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- Bradter, Ute, et al.
(författare)
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Can opportunistically collected Citizen Science data fill a data gap for habitat suitability models of less common species?
- 2018
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Ingår i: Methods in Ecology and Evolution. - 2041-210X. ; 9, s. 1667-1678
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- 1. Opportunistically collected species observations contributed by volunteer reporters are increasingly available for species and regions for which systematically collected data are not available. However, it is unclear if they are suitable to produce reliable habitat suitability models (HSMs), and hence if the species-habitat relationships found and habitat suitability maps produced can be used with confidence to advice conservation management and address basic and applied research questions.2. We evaluated HSMs with opportunistically collected observations against HSMs with systematically collected observations. We enhanced the opportunistically collected presence-only data by adding inferred species absences. To obtain inferred absences, we asked individual reporters about their identification skills and if they reported certain species consistently and combined this information with their observations. We evaluated several HSM methods using a forest bird species, Siberian jay (Perisoreus infaustus), in Sweden: logistic regression with inferred absences, two versions of MaxEnt, a model combining presence-absence with presence-only observations and a Bayesian site-occupancy-detection model.3. All HSM methods produced nationwide habitat suitability maps of Siberian jay that agreed well with systematically collected observations (AUC: 086-0.88) and were very similar to a habitat suitability map produced from the HSM with systematically collected observations (Spearman rho: 0.94-0.98). At finer geographical scales there were differences among methods.4. At finer scale, the resulting habitat suitability maps from logistic regression with inferred absences agreed better with results from systematically collected observations than other methods. The species-habitat relationships found with logistic regression also agreed well with those found from systematically collected data and with prior expectations based on the species ecology.5. Synthesis and application. For many regions and species, systematically collected data are not available. By using inferred absences from high-quality, opportunistically collected contributions of few very active reporters in logistic regression we obtained HSMs that produced results similar to those from a systematic survey. Adding high-quality inferred absences to opportunistically collected data is likely possible for many less common species across various organism groups. Well-performing HSMs are important to facilitate applications such as spatial conservation planning and prioritization, monitoring of invasive species, understanding species habitat requirements or climate change studies.
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| 2. |
- Bradter, Ute, et al.
(författare)
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Decomposing the spatial and temporal effects of climate on bird populations in northern European mountains
- 2022
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 28:21, s. 6209-6227
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The relationships between species abundance or occurrence versus spatial variation in climate are commonly used in species distribution models to forecast future distributions. Under “space-for-time substitution”, the effects of climate variation on species are assumed to be equivalent in both space and time. Two unresolved issues of space-for-time substitution are the time period for species' responses and also the relative contributions of rapid- versus slow reactions in shaping spatial and temporal responses to climate change. To test the assumption of equivalence, we used a new approach of climate decomposition to separate variation in temperature and precipitation in Fennoscandia into spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal components over a 23-year period (1996–2018). We compiled information on land cover, topography, and six components of climate for 1756 fixed route surveys, and we modeled annual counts of 39 bird species breeding in the mountains of Fennoscandia. Local abundance of breeding birds was associated with the spatial components of climate as expected, but the temporal and spatiotemporal climatic variation from the current and previous breeding seasons were also important. The directions of the effects of the three climate components differed within and among species, suggesting that species can respond both rapidly and slowly to climate variation and that the responses represent different ecological processes. Thus, the assumption of equivalent species' response to spatial and temporal variation in climate was seldom met in our study system. Consequently, for the majority of our species, space-for-time substitution may only be applicable once the slow species' responses to a changing climate have occurred, whereas forecasts for the near future need to accommodate the temporal components of climate variation. However, appropriate forecast horizons for space-for-time substitution are rarely considered and may be difficult to reliably identify. Accurately predicting change is challenging because multiple ecological processes affect species distributions at different temporal scales.
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| 3. |
- Bradter, Ute, et al.
(författare)
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Habitat suitability models based on opportunistic citizen science data: Evaluating forecasts from alternative methods versus an individual-based model
- 2021
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Ingår i: Diversity and Distributions. - : Wiley. - 1366-9516 .- 1472-4642. ; 27, s. 2397-2411
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aim To evaluate the utility of opportunistic data from citizen science programmes for forecasting species distributions against forecasts with a model of individual-based population dynamics. Location Sweden. Methods We evaluated whether alternative methods for building habitat suitability models (HSMs) based on opportunistic data from citizen science programmes produced forecasts that were consistent with forecasts from two benchmark models: (1) a HSM based on data from systematic monitoring and (2) an individual-based model for spatially explicit population dynamics based on empirical demographic and movement data. We forecasted population numbers and habitat suitability for three realistic, future forest landscapes for a forest bird, the Siberian jay (Perisoreus infaustus). We ranked simulated forest landscapes with respect to their benefits to Siberian jays for each modelling method and compared the agreement of the rankings among methods. Results Forecasts based on our two benchmark models were consistent with each other and with expectations based on the species' ecology. Forecasts from logistic regression models based on opportunistic data were consistent with the benchmark models if species detections were combined with high-quality inferred absences derived via retrospective interviews with experienced "super-reporters." In contrast, forecasts with three other widely used methods were inconsistent with the benchmark models, sometimes with misleading rankings of future scenarios. Main conclusions Our critical evaluation of alternative HSMs against a spatially explicit IBM demonstrates that information on species absences critically improves forecasts of species distributions using opportunistic data from citizen science programmes. Moreover, high-quality information on species absences can be retrospectively inferred from surveys of the consistency of reporting of individual species and the identification skills of participating reporters. We recommend that citizen science projects incorporate procedures to evaluate reporting behaviour. Inferred absences may be especially useful for improving forecasts for species and regions poorly covered by systematic monitoring schemes.
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| 4. |
- Henckel, Laura, et al.
(författare)
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Assessing the usefulness of citizen science data for habitat suitability modelling: Opportunistic reporting versus sampling based on a systematic protocol
- 2020
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Ingår i: Diversity and Distributions. - : Wiley. - 1366-9516 .- 1472-4642. ; 26, s. 1276-1290
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aim To evaluate the potential of models based on opportunistic reporting (OR) compared to models based on data from a systematic protocol (SP) for modelling species distributions. We compared model performance for eight forest bird species with contrasting spatial distributions, habitat requirements and rarity. Differences in the reporting of species were also assessed. Finally, we tested potential improvement of models when inferring high-quality absences from OR based on questionnaires sent to observers. Location Both datasets cover the same large area (Sweden) and time period (2000-2013). Methods Species distributions were modelled using logistic regression. Predictive performance of OR models to predict SP data was assessed based on AUC. We quantified the congruence in spatial predictions using Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. We related these results to species characteristics and reporting behaviour of observers. We also assessed the gain in predictive performance of OR models by adding inferred absences. Finally, we investigated the potential impact of sampling bias in OR. Results For all species, and despite the sampling biases, results from OR overall agreed well with those of SP, for the nationwide spatial congruence of habitat suitability maps and the selection and directions of species-environment relationships. The OR models also performed well in predicting the SP data. The predictive performance of the OR models increased with species rarity and even outperformed the SP model for the rarest species. No significant impact of observer behaviour was found. Main conclusions Relatively simple analyses with inferred absences could produce reliable spatial predictions of habitat suitability. This was especially true for rare species. OR data should be seen as a complement to SP, as the weakness of one is the strength of the other, and OR may be especially useful at large spatial scales or where no systematic data collection protocols exist.
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Moor, Helen, et al.
(författare)
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Rebuilding green infrastructure in boreal production forest given future global wood demand
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal of Applied Ecology. - : Wiley. - 0021-8901 .- 1365-2664. ; 59, s. 1659-1669
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Global policy for future biodiversity conservation is ultimately implemented at landscape and local scales. In parallel, green infrastructure planning needs to account for socioeconomic dynamics at national and global scales. Progress towards policy goals must, in turn, be evaluated at the landscape scale. Evaluation tools are often environmental quality indicators. How developments of different organism groups will relate to developments of these indicators is unclear. We evaluated three management scenarios for a 100,000 hectare boreal forest landscape in the coming 100 years in terms of their effects on the future habitat suitability/occupancy of four bird species, six wood-decaying fungi and one lichen, most of them red-listed. The scenarios optimize financial returns and account for downscaled projected global demand of wood given a middle-of-the road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2). We contrast a reference scenario meeting the wood demand against an economy scenario with no upper harvest limit, and a green infrastructure scenario optimizing the levels of environmental indicators. Environmental indicators generally reached the highest and lowest levels in the green infrastructure and economy scenarios, respectively. Most indicators increased further in set-asides. The profit was 14% lower in the green infrastructure and 2% higher in the economy than in the reference scenario. In the green infrastructure scenario, the species increased on average by 135%, followed by the reference scenario (+65%), and the economy scenario (+47%). All bird species increased in the green infrastructure scenario, while in the other scenarios, only hazel grouse increased and Siberian tit instead decreased. Most fungi increased in the production forest of the green infrastructure scenario but decreased in the economy scenario. All increased in set-asides. In all scenarios, the lichen Lobaria pulmonaria increased, owing to host tree retention. Synthesis and applications. Effects of global socioeconomic developments can be downscaled and accounted for in planning landscape-scale forest and conservation management. Accounting for indicators of environmental quality identified forest management scenarios for reaching targets on both revenue and conservation. Rebuilding green infrastructure in the production forest was possible at a relatively minor economic cost and to the benefit of species of conservation concern.
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| 7. |
- Singer, Alexander, et al.
(författare)
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Dating past colonization events to project future species distributions
- 2019
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Ingår i: Methods in Ecology and Evolution. - 2041-210X. ; 10, s. 471-480
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Knowledge on the colonization process is important to understand and project future species distributions. The classic method to quantify colonization rates is time-consuming, as it requires recording infrequent colonization events during extensive, repeated surveys. We present the novel "dating-based approach" that requires one complete survey of species occurrence and estimates of subpopulation ages to back-date colonization events. These data allow statistical reconstruction of a virtual, repeated survey to estimate colonization rates in response to environmental covariates or connectivity. With only 30% of survey effort, the dating-based approach provided similar estimates of rate and distance of dispersal of a metapopulation of the epiphytic moss Neckera pennata as the classic approach relying on long-term surveys. Projections of the number of colonization events during the next 100 years differed by only 2.3% (95%-credible interval: [-1.9%; 7.1%]) between methods. The dating-based approach is applicable across spatial scales and promises enhanced species distribution models with urgently needed quantitative dispersal information.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Soultan, Alaaeldin, et al.
(författare)
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The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution
- 2022
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9318 .- 1748-9326. ; 17:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s-2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr-1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr-1. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to 'climate debt'. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds' resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.
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