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- Martin, Maria A., et al.
(författare)
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Ten new insights in climate science 2021 : a horizon scan
- 2021
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Ingår i: Global Sustainability. - : Cambridge University Press (CUP). - 2059-4798. ; 4, s. 1-20
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Non-technical summary: We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding about the remaining options to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, through overcoming political barriers to carbon pricing, taking into account non-CO2 factors, a well-designed implementation of demand-side and nature-based solutions, resilience building of ecosystems and the recognition that climate change mitigation costs can be justified by benefits to the health of humans and nature alone. We consider new insights about what to expect if we fail to include a new dimension of fire extremes and the prospect of cascading climate tipping elements.Technical summary: A synthesis is made of 10 topics within climate research, where there have been significant advances since January 2020. The insights are based on input from an international open call with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) the options to still keep global warming below 1.5 °C; (2) the impact of non-CO2 factors in global warming; (3) a new dimension of fire extremes forced by climate change; (4) the increasing pressure on interconnected climate tipping elements; (5) the dimensions of climate justice; (6) political challenges impeding the effectiveness of carbon pricing; (7) demand-side solutions as vehicles of climate mitigation; (8) the potentials and caveats of nature-based solutions; (9) how building resilience of marine ecosystems is possible; and (10) that the costs of climate change mitigation policies can be more than justified by the benefits to the health of humans and nature.Social media summary: How do we limit global warming to 1.5 °C and why is it crucial? See highlights of latest climate science.
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- Metcalfe, Daniel B., et al.
(författare)
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Impacts of fire on sources of soil CO2 efflux in a dry Amazon rain forest
- 2018
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 24:8, s. 3629-3641
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Fire at the dry southern margin of the Amazon rainforest could have major consequences for regional soil carbon (C) storage and ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, but relatively little information exists about impacts of fire on soil C cycling within this sensitive ecotone. We measured CO2 effluxes from different soil components (ground surface litter, roots, mycorrhizae, soil organic matter) at a large-scale burn experiment designed to simulate a severe but realistic potential future scenario for the region (Fire plot) in Mato Grosso, Brazil, over 1year, and compared these measurements to replicated data from a nearby, unmodified Control plot. After four burns over 5 years, soil CO2 efflux (R-s) was similar to 5.5 t C ha(-1) year(-1) lower on the Fire plot compared to the Control. Most of the Fire plot R-s reduction was specifically due to lower ground surface litter and root respiration. Mycorrhizal respiration on both plots was around similar to 20% of R-s. Soil surface temperature appeared to be more important than moisture as a driver of seasonal patterns in R-s at the site. Regular fire events decreased the seasonality of R-s at the study site, due to apparent differences in environmental sensitivities among biotic and abiotic soil components. These findings may contribute toward improved predictions of the amount and temporal pattern of C emissions across the large areas of tropical forest facing increasing fire disturbances associated with climate change and human activities.
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- Rifai, Sami W., et al.
(författare)
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ENSO Drives interannual variation of forest woody growth across the tropics
- 2018
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Ingår i: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. - : The Royal Society. - 1471-2970 .- 0962-8436. ; 373:1760
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Meteorological extreme events such as El Niño events are expected to affect tropical forest net primary production (NPP) and woody growth, but there has been no large-scale empirical validation of this expectation. We collected a large high-temporal resolution dataset (for 1-13 years depending upon location) of more than 172 000 stem growth measurements using dendrometer bands from across 14 regions spanning Amazonia, Africa and Borneo in order to test how much month-to-month variation in stand-level woody growth of adult tree stems (NPPstem) can be explained by seasonal variation and interannual meteorological anomalies. A key finding is that woody growth responds differently to meteorological variation between tropical forests with a dry season (where monthly rainfall is less than 100 mm), and aseasonal wet forests lacking a consistent dry season. In seasonal tropical forests, a high degree of variation in woody growth can be predicted from seasonal variation in temperature, vapour pressure deficit, in addition to anomalies of soil water deficit and shortwave radiation. The variation of aseasonal wet forest woody growth is best predicted by the anomalies of vapour pressure deficit, water deficit and shortwave radiation. In total, we predict the total live woody production of the global tropical forest biome to be 2.16 Pg C yr-1, with an interannual range 1.96-2.26 Pg C yr-1 between 1996-2016, and with the sharpest declines during the strong El Niño events of 1997/8 and 2015/6. There is high geographical variation in hotspots of El Niño-associated impacts, with weak impacts in Africa, and strongly negative impacts in parts of Southeast Asia and extensive regions across central and eastern Amazonia. Overall, there is high correlation (r = -0.75) between the annual anomaly of tropical forest woody growth and the annual mean of the El Niño 3.4 index, driven mainly by strong correlations with anomalies of soil water deficit, vapour pressure deficit and shortwave radiation.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.
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