| 1. |
- Björkelund, Anders, et al.
(författare)
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On the Integration of Skilled Robot Motions for Productivity in Manufacturing
- 2011
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Ingår i: IEEE International Symposium on Assembly and Manufacturing (ISAM), 2011. - 9781612843438 - 9781612843421 ; , s. 1-9
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Robots used in manufacturing today are tailored to their tasks by system integration based on expert knowledge concerning both production and machine control. For upcoming new generations of even more flexible robot solutions, in applications such as dexterous assembly, the robot setup and programming gets even more challenging. Reuse of solutions in terms of parameters, controls, process tuning, and of software modules in general then gets increasingly important. There has been valuable progress within reuse of automation solutions when machines comply with standards and behave according to nominal models. However, more flexible robots with sensor-based manipulation skills and congnitive functions for human inteaction are far too complex to manage, and solutions are rarely reusable since knowledge is either implicit in imperative software or not captured in machine readable form. We propose techniques that build on existing knowledge by converting structured data into an RDF-based knowledge base. By enhancements of industrial control systems and available engineering tools, such knowledge can be gradually extended as part of the interaction during the definition of the robot task.
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| 2. |
- Olsson, Max, et al.
(författare)
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Factors important for health-related quality of life in men and women : The population based SCAPIS study
- 2023
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 18:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- IntroductionHealth-related quality of life (HRQoL) is essential for human wellbeing, influenced by a complex interplay of factors, and is reported lower in women than men. We aimed to evaluate which factors were the most important for HRQoL in a middle-aged general population.MethodsThis was a cross-sectional, multi-centre study of 29,212 men (48%) and women (52%) aged 50-64 in the general population in Sweden. Physical and mental HRQoL (0-100) was assessed using the Short Form 12 questionnaire, and association was evaluated for 356 variables including demographics, lifestyle, symptoms, physiological measurements, and health conditions. Using machine learning, each variable ' s importance for HRQoL was measured by an importance score, comparable to effect size, and summarised in 54 factors, in men and women separately.ResultsMen and women had similar mean and standard deviation (SD) scores for physical HRQoL (53.4 [SD 8.1] vs 51.4 [9.7]) and mental HRQoL (37.1 [5.0] vs 37.3 [5.4]). The most important factors for physical HRQoL were (importance score) physical activity (40), employment (36), pain (33), sleep (33), and sense of control (26). The most important factors for mental HRQoL were sense of control (18), physical activity (12), depression (12), pain (6), and employment (5).ConclusionsThe factors important for HRQoL identified by this study are likely to be amenable to interventions, and our findings can support prioritising interventions. The identified factors need to be a target even before middle-age to lay the foundation for long and happy lives.
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| 3. |
- Olsson, Max, et al.
(författare)
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Factors most strongly associated with breathlessness in a population aged 50-64 years
- 2024
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Ingår i: ERJ Open Research. - : European Respiratory Society. - 2312-0541. ; 10:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Breathlessness is a troublesome and prevalent symptom in the population, but knowledge of related factors is scarce. The aim of this study was to identify the factors most strongly associated with breathlessness in the general population and to describe the shapes of the associations between the main factors and breathlessness.METHODS: A cross-sectional analysis was carried out of the multicentre population-based Swedish CArdioPulmonary bioImage Study (SCAPIS) of adults aged 50 to 64 years. Breathlessness was defined as a modified Medical Research Council breathlessness rating ≥2. The machine learning algorithm extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) was used to classify participants as either breathless or nonbreathless using 449 factors, including physiological measurements, blood samples, computed tomography cardiac and lung measurements, lifestyle, health conditions and socioeconomics. The strength of the associations between the factors and breathlessness were measured by SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), with higher scores reflecting stronger associations.RESULTS: A total of 28 730 participants (52% women) were included in the study. The strongest associated factors for breathlessness were (in order of magnitude): body mass index ( SHAP score 0.39), forced expiratory volume in 1 s (0.32), physical activity measured by accelerometery (0.27), sleep apnoea (0.22), diffusing lung capacity for carbon monoxide (0.21), self-reported physical activity (0.17), chest pain when hurrying (0.17), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (0.17), recent weight change (0.14) and cough (0.13).CONCLUSION: This large population-based study of men and women aged 50-64 years identified the main factors related to breathlessness that may be prevented or amenable to public health interventions.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- André, Lars, et al.
(författare)
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The prevalence of clinically relevant delayed intracranial hemorrhage in head trauma patients treated with oral anticoagulants is very low: a retrospective cohort register study
- 2024
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Ingår i: Scandinavian Journal of Trauma, Resuscitation and Emergency Medicine. - 1757-7241. ; 32, s. 1-9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BackgroundCurrent guidelines from Scandinavian Neuro Committee mandate a 24-hour observation for head trauma patients on anticoagulants, even with normal initial head CT scans, as a means not to miss delayed intracranial hemorrhages. This study aimed to assess the prevalence, and time to diagnosis, of clinically relevant delayed intracranial hemorrhage in head trauma patients treated with oral anticoagulants.MethodUtilizing comprehensive two-year data from Region Skåne’s emergency departments, which serve a population of 1.3 million inhabitants, this study focused on adult head trauma patients prescribed oral anticoagulants. We identified those with intracranial hemorrhage within 30 days, defining delayed intracranial hemorrhage as a bleeding not apparent on their initial CT head scan. These cases were further defined as clinically relevant if associated with mortality, any intensive care unit admission, or neurosurgery.ResultsOut of the included 2,362 head injury cases (median age 84, 56% on a direct acting oral anticoagulant), five developed delayed intracranial hemorrhages. None of these five cases underwent neurosurgery nor were admitted to an intensive care unit. Only two cases (0.08%, 95% confidence interval [0.01–0.3%]) were classified as clinically relevant, involving subdural hematomas in patients aged 82 and 87 years, who both subsequently died. The diagnosis of these delayed intracranial hemorrhages was made at 4 and 7 days following initial presentation to the emergency department.ConclusionIn patients with head trauma, on oral anticoagulation, the incidence of clinically relevant delayed intracranial hemorrhage was found to be less than one in a thousand, with detection occurring four days or later after initial presentation. This challenges the effectiveness of the 24-hour observation period recommended by the Scandinavian Neurotrauma Committee guidelines, suggesting a need to reassess these guidelines to optimise care and resource allocation.
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| 6. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(författare)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5–22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3– 19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8– 144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 7. |
- Björkelund, Anders, et al.
(författare)
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A high-performance syntactic and semantic dependency parser
- 2010
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Ingår i: [Host publication title missing]. ; , s. 33-36
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- This demonstration presents a highperformance syntactic and semantic dependency parser. The system consists of a pipeline of modules that carry out the tokenization, lemmatization, part-of-speech tagging, dependency parsing, and semantic role labeling of a sentence. The system’s two main components draw on improved versions of a state-of-the-art dependency parser (Bohnet, 2009) and semantic role labeler (Björkelund et al., 2009) developed independently by the authors. The system takes a sentence as input and produces a syntactic and semantic annotation using the CoNLL 2009 format. The processing time needed for a sentence typically ranges from 10 to 1000 milliseconds. The predicate–argument structures in the final output are visualized in the form of segments, which are more intuitive for a user.
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| 8. |
- Björkelund, Anders, et al.
(författare)
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Exploring Lexicalized Features for Coreference Resolution
- 2011
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Ingår i: CoNLL 2011 - 15th Conference on Computational Natural Language Learning: Shared Task, Proceedings. - 9781937284084 ; , s. 45-50
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper, we describe a coreference solver based on the extensive use of lexical features and features extracted from dependency graphs of the sentences. The solver uses Soon et al. (2001)'s classical resolution algorithm based on a pairwise classification of the mentions. We applied this solver to the closed track of the CoNLL 2011 shared task (Pradhan et al., 2011). We carried out a systematic optimization of the feature set using cross-validation that led us to retain 24 features. Using this set, we reached a MUC score of 58.61 on the test set of the shared task. We analyzed the impact of the features on the development set and we show the importance of lexicalization as well as of properties related to dependency links in coreference resolution.
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| 9. |
- Björkelund, Anders, et al.
(författare)
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Knowledge and Skill Representations for Robotized Production
- 2011
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the 18th IFAC World Congress, 2011. - 1474-6670. - 9783902661937 ; , s. 8999-9004
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Model-based systems in control are a means to utilize efficiently human knowledge and achieve high performance. While models consisting of formalized knowledge are used during the engineering step, running systems usually do not contain a high-level, symbolic representation of the control and most of its properties, typically named numerical parameters. On a system level and beyond the plant data, there is also a need to represent the meaning of the data such that deployment and fault analysis could be augmented with partly automated inference based on the semantics of the data. To that end, we extended the formalized knowledge traditionally used in control to include the control purpose, engineering assumption, quality, involved state machines, and so on. We then represented the control semantics in a format that allows an easier extraction of information using querying and reasoning. It aims at making knowledge in control engineering reusable so that it can be shipped together with the control systems. We implemented prototypes that include automatic conversion of plant data from AutomationML into RDF triples, as well as the automated extraction of control properties, the conversion of parameters, and their storage in the same triple store. Although these techniques are standard within the semantic web community, we believe that our robotic prototypes for semantic control represent a novel approach.
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| 10. |
- Björkelund, Anders, et al.
(författare)
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Knowledge for Intelligent Industrial Robots
- 2012
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Ingår i: AAAI Technical Report SS-12-02, Designing Intelligent Robots: Reintegrating AI. - 9781577355519 ; SS-12-02
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper describes an attempt to provide more intelligence to industrial robotics and automation systems. We develop an architecture to integrate disparate knowledge representations used in different places in robotics and automation. This knowledge integration framework, a possibly distributed entity, abstracts the components used in design or production as data sources, and provides a uniform access to them via standard interfaces. Representation is based on the ontology formalizing the process, product and resource triangle, where skills are considered the common element of the three. Production knowledge is being collected now and a preliminary version of KIF undergoes verification.
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| 11. |
- Björkelund, Anders, et al.
(författare)
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Machine learning compared with rule‐in/rule‐out algorithms and logistic regression to predict acute myocardial infarction based on troponin T concentrations
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of the American College of Emergency Physicians Open. - Hoboken, NJ : John Wiley & Sons. - 2688-1152. ; 2:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- AbstractObjectiveComputerized decision-support tools may improve diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) among patients presenting with chest pain at the emergency department (ED). The primary aim was to assess the predictive accuracy of machine learning algorithms based on paired high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) concentrations with varying sampling times, age, and sex in order to rule in or out AMI.MethodsIn this register-based, cross-sectional diagnostic study conducted retrospectively based on 5695 chest pain patients at 2 hospitals in Sweden 2013–2014 we used 5-fold cross-validation 200 times in order to compare the performance of an artificial neural network (ANN) with European guideline-recommended 0/1- and 0/3-hour algorithms for hs-cTnT and with logistic regression without interaction terms. Primary outcome was the size of the intermediate risk group where AMI could not be ruled in or out, while holding the sensitivity (rule-out) and specificity (rule-in) constant across models.ResultsANN and logistic regression had similar (95%) areas under the receiver operating characteristics curve. In patients (n = 4171) where the timing requirements (0/1 or 0/3 hour) for the sampling were met, using ANN led to a relative decrease of 9.2% (95% confidence interval 4.4% to 13.8%; from 24.5% to 22.2% of all tested patients) in the size of the intermediate group compared to the recommended algorithms. By contrast, using logistic regression did not substantially decrease the size of the intermediate group.ConclusionMachine learning algorithms allow for flexibility in sampling and have the potential to improve risk assessment among chest pain patients at the ED.
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| 12. |
- Björkelund, Anders, et al.
(författare)
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Multilingual semantic role labeling
- 2009
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Ingår i: Proceedings of The Thirteenth Conference on Computational Natural Language Learning (CoNLL-2009). ; , s. 43-48
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper describes our contribution to the semantic role labeling task (SRL-only) of the CoNLL-2009 shared task in the closed challenge(Hajic et al., 2009). Our system consists of a pipeline of independent, local classifiers that identify the predicate sense, the arguments of the predicates, and the argument labels. Using these local models, we carried out a beam search to generate a pool of candidates. We then reranked the candidates using a joint learning approach that combines the local models and proposition features. To address the multilingual nature of the data, we implemented a feature selection procedure that systematically explored the feature space, yielding significant gains over a standard set of features. Our system achieved the second best semantic score overall with an average labeled semantic F1 of 80.31. It obtained the best F1 score on the Chinese and German data and the second best one on English.
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| 13. |
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| 14. |
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| 15. |
- de Capretz, Pontus Olsson, et al.
(författare)
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Machine learning for early prediction of acute myocardial infarction or death in acute chest pain patients using electrocardiogram and blood tests at presentation
- 2023
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Ingår i: BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making. - London : BioMed Central (BMC). - 1472-6947. ; 23:1, s. 1-10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: In the present study, we aimed to evaluate the performance of machine learning (ML) models for identification of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) or death within 30 days among emergency department (ED) chest pain patients. Methods and results: Using data from 9519 consecutive ED chest pain patients, we created ML models based on logistic regression or artificial neural networks. Model inputs included sex, age, ECG and the first blood tests at patient presentation: High sensitivity TnT (hs-cTnT), glucose, creatinine, and hemoglobin. For a safe rule-out, the models were adapted to achieve a sensitivity > 99% and a negative predictive value (NPV) > 99.5% for 30-day AMI/death. For rule-in, we set the models to achieve a specificity > 90% and a positive predictive value (PPV) of > 70%. The models were also compared with the 0 h arm of the European Society of Cardiology algorithm (ESC 0 h); An initial hs-cTnT < 5 ng/L for rule-out and ≥ 52 ng/L for rule-in. A convolutional neural network was the best model and identified 55% of the patients for rule-out and 5.3% for rule-in, while maintaining the required sensitivity, specificity, NPV and PPV levels. ESC 0 h failed to reach these performance levels. Discussion: An ML model based on age, sex, ECG and blood tests at ED arrival can identify six out of ten chest pain patients for safe early rule-out or rule-in with no need for serial blood tests. Future studies should attempt to improve these ML models further, e.g. by including additional input data. © 2023, The Author(s).
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| 16. |
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| 17. |
- Ekelund, Ulf, et al.
(författare)
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The skåne emergency medicine (SEM) cohort
- 2024
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Ingår i: Scandinavian Journal of Trauma, Resuscitation and Emergency Medicine. - London : BioMed Central (BMC). - 1757-7241. ; 32, s. 1-8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: In the European Union alone, more than 100 million people present to the emergency department (ED) each year, and this has increased steadily year-on-year by 2-3%. Better patient management decisions have the potential to reduce ED crowding, the number of diagnostic tests, the use of inpatient beds, and healthcare costs.METHODS: We have established the Skåne Emergency Medicine (SEM) cohort for developing clinical decision support systems (CDSS) based on artificial intelligence or machine learning as well as traditional statistical methods. The SEM cohort consists of 325 539 unselected unique patients with 630 275 visits from January 1st, 2017 to December 31st, 2018 at eight EDs in the region Skåne in southern Sweden. Data on sociodemographics, previous diseases and current medication are available for each ED patient visit, as well as their chief complaint, test results, disposition and the outcome in the form of subsequent diagnoses, treatments, healthcare costs and mortality within a follow-up period of at least 30 days, and up to 3 years.DISCUSSION: The SEM cohort provides a platform for CDSS research, and we welcome collaboration. In addition, SEM's large amount of real-world patient data with almost complete short-term follow-up will allow research in epidemiology, patient management, diagnostics, prognostics, ED crowding, resource allocation, and social medicine.
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| 18. |
- Haziri, Donika, et al.
(författare)
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Characteristics and severe outcomes of patients presenting to the Emergency Department with dizziness
- 2022
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Serious outcomes as stroke, arrythmia and death are relatively frequent in patients presenting with dizziness. Within 30 days almost one in five patients re-attended the ED due to dizziness and 2,8% needed ED evaluation due to a fall. Decision support tools to help identify serious conditions and predict preventable falls in ED patients with dizziness are needed.
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| 19. |
- Hellgren, Margareta, 1955, et al.
(författare)
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Feasibility of the FINDRISC questionnaire to identify individuals with impaired glucose tolerance in Swedish primary care. A cross-sectional population-based study.
- 2012
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Ingår i: Diabetic Medicine. - : Wiley. - 1464-5491 .- 0742-3071. ; 29:12, s. 1501-1505
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aim: To evaluate the performance of the FINDRISC questionnaire as a tool to recruit individuals with impaired glucose tolerance for lifestyle intervention programmes. Methods: A cross-sectional population-based study in primary Health Care Centres in a middle-sized Swedish town. All 9734 individuals, aged 35–75 years, living within a defined area, were invited by mail to fill in and return the FINDRISC questionnaire. Participants with a risk score ≥ 15 (n = 525) were invited to perform an oral glucose tolerance test while those with known diabetes were excluded. Results: In total, 5452 questionnaires (58%) were returned and revealed a mean risk-score of 8.5 ± 4.5 (mean ± SD). We found that 525 participants had a risk-score ≥ 15 and 302 (58%) were further examined with an oral glucose tolerance testing (OGTT). Among them we detected 11% with previously undiagnosed Type 2 diabetes, 16% with impaired glucose tolerance and 29% with impaired fasting glucose. A FINDRISC score ≥ 15 was associated with a positive predictive value of 55% for impaired glucose metabolism (impaired fasting glucose + impaired glucose tolerance + Type 2 diabetes) and of 16% for impaired glucose tolerance, respectively. The positive predictive value for impaired glucose tolerance did not increase to more than 17% when choosing the cut-point 17, while there was a significant increase in the positive predictive value for impaired glucose metabolism (70%). Conclusions: The FINDRISC questionnaire is a useful instrument for identification of individuals with impaired glucose metabolism but seems less effective for detection of individuals with impaired glucose tolerance. Strategies to find individuals with impaired glucose tolerance for implementation of lifestyle changes in primary care should therefore be developed further.
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| 20. |
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| 21. |
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| 22. |
- Nyström, Axel, et al.
(författare)
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Prior electrocardiograms not useful for machine learning predictions of major adverse cardiac events in emergency department chest pain patients
- 2024
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Ingår i: Journal of Electrocardiology. - Philadelphia, PA : Elsevier. - 0022-0736 .- 1532-8430. ; 82, s. 42-51
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- At the emergency department (ED), it is important to quickly and accurately determine which patients are likely to have a major adverse cardiac event (MACE). Machine learning (ML) models can be used to aid physicians in detecting MACE, and improving the performance of such models is an active area of research. In this study, we sought to determine if ML models can be improved by including a prior electrocardiogram (ECG) from each patient. To that end, we trained several models to predict MACE within 30 days, both with and without prior ECGs, using data collected from 19,499 consecutive patients with chest pain, from five EDs in southern Sweden, between the years 2017 and 2018. Our results indicate no improvement in AUC from prior ECGs. This was consistent across models, both with and without additional clinical input variables, for different patient subgroups, and for different subsets of the outcome. While contradicting current best practices for manual ECG analysis, the results are positive in the sense that ML models with fewer inputs are more easily and widely applicable in practice. © 2023 The Authors
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| 23. |
- Persson, Jacob, et al.
(författare)
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A knowledge integration framework for robotics
- 2010
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Ingår i: ISR/ROBOTIK 2010 : Proceedings for the joint conference of ISR 2010 (41st International Symposium on Robotics) and ROBOTIK 2010 (6th German Conference on Robotics). - 9783800732739
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper describes a knowledge integration framework for robotics, whose goal is to represent, store, adapt, and distribute knowledge across engineering platforms. The architecture abstracts the components as data sources, where data are available in the AutomationML data exchange format. AutomationML is an on-going standard initiative that aims at unifying data representation and APIs used by engineering tools. A triplification procedure converts native formats used by data sources into RDF triples and then exposes them via a SPARQL endpoint. The triplification step has been implemented for the CAEX top level and logic data parts of AutomationML, where the conversion uses XSLT rules.
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| 24. |
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| 25. |
- Sundström, Johan, Professor, 1971-, et al.
(författare)
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Rationale for a Swedish cohort consortium
- 2019
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Ingår i: Upsala Journal of Medical Sciences. - : Taylor & Francis Group. - 0300-9734 .- 2000-1967. ; 124:1, s. 21-28
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We herein outline the rationale for a Swedish cohort consortium, aiming to facilitate greater use of Swedish cohorts for world-class research. Coordination of all Swedish prospective population-based cohorts in a common infrastructure would enable more precise research findings and facilitate research on rare exposures and outcomes, leading to better utilization of study participants' data, better return of funders' investments, and higher benefit to patients and populations. We motivate the proposed infrastructure partly by lessons learned from a pilot study encompassing data from 21 cohorts. We envisage a standing Swedish cohort consortium that would drive development of epidemiological research methods and strengthen the Swedish as well as international epidemiological competence, community, and competitiveness.
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| 26. |
- Thorn, Jörgen, 1965, et al.
(författare)
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Läget för svensk allmänmedicinsk forskning
- 2008
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Ingår i: Läkartidningen. - 0023-7205. ; 105:40
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Bredden på forskningen vid landets allmänmedicinska enheter är stor, men överlappningen mellan de olika universitetsorterna är betydande. En mycket liten del av regionala och nationella forskningsmedel går till allmänmedicinsk forskning. Ett mindre projektarbete har nyligen blivit obligatoriskt för alla som genomför specialistutbildning inom allmänmedicin. Sjukvårdshuvudmännen bör inrätta fler forskar-ST-tjänster i primärvården och tydligare stödja allmänmedicinska doktorander i deras avhandlingsarbeten
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| 27. |
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| 28. |
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| 29. |
- Zhou, Bin, et al.
(författare)
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Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: A pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier B.V.. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 387:10027, s. 1513-1530
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are aff ecting the number of adults with diabetes.Methods: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue.Findings: We used data from 751 studies including 4372000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-17.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target.Interpretation: Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults aff ected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.
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