| 1. |
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| 2. |
- Klionsky, Daniel J., et al.
(författare)
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Guidelines for the use and interpretation of assays for monitoring autophagy
- 2012
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Ingår i: Autophagy. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1554-8635 .- 1554-8627. ; 8:4, s. 445-544
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 2008 we published the first set of guidelines for standardizing research in autophagy. Since then, research on this topic has continued to accelerate, and many new scientists have entered the field. Our knowledge base and relevant new technologies have also been expanding. Accordingly, it is important to update these guidelines for monitoring autophagy in different organisms. Various reviews have described the range of assays that have been used for this purpose. Nevertheless, there continues to be confusion regarding acceptable methods to measure autophagy, especially in multicellular eukaryotes. A key point that needs to be emphasized is that there is a difference between measurements that monitor the numbers or volume of autophagic elements (e.g., autophagosomes or autolysosomes) at any stage of the autophagic process vs. those that measure flux through the autophagy pathway (i.e., the complete process); thus, a block in macroautophagy that results in autophagosome accumulation needs to be differentiated from stimuli that result in increased autophagic activity, defined as increased autophagy induction coupled with increased delivery to, and degradation within, lysosomes (in most higher eukaryotes and some protists such as Dictyostelium) or the vacuole (in plants and fungi). In other words, it is especially important that investigators new to the field understand that the appearance of more autophagosomes does not necessarily equate with more autophagy. In fact, in many cases, autophagosomes accumulate because of a block in trafficking to lysosomes without a concomitant change in autophagosome biogenesis, whereas an increase in autolysosomes may reflect a reduction in degradative activity. Here, we present a set of guidelines for the selection and interpretation of methods for use by investigators who aim to examine macroautophagy and related processes, as well as for reviewers who need to provide realistic and reasonable critiques of papers that are focused on these processes. These guidelines are not meant to be a formulaic set of rules, because the appropriate assays depend in part on the question being asked and the system being used. In addition, we emphasize that no individual assay is guaranteed to be the most appropriate one in every situation, and we strongly recommend the use of multiple assays to monitor autophagy. In these guidelines, we consider these various methods of assessing autophagy and what information can, or cannot, be obtained from them. Finally, by discussing the merits and limits of particular autophagy assays, we hope to encourage technical innovation in the field.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Lawrenson, Kate, et al.
(författare)
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Functional mechanisms underlying pleiotropic risk alleles at the 19p13.1 breast-ovarian cancer susceptibility locus
- 2016
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A locus at 19p13 is associated with breast cancer (BC) and ovarian cancer (OC) risk. Here we analyse 438 SNPs in this region in 46,451 BC and 15,438 OC cases, 15,252 BRCA1 mutation carriers and 73,444 controls and identify 13 candidate causal SNPs associated with serous OC (P=9.2 × 10-20), ER-negative BC (P=1.1 × 10-13), BRCA1-associated BC (P=7.7 × 10-16) and triple negative BC (P-diff=2 × 10-5). Genotype-gene expression associations are identified for candidate target genes ANKLE1 (P=2 × 10-3) and ABHD8 (P<2 × 10-3). Chromosome conformation capture identifies interactions between four candidate SNPs and ABHD8, and luciferase assays indicate six risk alleles increased transactivation of the ADHD8 promoter. Targeted deletion of a region containing risk SNP rs56069439 in a putative enhancer induces ANKLE1 downregulation; and mRNA stability assays indicate functional effects for an ANKLE1 3′-UTR SNP. Altogether, these data suggest that multiple SNPs at 19p13 regulate ABHD8 and perhaps ANKLE1 expression, and indicate common mechanisms underlying breast and ovarian cancer risk.
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| 5. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 6. |
- Weinstein, John N., et al.
(författare)
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The cancer genome atlas pan-cancer analysis project
- 2013
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 45:10, s. 1113-1120
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) Research Network has profiled and analyzed large numbers of human tumors to discover molecular aberrations at the DNA, RNA, protein and epigenetic levels. The resulting rich data provide a major opportunity to develop an integrated picture of commonalities, differences and emergent themes across tumor lineages. The Pan-Cancer initiative compares the first 12 tumor types profiled by TCGA. Analysis of the molecular aberrations and their functional roles across tumor types will teach us how to extend therapies effective in one cancer type to others with a similar genomic profile. © 2013 Nature America, Inc. All rights reserved.
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| 7. |
- Hoshino, Ayuko, et al.
(författare)
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Extracellular Vesicle and Particle Biomarkers Define Multiple Human Cancers
- 2020
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Ingår i: Cell. - : CELL PRESS. - 0092-8674 .- 1097-4172. ; 182:4, s. 1044-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- There is an unmet clinical need for improved tissue and liquid biopsy tools for cancer detection. We investigated the proteomic profile of extracellular vesicles and particles (EVPs) in 426 human samples from tissue explants (TEs), plasma, and other bodily fluids. Among traditional exosome markers, CD9, HSPA8, ALIX, and HSP90AB1 represent pan-EVP markers, while ACTB, MSN, and RAP1B are novel pan-EVP markers. To confirm that EVPs are ideal diagnostic tools, we analyzed proteomes of TE- (n =151) and plasma-derived (n =120) EVPs. Comparison of TE EVPs identified proteins (e.g., VCAN, TNC, and THBS2) that distinguish tumors from normal tissues with 90% sensitivity/94% specificity. Machine-learning classification of plasma-derived EVP cargo, including immunoglobulins, revealed 95% sensitivity/90% specificity in detecting cancer Finally, we defined a panel of tumor-type-specific EVP proteins in TEs and plasma, which can classify tumors of unknown primary origin. Thus, EVP proteins can serve as reliable biomarkers for cancer detection and determining cancer type.
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| 8. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 9. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(författare)
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- 2020
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 10. |
- Ahlberg, Erik, et al.
(författare)
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"Vi klimatforskare stödjer Greta och skolungdomarna"
- 2019
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Ingår i: Dagens nyheter (DN debatt). - 1101-2447.
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Tidskriftsartikel (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- DN DEBATT 15/3. Sedan industrialiseringens början har vi använt omkring fyra femtedelar av den mängd fossilt kol som får förbrännas för att vi ska klara Parisavtalet. Vi har bara en femtedel kvar och det är bråttom att kraftigt reducera utsläppen. Det har Greta Thunberg och de strejkande ungdomarna förstått. Därför stödjer vi deras krav, skriver 270 klimatforskare.
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| 11. |
- Andersson, Anna, et al.
(författare)
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How unnecessarily high abatement costs and unresolved distributional issues undermine nutrient reductions to the Baltic Sea
- 2021
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Ingår i: AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 51, s. 51–68-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper systematically reviews the literature on how to reduce nutrient emissions to the Baltic Sea cost-effectively and considerations for allocating these costs fairly among countries. The literature shows conclusively that the reduction targets of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) could be achieved at considerably lower cost, if countries would cooperate to implement the least costly abatement plan. Focusing on phosphorus abatement could be prudent as the often recommended measures—wastewater treatment and wetlands—abate nitrogen too. An implication of our review is that the potential for restoring the Baltic Sea to good health is undermined by an abatement strategy that is more costly than necessary and likely to be perceived as unfair by several countries. Neither the BSAP nor the cost-effective solution meet the surveyed criteria for fairness, implying a need for side-payments.
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| 12. |
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| 13. |
- Bartkowski, Bartosz, et al.
(författare)
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Payments by modelled results : A novel design for agri-environmental schemes
- 2021
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Ingår i: Land Use Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0264-8377 .- 1873-5754. ; 102
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- From a theoretical point of view, result-based agri-environmental payments are clearly preferable to action-based payments. However, they suffer from two major practical disadvantages: costs of measuring the results and payment uncertainty for the participating farmers. In this paper, we propose an alternative design to overcome these two disadvantages by means of modelling (instead of measuring) the results. We describe the concept of agri-environmental payments by modelled results (PAMR), including a hypothetical example of payments for the protection and enhancement of soil functions. We offer a comprehensive discussion of the relative advantages and disadvantages of PAMR, showing that it not only unites most of the different advantages of result-based and action-based schemes, but also adds two new advantages: the potential to address trade-offs among multiple policy objectives and management for long-term environmental effects. We argue that PAMR would be a valuable addition to the agri-environmental policy toolbox in the EU and beyond, while also reflecting recent advancements in agri-environmental modelling.
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| 14. |
- Berntell, Ellen, et al.
(författare)
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Mid-Pliocene West African Monsoon rainfall as simulated in the PlioMIP2 ensemble
- 2021
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Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 17:4, s. 1777-1794
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; ∼3.2 million years ago) is seen as the most recent time period characterized by a warm climate state, with similar to modern geography and ∼400 ppmv atmospheric CO2 concentration, and is therefore often considered an interesting analogue for near-future climate projections. Paleoenvironmental reconstructions indicate higher surface temperatures, decreasing tropical deserts, and a more humid climate in West Africa characterized by a strengthened West African Monsoon (WAM). Using model results from the second phase of the Pliocene Modelling Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2) ensemble, we analyse changes of the WAM rainfall during the mPWP by comparing them with the control simulations for the pre-industrial period. The ensemble shows a robust increase in the summer rainfall over West Africa and the Sahara region, with an average increase of 2.5 mm/d, contrasted by a rainfall decrease over the equatorial Atlantic. An anomalous warming of the Sahara and deepening of the Saharan Heat Low, seen in >90 % of the models, leads to a strengthening of the WAM and an increased monsoonal flow into the continent. A similar warming of the Sahara is seen in future projections using both phase 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). Though previous studies of future projections indicate a west–east drying–wetting contrast over the Sahel, PlioMIP2 simulations indicate a uniform rainfall increase in that region in warm climates characterized by increasing greenhouse gas forcing. We note that this effect will further depend on the long-term response of the vegetation to the CO2 forcing.
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| 15. |
- Boke Olén, Niklas, et al.
(författare)
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Effects of farm type on food production, landscape openness, grassland biodiversity, and greenhouse gas emissions in mixed agricultural-forestry regions
- 2021
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Ingår i: Agricultural Systems. - : Elsevier BV. - 0308-521X .- 1873-2267. ; 189
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context: The global demand for food is expected to continue increasing for decades, which may drive both agricultural expansion and intensification. The associated environmental impacts are potentially considerable but will depend on how the agricultural sector develops. Currently, there are contrasting regional developments in agriculture; expansion and/or intensification in some regions and abandonment in others, as well as changes in the type of farming. However, the environmental consequences of changes in farm type are not well understood. Objective: We have evaluated the impacts of farm type on food production and three key environmental variables—landscape openness, grassland biodiversity and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions—in three marginal agricultural regions in Sweden. Methods: We do this by first dividing the population of farms in each region into types, based on their land-use and livestock holdings using an innovative clustering method. Thereafter we analysed changes in production activities for farm types over time and evaluated the environmental and food-production impacts, where landscape openness is quantified using a novel indicator. Results and conclusion: Our results show that there is not one single farm type that would simultaneously maximize food production, grassland biodiversity, and landscape openness, whilst minimizing GHG emissions. However, there exists considerable potential to manage the trade-offs between food production and these environmental variables. For example, by reducing land use for dairying and instead increasing both cropping for food production and extensive livestock grazing to maintain landscape openness and biodiversity-rich semi-natural pastures, it would keep food production at similar levels. Significance: Our farm typology allows us to assess the multifunctionality of farming, by relating contrasting production activities to multiple ecosystem services, grassland biodiversity and GHG emissions for informing policy towards more sustainable agriculture. We have demonstrated this with examples under Swedish conditions, but it should to a large extent also be applicable for other countries.
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| 16. |
- Brady, Mark, et al.
(författare)
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An agent-based approach to modeling impacts of agricultural policy on land use, biodiversity and ecosystem services
- 2012
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Ingår i: Landscape Ecology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1572-9761 .- 0921-2973. ; 27:9, s. 1363-1381
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present extensions to the agent-based agricultural policy simulator (AgriPoliS) model that make it possible to simulate the consequences of agricultural policy reform on farmers' land use decisions and concomitant impacts on landscape mosaic, biodiversity and ecosystem services in a real agricultural region. An observed population of farms is modelled as a multi-agent system where individual farm-agent behaviour and their interactions-principally competition for land-are defined through an optimization framework with land use and landscape impacts resulting as emergent properties of the system. The model is calibrated to real data on the farms and the landscape to be studied. We illustrate the utility of the model by evaluating the potential impacts of three alternative frameworks for the European Union Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on landscape values in two marginal agricultural regions. Mosaic value was found to be sensitive to the choice of policy scheme in one of the landscapes, whereas significant trade-offs were shown to occur in terms of species richness by habitat and species composition at the landscape scale in both regions. The relationship between food production and other ecosystem services was found to be multifaceted. Thus illustrating the difficulty of achieving landscape goals in a particular region with simple or general land management rules (such as the current rules attached to CAPs direct payments). Given the scarcity of funding for conservation, the level and conditions for allocating direct payments are, potentially, of great importance for preserving landscape values in marginal agricultural regions (subject to levels of other support).
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| 17. |
- Brady, Mark
(författare)
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An agent-based model for assessing the impacts of decoupled agricultural support on landscape values
- 2009
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In this article we present an empirical agent-based landscape model that is capable of simulating the consequences of changes in the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)—or any other economic parameters—on landscape mosaic and biodiversity in a real agricultural region. The model links changes in policy to structural change in agricultural production and concomitant impacts on the landscape (measured using relevant indicators). The utility of our approach is that it can use anonymous survey data on individual farms combined with generally available landscape metrics to generate an empirical agent-based model of a real agricultural landscape. We use the model to evaluate the consequences of the 2005 decoupling reform on landscape mosaic and biodiversity for a cross-section of case-study regions in EU-27. Our results demonstrated that eliminating the link between support payments and production has ostensibly quite negative consequences for the landscape but only in particular regions and circumstances. In other regions decoupled support was shown to be redundant in terms of generating landscape benefits. Implications for continued CAP reform are discussed
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| 18. |
- Brady, Mark, et al.
(författare)
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Estimating the resilience value of soil biodiversity in agriculture: a stochastic simulation approach
- 2011
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Ingår i: Proceedings EAAE 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland. ; , s. 1-16
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Abstract in UndeterminedCharacteristic of ecosystems is that different organisms can have similar functions and hence provide similar ecosystem services. Consequently functional diversity can maintain the rate of services despite environmental fluctuations. In this paper we present a method for estimating the resilience value of biodiversity. Central to a resilience perspective on biological conservation is consideration of uncertainty about the future. To do this we propose stochastic simulation as a practical approach for valuing resilience due to the ease of incorporating uncertain variables. We demonstrate the approach by developing a stochastic simulation model for valuing soil biodiversity in agriculture. Our results indicate that the long time frames involved in soil processes create a significant incentive to perpetuate unsustainable farming systems and hence there might be a need for policy intervention. However we also show that investing in soil biodiversity conservation can provide significant risk diversification benefits that are not accounted for in a deterministic evaluation. These benefits can be estimated through stochastic simulation.
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| 19. |
- Brady, Mark, et al.
(författare)
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Fixing problems in fisheries-integrating ITQs, CBM and MPAs in management
- 2009
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Ingår i: Marine Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0308-597X .- 1872-9460. ; 33:2, s. 258-263
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We aim to show how some of the important interdisciplinary fixes or solutions to diverse problems observed in fisheries can complement each other. This can be achieved through methodical allocation of the rights pertaining to fisheries and simultaneous implementation of policy instruments to correct for market failures and equity concerns. We emphasize via a roadmap that there are some general principles that should be invoked when choosing between alternative structures of rights. Our examples from Sweden provide evidence of the flexibility of fishing rights and how they can be adapted to integrate fixes from different disciplines into practical fisheries management.
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| 20. |
- Brady, Mark, et al.
(författare)
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Fungerar politiken för ett renare Östersjön?
- 2022
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Ingår i: Policy brief / AgriFood Economics Centre.
-
Annan publikation (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- Trots att jordbrukets näringsutsläpp till Östersjön har minskat krävs mycket mer för att uppnå de uppsatta miljömålen. Vi har utvärderat politiken som används för att minska utsläppen från de nio länder som samarbetar om restaureringen av Östersjön. Vi finner att den nuvarande politiken är otillräcklig eftersom: • Många länder har inte genomfört de utlovade åtgärderna för att minska näringsutsläpp från jordbruket. • Viljan att minska utsläppen undergrävs av en åtgärdsplan som är onödigt kostsam och som upplevs som orättvis. • Vissa länder har svaga lokala institutioner medan andra har ineffektiva miljöstöd.
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| 21. |
- Brady, Mark
(författare)
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Impact of CAP reform on the environment: some regional results
- 2010
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Introduction of the Single Farm Payment (SPS) in 2005 constitutes perhaps the most radical reform of the Common Agricultural Policy ever. This payment has replaced almost all previous forms of subsidies to farmers and is decoupled, i.e. paid regardless of whether the farmer produces commodities as long as their land is kept in Good Agricultural and Environmental Condition (GAEC). Such a radical reform was expected to have a profound impact on European agriculture; in particular concern was raised about the impacts on historical landscapes and biodiversity. This paper presents the findings of a large EU project, IDEMA, on the potential environmental impacts of the 2003 CAP reform for a selection of case-study regions. Due to the complexity of the issues at hand and the lack of historical data, the assessment was based on dynamic agent-based modelling with the extended AgriPoliS model. Our results indicated small impacts in relatively productive regions, since land use remains largely unchanged. In marginal agricultural regions, however, decoupling was shown to have a negative impact on biodiversity and landscape mosaic because of the homogenisation of land use that results from land being taken out of production. Existing agri-environmental schemes and national support acted however to buffer the full potential impacts of decoupling on landscape values in these regions. The effects of the reform would have been more radical if there was no link between the decoupled payment and land, i.e. via the GAEC obligation. In this case the model results indicated that farmers would leave the sector at a faster rate and average farm size would increase (thereby improving competitiveness). On the other hand, significant areas of agricultural land, primarily grassland, were abandoned in the modelled high-cost or marginal regions. Hence, it might be motivated to strengthen agri-environmental schemes under a Bond-type scheme in affected regions to preserve landscape values (depending on public willingness to pay for landscape preservation)
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| 22. |
- Brady, Mark
(författare)
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Impacts of Decoupled Agricultural Support on Farm Structure, Biodiversity and Landscape Mosaic: Some EU Results
- 2009
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Ingår i: Journal of Agricultural Economics. - : Wiley. - 0021-857X .- 1477-9552. ; 60, s. 563-585
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The decoupling of direct payments from production represents a substantial reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Farmers are no longer required to produce commodities to be entitled to support but only to keep land in Good Environmental and Agricultural Condition. If output declines as a result, there is concern that landscape services produced jointly with commodities will also decline. The aim of this paper is to assess the long-term effects of the 2003 reform on farm structure, landscape mosaic and biodiversity for a sample of EU regions. Impacts are quantified using a spatial agent-based modelling approach by simulating agricultural development with links to indicators of landscape value. Our results demonstrate that eliminating the link between support payments and production has possible negative consequences for the landscape, but only under particular circumstances. It is shown that these effects could be offset by strengthening (Pillar II) agri-environmental schemes. Further the single payment scheme results in higher land rental prices which reduces its ability to achieve its goal of providing income security for farmers. Implications of these results for the direction of continued CAP reform are discussed.
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| 23. |
- Brady, Mark, et al.
(författare)
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Impacts of direct payments – lessons for CAP post-2020 from a quantitative analysis
- 2017
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In this report we aim to analyse the economic and environmental impacts of Pillar I direct payments, and to demonstrate alternative instruments that are better suited to achieve CAP objectives. The instruments—a targeted payment to land at risk of abandonment and a tax on mineral fertilisers—were selected on the basis of the Polluter Pays and Provider Gets Principles. We do this using two state‐of‐the‐art agricultural economic simulation models. The first model, CAPRI, is used to quantify the large‐scale or aggregate impacts for individual countries, the EU and the world. The other model, AgriPoliS, is used to quantify the fine‐scale or farm and field level impacts in a selection of contrasting agricultural regions, to consider the potential influence of the large spatial variability in agricultural and environmental conditions across the EU. The results show that direct payments are keeping more farms in the sector and more land in agricultural use than would otherwise be the case, and thus avoiding land abandonment, principally in marginal regions. Particularly the area of grassland is substantially higher, because it is generally less productive than arable land and hence more dependent on direct payments for keeping it in agricultural use. The magnitudes of the impacts of direct payments on land use therefore vary strongly across regions due to spatial variability in productivity: marginal regions with large areas of less productive land are heavily influenced by direct payments, while regions with large areas of relatively productive land are hardly affected, because this land would be farmed in any case. By keeping more farmers in the sector longer, direct payments are slowing structural change, which can hamper agricultural development. However the potential benefits of faster structural change vary considerably among our study regions. In relatively productive regions direct payments are hindering development, because too many farmers are staying in the sector and preventing the consolidation of land in larger farms, which would improve their competitiveness and increase farm profits. On the contrary, the mass departure of farms that is currently avoided, will not lead to the same general benefits in marginal regions. Instead of freed land being absorbed by remaining farms, large areas of relatively unproductive land are abandoned without payments. This land is unprofitable to maintain in agricultural land use, even if integrated into larger farms, because current market prices are too low to motivate farming it. Consequently direct payments pose a serious goal conflict: the avoidance of land abandonment on the one hand, which can have negative impacts on public goods, and restricting agricultural development on the other hand. Once again this goal conflict is rooted in the spatial variability of agricultural conditions in the EU. Maintaining extensively managed farmland, particularly semi‐natural pastures, is central for conservation of biodiversity and preservation of the cultural landscape. Therefore direct payments are contributing to the provisioning of these public goods, but principally in marginal areas. Further, abandonment of land can reduce its agricultural productivity due to erosion or afforestation. Thus, direct payments are contributing to food security by preserving the productive potential of land for the future, but only marginal land since relatively productive land is farmed in any case. Production of agricultural commodities is affected to a lesser degree by direct payments than land use per se. Nevertheless, food exports from the EU are higher and imports lower as a consequence of direct payments. However, the additional supply generated by direct payments also lowers output prices, which reduces the profitability of commodity production; thereby partially offsetting the additional revenues from direct payments. The higher agricultural output brought about by direct payments causes higher levels of environmentally damaging greenhouse‐gas emissions, nutrient surpluses and pesticide use. The higher greenhouse‐gas emissions for the EU are, to some extent, moderated by lower emissions in the rest of the world. Nevertheless, the net effect of direct payments is higher global emissions of greenhouse gases. The environmental impacts of higher nutrient surpluses and pesticide inputs are less conclusive, since these depend also on spatial factors, i.e., where the emissions occur. Although EU‐scale and regional emissions are higher due to direct payments, agricultural production is less intensive generally, on account of the lower output prices. Analysing the net effects of these two opposing forces requires additional biophysical modelling at relevant spatial scales, such as watersheds or landscapes, which is beyond the scope of this study. Pillar I direct payments generate a significant transfer of income to farmers and land owners who are not necessarily farmers; 40 billion euro annually. Of this transfer a substantial proportion goes to farmers in relatively productive regions and, further, to a minority of farmers that need them least. In relatively productive regions payments are not needed for continued agricultural production and preservation of farmland, but instead rather fuel higher land and rental prices, which hampers structural change. On the contrary, the need for support is greatest in marginal regions, because some form of payment to marginal land is needed to avoid its abandonment and the loss of associated public goods. Finally, the direct payments even come at the cost of lower market returns for farmers due to slower structural change (smaller and less competitive farms) and lower output prices (due to greater EU output). On the other hand the lower output prices lead to somewhat lower food prices, but at the greater cost of financing the direct payments. Our main conclusion is that Pillar I direct payments are generating serious goal conflicts due to spatial variability in conditions across the EU. On the one hand these payments are contributing to the provisioning of public goods by preserving marginal agricultural land. On the other hand they are hampering agricultural development, primarily in relatively productive regions. Payments to relatively productive land that would be farmed any way not only inflate land values (capitalisation) but also slow structural change, which are both likely to hinder agricultural development and hence the competitiveness of the EU on the global market. The direct payments also increase environmental pressure; by subsidising land use generally and the associated production, they are incapable of controlling environmentally damaging emissions, which is also in conflict with broad CAP objectives. The goal conflict arises because direct payments are universal, a payment principal that does not consider spatial variability in the EU and the associated trade‐offs in regard to development and environmental effectiveness. Our analysis considered two alternative policy instruments that have the potential to curb the identified goal conflicts associated with direct payments, by applying the Polluter Pays and Provider (of public goods) Gets Principles at appropriate spatial scales. Replacing direct payments with a payment targeted on marginal land (and associated public goods) prevents land abandonment at a lower cost, by avoiding payments to relatively productive land that is farmed in any case. This also allows surviving farms in regions with relatively productive land to compensate for lost direct payments through expansion and associated scale economies, as well as higher output prices. This instrument therefore finances the provisioning of public goods without adverse effects on development and the efficiency of agricultural production. The EU‐wide tax on mineral fertiliser demonstrates that this instrument has the potential to reduce nutrient surpluses. Since direct payments cause higher levels of polluting emissions, policy instruments targeting emissions at relevant spatial scales are needed to achieve cost‐effective abatement. Overall we find that Pillar I direct payments are not addressing the diversity of challenges facing European agriculture. In fact our quantitative analysis indicates that the potential for the current system to meet these challenges is seriously impaired by goal conflicts and spatial variability across the EU. A better policy requires that instruments are targeted on desired outcomes and designed according to sound principles, specifically the Polluter Pays and Provider Gets Principles. These principles would ensure that farmers are provided with appropriate incentives to i) generate public goods that otherwise would be underprovided; ii) mitigate environmentally damaging emissions at the lowest possible cost to society; and iii) continually strive to improve environmental performance. Such instruments are also fairer and promote a more competitive or viable agricultural sector by not obstructing structural change and hence agricultural development.
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| 24. |
- Brady, Mark, et al.
(författare)
-
Jordbrukspolitik för att nå FN:s globala mål?
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Policy brief / AgriFood Economics Centre.
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Enligt EU-kommissionen är den gemensamma jordbrukspolitiken central för att nå FN:s globala mål för hållbar utveckling. Nästan 40 procent av EU:s budget går till jordbruksstöd, men i vilken utsträckning stöden bidrar till att uppnå FN-målen är oklart. Vi analyserar hur de 551 miljarder kronor som betalades ut i stöd år 2015 fördelades mellan FN:s 17 hållbarhetsmål. Vi finner att:* 60 procent av stöden gick till endast två av FN:s hållbarhetsmål: ingen fattigdom (mål ett) och ingenhunger (mål två).* Kopplingen till mål ett och två är svag eftersom 225 miljarder kronor betalades ut som inkomststöd i regioner där jordbrukare i genomsnitt har högre inkomster än halva EU:s befolkning.* Jordbruksstödens fördelning främjar inte jordbruk med låg klimatpåverkan (mål 13) eller jordbruk som gynnar biologisk mångfald (mål 15) i någon större utsträckning.
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| 25. |
- Brady, Mark, et al.
(författare)
-
Jordbruksstöd utan krav på produktion: en bättre politik?
- 2009
-
Ingår i: Ekonomisk debatt. - 0345-2646. ; 37, s. 57-70
-
Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- EUs gemensamma jordbrukspolitik (GJP) förändrades radikalt år 2005 på grund av frikopplingsreformen. Stödet till lantbrukarna är inte längre kopplat till produktionen utan betalas ut även om lantbrukaren väljer att inte producera livsmedel. Den totala stödnivån har däremot inte förändrats nämnvärt. Frågan är om den hårt kritiserade GJP blivit en bättre och effektivare politik. Syftet med artikeln är att belysa denna fråga genom att utvärdera de långsiktiga effekterna av de frikopplade stöden på jordbrukets struktur, inkomster, markpriser, landskapsmosaik och biologisk mångfald för ett urval av jordbruksregioner i EU. Utifrån resultaten diskuterar vi konsekvenserna av frikoppling för fortsatt reformering av GJP
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| 26. |
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| 27. |
- Brady, Mark
(författare)
-
Managing Soil Ecosystem Services in Agriculture: a Production Function Approach
- 2014
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Soil natural capital through its delivery of ecosystem services is pivotal for agricultural production. We develop a production-function approach and use data from long-term agricultural field experiments in Europe and the US to show that changes in soil organic carbon (SOC)-through its relation to ecosystem services-can be used to value changes in soil natural capital. Generally, declining SOC reduces both maximum yield and fertilizer use efficiency in the future, thereby depreciating soil natural capital. The depreciation cost will depend on the current state of SOC and the choice of discount rate. Valuing SOC as natural capital makes way for optimising soil ecosystem services in agricultural production.
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| 28. |
- Brady, Mark, et al.
(författare)
-
Modellerade miljöeffekter - för bättre ersättningar till jordbrukare
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Policy brief / AgriFood Economics Centre.
-
Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Miljöersättningar i landsbygdsprogrammet kritiseras för att inte vara kostnadseffektiva eller attraktiva för många jordbrukare, samt för att inte ta vara på jordbrukarnas kompetens och kreativitet för att lösa miljöproblem. Problemen beror i hög grad på att ersättningen betalas ut oavsett storleken på miljöeffekten, bara den avtalade åtgärden utförs. Utvecklingen av ett effektivare system för miljöersättningar har hämmats av svårigheter med att mäta miljöeffekter på gårdsnivå. Vi visar att:Om en miljöåtgärd ska vara kostnadseffektiv, dvs. uppnå miljöeffekter till lägsta möjliga kostnad, måste den genomföras på rätt plats. En modell (app) är ett praktiskt verktyg för att bedöma miljöeffekter av en åtgärd på olika platser i landskapet. Ersättningar baserade på modellerade miljöeffekter ger betalningssäkerhet och skapar engagemang hos jordbrukare i miljöarbetet, eftersom de får betalt för den förväntade miljöeffekten.
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| 29. |
- Brady, Mark, et al.
(författare)
-
Modellverktyget AgriPoliS
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Jordbrukspolitik, inlåsning och strukturomvandling. ; 2015:Rapport: 2015:14, s. 55-90
-
Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 30. |
- Brady, Mark
(författare)
-
Naturbetesmarkens framtid - en fråga om lönsamhet
- 2020
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Naturbetesmarker och slåtterängar är bland de artrikaste biotoperna i Sverige och en central del av kulturlandskapet. Strukturomvandlingen och intensifieringen som skett i jordbruket under det gångna seklet har lett till att naturbetesmarker (och slåtterängar) successivt minskat i areal och kvalitet. För att bevara naturbetesmarker finns en frivillig miljöersättning i landsbygdsprogrammet som kompenserar jordbrukare för att sköta betesmarker. Ersättningen betalas ut i en högre och en lägre nivå (2 800 respektive 1 000 kr per hektar och år) som ska spegla skillnader i natur- och kulturvärden mellan skiften. Villkoren för den högre ersättningen är generellt mer omfattande och därför mer kostsamma att uppfylla för jordbrukaren. Miljöersättningen har med all sannolikhet bidragit till att bromsa förlusten av naturbetesmarker, men farhågor finns att de inte fungerar tillräckligt bra för att uppfylla de politiska målsättningarna knutna till jordbrukslandskapet, dvs. att bevara biologisk mångfald och det kvarvarande kulturlandskapet. Skötsel av naturbetesmarker kräver bete med lämpliga betesdjur så att den typ av störning som gett upphov till markens natur- och kulturvärden inte avbryts. Under senare decennier har antalet nötkreatur i Sverige minskat och djuren har blivit mer koncentrerade i landskapet. Det har väckt frågan om brist på betesdjur bidrar till att förlusten av naturbetesmark fortgår. Tidigare studier kommer fram till motstridiga slutsatser; både att det finns tillräckligt med djur i Sverige och att det finns för lite djur. I den här studien fördjupar vi analysen av de befintliga djurens betesbehov i förhållande till betestillgången på naturbetesmark. Vi analyserar den rumsliga fördelningen av både djur och naturbetesmark på gårdsnivå, för att identifiera eventuella platser i landet där det lokalt råder brist på betesdjur. Därefter undersöker vi om det finns stora 8 skillnader i naturvärde mellan individuella skiften, och om det finns geografiska mönster i eventuella skillnader. Slutligen diskuterar vi om dagens miljöersättning för bevarande av naturbetesmarker tar tillräcklig hänsyn till skillnader i naturvärden och vilka faktorer som begränsar användningen av naturbetesmark i jordbruksproduktion. Analysen bygger på data ur Jordbruksverkets djurregister, och ängsoch betesmarksinventeringen (Tuva) som kartlägger och kvantifierar betesmarkernas natur- och kulturvärden i termer av förekomst av olika organismer samt byggnader, stenmurar, gärdsgårdar och andra kulturelement. Resultaten från inventeringen visar på fortsatt igenväxning och förlust av naturvärden som kräver skötsel. Även förändringen i andelen naturbetesmark som är berättigad till jordbruksstöd signalerar sjunkande användning av naturbetesmark. Enligt vår analys har andelen naturbetesmark med jordbruksstöd minskat från 87 till 69 procent mellan 2004 och 2017, vilket indikerar att naturbetesmarkerna inte används för bete. Dessa resultat stödjer uppfattningen att de biologiska och kulturmässiga värden som är förknippade med naturbetesmarkerna minskar på många håll i landet. Vår jämförelse av lokalt betesbehov och tillgång på betesdjur visar att det inte saknas betesdjur i Sverige för att beta naturbetesmarkerna. Vi drar därför slutsatsen att det inte är brist på betesdjur som leder till att naturbetesmarker överges eller försämras på grund av otillräckligt bete. Istället beror otillräckligt bete på att betesdjuren som finns i landet inte kommer ut till naturbetesmarkerna. Detta visar att naturbetesdrift inte är tillräckligt lönsamt för jordbrukarna jämfört med andra driftsformer, vilket även begränsar produktionen av naturbeteskött. Vår geografiska analys av naturvärden visar stor variation i naturvärden mellan olika skiften. Med andra ord finns det skiften med mycket höga såväl som mycket låga naturvärden. Variationen i naturvärden mellan skiften är ungefär lika stor över landet. Det finns dock en viss geografiskt koncentration av de mest värdefulla skiftena till sydöstra Sverige, medan mindre värdefulla skiften finns fördelade över hela landet. En bidragande anledning till att naturbetesdrift inte är tillräckligt lönsamt trots miljöersättningen till betesmark, kan vara att ersättningen inte tar tillräcklig hänsyn till skillnader i kostnader för skötsel av naturbetesmarken. Den befintliga ersättningen är endast differentierad mellan två nivåer av naturvärde (allmänna och särskilda värden). Denna utformning leder till att resurserna som avsätts för ökad biologisk mångfald inte används effektivt. Betesmarker med höga värden underfinansieras och marker med låga värden överfinansieras. Denna risk för ineffektivitet ökar när variationen i naturvärde är stor. Eftersom variation i naturvärden mellan olika skiften är mycket stor är dagens system troligtvis för oprecist för att vara kostnadseffektivt. Sammanfattningsvis tyder våra resultat på att lösningen för att bevara naturbetesmarker och därigenom biologisk mångfald inte är att öka antalet betesdjur i Sverige eftersom det inte finns skäl att tro att nytillkomna djur skulle hamna på naturbete. Det är särskilt osannolikt att nya djur skulle beta på de skiften som idag inte betas tillräckligt på grund av för höga kostnader för jordbrukaren. Därför är styrmedel som ökar antalet betesdjur (exempelvis dagens kopplade nötkreaturstöd) inte bara ett ineffektivt sätt att bevara naturbetesmark och biologisk mångfald, utan det kan också leda till negativa effekter på miljön. Framförallt medför fler nötkreatur ökade utsläpp av växthusgaser, vilket skapar en målkonflikt mellan bevarandemålet och klimatmålet. Det är därför nödvändigt att balansera miljömålen och sträva mot en optimal storlek på djurbeståndet, där djurens positiva inverkan på samhällsekonomin är som störst. Ett steg på vägen är välriktade miljöersättningar som tar större hänsyn till variationen i naturvärden på de svenska naturbetesmarkerna.
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| 31. |
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| 32. |
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| 33. |
- Brady, Mark, et al.
(författare)
-
The CAP and Future Challenges
- 2009
-
Ingår i: European Policy Analysis.
-
Annan publikation (populärvet., debatt m.m.)
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| 34. |
- Brady, Mark
(författare)
-
The impact of CAP reform on the environment: some regional results.
- 2011
-
Ingår i: Disaggregated Impacts of CAP Reforms: Proceedings of an OECD Workshop. - 9789264097070 ; , s. 215-234
-
Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This chapter presents the main findings from the IDEMA project on the impact of the single payment scheme on production, prices, trade flows, farm income and structural change at the European Union and regional levels. Three complementary evaluation approaches were used: surveys of farmers' intentions, sector modelling and agent-based models of regional structural change. The findings provide no strong evidence that farmers intend to change their strategic decision to exit agriculture. Instead, structural change is shown to slow down when payments are more decoupled because minimal land management becomes an additional source of income. The reform has increased the market orientation of EU farmers and has reduced trade distortions. The single payment scheme is shown to increase farm incomes, but also land rental prices in most regions. Capitalization of payments into land values over time will, however, erode the ability of the reform to support incomes in the long run as incumbent farmers retire or otherwise leave the sector. The impact of the reform would have been very different if there had been no link between the decoupled payment and land.
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| 35. |
- Brady, Mark, et al.
(författare)
-
The impact of decoupling and modulation in the European Union: a sectoral and farm level assessment
- 2010
-
Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Introduction of the Single Payment Scheme (SPS) in 2005 constitutes perhaps the most radical reform of the Common Agricultural Policy ever. This payment has replaced almost all previous forms of subsidies to farmers and is decoupled, i.e., paid regardless of whether the farmer produces or not, as long as land is kept in good agricultural and environmental condition (GAEC). Such a radical reform was expected to have a profound impact on European agriculture. This paper presents a synthesis of the findings of a large EU project, IDEMA. The aim was to assess the potential impacts of decoupling on production, prices, trade flows, farm income, structural change and the environment at the EU and regional levels. Due to the complexity of the issues at hand and the lack of historical data, three complementary evaluation approaches were used: surveys of farmers’ intentions, sector modelling and agent-based models of regional structural change. Surveys and modelling results provide no strong evidence that farmers intend to change their strategic decision to exit agriculture. Instead structural change is shown to slow down when payments are decoupled because minimal land management becomes an additional source of income. Decoupling as a result is also shown to reduce farmers’ off-farm labour supply. In the New Member States the impact of the accession is the dominating effect: the introduction of CAP payments results in larger numbers of farmers remaining in the sector and increased competition for land. Other aims of the reform included boosting farm incomes and improving competitiveness. The reform has also, undoubtedly, increased market orientation of EU farmers and reduced trade distortions. The SPS is shown to increase farm incomes but also land rental prices in most regions. Capitalization of payments in land values over time will, however, erode the ability of the reform to support incomes in the long run as incumbent farmers retire or otherwise leave the sector. The impacts of the reform would have been very different if there was no link between the decoupled payment and land. Without the GAEC obligation model results indicate a strong increase in average farm size as greater numbers of farmers would leave the sector and make their land available to remaining farms (significant areas of land are though shown to be abandoned in the most marginal regions). Due to the significantly lower land (rental) prices and size economies that emerge from this policy, profits per hectare are generally higher. Thus it can be argued that the objective of improving competitiveness has not been achieved due to slower structural change and the higher land prices that follow from the 2003 reform
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| 36. |
- Brady, Mark V., et al.
(författare)
-
Att se skogens alla värden – en samhällsekonomisk analys
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Policy brief / AgriFood Economics Centre.
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Det pågår en intensiv debatt om hur vi bäst kan använda skogen som resurs. Att ersätta fossila bränslen med förnybara bränslen från den svenska skogen lyfts fram som ett sätt att bidra till klimatmål. Men ett ökat uttag av biomassa kräver att skogen brukas mer intensivt vilket kan vara negativt för en rad andra samhällsmål som skogen bidrar till. Vad skulle ett intensivare skogsbruk totalt sett betyda för samhället? Resultaten visar att:- Skogen bidrar med stora värden till samhället utöver produktionen av biomassa.- När hänsyn även tas till sociala och miljömässiga värden kan ett mer intensivt skogsbruk än idag vara negativt för samhället.- Ett mer varierat skogsbruk, som exempelvis inkluderar hyggesfritt bruk, kan ge större värden både idag och för framtida generationer.
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| 37. |
- Brady, Mark V., et al.
(författare)
-
Impacts of the CAP’s environmental policy instruments on farm structures, agricultural incomes and public goods
- 2016
-
Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- We examined farmers’ costs of providing public goods under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and the expected impacts of the 2015 CAP “greening” reform on regional development and provisioning of public goods. Less than half of CAP spending Before the reform was justifiable in terms of the delivery of specific public goods; and predicted benefits from greening are low. We recommend re-allocating support to targeted and landscape-scale payments, better matching the financing of public goods with the beneficiaries and re-considering greening.
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| 38. |
- Brady, Mark V., et al.
(författare)
-
Is Passive Farming A Problem for Agriculture in the EU?
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Journal of Agricultural Economics. - : Wiley. - 0021-857X .- 1477-9552. ; 68:3, s. 632-650
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We address a new agricultural policy concern following the decoupling of CAP direct payments in 2005: passive farming, whereby landowners maintain their agricultural area to collect payments without producing commodities. It is claimed that passive farming is hindering agricultural development by 'blocking' access to farmland for expanding farmers. We evaluate the links between the EU's Single Payment Scheme (SPS), passive farming, land use and agricultural development. Following identification of the rational landowners' optimal land-use choice, we evaluate the effects of the SPS using a spatial, agent-based model that simulates farmers' competition for land in a case-study region of Sweden. We show that passive farming does not constrain land from being used in production; on the contrary more land is used than would be the case without the SPS. We conclude that passive farming is not a problem for agriculture, but provides public goods that would otherwise be under provided: preservation of marginal farmland and future food security. However SPS payments on highly productive land inflate land values (capitalisation) and slow structural change, which hinder agricultural development. Consequently CAP goals could be better served by targeting payments on marginal land and phasing out payments to highly productive land.
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| 39. |
- Brady, Mark V., et al.
(författare)
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Roadmap for valuing soil ecosystem services to inform multi-level decision-making in agriculture
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Sustainability (Switzerland). - : MDPI AG. - 2071-1050. ; 11:19
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Agricultural soils contribute to human welfare through their generation of manifold ecosystem services such as food security, water quality and climate regulation, but these are degraded by common farming practices. We have developed a roadmap for evaluating the contribution of both private- and public-good ecosystem services generated by agricultural soils to societal welfare. The approach considers the needs of decision-makers at different levels, from farmers to policy-makers. This we achieve through combining production functions-to quantify the impacts of alternative management practices on agricultural productivity and soil ecosystem services-with non-market valuation of changes in public-good ecosystem services and benefit-cost analysis. The results show that the net present value to society of implementing soil-friendly measures are substantial, but negative for farmers in our study region. Although we apply our roadmap to an intensive farming region in Sweden, we believe our results have broad applicability, because farmers do not usually account for the value of public-good ecosystem services. We therefore conclude that market outcomes are not likely to be generating optimal levels of soil ecosystem services from society's perspective. Innovative governance institutions are needed to resolve this market failure to safeguard the welfare of future generations.
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| 40. |
- Brady, Mark V., et al.
(författare)
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Strengthening the policy framework to resolve lax implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan for agriculture
- 2022
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Ingår i: Ambio: a Journal of Human Environment. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 51:1, s. 69-83
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this perspective article, we provide recommendations for strengthening the policy framework for protecting the Baltic Sea from agricultural nutrient pollution. The most striking weakness is the lax implementation of prescribed abatement measures, particularly concerning manure management, in most countries. Institutions of the EU should also be leveraged for achieving Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) goals. In contrast to the Helsinki Convention, the European Union has economic, political and legal mandates to further implementation and compliance. Equally important is the need for strengthening of local institutions, particularly Water Boards and independent agricultural advisory services in the eastern Baltic Sea Region countries. There is also an urgent need for implementation of voluntary land-use measures where EU funding available to farmers is more broadly and effectively used by providing it on the basis of estimated abatement performance, which can be realized through modelling. The enormous potential for funding performance-based schemes, manure management infrastructure and advisory services through the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy are currently underutilized.
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| 41. |
- Brady, Mark V., et al.
(författare)
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Valuing Supporting Soil Ecosystem Services in Agriculture: A Natural Capital Approach
- 2015
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Ingår i: Agronomy Journal. - : Wiley. - 0002-1962 .- 1435-0645. ; 107:5, s. 1809-1821
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Soil biodiversity through its delivery of ecosystem functions and attendant supporting ecosystem services-benefits soil organisms generate for farmers-underpins agricultural production. Yet lack of practical methods to value the long-term effects of current farming practices results, inevitably, in short-sighted management decisions. We present a method for valuing changes in supporting soil ecosystem services and associated soil natural capital-the value of the stock of soil organisms-in agriculture, based on resultant changes in future farm income streams. We assume that a relative change in soil organic C (SOC) concentration is correlated with changes in soil biodiversity and the generation of supporting ecosystem services. To quantify the effects of changes in supporting services on agricultural productivity, we fitted production functions to data from long-term field experiments in Europe and the United States. The different agricultural treatments at each site resulted in significant changes in SOC concentrations with time. Declines in associated services are shown to reduce both maximum yield and fertilizer-use efficiency in the future. The average depreciation of soil natural capital, for a 1% relative reduction in SOC concentration, was 144 (sic) ha(-1) (SD 47 (sic) ha(-1)) when discounting future values to their current value at 3%; the variation was explained by site-specific factors and the current SOC concentration. Moreover, the results show that soil ecosystem services cannot be fully replaced by purchased inputs; they are imperfect substitutes. We anticipate that our results will both encourage and make it possible to include the value of soil natural capital in decisions.
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| 42. |
- Brady, Mark
(författare)
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Vad kostar biologisk mångfald?
- 2009
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Ingår i: Miljöforskning. - 1103-8527. ; , s. 10-12
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Tidskriftsartikel (populärvet., debatt m.m.)
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| 43. |
- Brady, Mark, et al.
(författare)
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Vikten av att synas - nya verktyg för att värdera ekosystemtjänster
- 2019
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Ekosystemtjänster är alla nyttor som ett fungerande ekosystem ger människan. Att bevara jordbruksmarkens ekosystemtjänster kan vara kostsamt för jordbrukare och då krävs det att de nyttor som tjänsterna ger syns och att bevarandet av ekosystemtjänster är lönsamt. Vi har utvecklat verktyg för att kvantifiera och värdera ekosystemtjänster. Vi presenterar dessa verktyg och visar att:- När det blir lättare att se hur ekosystemtjänster kan bidra till ökad nytta kommer ekosystemtjänster att bevaras i större utsträckning.- Både jordbrukare och samhället kan vinna på att bevara jordbruksmarkens ekosystemtjänster.- Samhällets välfärd ökar då jordbrukets negativa miljöpåverkan minskar.
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| 44. |
- Brady, Mark
(författare)
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What land-use pattern emerges with landscape-scale management? An ecosystem-service perspective
- 2014
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- It is argued that landscape-scale management (LSM) of habitat is better than farm-scale management (FSM) when considering the externality of ecosystem services. Given this advantage, how to regulate individual farmers' land-use decisions to achieve the LSM solution is an issue of common concern both for farmers and policymakers. Specifically, it needs to be determined if there exists a dominant land-use pattern that characterizes the LSM solution compared to FSM solution. In addition to the area of habitat, we design a land-use pattern index (LPI) to characterize the configuration of habitat and project itonto the sharing-sparing continuum. We find that the LSM solution is characterized by less intensive farming, and configurations of habitat are closer to land sharing. However, as crop dependency on ecosystem-services declines, the land-use patterns with LSM and FSM converge and the configurations of habitat start to resemble to land sparing. In addition, when habitat quality improves the configurations of habitat on the border farms become important. Finally, the less mobile service-providers are, the more farmers should focus on land-use patterns on their own farms. Our indices of land-use patterns could be integrated into the cross-compliance of CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) to better manage ecosystem-service in the future.
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| 45. |
- Cole, John W, et al.
(författare)
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Genetics of the thrombomodulin-endothelial cell protein C receptor system and the risk of early-onset ischemic stroke.
- 2018
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Ingår i: PloS one. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 13:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Polymorphisms in coagulation genes have been associated with early-onset ischemic stroke. Here we pursue an a priori hypothesis that genetic variation in the endothelial-based receptors of the thrombomodulin-protein C system (THBD and PROCR) may similarly be associated with early-onset ischemic stroke. We explored this hypothesis utilizing a multi-stage design of discovery and replication.Discovery was performed in the Genetics-of-Early-Onset Stroke (GEOS) Study, a biracial population-based case-control study of ischemic stroke among men and women aged 15-49 including 829 cases of first ischemic stroke (42.2% African-American) and 850 age-comparable stroke-free controls (38.1% African-American). Twenty-four single-nucleotide-polymorphisms (SNPs) in THBD and 22 SNPs in PROCR were evaluated. Following LD pruning (r2≥0.8), we advanced uncorrelated SNPs forward for association analyses. Associated SNPs were evaluated for replication in an early-onset ischemic stroke population (onset-age<60 years) consisting of 3676 cases and 21118 non-stroke controls from 6 case-control studies. Lastly, we determined if the replicated SNPs also associated with older-onset ischemic stroke in the METASTROKE data-base.Among GEOS Caucasians, PROCR rs9574, which was in strong LD with 8 other SNPs, and one additional independent SNP rs2069951, were significantly associated with ischemic stroke (rs9574, OR = 1.33, p = 0.003; rs2069951, OR = 1.80, p = 0.006) using an additive-model adjusting for age, gender and population-structure. Adjusting for risk factors did not change the associations; however, associations were strengthened among those without risk factors. PROCR rs9574 also associated with early-onset ischemic stroke in the replication sample (OR = 1.08, p = 0.015), but not older-onset stroke. There were no PROCR associations in African-Americans, nor were there any THBD associations in either ethnicity.PROCR polymorphisms are associated with early-onset ischemic stroke in Caucasians.
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| 46. |
- Cong, Rong Gang, et al.
(författare)
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Managing soil natural capital : a prudent strategy for adapting to future risks
- 2017
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Ingår i: Annals of Operations Research. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0254-5330 .- 1572-9338. ; 255:1-2, s. 439-463
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Farmers are exposed to substantial weather and market related risks. Rational farmers seek to avoid large losses. Future climate change and energy price fluctuations therefore make adaptating to increased risks particularly important for them. Managing soil natural capital—the capacity of the soil to generate ecosystem services of benefit to farmers—has been proven to generate the double dividend: increasing farm profit and reducing associated risk. In this paper we explore whether managing soil natural capital has a third dividend: reducing the downside risk (increasing the positive skewness of profit). This we refer to as the prudence effect which can be viewed as an adaptation strategy for dealing with future uncertainties through more prudent management of soil natural capital. We do this by developing a dynamic stochastic portfolio model to optimize the stock of soil natural capital—as indicated by soil organic carbon (SOC) content—that considers the mean, variance and skewness of profits from arable farming. The SOC state variable can be managed by the farmer only indirectly through the spatial and temporal allocation of land use. We model four cash crops and a grass ley that generates no market return but replenishes SOC. We find that managing soil natural capital can, not only improve farm profit while reducing the risk, but also reduce the downside risk. Prudent adaptation to future risks should therefore consider the impact of current agricultural management practices on the stock of soil natural capital.
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| 47. |
- Cong, Ronggang, et al.
(författare)
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How to Design a Targeted Agricultural Subsidy System: Efficiency or Equity?
- 2012
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Ingår i: PLoS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 7:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper we appraise current agricultural subsidy policy in the EU. Several sources of its inefficiency are identified: it is inefficient for supporting farmers’ incomes or guaranteeing food security, and irrational transfer payments decoupled from actual performance that may be negative for environmental protection, social cohesion, etc. Based on a simplified economic model, we prove that there is ‘‘reverse redistribution’’ in the current tax-subsidy system, which cannot be avoided. To find a possible way to distribute subsidies more efficiently and equitably, several alternative subsidy systems (the pure loan, the harvest tax and the income contingent loan) are presented and examined.
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| 48. |
- Cong, Ronggang, et al.
(författare)
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Managing ecosystem services for agriculture:Will landscape-scale management pay?
- 2014
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Ingår i: Ecological Economics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0921-8009 .- 1873-6106. ; 99, s. 53-62
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Agriculture's reliance on ecosystem services creates economic and ecological interdependencies between crop production and biodiversity. Interactions with mobile organisms are particularly complex because they depend on the spatial configuration of habitat at large scales. As such conserving habitat is likely to benefit multiple farmers whereas conservation costs are born individually, creating potential interdependencies among farmers. We explore under what conditions landscape-scale management of ecosystem services is likely to benefit farmers compared to managing them at the farm-scale. To do this we develop an agent-based model (ABM) to predict the landscape configuration emerging from farm-scale management under different conditions: initial landscape, crop and pollinator characteristics. As a benchmark, the landscape configuration from landscapescale management is derived through a global optimization procedure. Not only do we find that efficiency improves with landscape-scale management, but also that all farmers would benefit from it (given dependence of crop yields on ecosystem services). However, we also find that the individual incentives to avoid maintaining habitat on one's own land are relatively high; therefore creating conditions for a Prisoner's Dilemma-type problem. On the other hand we also demonstrate that an incentive-compatible contract exists that can promote efficient landscape management (by combining side-payments with fines for defection).
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| 49. |
- Cong, Ronggang, et al.
(författare)
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Managing soil natural capital: An effective strategy for mitigating future agricultural risks?
- 2014
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Ingår i: Agricultural Systems. - : Elsevier BV. - 0308-521X .- 1873-2267. ; 129, s. 30-39
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Uncontrollable events such as adverse weather and volatile prices present considerable risks for arable farmers. Soil natural capital, which views the capacity of soil biodiversity to generate ecosystem services as a component of farm capital, could be important for the stability and resilience of arable production systems. We investigate therefore whether managing soil natural capital could be an effective strategy for mitigating future agricultural risks. We do this by constructing a dynamic stochastic portfolio model to optimize the stock of soil organic carbon (SOC)—our indicator of soil natural capital—when considering both the risks and returns from farming. SOC is controlled via the spatial and temporal allocation of cash crops and an illustrative replenishing land use. We find that higher soil natural capital buffers yield variance against adverse weather and reduces reliance on external inputs. Managing soil natural capital has therefore the potential to mitigate two serious agricultural risks: energy price shocks and adverse weather events, both of which are likely to be exacerbated in the future due to, e.g., globalization and climate change.
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| 50. |
- Cong, Ronggang, et al.
(författare)
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Optimizing intermediate ecosystem services in agriculture using rules based on landscape composition and configuration indices
- 2016
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Ingår i: Ecological Economics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0921-8009 .- 1873-6106. ; 128, s. 214-223
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Important intermediate ecosystem services (ES) such as crop pollination and biological control of pests, which underpin the final ES agricultural yields, are mediated by mobile organisms that depend on availability of habitat and its arrangement in the landscape. It has been suggested that landscape-scale management (LSM) of habitat in a multi-farm setting results in higher provisioning of such ES compared to farm-scale management (FSM). However, to achieve the LSM solution, farmers' land-use decisions need to be coordinated. To this end, we develop rules based on novel landscape composition and configuration indices. We model farmers' interdependencies through ES in an agent-based model (ABM) and optimize land use at both the farm and landscape scales for comparison. Our analysis is based on a simple artificial landscape with homogeneous soil quality and uses crop pollination as an illustrative ecosystem service. We consider habitat configuration at the field scale. Our rules demonstrate that the coordinated solution is characterized by a higher degree of habitat availability and a configuration of habitat that is dispersed rather than agglomerated. We tested these rules over a range of assumptions about ecological parameter values and suggest that such rules could be used to improve governance of ES in agricultural landscapes.
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