1. |
- Glasbey, JC, et al.
(författare)
-
- 2021
-
swepub:Mat__t
|
|
2. |
|
|
3. |
- Tabiri, S, et al.
(författare)
-
- 2021
-
swepub:Mat__t
|
|
4. |
- Bravo, L, et al.
(författare)
-
- 2021
-
swepub:Mat__t
|
|
5. |
|
|
6. |
- Acharya, B. S., et al.
(författare)
-
Introducing the CTA concept
- 2013
-
Ingår i: Astroparticle physics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0927-6505 .- 1873-2852. ; 43, s. 3-18
-
Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) is a new observatory for very high-energy (VHE) gamma rays. CTA has ambitions science goals, for which it is necessary to achieve full-sky coverage, to improve the sensitivity by about an order of magnitude, to span about four decades of energy, from a few tens of GeV to above 100 TeV with enhanced angular and energy resolutions over existing VHE gamma-ray observatories. An international collaboration has formed with more than 1000 members from 27 countries in Europe, Asia, Africa and North and South America. In 2010 the CTA Consortium completed a Design Study and started a three-year Preparatory Phase which leads to production readiness of CTA in 2014. In this paper we introduce the science goals and the concept of CTA, and provide an overview of the project. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
|
|
7. |
- Khatri, C, et al.
(författare)
-
Outcomes after perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection in patients with proximal femoral fractures: an international cohort study
- 2021
-
Ingår i: BMJ open. - : BMJ. - 2044-6055. ; 11:11, s. e050830-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Studies have demonstrated high rates of mortality in people with proximal femoral fracture and SARS-CoV-2, but there is limited published data on the factors that influence mortality for clinicians to make informed treatment decisions. This study aims to report the 30-day mortality associated with perioperative infection of patients undergoing surgery for proximal femoral fractures and to examine the factors that influence mortality in a multivariate analysis.SettingProspective, international, multicentre, observational cohort study.ParticipantsPatients undergoing any operation for a proximal femoral fracture from 1 February to 30 April 2020 and with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection (either 7 days prior or 30-day postoperative).Primary outcome30-day mortality. Multivariate modelling was performed to identify factors associated with 30-day mortality.ResultsThis study reports included 1063 patients from 174 hospitals in 19 countries. Overall 30-day mortality was 29.4% (313/1063). In an adjusted model, 30-day mortality was associated with male gender (OR 2.29, 95% CI 1.68 to 3.13, p<0.001), age >80 years (OR 1.60, 95% CI 1.1 to 2.31, p=0.013), preoperative diagnosis of dementia (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.15 to 2.16, p=0.005), kidney disease (OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.18 to 2.55, p=0.005) and congestive heart failure (OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.06 to 2.48, p=0.025). Mortality at 30 days was lower in patients with a preoperative diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 (OR 0.6, 95% CI 0.6 (0.42 to 0.85), p=0.004). There was no difference in mortality in patients with an increase to delay in surgery (p=0.220) or type of anaesthetic given (p=0.787).ConclusionsPatients undergoing surgery for a proximal femoral fracture with a perioperative infection of SARS-CoV-2 have a high rate of mortality. This study would support the need for providing these patients with individualised medical and anaesthetic care, including medical optimisation before theatre. Careful preoperative counselling is needed for those with a proximal femoral fracture and SARS-CoV-2, especially those in the highest risk groups.Trial registration numberNCT04323644
|
|
8. |
|
|
9. |
|
|
10. |
- Actis, M., et al.
(författare)
-
Design concepts for the Cherenkov Telescope Array CTA : an advanced facility for ground-based high-energy gamma-ray astronomy
- 2011
-
Ingår i: Experimental astronomy. - : Springer. - 0922-6435 .- 1572-9508. ; 32:3, s. 193-316
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Ground-based gamma-ray astronomy has had a major breakthrough with the impressive results obtained using systems of imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes. Ground-based gamma-ray astronomy has a huge potential in astrophysics, particle physics and cosmology. CTA is an international initiative to build the next generation instrument, with a factor of 5-10 improvement in sensitivity in the 100 GeV-10 TeV range and the extension to energies well below 100 GeV and above 100 TeV. CTA will consist of two arrays (one in the north, one in the south) for full sky coverage and will be operated as open observatory. The design of CTA is based on currently available technology. This document reports on the status and presents the major design concepts of CTA.
|
|
11. |
|
|
12. |
|
|
13. |
- Achberger, Christine, 1968, et al.
(författare)
-
State of the Climate in 2011
- 2012
-
Ingår i: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007. ; 93:7
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Large-scale climate patterns influenced temperature and weather patterns around the globe in 2011. In particular, a moderate-to-strong La Nina at the beginning of the year dissipated during boreal spring but reemerged during fall. The phenomenon contributed to historical droughts in East Africa, the southern United States, and northern Mexico, as well the wettest two-year period (2010-11) on record for Australia, particularly remarkable as this follows a decade-long dry period. Precipitation patterns in South America were also influenced by La Nina. Heavy rain in Rio de Janeiro in January triggered the country's worst floods and landslides in Brazil's history. The 2011 combined average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was the coolest since 2008, but was also among the 15 warmest years on record and above the 1981-2010 average. The global sea surface temperature cooled by 0.1 degrees C from 2010 to 2011, associated with cooling influences of La Nina. Global integrals of upper ocean heat content for 2011 were higher than for all prior years, demonstrating the Earth's dominant role of the oceans in the Earth's energy budget. In the upper atmosphere, tropical stratospheric temperatures were anomalously warm, while polar temperatures were anomalously cold. This led to large springtime stratospheric ozone reductions in polar latitudes in both hemispheres. Ozone concentrations in the Arctic stratosphere during March were the lowest for that period since satellite records began in 1979. An extensive, deep, and persistent ozone hole over the Antarctic in September indicates that the recovery to pre-1980 conditions is proceeding very slowly. Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increased by 2.10 ppm in 2011, and exceeded 390 ppm for the first time since instrumental records began. Other greenhouse gases also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 30% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Most ozone depleting substances continued to fall. The global net ocean carbon dioxide uptake for the 2010 transition period from El Nino to La Nina, the most recent period for which analyzed data are available, was estimated to be 1.30 Pg C yr(-1), almost 12% below the 29-year long-term average. Relative to the long-term trend, global sea level dropped noticeably in mid-2010 and reached a local minimum in 2011. The drop has been linked to the La Nina conditions that prevailed throughout much of 2010-11. Global sea level increased sharply during the second half of 2011. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2011 was well-below average, with a total of 74 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010, the North Atlantic was the only basin that experienced above-normal activity. For the first year since the widespread introduction of the Dvorak intensity-estimation method in the 1980s, only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity level-all in the Northwest Pacific basin. The Arctic continued to warm at about twice the rate compared with lower latitudes. Below-normal summer snowfall, a decreasing trend in surface albedo, and above-average surface and upper air temperatures resulted in a continued pattern of extreme surface melting, and net snow and ice loss on the Greenland ice sheet. Warmer-than-normal temperatures over the Eurasian Arctic in spring resulted in a new record-low June snow cover extent and spring snow cover duration in this region. In the Canadian Arctic, the mass loss from glaciers and ice caps was the greatest since GRACE measurements began in 2002, continuing a negative trend that began in 1987. New record high temperatures occurred at 20 m below the land surface at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska, where measurements began in the late 1970s. Arctic sea ice extent in September 2011 was the second-lowest on record, while the extent of old ice (four and five years) reached a new record minimum that was just 19% of normal. On the opposite pole, austral winter and spring temperatures were more than 3 degrees C above normal over much of the Antarctic continent. However, winter temperatures were below normal in the northern Antarctic Peninsula, which continued the downward trend there during the last 15 years. In summer, an all-time record high temperature of -12.3 degrees C was set at the South Pole station on 25 December, exceeding the previous record by more than a full degree. Antarctic sea ice extent anomalies increased steadily through much of the year, from briefly setting a record low in April, to well above average in December. The latter trend reflects the dispersive effects of low pressure on sea ice and the generally cool conditions around the Antarctic perimeter.
|
|
14. |
|
|
15. |
- Abdo, A. A., et al.
(författare)
-
Multi-wavelength observations of the flaring gamma-ray blazar 3C 66A in 2008 October
- 2011
-
Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 726:1, s. 43-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The BL Lacertae object 3C 66A was detected in a flaring state by the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) and VERITAS in 2008 October. In addition to these gamma-ray observations, F-GAMMA, GASP-WEBT, PAIRITEL, MDM, ATOM, Swift, and Chandra provided radio to X-ray coverage. The available light curves show variability and, in particular, correlated flares are observed in the optical and Fermi-LAT gamma-ray band. The resulting spectral energy distribution can be well fitted using standard leptonic models with and without an external radiation field for inverse Compton scattering. It is found, however, that only the model with an external radiation field can accommodate the intra-night variability observed at optical wavelengths.
|
|
16. |
- de Jong, R. S., et al.
(författare)
-
4MOST : Project overview and information for the First Call for Proposals
- 2019
-
Ingår i: The Messenger. - : European Southern Observatory. - 0722-6691. ; 175, s. 3-11
-
Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- We introduce the 4-metre Multi-Object Spectroscopic Telescope (4MOST), a new high-multiplex, wide-field spectroscopic survey facility under development for the four-metre-class Visible and Infrared Survey Telescope for Astronomy (VISTA) at Paranal. Its key specifications are: a large field of view (FoV) of 4.2 square degrees and a high multiplex capability, with 1624 fibres feeding two low-resolution spectrographs (R = λ/Δλ ~ 6500), and 812 fibres transferring light to the high-resolution spectrograph (R ~ 20 000). After a description of the instrument and its expected performance, a short overview is given of its operational scheme and planned 4MOST Consortium science; these aspects are covered in more detail in other articles in this edition of The Messenger. Finally, the processes, schedules, and policies concerning the selection of ESO Community Surveys are presented, commencing with a singular opportunity to submit Letters of Intent for Public Surveys during the first five years of 4MOST operations.
|
|
17. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
-
STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 99:8, s. S1-S310
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)
|
|
18. |
|
|
19. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(författare)
-
Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
|
|
20. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
-
State of the Climate in 2016
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 98:8, s. S1-S280
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 +/- 0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015 to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year measurement record. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface surpassed 400 ppm (402.9 +/- 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800000 years. One of the strongest El Nino events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Nina evolved later in the year. Owing at least in part to the combination of El Nino conditions early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth's surface observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set in 2015. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed, while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported record high annual temperatures while many others observed near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44 degrees C, contributed to a water crisis for 330 million people and to 300 fatalities. In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0 degrees C above the 1981-2010 average, breaking the previous record of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8 degrees C, representing a 3.5 degrees C increase since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981-2010 average. The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied with 2007 for the second lowest value on record, 33% lower than the 1981-2010 average. Arctic sea ice cover remains relatively young and thin, making it vulnerable to continued extensive melt. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has the capacity to contribute similar to 7 m to sea level rise, reached a record low value. The onset of its surface melt was the second earliest, after 2012, in the 37-year satellite record. Sea surface temperature was record high at the global scale, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by about 0.01 degrees C. The global sea surface temperature trend for the 21st century-to-date of +0.162 degrees C decade(-1) is much higher than the longer term 1950-2016 trend of +0.100 degrees C decade(-1). Global annual mean sea level also reached a new record high, marking the sixth consecutive year of increase. Global annual ocean heat content saw a slight drop compared to the record high in 2015. Alpine glacier retreat continued around the globe, and preliminary data indicate that 2016 is the 37th consecutive year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover for each month from February to June was among its four least extensive in the 47-year satellite record. Continuing a pattern below the surface, record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska and at the Canadian observatory on northernmost Ellesmere Island. In the Antarctic, record low monthly surface pressures were broken at many stations, with the southern annular mode setting record high index values in March and June. Monthly high surface pressure records for August and November were set at several stations. During this period, record low daily and monthly sea ice extents were observed, with the November mean sea ice extent more than 5 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average. These record low sea ice values contrast sharply with the record high values observed during 2012-14. Over the region, springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion was less severe relative to the 1991-2006 average, but ozone levels were still low compared to pre-1990 levels. Closer to the equator, 93 named tropical storms were observed during 2016, above the 1981-2010 average of 82, but fewer than the 101 storms recorded in 2015. Three basins-the North Atlantic, and eastern and western North Pacific-experienced above-normal activity in 2016. The Australian basin recorded its least active season since the beginning of the satellite era in 1970. Overall, four tropical cyclones reached the Saffir-Simpson category 5 intensity level. The strong El Nino at the beginning of the year that transitioned to a weak La Nina contributed to enhanced precipitation variability around the world. Wet conditions were observed throughout the year across southern South America, causing repeated heavy flooding in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Wetter-than-usual conditions were also observed for eastern Europe and central Asia, alleviating the drought conditions of 2014 and 2015 in southern Russia. In the United States, California had its first wetter-than-average year since 2012, after being plagued by drought for several years. Even so, the area covered by drought in 2016 at the global scale was among the largest in the post-1950 record. For each month, at least 12% of land surfaces experienced severe drought conditions or worse, the longest such stretch in the record. In northeastern Brazil, drought conditions were observed for the fifth consecutive year, making this the longest drought on record in the region. Dry conditions were also observed in western Bolivia and Peru; it was Bolivia's worst drought in the past 25 years. In May, with abnormally warm and dry conditions already prevailing over western Canada for about a year, the human-induced Fort McMurray wildfire burned nearly 590000 hectares and became the costliest disaster in Canadian history, with $3 billion (U.S. dollars) in insured losses.
|
|
21. |
|
|
22. |
- Hudson, Lawrence N, et al.
(författare)
-
The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Ecology and Evolution. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 2045-7758. ; 7:1, s. 145-188
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.
|
|
23. |
|
|
24. |
|
|
25. |
|
|
26. |
- Blunden, Jessica, et al.
(författare)
-
State of the Climate in 2012
- 2013
-
Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 94:8, s. S1-S258
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- For the first time in serveral years, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation did not dominate regional climate conditions around the globe. A weak La Ni a dissipated to ENSOneutral conditions by spring, and while El Nino appeared to be emerging during summer, this phase never fully developed as sea surface temperatures in the eastern conditions. Nevertheless, other large-scale climate patterns and extreme weather events impacted various regions during the year. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation from mid-January to early February contributed to frigid conditions in parts of northern Africa, eastern Europe, and western Asia. A lack of rain during the 2012 wet season led to the worst drought in at least the past three decades for northeastern Brazil. Central North America also experienced one of its most severe droughts on record. The Caribbean observed a very wet dry season and it was the Sahel's wettest rainy season in 50 years. Overall, the 2012 average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces ranked among the 10 warmest years on record. The global land surface temperature alone was also among the 10 warmest on record. In the upper atmosphere, the average stratospheric temperature was record or near-record cold, depending on the dataset. After a 30-year warming trend from 1970 to 1999 for global sea surface temperatures, the period 2000-12 had little further trend. This may be linked to the prevalence of La Ni a-like conditions during the 21st century. Heat content in the upper 700 m of the ocean remained near record high levels in 2012. Net increases from 2011 to 2012 were observed at 700-m to 2000-m depth and even in the abyssal ocean below. Following sharp decreases in to the effects of La Ni a, sea levels rebounded to reach records highs in 2012. The increased hydrological cycle seen in recent years continued, with more evaporation in drier locations and more precipitation in rainy areas. In a pattern that has held since 2004, salty areas of the ocean surfaces and subsurfaces were anomalously salty on average, while fresher areas were anomalously fresh. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2012 was near average, with a total of 84 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010 and 2011, the North Atlantic was the only hurricane basin that experienced above-normal activity. In this basin, Sandy brought devastation to Cuba and parts of the eastern North American seaboard. All other basins experienced either near-or below-normal tropical cyclone activity. Only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity-all in Bopha became the only storm in the historical record to produce winds greater than 130 kt south of 7 N. It was also the costliest storm to affect the Philippines and killed more than 1000 residents. Minimum Arctic sea ice extent in September and Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in June both reached new record lows. June snow cover extent is now declining at a faster rate (-17.6% per decade) than September sea ice extent (-13.0% per decade). Permafrost temperatures reached record high values in northernmost Alaska. A new melt extent record occurred on 11-12 July on the Greenland ice sheet; 97% of the ice sheet showed some form of melt, four times greater than the average melt for this time of year. The climate in Antarctica was relatively stable overall. The largest maximum sea ice extent since records begain in 1978 was observed in September 2012. In the stratosphere, warm air led to the second smallest ozone hole in the past two decades. Even so, the springtime ozone layer above Antarctica likely will not return to its early 1980s state until about 2060. Following a slight decline associated with the global 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reached a record 9.5 +/- 0.5 Pg C in 2011 and a new record of 9.7 +/- 0.5 Pg C is estimated for 2012. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by 2.1 ppm in 2012, to 392.6 ppm. In spring 2012, 2 concentration exceeded 400 ppm at 7 of the 13 Arctic observation sites. Globally, other greenhouse gases including methane and nitrous oxide also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 32% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Concentrations of most ozone depleting substances continued to fall.
|
|
27. |
- Galan, C., et al.
(författare)
-
International observational campaigns of the last two eclipses in EE Cephei : 2003 and 2008/9
- 2012
-
Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 544, s. A53-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context. EECep is an unusual long-period (5.6 yr) eclipsing binary discovered during the mid-twentieth century. It undergoes almost-grey eclipses that vary in terms of both depth and duration at different epochs. The system consists of a Be type star and a dark dusty disk around an invisible companion. EECep together with the widely studied epsilon Aur are the only two known cases of long-period eclipsing binaries with a dark, dusty disk component responsible for periodic obscurations.Aims. Two observational campaigns were carried out during the eclipses of EECep in 2003 and 2008/9 to verify whether the eclipsing body in the system is indeed a dark disk and to understand the observed changes in the depths and durations of the eclipses.Methods. Multicolour photometric data and spectroscopic observations performed at both low and high resolutions were collected with several dozen instruments located in Europe and North America. We numerically modelled the variations in brightness and colour during the eclipses. We tested models with different disk structure, taking into consideration the inhomogeneous surface brightness of the Be star. We considered the possibility of disk precession.Results. The complete set of observational data collected during the last three eclipses are made available to the astronomical community. The 2003 and 2008/9 eclipses of EECep were very shallow. The latter is the shallowest among all observed. The very high quality photometric data illustrate in detail the colour evolution during the eclipses for the first time. Two blue maxima in the colour indices were detected during these two eclipses, one before and one after the photometric minimum. The first (stronger) blue maximum is simultaneous with a "bump" that is very clear in all the UBV(RI)(C) light curves. A temporary increase in the I-band brightness at the orbital phase similar to 0.2 was observed after each of the last three eclipses. Variations in the spectral line profiles seem to be recurrent during each cycle. The Na I lines always show at least three absorption components during the eclipse minimum and strong absorption is superimposed on the H alpha emission.Conclusions. These observations confirm that the eclipsing object in EECep system is indeed a dark, dusty disk around a low luminosity object. The primary appears to be a rapidly rotating Be star that is strongly darkened at the equator and brightened at the poles. Some of the conclusions of this work require verification in future studies: (i) a complex, possibly multi-ring structure of the disk in EECep; (ii) our explanation of the "bump" observed during the last two eclipses in terms of the different times of obscuration of the hot polar regions of the Be star by the disk; and (iii) our suggested period of the disk precession (similar to 11-12 P-orb) and predicted depth of about 2(m) for the forthcoming eclipse in 2014.
|
|
28. |
- Micah, Angela E., et al.
(författare)
-
Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19 : a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2050
- 2021
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 398:10308, s. 1317-1343
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020. Methods We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$ per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050. Findings In 2019, health spending globally reached $8. 8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8.7-8.8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total, $40.4 billion (0.5%, 95% UI 0.5-0.5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24.6% (UI 24.0-25.1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54.8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this, $13.7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12.3 billion was newly committed and $1.4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3.1 billion (22.4%) of the funds focused on country-level coordination and $2.4 billion (17.9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714.4 million (7.7%) of COVID-19 development assistance for health went to Latin America, despite this region reporting 34.3% of total recorded COVID-19 deaths in low-income or middle-income countries in 2020. Spending on health is expected to rise to $1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied. Interpretation Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
|
|
29. |
- Saunois, M., et al.
(författare)
-
The global methane budget 2000–2012
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 8:2, s. 697-751
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH4 over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety of diffusive CH4 sources that overlap geographically, and from the destruction of CH4 by the very short-lived hydroxyl radical (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate research on the methane cycle, and producing regular (∼ biennial) updates of the global methane budget. This consortium includes atmospheric physicists and chemists, biogeochemists of surface and marine emissions, and socio-economists who study anthropogenic emissions. Following Kirschke et al. (2013), we propose here the first version of a living review paper that integrates results of top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models, inventories and data-driven approaches (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, and inventories for anthropogenic emissions, data-driven extrapolations). For the 2003–2012 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by top-down inversions at 558 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 540–568. About 60 % of global emissions are anthropogenic (range 50–65 %). Since 2010, the bottom-up global emission inventories have been closer to methane emissions in the most carbon-intensive Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP8.5) and higher than all other RCP scenarios. Bottom-up approaches suggest larger global emissions (736 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 596–884) mostly because of larger natural emissions from individual sources such as inland waters, natural wetlands and geological sources. Considering the atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget, it is likely that some of the individual emissions reported by the bottom-up approaches are overestimated, leading to too large global emissions. Latitudinal data from top-down emissions indicate a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 64 % of the global budget, < 30° N) as compared to mid (∼ 32 %, 30–60° N) and high northern latitudes (∼ 4 %, 60–90° N). Top-down inversions consistently infer lower emissions in China (∼ 58 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 51–72, −14 %) and higher emissions in Africa (86 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 73–108, +19 %) than bottom-up values used as prior estimates. Overall, uncertainties for anthropogenic emissions appear smaller than those from natural sources, and the uncertainties on source categories appear larger for top-down inversions than for bottom-up inventories and models. The most important source of uncertainty on the methane budget is attributable to emissions from wetland and other inland waters. We show that the wetland extent could contribute 30–40 % on the estimated range for wetland emissions. Other priorities for improving the methane budget include the following: (i) the development of process-based models for inland-water emissions, (ii) the intensification of methane observations at local scale (flux measurements) to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scale (surface networks and satellites) to constrain top-down inversions, (iii) improvements in the estimation of atmospheric loss by OH, and (iv) improvements of the transport models integrated in top-down inversions. The data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (http://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/GLOBAL_METHANE_BUDGET_2016_V1.1) and the Global Carbon Project.
|
|
30. |
|
|
31. |
- Aaron-Morrison, Arlene P., et al.
(författare)
-
State of the climate in 2014
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 96
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Most of the dozens of essential climate variables monitored each year in this report continued to follow their long-term trends in 2014, with several setting new records. Carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-the major greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-once again all reached record high average atmospheric concentrations for the year. Carbon dioxide increased by 1.9 ppm to reach a globally averaged value of 397.2 ppm for 2014. Altogether, 5 major and 15 minor greenhouse gases contributed 2.94 W m-2 of direct radiative forcing, which is 36% greater than their contributions just a quarter century ago. Accompanying the record-high greenhouse gas concentrations was nominally the highest annual global surface temperature in at least 135 years of modern record keeping, according to four independent observational analyses. The warmth was distributed widely around the globe's land areas, Europe observed its warmest year on record by a large margin, with close to two dozen countries breaking their previous national temperature records; many countries in Asia had annual temperatures among their 10 warmest on record; Africa reported above-average temperatures across most of the continent throughout 2014; Australia saw its third warmest year on record, following record heat there in 2013; Mexico had its warmest year on record; and Argentina and Uruguay each had their second warmest year on record. Eastern North America was the only major region to observe a below-average annual temperature. But it was the oceans that drove the record global surface temperature in 2014. Although 2014 was largely ENSO-neutral, the globally averaged sea surface temperature (SST) was the highest on record. The warmth was particularly notable in the North Pacific Ocean where SST anomalies signaled a transition from a negative to positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation. In the winter of 2013/14, unusually warm water in the northeast Pacific was associated with elevated ocean heat content anomalies and elevated sea level in the region. Globally, upper ocean heat content was record high for the year, reflecting the continued increase of thermal energy in the oceans, which absorb over 90% of Earth's excess heat from greenhouse gas forcing. Owing to both ocean warming and land ice melt contributions, global mean sea level in 2014 was also record high and 67 mm greater than the 1993 annual mean, when satellite altimetry measurements began. Sea surface salinity trends over the past decade indicate that salty regions grew saltier while fresh regions became fresher, suggestive of an increased hydrological cycle over the ocean expected with global warming. As in previous years, these patterns are reflected in 2014 subsurface salinity anomalies as well. With a now decade-long trans-basin instrument array along 26°N, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation shows a decrease in transport of-4.2 ± 2.5 Sv decade-1. Precipitation was quite variable across the globe. On balance, precipitation over the world's oceans was above average, while below average across land surfaces. Drought continued in southeastern Brazil and the western United States. Heavy rain during April-June led to devastating floods in Canada's Eastern Prairies. Above-normal summer monsoon rainfall was observed over the southern coast of West Africa, while drier conditions prevailed over the eastern Sahel. Generally, summer monsoon rainfall over eastern Africa was above normal, except in parts of western South Sudan and Ethiopia. The south Asian summer monsoon in India was below normal, with June record dry. Across the major tropical cyclone basins, 91 named storms were observed during 2014, above the 1981-2010 global average of 82. The Eastern/Central Pacific and South Indian Ocean basins experienced significantly above-normal activity in 2014; all other basins were either at or below normal. The 22 named storms in the Eastern/Central Pacific was the basin's most since 1992. Similar to 2013, the North Atlantic season was quieter than most years of the last two decades with respect to the number of storms, despite the absence of El Niño conditions during both years. In higher latitudes and at higher elevations, increased warming continued to be visible in the decline of glacier mass balance, increasing permafrost temperatures, and a deeper thawing layer in seasonally frozen soil. In the Arctic, the 2014 temperature over land areas was the fourth highest in the 115-year period of record and snow melt occurred 20-30 days earlier than the 1998-2010 average. The Greenland Ice Sheet experienced extensive melting in summer 2014. The extent of melting was above the 1981-2010 average for 90% of the melt season, contributing to the second lowest average summer albedo over Greenland since observations began in 2000 and a record-low albedo across the ice sheet for August. On the North Slope of Alaska, new record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at four of five permafrost observatories. In September, Arctic minimum sea ice extent was the sixth lowest since satellite records began in 1979. The eight lowest sea ice extents during this period have occurred in the last eight years. Conversely, in the Antarctic, sea ice extent countered its declining trend and set several new records in 2014, including record high monthly mean sea ice extent each month from April to November. On 20 September, a record large daily Antarctic sea ice extent of 20.14 × 106 km2 occurred. The 2014 Antarctic stratospheric ozone hole was 20.9 million km2 when averaged from 7 September to 13 October, the sixth smallest on record and continuing a decrease, albeit statistically insignificant, in area since 1998.
|
|
32. |
- Benz, A. O., et al.
(författare)
-
Hydrides in young stellar objects : Radiation tracers in a protostar-disk-outflow system
- 2010
-
Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 521, s. L35-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context. Hydrides of the most abundant heavier elements are fundamental molecules in cosmic chemistry. Some of them trace gas irradiated by UV or X-rays. Aims: We explore the abundances of major hydrides in W3 IRS5, a prototypical region of high-mass star formation. Methods: W3 IRS5 was observed by HIFI on the Herschel Space Observatory with deep integration (≃2500 s) in 8 spectral regions. Results: The target lines including CH, NH, H3O+, and the new molecules SH+, H2O+, and OH+ are detected. The H2O+ and OH+ J = 1-0 lines are found mostly in absorption, but also appear to exhibit weak emission (P-Cyg-like). Emission requires high density, thus originates most likely near the protostar. This is corroborated by the absence of line shifts relative to the young stellar object (YSO). In addition, H2O+ and OH+ also contain strong absorption components at a velocity shifted relative to W3 IRS5, which are attributed to foreground clouds. Conclusions: The molecular column densities derived from observations correlate well with the predictions of a model that assumes the main emission region is in outflow walls, heated and irradiated by protostellar UV radiation. Herschel is an ESA space observatory with science instruments provided by a European-led Principal Investigator consortia and with important participation from NASA.Appendix (page 5) is only available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org
|
|
33. |
- Bergin, E. A., et al.
(författare)
-
Sensitive limits on the abundance of cold water vapor in the DM Tauri protoplanetary disk
- 2010
-
Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 521, s. L33-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We performed a sensitive search for the ground-state emission lines of ortho-and para-water vapor in the DM Tau protoplanetary disk using the Herschel/HIFI instrument. No strong lines are detected down to 3 sigma levels in 0.5 km s(-1) channels of 4.2 mK for the 1(10)-1(01) line and 12.6 mK for the 1(11)-0(00) line. We report a very tentative detection, however, of the 1(10)-1(01) line in the wide band spectrometer, with a strength of T-mb = 2.7 mK, a width of 5.6 km s(-1) and an integrated intensity of 16.0 mK km s(-1). The latter constitutes a 6 sigma detection. Regardless of the reality of this tentative detection, model calculations indicate that our sensitive limits on the line strengths preclude efficient desorption of water in the UV illuminated regions of the disk. We hypothesize that more than 95-99% of the water ice is locked up in coagulated grains that have settled to the midplane.
|
|
34. |
|
|
35. |
- Feng, Shaohong, et al.
(författare)
-
Dense sampling of bird diversity increases power of comparative genomics
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 587:7833
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Whole-genome sequencing projects are increasingly populating the tree of life and characterizing biodiversity(1-4). Sparse taxon sampling has previously been proposed to confound phylogenetic inference(5), and captures only a fraction of the genomic diversity. Here we report a substantial step towards the dense representation of avian phylogenetic and molecular diversity, by analysing 363 genomes from 92.4% of bird families-including 267 newly sequenced genomes produced for phase II of the Bird 10,000 Genomes (B10K) Project. We use this comparative genome dataset in combination with a pipeline that leverages a reference-free whole-genome alignment to identify orthologous regions in greater numbers than has previously been possible and to recognize genomic novelties in particular bird lineages. The densely sampled alignment provides a single-base-pair map of selection, has more than doubled the fraction of bases that are confidently predicted to be under conservation and reveals extensive patterns of weak selection in predominantly non-coding DNA. Our results demonstrate that increasing the diversity of genomes used in comparative studies can reveal more shared and lineage-specific variation, and improve the investigation of genomic characteristics. We anticipate that this genomic resource will offer new perspectives on evolutionary processes in cross-species comparative analyses and assist in efforts to conserve species. A dataset of the genomes of 363 species from the Bird 10,000 Genomes Project shows increased power to detect shared and lineage-specific variation, demonstrating the importance of phylogenetically diverse taxon sampling in whole-genome sequencing.
|
|
36. |
- Gupta, H., et al.
(författare)
-
Detection of OH+ and H2O+ towards Orion KL
- 2010
-
Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 521, s. L47-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report observations of the reactive molecular ions OH+, H2O+, and H3O+ towards Orion KL with Herschel/HIFI. All three N = 1-0 fine-structure transitions of OH+ at 909, 971, and 1033 GHz and both fine-structure components of the doublet ortho-H2O+ 111-000 transition at 1115 and 1139 GHz were detected; an upper limit was obtained for H3O+. OH+ and H2O+ are observed purely in absorption, showing a narrow component at the source velocity of 9 km s-1, and a broad blueshifted absorption similar to that reported recently for HF and para-H218O, and attributed to the low velocity outflow of Orion KL. We estimate column densities of OH+ and H2O+ for the 9 km s-1 component of 9 ± 3 × 1012 cm-2 and 7 ± 2 × 1012 cm-2, and those in the outflow of 1.9 ± 0.7 × 1013 cm-2 and 1.0 ± 0.3 × 1013 cm-2. Upper limits of 2.4 × 1012 cm-2 and 8.7 × 1012 cm-2 were derived for the column densities of ortho and para-H3O+ from transitions near 985 and 1657 GHz. The column densities of the three ions are up to an order of magnitude lower than those obtained from recent observations of W31C and W49N. The comparatively low column densities may be explained by a higher gas density despite the assumption of a very high ionization rate.
|
|
37. |
- Kristensen, L. E., et al.
(författare)
-
Water in low-mass star-forming regions with Herschel . HIFI spectroscopy of NGC 1333
- 2010
-
Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 521, s. L30-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- “Water In Star-forming regions with Herschel” (WISH) is a key programme dedicated to studying the role of water and related species during the star-formation process and constraining the physical and chemical properties of young stellar objects. The Heterodyne Instrument for the Far-Infrared (HIFI) on the Herschel Space Observatory observed three deeply embedded protostars in the low-mass star-forming region NGC 1333 in several H_216O, H_218O, and CO transitions. Line profiles are resolved for five H_216O transitions in each source, revealing them to be surprisingly complex. The line profiles are decomposed into broad (>20 km s-1), medium-broad (~5-10 km s-1), and narrow (<5 km s-1) components. The H_218O emission is only detected in broad 110-101 lines (>20 km s-1), indicating that its physical origin is the same as for the broad H_216O component. In one of the sources, IRAS4A, an inverse P Cygni profile is observed, a clear sign of infall in the envelope. From the line profiles alone, it is clear that the bulk of emission arises from shocks, both on small (⪉1000 AU) and large scales along the outflow cavity walls (~10 000 AU). The H2O line profiles are compared to CO line profiles to constrain the H2O abundance as a function of velocity within these shocked regions. The H2O/CO abundance ratios are measured to be in the range of ~0.1-1, corresponding to H2O abundances of ~10-5-10-4 with respect to H2. Approximately 5-10% of the gas is hot enough for all oxygen to be driven into water in warm post-shock gas, mostly at high velocities. Herschel is an ESA space observatory with science instruments provided by European-led Principal Investigator consortia and with important participation from NASA.Tables 2 and 3 (page 6) are only available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org
|
|
38. |
- Monks, P. S., et al.
(författare)
-
Atmospheric composition change : global and regional air quality
- 2009
-
Ingår i: Atmospheric Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 1352-2310 .- 1873-2844. ; 43:33, s. 5268-5350
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Air quality transcends all scales with in the atmosphere from the local to the global with handovers and feedbacks at each scale interaction. Air quality has manifold effects on health, ecosystems heritage and, climate. In this review the state of scientific understanding in relation to global and regional air quality is outlined. The review discusses air quality, in terms of emissions, processing and transport of trace gases and aerosols. New insights into the characterization of both natural and anthropogenic emissions are reviewed looking at both natural (e.g. dust and lightning) as well as plant emissions. Trends in anthropogenic emissions both by region and globally are discussed as well as biomass burning emissions. In terms of chemical processing the major air quality elements of ozone, non-methane hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides and aerosols are covered. A number of topics are presented as a way of integrating the process view into the atmospheric context; these include the atmospheric oxidation efficiency, halogen and HOx chemistry, nighttime chemistry, tropical chemistry, heat waves, megacities, biomass burning and the regional hot spot of the Mediterranean. New findings with respect to the transport of pollutants across the scales are discussed, in particular the move to quantify the impact of long-range transport on regional air quality. Gaps and research questions that remain intractable are identified. The review concludes with a focus of research and policy questions for the coming decade. In particular, the policy challenges for concerted air quality and climate change policy (co-benefit) are discussed.
|
|
39. |
- Saunois, M., et al.
(författare)
-
Variability and quasi-decadal changes in the methane budget over the period 2000–2012
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 17:18, s. 11135-11161
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Following the recent Global Carbon Project (GCP) synthesis of the decadal methane (CH4) budget over 2000–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016), we analyse here the same dataset with a focus on quasi-decadal and inter-annual variability in CH4 emissions. The GCP dataset integrates results from top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry), inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven approaches. The annual global methane emissions from top-down studies, which by construction match the observed methane growth rate within their uncertainties, all show an increase in total methane emissions over the period 2000–2012, but this increase is not linear over the 13 years. Despite differences between individual studies, the mean emission anomaly of the top-down ensemble shows no significant trend in total methane emissions over the period 2000–2006, during the plateau of atmospheric methane mole fractions, and also over the period 2008–2012, during the renewed atmospheric methane increase. However, the top-down ensemble mean produces an emission shift between 2006 and 2008, leading to 22 [16–32] Tg CH4 yr−1 higher methane emissions over the period 2008–2012 compared to 2002–2006. This emission increase mostly originated from the tropics, with a smaller contribution from mid-latitudes and no significant change from boreal regions. The regional contributions remain uncertain in top-down studies. Tropical South America and South and East Asia seem to contribute the most to the emission increase in the tropics. However, these two regions have only limited atmospheric measurements and remain therefore poorly constrained. The sectorial partitioning of this emission increase between the periods 2002–2006 and 2008–2012 differs from one atmospheric inversion study to another. However, all top-down studies suggest smaller changes in fossil fuel emissions (from oil, gas, and coal industries) compared to the mean of the bottom-up inventories included in this study. This difference is partly driven by a smaller emission change in China from the top-down studies compared to the estimate in the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.2) inventory, which should be revised to smaller values in a near future. We apply isotopic signatures to the emission changes estimated for individual studies based on five emission sectors and find that for six individual top-down studies (out of eight) the average isotopic signature of the emission changes is not consistent with the observed change in atmospheric 13CH4. However, the partitioning in emission change derived from the ensemble mean is consistent with this isotopic constraint. At the global scale, the top-down ensemble mean suggests that the dominant contribution to the resumed atmospheric CH4 growth after 2006 comes from microbial sources (more from agriculture and waste sectors than from natural wetlands), with an uncertain but smaller contribution from fossil CH4 emissions. In addition, a decrease in biomass burning emissions (in agreement with the biomass burning emission databases) makes the balance of sources consistent with atmospheric 13CH4 observations. In most of the top-down studies included here, OH concentrations are considered constant over the years (seasonal variations but without any inter-annual variability). As a result, the methane loss (in particular through OH oxidation) varies mainly through the change in methane concentrations and not its oxidants. For these reasons, changes in the methane loss could not be properly investigated in this study, although it may play a significant role in the recent atmospheric methane changes as briefly discussed at the end of the paper.
|
|
40. |
- Yildiz, U. A., et al.
(författare)
-
Herschel/HIFI observations of high-J CO lines in the NGC 1333 low-mass star-forming region
- 2010
-
Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 521, s. L40-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Herschel/HIFI observations of high-J lines (up to J(u) = 10) of (CO)-C-12, (CO)-C-13 and (CO)-O-18 are presented toward three deeply embedded low-mass protostars, NGC 1333 IRAS 2A, IRAS 4A, and IRAS 4B, obtained as part of the Water In Star-forming regions with Herschel (WISH) key program. The spectrally-resolved HIFI data are complemented by ground-based observations of lower-J CO and isotopologue lines. The (CO)-C-12 10-9 profiles are dominated by broad (FWHM 25-30 km s(-1)) emission. Radiative transfer models are used to constrain the temperature of this shocked gas to 100-200 K. Several CO and (CO)-C-13 line profiles also reveal a medium-broad component (FWHM5-10 km s(-1)), seen prominently in H2O lines. Column densities for both components are presented, providing a reference for determining abundances of other molecules in the same gas. The narrow (CO)-O-18 9-8 lines probe the warmer part of the quiescent envelope. Their intensities require a jump in the CO abundance at an evaporation temperature around 25 K, thus providing new direct evidence for a CO ice evaporation zone around low-mass protostars.
|
|
41. |
- Comito, C., et al.
(författare)
-
Herschel observations of deuterated water towards Sgr B2(M)
- 2010
-
Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 521, s. L38-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Observations of HDO are an important complement for studies of water, because they give strong constraints on the formation processes - grain surfaces versus energetic process in the gas phase, e. g. in shocks. The HIFI observations of multiple transitions of HDO in Sgr B2(M) presented here allow the determination of the HDO abundance throughout the envelope, which has not been possible before with ground-based observations only. The abundance structure has been modeled with the spherical Monte Carlo radiative transfer code RATRAN, which also takes radiative pumping by continuum emission from dust into account. The modeling reveals that the abundance of HDO rises steeply with temperature from a low abundance (2.5 x 10(-11)) in the outer envelope at temperatures below 100 K through a medium abundance (1.5 x 10(-9)) in the inner envelope/outer core at temperatures between 100 and 200 K, and finally a high abundance (3.5 x 10(-9)) at temperatures above 200 K in the hot core.
|
|
42. |
- Feigin, Valery L., et al.
(författare)
-
Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 18:5, s. 459-480
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders.Methods: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach.Findings: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable).Interpretation: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies.Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
|
|
43. |
- Lis, D. C., et al.
(författare)
-
Herschel/HIFI discovery of interstellar chloronium (H2Cl+)
- 2010
-
Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 521:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report the first detection of chloronium, H_2Cl^+, in the interstellar medium, using the HIFI instrument aboard the Herschel Space Observatory. The 2_12-1_01 lines of ortho-H\_2^35Cl^+ and ortho-H\_2^37Cl^+ are detected in absorption towards NGC 6334I, and the 1_11-0_00 transition of para-H\_2^35Cl^+ is detected in absorption towards NGC 6334I and Sgr B2(S). The H_2Cl^+ column densities are compared to those of the chemically-related species HCl. The derived HCl/H_2Cl^+ column density ratios, ~1-10, are within the range predicted by models of diffuse and dense photon dominated regions (PDRs). However, the observed H_2Cl^+ column densities, in excess of 10^13 cm^-2, are significantly higher than the model predictions. Our observations demonstrate the outstanding spectroscopic capabilities of HIFI for detecting new interstellar molecules and providing key constraints for astrochemical models.
|
|
44. |
- Lis, D. C., et al.
(författare)
-
Herschel/HIFI measurements of the ortho/para ratio in water towards Sagittarius B2(M) and W31C
- 2010
-
Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 521:1, s. Article Number: L26 -
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present Herschel/HIFI observations of the fundamental rotational transitions of ortho- and para-H216O and H218O in absorption towards Sagittarius B2(M) and W31C. The ortho/para ratio in water in the foreground clouds on the line of sight towards these bright continuum sources is generally consistent with the statistical high-temperature ratio of 3, within the observational uncertainties. However, somewhat unexpectedly, we derive a low ortho/para ratio of 2.35 +/- 0.35, corresponding to a spin temperature of similar to 27 K, towards Sagittarius B2(M) at velocities of the expanding molecular ring. Water molecules in this region appear to have formed with, or relaxed to, an ortho/para ratio close to the value corresponding to the local temperature of the gas and dust.
|
|
45. |
- Marseille, M. G., et al.
(författare)
-
Water abundances in high-mass protostellar envelopes : Herschel observations with HIFI
- 2010
-
Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 521, s. L32-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: We derive the dense core structure and the water abundance in four massive star-forming regions in the hope of understanding the earliest stages of massive star formation. Methods: We present Herschel/HIFI observations of the para-H2O 111-000 and 202-111 and the para-H_218O 111-000 transitions. The envelope contribution to the line profiles is separated from contributions by outflows and foreground clouds. The envelope contribution is modeled with Monte-Carlo radiative transfer codes for dust and molecular lines (MC3D and RATRAN), and the water abundance and the turbulent velocity width as free parameters. Results: While the outflows are mostly seen in emission in high-J lines, envelopes are seen in absorption in ground-state lines, which are almost saturated. The derived water abundances range from 5×10-10 to 4×10-8 in the outer envelopes. We detect cold clouds surrounding the protostar envelope, thanks to the very high quality of the Herschel/HIFI data and the unique ability of water to probe them. Several foreground clouds are also detected along the line of sight. Conclusions: The low H2O abundances in massive dense cores are in accordance with the expectation that high densities and low temperatures lead to freeze-out of water on dust grains. The spread in abundance values is not clearly linked to physical properties of the sources. Herschel is an ESA space observatory with science instruments provided by European-led Principal Investigator consortia and with important participation of NASA.Appendix (pages 6 to 7) is only available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org
|
|
46. |
|
|
47. |
- Rolffs, R., et al.
(författare)
-
Reversal of infall in SgrB2(M) revealed by Herschel/HIFI observations of HCN lines at THz frequencies
- 2010
-
Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 521:1, s. Article Number: L46 -
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims. To investigate the accretion and feedback processes in massive star formation, we analyze the shapes of emission lines from hot molecular cores, whose asymmetries trace infall and expansion motions. Methods. The high-mass star forming region SgrB2(M) was observed with Herschel/HIFI (HEXOS key project) in various lines of HCN and its isotopologues, complemented by APEX data. The observations are compared to spherically symmetric, centrally heated models with density power-law gradient and different velocity fields (infall or infall+expansion), using the radiative transfer code RATRAN. Results. The HCN line profiles are asymmetric, with the emission peak shifting from blue to red with increasing J and decreasing line opacity (HCN to (HCN)-C-13). This is most evident in the HCN 12-11 line at 1062 GHz. These line shapes are reproduced by a model whose velocity field changes from infall in the outer part to expansion in the inner part. Conclusions. The qualitative reproduction of the HCN lines suggests that infall dominates in the colder, outer regions, but expansion dominates in the warmer, inner regions. We are thus witnessing the onset of feedback in massive star formation, starting to reverse the infall and finally disrupting the whole molecular cloud. To obtain our result, the THz lines uniquely covered by HIFI were critically important.
|
|
48. |
- van der Tak, F. F. S., et al.
(författare)
-
Water abundance variations around high-mass protostars: HIFI observations of the DR21 region
- 2010
-
Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 518:Article Number: L107
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context. Water is a key molecule in the star formation process, but its spatial distribution in star-forming regions is not well known. Aims. We study the distribution of dust continuum and H2O and (CO)-C-13 line emission in DR21, a luminous star-forming region with a powerful outflow and a compact H II region. Methods. Herschel-HIFI spectra near 1100 GHz show narrow (CO)-C-13 10-9 emission and H2O 1(11)-0(00) absorption from the dense core and broad emission from the outflow in both lines. The H2O line also shows absorption by a foreground cloud known from ground-based observations of low-J CO lines. Results. The dust continuum emission is extended over 36 '' FWHM, while the (CO)-C-13 and H2O lines are confined to approximate to 24 '' or less. The foreground absorption appears to peak further North than the other components. Radiative transfer models indicate very low abundances of similar to 2 x 10(-10) for H2O and similar to 8 x 10(-7) for (CO)-C-13 in the dense core, and higher H2O abundances of similar to 4 x 10(-9) in the foreground cloud and similar to 7 x 10(-7) in the outflow. Conclusions. The high H2O abundance in the warm outflow is probably due to the evaporation of water-rich icy grain mantles, while the H2O abundance is kept down by freeze-out in the dense core and by photodissociation in the foreground cloud.
|
|
49. |
- Abazajian, Kevork, et al.
(författare)
-
CMB-S4 : Forecasting Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 926:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- CMB-S4—the next-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment—is set to significantly advance the sensitivity of CMB measurements and enhance our understanding of the origin and evolution of the universe. Among the science cases pursued with CMB-S4, the quest for detecting primordial gravitational waves is a central driver of the experimental design. This work details the development of a forecasting framework that includes a power-spectrum-based semianalytic projection tool, targeted explicitly toward optimizing constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r, in the presence of Galactic foregrounds and gravitational lensing of the CMB. This framework is unique in its direct use of information from the achieved performance of current Stage 2–3 CMB experiments to robustly forecast the science reach of upcoming CMB-polarization endeavors. The methodology allows for rapid iteration over experimental configurations and offers a flexible way to optimize the design of future experiments, given a desired scientific goal. To form a closed-loop process, we couple this semianalytic tool with map-based validation studies, which allow for the injection of additional complexity and verification of our forecasts with several independent analysis methods. We document multiple rounds of forecasts for CMB-S4 using this process and the resulting establishment of the current reference design of the primordial gravitational-wave component of the Stage-4 experiment, optimized to achieve our science goals of detecting primordial gravitational waves for r > 0.003 at greater than 5σ, or in the absence of a detection, of reaching an upper limit of r < 0.001 at 95% CL.
|
|
50. |
- Anderson, D. C., et al.
(författare)
-
Formaldehyde in the Tropical Western Pacific: Chemical Sources and Sinks, Convective Transport, and Representation in CAM-Chem and the CCMI Models
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 2169-897X. ; 122:20, s. 11201-11226
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Formaldehyde (HCHO) directly affects the atmospheric oxidative capacity through its effects on HOx. In remote marine environments, such as the tropical western Pacific (TWP), it is particularly important to understand the processes controlling the abundance of HCHO because model output from these regions is used to correct satellite retrievals of HCHO. Here we have used observations from the Convective Transport of Active Species in the Tropics (CONTRAST) field campaign, conducted during January and February 2014, to evaluate our understanding of the processes controlling the distribution of HCHO in the TWP as well as its representation in chemical transport/climate models. Observed HCHO mixing ratios varied from similar to 500 parts per trillion by volume (pptv) near the surface to similar to 75 pptv in the upper troposphere. Recent convective transport of near surface HCHO and its precursors, acetaldehyde and possibly methyl hydroperoxide, increased upper tropospheric HCHO mixing ratios by similar to 33% (22 pptv); this air contained roughly 60% less NO than more aged air. Output from the CAM-Chem chemistry transport model (2014 meteorology) as well as nine chemistry climate models from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (free-running meteorology) are found to uniformly underestimate HCHO columns derived from in situ observations by between 4 and 50%. This underestimate of HCHO likely results from a near factor of two underestimate of NO in most models, which strongly suggests errors in NOx emissions inventories and/or in the model chemical mechanisms. Likewise, the lack of oceanic acetaldehyde emissions and potential errors in the model acetaldehyde chemistry lead to additional underestimates in modeled HCHO of up to 75 pptv (similar to 15%) in the lower troposphere.
|
|