| 1. |
- Kim, Jae-Young, et al.
(författare)
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Event Horizon Telescope imaging of the archetypal blazar 3C 279 at an extreme 20 microarcsecond resolution
- 2020
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 640
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- 3C 279 is an archetypal blazar with a prominent radio jet that show broadband flux density variability across the entire electromagnetic spectrum. We use an ultra-high angular resolution technique - global Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) at 1.3mm (230 GHz) - to resolve the innermost jet of 3C 279 in order to study its fine-scale morphology close to the jet base where highly variable-ray emission is thought to originate, according to various models. The source was observed during four days in April 2017 with the Event Horizon Telescope at 230 GHz, including the phased Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array, at an angular resolution of ∼20 μas (at a redshift of z = 0:536 this corresponds to ∼0:13 pc ∼ 1700 Schwarzschild radii with a black hole mass MBH = 8 × 108 M⊙). Imaging and model-fitting techniques were applied to the data to parameterize the fine-scale source structure and its variation.We find a multicomponent inner jet morphology with the northernmost component elongated perpendicular to the direction of the jet, as imaged at longer wavelengths. The elongated nuclear structure is consistent on all four observing days and across diffierent imaging methods and model-fitting techniques, and therefore appears robust. Owing to its compactness and brightness, we associate the northern nuclear structure as the VLBI "core". This morphology can be interpreted as either a broad resolved jet base or a spatially bent jet.We also find significant day-to-day variations in the closure phases, which appear most pronounced on the triangles with the longest baselines. Our analysis shows that this variation is related to a systematic change of the source structure. Two inner jet components move non-radially at apparent speeds of ∼15 c and ∼20 c (∼1:3 and ∼1:7 μas day-1, respectively), which more strongly supports the scenario of traveling shocks or instabilities in a bent, possibly rotating jet. The observed apparent speeds are also coincident with the 3C 279 large-scale jet kinematics observed at longer (cm) wavelengths, suggesting no significant jet acceleration between the 1.3mm core and the outer jet. The intrinsic brightness temperature of the jet components are ≤1010 K, a magnitude or more lower than typical values seen at ≥7mm wavelengths. The low brightness temperature and morphological complexity suggest that the core region of 3C 279 becomes optically thin at short (mm) wavelengths.
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| 2. |
- Andreoni, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Target-of-opportunity Observations of Gravitational-wave Events with Vera C. Rubin Observatory
- 2022
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0067-0049 .- 1538-4365. ; 260:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The discovery of the electromagnetic counterpart to the binary neutron star (NS) merger GW170817 has opened the era of gravitational-wave multimessenger astronomy. Rapid identification of the optical/infrared kilonova enabled a precise localization of the source, which paved the way to deep multiwavelength follow-up and its myriad of related science results. Fully exploiting this new territory of exploration requires the acquisition of electromagnetic data from samples of NS mergers and other gravitational-wave sources. After GW170817, the frontier is now to map the diversity of kilonova properties and provide more stringent constraints on the Hubble constant, and enable new tests of fundamental physics. The Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time can play a key role in this field in the 2020s, when an improved network of gravitational-wave detectors is expected to reach a sensitivity that will enable the discovery of a high rate of merger events involving NSs (∼tens per year) out to distances of several hundred megaparsecs. We design comprehensive target-of-opportunity observing strategies for follow-up of gravitational-wave triggers that will make the Rubin Observatory the premier instrument for discovery and early characterization of NS and other compact-object mergers, and yet unknown classes of gravitational-wave events.
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| 3. |
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- 2019
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Aad, G., et al.
(författare)
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Commissioning of the ATLAS Muon Spectrometer with cosmic rays
- 2010
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Ingår i: European Physical Journal C. Particles and Fields. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1434-6044 .- 1434-6052. ; 70:3, s. 875-916
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider has collected several hundred million cosmic ray events during 2008 and 2009. These data were used to commission the Muon Spectrometer and to study the performance of the trigger and tracking chambers, their alignment, the detector control system, the data acquisition and the analysis programs. We present the performance in the relevant parameters that determine the quality of the muon measurement. We discuss the single element efficiency, resolution and noise rates, the calibration method of the detector response and of the alignment system, the track reconstruction efficiency and the momentum measurement. The results show that the detector is close to the design performance and that the Muon Spectrometer is ready to detect muons produced in high energy proton-proton collisions.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
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| 11. |
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| 12. |
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| 13. |
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| 14. |
- Aad, G., et al.
(författare)
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Readiness of the ATLAS Tile Calorimeter for LHC collisions
- 2010
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Ingår i: European Physical Journal C. Particles and Fields. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1434-6044 .- 1434-6052. ; 70:4, s. 1193-1236
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Tile hadronic calorimeter of the ATLAS detector has undergone extensive testing in the experimental hall since its installation in late 2005. The readout, control and calibration systems have been fully operational since 2007 and the detector has successfully collected data from the LHC single beams in 2008 and first collisions in 2009. This paper gives an overview of the Tile Calorimeter performance as measured using random triggers, calibration data, data from cosmic ray muons and single beam data. The detector operation status, noise characteristics and performance of the calibration systems are presented, as well as the validation of the timing and energy calibration carried out with minimum ionising cosmic ray muons data. The calibration systems' precision is well below the design value of 1%. The determination of the global energy scale was performed with an uncertainty of 4%.
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| 15. |
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| 16. |
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| 17. |
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| 18. |
- Aad, G., et al.
(författare)
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Studies of the performance of the ATLAS detector using cosmic-ray muons
- 2011
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Ingår i: European Physical Journal C. Particles and Fields. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1434-6044 .- 1434-6052. ; 71:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Muons from cosmic-ray interactions in the atmosphere provide a high-statistics source of particles that can be used to study the performance and calibration of the ATLAS detector. Cosmic-ray muons can penetrate to the cavern and deposit energy in all detector subsystems. Such events have played an important role in the commissioning of the detector since the start of the installation phase in 2005 and were particularly important for understanding the detector performance in the time prior to the arrival of the first LHC beams. Global cosmic-ray runs were undertaken in both 2008 and 2009 and these data have been used through to the early phases of collision data-taking as a tool for calibration, alignment and detector monitoring. These large datasets have also been used for detector performance studies, including investigations that rely on the combined performance of different subsystems. This paper presents the results of performance studies related to combined tracking, lepton identification and the reconstruction of jets and missing transverse energy. Results are compared to expectations based on a cosmic-ray event generator and a full simulation of the detector response.
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| 19. |
- Aad, G., et al.
(författare)
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The ATLAS Inner Detector commissioning and calibration
- 2010
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Ingår i: European Physical Journal C. Particles and Fields. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1434-6044 .- 1434-6052. ; 70:3, s. 787-821
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The ATLAS Inner Detector is a composite tracking system consisting of silicon pixels, silicon strips and straw tubes in a 2 T magnetic field. Its installation was completed in August 2008 and the detector took part in data-taking with single LHC beams and cosmic rays. The initial detector operation, hardware commissioning and in-situ calibrations are described. Tracking performance has been measured with 7.6 million cosmic-ray events, collected using a tracking trigger and reconstructed with modular pattern-recognition and fitting software. The intrinsic hit efficiency and tracking trigger efficiencies are close to 100%. Lorentz angle measurements for both electrons and holes, specific energy-loss calibration and transition radiation turn-on measurements have been performed. Different alignment techniques have been used to reconstruct the detector geometry. After the initial alignment, a transverse impact parameter resolution of 22.1 +/- 0.9 mu m and a relative momentum resolution sigma (p) /p=(4.83 +/- 0.16)x10(-4) GeV(-1)xp (T) have been measured for high momentum tracks.
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| 20. |
- Aad, G., et al.
(författare)
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The ATLAS Simulation Infrastructure
- 2010
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Ingår i: European Physical Journal C. Particles and Fields. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1434-6044 .- 1434-6052. ; 70:3, s. 823-874
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The simulation software for the ATLAS Experiment at the Large Hadron Collider is being used for large-scale production of events on the LHC Computing Grid. This simulation requires many components, from the generators that simulate particle collisions, through packages simulating the response of the various detectors and triggers. All of these components come together under the ATLAS simulation infrastructure. In this paper, that infrastructure is discussed, including that supporting the detector description, interfacing the event generation, and combining the GEANT4 simulation of the response of the individual detectors. Also described are the tools allowing the software validation, performance testing, and the validation of the simulated output against known physics processes.
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| 21. |
- Akiyama, Kazunori, et al.
(författare)
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First Sagittarius A* Event Horizon Telescope Results. II. EHT and Multiwavelength Observations, Data Processing, and Calibration
- 2022
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8213 .- 2041-8205. ; 930:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) 1.3 mm measurements of the radio source located at the position of the supermassive black hole Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*), collected during the 2017 April 5-11 campaign. The observations were carried out with eight facilities at six locations across the globe. Novel calibration methods are employed to account for Sgr A*'s flux variability. The majority of the 1.3 mm emission arises from horizon scales, where intrinsic structural source variability is detected on timescales of minutes to hours. The effects of interstellar scattering on the image and its variability are found to be subdominant to intrinsic source structure. The calibrated visibility amplitudes, particularly the locations of the visibility minima, are broadly consistent with a blurred ring with a diameter of similar to 50 mu as, as determined in later works in this series. Contemporaneous multiwavelength monitoring of Sgr A* was performed at 22, 43, and 86 GHz and at near-infrared and X-ray wavelengths. Several X-ray flares from Sgr A* are detected by Chandra, one at low significance jointly with Swift on 2017 April 7 and the other at higher significance jointly with NuSTAR on 2017 April 11. The brighter April 11 flare is not observed simultaneously by the EHT but is followed by a significant increase in millimeter flux variability immediately after the X-ray outburst, indicating a likely connection in the emission physics near the event horizon. We compare Sgr A*'s broadband flux during the EHT campaign to its historical spectral energy distribution and find that both the quiescent emission and flare emission are consistent with its long-term behavior.
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| 22. |
- Balbi, Stefano, et al.
(författare)
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Human dependence on natural resources in rapidly urbanising South African regions
- 2019
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 14:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Enhancing the governance of social-ecological systems for more equitable and sustainable development is hindered by inadequate knowledge about how different social groups and communities rely on natural resources. We used openly accessible national survey data to develop a metric of overall dependence on natural resources. These data contain information about households' sources of water, energy, building materials and food. We used these data in combination with Bayesian learning to model observed patterns of dependence using demographic variables that included: gender of household head, household size, income, house ownership, formality status of settlement, population density, and in-migration rate to the area. We show that a small number of factors-in particular population density and informality of settlements-can explain a significant amount of the observed variation with regards to the use of natural resources. Subsequently, we test the validity of these predictions using alternative, open access data in the eThekwini and Cape Town metropolitan areas of South Africa. We discuss the advantages of using a selection of predictors which could be supplied through remotely sensed and open access data, in terms of opportunities and challenges to produce meaningful results in data-poor areas. With data availability being a common limiting factor in modelling and monitoring exercises, access to inexpensive, up-to-date and free to use data can significantly improve how we monitor progress towards sustainability targets. A small selection of openly accessible demographic variables can predict household's dependence on local natural resources.
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| 23. |
- Biggs, Reinette, et al.
(författare)
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Social-ecological change : insights from the Southern African Program on Ecosystem Change and Society
- 2022
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Ingår i: Ecosystems and People. - : Informa UK Limited. - 2639-5908 .- 2639-5916. ; 18:1, s. 447-468
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Social-ecological systems (SES) research has emerged as an important area of sustainability science, informing and supporting pressing issues of transformation towards more sustainable, just and equitable futures. To date, much SES research has been done in or from the Global North, where the challenges and contexts for supporting sustainability transformations are substantially different from the Global South. This paper synthesises emerging insights on SES dynamics that can inform actions and advance research to support sustainability transformations specifically in the southern African context. The paper draws on work linked to members of the Southern African Program on Ecosystem Change and Society (SAPECS), a leading SES research network in the region, synthesizing key insights with respect to the five core themes of SAPECS: (i) transdisciplinary and engaged research, (ii) ecosystem services and human well-being, (iii) governance institutions and management practices, (iv) spatial relationships and cross-scale connections, and (v) regime shifts, traps and transformations. For each theme, we focus on insights that are particularly novel, interesting or important in the southern African context, and reflect on key research gaps and emerging frontiers for SES research in the region going forward. Such place-based insights are important for understanding the variation in SES dynamics around the world, and are crucial for informing a context-sensitive global agenda to foster sustainability transformations at local to global scales.
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| 24. |
- Biggs, Reinette, et al.
(författare)
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The Southern African Program on Ecosystem Change and Society : an emergent community of practice
- 2023
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Ingår i: Ecosystems and People. - : Informa UK Limited. - 2639-5908 .- 2639-5916. ; 19:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Sustainability-focused research networks and communities of practice have emerged as a key response and strategy to build capacity and knowledge to support transformation towards more sustainable, just and equitable futures. This paper synthesises insights from the development of a community of practice on social-ecological systems (SES) research in southern Africa over the past decade, linked to the international Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS). This community consists of a network of researchers who carry out place-based SES research in the southern African region. They interact through various cross-cutting working groups and also host a variety of public colloquia and student and practitioner training events. Known as the Southern African Program on Ecosystem Change and Society (SAPECS), its core objectives are to: (1) derive new approaches and empirical insights on SES dynamics in the southern African context; (2) have a tangible impact by mainstreaming knowledge into policy and practice; and (3) grow the community of practice engaged in SES research and governance, including researchers, students and practitioners. This paper reflects on experiences in building the SAPECS community, with the aim of supporting the development of similar networks elsewhere in the world, particularly in the Global South.
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| 25. |
- Eddy, Tyler D., et al.
(författare)
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Energy Flow Through Marine Ecosystems : Confronting Transfer Efficiency
- 2021
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Ingår i: Trends in Ecology & Evolution. - : Elsevier BV. - 0169-5347 .- 1872-8383. ; 36:1, s. 76-86
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Transfer efficiency is the proportion of energy passed between nodes in food webs. It is an emergent, unitless property that is difficult to measure, and responds dynamically to environmental and ecosystem changes. Because the consequences of changes in transfer efficiency compound through ecosystems, slight variations can have large effects on food availability for top predators. Here, we review the processes controlling transfer efficiency, approaches to estimate it, and known variations across ocean biomes. Both process-level analysis and observed macro-scale variations suggest that ecosystem-scale transfer efficiency is highly variable, impacted by fishing, and will decline with climate change. It is important that we more fully resolve the processes controlling transfer efficiency in models to effectively anticipate changes in marine ecosystems and fisheries resources.
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| 26. |
- Fong, Wen-fai, et al.
(författare)
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Short GRB Host Galaxies. I. Photometric and Spectroscopic Catalogs, Host Associations, and Galactocentric Offsets
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 940:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a comprehensive optical and near-infrared census of the fields of 90 short gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) discovered in 2005–2021, constituting all short GRBs for which host galaxy associations are feasible (≈60% of the total Swift short GRB population). We contribute 274 new multi-band imaging observations across 58 distinct GRBs and 26 spectra of their host galaxies. Supplemented by literature and archival survey data, the catalog contains 542 photometric and 42 spectroscopic data sets. The photometric catalog reaches 3σ depths of ≳24–27 mag and ≳23–26 mag for the optical and near-infrared bands, respectively. We identify host galaxies for 84 bursts, in which the most robust associations make up 56% (50/90) of events, while only a small fraction, 6.7%, have inconclusive host associations. Based on new spectroscopy, we determine 18 host spectroscopic redshifts with a range of z ≈ 0.15–1.5 and find that ≈23%–41% of Swift short GRBs originate from z > 1. We also present the galactocentric offset catalog for 84 short GRBs. Taking into account the large range of individual measurement uncertainties, we find a median of projected offset of ≈7.7 kpc, for which the bursts with the most robust associations have a smaller median of ≈4.8 kpc. Our catalog captures more high-redshift and low-luminosity hosts, and more highly offset bursts than previously found, thereby diversifying the population of known short GRB hosts and properties. In terms of locations and host luminosities, the populations of short GRBs with and without detectable extended emission are statistically indistinguishable. This suggests that they arise from the same progenitors, or from multiple progenitors, which form and evolve in similar environments. All of the data products are available on the Broadband Repository for Investigating Gamma-Ray Burst Host Traits website.
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| 27. |
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| 28. |
- Jacobson-Galán, Wynn V., et al.
(författare)
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Late-time Observations of Calcium-rich Transient SN 2019ehk Reveal a Pure Radioactive Decay Power Source
- 2021
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8205 .- 2041-8213. ; 908:2
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present multiband Hubble Space Telescope imaging of the calcium-rich supernova (SN) SN 2019ehk at 276-389 days after explosion. These observations represent the latest B-band to near-IR photometric measurements of a calcium-rich transient to date and allow for the first opportunity to analyze the late-time bolometric evolution of an object in this observational SN class. We find that the late-time bolometric light curve of SN 2019ehk can be described predominantly through the radioactive decay of 56Co for which we derive a mass of M(56Co) = (2.8 ± 0.1) × 10-2 M o. Furthermore, the rate of decline in bolometric luminosity requires the leakage of γ-rays on timescale t γ = 53.9 ± 1.30 days, but we find no statistical evidence for incomplete positron trapping in the SN ejecta. While our observations cannot constrain the exact masses of other radioactive isotopes synthesized in SN 2019ehk, we estimate a mass ratio limit of M(57Co)/M(56Co) ≤ 0.030. This limit is consistent with the explosive nucleosynthesis produced in the merger of low-mass white dwarfs, which is one of the favored progenitor scenarios in early-time studies of SN 2019ehk.
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| 29. |
- Labit, B., et al.
(författare)
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Dependence on plasma shape and plasma fueling for small edge-localized mode regimes in TCV and ASDEX Upgrade
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nuclear Fusion. - : IOP Publishing. - 1741-4326 .- 0029-5515. ; 59:8
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- © 2019 Institute of Physics Publishing. All rights reserved. Within the EUROfusion MST1 work package, a series of experiments has been conducted on AUG and TCV devices to disentangle the role of plasma fueling and plasma shape for the onset of small ELM regimes. On both devices, small ELM regimes with high confinement are achieved if and only if two conditions are fulfilled at the same time. Firstly, the plasma density at the separatrix must be large enough (ne,sep/nG ∼ 0.3), leading to a pressure profile flattening at the separatrix, which stabilizes type-I ELMs. Secondly, the magnetic configuration has to be close to a double null (DN), leading to a reduction of the magnetic shear in the extreme vicinity of the separatrix. As a consequence, its stabilizing effect on ballooning modes is weakened.
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| 30. |
- Nicholl, Matt, et al.
(författare)
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An extremely energetic supernova from a very massive star in a dense medium
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature Astronomy. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-3366. ; 4, s. 893-899
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The interaction of a supernova with a circumstellar medium (CSM) can dramatically increase the emitted luminosity by converting kinetic energy to thermal energy. In 'superluminous' supernovae of type IIn-named for narrow hydrogen lines(1) in their spectra-the integrated emission can reach(2-6) similar to 10(51) erg, attainable by thermalizing most of the kinetic energy of a conventional supernova. A few transients in the centres of active galaxies have shown similar spectra and even larger energies(7,8), but are difficult to distinguish from accretion onto the supermassive black hole. Here we present a new event, SN2016aps, offset from the centre of a low-mass galaxy, that radiated greater than or similar to 5 x 10(51) erg, necessitating a hyper-energetic supernova explosion. We find a total (supernova ejecta + CSM) mass likely exceeding 50-100 M-circle dot, with energy greater than or similar to 10(52) erg, consistent with some models of pair-instability supernovae or pulsational pair-instability supernovae-theoretically predicted thermonuclear explosions from helium cores >50 M-circle dot. Independent of the explosion mechanism, this event demonstrates the existence of extremely energetic stellar explosions, detectable at very high redshifts, and provides insight into dense CSM formation in the most massive stars.
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| 31. |
- Sitas, Nadia, et al.
(författare)
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Exploring the usefulness of scenario archetypes in science-policy processes : experience across IPBES assessments
- 2019
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Ingår i: Ecology and Society. - 1708-3087. ; 24:3
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Scenario analyses have been used in multiple science-policy assessments to better understand complex plausible futures. Scenario archetype approaches are based on the fact that many future scenarios have similar underlying storylines, assumptions, and trends in drivers of change, which allows for grouping of scenarios into typologies, or archetypes, facilitating comparisons between a large range of studies. The use of scenario archetypes in environmental assessments foregrounds important policy questions and can be used to codesign interventions tackling future sustainability issues. Recently, scenario archetypes were used in four regional assessments and one ongoing global assessment within the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). The aim of these assessments was to provide decision makers with policy-relevant knowledge about the state of biodiversity, ecosystems, and the contributions they provide to people. This paper reflects on the usefulness of the scenario archetype approach within science-policy processes, drawing on the experience from the IPBES assessments. Using a thematic analysis of (a) survey data collected from experts involved in the archetype analyses across IPBES assessments, (b) notes from IPBES workshops, and (c) regional assessment chapter texts, we synthesize the benefits, challenges, and frontiers of applying the scenario archetype approach in a science-policy process. Scenario archetypes were perceived to allow syntheses of large amounts of information for scientific, practice-, and policy-related purposes, streamline key messages from multiple scenario studies, and facilitate communication of them to end users. In terms of challenges, they were perceived as subjective in their interpretation, oversimplifying information, having a limited applicability across scales, and concealing contextual information and novel narratives. Finally, our results highlight what methodologies, applications, and frontiers in archetype-based research should be explored in the future. These advances can assist the design of future large-scale sustainability-related assessment processes, aiming to better support decisions and interventions for equitable and sustainable futures.
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| 32. |
- Willcock, Simon, et al.
(författare)
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A Continental-Scale Validation of Ecosystem Service Models
- 2019
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Ingår i: Ecosystems. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1432-9840 .- 1435-0629. ; 22:8, s. 1902-1917
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Faced with environmental degradation, governments worldwide are developing policies to safeguard ecosystem services (ES). Many ES models exist to support these policies, but they are generally poorly validated, especially at large scales, which undermines their credibility. To address this gap, we describe a study of multiple models of five ES, which we validate at an unprecedented scale against 1675 data points across sub-Saharan Africa. We find that potential ES (biophysical supply of carbon and water) are reasonably well predicted by the existing models. These potential ES models can also be used as inputs to new models for realised ES (use of charcoal, firewood, grazing resources and water), by adding information on human population density. We find that increasing model complexity can improve estimates of both potential and realised ES, suggesting that developing more detailed models of ES will be beneficial. Furthermore, in 85% of cases, human population density alone was as good or a better predictor of realised ES than ES models, suggesting that it is demand, rather than supply that is predominantly determining current patterns of ES use. Our study demonstrates the feasibility of ES model validation, even in data-deficient locations such as sub-Saharan Africa. Our work also shows the clear need for more work on the demand side of ES models, and the importance of model validation in providing a stronger base to support policies which seek to achieve sustainable development in support of human well-being.
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| 33. |
- Willcock, Simon, et al.
(författare)
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Ensembles of ecosystem service models can improve accuracy and indicate uncertainty
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 747
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Many ecosystem services (ES) models exist to support sustainable development decisions. However, most ES studies use only a single modelling framework and, because of a lack of validation data, rarely assess model accuracy for the study area. In line with other research themes which have high model uncertainty, such as climate change, ensembles of ES models may better serve decision-makers by providing more robust and accurate estimates, as well as provide indications of uncertainty when validation data are not available. To illustrate the benefits of an ensemble approach, we highlight the variation between alternative models, demonstrating that there are large geographic regions where decisions based on individual models are not robust. We test if ensembles are more accurate by comparing the ensemble accuracy of multiple models for six ES against validation data across sub-Saharan Africa with the accuracy of individual models. We find that ensembles are better predictors of ES, being 5.0-6.1% more accurate than individual models. We also find that the uncertainty (i.e. variation among constituent models) of the model ensemble is negatively correlated with accuracy and so can be used as a proxy for accuracy when validation is not possible (e.g. in data-deficient areas or when developing scenarios). Since ensembles are more robust, accurate and convey uncertainty, we recommend that ensemble modelling should be more widely implemented within ES science to better support policy choices and implementation.
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| 34. |
- Aad, G., et al.
(författare)
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- 2011
-
swepub:Mat__t (refereegranskat)
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| 35. |
- Aad, G., et al.
(författare)
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- 2011
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 36. |
- Aad, G., et al.
(författare)
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- 2012
-
swepub:Mat__t (refereegranskat)
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| 37. |
- Aad, G., et al.
(författare)
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- 2012
-
swepub:Mat__t (refereegranskat)
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| 38. |
- Aad, G., et al.
(författare)
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- 2011
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swepub:Mat__t (refereegranskat)
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| 39. |
- Aad, G., et al.
(författare)
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- 2013
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swepub:Mat__t (refereegranskat)
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| 40. |
- Aad, G., et al.
(författare)
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- 2012
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swepub:Mat__t (refereegranskat)
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| 41. |
- Aad, G., et al.
(författare)
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- 2012
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swepub:Mat__t (refereegranskat)
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| 42. |
- Aad, G., et al.
(författare)
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- 2012
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swepub:Mat__t (refereegranskat)
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| 43. |
- Aad, G., et al.
(författare)
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- 2012
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swepub:Mat__t (refereegranskat)
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| 44. |
- Aad, G., et al.
(författare)
-
- 2012
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