| 1. |
- Almgren, Magnus, 1972, et al.
(author)
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RICS-el : Building a national testbed for research and training on SCADA security (short paper)
- 2019
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In: Lect. Notes Comput. Sci.. - Cham : Springer Nature. ; 11260 LNCS, s. 219-225, s. 219-225
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Trends show that cyber attacks targeting critical infrastructures are increasing, but security research for protecting such systems are challenging. There is a gap between the somewhat simplified models researchers at universities can sustain contra the complex systems at infrastructure owners that seldom can be used for direct research. There is also a lack of common datasets for research benchmarking. This paper presents a national experimental testbed for security research within supervisory control and data acquisition systems (SCADA), accessible for both research training and experiments. The virtualized testbed has been designed and implemented with both vendor experts and security researchers to balance the goals of realism with specific research needs. It includes a real SCADA product for energy management, a number of network zones, substation nodes, and a simulated power system. This environment enables creation of scenarios similar to real world utility scenarios, attack generation, development of defence mechanisms, and perhaps just as important: generating open datasets for comparative research evaluation.
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| 2. |
- Andersch-Björkman, Ylva, et al.
(author)
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Large scale identification of proteins, mucins, and their O-glycosylation in the endocervical mucus during the menstrual cycle.
- 2007
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In: Molecular & cellular proteomics : MCP. - 1535-9476. ; 6:4, s. 708-16
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The mucus filling the human cervical opening blocks the entry to the uterus, but this has to be relative and allow for the sperm to penetrate at ovulation. We studied this mucus, its content of proteins and mucins, and the mucin O-glycosylation in cervical secretions before, during, and after ovulation. Cervical mucosal secretions from 12 subjects were collected, reduced-alkylated, separated with polyacrylamide or agarose/polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis, and stained with silver, Alcian blue, or Coomassie Blue stain. Protein and mucin bands from before and during ovulation were digested and subsequently analyzed by nano-LC-FT-ICR MS and MS/MS. We identified 194 proteins after searches against the NCBI non-redundant protein database and an in-house mucin database. Three gel-forming (MUC5B, MUC5AC, and MUC6) and two transmembrane mucins (MUC16 and MUC1) were identified. For the analysis of mucin O-glycosylation, separated mucins from six individuals were blotted to PVDF membranes, and the O-glycans were released by reductive beta-elimination and analyzed with capillary HPLC-MS and -MS/MS. At least 50 neutral, sialic acid-, and sulfate-containing oligosaccharides were found. An increase of GlcNAc-6GalNAcol Core 2 structures and a relative decrease of NeuAc residues are typical for ovulation, and NeuAc-6GalNAcol and NeuAc-3Gal- epitopes are typical for the non-ovulatory phases. The cervical mucus at ovulation is thus characterized by a relative increase in neutral fucosylated oligosaccharides. This comprehensive characterization of the mucus during the menstrual cycle suggests mucin glycosylation as the major alteration at ovulation, but the relation to the altered physicochemical properties and sperm penetrability is still not understood.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Björkman-Burtscher, Isabella, et al.
(author)
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Proton MR spectroscopy and preoperative diagnostic accuracy: an evaluation of intracranial mass lesions characterized by stereotactic biopsy findings
- 2000
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In: AJNR. - 1936-959X. ; 21:1, s. 84-93
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: MR imaging has made it easier to distinguish among the different types of intracranial mass lesions. Nevertheless, it is sometimes impossible to base a diagnosis solely on clinical and neuroradiologic findings, and, in these cases, biopsy must be performed. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the hypothesis that proton MR spectroscopy is able to improve preoperative diagnostic accuracy in cases of intracranial tumors and may therefore obviate stereotactic biopsy. METHODS: Twenty-six patients with intracranial tumors underwent MR imaging, proton MR spectroscopy, and stereotactic biopsy. MR spectroscopic findings were evaluated for the distribution pattern of pathologic spectra (NAA/Cho ratio < 1) across the lesion and neighboring tissue, for signal ratios in different tumor types, and for their potential to improve preoperative diagnostic accuracy. RESULTS: Gliomas and lymphomas showed pathologic spectra outside the area of contrast enhancement while four nonastrocytic circumscribed tumors (meningioma, pineocytoma, metastasis, and germinoma) showed no pathologic spectra outside the region of enhancement. No significant correlation was found between different tumor types and signal ratios. MR spectroscopy improved diagnostic accuracy by differentiating infiltrative from circumscribed tumors; however, diagnostic accuracy was not improved in terms of differentiating the types of infiltrative or circumscribed lesions. CONCLUSION: MR spectroscopy can improve diagnostic accuracy by differentiating circumscribed brain lesions from histologically infiltrating processes, which may be difficult or impossible solely on the basis of clinical or neuroradiologic findings.
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| 5. |
- Björkman, Gunnar, et al.
(author)
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Information system architectures in electrical distribution utilities
- 2010
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In: Proceedings of the 9th Nordic Electricity Distribution and Asset Management Conference.
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Computerized control systems have been used in many years to supervise and control power distribution. These systems, which often are referred to as SCADA (Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition) systems, have in recent been more and more interconnected to other systems in recent years. In modern utilities various kinds of data are exchanged between the distribution management systems and the administrative systems located in the office network. For example are operational statistics, trouble reports and switch orders often communicated between the office systems and the systems inside the control center. This paper desccribes a survey over state-of-practice architectures in electrical distribution utilities. A set of system-services have been identified together with the interfaces that typically exists between these services. How these services are located within different zones within utilities is also identified. The set services, the data flows, and the location of these has been reviewed and validated by vendors of SCADA systems in the electric utility industry.
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| 6. |
- Björkman, Gunnar, et al.
(author)
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SCADA system architectures
- 2010
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Other publication (other academic/artistic)abstract
- The aim of deliverable 2.3 in the VIKING is to catalogue architecture patterns or reference architectures, i.e. commonly deployed solutions, for SCADA systems. These patterns are represented as a set of descriptions that capture the vast majority of SCADA systems’ architecture on a high level. The patterns developed in this report focus on: - Software services in SCADA systems and software services which SCADA systems exchange data with. - Data flows among these services. - How services are placed in different security zones (network zones). The purpose of the SCADA architecture patterns is to clarify how SCADA systems are commonly designed by employing a stringent model framework. Internal in the project the SCADA patterns will be used to develop SCADA system design models that reflect some typical systems deployed in industry. These models will be used in other work packages and deliverables in the VIKING project.
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| 7. |
- Björkman, Per, et al.
(author)
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Assessment of liver disease and biochemical and immunological markers in Swedish blood donors with isolated GB virus C/hepatitis G virus viremia
- 2000
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In: Vox Sanguinis. - 1423-0410. ; 78:3, s. 143-148
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: To investigate signs of liver disease, and biochemical and immunological markers in blood donors with isolated GBV-C/HGV viremia. METHODS: Eighteen donors with isolated GBV-C/HGV viremia were followed up 3-5 years after initial identification. Testing for GBV-C/HGV RNA, GBV-C/HGV-E2 antibodies and a range of biochemical and immunological tests was performed. Thirteen donors consented to liver biopsy. RESULTS: Twelve donors remained GBV-C/HGV viremic at follow-up. Five donors had developed E2 antibodies. Liver biopsies revealed mild portal inflammatory lesions in 6/11 individuals with persistent viremia, and steatosis in 10/13 biopsied donors. CONCLUSION: Steatosis and mild portal inflammatory lesions were found in liver biopsies from several blood donors with isolated GBV-C/HGV viremia.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Cavalli-Björkman, Görel, 1941-, et al.
(author)
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Blomsterspråk ...
- 2007
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Book (other academic/artistic)
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| 10. |
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| 11. |
- Dán, György, et al.
(author)
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Challenges in Power System Information Security
- 2012
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In: IEEE Security and Privacy. - : IEEE Computer Society. - 1540-7993 .- 1558-4046. ; 10:4, s. 62-70
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Achieving all-encompassing component-level security in power system IT infrastructures is difficult, owing to its cost and potential performance implications.
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| 12. |
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| 13. |
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| 14. |
- Elvstam, Olof, et al.
(author)
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Associations between HIV viremia during antiretroviral therapy and cardiovascular disease
- 2022
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In: AIDS (London, England). - 1473-5571. ; 36:13, s. 1829-1834
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between HIV viremia exposure during antiretroviral therapy (ART) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.DESIGN: Nationwide observational cohort.METHODS: Participants (age > 15 years) from the Swedish nationwide InfCareHIV register initiating ART 1996-2017 were categorized in a time-updated manner into four viremia categories, starting from 12 months after ART initiation: suppression (<50 copies/ml), low-level viremia (50-199 copies/ml and 200-999 copies/ml, respectively), and high-level viremia (≥1000 copies/ml). In addition, cumulative viremia was estimated as the area under the log viral load (VL) curve. Proportional subhazard models adjusted for sex, age, pre-ART CD4 and VL, injection drug use, and country of birth were used to analyze the association between viremia exposure and CVD risk (ischemic heart disease, stroke, and heart failure; data obtained by linkage to national registers), accounting for the competing risk of non-CVD death.RESULTS: In all, 337 cases of CVD were observed during 44 937 person-years of follow-up (n = 6562). Higher viremia exposure was associated with CVD, both when parameterized as cumulative viremia (adjusted subhazard ratio [aSHR] per 1 log10 copy × year/ml, 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-1.05) and as viremia category (aSHR for high-level viremia versus suppression, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.03-2.05). We observed no association between CVD and low-level viremia compared with those with suppression.CONCLUSIONS: Higher exposure to HIV viremia was linked to CVD in ART recipients, whereas no increased risk was detected for people with low-level viremia compared with viral suppression. Causal inference is limited by the observational nature of this study.
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| 15. |
- Jerkeman, Anna, et al.
(author)
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Chronic hepatitis C in Swedish subjects receiving opiate substitution therapy-Factors associated with advanced fibrosis
- 2014
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In: Scandinavian Journal of Infectious Diseases. - : Informa Healthcare. - 0036-5548 .- 1651-1980. ; 46, s. 340-347
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Opiate substitution therapy (OST) reduces the risk of death from directly drug-related causes in heroin users, allowing other chronic health problems to emerge. People who inject drugs (PWID) are exposed to hepatitis C virus (HCV), with an associated risk of chronic liver disease. We investigated HCV prevalence and liver-related morbidity in a cohort of OST recipients, and analyzed factors associated with significant hepatic fibrosis. Methods: All patients registered on 1 April 2008 in 4 clinics providing OST in the 3 largest cities in Sweden were eligible for inclusion. HCV viremic subjects were evaluated for fibrosis stage by liver biopsy, transient elastometry (TE), and/or a biochemical fibrosis index (Göteborg University Cirrhosis Index; GUCI). Factors associated with severity of fibrosis were determined by logistic regression analysis. Results: Out of 524 eligible patients, 277 consented to enrolment. Two hundred and thirty-six subjects (88%) were anti-HCV-positive, and 162 of these were viremic (69%). Significant liver fibrosis (defined as Ishak stages F3-F6, TE value ≥ 8.85 kPa, or GUCI > 0.33) was found in 69 out of 103 (67%) tested viremic patients, and was associated with alcohol intake (p = 0.03), higher body mass index (BMI; p = 0.04), and the presence of anti-HBc antibodies (indicating exposure to hepatitis B virus (HBV); p = 0.02). Conclusions: Significant liver fibrosis was detected in two-thirds of HCV viremic OST recipients in this cohort, and was associated with alcohol use, high BMI, and exposure to HBV. These findings indicate that the management of HCV and associated risk factors should be emphasized in Swedish OST programs. © 2014 Informa Healthcare.
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| 16. |
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| 17. |
- Johansen, Torbjörn, et al.
(author)
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Multi-attribute topology optimization of frame vehicle structures
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Other publication (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Topology optimization of beam structures is considered in this paper where we also introduce cost as a state in addition to the structural properties such as weight and compliance. Cost for beams is here assumed to be composed by material cost and detail cost. An example structure is thoroughly evaluated in order to examine the total design space of topologies for the structure. A method to find a less costly structure is discussed and an application example is shown.
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| 18. |
- Korman, Matus, 1985-, et al.
(author)
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Analyzing the effectiveness of attack countermeasures in a SCADA system
- 2017
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In: Proceedings - 2017 2nd Workshop on Cyber-Physical Security and Resilience in Smart Grids, CPSR-SG 2017 (part of CPS Week). - New York, NY, USA : Association for Computing Machinery, Inc. - 9781450349789 ; , s. 73-78
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The SCADA infrastructure is a key component for power grid operations. Securing the SCADA infrastructure against cyber intrusions is thus vital for a well-functioning power grid. However, the task remains a particular challenge, not the least since not all available security mechanisms are easily deployable in these reliability-critical and complex, multi-vendor environments that host modern systems alongside legacy ones, to support a range of sensitive power grid operations. This paper examines how effective a few countermeasures are likely to be in SCADA environments, including those that are commonly considered out of bounds. The results show that granular network segmentation is a particularly effective countermeasure, followed by frequent patching of systems (which is unfortunately still difficult to date). The results also show that the enforcement of a password policy and restrictive network configuration including whitelisting of devices contributes to increased security, though best in combination with granular network segmentation.
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| 19. |
- Larsson, Mats B. O., et al.
(author)
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Assessment of Social Impact Costs and Social Impact Magnitude from Breakdowns in Critical Infrastructures
- 2013
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In: Critical Information Infrastructures Security. - Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin/Heidelberg. - 9783642414848 ; , s. 240-251
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The purpose of this paper is to describe a new and innovative method for the calculation of societal consequences from breakdowns in critical infrastructures. Both a Social Impact Cost is calculated as lost Gross Domestic Product and non-economic consequences are quantified. For the non-economic consequences a new measure is introduced called Social Impact Magnitude that resembles the Richter scale. The paper describes the methods used and the design of the software tool developed for this purpose. The second part of the paper includes some practical examples how the societal consequences have been calculated for a number of power outage scenarios. Future potential development to cover other types of critical infrastructures and dependencies between infrastructures are indicated at the end.
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| 20. |
- Lindh, Magnus, 1960, et al.
(author)
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Dynamic tailoring of treatment durations improves efficiency of hepatitis C treatment with pegylated interferon and ribavirin
- 2013
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In: Journal of Viral Hepatitis. - : Wiley. - 1352-0504 .- 1365-2893. ; 20:4
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The treatment durations for hepatitis C are guided by the analysis of hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA in blood at certain time points. This multicentre, randomized open label trial evaluated the utility and performance of individualized treatment durations guided by viral decline rates in 103 patients with HCV genotype 1 infection. Pegylated interferon 2a and ribavirin were given as standard of care (SOC) for 24, 48 or 72 weeks or as dynamic treatment (DT) for 24–72 weeks. The DT duration was based on the time point when log HCV RNA would reach 0 log copies/mL, as estimated by the second-phase decline. The rate of sustained virologic response was 63% for SOC and 54% for DT, but this difference was not significant in multiple regression analysis taking predictive factors such as interleukin-28B genotypes, age and baseline viremia into account (P = 0.45). The mean required treatment time per cured patient was 51 weeks for DT as compared with 58 weeks for SOC (P = 0.22) when given per protocol (n = 95) and was significantly shorter (42 vs 51 weeks) among patients who achieved undetectable HCV RNA (P = 0.01). We conclude that DT was feasible and increased efficiency. The estimated time point for 0 log viral copies/mL is a new and quantitative response variable, which may be used as a complement to the qualitative variable rapid virologic response. The outcome parameter treatment weeks per cured patient could become a useful tool for comparing treatment efficiency also in the era of directly acting antivirals.
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| 21. |
- Löve, Askell, et al.
(author)
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Comprehensive CT Evaluation in Acute Ischemic Stroke: Impact on Diagnosis and Treatment Decisions.
- 2011
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In: Stroke Research and Treatment. - : Hindawi Limited. - 2042-0056. ; 2011:Mar 15
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background. With modern CT imaging a comprehensive overview of cerebral macro- and microcirculation can be obtained within minutes in acute ischemic stroke. This opens for patient stratification and individualized treatment. Methods. Four patients with acute ischemic stroke of different aetiologies and/or treatments were chosen for illustration of the comprehensive CT protocol and its value in subsequent treatment decisions. The patients were clinically evaluated according to the NIHSS-scale, examined with the comprehensive CT protocol including both CT angiography and CT perfusion, and followed up by MRI. Results. The comprehensive CT examination protocol increased the examination time but did not delay treatment initiation. In some cases CT angiography revealed the cause of stroke while CT perfusion located and graded the perfusion defect with reasonable accuracy, confirmed by follow-up MR-diffusion. In the presented cases findings of the comprehensive CT examination influenced the treatment strategy. Conclusions. The comprehensive CT examination is a fast and safe method allowing accurate diagnosis and making way for individualized treatment in acute ischemic stroke.
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| 22. |
- Rossebo, Judith E. Y., et al.
(author)
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An Enhanced Risk-Assessment Methodology for Smart Grids
- 2017
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In: Computer. - : IEEE COMPUTER SOC. - 0018-9162 .- 1558-0814. ; 50:4, s. 62-71
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Cyberattacks on power grids are pushing threat and risk assessment to another complexity level. As part of its scope, the EU's Security for Smart Electricity Grids (SEGRID) project was tasked with building on existing methods to address the interdependencies characteristic of a smart grid. The authors describe the resulting methodology.
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| 23. |
- Rudolph, Claudina, et al.
(author)
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Scandinavian trial of uncomplicated aortic dissection therapy : study protocol for a randomized controlled trial
- 2023
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In: Trials. - : BioMed Central (BMC). - 1745-6215. ; 24:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BackgroundContemporary management of uncomplicated type B aortic dissections (uTBAD) is based on the acuity and various morphological features. Medical therapy is mandatory, while the risks of early thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) are balanced against the potential for rupture, complex surgery, and death. Improved aortic morphology following TEVAR is documented, but evidence for improved overall survival is lacking. The costs and impact on quality of life are also needed.MethodsThe trial is a randomized, open-label, superiority clinical trial with parallel assignment of subjects at 23 clinical sites in Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Iceland. Eligibility includes patients aged ≥ 18 with uTBAD of < 4 weeks duration. Recruited subjects will be randomized to either standard medical therapy (SMT) or SMT + TEVAR, where TEVAR must be performed between 2–12 weeks from the onset of symptoms.DiscussionThis trial will evaluate the primary question of whether early TEVAR improves survival at 5 years among uTBAD patients. Moreover, the costs and the impact on quality of life should provide sorely needed data on other factors that play a role in treatment strategy decisions. The common Nordic healthcare model, with inclusion of all aortic centers, provides a favorable setting for carrying out this trial, while the robust healthcare registries ensure data validity.
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| 24. |
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| 25. |
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| 26. |
- Tarle, Magnus, et al.
(author)
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A World Model Based Reinforcement Learning Architecture for Autonomous Power System Control
- 2021
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In: 2021 IEEE International Conference on Communications, Control, and Computing Technologies for Smart Grids (SmartGridComm). - : IEEE. ; , s. 364-370
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Renewable generation is leading to rapidly shifting power flows and it is anticipated that traditional power system control may soon be inadequate to cope with these fluctuations. Traditional control include human-in-the-loop-control schemes while more autonomous control methods can be categorized into Wide-Area Monitoring, Protection and Control systems (WAMPAC). Within this latter group of more advanced systems, reinforcement learning (RL) is a potential candidate to facilitate power system control facing these new challenges. In this paper we demonstrate how a model based reinforcement learning (MBRL) algorithm, which learns and uses an internal model of the world, can be used for autonomous power system control. The proposed RL agent, called the World Model for Autonomous Power System Control (WMAP), includes a safety shield to minimize risk of poor decisions at high uncertainty. The shield can be configured to permit WMAP to take actions with the condition that WMAP asks for guidance, e.g. from a human operator, when in doubt. As an alternative, WMAP could be run in full decision support mode which would require the operator to take all the active decisions. A case study is performed on a IEEE 14-bus system where WMAP is setup to control setpoints of two FACTS devices to emulate grid stability improvements. Results show that improved grid stability is achieved using WMAP while staying within voltage limits. Furthermore, a disastrous situation is avoided when WMAP asks for help in a test scenario event that it had not been trained for.
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| 27. |
- Tarle, Magnus, et al.
(author)
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Safe Reinforcement Learning for Mitigation of Model Errors in FACTS Setpoint Control
- 2023
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In: 2023 International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and Technologies, SEST 2023. - : Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE).
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The application of closed-loop control using model-based approaches in wide area monitoring protection and control is limited. Challenges of model-based approaches include engineering complexity, model errors and convergence issues. In particular, as the grid is evolving e.g. with the expansion of renewables and distributed generation, maintaining an updated network model without model errors is onerous. Promising alternatives to model-based approaches are data-driven control architectures based on reinforcement learning (RL). In this work we study safe RL to confront safety concerns with data-driven approaches. In a case study on the IEEE 14-bus and IEEE 57-bus systems, accumulated constraint violations are investigated for a model-free RL agent and a model-based RL agent. These agents are compared against a model-based optimal controller subject to model errors. Our findings suggest that RL could be considered for optimizing voltage and current setpoints in systems where model errors include topological errors.
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| 28. |
- Vernotte, Alexandre, et al.
(author)
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Load Balancing of Renewable Energy : A Cyber Security Analysis
- 2018
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In: Energy Informatics. - : Springer. - 2520-8942. ; 1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BackgroundIn the coming years, the increase of automation in electricity distribution grids, controlled by ICT, will bring major consequences to the cyber security posture of the grids. Automation plays an especially important role in load balancing of renewable energy where distributed generation is balanced to load in a way that the grid stability is ensured. Threats to the load balancing and the smart grid in general arise from the activities of misbehaving or rouge actors in combination with poor design, implementation, or configuration of the system that makes it vulnerable. It is urgent to conduct an in-depth analysis about the feasibility and imminency of these potential threats ahead of a cyber catastrophy. This paper presents a cyber security evaluation of the ICT part of the smart grid with a focus on load balancing of renewable energy.MethodThe work builds on a load balancing centered smart grid reference architecture model that is designed as part of the evaluation with the help of SCADA system and smart grid experts. The smart grid load balancing architecture represented by the model is then analyzed using a threat modelling approach that is encapsulated in a tool called securiCAD. Countermeasures are introduced in the model to measure how much each improve the cyber security of the smart grid.ResultsThe analysis shows that the main threat comes from the internet and is directly dependant on the level of internet access office users have coupled with their level of access on the OT zone. Supply chain attacks are also of great concern, i.e. the compromising of the software/hardware vendor with the objective of feeding rogue updates to assets, typically to install a backdoor. The general takeaway defense-wise is that it is of the utmost importance to increase efforts in securing the smart Grid in all the ways possible as they appear to be generally complementary.DiscussionThe obtained results raise concerns whether the architecture of the smart grid still remains satisfactory in today’s state of the cyberspace and the increased presence and sophistication of cyber threats. There are also concerns whether the proposed security measures, regardless of their evaluated effectiveness, are realistically implementable from both financial and practical point of view.ConclusionsThere is no silver bullet available to achieve full protection against cyber attacks. The smart grid remains a network of IT/OT machines with dataflows going between them. State-sponsored hackers given enough time and regardless of the defences in place will eventually make their way into a critical infrastructure such as the smart grid. While mitigations will not eliminate the threats, they will increase the cyber resilience of the infrastructure by increasing both its time frame and effectiveness. As such, in a time where usability, efficiency and practicality are at the front of every domain, innovations regarding these aspects should really be carried out with strong security in mind.
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| 29. |
- Vuorinen, Katariina E.M., et al.
(author)
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Growth rings show limited evidence for ungulates' potential to suppress shrubs across the Arctic
- 2022
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In: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9318 .- 1748-9326. ; 17:3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Global warming has pronounced effects on tundra vegetation, and rising mean temperatures increase plant growth potential across the Arctic biome. Herbivores may counteract the warming impacts by reducing plant growth, but the strength of this effect may depend on prevailing regional climatic conditions. To study how ungulates interact with temperature to influence growth of tundra shrubs across the Arctic tundra biome, we assembled dendroecological data from 20 sites, comprising 1153 individual shrubs and 223 63 annual growth rings. Evidence for ungulates suppressing shrub radial growth was only observed at intermediate summer temperatures (6.5 °C-9 °C), and even at these temperatures the effect was not strong. Multiple factors, including forage preferences and landscape use by the ungulates, and favourable climatic conditions enabling effective compensatory growth of shrubs, may weaken the effects of ungulates on shrubs, possibly explaining the weakness of observed ungulate effects. Earlier local studies have shown that ungulates may counteract the impacts of warming on tundra shrub growth, but we demonstrate that ungulates' potential to suppress shrub radial growth is not always evident, and may be limited to certain climatic conditions.
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