| 1. |
- Badeck, FW, et al.
(author)
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Tree species composition in European pristine forests
- 2001
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In: Climatic Change. - 0165-0009. ; 51:3-4, s. 307-347
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The degree of general applicability across Europe currently achieved with several forest succession models is assessed, data needs and steps for further model development are identified and the role physiology based models can play in this process is evaluated. To this end, six forest succession models (DISCFORM, ForClim, FORSKA-M, GUESS, PICUS v1.2, SIERRA) are applied to simulate stand structure and species composition at 5 European pristine forest sites in different climatic regions. The models are initialized with site-specific soil information and driven with climate data from nearby weather stations. Predicted species composition and stand structure are compared to inventory data. Similarity and dissimilarity in the model results under current climatic conditions as well as the predicted responses to six climate change scenarios are discussed. All models produce good results in the prediction of the right tree functional types. In about half the cases, the dominating species are predicted correctly under the current climate. Where deviations occur, they often represent a shift of the species spectrum towards more drought tolerant species. Results for climate change scenarios indicate temperature driven changes in the alpine elevational vegetation belts at humid sites and a high sensitivity of forest composition and biomass of boreal and temperate deciduous forests to changes in precipitation as mediated by summer drought. Restricted generality of the models is found insofar as models originally developed for alpine conditions clearly perform better at alpine sites than at boreal sites, and vice versa. We conclude that both the models and the input data need to be improved before the models can be used for a robust evaluation of forest dynamics under climate change scenarios across Europe. Recommendations for model improvements, further model testing and the use of physiology based succession models are made.
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| 2. |
- Portner, H., et al.
(author)
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Temperature response functions introduce high uncertainty in modelled carbon stocks in cold temperature regimes
- 2010
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In: Biogeosciences. - : Nicolaus Copernicus University Press. - 1726-4170 .- 1726-4189. ; 7:11, s. 3669-3684
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Models of carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems contain formulations for the dependence of respiration on temperature, but the sensitivity of predicted carbon pools and fluxes to these formulations and their parameterization is not well understood. Thus, we performed an uncertainty analysis of soil organic matter decomposition with respect to its temperature dependency using the ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS. We used five temperature response functions (Exponential, Arrhenius, Lloyd-Taylor, Gaussian, Van’t Hoff). We determined the parameter confidence ranges of the formulations by nonlinear regression analysis based on eight experimental datasets from Northern Hemisphere ecosystems. We sampled over the confidence ranges of the parameters and ran simulations for each pair of temperature response function and calibration site. We analyzed both the long-term and the short-term heterotrophic soil carbon dynamics over a virtual elevation gradient in southern Switzerland. The temperature relationship of Lloyd-Taylor fitted the overall data set best as the other functions either resulted in poor fits (Exponential, Arrhenius) or were not applicable for all datasets (Gaussian, Van’t Hoff). There were two main sources of uncertainty for model simulations: (1) the lack of confidence in the parameter estimates of the temperature response, which increased with increasing temperature, and (2) the size of the simulated soil carbon pools, which increased with elevation, as slower turn-over times lead to higher carbon stocks and higher associated uncertainties. Our results therefore indicate that such projections are more uncertain for higher elevations and hence also higher latitudes, which are of key importance for the global terrestrial carbon budget.
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| 3. |
- Didion, M., et al.
(author)
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Ungulate herbivory modifies the effects of climate change on mountain forests
- 2011
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In: Climatic Change. - : Springer. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 109:3-4, s. 647-669
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Recent temperature observations suggest a general warming trend that may be causing the range of tree species to shift to higher latitudes and altitudes. Since biotic interactions such as herbivory can change tree species composition, it is important to understand their contribution to vegetation changes triggered by climate change. To investigate the response of forests to climate change and herbivory by wild ungulates, we used the forest gap model ForClim v2. 9. 6 and simulated forest development in three climatically different valleys in the Swiss Alps. We used altitudinal transects on contrasting slopes covering a wide range of forest types from the cold (upper) to the dry (lower) treeline. This allowed us to investigate (1) altitudinal range shifts in response to climate change, (2) the consequences for tree species composition, and (3) the combined effect of climate change and ungulate herbivory. We found that ungulate herbivory changed species composition and that both basal area and stem numbers decreased with increasing herbivory intensity. Tree species responded differently to the change in climate, and their ranges did not change concurrently, thus causing a succession to new stand types. While climate change partially compensated for the reductions in basal area caused by ungulate herbivory, the combined effect of these two agents on the mix of the dominant species and forest type was non-compensatory, as browsing selectively excluded species from establishing or reaching dominance and altered competition patterns, particularly for light. We conclude that there is an urgent need for adaptive forest management strategies that address the joint effects of climate change and ungulate herbivory.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Heiri, C., et al.
(author)
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Forty years of natural dynamics in Swiss beech forests : Structure, composition, and the influence of former management
- 2009
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In: Ecological Applications. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1051-0761 .- 1939-5582. ; 19:7, s. 1920-1934
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We investigated forest development after the cessation of management based on inventory data from six beech forest reserves in Switzerland covering nearly 40 years, using observed changes to assess the textbook understanding of natural beech forest dynamics. Specifically, we evaluated the importance of light as a driver of tree species composition, and we aimed to disentangle the role of site characteristics and past management regimes for shaping today’s forest properties. Forest dynamics in the reserves showed a clear trend toward a broadening of the diameter distribution, an increase in basal area and standing dead wood, an increase in beech dominance, and a reduction of tree species diversity over time, conforming to expectations. However, the expected development of specific structural features, such as significant amounts of large living trees and snags or a small-scale mosaic of various developmental phases, appears to take longer than the time elapsed since the cessation of management. The observed loss in species richness can be attributed to decreasing light availability, as almost all species that disappeared were shade intolerant. Additionally, the shade-intolerant tree species had a characteristic bell-shaped diameter distribution in all reserves, indicating a lack of recruits, whereas shade-tolerant species had an irregular to monotonically decreasing diameter distribution, demonstrating sustained regeneration. Along the environmental gradient covered by the six reserves, abiotic factors are sufficient to explain tree species distribution, with management history not contributing additional information. This suggests that at larger scales, tree species composition is determined by abiotic factors, but historical management strategies were obviously adapted well to the species’ autecological requirements. Analyses such as ours provide the foundation for refining forest management systems as well as for developing effective and target-oriented conservation strategies. © 2009 by the Ecological Society of America beech forests;.
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| 9. |
- Morales, Pablo, et al.
(author)
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Comparing and evaluating process-based ecosystem model predictions of carbon and water fluxes in major European forest biomes
- 2005
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In: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 11:12, s. 2211-2233
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Process-based models can be classified into: (a) terrestrial biogeochemical models (TBMs), which simulate fluxes of carbon, water and nitrogen coupled within terrestrial ecosystems, and (b) dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), which further couple these processes interactively with changes in slow ecosystem processes depending on resource competition, establishment, growth and mortality of different vegetation types. In this study, four models - RHESSys, GOTILWA+, LPJ-GUESS and ORCHIDEE - representing both modelling approaches were compared and evaluated against benchmarks provided by eddy-covariance measurements of carbon and water fluxes at 15 forest sites within the EUROFLUX project. Overall, model-measurement agreement varied greatly among sites. Both modelling approaches have somewhat different strengths, but there was no model among those tested that universally performed well on the two variables evaluated. Small biases and errors suggest that ORCHIDEE and GOTILWA+ performed better in simulating carbon fluxes while LPJ-GUESS and RHESSys did a better job in simulating water fluxes. In general, the models can be considered as useful tools for studies of climate change impacts on carbon and water cycling in forests. However, the various sources of variation among models simulations and between models simulations and observed data described in this study place some constraints on the results and to some extent reduce their reliability. For example, at most sites in the Mediterranean region all models generally performed poorly most likely because of problems in the representation of water stress effects on both carbon uptake by photosynthesis and carbon release by heterotrophic respiration (R-h). The use of flux data as a means of assessing key processes in models of this type is an important approach to improving model performance. Our results show that the models have value but that further model development is necessary with regard to the representation of the some of the key ecosystem processes.
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| 10. |
- Schroter, D, et al.
(author)
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Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe
- 2005
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In: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 1095-9203 .- 0036-8075. ; 310:5752, s. 1333-1337
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, "surplus land" for agricultural extensification and bioenergy production). However, many changes increase vulnerability as a result of a decreasing supply of ecosystem services (for example, declining soil fertility, declining water availability, increasing risk of forest fires), especially in the Mediterranean and mountain regions.
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| 11. |
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