| 1. |
- Aad, G, et al.
(författare)
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Search for a new resonance decaying to a W or Z boson and a Higgs boson in the [Formula: see text] final states with the ATLAS detector.
- 2015
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Ingår i: European Physical Journal C. Particles and Fields. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1434-6044. ; 75:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A search for a new resonance decaying to a W or Z boson and a Higgs boson in the [Formula: see text] final states is performed using 20.3 fb[Formula: see text] of pp collision data recorded at [Formula: see text] 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The search is conducted by examining the WH / ZH invariant mass distribution for a localized excess. No significant deviation from the Standard Model background prediction is observed. The results are interpreted in terms of constraints on the Minimal Walking Technicolor model and on a simplified approach based on a phenomenological Lagrangian of Heavy Vector Triplets.
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| 2. |
- Aad, G, et al.
(författare)
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Determination of spin and parity of the Higgs boson in the [Formula: see text] decay channel with the ATLAS detector.
- 2015
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Ingår i: European Physical Journal C. Particles and Fields. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1434-6044. ; 75:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Studies of the spin and parity quantum numbers of the Higgs boson in the [Formula: see text] final state are presented, based on proton-proton collision data collected by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.3 fb[Formula: see text] at a centre-of-mass energy of [Formula: see text] TeV. The Standard Model spin-parity [Formula: see text] hypothesis is compared with alternative hypotheses for both spin and CP. The case where the observed resonance is a mixture of the Standard-Model-like Higgs boson and CP-even ([Formula: see text]) or CP-odd ([Formula: see text]) Higgs boson in scenarios beyond the Standard Model is also studied. The data are found to be consistent with the Standard Model prediction and limits are placed on alternative spin and CP hypotheses, including CP mixing in different scenarios.
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| 3. |
- Blösch, Günter, et al.
(författare)
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Twenty-three unsolved problems in hydrology (UPH) - a community perspective
- 2019
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Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 64:10, s. 1141-1158
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper is the outcome of a community initiative to identify major unsolved scientific problems in hydrology motivated by a need for stronger harmonisation of research efforts. The procedure involved a public consultation through online media, followed by two workshops through which a large number of potential science questions were collated, prioritised, and synthesised. In spite of the diversity of the participants (230 scientists in total), the process revealed much about community priorities and the state of our science: a preference for continuity in research questions rather than radical departures or redirections from past and current work. Questions remain focused on the process-based understanding of hydrological variability and causality at all space and time scales. Increased attention to environmental change drives a new emphasis on understanding how change propagates across interfaces within the hydrological system and across disciplinary boundaries. In particular, the expansion of the human footprint raises a new set of questions related to human interactions with nature and water cycle feedbacks in the context of complex water management problems. We hope that this reflection and synthesis of the 23 unsolved problems in hydrology will help guide research efforts for some years to come.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- McDonnell, J.J., et al.
(författare)
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How old is streamwater? : Open questions in catchment transit time conceptualization, modelling and analysis
- 2010
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Ingår i: Hydrological Processes. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0885-6087 .- 1099-1085. ; 24:12, s. 1745-1754
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The time water spends travelling subsurface through a catchment to the stream network (i.e. the catchment water transit time) fundamentally describes the storage, flow pathway heterogeneity and sources of water in a catchment. The distribution of transit times reflects how catchments retain and release water and solutes that in turn set biogeochemical conditions and affect contamination release or persistence. Thus, quan- tifying the transit time distribution provides an important constraint on biogeochemical processes and catchment sensitivity to anthropogenic inputs, contamination and land-use change. Although the assumptions and limitations of past and present transit time modelling approaches have been recently reviewed (McGuire and McDonnell, 2006), there remain many fundamental research challenges for understanding how transit time can be used to quantify catchment flow processes and aid in the development and testing of rainfall–runoff models. In this Commen- tary study, we summarize what we think are the open research questions in transit time research. These thoughts come from a 3-day workshop in January 2009 at the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna. We attempt to lay out a roadmap for this work for the hydrological commu- nity over the next 10 years. We do this by first defining what we mean (qualitatively and quantitatively) by transit time and then organize our vision around needs in transit time theory, needs in field studies of tran- sit time and needs in rainfall – runoff modelling. Our goal in presenting this material is to encourage widespread use of transit time information in process studies to provide new insights to catchment function and to inform the structural development and testing of hydrologic models.
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| 6. |
- Seibert, J., et al.
(författare)
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Gauging the ungauged basin : how many discharge measurements are needed?
- 2009
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Ingår i: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. - 1027-5606 .- 1607-7938. ; 13:6, s. 883-892
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Runoff estimation in ungauged catchments is probably one of the most basic and oldest tasks of hydrologists. This long-standing issue has received increased attention recently due to the PUB (Prediction in Ungauged Basins) initiative. Given the challenges of predicting runoff for ungauged catchments one might argue that the best course of action is to take a few runoff measurements. In this study we explored how implementing such a procedure might support predictions in an ungauged basin. We used a number of monitored Swedish catchments as hypothetical ungauged basins where we pretended to start with no runoff data and then added different sub-sets of the available data to constrain a simple catchment model. These sub-sets consisted of a limited number of single runoff measurements; in other words these data represent what could be measured with limited efforts in an ungauged basin. We used a Monte Carlo approach and predicted runoff as a weighted ensemble mean of simulations using acceptable parameter sets. We found that the ensemble prediction clearly outperformed the predictions using single parameter sets and that surprisingly little runoff data was necessary to identify model parameterizations that provided good results for the 'ungauged' test periods. These results indicated that a few runoff measurements can contain much of the information content of continuous runoff time series. However, the study also indicated that results may differ significantly between catchments and also depend on the days chosen for taking the measurements.
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| 7. |
- Westerberg, Ida K., et al.
(författare)
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Regional water balance modelling using flow-duration curves with observational uncertainties
- 2014
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Ingår i: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1027-5606 .- 1607-7938. ; 18:8, s. 2993-3013
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Robust and reliable water-resource mapping in ungauged basins requires estimation of the uncertainties in the hydrologic model, the regionalisation method, and the observational data. In this study we investigated the use of regionalised flow-duration curves (FDCs) for constraining model predictive uncertainty, while accounting for all these uncertainty sources. A water balance model was applied to 36 basins in Central America using regionally and globally available precipitation, climate and discharge data that were screened for inconsistencies. A rating-curve analysis for 35 Honduran discharge stations was used to estimate discharge uncertainty for the region, and the consistency of the model forcing and evaluation data was analysed using two different screening methods. FDCs with uncertainty bounds were calculated for each basin, accounting for both discharge uncertainty and, in many cases, uncertainty stemming from the use of short time series, potentially not representative for the modelling period. These uncertain FDCs were then used to regionalise a FDC for each basin, treating it as ungauged in a cross-evaluation, and this regionalised FDC was used to constrain the uncertainty in the model predictions for the basin. There was a clear relationship between the performance of the local model calibration and the degree of data set consistency - with many basins with inconsistent data lacking behavioural simulations (i.e. simulations within predefined limits around the observed FDC) and the basins with the highest data set consistency also having the highest simulation reliability. For the basins where the regionalisation of the FDCs worked best, the uncertainty bounds for the regionalised simulations were only slightly wider than those for a local model calibration. The predicted uncertainty was greater for basins where the result of the FDC regionalisation was more uncertain, but the regionalised simulations still had a high reliability compared to the locally calibrated simulations and often encompassed them. The regionalised FDCs were found to be useful on their own as a basic signature constraint; however, additional regionalised signatures could further constrain the uncertainty in the predictions and may increase the robustness to severe data inconsistencies, which are difficult to detect for ungauged basins.
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| 8. |
- Pappenberger, F., et al.
(författare)
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Fuzzy set approach to calibrating distributed flood inundation models using remote sensing observations
- 2007
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Ingår i: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1027-5606 .- 1607-7938. ; 11:2, s. 739-752
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The paper presents a methodology for the estimation of uncertainty of inundation extent, which takes account of the uncertainty in the observed spatially distributed information and implements a fuzzy evaluation methodology. The Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) technique and the 2-D LISFLOOD-FP model were applied to derive the set of uncertain inundation realisations and resulting flood inundation maps. Conditioning of the inundation maps on fuzzified Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images results in much more realistic inundation risk maps which can better depict the variable pattern of inundation extent than previously used methods. It has been shown that the evaluation methodology compares well to traditional approaches and can produce flood hazard maps that reflect the uncertainties in model evaluation.
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| 9. |
- Pappenberger, F., et al.
(författare)
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Grasping the unavoidable subjectivity in calibration of flood inundation models: A vulnerability weighted approach
- 2007
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Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 333:2-4, s. 275-287
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Quantitative modeling of risk and hazard from flooding involves decisions regarding the choice of model and goal of the modeling exercise, expressed by some measure of performance. This paper shows how the subjectivity in the choices of performance measures and observation sets used for model calibration inevitably results in variability in the estimation of flood hazard. We compare the predictions of a 2D flood inundation model obtained using different global and local evaluation criteria. It is shown that traditional area averaging performance measures are inadequate in the face of model imperfection, especially when such models are calibrated for flood hazard studies. In this study we include flood risk weighting into the performance measure of the model. This allows us to calibrate the model to places that are important, e.g. location of houses. The quantification of the importance of places requires the necessity of engaging stakeholders into the model calibration process.
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| 10. |
- Pappenberger, F, et al.
(författare)
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Sensitivity analysis based on regional splits and regression trees (SARS-RT)
- 2006
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Ingår i: Environmental Modelling & Software. - : Elsevier BV. - 1364-8152 .- 1873-6726. ; 21:7, s. 976-990
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A global sensitivity analysis with regional properties is introduced. This method is demonstrated on two synthetic and one hydraulic example. It can be shown that an uncertainty analysis based on one-dimensional scatter plots and correlation analyses such as the Spearman Rank Correlation coefficient can lead to misinterpretations of any model results. The method which has been proposed in this paper is based on multiple regression trees (so called Random Forests). The splits at each node of the regression tree are sampled from a probability distribution. Several criteria are enforced at each level of splitting to ensure positive information gain and also to distinguish between behavioural and non-behavioural model representations. The latter distinction is applied in the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and regional sensitivity analysis (RSA) framework to analyse model results and is used here to derive regression tree (model) structures. Two methods of sensitivity analysis are used: in the first method the total information gain achieved by each parameter is evaluated. In the second method parameters and parameter sets are permuted and an error rate computed. This error rate is compared to values without permutation. This latter method allows the evaluation of the sensitivity of parameter combinations and thus gives an insight into the structure of the response surface. The examples demonstrate the capability of this methodology and stress the importance of the application of sensitivity analysis. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 11. |
- Thorndahl, S., et al.
(författare)
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Event based uncertainty assessment in urban drainage modelling, applying the GLUE methodology
- 2008
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Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 357:3-4, s. 421-437
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In the present paper an uncertainty analysis on an application of the commercial urban drainage model. MOUSE is conducted. Applying the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology the model. is conditioned on observation time series from two flow gauges as well as the occurrence of combined sewer overflow. The GLUE methodology is used to test different conceptual setups in order to determine if one model, setup gives a better goodness of fit conditional on the observations than the other. Moreover, different methodological investigations of GLUE are conducted in order to test if the uncertainty analysis is unambiguous. It is shown that the GLUE methodology is very applicable in uncertainty analysis of this application of an urban drainage model, although it was shown to be quite difficult to get good fits of the whole time series. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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| 12. |
- van der Perk, M., et al.
(författare)
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Controls on catchment-scale patterns of phosphorus in soil, streambed sediment, and stream water
- 2007
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Ingår i: Journal of Environmental Quality. - : Wiley. - 0047-2425 .- 1537-2537. ; 36, s. 694-708
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Many models of phosphorus (P) transfer at the catchment scale rely on input from generic databases including, amongst others, soil and land use maps. Spatially detailed geochemical data sets have the potential to improve the accuracy of the input parameters of catchment-scale nutrient transfer models. Furthermore, they enable the assessment of the utility of available, generic spatial data sets for the modeling and prediction of soil nutrient status and nutrient transfer at the catchment scale. This study aims to quantify the unique and joint contribution of soil and sediment properties, land cover, and point-source emissions to the spatial variation of P concentrations in soil, streambed sediments, and stream water at the scale of a medium-sized catchment. Soil parent material and soil chemical properties were identified as major factors controlling the catchment-scale spatial variation in soil total P and Olsen P concentrations. Soil type and land cover as derived from the generic spatial database explain 33.7% of the variation in soil total P concentrations and 17.4% of the variation in Olsen P concentrations. Streambed P concentrations are principally related to the major element concentrations in streambed sediment and P delivery from the hillslopes due to sediment erosion. During base flow conditions, the total phosphorus (<0.45 µm) concentrations in stream water are mainly controlled by the concentrations of P and the major elements in the streambed sediment.
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| 13. |
- Vazquez, F, et al.
(författare)
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GLUE Based Assessment on the Overall Predictions of a MIKE SHE Application
- 2009
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Ingår i: Water resources management. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0920-4741 .- 1573-1650. ; 23:7, s. 1325-1349
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach was applied to assess the performance of a distributed catchment model and to estimate prediction limits after conditioning based on observed catchment-wide streamflow. Prediction limits were derived not only for daily streamflow but also for piezometric levels and for extreme events. The latter analysis was carried out considering independent partial duration time series (PDS) obtained from the observed daily streamflow hydrograph. Important data uncertainties were identified. For streamflow the stage-discharge data analysis led to estimate an average data uncertainty of about 3 m(3) s (-aEuro parts per thousand 1). For piezometric levels, data errors were estimated to be in the order of 5 m in average and 10 m at most. The GLUE analysis showed that most of the inspected parameters are insensitive to model performance, except the horizontal and vertical components of the hydraulic conductivity of one of the geological layers that have the most influence on the streamflow model performance in the application catchment. The study revealed a considerable uncertainty attached to the simulation of both high flows and low flows (i.e., in average terms 5 m(3) s (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) before the Bayesian updating of the prediction limits). Similarly, wide prediction intervals were obtained for the piezometric levels in relevant wells, in the order of 3.3 and 1.5 m before and after the Bayesian updating of the prediction limits, respectively. Consequently, the results suggest that, in average terms, the model of the catchment predicts overall outputs within the limitations of the errors in the input variables.
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| 14. |
- Westerberg, Ida, et al.
(författare)
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Response to discussion by Ertsen on Westerberg et al. “Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems".
- 2018
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Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; :63, s. 13–14-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Ertsen discusses the representation of reality and uncertainty in our paper, raising three critical points. In response to the first, we agree that discussion of different interpretations of the concept of uncertainty is important when developing perceptual models – making different uncertainty interpretations explicit was a key motivation behind our method. Secondly, we do not, as Ertsen suggests, deny anyone who is not a “certified” scientist to have relevant knowledge. The elicitation of diverse views by discussing perceptual models is a basis for open discussion and decision making. Thirdly, Ertsen suggests that it is not useful to treat socio-hydrological systems as if they exist. We argue that we act as “pragmatic realists” in most practical applications by treating socio-hydrological systems as an external reality that can be known. But the uncertainty that arises from our knowledge limitations needs to be recognized, as it may impact on practical decision making and associated costs.
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| 15. |
- Westerberg, Ida, et al.
(författare)
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Stage-discharge uncertainty derived with a non-stationary rating curve in the Choluteca River, Honduras
- 2011
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Ingår i: Hydrological Processes. - 0885-6087 .- 1099-1085. ; 25:4, s. 603-613
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Uncertainty in discharge data must be critically assessed before data can be used in, e. g. water resources estimation or hydrological modelling. In the alluvial Choluteca River in Honduras, the river-bed characteristics change over time as fill, scour and other processes occur in the channel, leading to a non-stationary stage-discharge relationship and difficulties in deriving consistent rating curves. Few studies have investigated the uncertainties related to non-stationarity in the stage-discharge relationship. We calculated discharge and the associated uncertainty with a weighted fuzzy regression of rating curves applied within a moving time window, based on estimated uncertainties in the observed rating data. An 18-year-long dataset with unusually frequent ratings (1268 in total) was the basis of this study. A large temporal variability in the stage-discharge relationship was found especially for low flows. The time-variable rating curve resulted in discharge estimate differences of -60 to +90% for low flows and +/- 20% for medium to high flows when compared to a constant rating curve. The final estimated uncertainty in discharge was substantial and the uncertainty limits varied between -43 to +73% of the best discharge estimate. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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