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| 2. |
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Ammar, Yosr, et al.
(författare)
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Exploring future ecosystem novelty and resilience using the adaptive cycle
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Marine ecosystems worldwide are under unprecedented pressure from the impacts of climate change and human activities. Such pressure increased novelty in species assemblages, i.e., assemblages increasingly outside their historical range of variation. It may further rise in the future, and whether it will unfold and influence resilience remains unclear. Using the adaptive cycle, we explore the relationship between resilience and novelty under the compound effect of climate, nutrient load, and fishing management scenarios in the Finnish Archipelago Sea (FAS) future food web model. Novelty was measured as the minimum dissimilarity over time relative to a specific baseline. Ecological Network Analysis indices associated to the model: ascendancy, capacity, and overhead flow, were used as indicators of connectedness, potential, and resilience axes of the adaptive cycle. A model-based clustering method distinguished four regimes determined by the impact of the nutrient load and climate on the bottom-up dynamic of the FAS food web. Resilience decreased in regimes where higher and faster novelty emerged in response to warmer climate pathways. The number of reorganization phases of the adaptive cycle, characterized by the generation of novelty, was greater in regimes under low nutrient load management scenarios. We highlight the importance of understanding ecosystem reorganization and resilience in a growing Anthropogenic novelty to inform future management.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Bergström, Lena, et al.
(författare)
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Report of the ICES/HELCOM Working Group on Integrated Assessments of the Baltic Sea (WGIAB)
- 2015
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The ICES/HELCOM Working Group on Integrated Assessments of the Baltic Sea(WGIAB) was established in 2007 as a forum for developing and combining ecosystembasedmanagement efforts for the Baltic Sea. The group intends to serve as a scientificcounterpart and support for the ICES Baltic Fisheries Assessment Working Group(WGBFAS) as well as for efforts and projects related to Integrated Ecosystem Assessments(IEA) within ICES and HELCOM. The group works in cooperation with similargroups within the ACOM/SCICOM Steering Group on Integrated Ecosystem Assessments(SSGIEA).The 2015 WGIAB meeting was held in Cádiz, Spain, from 9–13 March, back-to-backwith the meeting of its counterpart in the Working Group on Ecosystem Assessmentof Western European Shelf Seas (WGEAWESS). The meetings had joint sessions as wellas WG specific work, and some participants effectively participated in both meetings.The WGIAB meeting was attended by 27 participants from nine countries. The meetingwas chaired by Christian Möllmann, Germany, Laura Uusitalo, Finland and Lena Bergström,Sweden.This was the last year of the ongoing three-year Terms of Reference (ToR) for WGIAB.The main working activities in 2015 were to i) conduct studies on Baltic Sea ecosystemfunctioning with the goal to publish case studies from different parts of the Baltic Seain peer-reviewed journals, ii) work on the demonstration exercise to develop ecosystem-based assessment and advice for Baltic fish stocks focusing on cod (DEMO) withmultiple approaches, iii) plan further how to integrate the social and economic aspectsmore tightly in the WGIAB work, and iv) discuss the future focus and format of theWGIAB work.The Baltic ecosystem functioning activity focused on identifying and exploring keytrends and linkages in the Baltic Sea foodweb. This was pursued by presentation andfurther discussion of ongoing intersessional work on foodweb modelling and integratedanalyses, and by exercises to develop conceptual models Baltic Sea foodwebsand the links to ecosystem function. Long-term monitoring datasets on the abiotic andbiotic parts of the Baltic Sea Proper ecosystem were updated for use in the continuedwork to develop environmental indicators for fisheries and marine management.The focus of the DEMO 3 (DEMOnstration exercise for Integrated Ecosystem Assessmentand Advice of Baltic Sea cod) was on finding a way to use the results from theDEMO1 and DEMO2 workshops in short and midterm projections/scenarios of Balticcod dynamics based on different types of modelling, as well as designing methodologyand modelling data for practical implementation of Integrated Advice for Baltic cod.The WGIAB was positively inclined towards including social and economic aspectsinto the integrated assessment. Openings to this path were provided by presentationon ongoing project work, and discussing their linkages to ecological aspects. It wasseen as crucial that experts on social and economic analysis should be included andtake an active part in the future work of the group.The group concluded that its upcoming work should focus more closely on functionaldiversity, which was identified as a recurring issue in the Baltic Sea. This approach wasalso identified as a useful connection point between scientific and management aspectsin order for the group to continue serving as a forum for developing ecosystem-basedmanagement efforts in the Baltic Sea. A focus on functional diversity was also seen as2 | ICES WGIAB REPORT 2015a potentially feasible way of bringing together management aspects for different sectors,by linking to ecosystem services concepts.The group proposed Saskia Otto, Germany and Martin Lindegren, Denmark as newincoming Chairs, together with Lena Bergström, Sweden and Laura Uusitalo, Finland.Having four Chairs is justified due to the wide scope of the group's work, as well asthe increased work load due to the planned new foci.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Blenckner, T.
(författare)
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Models as tools for understanding past, recent and future changes in large lakes.
- 2008
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Ingår i: Hydrobiologia. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0018-8158 .- 1573-5117. ; 599, s. 177-182
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Large lakes currently exhibit ecosystem responses to environmental changes such as climate and land use changes, nutrient loading, toxic contaminants, hydrological modifications and invasive species. These sources have impacted lake ecosystems over a number of years in various combinations and often in a spatially heterogeneous pattern. At the same time, many different kinds of mathematical models have been developed to help to understand ecosystem processes and improve cost-effective management. Here, the advantages and limitations of models and sources of uncertainty will be discussed. From these considerations and in view of the multiple environmental pressures, the following emerging issues still have to be met in order to improve the understanding of ecosystem function and management of large lakes: (1) the inclusion of thresholds and points-of-no-return; (2) construction of general models to simulate biogeochemical processes for a large number of lakes rather than for individual systems; (3) improvement of the understanding of spatio-temporal variability to quantify biogeochemical fluxes accurately; and (4) inclusion of biogeochemical linkages between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in model approaches to assess the effects of external environmental pressures such as land-use changes. The inclusion of the above-mentioned issues would substantially improve models as tools for the scientific understanding and cost-effective management of large lakes that are subject to multiple environmental pressures in a changing future.
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| 11. |
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| 12. |
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| 13. |
- Dokulil, Martin T., et al.
(författare)
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Twenty years of spatially coherent deepwater warming in lakes across Europe related to the North Atlantic Oscillation
- 2006
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Ingår i: Limnology and Oceanography. - 0024-3590 .- 1939-5590. ; 51:6, s. 2787-2793
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Twenty to fifty years of annual mean deepwater (hypolimnetic) temperature data from twelve deep lakes spaced across Europe (2 degrees 95'W to 14 degrees 0'E, 46 degrees 27' to 59 degrees 00'N) show a high degree of coherence among lakes, particularly within geographic regions. Hypolimnetic temperatures vary between years but increased consistently in all lakes by about 0.1 - 0.2 degrees C per decade. The observed increase was related to the weather generated by large-scale climatic processes over the Atlantic. To be effective, the climatic signal from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) must affect deep lakes in spring before the onset of thermal stratification. The most consistent predictor of hypolimnetic temperature is the mean NAO index for January-May (NAO(J-M)), which explains 22-63% of the interannual variation in deepwater temperature in 10 of the 12 lakes. The two exceptions are remote, less wind-exposed alpine valley lakes. In four of the deepest lakes, the climate signal fades with depth. The projected hypolimnetic temperature increase of approximately 1 degrees C in 100 yr, obtained using a conservative approach, seems small. Effects on mixing conditions, thermal stability, or the replenishment of oxygen to deep waters result in accumulation of nutrients, which in turn will affect the trophic status and the food web.
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| 14. |
- Franke, A., et al.
(författare)
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Operationalizing Ocean Health : Toward Integrated Research on Ocean Health and Recovery to Achieve Ocean Sustainability
- 2020
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Ingår i: One Earth. - : Elsevier BV. - 2590-3330 .- 2590-3322. ; 2:6, s. 557-565
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Protecting the ocean has become a major goal of international policy as human activities increasingly endanger the integrity of the ocean ecosystem, often summarized as “ocean health.” By and large, efforts to protect the ocean have failed because, among other things, (1) the underlying socio-ecological pathways have not been properly considered, and (2) the concept of ocean health has been ill defined. Collectively, this prevents an adequate societal response as to how ocean ecosystems and their vital functions for human societies can be protected and restored. We review the confusion surrounding the term “ocean health” and suggest an operational ocean-health framework in line with the concept of strong sustainability. Given the accelerating degeneration of marine ecosystems, the restoration of regional ocean health will be of increasing importance. Our advocated transdisciplinary and multi-actor framework can help to advance the implementation of more active measures to restore ocean health and safeguard human health and well-being.
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| 15. |
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| 16. |
- Gårdmark, Anna, et al.
(författare)
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Biological ensemble modeling to evaluate potential futures of living marine resources
- 2013
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Ingår i: Ecological Applications. - : Wiley. - 1051-0761 .- 1939-5582. ; 23:4, s. 742-754
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Natural resource management requires approaches to understand and handle sources of uncertainty in future responses of complex systems to human activities. Here we present one such approach, the biological ensemble modeling approach,'' using the Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias) as an example. The core of the approach is to expose an ensemble of models with different ecological assumptions to climate forcing, using multiple realizations of each climate scenario. We simulated the long-term response of cod to future fishing and climate change in seven ecological models ranging from single-species to food web models. These models were analyzed using the biological ensemble modeling approach'' by which we (1) identified a key ecological mechanism explaining the differences in simulated cod responses between models, (2) disentangled the uncertainty caused by differences in ecological model assumptions from the statistical uncertainty of future climate, and (3) identified results common for the whole model ensemble. Species interactions greatly influenced the simulated response of cod to fishing and climate, as well as the degree to which the statistical uncertainty of climate trajectories carried through to uncertainty of cod responses. Models ignoring the feedback from prey on cod showed large interannual fluctuations in cod dynamics and were more sensitive to the underlying uncertainty of climate forcing than models accounting for such stabilizing predator-prey feedbacks. Yet in all models, intense fishing prevented recovery, and climate change further decreased the cod population. Our study demonstrates how the biological ensemble modeling approach makes it possible to evaluate the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty in future species responses, as well as to seek scientific conclusions and sustainable management solutions robust to uncertainty of food web processes in the face of climate change.
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| 17. |
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| 18. |
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| 19. |
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| 20. |
- Lynham, J., et al.
(författare)
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Costly stakeholder participation creates inertia in marine ecosystems
- 2017
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Ingår i: Marine Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0308-597X .- 1872-9460. ; 76, s. 122-129
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Ecosystems often shift abruptly and dramatically between different regimes in response to human or natural disturbances. When ecosystems tip from one regime to another, the suite of available ecosystem benefits changes, impacting the stakeholders who rely on these benefits. These changes often create some groups who stand to incur large losses if an ecosystem returns to a previous regime. When the participation cost in the decision-making process is extremely high, this can lock in ecosystem regimes, making it harder for policy and management to shift ecosystems out of what the majority of society views as the undesirable regime. Public stakeholder meetings often have high costs of participation, thus economic theory predicts they will be dominated by extreme views and often lead to decisions that do not represent the majority viewpoint. Such extreme viewpoints can create strong inertia even when there is broad consensus to manage an ecosystem towards a different regime. In the same manner that reinforcing ecological feedback loops make it harder to exit an ecosystem regime, there are decision-making feedback loops that contribute additional inertia.
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| 21. |
- MacKenzie, Brian R., et al.
(författare)
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Impact of Climate Change on Fish Population Dynamics in the Baltic Sea : A Dynamical Downscaling Investigation
- 2012
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Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 41:6, s. 626-636
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties.
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| 22. |
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| 23. |
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| 24. |
- Niiranen, Susa, et al.
(författare)
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Combined effects of global climate change and regional ecosystem drivers on an exploited marine food web
- 2013
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 19:11, s. 3327-3342
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Changes in climate, in combination with intensive exploitation of marine resources, have caused large-scale reorganizations in many of the world's marine ecosystems during the past decades. The Baltic Sea in Northern Europe is one of the systems most affected. In addition to being exposed to persistent eutrophication, intensive fishing, and one of the world's fastest rates of warming in the last two decades of the 20th century, accelerated climate change including atmospheric warming and changes in precipitation is projected for this region during the 21st century. Here, we used a new multi-model approach to project how the interaction of climate, nutrient loads and cod fishing may affect the future of the open Central Baltic Sea food web. Regionally downscaled global climate scenarios were, in combination with three nutrient load scenarios, used to drive an ensemble of three regional biogeochemical models (BGMs). An Ecopath with Ecosim food web model was then forced with the BGM results from different nutrient-climate scenarios in combination with two different cod fishing scenarios. The results showed that regional management is likely to play a major role in determining the future of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. By the end of the 21st century, for example, the combination of intensive cod fishing and high nutrient loads projected a strongly eutrophicated and sprat-dominated ecosystem, while low cod fishing in combination with low nutrient loads resulted in a cod-dominated ecosystem with eutrophication levels close to present. Also, non-linearities were observed in the sensitivity of different trophic groups to nutrient loads or fishing depending on the combination of the two. Finally, many climate variables and species biomasses were projected to levels unseen in the past. Hence, the risk for ecological surprises needs to be addressed, particularly when the results are discussed in the ecosystem-based management context.
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| 25. |
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| 26. |
- Niiranen, Susa, et al.
(författare)
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Uncertainties in a Baltic Sea Food-Web Model Reveal Challenges for Future Projections
- 2012
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Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 41:6, s. 613-625
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Models that can project ecosystem dynamics under changing environmental conditions are in high demand. The application of such models, however, requires model validation together with analyses of model uncertainties, which are both often overlooked. We carried out a simplified model uncertainty and sensitivity analysis on an Ecopath with Ecosim food-web model of the Baltic Proper (BaltProWeb) and found the model sensitive to both variations in the input data of pre-identified key groups and environmental forcing. Model uncertainties grew particularly high in future climate change scenarios. For example, cod fishery recommendations that resulted in viable stocks in the original model failed after data uncertainties were introduced. In addition, addressing the trophic control dynamics produced by the food-web model proved as a useful tool for both model validation, and for studying the food-web function. These results indicate that presenting model uncertainties is necessary to alleviate ecological surprises in marine ecosystem management.
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| 27. |
- Otto, Saskia A., et al.
(författare)
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Life Cycle Dynamics of a Key Marine Species Under Multiple Stressors
- 2020
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Marine Science. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-7745. ; 7
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Identifying key indicator species, their life cycle dynamics and the multiple driving forces they are affected by is an important step in ecosystem-based management. Similarly important is understanding how environmental changes and trophic interactions shape future trajectories of key species with potential implications for ecosystem state and service provision. We here present a statistical modeling framework to assess and quantify cumulative effects on the long-term dynamics of the copepod Pseudocalanus acuspes, a key species in the Baltic Sea. Our model integrates linear and non-linear responses to changes in life stage density, climate and predation pressure as well as stochastic processes. We use the integrated life cycle model to simulate copepod dynamics under a combination of stressor scenarios and to identify conditions under which population responses are potentially mitigated or magnified. Our novel modeling approach reliably captures the historical P. acuspes population dynamics and allows us to identify females in spring and younger copepodites in summer as stages most sensitive to direct and indirect effects of the main environmental stressors, salinity and temperature. Our model simulations furthermore demonstrate that population responses to stressors are dampened through density effects. Multiple stressor interactions were mostly additive except when acting on the same life stage. Here, negative synergistic and positive dampening effects lead to a lower total population size than expected under additive interactions. As a consequence, we found that a favorable increase of oxygen and phosphate conditions together with a reduction in predation pressure by 50% each could counteract the negative effect of a 25% decrease in salinity by only 6%. Ultimately, our simulations suggest that P. acuspes will most certainly decline under a potential freshening of the Baltic Sea and increasing temperatures, which is conditional on the extent of the assumed climate change. Also the planned nutrient reduction strategy and fishery management plan will not necessarily benefit the temporal development of P. acuspes. Moving forward, there is a growing opportunity for using population modeling in cumulative effects assessments. Our modeling framework can help here as simple tool for species with a discrete life cycle to explore stressor interactions and the safe operating space under future climate change.
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| 28. |
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| 29. |
- Pierson, D. C., et al.
(författare)
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An automated method to monitor lake ice phenology
- 2011
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Ingår i: Limnology and Oceanography. - : Wiley. - 1541-5856. ; 9, s. 74-83
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A simple method to automatically measure the date of ice-on, the date of ice-off, and the duration of lake ice cover is described. The presence of ice cover is detected by recording water temperature just below the ice/water interface and just above the lake bottom using moored temperature sensors. The occurrence of ice-on rapidly leads to detectible levels of inverse stratification, defined as existing when the upper sensor records a temperature at least 0.1 degrees C below that of the bottom sensor, whereas the occurrence of ice-off leads to the return of isothermal mixing. Based on data from 10 lakes over a total of 43 winter seasons, we found that the timing and duration of inverse stratification monitored by recording temperature sensors compares well with ice cover statistics based on human observation. The root mean square difference between the observer-based and temperature-based estimates was 7.1 d for ice-on, 6.4 d for ice-off, and 10.0 d for the duration of ice cover. The coefficient of determination between the two types of estimates was 0.93, 0.86, and 0.91, respectively. The availability of inexpensive self-contained temperature loggers should allow expanded monitoring of ice cover in a large and diverse array of lakes. Such monitoring is needed to improve our ability to monitor the progression of global climate change, and to improve our understanding of the relationship between climate and ice cover over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales.
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| 30. |
- Rengefors, Karin, et al.
(författare)
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Species-specific alkaline phosphatase activity in freshwater spring phytoplankton: Application of a novel method
- 2001
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Ingår i: Journal of Plankton Research. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0142-7873 .- 1464-3774. ; 23:4, s. 435-443
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- For the first time, in situ alkaline phosphatase activity (APA) was studied at the species level in a natural spring community of freshwater phytoplankton. This was achieved by utilizing a substrate called enzyme labeled fluorescence (ELF), which forms fluorescent precipitates at the site of APA. Samples collected from Lake Erken, Sweden, were assayed with ELF and a number of species belonging to Bacillariophyceae, Chlorophyceae and Dinophyceae were labeled. Within these species we found temporal changes in the percentage of the populations that were ELF labeled. Our results demonstrate that species are not all utilizing AP at the same time, and that within one species, individual cells express different levels of APA. Comparisons between ELF activity and bulk community APA measurements, using standard methods, showed cases both of agreement and disagreement. In this study, we were unable to determine whether some of the fragile flagellates were producing AP. These cells were destroyed in the ELF-labeling process. Overall, we found that the ELF method provided new information on APA in freshwater phytoplankton, and that species-specific measurements are possible, but not for all classes of phytoplankton.
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| 31. |
- Tomczak, Maciej T., et al.
(författare)
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Ecological Network Indicators of Ecosystem Status and Change in the Baltic Sea
- 2013
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 8:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Several marine ecosystems under anthropogenic pressure have experienced shifts from one ecological state to another. In the central Baltic Sea, the regime shift of the 1980s has been associated with food-web reorganization and redirection of energy flow pathways. These long-term dynamics from 1974 to 2006 have been simulated here using a food-web model forced by climate and fishing. Ecological network analysis was performed to calculate indices of ecosystem change. The model replicated the regime shift. The analyses of indicators suggested that the system's resilience was higher prior to 1988 and lower thereafter. The ecosystem topology also changed from a web-like structure to a linearized food-web.
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| 32. |
- Tomczak, Maciej T., et al.
(författare)
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Reference state, structure, regime shifts, and regulatory drivers in a coastal sea over the last century : The Central Baltic Sea case
- 2022
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Ingår i: Limnology and Oceanography. - : Wiley. - 0024-3590 .- 1939-5590. ; 67:S1, s. S266-S284
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The occurrence of regime shifts in marine ecosystems has important implications for environmental legislation that requires setting reference levels and targets of quantitative restoration outcomes. The Baltic Sea ecosystem has undergone large changes in the 20(th) century related to anthropogenic pressures and climate variability, which have caused ecosystem reorganization. Here, we compiled historical information and identified relationships in our dataset using multivariate statistics and modeling across 31 biotic and abiotic variables from 1925 to 2005 in the Central Baltic Sea. We identified a series of ecosystem regime shifts in the 1930s, 1970s, and at the end of the 1980s/beginning of the 1990s. In the long term, the Central Baltic Sea showed a regime shift from a benthic to pelagic-dominated state. Historically, benthic components played a significant role in trophic transfer, while in the more recent productive system pelagic-benthic coupling was weak and pelagic components dominated. Our analysis shows that for the entire time period, productivity, climate, and hydrography mainly affected the functioning of the food web, whereas fishing became important more recently. Eutrophication had far-reaching direct and indirect impacts from a long-term perspective and changed not only the trophic state of the system but also affected higher trophic levels. Our study also suggests a switch in regulatory drivers from salinity to oxygen. The reference ecosystem identified in our analysis may guide the establishment of an ecosystem state baseline and threshold values for ecosystem state indicators of the Central Baltic Sea.
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| 33. |
- Uusitalo, Laura, et al.
(författare)
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Integrating diverse model results into decision support for good environmental status and blue growth
- 2022
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Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 806
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Sustainable environmental management needs to consider multiple ecological and societal objectives simultaneously while accounting for the many uncertainties arising from natural variability, insufficient knowledge about the system's behaviour leading to diverging model projections, and changing ecosystem. In this paper we demonstrate how a Bayesian network-based decision support model can be used to summarize a large body of research and model projections about potential management alternatives and climate scenarios for the Baltic Sea. We demonstrate how this type of a model can act as an emulator and ensemble, integrating disciplines such as climatology, biogeochemistry, marine and fisheries ecology as well as economics. Further, Bayesian network models include and present the uncertainty related to the predictions, allowing evaluation of the uncertainties, precautionary management, and the explicit consideration of acceptable risk levels. The Baltic Sea example also shows that the two biogeochemical models frequently used in future projections give considerably different predictions. Further, inclusion of parameter uncertainty of the food web model increased uncertainty in the outcomes and reduced the predicted manageability of the system. The model allows simultaneous evaluation of environmental and economic goals, while illustrating the uncertainty of predictions, providing a more holistic view of the management problem.
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| 34. |
- Varjupuro, R., et al.
(författare)
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Challenges for the Holistic management of Eutrophication and Cod Fisheries in the Baltic Sea
- 2011
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The current deliverable (D7.1.) aims to review the challenges of the established policies for providing a holistic ecosystem approach for management of the inter-linked environmental problems in the Baltic Sea Region.Based on the review of the issues that are of major concern, as well as the recent scientific knowledge of the ecological coupling of eutrophication, changes in the food web structure and decline of the cod stocks (e.g. Mällman et al. 2008, Österblom et al. 2010), we decided to focus our analysis on the two inter-linked problems of eutrophication and cod fisheries.In this report, we briefly describe the ecosystem of the Baltic Sea as well as the nature of these two environmental issues. We provide an overview of major environmental policies that are governing these two inter-linked problems. We also discuss the current challenges in the implementation of these established policies in the context of requirements for holistic ecosystem based management of the Baltic Sea.
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| 35. |
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| 36. |
- Österblom, Henrik, et al.
(författare)
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Modeling Social—Ecological Scenarios in Marine Systems
- 2013
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Ingår i: BioScience. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0006-3568 .- 1525-3244. ; 63:9, s. 735-744
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Human activities have substantial impacts on marine ecosystems, including rapid regime shifts with large consequences for human well-being. We highlight the use of model-based scenarios as a scientific tool for adaptive stewardship in the face of such consequences. The natural sciences have a long history of developing scenarios but rarely with an in-depth understanding of factors influencing human actions. Social scientists have traditionally investigated human behavior, but scholars often argue that behavior is too complex to be repre-ented by broad generalizations useful for models and scenarios. We address this scientific divide with a framework for integrated marine social ecological scenarios, combining quantitative process-based models from the biogeochemical and ecological disciplines with qualitative studies on governance and social change. The aim is to develop policy-relevant scenarios based on an in-depth empirical understanding from both the natural and the social sciences, thereby contributing to adaptive stewardship of marine social-ecological systems.
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