finally, we conceptualized three phases of restoration following the rewetting of previously drained and forested peatlands, we described the time dependent responses of soil, vegetation and GHG emissions to rewetting, concluding that while short-term gains in the GHG balance can be minimal, the long-term potential of restoring drained peatlands through rewetting remains promising.
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31.
  • Felton, Adam, et al. (författare)
  • Climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies for production forests : Trade-offs, synergies, and uncertainties in biodiversity and ecosystem services delivery in Northern Europe
  • 2024
  • Ingår i: Ambio. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 53, s. 1-16
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies (CCAMS) are changes to the management of production forests motivated by the need to mitigate climate change, or adapt production forests to climate change risks. Sweden is employing CCAMS with unclear implications for biodiversity and forest ecosystem services (ES). Here, we synthesized evidence from 51 published scientific reviews, to evaluate the potential implications for biodiversity and a range of provisioning, regulating, and cultural ES, from the adoption of CCAMS relative to standard forestry practice. The CCAMS assessed were the adoption of (i) mixed-species stands, (ii) continuous cover forestry, (iii) altered rotation lengths, (iv) conversion to introduced tree species, (v) logging residue extraction, (vi) stand fertilization, and (vii) altered ditching/draining practices. We highlight the complexity of biodiversity and ES outcomes, identify knowledge gaps, and emphasize the importance of evidence-based decision making and landscape-scale planning when navigating choices involving the widespread adoption of CCAMS. 
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32.
  • Finlay, Roger, et al. (författare)
  • Reviews and syntheses : Biological weathering and its consequences at different spatial levels - from nanoscale to global scale
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4170 .- 1726-4189. ; 17:6, s. 1507-1533
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Plant nutrients can be recycled through microbial decomposition of organic matter but replacement of base cations and phosphorus, lost through harvesting of biomass/biofuels or leaching, requires de novo supply of fresh nutrients released through weathering of soil parent material (minerals and rocks). Weathering involves physical and chemical processes that are modified by biological activity of plants, microorganisms and animals. This article reviews recent progress made in understanding biological processes contributing to weathering. A perspective of increasing spatial scale is adopted, examining the consequences of biological activity for weathering from nanoscale interactions, through in vitro and in planta microcosm and meso-cosm studies, to field experiments, and finally ecosystem and global level effects. The topics discussed include the physical alteration of minerals and mineral surfaces; the composition, amounts, chemical properties, and effects of plant and microbial secretions; and the role of carbon flow (including stabilisation and sequestration of C in organic and inorganic forms). Although the predominant focus is on the effects of fungi in forest ecosystems, the properties of biofilms, including bacterial interactions, are also discussed. The implications of these biological processes for modelling are discussed, and we attempt to identify some key questions and knowledge gaps, as well as experimental approaches and areas of research in which future studies are likely to yield useful results. A particular focus of this article is to improve the representation of the ways in which biological processes complement physical and chemical processes that mobilise mineral elements, making them available for plant uptake. This is necessary to produce better estimates of weathering that are required for sustainable management of forests in a post-fossil-fuel economy. While there are abundant examples of nanometre- and micrometre-scale physical interactions between microorganisms and different minerals, opinion appears to be divided with respect to the quantitative significance of these observations for overall weathering. Numerous in vitro experiments and microcosm studies involving plants and their associated microorganisms suggest that the allocation of plant-derived carbon, mineral dissolution and plant nutrient status are tightly coupled, but there is still disagreement about the extent to which these processes contribute to field-scale observations. Apart from providing dynamically responsive pathways for the allocation of plant-derived carbon to power dissolution of minerals, mycorrhizal mycelia provide conduits for the long-distance trans-portation of weathering products back to plants that are also quantitatively significant sinks for released nutrients. These mycelial pathways bridge heterogeneous substrates, reducing the influence of local variation in C : N ratios. The production of polysaccharide matrices by biofilms of interacting bacteria and/or fungi at interfaces with mineral surfaces and roots influences patterns of production of antibiotics and quorum sensing molecules, with concomitant effects on microbial community structure, and the qualitative and quantitative composition of mineral-solubilising compounds and weathering products. Patterns of carbon allocation and nutrient mobilisation from both organic and inorganic substrates have been studied at larger spatial and temporal scales, including both ecosystem and global levels, and there is a generally wider degree of acceptance of the systemic effects of microorganisms on patterns of nutrient mobilisation. Theories about the evolutionary development of weathering processes have been advanced but there is still a lack of information connecting processes at different spatial scales. Detailed studies of the liquid chemistry of local weathering sites at the micrometre scale, together with upscaling to soil-scale dissolution rates, are advocated, as well as new approaches involving stable isotopes.
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33.
  • Gaudio, Noemie, et al. (författare)
  • Combined effect of atmospheric nitrogen deposition and climate change on temperate forest soil biogeochemistry: A modeling approach
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Ecological Modelling. - : Elsevier BV. - 0304-3800. ; 306, s. 24-34
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Atmospheric N deposition is known to severely impact forest ecosystem functioning by influencing soil biogeochemistry and nutrient balance, and consequently tree growth and overall forest health and biodiversity. Moreover, because climate greatly influences soil processes, climate change and atmospheric N deposition must both be taken into account when analysing the evolution of forest ecosystem status over time. Dynamic biogeochemical models have been developed to test different climate and atmospheric N deposition scenarios and their potential interactions in the long term. In this study, the ForSAFE model was used to predict the combined effect of atmospheric N deposition and climate change on two temperate forest ecosystems in France dominated by oak and spruce, and more precisely on forest soil biogeochemistry, from today to 2100. After a calibration step and following a careful statistical validation process, two atmospheric N deposition scenarios were tested: the current legislation in Europe (CLE) and the maximum feasible reduction (MFR) scenarios. They were combined with three climate scenarios: current climate scenario, worst-case climate scenario (A2) and best-case climate scenario (B1). The changes in base saturation and inorganic N concentration in the soil solution were compared across all scenario combinations, with the aim of forecasting the state of acidification, eutrophication and forest ecosystem recovery up to the year 2100. Simulations highlighted that climate had a stronger impact on soil base saturation, whereas atmospheric deposition had a comparative effect or a higher effect than climate on N concentration in the soil solution. Although deposition remains the main factor determining the evolution of N concentration in soil solution, increased temperature had a significant effect. Results also highlighted the necessity of considering the joint effect of both climate and atmospheric N deposition on soil biogeochemistry.
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34.
  • Gustafsson, Jon Petter, 1964-, et al. (författare)
  • Aluminium and base cation chemistry in dynamic acidification models - need for a reappraisal?
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: SOIL. - : COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH. - 2199-3971 .- 2199-398X. ; 4:4, s. 237-250
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Long-term simulations of the water composition in acid forest soils require that accurate descriptions of aluminium and base cation chemistry are used. Both weathering rates and soil nutrient availability depend on the concentrations of Al3+, of H+, and of base cations (Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, and K+). Assessments of the acidification status and base cation availability will depend on the model being used. Here we review in what ways different dynamic soil chemistry models describe the processes governing aluminium and base cation concentrations in the soil water. Furthermore, scenario simulations with the HD-MINTEQ model are used to illustrate the difference between model approaches. The results show that all investigated models provide the same type of response to changes in input water chemistry. Still, for base cations we show that the differences in the magnitude of the response may be considerable depending on whether a cation-exchange equation (Gaines-Thomas, Gapon) or an organic complexation model is used. The former approach, which is used in many currently used models (e.g. MAGIC, ForSAFE), causes stronger pH buffering over a relatively narrow pH range, as compared to state-of-the-art models relying on more advanced descriptions in which organic complexation is important (CHUM, HD-MIN PLQ). As for aluminium, a "fixed" gibbsite constant, as used in MAGIC, SMART/VSD, and ForSAFE, leads to slightly more pH buffering than in the more advanced models that consider both organic complexation and Al(OH)(3) (s) precipitation, but in this case the effect is small. We conclude that the descriptions of acid-base chemistry and base cation binding in models such as MAGIC, SMART/VSD, and ForSAFE are only likely to work satisfactorily in a narrow pH range. If the pH varies greatly over time, the use of modern organic complexation models is preferred over cation-exchange equations.
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35.
  • Haraldsson, Hördur, et al. (författare)
  • The coming water shortage in the Jordan River Basin - Finding objectivity in a subjective problem
  • 2002
  • Ingår i: Proceeding of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. ; , s. 78-78
  • Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Water distribution and availability in the Jordan region were studied. Self-sufficiency in water availability within the region is determined by the minimum amount of water used per person that is renewable. The objectives of the study were to identify the causes of water shortages and alternative use of water to prolong future supplies. According to our analysis, Israel and Jordan will overutilise their water source by a factor of 2 and Palestine by a factor of 1, by the year 2030. Water recycling has a potential in all the countries. The agricultural sector makes up the bulk of the water use (73-85%). Different water-saving techniques and alternative crop production can drastically reduce water use. Diverting away from agriculture and alternatively developing the industry sector would alleviate the immediate water shortages but will make the region dependent on the global grain market.
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36.
  • Haraldsson, Hördur, et al. (författare)
  • The tyranny of small steps: A reoccurring behaviour in management
  • 2008
  • Ingår i: Systems Research and Behavioral Science. - : Wiley. - 1099-1743 .- 1092-7026. ; 25:1, s. 25-43
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The Tyranny of Small Steps (TYST) behaviour has been investigated. Explained through a systemic perspective, the behaviour TYST is an unwanted change to a system through a series of small activities that may be independent from one another. These activities are small enough not to be detected by the 'surveillance' within the system, but significant enough to encroach upon the 'tolerance zone' of the system and compromise integrity of the system. TYST is an unintentional process that is experienced within the system and made possible by the lack of transparency between an overarching level and a local level where the encroachment is taking place. The Orby case study illustrates a real life manifestation of the TYST behaviour in management and planning. The TYST illustrates the necessity for total transparency in any systems in order to avoid unintended consequence. The TYST process may be regarded as a part of wide range of complex systems but depending on the conditions, it can remain dormant, and only become active when the conditions for lack of transparency are fulfilled.
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37.
  • Haraldsson, Hördur V., et al. (författare)
  • Causal Loop Diagrams – Promoting Deep Learning of Complex Systems in Engineering Education (rev 2007-05-11)
  • 2006
  • Ingår i: [Host publication title missing].
  • Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The use of systems analysis involving tools like Causal loop diagrams and stock and flow diagrams can be shown in practical tests to greatly enhance systems insight and understanding of the dynamic behaviour of complex systems. Whereas many students may have difficulty understanding what a coupled system of differential equations really do, systems analysis creates such insights even to those with differentiofobia. Within the systems analysis course given at LUMES, we have extensive experience in teaching systems analysis and the use of CLD and SFDs to people of different backgrounds, and also seen how technical problems in engineering have a great help in using CLD and SFDs to explain and communicate insight into complex systems to non-technical people
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38.
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39.
  • Hellsten, Sofie, et al. (författare)
  • Effekter av skogsbränsleuttag på markförsurning, näringsbalanser och tillväxt - Uppskalning baserat på experimentella data och modellberäkningar som grund för kartläggning av behov av askåterföring
  • 2008
  • Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • I denna studie har tre olika verktyg använts för att studera effekten på näringsbalanser (N, P, Ca, Mg, K och Na) och försurning samt tillväxt vid skogsbränsleuttag; i) utvärdering av långliggande helträdsförsök, ii) beräkningar med en näringsbalansmodell med hög geografisk upplösning, samt iii) dynamisk modellering. Tre olika scenarier har studerats; stamuttag, GROT-uttag och stubbskörd. Stor vikt har lagts vid att göra en känslighetsanalys för näringshalter i olika träddelar, som är en viktig indata-parameter i näringsbalansberäkningarna, samt att undersöka möjligheterna att minska osäkerheten i näringshalter samt biomassa. Tre långliggande försök visade på en minskning i biomassa, vid tidpunkten för första gallringen, på omkring 15% efter GROT-uttag. Även halterna i träddelar av olika ämnen minskade efter GROT-uttag med upp till 10 %. De långliggande försöken visar på en minskning av basmättnaden i humuslagret och den övre delen av mineraljorden, oftast mellan 10 och 30 %, 15 och 26 år efter GROT-uttag. Samband hittades både för tall och gran mellan C/N i humuslagret och kvävehalt i barr. Denna studie visar att det finns stor potential i att använda näringsbalansberäkningar och beräkningar av överskottsaciditet på Riksskogstaxeringens punkter för att bedöma utarmningstakten för baskatjoner samt behovet av askåterföring. Känslighetsanalysen visade att osäkerheten i näringshalter har relativt stor påverkan på resultatet för N, Ca och K. Vidare arbete med den dynamiska modelleringen (fler lokaler, fler scenarier och fler omloppstider) kan öka förståelsen för effekter av GROT-uttag. Det är även viktigt att utveckla och förfina stubb-beräkningarna, och att tillsammans med representanter från det praktiska skogbruket jobba vidare med att utveckla realistiska scenarier för uttag av stam, GROT och stubbar.
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40.
  • Hopf, Sven-Eric, et al. (författare)
  • Dendrochemical indicators of tree rings reveal historical soil acidification in Swiss forest stands
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Dendrochronologia. - 1125-7865 .- 1612-0051. ; 81
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The deposition of acidifying nitrogen and sulphur compounds from agriculture and fossil fuel combustion has drastically altered the chemical balance of forest soils in many regions of the world, leading to soil acidification with negative impacts on nutrient availability and thus also on tree vitality. The change of nutrient concentrations in the soil solution can be assessed by long-term investigations, however meaningful indicators, reflecting environmental changes, are needed to compare the current nutrient status with past values. We used dendrochemical indicators in stem wood of different tree species to access the impact of acidifying depositions on soil quality and tree nutrition. We selected 328 stem wood samples from 96 trees of Norway spruce (Picea abies), European beech (Fagus sylvatica), Sessile oak (Quercus petrea) and English oak (Quercus robur) from 22 forest sites, which are part of the long-term Intercantonal Forest Observation Program in Switzerland. Four time periods of 20 years were defined according to the emissions of air pollutants between 1910 and 2017. Our results showed a trend of increasing Al concentrations in tree rings of spruce peaking in the most recent time period (2000–2017). Mn and Ca concentrations in spruce and beech wood have decreased significantly throughout the time period 1910–2017. These dendrochemical indicators depended on the soil pH, with higher Al and lower Mn and Ca concentrations for soils with a low pH (pH<4.2). In oak trees the observed dendrochemical changes are confounded with dendrochemical differences between heartwood and sapwood. K and Mg showed inconsistent patterns in all three tree species, which are probably caused by translocation within the stem discs. With the use of piecewise structural equation models (SEM) we highlighted the direct and indirect influences of N deposition on element concentrations in stem wood. The data suggest a relation between increased N deposition and lower base saturation values in the forest soils for all three tree species, which were linked to higher Al concentrations in spruce and lower Mn concentrations in spruce and beech. The relation between Al concentrations in tree rings of Norway spruce and measured base saturation was used to reconstruct past soil base saturation values. It revealed a progressive soil acidification in the long-term forest observation sites. These reconstructed base saturation values were further used to validate modelled values from dynamic biogeochemical models such as SAFE/ForSAFE. This comparison pointed out possible shortcomings such as the lack of organic complexation in those models. Taken together, our analyses showed that element concentrations of Al, Mn, Ca in Norway spruce and European beech stem wood were suitable dendrochemical indicators of environmental change due to soil acidification, as they reflect both direct and indirect effects of air pollutants and chemical soil properties.
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41.
  • Koca, Deniz, et al. (författare)
  • The Rubber Industry and Extended Producers' Responsibility Framework: Opportunities and Threats for Swedish Rubber Manufacturers
  • 2002
  • Ingår i: Proceeding of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. ; , s. 88-89
  • Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
    • An array of sustainable ways either to reduce the amount of waste rubber generated or for the re-utilisation of waste rubber products as different means of resources at the end of their service lives are provided and briefly evaluated from economic, social and environmental perspectives. Potential measures which the Swedish rubber industry and its major stakeholders can implement (within the context of extended producer’s responsibility framework) to increase source reduction, reuse, material recycling, and energy recovery from waste rubber are examined. Based on the concept of system dynamics, the links between different issues, possible problems arising from them and the solutions, and their relation to the sustainable waste rubber management system are analysed by understanding the cause and effect relationship between important parameters. A model is developed using Stella 5.1.1u to help the decision makers to evaluate different scenarios in Swedish waste rubber management.
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42.
  • Kronnäs, Veronika, et al. (författare)
  • Dynamic modelling of weathering rates - the benefit over steady-state modelling
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Soil. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 2199-3971 .- 2199-398X. ; 5:1, s. 33-47
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Weathering rates are of considerable importance in estimating the acidification sensitivity and recovery capacity of soil and are thus important in the assessment of the sustainability of forestry in a time of changing climate and growing demands for forestry products. In this study, we modelled rates of weathering in mineral soil at two forested sites in southern Sweden included in a monitoring network, using two models. The aims were to determine whether the dynamic model ForSAFE gives comparable weathering rates to the steady-state model PROFILE and whether the ForSAFE model provided believable and useful extra information on the response of weathering to changes in acidification load, climate change and land use. The average weathering rates calculated with ForSAFE were very similar to those calculated with PROFILE for the two modelled sites. The differences between the models regarding the weathering of certain soil layers seemed to be due mainly to differences in calculated soil moisture. The weathering rates provided by ForSAFE vary seasonally with temperature and soil moisture, as well as on longer timescales, depending on environmental changes. Long-term variations due to environmental changes can be seen in the ForSAFE results, for example, the weathering of silicate minerals is suppressed under acidified conditions due to elevated aluminium concentration in the soil, whereas the weathering of apatite is accelerated by acidification. The weathering of both silicates and apatite is predicted to be enhanced by increasing temperature during the 21st century. In this part of southern Sweden, yearly precipitation is assumed to be similar to today's level during the next forest rotation, but with more precipitation in winter and spring and less in summer, which leads to somewhat drier soils in summer but still with increased weathering. In parts of Sweden with a bigger projected decrease in soil moisture, weathering might not increase despite increasing temperature. These results show that the dynamic ForSAFE model can be used for weathering rate calculations and that it gives average results comparable to those from the PROFILE model. However, dynamic modelling provides extra information on the variation in weathering rates with time and offers much better possibilities for scenario modelling.
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43.
  • Kronnäs, Veronika, et al. (författare)
  • Effect of droughts and climate change on future soil weathering rates in Sweden
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - Göteborg : IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet AB. - 1726-4170 .- 1726-4189. ; 20:10, s. 1879-1899
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • In a future warmer climate, extremely dry, warm summers might become more common. Soil weathering is affected by temperature and precipitation, and climate change and droughts can therefore affect soil chemistry and plant nutrition. In this study, climate change and drought effects on soil weathering rates and release of Ca, Mg, K and Na were studied on seven forest sites across different climates in Sweden, using the dynamical model ForSAFE.Two climate scenarios were run, one medium severity climate change scenario from IPCC (A1B) and one scenario where a future drought period of 5 years was added, while everything else was equal to the first scenario. The model results show a large geographical variation of weathering rates for the sites, without any geographical gradient, despite the strong dependence of temperature on weathering and the strong gradient in temperature in Sweden. This is because soil texture and mineralogy have strong effects on weathering.The weathering rates have a pronounced seasonal dynamic. Weathering rates are low during winters and generally high, but variable, during summers, depending on soil moisture and temperature. According to the model runs, the future yearly average weathering rates will increase by 5 %–17 % per degree of warming. The relative increase is largest in the two southeastern sites, with low total weathering rates. At sites in southern Sweden, future weathering increase occurs throughout the year according to the modelling.In the north, the increase in weathering during winters is almost negligible, despite larger temperature increases than in other regions or seasons (5.9 ∘C increase in winter in Högbränna; the yearly average temperature increase for all sites is 3.7 ∘C), as the winter temperatures still will mostly be below zero. The drought scenario has the strongest effect in southern Sweden, where weathering during the later parts of the drought summers decreases to typical winter weathering rates.Soil texture and amount of gravel also influence how fast the weathering decreases during drought and how fast the soil rewets and reaches normal weathering rates after the drought. The coarsest of the modelled soils dries out and rewets quicker than the less coarse of the modelled soils. In the north, the soils do not dry out as much as in the south, despite the low precipitation, due to lower evapotranspiration, and in the northernmost site, weathering is not much affected. Yearly weathering during the drought years relative to the same years in the A1B scenario are between 78 % and 96 % for the sites.The study shows that it is crucial to take seasonal climate variations and soil texture into account when assessing the effects of a changed climate on weathering rates and plant nutrient availability.
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44.
  • LeDuc, Stephen D., et al. (författare)
  • Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition Reductions Projected to Partially Restore Forest Soil Conditions in the US Northeast, While Understory Composition Continues to Shift with Future Climate Change
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Water, Air and Soil Pollution. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0049-6979 .- 1573-2932. ; 233:9
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Human activities have dramatically increased nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition, altering forest ecosystem function and structure. Anticipating how changes in deposition and climate impact forests can inform decisions regarding these environmental stressors. Here, we used a dynamic soil-vegetation model (ForSAFE-Veg) to simulate responses to future scenarios of atmospheric deposition and climate change across 23 Northeastern hardwood stands. Specifically, we simulated soil percent base saturation, acid neutralizing capacity (ANC), nitrate (NO3−) leaching, and understory composition under 13 interacting deposition and climate change scenarios to the year 2100, including anticipated deposition reductions under the Clean Air Act (CAA) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change–projected climate futures. Overall, deposition affected soil responses more than climate did. Soils recovered to historic conditions only when future deposition returned to pre-industrial levels, although anticipated CAA deposition reductions led to a partial recovery of percent base saturation (60 to 72%) and ANC (65 to 71%) compared to historic values. CAA reductions also limited NO3− leaching to 30 to 66% above historic levels, while current levels of deposition resulted in NO3− leaching 150 to 207% above historic values. In contrast to soils, understory vegetation was affected strongly by both deposition and climate. Vegetation shifted away from historic and current assemblages with increasing deposition and climate change. Anticipated CAA reductions could maintain current assemblages under current climate conditions or slow community shifts under increased future changes in temperature and precipitation. Overall, our results can inform decision-makers on how these dual stressors interact to affect forest health, and the efficacy of deposition reductions under a changing climate.
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45.
  • Liang, Kongqiu, et al. (författare)
  • A modified critical load assessment method of heavy metals in paddy soil at large scale
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Journal of Cleaner Production. - 0959-6526 .- 1879-1786. ; 416
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The environmental capacity of agro-ecosystem is the basis of sustainable development of agriculture, but this is hard to evaluate quantitatively due to complex input and output processes of heavy metals. Therefore, in this study, leaching of heavy metals based on PROFILE weathering model were integrated into the steady-state critical load (SSCL) of heavy metals. The results showed that the leaching rates of Hg, As, Cd, Cr, Pb, Cu and Zn in paddy soil were 0.08, 4.69, 0.22, 44.31, 18.13, 21.96 and 64.42 g/ha ‧a, respectively, while the leaching rates were significantly correlated with pH, CaO, TFe2O3 and Corg.. Atmospheric deposition was the main input source of heavy metals in agricultural soil, while rice plant uptake and leaching were the main output pathways. The spatial distribution of SSCL were mainly affected by the content of heavy metals in soil, Aw (specific area of soil mineral), and ρ (bulk density). Values of SSCL hardly changed after about 40 years (Hg≈0.02 kg/ha, As≈0.60 kg/ha, Cd≈0.07 kg/ha, Cr≈ 5.59 kg/ha, Pb≈3.55 kg/ha, Cu≈1.49 kg/ha and Zn≈4.45 kg/ha). However, the sensitivity analysis indicated that soil leaching had 24.30%-27.90% positive effects on SSCL model. Based on the relationship among leaching, pH, standard limit and SSCL of heavy metals, the standard limit could be appropriately raised to cope with the increased human activities on the premise of the ecological capacity. Thus, the SSCL model provides a new insight for the establishment of environment management in agricultural soils.
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46.
  • Lucander, Klas, et al. (författare)
  • The Effect of Nitrogen Fertilization on Tree Growth, Soil Organic Carbon and Nitrogen Leaching-A Modeling Study in a Steep Nitrogen Deposition Gradient in Sweden
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Forests. - : MDPI AG. - 1999-4907. ; 12:3
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Nitrogen (N) fertilization in forests has the potential to increase tree growth and carbon (C) sequestration, but it also means a risk of N leaching. Dynamic models can, if the important processes are well described, play an important role in assessing benefits and risks of nitrogen fertilization. The aim of this study was to test if the ForSAFE model is able to simulate correctly the effects of N fertilization when considering different levels of N availability in the forest. The model was applied for three sites in Sweden, representing low, medium and high nitrogen deposition. Simulations were performed for scenarios with and without fertilization. The effect of N fertilization on tree growth was largest at the low deposition site, whereas the effect on N leaching was more pronounced at the high deposition site. For soil organic carbon (SOC) the effects were generally small, but in the second forest rotation SOC was slightly higher after fertilization, especially at the low deposition site. The ForSAFE simulations largely confirm the N saturation theory which state that N will not be retained in the forest when the ecosystem is N saturated, and we conclude that the model can be a useful tool in assessing effects of N fertilization.
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47.
  • McGivney, Eric, et al. (författare)
  • Assessing the impact of acid rain and forest harvest intensity with the HD-MINTEQ model - soil chemistry of three Swedish conifer sites from 1880 to 2080
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: SOIL. - : COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH. - 2199-3971 .- 2199-398X. ; 5:1, s. 63-77
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Forest soils are susceptible to anthropogenic acidification. In the past, acid rain was a major contributor to soil acidification, but, now that atmospheric levels of S have dramatically declined, concern has shifted towards biomass-induced acidification, i.e. decreasing soil solution pH due to tree growth and harvesting events that permanently remove base cations (BCs) from forest stands. We use a novel dynamic model, HD-MINTEQ (Husby Dynamic MINTEQ), to investigate possible long-term impacts of two theoretical future harvesting scenarios in the year 2020, a conventional harvest (CH, which removes stems only), and a whole-tree harvest (WTH, which removes 100 % of the above-ground biomass except for stumps) on soil chemistry and weathering rates at three different Swedish forest sites (Aneboda, Gardsjon, and Kindla). Furthermore, acidification following the harvesting events is compared to the historical acidification that took place during the 20th century due to acid rain. Our results show that historical acidification due to acid rain had a larger impact on pore water chemistry and mineral weathering than tree growth and harvesting, at least if nitrification remained at a low level. However, compared to a no-harvest baseline, WTH and CH significantly impacted soil chemistry. Directly after a harvesting event (CH or WTH), the soil solution pH sharply increased for 5 to 10 years before slowly declining over the remainder of the simulation (until year 2080). WTH acidified soils slightly more than CH, but in certain soil horizons there was practically no difference by the year 2080. Even though the pH in the WTH and CH scenario decreased with time as compared to the no-harvest scenario (NH), they did not drop to the levels observed around the peak of historic acidification (1980-1990), indicating that the pH decrease due to tree growth and harvesting would be less impactful than that of historic atmospheric acidification. Weathering rates differed across locations and horizons in response to historic acidification. In general, the predicted changes in weathering rates were very small, which can be explained by the net effect of decreased pH and increased Al3+, which affected the weathering rate in opposite ways Similarly, weathering rates after the harvesting scenarios in 2020 remained largely unchanged according to the model.
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48.
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49.
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50.
  • Phelan, Jennifer, et al. (författare)
  • Estimation of Soil Base Cation Weathering Rates with the PROFILE Model to Determine Critical Loads of Acidity for Forested Ecosystems in Pennsylvania, USA: Pilot Application of a Potential National Methodology
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Water, Air and Soil Pollution. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1573-2932 .- 0049-6979. ; 225:9, s. 2109-2109
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Base cation weathering (BCw) rate is one of the most influential yet difficult to estimate parameters in the calculation of critical acid loads of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition for terrestrial systems. Only the clay correlation-substrate method, a simple empirical model, has been used for estimating BCw rates for forest ecosystems in the conterminous USA and may not be suitable for application at all sites without calibration or revision. An alternate model, PROFILE, may offer an improved method to estimate BCw rates. It is a transferable, process-based model that simulates the weathering rates of groups of minerals. The objective of this study was to evaluate PROFILE using national datasets as a method to estimate BCw rates for forests in the USA, focusing on Pennsylvania (PA) as the first test state. The model paired with national datasets was successfully applied at 51 forested sites across PA. Weathering rates ranged from 119 to 9,245 eq ha(-1) year(-1) and were consistent with soil properties and regional geology. Comparisons of terrestrial critical acid loads with 2002 N and S deposition showed critical load exceedances at 53 % of the sites. This trial evaluation of PROFILE paired with national datasets in PA establishes that there are sufficient data to support the estimation of BCw rates and determination of critical acid loads for forests in the USA. However, the paired method should be applied in other locations to further evaluate the performance of the model in different regions of the country.
  •  
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