| 1. |
- Serge, M. A., et al.
(författare)
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Testing the Effect of Relative Pollen Productivity on the REVEALS Model : A Validated Reconstruction of Europe-Wide Holocene Vegetation
- 2023
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Ingår i: Land. - : MDPI. - 2073-445X. ; 12:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Reliable quantitative vegetation reconstructions for Europe during the Holocene are crucial to improving our understanding of landscape dynamics, making it possible to assess the past effects of environmental variables and land-use change on ecosystems and biodiversity, and mitigating their effects in the future. We present here the most spatially extensive and temporally continuous pollen-based reconstructions of plant cover in Europe (at a spatial resolution of 1 degrees x 1 degrees) over the Holocene (last 11.7 ka BP) using the 'Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Sites' (REVEALS) model. This study has three main aims. First, to present the most accurate and reliable generation of REVEALS reconstructions across Europe so far. This has been achieved by including a larger number of pollen records compared to former analyses, in particular from the Mediterranean area. Second, to discuss methodological issues in the quantification of past land cover by using alternative datasets of relative pollen productivities (RPPs), one of the key input parameters of REVEALS, to test model sensitivity. Finally, to validate our reconstructions with the global forest change dataset. The results suggest that the RPPs.st1 (31 taxa) dataset is best suited to producing regional vegetation cover estimates for Europe. These reconstructions offer a long-term perspective providing unique possibilities to explore spatial-temporal changes in past land cover and biodiversity.
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| 2. |
- Graae, Bente J., et al.
(författare)
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Stay or go - how topographic complexity influences alpine plant population and community responses to climate change
- 2018
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Ingår i: Perspectives in plant ecology, evolution and systematics. - : Elsevier BV. - 1433-8319 .- 1618-0437. ; 30, s. 41-50
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In the face of climate change, populations have two survival options - they can remain in situ and tolerate the new climatic conditions (stay), or they can move to track their climatic niches (go). For sessile and small-stature organisms like alpine plants, staying requires broad climatic tolerances, realized niche shifts due to changing biotic interactions, acclimation through plasticity, or rapid genetic adaptation. Going, in contrast, requires good dispersal and colonization capacities. Neither the magnitude of climate change experienced locally nor the capacities required for staying/going in response to climate change are constant across landscapes, and both aspects may be strongly affected by local microclimatic variation associated with topographic complexity. We combine ideas from population and community ecology to discuss the effects of topographic complexity in the landscape on the immediate stay or go opportunities of local populations and communities, and on the selective pressures that may have shaped the stay or go capacities of the species occupying contrasting landscapes. We demonstrate, using example landscapes of different topographical complexity, how species' thermal niches could be distributed across these landscapes, and how these, in turn, may affect many population and community ecological processes that are related to adaptation or dispersal. Focusing on treeless alpine or Arctic landscapes, where temperature is expected to be a strong determinant, our theorethical framework leads to the hypothesis that populations and communities of topographically complex (rough and patchy) landscapes should be both more resistant and more resilient to climate change than those of topographically simple (flat and homogeneous) landscapes. Our theorethical framework further points to how meta-community dynamics such as mass effects in topographically complex landscapes and extinction lags in simple landscapes, may mask and delay the long-term outcomes of these landscape differences under rapidly changing climates.
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| 3. |
- Kapfer, Jutta, et al.
(författare)
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Fine-scale changes in vegetation composition in a boreal mire over 50 years
- 2011
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Ingår i: Journal of Ecology. - : Wiley. - 0022-0477 .- 1365-2745. ; 99:5, s. 1179-1189
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- 1. In the face of a rapidly changing environment, long-term studies provide important insights into patterns of vegetation and processes of change, but long-term studies are rare for many ecosystems. 2. We studied recent vegetation changes at a fine scale in a Sphagnum-dominated bog in south Sweden by resurveying part of the bog 54 years after the original phytosociological survey. We used an indirect approach to identify changes in vegetation composition in relation to environment because of a lack of permanent sampling units. By applying a weighted averaging technique, we calculated relative changes in species optimum values for different environmental gradients as represented by indicator values for light, temperature, pH, moisture and nutrients. 3. Species composition of the mire vegetation has changed significantly over the past five decades, as indicated by significant changes in species frequencies and species optima for the gradients examined. Species with lower indicator values for moisture and light and higher indicator values for nutrients have become more frequent on the mire. In particular, species of trees and dwarf shrubs increased in frequency, whereas typical mire species decreased (e. g. Trichophorum cespitosum (L.) Hartm.) or disappeared from the study site (e. g. Scheuchzeria palustris L.). 4. Synthesis. Composition of the mire vegetation is found to be dynamic at different temporal and spatial scales. Increased air temperature and nutrient availability in south Sweden over the past few decades may have augmented productivity (e. g. tree growth), resulting in drier and shadier conditions for several species. This study successfully demonstrated the applicability of an indirect approach for detecting long-term vegetation change at a fine scale. This approach is an effective way of using historic and modern phytosociological data sets to detect vegetation and environmental change through time.
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| 4. |
- Lenoir, Jonathan, et al.
(författare)
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Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe
- 2013
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 19:5, s. 1470-1481
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent studies from mountainous areas of small spatial extent (<2500km2) suggest that fine-grained thermal variability over tens or hundreds of metres exceeds much of the climate warming expected for the coming decades. Such variability in temperature provides buffering to mitigate climate-change impacts. Is this local spatial buffering restricted to topographically complex terrains? To answer this, we here study fine-grained thermal variability across a 2500-km wide latitudinal gradient in Northern Europe encompassing a large array of topographic complexities. We first combined plant community data, Ellenberg temperature indicator values, locally measured temperatures (LmT) and globally interpolated temperatures (GiT) in a modelling framework to infer biologically relevant temperature conditions from plant assemblages within <1000-m2 units (community-inferred temperatures: CiT). We then assessed: (1) CiT range (thermal variability) within 1-km2 units; (2) the relationship between CiT range and topographically and geographically derived predictors at 1-km resolution; and (3) whether spatial turnover in CiT is greater than spatial turnover in GiT within 100-km2 units. Ellenberg temperature indicator values in combination with plant assemblages explained 4672% of variation in LmT and 9296% of variation in GiT during the growing season (June, July, August). Growing-season CiT range within 1-km2 units peaked at 6065 degrees N and increased with terrain roughness, averaging 1.97 degrees C (SD=0.84 degrees C) and 2.68 degrees C (SD=1.26 degrees C) within the flattest and roughest units respectively. Complex interactions between topography-related variables and latitude explained 35% of variation in growing-season CiT range when accounting for sampling effort and residual spatial autocorrelation. Spatial turnover in growing-season CiT within 100-km2 units was, on average, 1.8 times greater (0.32 degrees Ckm1) than spatial turnover in growing-season GiT (0.18 degrees Ckm1). We conclude that thermal variability within 1-km2 units strongly increases local spatial buffering of future climate warming across Northern Europe, even in the flattest terrains.
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| 5. |
- Marquer, Laurent, et al.
(författare)
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Holocene changes in vegetation composition in northern Europe: why quantitative pollen-based vegetation reconstructions matter
- 2014
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Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 90, s. 199-216
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present pollen-based reconstructions of the spatio-temporal dynamics of northern European regional vegetation abundance through the Holocene. We apply the Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Sites (REVEALS) model using fossil pollen records from eighteen sites within five modern biomes in the region. The eighteen sites are classified into four time-trajectory types on the basis of principal components analysis of both the REVEALS-based vegetation estimates (RVs) and the pollen percentage (PPs). The four trajectory types are more clearly separated for RVs than PPs. Further, the timing of major Holocene shifts, rates of compositional change, and diversity indices (turnover and evenness) differ between RVs and PPs. The differences are due to the reduction by REVEALS of biases in fossil pollen assemblages caused by different basin size, and inter-taxonomic differences in pollen productivity and dispersal properties. For example, in comparison to the PPs, the RVs show an earlier increase in Corylus and Ulmus in the early-Holocene and a more pronounced increase in grassland and deforested areas since the mid-Holocene. The results suggest that the influence of deforestation and agricultural activities on plant composition and abundance from Neolithic times was stronger than previously inferred from PPs. Relative to PPs, RVs show a more rapid compositional change, a largest decrease in turnover, and less variable evenness in most of northern Europe since 5200 cal yr BP. All these changes are primarily related to the strong impact of human activities on the vegetation. This study demonstrates that RV-based estimates of diversity indices, timing of shifts, and rates of change in reconstructed vegetation provide new insights into the timing and magnitude of major human distribution on Holocene regional, vegetation, feature that are critical in the assessment of human impact on vegetation, land-cover, biodiversity, and climate in the past. (C) Elsevier Ltd.All tights reserved.
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| 6. |
- Marquer, Laurent, et al.
(författare)
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Quantifying the effects of land use and climate on Holocene vegetation in Europe
- 2017
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Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Pergamon Press. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 171, s. 20-37
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Early agriculture can be detected in palaeovegetation records, but quantification of the relative importance of climate and land use in influencing regional vegetation composition since the onset of agriculture is a topic that is rarely addressed. We present a novel approach that combines pollen-based REVEALS estimates of plant cover with climate, anthropogenic land-cover and dynamic vegetation modelling results. This is used to quantify the relative impacts of land use and climate on Holocene vegetation at a sub-continental scale, i.e. northern and western Europe north of the Alps. We use redundancy analysis and variation partitioning to quantify the percentage of variation in vegetation composition explained by the climate and land-use variables, and Monte Carlo permutation tests to assess the statistical significance of each variable. We further use a similarity index to combine pollen based REVEALS estimates with climate-driven dynamic vegetation modelling results. The overall results indicate that climate is the major driver of vegetation when the Holocene is considered as a whole and at the sub-continental scale, although land use is important regionally. Four critical phases of land-use effects on vegetation are identified. The first phase (from 7000 to 6500 BP) corresponds to the early impacts on vegetation of farming and Neolithic forest clearance and to the dominance of climate as a driver of vegetation change. During the second phase (from 4500 to 4000 BP), land use becomes a major control of vegetation. Climate is still the principal driver, although its influence decreases gradually. The third phase (from 2000 to 1500 BP) is characterised by the continued role of climate on vegetation as a consequence of late-Holocene climate shifts and specific climate events that influence vegetation as well as land use. The last phase (from 500 to 350 BP) shows an acceleration of vegetation changes, in particular during the last century, caused by new farming practices and forestry in response to population growth and industrialization. This is a unique signature of anthropogenic impact within the Holocene but European vegetation remains climatically sensitive and thus may continue to respond to ongoing climate change. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 7. |
- Wasof, Safaa, et al.
(författare)
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Disjunct populations of European vascular plant species keep the same climatic niches
- 2015
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Ingår i: Global Ecology and Biogeography. - : Wiley. - 1466-822X .- 1466-8238. ; 24:12, s. 1401-1412
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aim Previous research on how climatic niches vary across species ranges has focused on a limited number of species, mostly invasive, and has not, to date, been very conclusive. Here we assess the degree of niche conservatism between distant populations of native alpine plant species that have been separated for thousands of years. Location European Alps and Fennoscandia. Methods Of the studied pool of 888 terrestrial vascular plant species occurring in both the Alps and Fennoscandia, we used two complementary approaches to test and quantify climatic-niche shifts for 31 species having strictly disjunct populations and 358 species having either a contiguous or a patchy distribution with distant populations. First, we used species distribution modelling to test for a region effect on each species' climatic niche. Second, we quantified niche overlap and shifts in niche width (i.e. ecological amplitude) and position (i.e. ecological optimum) within a bi-dimensional climatic space. Results Only one species (3%) of the 31 species with strictly disjunct populations and 58 species (16%) of the 358 species with distant populations showed a region effect on their climatic niche. Niche overlap was higher for species with strictly disjunct populations than for species with distant populations and highest for arctic-alpine species. Climatic niches were, on average, wider and located towards warmer and wetter conditions in the Alps. Main conclusion Climatic niches seem to be generally conserved between populations that are separated between the Alps and Fennoscandia and have probably been so for 10,000-15,000 years. Therefore, the basic assumption of species distribution models that a species' climatic niche is constant in space and time-at least on time scales 104 years or less-seems to be largely valid for arctic-alpine plants.
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| 8. |
- Birks, H. John B., et al.
(författare)
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One hundred years of Quaternary pollen analysis 1916–2016
- 2018
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Ingår i: Vegetation History and Archaeobotany. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0939-6314 .- 1617-6278. ; 27:2, s. 271-309
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We review the history of Quaternary pollen analysis from 1916 to the present-day, with particular emphasis on methodological and conceptual developments and on the early pioneers of the subject. The history is divided into three phases—the pioneer phase 1916–1950, the building phase 1951–1973, and the mature phase 1974–present-day. We also explore relevant studies prior to Lennart von Post’s seminal lecture in 1916 in Kristiania (Oslo) in an attempt to trace how the idea of Quaternary pollen analysis with quantitative pollen counting and stratigraphical pollen diagrams developed.
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| 9. |
- Bos, Johanna A. A., et al.
(författare)
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Flora, vegetation and climate at Sokli, northeastern Fennoscandia, during the Weichselian Middle Pleniglacial
- 2009
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Ingår i: Boreas. - : Wiley. - 0300-9483 .- 1502-3885. ; 38:2, s. 335-348
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A 2 m thick laminated lacustrine deposit of silt and clay recovered from the high-latitudinal site at Sokli (northern Finland) provides a unique mid-Weichselian fossil record for Fennoscandia. High-resolution botanical and zoological analyses of the lacustrine deposit allow detailed reconstruction of the regional vegetational development and of the history of the lake and the wetland ecosystem within the Sokli basin during the early part of the Weichselian Middle Pleniglacial (=equivalent to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3). The inferred terrestrial vegetation represented by the Sokli MIS 3 sequence (so-called Tulppio Interstadial) was probably low-arctic tundra, treeless but with shrub elements including juniper, willow, dwarf birch, ericoids, lycopods and a rich herb flora with a variety of arctic-alpine taxa and heliophilous, pioneer elements. The presence of herbs such as Rubus chamaemorus, Epilobium palustre, Potentilla palustris and Sphagnum, Drepanocladus and other mosses suggests that the lake was fringed by wet meadows and peatlands or peaty telmatic communities. The distributional ranges of pine and tree birch were probably only a few hundred kilometres south or southeast of Sokli. This is concordant with evidence for the presence of boreal tree taxa during the MIS 3 in the Baltic countries and further east in Europe, but contradicts with the commonly inferred treeless tundra or grass-dominated steppe conditions in central Europe.
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| 10. |
- Engels, Stefan, et al.
(författare)
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Early Weichselian (MIS 5d and 5c) temperatures and environmental changes in northern Fennoscandia as recorded by chironomids and macroremains at Sokli, northeast Finland
- 2010
-
Ingår i: Boreas. - : Wiley. - 0300-9483 .- 1502-3885. ; 39:4, s. 689-704
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A 25-m-long sediment record spanning the time from the Eemian to the Holocene was recovered from Sokli, northeast Finland. This study focuses on a 6-m-long sediment interval that is dated to the Early Weichselian period (MIS 5d and 5c) and consists of lacustrine and fluvial deposits. Using chironomid remains, botanical and zoological macroremains as well as sediment lithology, we were able to reconstruct past changes in the environment, including climate. The results indicate that the site was situated on a flood-plain during the latter stages of MIS 5d (Herning Stadial) and that summer temperatures might have been similar to 6 degrees C lower than at present. Although this value should be treated with caution, as numerical analysis shows that it has a very poor fit-to-temperature, this low reconstructed value concurs with several other reconstructions that are available from western Europe. During MIS 5c (Brorup interstadial), the depositional environment changed into a lake system, initially with stratification of the water and subsequently with complete mixing and a strong influence of streams. Both chironomid-based and macroremain-based temperature inferences indicate past July air temperatures that were significantly higher than at present. This result is in contrast to other (low-resolution) reconstructions from northern Fennoscandia that indicate past temperatures 6-7 degrees C lower than present using fossil coleopteran assemblages. However, several central European sites indicate that there was a phase during the Brorup interstadial that was characterized by high summer temperatures, and a comparison between the high-resolution reconstructions from western Europe and the results presented in this study suggests that the north south July air temperature gradient between the mid- and high-latitudes was much weaker during the Brorup interstadial than it is at present. High solar insolation values (particularly the obliquity) during the Brorup interstadial might explain the low summer temperature gradient over the European continent. A return to fluvial conditions occurred in the upper parts of the sediment sequence, and, after a brief interval of gyttja deposition under cooling conditions, the site became glaciated during MIS 5b.
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| 11. |
- Felde, Vivian A., et al.
(författare)
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Compositional turnover and variation in Eemian pollen sequences in Europe
- 2020
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Ingår i: Vegetation History and Archaeobotany. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0939-6314 .- 1617-6278. ; 29:1, s. 101-109
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Eemian interglacial represents a natural experiment on how past vegetation with negligible human impact responded to amplified temperature changes compared to the Holocene. Here, we assemble 47 carefully selected Eemian pollen sequences from Europe to explore geographical patterns of (1) total compositional turnover and total variation for each sequence and (2) stratigraphical turnover between samples within each sequence using detrended canonical correspondence analysis, multivariate regression trees, and principal curves. Our synthesis shows that turnover and variation are highest in central Europe (47-55 degrees N), low in southern Europe (south of 45 degrees N), and lowest in the north (above 60 degrees N). These results provide a basis for developing hypotheses about causes of vegetation change during the Eemian and their possible drivers.
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| 12. |
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| 13. |
- Giesecke, Thomas, et al.
(författare)
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The pace of Holocene vegetation change : testing for synchronous developments
- 2011
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Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 30:19-20, s. 2805-2814
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Mid to high latitude forest ecosystems have undergone several major compositional changes during the Holocene. The temporal and spatial patterns of these vegetation changes hold potential information to their causes and triggers. Here we test the hypothesis that the timing of vegetation change was synchronous on a sub-continental scale, which implies a common trigger or a step-like change in climate parameters. Pollen diagrams from selected European regions were statistically divided into assemblage zones and the temporal pattern of the zone boundaries analysed. The results show that the temporal pattern of vegetation change was significantly different from random. Times of change cluster around 8.2, 4.8, 3.7, and 1.2 ka, while times of higher than average stability were found around 2.1 and 5.1 ka. Compositional changes linked to the expansion of Corylus avellana and Alnus glutinosa centre around 10.6 and 9.5 ka, respectively. A climatic trigger initiating these changes may have occurred 0.5 to 1 ka earlier, respectively. The synchronous expansion of C avellana and A. glutinosa exemplify that dispersal is not necessarily followed by population expansion. The partly synchronous, partly random expansion of A. glutinosa in adjacent European regions exemplifies that sudden synchronous population expansions are not species specific traits but vary regionally.
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| 14. |
- Githumbi, Esther, et al.
(författare)
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European pollen-based REVEALS land-cover reconstructions for the Holocene : Methodology, mapping and potentials
- 2022
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Ingår i: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 14:4, s. 1581-1619
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Quantitative reconstructions of past land cover are necessary to determine the processes involved in climate-human-land-cover interactions. We present the first temporally continuous and most spatially extensive pollen-based land-cover reconstruction for Europe over the Holocene (last 11g€¯700g€¯calg€¯yrg€¯BP). We describe how vegetation cover has been quantified from pollen records at a 11 spatial scale using the "Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Sites"(REVEALS) model. REVEALS calculates estimates of past regional vegetation cover in proportions or percentages. REVEALS has been applied to 1128 pollen records across Europe and part of the eastern Mediterranean-Black Sea-Caspian corridor (30-75° N, 25° W-50° E) to reconstruct the percentage cover of 31 plant taxa assigned to 12 plant functional types (PFTs) and 3 land-cover types (LCTs). A new synthesis of relative pollen productivities (RPPs) for European plant taxa was performed for this reconstruction. It includes multiple RPP values (≥2 values) for 39 taxa and single values for 15 taxa (total of 54 taxa). To illustrate this, we present distribution maps for five taxa (Calluna vulgaris, Cerealia type (t)., Picea abies, deciduous Quercus t. and evergreen Quercus t.) and three land-cover types (open land, OL; evergreen trees, ETs; and summer-green trees, STs) for eight selected time windows. The reliability of the REVEALS reconstructions and issues related to the interpretation of the results in terms of landscape openness and human-induced vegetation change are discussed. This is followed by a review of the current use of this reconstruction and its future potential utility and development. REVEALS data quality are primarily determined by pollen count data (pollen count and sample, pollen identification, and chronology) and site type and number (lake or bog, large or small, one site vs. multiple sites) used for REVEALS analysis (for each grid cell). A large number of sites with high-quality pollen count data will produce more reliable land-cover estimates with lower standard errors compared to a low number of sites with lower-quality pollen count data. The REVEALS data presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.937075 (Fyfe et al., 2022).
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| 15. |
- Pirzamanbein, Behnaz, et al.
(författare)
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Creating spatially continuous maps of past land cover from point estimates : A new statistical approach applied to pollen data
- 2014
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Ingår i: Ecological Complexity. - : Elsevier BV. - 1476-945X .- 1476-9840. ; 20, s. 127-141
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Reliable estimates of past land cover are critical for assessing potential effects of anthropogenic land-cover changes on past earth surface-climate feedbacks and landscape complexity. Fossil pollen records from lakes and bogs have provided important information on past natural and human-induced vegetation cover. However, those records provide only point estimates of past land cover, and not the spatially continuous maps at regional and sub-continental scales needed for climate modelling. We propose a set of statistical models that create spatially continuous maps of past land cover by combining two data sets: 1) pollen-based point estimates of past land cover (from the REVEALS model) and 2) spatially continuous estimates of past land cover, obtained by combining simulated potential vegetation (from LPJ-GUESS) with an anthropogenic land-cover change scenario (KK10). The proposed models rely on statistical methodology for compositional data and use Gaussian Markov Random Fields to model spatial dependencies in the data. Land-cover reconstructions are presented for three time windows in Europe: 0.05, 0.2, and 6 ka years before present (BP). The models are evaluated through cross-validation, deviance information criteria and by comparing the reconstruction of the 0.05 ka time window to the present-day land-cover data compiled by the European Forest Institute (EFI). For 0.05 ka, the proposed models provide reconstructions that are closer to the EFI data than either the REVEALS- or LPJ-GUESS/KK10-based estimates; thus the statistical combination of the two estimates improves the reconstruction. The reconstruction by the proposed models for 0.2 ka is also good. For 6 ka, however, the large differences between the REVEALS- and LPJ-GUESS/KK10-based estimates reduce the reliability of the proposed models. Possible reasons for the increased differences between REVEALS and LPJ-GUESS/KK10 for older time periods and further improvement of the proposed models are discussed. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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| 16. |
- Salonen, J. Sakari, et al.
(författare)
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Pollen-based palaeoclimate reconstructions over long glacialinterglacial timescales : methodological tests based on the Holocene and MIS 5dc deposits at Sokli, northern Finland
- 2013
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Ingår i: Journal of Quaternary Science. - : Wiley. - 0267-8179 .- 1099-1417. ; 28:3, s. 271-282
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Palaeoclimatic reconstructions over long glacialinterglacial timescales present major methodological challenges, as calibration methods based on modern climate and vegetation patterns may yield biased reconstructions from non-analogue palaeoclimates, such as severely continental glacial periods. In this work, we present pollen-based summer temperature reconstructions based on Holocene and early Weichselian (Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 5dc) deposits at Sokli, northern Finland. We attempt to improve the robustness of reconstructions of continental palaeoclimates by using two calibration sets, with one located in the region surrounding the fossil site and another in a more continental region in northwestern Russia. We assess the reliability of the reconstructions by estimating the compositional fit between fossil and calibration samples and by comparison with independent, plant macrofossil-based reconstructions. We find the fossil samples to fit the extra-regional, high-continentality calibration set better during the early Holocene and MIS 5dc. Especially in MIS 5dc, however, even the high-continentality calibration set fits the fossil samples poorly compared to the fit achieved in the mid and late Holocene. Thus our results highlight the problem of finding applicable calibration data for pre-Holocene periods. We finally discuss the relative strengths and vulnerabilities of different calibration methods in reconstruction of non-analogue palaeoclimates.
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| 17. |
- Salonen, J. Sakari, et al.
(författare)
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The effect of calibration data set selection on quantitative palaeoclimatic reconstructions
- 2013
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Ingår i: The Holocene. - : SAGE Publications. - 0959-6836 .- 1477-0911. ; 23:11, s. 1650-1654
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Quantitative palaeoclimatic reconstructions based on biological fossils are a major source of information on long-term climatic variability. Such reconstructions typically use some kind of a modern calibration data set describing the variation of the studied biological group in present-day climate space. Here, we explore the effect of calibration data set selection on palaeoclimatic reconstructions, by creating alternate calibration data sets via stratified random sampling to reconstruct mean July temperature (T-jul) for four fossil pollen sequences from northern Europe. We show that palaeoclimatic reconstructions using methods based on taxon-response models can be highly sensitive to the calibration data set used. In particular, the absolute reconstructed temperatures show great sensitivity to calibration data selection, which suggests that the absolute values of palaeoclimatic reconstructions may not be robust. By contrast, we find the relative shapes of the reconstructed curves to be more robust to calibration data selection because taxa tend to occupy similar relative locations along the sampled gradient regardless of calibration data set location. Based on this robustness of relative palaeoclimate curves, we suggest a debiasing procedure in which palaeoclimate values are estimated by fixing the relative curve with the modern observed value, thus correcting biases resulting from calibration data selection.
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| 18. |
- Willis, Kathy J., et al.
(författare)
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4 degrees C and beyond: what did this mean for biodiversity in the past?
- 2010
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Ingår i: Systematics and Biodiversity. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1477-2000 .- 1478-0933. ; 8, s. 3-9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How do the predicted climatic changes (IPCC, 2007) for the next century compare in magnitude and rate to those that Earth has previously encountered? Are there comparable intervals of rapid rates of temperature change, sea-level rise and levels of atmospheric CO2 that can be used as analogues to assess possible biotic responses to future change? Or are we stepping into the great unknown? This perspective article focuses on intervals in time in the fossil record when atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased up to 1200 ppmv, temperatures in mid-to high-latitudes increased by greater than 4 degrees C within 60 years, and sea levels rose by up to 3 m higher than present. For these intervals in time, case studies of past biotic responses are presented to demonstrate the scale and impact of the magnitude and rate of such climate changes on biodiversity. We argue that although the underlying mechanisms responsible for these past changes in climate were very different (i.e. natural processes rather than anthropogenic), the rates and magnitude of climate change are similar to those predicted for the future and therefore potentially relevant to understanding future biotic response. What emerges from these past records is evidence for rapid community turnover, migrations, development of novel ecosystems and thresholds from one stable ecosystem state to another, but there is very little evidence for broad-scale extinctions due to a warming world. Based on this evidence from the fossil record, we make four recommendations for future climate-change integrated conservation strategies.
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