| 1. |
- Blöschl, Günter, et al.
(författare)
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Current European flood-rich period exceptional compared with past 500 years
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 583:7817, s. 560-566
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- There are concerns that recent climate change is altering the frequency and magnitude of river floods in an unprecedented way(1). Historical studies have identified flood-rich periods in the past half millennium in various regions of Europe(2). However, because of the low temporal resolution of existing datasets and the relatively low number of series, it has remained unclear whether Europe is currently in a flood-rich period from a long-term perspective. Here we analyse how recent decades compare with the flood history of Europe, using a new database composed of more than 100 high-resolution (sub-annual) historical flood series based on documentary evidence covering all major regions of Europe. We show that the past three decades were among the most flood-rich periods in Europe in the past 500 years, and that this period differs from other flood-rich periods in terms of its extent, air temperatures and flood seasonality. We identified nine flood-rich periods and associated regions. Among the periods richest in floods are 1560-1580 (western and central Europe), 1760-1800 (most of Europe), 1840-1870 (western and southern Europe) and 1990-2016 (western and central Europe). In most parts of Europe, previous flood-rich periods occurred during cooler-than-usual phases, but the current flood-rich period has been much warmer. Flood seasonality is also more pronounced in the recent period. For example, during previous flood and interflood periods, 41 per cent and 42 per cent of central European floods occurred in summer, respectively, compared with 55 per cent of floods in the recent period. The exceptional nature of the present-day flood-rich period calls for process-based tools for flood-risk assessment that capture the physical mechanisms involved, and management strategies that can incorporate the recent changes in risk. Analysis of thousands of historical documents recording floods in Europe shows that flooding characteristics in recent decades are unlike those of previous centuries.
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| 2. |
- Califano, America, et al.
(författare)
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Cumulative climate-induced fatigue damage in wooden painted surfaces : The case of wooden churches in Sweden
- 2024
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Ingår i: Journal of Cultural Heritage. - : Elsevier. - 1296-2074 .- 1778-3674. ; 67, s. 313-325
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Environmental variations of Temperature (T) and Relative Humidity (RH) in air cause a superficial and/or sub -surface deformation (shrinkage/swelling) of organic hygroscopic objects, as for example wood. These environmental variations may be due to the natural variability of climate, to the use of Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems and to the presence of people. This contribution focuses on a group of wooden rural churches located in harsh climates in Sweden. The churches, which are still in use for the local communities, are heated during wintertime to reach acceptable indoor comfort levels causing potentially risky T and RH fluctuations for hygroscopic objects. In this framework, the main goal is assessing the risk of fracture on wooden structural elements caused by hygrothermal fluctuations. The method is based on a preliminary approach for reconstructing the climate history experienced by a typical wooden structural element of these churches and that, over time, results in a cyclic fatigue loading, naturally induced by the outdoor climate. Then, the effect of the artificial heating on the indoor microclimate and, therefore, on the reconstructed fatigue curve is assessed. Main outcomes were obtained by using a methodology that is preliminary based on simplifying assumptions, due to a severe lack of knowledge, in literature, about the fatigue behavior of wood. Finally, main considerations on the fatigue behavior of exposed wooden elements are drawn up, namely the estimation of their residual life (or "lifeto -damage"), which may support conservators or church managers in better managing the microclimate to reduce the risk of fracture on valuable objects.
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| 3. |
- Haugen, Annika, et al.
(författare)
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A Methodology for Long-Term Monitoring of Climate Change Impacts on Historic Buildings
- 2018
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Ingår i: Geosciences. - : MDPI AG. - 2076-3263. ; 8:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A new methodology for long-term monitoring of climate change impacts on historic buildings and interiors has been developed. This paper proposes a generic framework for how monitoring programs can be developed and describes the planning and arrangement of a Norwegian monitoring campaign. The methodology aims to make it possible to establish a data-driven decision making process based on monitored decay related to climate change. This monitoring campaign includes 45 medieval buildings distributed over the entirety of Norway. Thirty-five of these buildings are dated to before 1537 and include wooden buildings as well as 10 medieval churches built in stone while the remaining 10 buildings are situated in the World Heritage sites of Bryggen, in Bergen on the west coast of Norway, and in Røros, which is a mining town in the inland of the country. The monitoring is planned to run for 30 to 50 years. It includes a zero-level registration and an interval-based registration system focused on relevant indicators, which will make it possible to register climate change-induced decay at an early stage.
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| 4. |
- Leissner, Johanna, et al.
(författare)
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Climate for Culture : assessing the impact of climate change on the future indoor climate in historic buildings using simulations
- 2015
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Ingår i: Heritage Science. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2050-7445. ; 3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The present study reports results from the large-scale integrated EU project "Climate for Culture". The full name, or title, of the project is Climate for Culture: damage risk assessment, economic impact and mitigation strategies for sustainable preservation of cultural heritage in times of climate change. This paper focusses on implementing high resolution regional climate models together with new building simulation tools in order to predict future outdoor and indoor climate conditions. The potential impact of gradual climate change on historic buildings and on the vast collections they contain has been assessed. Two moderate IPCC emission scenarios A1B and RCP 4.5 were used to predict indoor climates in historic buildings from the recent past until the year 2100. Risks to the building and to the interiors with valuable artifacts were assessed using damage functions. A set of generic building types based on data from existing buildings were used to transfer outdoor climate conditions to indoor conditions using high resolution climate projections for Europe and the Mediterranean. Results The high resolution climate change simulations have been performed with the regional climate model REMO over the whole of Europe including the Mediterranean region. Whole building simulation tools and a simplified building model were developed for historic buildings; they were forced with high resolution climate simulations. This has allowed maps of future climate-induced risks for historic buildings and their interiors to be produced. With this procedure future energy demands for building control can also be calculated. Conclusion With the newly developed method described here not only can outdoor risks for cultural heritage assets resulting from climate change be assessed, but also risks for indoor collections. This can be done for individual buildings as well as on a larger scale in the form of European risk maps. By using different standardized and exemplary artificial buildings in modelling climate change impact, a comparison between different regions in Europe has become possible for the first time. The methodology will serve heritage owners and managers as a decision tool, helping them to plan more effectively mitigation and adaption measures at various levels.
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| 5. |
- Luterbacher, Jürg, et al.
(författare)
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Circulation dynamics and its influence on European and Mediterranean January–April climate over the past half millennium : results and insights from instrumental data,documentary evidence and coupled climate models
- 2010
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Ingår i: Climatic Change. - Netherlands : Springer. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 101:1-2, s. 201-234
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We use long instrumental temperature series together with available field reconstructions of sea-level pressure (SLP) and three-dimensional climate modelsimulations to analyze relations between temperature anomalies and atmospheric circulation patterns over much of Europe and the Mediterranean for the late winter/early spring (January–April, JFMA) season. A Canonical Correlation Analysis(CCA) investigates interannual to interdecadal covariability between a new gridded SLP field reconstruction and seven long instrumental temperature series covering the past 250 years. We then present and discuss prominent atmospheric circulation patterns related to anomalous warm and cold JFMA conditions within different European areas spanning the period 1760–2007. Next, using a data assimilation technique, we link gridded SLP data with a climate model (EC-Bilt-Clio) for a better dynamical understanding of the relationship between large scale circulationand European climate. We thus present an alternative approach to reconstruct climate for the pre-instrumental period based on the assimilated model simulations.Furthermore, we present an independent method to extend the dynamic circulation analysis for anomalously cold European JFMA conditions back to the sixteenth century. To this end, we use documentary records that are spatially representative for the long instrumental records and derive, through modern analogs, large-scale SLP, surface temperature and precipitation fields. The skill of the analog method is tested in the virtual world of two three-dimensional climate simulations (ECHOGand HadCM3). This endeavor offers new possibilities to both constrain climate model into a reconstruction mode (through the assimilation approach) and to better assess documentary data in a quantitative way.
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| 6. |
- van Rheenen, Wouter, et al.
(författare)
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Genome-wide association analyses identify new risk variants and the genetic architecture of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis
- 2016
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 48:9, s. 1043-1048
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To elucidate the genetic architecture of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and find associated loci, we assembled a custom imputation reference panel from whole-genome-sequenced patients with ALS and matched controls (n = 1,861). Through imputation and mixed-model association analysis in 12,577 cases and 23,475 controls, combined with 2,579 cases and 2,767 controls in an independent replication cohort, we fine-mapped a new risk locus on chromosome 21 and identified C21orf2 as a gene associated with ALS risk. In addition, we identified MOBP and SCFD1 as new associated risk loci. We established evidence of ALS being a complex genetic trait with a polygenic architecture. Furthermore, we estimated the SNP-based heritability at 8.5%, with a distinct and important role for low-frequency variants (frequency 1-10%). This study motivates the interrogation of larger samples with full genome coverage to identify rare causal variants that underpin ALS risk.
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