| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar, et al.
(författare)
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Overall, gender and social inequalities in suicide mortality in Iran, 2006-2010: a time trend province-level study.
- 2014
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Ingår i: BMJ Open. - : BMJ. - 2044-6055. ; 4:8, s. 005227-005227
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Suicide is a major global health problem imposing a considerable burden on populations in terms of disability-adjusted life years. There has been an increasing trend in fatal and attempted suicide in Iran over the past few decades. The aim of the current study was to assess overall, gender and social inequalities across Iran's provinces during 2006-2010.
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| 5. |
- Bidgoli, Hossein, et al.
(författare)
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Effect of carboxymethylation conditions on water binding capacity of chitosan-based superabsorbents
- 2010
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Ingår i: Carbohydrate Research. - : Elsevier - Pergamon. - 0008-6215 .- 1873-426X. ; 345:18, s. 2683-2689
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A superabsorbent polymer (SAP) from chitosan was provided via carboxymethylation of chitosan, followed by cross-linking with glutaraldehyde and freeze-drying. This work was focused on an investigation of the effects of monochloroacetic acid (MCAA), sodium hydroxide, and reaction time on preparation of carboxymethylchitosan (CMCS). The CMCS products were characterized using FTIR spectroscopy, and their degrees of substitution (DS) were measured using conductimetry and FTIR analysis. The highest DS value was obtained when the carboxymethylation reaction was carried out using 1.75 g MCAA and 1.75 g NaOH per g of chitosan in 4 h. The water solubilities of the CMCS products at various pHs were also evaluated, and the results indicated a significant impact of the reaction parameters on the solubility of CMCS. The CMCSs with the highest DS value resulted in SAPs having the highest water-binding capacity (WBC). TheWBCof the best SAP measured after 10 minexposure in distilled water, 0.9% NaCl solution, synthetic urine, and artificial blood was 104, 33, 30, and 57 g/g, respectively. The WBC of this SAP at pH 2–9 passed a maximum at pH 6.
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| 6. |
- Haghparast-Bidgoli, Hassan, et al.
(författare)
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Factors affecting hospital length of stay and hospital charges associated with road traffic-related injuries in Iran
- 2013
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Ingår i: BMC Health Services Research. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1472-6963. ; 13, s. Article Number: 281-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are a substantial cause of mortality and disability globally. There is little published information regarding healthcare resource utilization following RTIs, especially in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). The aim of this study was to assess total hospital charges and length of stay (LOS) associated with RTIs in Iran and to explore the association with patients' socio-demographic characteristics, insurance status and injury-related factors (e. g. type of road users and safety equipment). Method: The study was based on the Iranian National Trauma Registry Database (INTRD), which includes data from 14 general hospitals in eight major cities in Iran, for the years 2000 to 2004. 8,356 patients with RTI admitted to the hospitals were included in the current study. The variables extracted for the analysis included total hospital charges and length of stay, age, gender, socio-economic and insurance status, injury characteristics, medical outcome and use of safety equipment among the patients. Univariable analysis using non-parametric methods and multivariable regression analysis were performed to identify the factors associated with total hospital charges and LOS. Results: The mean hospital charges for the patients were 1,115,819 IRR (SD=1,831,647 IRR, US$128 +/- US$210). The mean LOS for the patients was 6.8 (SD =8 days). Older age, being a bicycle rider, higher injury severity and longer LOS were associated with higher hospital charges. Longer LOS was associated with being male, having lower education level, having a medical insurance, being pedestrian or motorcyclist, being a blue-collar worker and having more severe injuries. The reported use of safety equipment was very low and did not have significant effect on the hospital charges and LOS. Conclusion: The study demonstrated that the hospital charges and LOS associated with RTI varied by age, gender, socio-economic status, insurance status, injury characteristics and health outcomes of the patients. The results of the study provide information that can be of importance in the planning and design of road traffic injury control strategies.
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| 7. |
- Haghparast-Bidgoli, Hassan, et al.
(författare)
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Socio-demographic and economics factors associated with suicide mortality in Iran, 2001-2010 : application of a decomposition model
- 2018
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Ingår i: International Journal for Equity in Health. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1475-9276. ; 17:1, s. 1-7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Suicide is a major global health problem, especially among youth. Suicide is known to be associated with a variety of social, economic, political and religious factors, vary across geographical and cultural regions. The current study aimed to investigate the effects of socioeconomic factors on suicide mortality rate across different regions in Iran.METHODS: The data on distribution of population and socio-economic factors (such as unemployment rate, divorce rate, urbanization rate, average household expenditure etc.) at province level were obtained from the Statistical Centre of Iran and the National Organization for Civil Registration. The data on the annual number of deaths caused by suicide in each province was extracted from the published reports of the Iranian Forensic Medicine Organization. We used a decomposition model to distinguish between spatial and temporal variation in suicide mortality.RESULTS: The average rate of suicide mortality was 5.5 per 100,000 population over the study period. Across the provinces (spatial variation), suicide mortality rate was positively associated with household expenditure and the proportion of people aged 15-24 and older than 65 years and was negatively associated with the proportion of literate people. Within the provinces (temporal variation), higher divorce rate was associated with higher suicide mortality. By excluding the outlier provinces, the results showed that in addition to the proportion of people aged 15-24 and older than 65, divorce and unemployment rates were also significant predictors of spatial variation in suicide mortality while divorce rate was associated with higher suicide mortality within provinces.CONCLUSION: The findings indicate that both spatial and temporal variations in suicide mortality rates across the provinces and over time are determined by a number of socio-economic factors. The study provides information that can be of importance in developing preventive strategies.
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| 10. |
- Seyed Jalaleddin, Mousavirad, et al.
(författare)
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A memetic imperialist competitive algorithm with chaotic maps for multi-layer neural network training
- 2019
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Ingår i: International Journal of Bio-Inspired Computation (IJBIC). - : Inderscience Publishers. - 1758-0366 .- 1758-0374. ; 14:4, s. 227-227
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The performance of artificial neural networks (ANNs) is largely dependent on the success of the training process. Gradient descent-based methods are the most widely used training algorithms but have drawbacks such as ending up in local minima. One approach to overcome this is to use population-based algorithms such as the imperialist competitive algorithm (ICA) which is inspired by the imperialist competition between countries. In this paper, we present a new memetic approach for neural network training to improve the efficacy of ANNs. Our proposed approach - memetic imperialist competitive algorithm with chaotic maps (MICA-CM) - is based on a memetic ICA and chaotic maps, which are responsible for exploration of the search space, while back-propagation is used for an effective local search on the best solution obtained by ICA. Experimental results confirm our proposed algorithm to be highly competitive compared to other recently reported methods.
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