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1.
  • Anchukaitis, Kevin, et al. (författare)
  • Last millennium Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part II, spatially resolved reconstructions
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 163, s. 1-22
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Climate field reconstructions from networks of tree-ring proxy data can be used to characterize regionalscale climate changes, reveal spatial anomaly patterns associated with atmospheric circulation changes, radiative forcing, and large-scale modes of ocean-atmosphere variability, and provide spatiotemporal targets for climate model comparison and evaluation. Here we use a multiproxy network of tree-ring chronologies to reconstruct spatially resolved warm season (MayeAugust) mean temperatures across the extratropical Northern Hemisphere (40-90N) using Point-by-Point Regression (PPR). The resulting annual maps of temperature anomalies (750e1988 CE) reveal a consistent imprint of volcanism, with 96% of reconstructed grid points experiencing colder conditions following eruptions. Solar influences are detected at the bicentennial (de Vries) frequency, although at other time scales the influence of insolation variability is weak. Approximately 90% of reconstructed grid points show warmer temperatures during the Medieval Climate Anomaly when compared to the Little Ice Age, although the magnitude varies spatially across the hemisphere. Estimates of field reconstruction skill through time and over space can guide future temporal extension and spatial expansion of the proxy network.
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3.
  • Büntgen, Ulf, et al. (författare)
  • Black truffle winter production depends on Mediterranean summer precipitation
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 14:7
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The unprecedented price inflation of Black truffles, recently exceeding 5000 Euro kg(-1) (in Zurich), is a combined result of increasing global demands and decreasing Mediterranean harvests. Since the effects of long-term irrigation and climate variation on symbiotic fungus-host interaction and the development of belowground microbes are poorly understood, the establishment and maintenance of truffle plantations remains a risky venture. Using 49 years of continuous harvest and climate data from Spain, France and Italy, we demonstrate how truffle production rates, between November and March, significantly rely on previous June-August precipitation totals, whereas too much autumnal rainfall affects the subsequent winter harvest negatively. Despite a complex climate-host-fungus relationship, our findings show that southern European truffle yields can be predicted at highest probability (r = 0.78, t-stat = 5.645, prob = 0.000 01). Moreover, we demonstrate the reliability of national truffle inventories since 1970, and question the timing and dose of many of the currently operating irrigation systems. Finally, our results suggest that Black truffle mycorrhizal colonization of host fine roots, the sexualisation of mycelium, and the formation of peridium are strongly controlled by natural summer rainfall. Recognising the drought-vulnerability of southern Europe's rapidly growing truffle sector, we encourage a stronger liaison between farmers, politicians and scientists to maintain ecological and economic sustainability under predicted climate change in the Mediterranean basin.
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5.
  • Büntgen, Ulf, et al. (författare)
  • Cooling and societal change during the Late Antique Little Ice Age from 536 to around 660 AD
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 9:3, s. 231-236
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Climatic changes during the first half of the Common Era have been suggested to play a role in societal reorganizations in Europe and Asia. In particular, the sixth century coincides with rising and falling civilizations, pandemics, human migration and political turmoil. Our understanding of the magnitude and spatial extent as well as the possible causes and concurrences of climate change during this period is, however, still limited. Here we use tree-ring chronologies from the Russian Altai and European Alps to reconstruct summer temperatures over the past two millennia. We find an unprecedented, long-lasting and spatially synchronized cooling following a cluster of large volcanic eruptions in 536, 540 and 547 AD, which was probably sustained by ocean and sea-ice feedbacks, as well as a solar minimum. We thus identify the interval from 536 to about 660 AD as the Late Antique Little Ice Age. Spanning most of the Northern Hemisphere, we suggest that this cold phase be considered as an additional environmental factor contributing to the establishment of the Justinian plague, transformation of the eastern Roman Empire and collapse of the Sasanian Empire, movements out of the Asian steppe and Arabian Peninsula, spread of Slavic-speaking peoples and political upheavals in China.
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6.
  • Büntgen, Ulf, et al. (författare)
  • Global tree-ring response and inferred climate variation following the mid-thirteenth century Samalas eruption
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 59:1-2, s. 531-546
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The largest explosive volcanic eruption of the Common Era in terms of estimated sulphur yield to the stratosphere was identified in glaciochemical records 40 years ago, and dates to the mid-thirteenth century. Despite eventual attribution to the Samalas (Rinjani) volcano in Indonesia, the eruption date remains uncertain, and the climate response only partially understood. Seeking a more global perspective on summer surface temperature and hydroclimate change following the eruption, we present an analysis of 249 tree-ring chronologies spanning the thirteenth century and representing all continents except Antarctica. Of the 170 predominantly temperature sensitive high-frequency chronologies, the earliest hints of boreal summer cooling are the growth depressions found at sites in the western US and Canada in 1257 CE. If this response is a result of Samalas, it would be consistent with an eruption window of circa May-July 1257 CE. More widespread summer cooling across the mid-latitudes of North America and Eurasia is pronounced in 1258, while records from Scandinavia and Siberia reveal peak cooling in 1259. In contrast to the marked post-Samalas temperature response at high-elevation sites in the Northern Hemisphere, no strong hydroclimatic anomalies emerge from the 79 precipitation-sensitive chronologies. Although our findings remain spatially biased towards the western US and central Europe, and growth-climate response patterns are not always dominated by a single meteorological factor, this study offers a global proxy framework for the evaluation of paleoclimate model simulations.
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7.
  • Büntgen, Ulf, et al. (författare)
  • Global wood anatomical perspective on the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA) in the mid-6th century CE
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Science Bulletin. - : Elsevier BV. - 2095-9273. ; 67:22, s. 2336-2344
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Linked to major volcanic eruptions around 536 and 540 CE, the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age has been described as the coldest period of the past two millennia. The exact timing and spatial extent of this exceptional cold phase are, however, still under debate because of the limited resolution and geographical distribution of the available proxy archives. Here, we use 106 wood anatomical thin sections from 23 forest sites and 20 tree species in both hemispheres to search for cell-level fingerprints of ephemeral summer cooling between 530 and 550 CE. After cross-dating and double-staining, we identified 89 Blue Rings (lack of cell wall lignification), nine Frost Rings (cell deformation and collapse), and 93 Light Rings (reduced cell wall thickening) in the Northern Hemisphere. Our network reveals evidence for the strongest temperature depression between mid-July and early-August 536 CE across North America and Eurasia, whereas more localised cold spells occurred in the summers of 532, 540–43, and 548 CE. The lack of anatomical signatures in the austral trees suggests limited incursion of stratospheric volcanic aerosol into the Southern Hemisphere extra-tropics, that any forcing was mitigated by atmosphere-ocean dynamical responses and/or concentrated outside the growing season, or a combination of factors. Our findings demonstrate the advantage of wood anatomical investigations over traditional dendrochronological measurements, provide a benchmark for Earth system models, support cross-disciplinary studies into the entanglements of climate and history, and question the relevance of global climate averages.
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8.
  • Büntgen, Ulf, et al. (författare)
  • Horn growth variation and hunting selection of the Alpine ibex
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Journal of Animal Ecology. - : Wiley. - 0021-8790 .- 1365-2656. ; 87:4, s. 1069-1079
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • 1. Selective hunting can affect demographic characteristics and phenotypic traits of the targeted species. Hunting systems often involve harvesting quotas based on sex, age and/or size categories to avoid selective pressure. However, it is difficult to assess whether such regulations deter hunters from targeting larger trophy animals with longer horns that may have evolutionary consequences.2. Here, we compile 44,088 annually resolved and absolutely dated measurements of Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) horn growth increments from 8,355 males, harvested between 1978 and 2013, in the eastern Swiss Canton of Grisons. We aim to determine whether male ibex with longer horns were preferentially targeted, causing animals with early rapid horn growth to have shorter lives, and whether such hunting selection translated into long-term trends in horn size over the past four decades.3. Results show that medium-to longer-horned adult males had a higher probability of being harvested than shorter-horned individuals of the same age and that regulations do affect the hunters' behaviour. Nevertheless, phenotypic traits such as horn length, as well as body size and weight, remained stable over the study period.4. Although selective trophy hunting still occurs, it did not cause a measurable evolutionary response in Grisons' Alpine ibex populations; managed and surveyed since 1978. Nevertheless, further research is needed to understand whether phenotypic trait development is coinfluenced by other, potentially compensatory factors that may possibly mask the effects of selective, long-term hunting pressure.
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9.
  • Büntgen, Ulf, et al. (författare)
  • Limited capacity of tree growth to mitigate the global greenhouse effect under predicted warming
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 10
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • It is generally accepted that animal heartbeat and lifespan are often inversely correlated, however, the relationship between productivity and longevity has not yet been described for trees growing under industrial and pre-industrial climates. Using 1768 annually resolved and absolutely dated ring width measurement series from living and dead conifers that grew in undisturbed, high-elevation sites in the Spanish Pyrenees and the Russian Altai over the past 2000 years, we test the hypothesis of grow fast-die young. We find maximum tree ages are significantly correlated with slow juvenile growth rates. We conclude, the interdependence between higher stem productivity, faster tree turnover, and shorter carbon residence time, reduces the capacity of forest ecosystems to store carbon under a climate warming-induced stimulation of tree growth at policy-relevant timescales.
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10.
  • Büntgen, Ulf, et al. (författare)
  • Multi-proxy dating of Iceland's major pre-settlement Katla eruption to 822-823 CE
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Geology. - 0091-7613 .- 1943-2682. ; 45:9, s. 783-786
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Investigations of the impacts of past volcanic eruptions on climate, environment, and society require accurate chronologies. However, eruptions that are not recorded in historical documents can seldom be dated exactly. Here we use annually resolved radiocarbon (C-14) measurements to isolate the 775 CE cosmogenic C-14 peak in a subfossil birch tree that was buried by a glacial outburst flood in southern Iceland. We employ this absolute time marker to date a subglacial eruption of Katla volcano at late 822 CE to early 823 CE. We argue for correlation between the 822-823 CE eruption and a conspicuous sulfur anomaly evident in Greenland ice cores, which follows in the wake of an even larger volcanic signal (ca. 818-820 CE) as yet not attributed to a known eruption. An abrupt summer cooling in 824 CE, evident in tree-ring reconstructions for Fennoscandia and the Northern Hemisphere, suggests a climatic response to the Katla eruption. Written historical sources from Europe and China corroborate our proposed tree ring-radiocarbon-ice core linkage but also point to combined effects of eruptions occurring during this period. Our study describes the oldest precisely dated, high-latitude eruption and reveals the impact of an extended phase of volcanic forcing in the early 9th century. It also provides insight into the existence of prehistoric woodland cover and the nature of volcanism several decades before Iceland's permanent settlement began.
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11.
  • Büntgen, Ulf, et al. (författare)
  • New Tree-Ring Evidence from the Pyrenees Reveals Western Mediterranean Climate Variability since Medieval Times
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Journal of Climate. - 0894-8755 .- 1520-0442. ; 30:14, s. 5295-5318
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Paleoclimatic evidence is necessary to place the current warming and drying of the western Mediterranean basin in a long-term perspective of natural climate variability. Annually resolved and absolutely dated temperature proxies south of the European Alps that extend back into medieval times are, however, mainly limited to measurements of maximum latewood density (MXD) from high-elevation conifers. Here, the authors present the world's best replicated MXD site chronology of 414 living and relict Pinus uncinata trees found >2200 m above mean sea level (MSL) in the Spanish central Pyrenees. This composite record correlates significantly (p <= 0.01) with May-June and August-September mean temperatures over most of the Iberian Peninsula and northern Africa (r = 0.72; 1950-2014). Spanning the period 1186-2014 of the Common Era (CE), the new reconstruction reveals overall warmer conditions around 1200 and 1400, and again after around 1850. The coldest reconstructed summer in 1258 (-4.4 degrees C compared to 1961-90) followed the largest known volcanic eruption of the CE. The twentieth century is characterized by pronounced summer cooling in the 1970s, subsequently rising temperatures until 2003, and a slowdown of warming afterward. Little agreement is found with climate model simulations that consistently overestimate recent summer warming and underestimate preindustrial temperature changes. Interannual-multidecadal covariability with regional hydroclimate includes summer pluvials after large volcanic eruptions. This study demonstrates the relevance of updating MXD-based temperature reconstructions, not only back in time but also toward the present, and emphasizes the importance of comparing temperature and hydroclimatic proxies, as well as model simulations for understanding regional climate dynamics.
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12.
  • Büntgen, Ulf, et al. (författare)
  • No radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl disaster in Hungarian white truffles (Tuber magnatum)
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Environmental Pollution. - : Elsevier BV. - 0269-7491 .- 1873-6424. ; 252, s. 1643-1647
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Despite being one of the most expensive gourmet foods, it remains unclear if the iconic White Truffle (Tuber magnatum Pico; hereinafter WT) accumulates radioactivity at harmful levels comparable to other fungal species. Here, we measure the active radiocaesium-137 concentration (Cs-137) in ten hypogeous WT fruitbodies from southern Hungary, and the soils in which they were growing. All WTs reveal nonsignificant Cs-137 values, thus providing an 'all clear' for WT hunters in the species' northernmost habitats, where corresponding soil samples occasionally exhibit slight Cs-137 concentrations. Our results are particularly relevant in the light of a rapidly increasing global demand for WTs and their subsequent trading extent and price inflation, because up to 600 kg of fresh fruitbodies are harvested each year in southern Hungary. Moreover, some of Europe's forest ecosystems, in which mushroom picking is common practise, are still contaminated with Cs-137 from the Chernobyl fallout more than 30 years ago, posing a serious threat to human health.
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13.
  • Büntgen, Ulf, et al. (författare)
  • Plants in the UK flower a month earlier under recent warming
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences. - : The Royal Society. - 0962-8452 .- 1471-2954. ; 289:1968
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Global temperatures are rising at an unprecedented rate, but environmental responses are often difficult to recognize and quantify. Long-term observations of plant phenology, the annually recurring sequence of plant developmental stages, can provide sensitive measures of climate change and important information for ecosystem services. Here, we present 419 354 recordings of the first flowering date from 406 plant species in the UK between 1753 and 2019 CE. Community-wide first flowering advanced by almost one month on average when comparing all observations before and after 1986 (p < 0.0001). The mean first flowering time is 6 days earlier in southern than northern sites, 5 days earlier under urban than rural settings, and 1 day earlier at lower than higher elevations. Compared to trees and shrubs, the largest lifeform-specific phenological shift of 32 days is found in herbs, which are generally characterized by fast turnover rates and potentially high levels of genetic adaptation. Correlated with January-April maximum temperatures at -0.81 from 1952-2019 (p < 0.0001), the observed trends (5.4 days per decade) and extremes (66 days between the earliest and latest annual mean) in the UK's first flowering dataset can affect the functioning and productivity of ecosystems and agriculture.
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14.
  • Büntgen, Ulf, et al. (författare)
  • Prominent role of volcanism in Common Era climate variability and human history
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Dendrochronologia. - : Elsevier BV. - 1125-7865 .- 1612-0051. ; 64
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • © 2020 Elsevier GmbH Climate reconstructions for the Common Era are compromised by the paucity of annually-resolved and absolutely-dated proxy records prior to medieval times. Where reconstructions are based on combinations of different climate archive types (of varying spatiotemporal resolution, dating uncertainty, record length and predictive skill), it is challenging to estimate past amplitude ranges, disentangle the relative roles of natural and anthropogenic forcing, or probe deeper interrelationships between climate variability and human history. Here, we compile and analyse updated versions of all the existing summer temperature sensitive tree-ring width chronologies from the Northern Hemisphere that span the entire Common Era. We apply a novel ensemble approach to reconstruct extra-tropical summer temperatures from 1 to 2010 CE, and calculate uncertainties at continental to hemispheric scales. Peak warming in the 280s, 990s and 1020s, when volcanic forcing was low, was comparable to modern conditions until 2010 CE. The lowest June–August temperature anomaly in 536 not only marks the beginning of the coldest decade, but also defines the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA). While prolonged warmth during Roman and medieval times roughly coincides with the tendency towards societal prosperity across much of the North Atlantic/European sector and East Asia, major episodes of volcanically-forced summer cooling often presaged widespread famines, plague outbreaks and political upheavals. Our study reveals a larger amplitude of spatially synchronized summer temperature variation during the first millennium of the Common Era than previously recognised.
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15.
  • Büntgen, Ulf, et al. (författare)
  • Recent European drought extremes beyond Common Era background variability
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 14:4, s. 190-196
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Europe's recent summer droughts have had devastating ecological and economic consequences, but the severity and cause of these extremes remain unclear. Here we present 27,080 annually resolved and absolutely dated measurements of tree-ring stable carbon and oxygen (delta C-13 and delta O-18) isotopes from 21 living and 126 relict oaks (Quercus spp.) used to reconstruct central European summer hydroclimate from 75 bce to 2018 ce. We find that the combined inverse delta C-13 and delta O-18 values correlate with the June-August Palmer Drought Severity Index from 1901-2018 at 0.73 (P < 0.001). Pluvials around 200, 720 and 1100 ce, and droughts around 40, 590, 950 and 1510 ce and in the twenty-first century, are superimposed on a multi-millennial drying trend. Our reconstruction demonstrates that the sequence of recent European summer droughts since 2015 ce is unprecedented in the past 2,110 years. This hydroclimatic anomaly is probably caused by anthropogenic warming and associated changes in the position of the summer jet stream. European summer droughts in recent years are anomalously severe compared with those of the previous 2,000 years, according to a synthesis of annually resolved tree-ring carbon and oxygen isotope records.
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16.
  • Büntgen, Ulf, et al. (författare)
  • Reply to 'Limited Late Antique cooling'
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 10:4, s. 243-243
  • Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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17.
  • Büntgen, Ulf, et al. (författare)
  • SCIENCE IN SILENCE
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Erdkunde. - : Erdkunde. - 0014-0015 .- 2702-5985. ; 75:1, s. 61-63
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Intellectual and cultural benefits from extended periods of self-isolation have a long history. The ongoing decline in academic freedom, however, distinguishes the coronavirus disease from previous crises. Despite the unprecedented political and economic challenges, as well as the devastating societal disruptions caused by the global COVID-19 pandemic, this study focusses on the fresh opportunities the current coronavirus restrictions offer to question extant academic models and paradigms, in the spirit of creating a more equitable and sustainable research system in the future.
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18.
  • Büntgen, Ulf, et al. (författare)
  • Stable body size of Alpine ungulates
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Royal Society Open Science. - : The Royal Society. - 2054-5703. ; 7:7
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • In many species, decreasing body size has been associated with increasing temperatures. Although climate-induced phenotypic shifts, and evolutionary impacts, can affect the structure and functioning of marine and terrestrial ecosystems through biological and metabolic rules, evidence for shrinking body size is often challenged by (i) relatively short intervals of observation, (ii) a limited number of individuals, and (iii) confinement to small and isolated populations. To overcome these issues and provide important multi-species, long-term information for conservation managers and scientists, we compiled and analysed 222 961 measurements of eviscerated body weight, 170 729 measurements of hind foot length and 145 980 measurements of lower jaw length, in the four most abundant Alpine ungulate species: ibex (Capra ibex), chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra), red deer (Cervus elaphus) and roe deer (Capreolus capreolus). Regardless of age, sex and phylogeny, the body mass and size of these sympatric animals, from the eastern Swiss Alps, remained stable between 1991 and 2013. Neither global warming nor local hunting influenced the fitness of the wild ungulates studied at a detectable level. However, we cannot rule out possible counteracting effects of enhanced nutritional resources associated with longer and warmer growing seasons, as well as the animals' ability to migrate along extensive elevational gradients in the highly diversified alpine landscape of this study.
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19.
  • Büntgen, Ulf, et al. (författare)
  • The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 12
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Tree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794–2016 CE at 0.79 (p < 0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a moreconsensual picture of past climate variability.
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21.
  • Büntgen, Ulf, et al. (författare)
  • Tree-Ring Amplification of the Early Nineteenth-Century Summer Cooling in Central Europe
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Journal of Climate. - 0894-8755 .- 1520-0442. ; 28:13, s. 5272-5288
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Annually resolved and absolutely dated tree-ring chronologies are the most important proxy archives to reconstruct climate variability over centuries to millennia. However, the suitability of tree-ring chronologies to reflect the “true” spectral properties of past changes in temperature and hydroclimate has recently been debated. At issue is the accurate quantification of temperature differences between early nineteenth-century cooling and recent warming. In this regard, central Europe (CEU) offers the unique opportunity to compare evidence from instrumental measurements, paleomodel simulations, and proxy reconstructions covering both the exceptionally hot summer of 2003 and the year without summer in 1816. This study uses 565 Swiss stone pine (Pinus cembra) ring width samples from high-elevation sites in the Slovakian Tatra Mountains and Austrian Alps to reconstruct CEU summer temperatures over the past three centuries. This new temperature history is compared to different sets of instrumental measurements and state-of-the-art climate model simulations. All records independently reveal the coolest conditions in the 1810s and warmest after 1996, but the ring width–based reconstruction overestimates the intensity and duration of the early nineteenth-century summer cooling by approximately 1.5°C at decadal scales. This proxy-specific deviation is most likely triggered by inflated biological memory in response to reduced warm season temperature, together with changes in radiation and precipitation following the Tambora eruption in April 1815. While suggesting there exists a specific limitation in ring width chronologies to capture abrupt climate perturbations with increased climate system inertia, the results underline the importance of alternative dendrochronological and wood anatomical parameters, including stable isotopes and maximum density, to assess the frequency and severity of climatic extremes.
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22.
  • Čejka, Tomáš, et al. (författare)
  • Predicted climate change will increase the truffle cultivation potential in central Europe
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 10:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Climate change affects the distribution of many species, including Burgundy and Perigord truffles in central and southern Europe, respectively. The cultivation potential of these high-prized cash crops under future warming, however, remains highly uncertain. Here we perform a literature review to define the ecological requirements for the growth of both truffle species. This information is used to develop niche models, and to estimate their cultivation potential in the Czech Republic under current (2020) and future (2050) climate conditions. The Burgundy truffle is already highly suitable for cultivation on similar to 14% of agricultural land in the Czech Republic (8486 km(2)), whereas only similar to 8% of the warmest part of southern Moravia are currently characterised by a low suitability for Perigord truffles (6418 km(2)). Though rising temperatures under RCP8.5 will reduce the highly suitable cultivation areas by 7%, the 250 km(2) (3%) expansion under low-emission scenarios will stimulate Burgundy truffles to benefit from future warming. Doubling the moderate and expanding the highly suitable land by 352 km(2) in 2050, the overall cultivation potential for Perigord truffles will rise substantially. Our findings suggest that Burgundy and Perigord truffles could become important high-value crops for many regions in central Europe with alkaline soils. Although associated with uncertainty, long-term investments in truffle cultivation could generate a wide range of ecological and economic benefits.
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23.
  • Charpentier Ljungqvist, Fredrik, et al. (författare)
  • Assessing non-linearity in European temperature-sensitive tree-ring data
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Dendrochronologia. - : Elsevier BV. - 1125-7865 .- 1612-0051. ; 59
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • © 2019 The Authors We test the application of parametric, non-parametric, and semi-parametric calibration models for reconstructing summer (June–August) temperature from a set of tree-ring width and density data on the same dendro samples from 40 sites across Europe. By comparing the performance of the three calibration models on öpairs” of tree-ring width (TRW) and maximum density (MXD) or maximum blue intensity (MXBI), we test whether a non-linear temperature response is more prevalent in TRW or MXD (MXBI) data, and whether it is associated with the temperature sensitivity and/or autocorrelation structure of the dendro parameters. We note that MXD (MXBI) data have a significantly stronger temperature response than TRW data as well as a lower autocorrelation that is more similar to that of the instrumental temperature data, whereas TRW exhibits a öredder” variability continuum. This study shows that the use of non-parametric calibration models is more suitable for TRW data, while parametric calibration is sufficient for both MXD and MXBI data – that is, we show that TRW is by far the more non-linear proxy.
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24.
  • Charpentier Ljungqvist, Fredrik, et al. (författare)
  • Linking European building activity with plague history
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Journal of Archaeological Science. - : Elsevier BV. - 0305-4403 .- 1095-9238. ; 98, s. 81-92
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Variations in building activity reflect demographic, economic and social change during history. Tens of thousands of wooden constructions in Europe have been dendrochronologically dated in recent decades. We use the annually precise evidence from a unique dataset of 49 640 tree felling dates of historical constructions to reconstruct temporal changes in building activity between 1250 and 1699 CE across a large part of western and central Europe largely corresponding to the former Holy Roman Empire of the German Nation. Comparison with annual records of 9772 plague outbreaks shows that construction activity was significantly negatively correlated to the number of plague outbreaks, with the greatest decrease in construction following the larger outbreaks by three to four years after the start of the epidemics. Preceding the Black Death (1346-1353 CE) by five decades and the Great Famine (1315-1322 CE) by two decades, a significant decline in construction activity at c. 1300 CE is indicative of a societal crisis, associated with population stagnation or decline. Another dramatic decline in building activity coincides with the Thirty Years' War (1618-1648 CE) and confirms the devastating nature of this conflict. While construction activity was significantly lower during periods of high grain prices, no statistically robust relationship between the number of felling dates and past temperature or hydroclimate variations is found. This study demonstrates the value of dendrochronological felling dates as an indicator for times of crisis and prosperity during periods when documentary evidence is limited.
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25.
  • Charpentier Ljungqvist, Fredrik, 1982-, et al. (författare)
  • Regional Patterns of Late Medieval and Early Modern European Building Activity Revealed by Felling Dates
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-701X. ; 9
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Although variations in building activity are a useful indicator of societal well-being and demographic development, historical datasets for larger regions and longer periods are still rare. Here, we present 54,045 annually precise dendrochronological felling dates from historical construction timber from across most of Europe between 1250 and 1699 CE to infer variations in building activity. We use geostatistical techniques to compare spatiotemporal dynamics in past European building activity against independent demographic, economic, social and climatic data. We show that the felling dates capture major geographical patterns of demographic trends, especially in regions with dense data coverage. A particularly strong negative association is found between grain prices and the number of felling dates. In addition, a significant positive association is found between the number of felling dates and mining activity. These strong associations, with well-known macro-economic indicators from pre-industrial Europe, corroborate the use of felling dates as an independent source for exploring large-scale fluctuations of societal well-being and demographic development. Three prominent examples are the building boom in the Hanseatic League region of northeastern Germany during the 13th century, the onset of the Late Medieval Crisis in much of Europec. 1300, and the cessation of building activity in large parts of central Europe during armed conflicts such as the Thirty Years’ War (1618–1648 CE). Despite new insights gained from our European-wide felling date inventory, further studies are needed to investigate changes in construction activity of high versus low status buildings, and of urban versus rural buildings, and to compare those results with a variety of historical documentary sources and natural proxy archives.
  •  
26.
  • Chen, Feng, et al. (författare)
  • Role of Pacific Ocean climate in regulating runoff in the source areas of water transfer projects on the Pacific Rim
  • 2024
  • Ingår i: NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE. - 2397-3722. ; 7:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Over the past two decades, more frequent and intense climate events have seriously threatened the operation of water transfer projects in the Pacific Rim region. However, the role of climatic change in driving runoff variations in the water source areas of these projects is unclear. We used tree-ring data to reconstruct changes in the runoff of the Hanjiang River since 1580 CE representing an important water source area for China's south-north water transfer project. Comparisons with hydroclimatic reconstructions for the southwestern United States and central Chile indicated that the Pacific Rim region has experienced multiple coinciding droughts related to ENSO activity. Climate simulations indicate an increased likelihood of drought occurrence in the Pacific Rim region in the coming decades. The combination of warming-induced drought stresses with dynamic El Ni & ntilde;o (warming ENSO) patterns is a thread to urban agglomerations and agricultural regions that rely on water transfer projects along the Pacific Rim.
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27.
  • Esper, Jan, et al. (författare)
  • Eastern Mediterranean summer temperatures since 730 CE from Mt. Smolikas tree-ring densities
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 54:3-4, s. 1367-1382
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The Mediterranean has been identified as particularly vulnerable to climate change, yet a high-resolution temperature reconstruction extending back into the Medieval Warm Period is still lacking. Here we present such a record from a high-elevation site on Mt. Smolikas in northern Greece, where some of Europe's oldest trees provide evidence of warm season temperature variability back to 730 CE. The reconstruction is derived from 192 annually resolved, latewood density series from ancient living and relict Pinus heldreichii trees calibrating at r(1911-2015) = 0.73 against regional July-September (JAS) temperatures. Although the recent 1985-2014 period was the warmest 30-year interval (JAS Twrt.1961-1990 = + 0.71 degrees C) since the eleventh century, temperatures during the ninth to tenth centuries were even warmer, including the warmest reconstructed 30-year period from 876-905 (+ 0.78 degrees C). These differences between warm periods are statistically insignificant though. Several distinct cold episodes punctuate the Little Ice Age, albeit the coldest 30-year period is centered during high medieval times from 997-1026 (- 1.63 degrees C). Comparison with reconstructions from the Alps and Scandinavia shows that a similar cold episode occurred in central Europe but was absent at northern latitudes. The reconstructions also reveal different millennial-scale temperature trends (NEur = - 0.73 degrees C/1000 years, CEur = - 0.13 degrees C, SEur = + 0.23 degrees C) potentially triggered by latitudinal changes in summer insolation due to orbital forcing. These features, the opposing millennial-scale temperature trends and the medieval multi-decadal cooling recorded in Central Europe and the Mediterranean, are not well captured in state-of-the-art climate model simulations.
  •  
28.
  • Esper, Jan, et al. (författare)
  • Environmental drivers of historical grain price variations in Europe
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Climate Research (CR). - : Inter-Research Science Center. - 0936-577X .- 1616-1572. ; 72:1, s. 39-52
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Grain price (GP) volatility has been a central constituent of European commerce, with fluctuations in barley, rye and wheat prices having been carefully documented over centuries. However, a thorough understanding of the climatic and environmental drivers of long-term GP variations is still lacking. Here, we present a network of historical GP records from 19 cities in central and southern Europe for the 14th to 18th centuries. Spatial variability at interannual to multidecadal scales within this network was compared with reconstructed warm-season temperatures and hydro climatic conditions. We show that European GPs are tightly coupled with historical famines and that food shortages coincide with regional summer drought anomalies. Direct correlations between historical GP and reconstructed drought indices are low, hardly exceeding r = -0.2. Yet if the analysis is focused on extreme events, the climatic controls on high-frequency price variations become obvious: GPs were exceptionally high during dry periods and exceptionally low during wet periods. In addition, we find that GP variations were affected by temperature fluctuations at multidecadal timescales. The influence of summer temperatures is particularly strong over the 1650-1750 period, subsequent to the Thirty Years' War, reaching r = -0.40 at the European scale. This observation is supported by the lack of correlation among regional GP clusters during the period of hostilities and increased inter-regional correlation thereafter. These results demonstrate that the exchange of goods and spatial coherence of GP data in Europe were controlled both by socio-political and environmental factors, with environmental factors being more influential during peacetime.
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29.
  • Esper, Jan, et al. (författare)
  • Large-scale, millennial-length temperature reconstructions from tree-rings
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Dendrochronologia. - : Elsevier BV. - 1125-7865 .- 1612-0051. ; 50, s. 81-90
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Over the past two decades, the dendroclimate community has produced various annually resolved, warm season temperature reconstructions for the extratropical Northern Hemisphere. Here we compare these tree-ring based reconstructions back to 831 CE and present a set of basic metrics to provide guidance for non-specialists on their interpretation and use. We specifically draw attention to (i) the imbalance between (numerous) short and (few) long site chronologies incorporated into the hemispheric means, (ii) the beneficial effects of including maximum latewood density chronologies in the recently published reconstructions, (iii) a decrease in reconstruction covariance prior to 1400 CE, and (iv) the varying amplitudes and trends of reconstructed temperatures over the past 1100 years. Whereas the reconstructions agree on several important features, such as warmth during medieval times and cooler temperatures in the 17th and 19th centuries, they still exhibit substantial differences during 13th and 14th centuries. We caution users who might consider combining the reconstructions through simple averaging that all reconstructions share some of the same underlying tree-ring data, and provide four recommendations to guide future efforts to better understand past millennium temperature variability.
  •  
30.
  • Esper, Jan, et al. (författare)
  • Ranking of tree-ring based temperature reconstructions of the past millennium
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 145, s. 134-151
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Tree-ring chronologies are widely used to reconstruct high-to low-frequency variations in growing season temperatures over centuries to millennia. The relevance of these timeseries in large-scale climate reconstructions is often determined by the strength of their correlation against instrumental temperature data. However, this single criterion ignores several important quantitative and qualitative characteristics of tree-ring chronologies. Those characteristics are (i) data homogeneity, (ii) sample replication, (iii) growth coherence, (iv) chronology development, and (v) climate signal including the correlation with instrumental data. Based on these 5 characteristics, a reconstruction-scoring scheme is proposed and applied to 39 published, millennial-length temperature reconstructions from Asia, Europe, North America, and the Southern Hemisphere. Results reveal no reconstruction scores highest in every category and each has their own strengths and weaknesses. Reconstructions that perform better overall include N-Scan and Finland from Europe, E-Canada from North America, Yamal and Dzhelo from Asia. Reconstructions performing less well include W-Himalaya and Karakorum from Asia, Tatra and S-Finland from Europe, and Great Basin from North America. By providing a comprehensive set of criteria to evaluate tree-ring chronologies we hope to improve the development of large-scale temperature reconstructions spanning the past millennium. All reconstructions and their corresponding scores are provided at www.blogs.uni-mainz.de/fb09climatology.
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31.
  • Esper, Jan, et al. (författare)
  • Site-specific climatic signals in stable isotope records from Swedish pine forests
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Trees. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0931-1890 .- 1432-2285. ; 32:3, s. 855-869
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Pinus sylvestris tree-ring delta C-13 and delta O-18 records from locally moist sites in central and northern Sweden contain consistently stronger climate signals than their dry site counterparts. We produced twentieth century stable isotope data from Pinus sylvestris trees near lakeshores and inland sites in northern Sweden (near Kiruna) and central Sweden (near Stockholm) to evaluate the influence of changing microsite conditions on the climate sensitivity of tree-ring delta C-13 and delta O-18. The data reveal a latitudinal trend towards lower C and O isotope values near the Arctic tree line (-0.8 parts per thousand for delta C-13 and - 2.4 parts per thousand for delta O-18 relative to central Sweden) reflecting widely recognized atmospheric changes. At the microsite scale, delta C-13 decreases from the dry inland to the moist lakeshore sites (- 0.7 parts per thousand in Kiruna and - 1.2 parts per thousand in Stockholm), evidence of the importance of groundwater access to this proxy. While all isotope records from northern and central Sweden correlate significantly against temperature, precipitation, cloud cover and/or drought data, climate signals in the records from moist microsites are consistently stronger, which emphasizes the importance of site selection when producing stable isotope chronologies. Overall strongest correlations are found with summer temperature, except for delta O-18 from Stockholm correlating best with instrumental drought indices. These findings are complemented by significant positive correlations with temperature-sensitive ring width data in Kiruna, and inverse (or absent) correlations with precipitation-sensitive ring width data in Stockholm. A conclusive differentiation between leading and co-varying forcings is challenging based on only the calibration against often defective instrumental climate data, and would require an improved understanding of the physiological processes that control isotope fractionation at varying microsites and joined application of forward modelling.
  •  
32.
  • Esper, Jan, et al. (författare)
  • The IPCC’s reductive Common Era temperature history
  • 2024
  • Ingår i: Communications Earth & Environment. - 2662-4435. ; 5
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Common Era temperature variability has been a prominent component in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports over the last several decades and was twice featured in their Summary for Policymakers. A single reconstruction of mean Northern Hemisphere temperature variability was first highlighted in the 2001 Summary for Policymakers, despite other estimates that existed at the time. Subsequent reports assessed many large-scale temperature reconstructions, but the entirety of Common Era temperature history in the most recent Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was restricted to a single estimate of mean annual global temperatures. We argue that this focus on a single reconstruction is an insufficient summary of our understanding of temperature variability over the Common Era. We provide a complementary perspective by offering an alternative assessment of the state of our understanding in high-resolution paleoclimatology for the Common Era and call for future reports to present a more accurate and comprehensive assessment of our knowledge about this important period of human and climate history.
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33.
  • Essell, Helen, et al. (författare)
  • A frequency-optimised temperature record for the Holocene
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - 1748-9326. ; 18:11
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Existing global mean surface temperature reconstructions for the Holocene lack high-frequency variability that is essential for contextualising recent trends and extremes in the Earth's climate system. Here, we isolate and recombine archive-specific climate signals to generate a frequency-optimised record of interannual to multi-millennial temperature changes for the past 12 000 years. Average temperatures before ∼8000 years BP and after ∼4000 years BP were 0.26 (±2.84) °C and 0.07 (±2.11) °C cooler than the long-term mean (0–12 000 years BP), while the Holocene Climate Optimum ∼7000–4000 years BP was 0.40 (±1.86) °C warmer. Biased towards Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures, our multi-proxy record captures the spectral properties of transient Earth system model simulations for the same spatial and season domain. The new frequency-optimised trajectory emphasises the importance and complex interplay of natural climate forcing factors throughout the Holocene, with an approximation of the full range of past temperature changes providing novel insights for policymakers addressing the risks of recent anthropogenic warming.
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34.
  • Greaves, Ciara, et al. (författare)
  • Remarkably high blue ring occurrence in Estonian Scots pines in 1976 reveals wood anatomical evidence of extreme autumnal cooling
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Trees. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0931-1890 .- 1432-2285. ; 37:2, s. 511-522
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • ‘Blue rings’ (BRs) are visual indicators of less lignified cell walls typically formed towards the end of a tree’s growing season. Though BRs have been associated with ephemeral surface cooling, often following large volcanic eruptions, the intensity of cold spells necessary to produce BRs, as well as the consistency of their formation within and between trees still remains uncertain. Here, we report an exceptionally high BR occurrence within and between Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) trees at two sites in Estonia, including the first published whole-stem analysis for BRs. Daily meteorological measurements from a nearby station allowed us to investigate the role temperature has played in BR formation since the beginning of the twentieth century. The single year in which BRs were consistently formed within and amongst most trees was 1976. While the summer of 1976 is well known for an exceptional heatwave in Northwest Europe, mean September and October temperatures were remarkably low over Eastern Europe, and 3.8 °C below the 1961–1990 mean at our sites. Our findings contribute to a better eco-physiological interpretation of BRs, and further demonstrate their ability to reveal ephemeral cooling not captured by dendrochronological ring width and latewood density measurements. 
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35.
  • Hartl, Claudia, et al. (författare)
  • Micro-site conditions affect Fennoscandian forest growth
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Dendrochronologia. - : Elsevier BV. - 1125-7865 .- 1612-0051. ; 65
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The long tradition of dendroclimatological studies in Fennoscandia is fostered by the exceptional longevity and temperature sensitivity of tree growth, as well as the existence of well-preserved subfossil wood in shallow lakes and extent peat bogs. Although some of the world’s longest ring width and density-based climate reconstructions have been developed in northern Fennoscandia, it is still unclear if differences in micro-site ecology matter, and if so, whether they have been considered sufficiently in previous studies. We developed a Fennoscandia-wide network of 44 Scots pine ring width chronologies from 22 locations between 59°–70 °N and 16°–31 °E, to assess the effects of moist lakeshores and dry inland micro-sites on tree growth. Our network reveals a strong dependency of pine growth on July temperature, which is also reflected in latitude. Differences in forest productivity between moist and dry micro-sites are likely caused by associated effects on soil temperature. While trees at moist micro-sites at western locations exhibit higher growth rates, this pattern is reversed in the continental eastern part of the network, where increased ring widths are found at drier sites. In addition to the latitudinal increase in growth sensitivity to July temperature, pines at moist sites exhibit an increased dependency of summer warmth. The highest temperature sensitivity and growth coherency, and thus greatest suitability for summer temperature reconstructions, is found in those regions where July mean temperatures range between 11.5 and 13.5 °C, and May precipitation totals do not exceed 100 mm. Our study not only provides guidance for the selection of sampling sites for tree ring-based climate reconstructions, but also reveals the effect of micro-site ecology on Fennoscandian forest growth. The manifestation of micro-site effects varies substantially over the Fennoscandian boreal forest and is predominately triggered by the geographical setting of the stand as expressed by differing abiotic site factors.
  •  
36.
  • Hellmann, Lena, et al. (författare)
  • Diverse growth trends and climate responses across Eurasia's boreal forest
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 11:7
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The area covered by boreal forests accounts for similar to 16% of the global and 22% of the Northern Hemisphere landmass. Changes in the productivity and functioning of this circumpolar biome not only have strong effects on species composition and diversity at regional to larger scales, but also on the Earth's carbon cycle. Although temporal inconsistency in the response of tree growth to temperature has been reported from some locations at the higher northern latitudes, a systematic dendroecological network assessment is still missing for most of the boreal zone. Here, we analyze the geographical patterns of changes in summer temperature and precipitation across northern Eurasia >60 degrees N since 1951 AD, as well as the growth trends and climate responses of 445 Pinus, Larix and Picea ring width chronologies in the same area and period. In contrast to widespread summer warming, fluctuations in precipitation and tree growth are spatially more diverse and overall less distinct. Although the influence of summer temperature on ring formation is increasing with latitude and distinct moisture effects are restricted to a few southern locations, growth sensitivity to June-July temperature variability is only significant at 16.6% of all sites (p <= 0.01). By revealing complex climate constraints on the productivity of Eurasia's northern forests, our results question the a priori suitability of boreal tree-ring width chronologies for reconstructing summer temperatures. This study further emphasizes regional climate differences and their role on the dynamics of boreal ecosystems, and also underlines the importance of free data access to facilitate the compilation and evaluation of massively replicated and updated dendroecological networks.
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37.
  • Izdebski, Adam, et al. (författare)
  • Realising consilience : How better communication between archaeologists, historians and natural scientists can transform the study of past climate change in the Mediterranean
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 136, s. 5-22
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • This paper reviews the methodological and practical issues relevant to the ways in which natural scientists, historians and archaeologists may collaborate in the study of past climatic changes in the Mediterranean basin. We begin by discussing the methodologies of these three disciplines in the context of the consilience debate, that is, attempts to unify different research methodologies that address similar problems. We demonstrate that there are a number of similarities in the fundamental methodology between history, archaeology, and the natural sciences that deal with the past (palaeoenvironmental sciences), due to their common interest in studying societal and environmental phenomena that no longer exist. The three research traditions, for instance, employ specific narrative structures as a means of communicating research results. We thus present and compare the narratives characteristic of each discipline; in order to engage in fruitful interdisciplinary exchange, we must first understand how each deals with the societal impacts of climatic change. In the second part of the paper, we focus our discussion on the four major practical issues that hinder communication between the three disciplines. These include terminological misunderstandings, problems relevant to project design, divergences in publication cultures, and differing views on the impact of research. Among other recommendations, we suggest that scholars from the three disciplines should aim to create a joint publication culture, which should also appeal to a wider public, both inside and outside of academia.
  •  
38.
  • Kirdyanov, Alexander, et al. (författare)
  • Notes towards an optimal sampling strategy in dendroclimatology
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Dendrochronologia. - : Elsevier BV. - 1125-7865 .- 1612-0051. ; 52, s. 162-166
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Though the extraction of increment cores is common practice in tree-ring research, there is no standard for the number of samples per tree, or trees per site needed to accurately describe the common growth pattern of a discrete population of trees over space and time. Tree-ring chronologies composed of living, subfossil and archaeological material often combine an uneven distribution of increment cores and disc samples. The effects of taking one or two cores per tree, or even the inclusion of multiple radii measurements from entire discs, on chronology development and quality remain unreported. Here, we present four new larch (Larix cajanderi Mayr) ring width chronologies from the same 20 trees in northeastern Siberia that have been independently developed using different combinations of core and disc samples. Our experiment reveals: i) sawing is much faster than coring, with the latter not always hitting the pith; ii) the disc-based chronology contains fewer locally absent rings, extends further back in time and exhibits more growth coherency; iii) although the sampling design has little impact on the overall chronology behaviour, lower frequency information is more robustly obtained from the disc measurements that also tend to reflect a slightly stronger temperature signal. In quantifying the influence of sampling strategy on the quality of tree-ring width chronologies, and their suitability for climate reconstructions, this study provides useful insights for optimizing fieldwork campaigns, as well as for developing composite chronologies from different wood sources.
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39.
  • Kirdyanov, Alexander V., et al. (författare)
  • Ecological and conceptual consequences of Arctic pollution
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Ecology Letters. - : Wiley. - 1461-023X .- 1461-0248. ; 23:12, s. 1827-1837
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Although the effect of pollution on forest health and decline received much attention in the 1980s, it has not been considered to explain the 'Divergence Problem' in dendroclimatology; a decoupling of tree growth from rising air temperatures since the 1970s. Here we use physical and biogeochemical measurements of hundreds of living and dead conifers to reconstruct the impact of heavy industrialisation around Norilsk in northern Siberia. Moreover, we develop a forward model with surface irradiance forcing to quantify long-distance effects of anthropogenic emissions on the functioning and productivity of Siberia's taiga. Downwind from the world's most polluted Arctic region, tree mortality rates of up to 100% have destroyed 24,000 km(2)boreal forest since the 1960s, coincident with dramatic increases in atmospheric sulphur, copper, and nickel concentrations. In addition to regional ecosystem devastation, we demonstrate how 'Arctic Dimming' can explain the circumpolar 'Divergence Problem', and discuss implications on the terrestrial carbon cycle.
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40.
  • Klippel, Lara, et al. (författare)
  • Differing pre-industrial cooling trends between tree rings and lower-resolution temperature proxies
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 16:2, s. 729-742
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The new PAGES2k global compilation of temperature-sensitive proxies offers an unprecedented opportunity to study regional to global trends associated with orbitally driven changes in solar irradiance over the past 2 millennia. Here, we analyze pre-industrial long-term trends from 1 to 1800 CE across the PAGES2k dataset and find that, in contrast to the gradual cooling apparent in ice core, marine, and lake sediment data, tree rings do not exhibit the same decline. To understand why tree-ring proxies lack any evidence of a significant pre-industrial cooling, we divide those data by location (high Northern Hemisphere latitudes vs. midlatitudes), seasonal response (annual vs. summer), de-trending method, and temperature sensitivity (high vs. low). We conclude that the ability of tree-ring proxies to detect pre-industrial, millennial-long cooling is not affected by latitude, seasonal sensitivity, or detrending method. Caution is advised when using multi-proxy approaches to reconstruct long-term temperature changes over the entire Common Era.
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41.
  • Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier, et al. (författare)
  • Ranking of tree-ring based hydroclimate reconstructions of the past millennium
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 230
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • © 2019 The Authors To place recent hydroclimate changes, including drought occurrences, in a long-term historical context, tree-ring records serve as an important natural archive. Here, we evaluate 46 millennium-long tree-ring based hydroclimate reconstructions for their Data Homogeneity, Sample Replication, Growth Coherence, Chronology Development, and Climate Signal based on criteria published by Esper et al. (2016) to assess tree-ring based temperature reconstructions. The compilation of 46 individually calibrated site reconstructions includes 37 different tree species and stem from North America (n = 29), Asia (n = 10); Europe (n = 5), northern Africa (n = 1) and southern South America (n = 1). For each criterion, the individual reconstructions were ranked in four groups, and results showed that no reconstruction scores highest or lowest for all analyzed parameters. We find no geographical differences in the overall ranking, but reconstructions from arid and semi-arid environments tend to score highest. A strong and stable hydroclimate signal is found to be of greater importance than a long calibration period. The most challenging trade-off identified is between high continuous sample replications, as well as a well-mixed age class distribution over time, and a good internal growth coherence. Unlike temperature reconstructions, a high proportion of the hydroclimate reconstructions are produced using individual series detrending methods removing centennial-scale variability. By providing a quantitative and objective evaluation of all available tree-ring based hydroclimate reconstructions we hope to boost future improvements in the development of such records and provide practical guidance to secondary users of these reconstructions.
  •  
42.
  • Piermattei, Alma, et al. (författare)
  • A millennium-long 'Blue Ring' chronology from the Spanish Pyrenees reveals severe ephemeral summer cooling after volcanic eruptions
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 15:12
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • 'Blue Rings' (BRs) are distinct wood anatomical anomalies recently discovered in several tree species from different sites. While it is evident that they are associated with a cooling-induced lack of cell wall lignification, BRs have yet to be evaluated systematically in paleoclimate studies. Here, we present a continuous wood anatomical assessment of 31 living and relict pine samples from a high-elevation site in the central Spanish Pyrenees that span the period 1150-2017 CE at annual resolution. While most BR years coincide with cold summer temperatures and many BRs follow large volcanic eruptions, some were formed during overall warm summers. We also see a differential response between eruptions: the Samalas eruption is followed by 80% BRs in 1258, but only a modest signal is evident after the 1815 Tambora eruption, and there are no wood anatomical effects of the Laki eruption in 1783-1784. Apparently linked to a cluster of tropical eruptions in 1695 and 1696 CE, 85% BRs occurred in 1698. This new wood anatomical evidence is corroborated by the record of sulphur deposition in polar ice cores, and corresponds with catastrophic famine and unprecedented mortality in Scotland. The extremely rare occurrence of consecutive BRs in 1345 and 1346 marks the onset and spread of the Black Death, Europe's most devastating plague pandemic. In their ability to capture severe ephemeral cold spells, as short as several days or weeks, BR chronologies can help to investigate and understand the impacts of volcanism on climate and society.
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43.
  • Reimer, Paula J., et al. (författare)
  • The IntCal20 Northern Hemisphere Radiocarbon Age Calibration Curve (0-55 cal kBP)
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Radiocarbon. - 0033-8222. ; 62:4, s. 725-757
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Radiocarbon (C) ages cannot provide absolutely dated chronologies for archaeological or paleoenvironmental studies directly but must be converted to calendar age equivalents using a calibration curve compensating for fluctuations in atmospheric C concentration. Although calibration curves are constructed from independently dated archives, they invariably require revision as new data become available and our understanding of the Earth system improves. In this volume the international C calibration curves for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as for the ocean surface layer, have been updated to include a wealth of new data and extended to 55,000 cal BP. Based on tree rings, IntCal20 now extends as a fully atmospheric record to ca. 13,900 cal BP. For the older part of the timescale, IntCal20 comprises statistically integrated evidence from floating tree-ring chronologies, lacustrine and marine sediments, speleothems, and corals. We utilized improved evaluation of the timescales and location variable C offsets from the atmosphere (reservoir age, dead carbon fraction) for each dataset. New statistical methods have refined the structure of the calibration curves while maintaining a robust treatment of uncertainties in the C ages, the calendar ages and other corrections. The inclusion of modeled marine reservoir ages derived from a three-dimensional ocean circulation model has allowed us to apply more appropriate reservoir corrections to the marine C data rather than the previous use of constant regional offsets from the atmosphere. Here we provide an overview of the new and revised datasets and the associated methods used for the construction of the IntCal20 curve and explore potential regional offsets for tree-ring data. We discuss the main differences with respect to the previous calibration curve, IntCal13, and some of the implications for archaeology and geosciences ranging from the recent past to the time of the extinction of the Neanderthals.
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44.
  • Seim, Andrea, et al. (författare)
  • Climate sensitivity of a millennium-long pine chronology from Albania
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: Climate Research. - : Inter-Research Science Center. - 0936-577X .- 1616-1572. ; 51:3, s. 217-228
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Considerable progress has been made in assessing European climate variations of the last millennium, but little is known about the Mediterranean region and particularly its eastern part including the Balkan Peninsula. This area, however, will be particularly vulnerable to a predicted temperature increase and precipitation decrease, likely resulting in amplified drought extremes and episodes. Here we present a well-replicated composite tree-ring width chronology of millennial length from Albania, Balkan Peninsula. The Pinus heldreichii Christ dataset contains 302 series from 217 living and dead trees from 3 high-elevation sites, and spans the years 968–2008. Signal strength and growth–climate relationships were investigated using subsets according to location, age class, and growth level, as well as differently detrended chronology versions. Growth comparisons amongst the 3 sites’ chronologies, between age classes and between growth-rate groups reveal an overall strong common signal. Growth–climate relationships over the last 100 yr, however, indicate that tree-ring formation does not depend on one single dominant factor, but rather on various combinations of summer precipitation and temperature resulting in temporally varying drought sensitivity. Our results emphasize a mixed and variable climate signal, corresponding with findings from other P. heldreichii sites across the Balkan Peninsula and Southern Italy.
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45.
  • Tegel, Willy, et al. (författare)
  • A recent growth increase of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) at its Mediterranean distribution limit contradicts drought stress
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: European Journal of Forest Research. - : Springer Berlin Heidelberg. - 1612-4669 .- 1612-4677. ; 133:1, s. 61-71
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Future changes in tree growth, associated with a warmer and drier climate, are predicted for many species and locations across the European Mediterranean Basin. However, quantification of the intensity and severity of related consequences for forest ecosystem functioning and productivity remains challenging. Species-specific distribution limits that are particularly sensitive to small changes in the ambient climate may provide an ideal test bed to assess the nature of past growth trends and extremes and their responsible controls. Here, we seek to understand how twentieth century climate change affected the growth of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) nearby its south-eastern distribution limit in Albania and Macedonia on the Balkan Peninsula. We sampled 93 living trees from undisturbed mixed forest stands at ~1,450 m a.s.l. and 29 timbers from nearby historical buildings. Application of different tree-ring detrending techniques allowed robust composite chronologies with varying degrees of high- to low-frequency variability to be developed back to 1648 ad. Comparison with local meteorological station measurements and continental grid-box climate indices revealed spatiotemporal instability in growth–climate response patterns. Nevertheless, year-to-year and decadal-long fluctuations in radial beech growth were significantly (P < 0.001) negatively correlated at −0.61 with June–September temperature over the 1951–1995 period. This (inverse) relationship between increased beech growth and decreased summer temperature is somewhat indicative for the importance of plant-available soil moisture, which likely controls ring width formation near the species-specific south-eastern distribution limit. Significant positive correlations between beech growth and drought (scPDSI; r = 0.57) confirm metabolistic drought constraints. However, an unexpected late twentieth century growth increase not only contradicts the previously observed growth dependency to summer soil moisture, but also denies any putative drought-induced forest ecosystem suppression in this part of the Mediterranean Basin.
  •  
46.
  • Tegel, Willy, et al. (författare)
  • Higher groundwater levels in western Europe characterize warm periods in the Common Era
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 10:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Hydroclimate, the interplay of moisture supply and evaporative demand, is essential for ecological and agricultural systems. The understanding of long-term hydroclimate changes is, however, limited because instrumental measurements are inadequate in length to capture the full range of precipitation and temperature variability and by the uneven distribution of high-resolution proxy records in space and time. Here, we present a tree-ring-based reconstruction of interannual to centennial-scale groundwater level (GWL) fluctuations for south-western Germany and north-eastern France. Continuously covering the period of 265-2017 CE, our new record from the Upper Rhine Valley shows that the warm periods during late Roman, medieval and recent times were characterized by higher GWLs. Lower GWLs were found during the cold periods of the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA; 536 to similar to 660 CE) and the Little Ice Age (LIA; between medieval and recent warming). The reconstructed GWL fluctuations are in agreement with multidecadal North Atlantic climate variability derived from independent proxies. Warm and wet hydroclimate conditions are found during warm states of the Atlantic Ocean and positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation on decadal scales.
  •  
47.
  • Trachsel, Mathias, et al. (författare)
  • Multi-archive summer temperature reconstruction for the European Alps, AD 1053-1996
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 46, s. 66-79
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We present a multi-archive, multi-proxy summer temperature reconstruction for the European Alpscovering the period AD 1053-1996 using tree-ring and lake sediment data. The new reconstruction isbased on nine different calibration approaches and errors were estimated conservatively. Summertemperatures of the last millennium are characterised by two warm (AD 1053-1171 and 1823-1996) andtwo cold phases (AD 1172-1379 and 1573-1822). Highest pre-industrial summer temperatures of the12th century were 0.3 degC warmer than the 20th century mean but 0.35 degC colder than proxy derivedtemperatures at the end of the 20th century. The lowest temperatures at the end of the 16th centurywere ~1 degC lower than the 20th century mean.
  •  
48.
  • Trnka, Miroslav, et al. (författare)
  • Priority questions in multidisciplinary drought research
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Climate Research (CR). - : Inter-Research Science Center. - 0936-577X .- 1616-1572. ; 75, s. 241-260
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Addressing timely and relevant questions across amultitude of spatio-temporal scales,state-of-the-art interdisciplinary drought research will likely increase in importance under projectedclimate change. Given the complexity of the various direct and indirect causes and consequences of adrier world, scientific tasks need to be coordinated efficiently. Drought-related research endeavorsranging from individual projects to global initiatives therefore require prioritization. Here, wepresent 60 priority questions for optimizing future drought research. This topical catalogue reflectsthe experience of 65 scholars from 21 countries and almost 20 fields of research in both naturalsciences and the humanities. The set of drought-related questions primarily covers drought monitoring,impacts, forecasting, climatology, adaptation, as well as planning and policy. The questionshighlight the increasingly important role of remote sensing techniques in drought monitoring, importanceof drought forecasting and understanding the relationships between drought parametersand drought impacts, but also challenges of drought adaptation and preparedness policies.
  •  
49.
  • Wilson, Rob, et al. (författare)
  • Last millennium northern hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part I: The long term context
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791. ; 134, s. 1-18
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Large-scale millennial length Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstructions have been progressively improved over the last 20 years as new datasets have been developed. This paper, and its companion (Part II, Anchukaitis et al. in prep), details the latest tree-ring (TR) based NH land air temperature reconstruction from a temporal and spatial perspective. This work is the first product of a consortium called N-TREND (Northern Hemisphere Tree-Ring Network Development) which brings together dendroclimatologists to identify a collective strategy for improving large-scale summer temperature reconstructions. The new reconstruction, N-TREND2015, utilises 54 records, a significant expansion compared with previous TR studies, and yields an improved reconstruction with stronger statistical calibration metrics. N-TREND2015 is relatively insensitive to the compositing method and spatial weighting used and validation metrics indicate that the new record portrays reasonable coherence with large scale summer temperatures and is robust at all time-scales from 918 to 2004 where at least 3 TR records exist from each major continental mass. N-TREND2015 indicates a longer and warmer medieval period (~900-1170) than portrayed by previous TR NH reconstructions and by the CMIP5 model ensemble, but with better overall agreement between records for the last 600 years. Future dendroclimatic projects should focus on developing new long records from data-sparse regions such as North America and eastern Eurasia as well as ensuring the measurement of parameters related to latewood density to complement ring-width records which can improve local based calibration substantially.
  •  
50.
  • Yang, Bao, et al. (författare)
  • Long-term decrease in Asian monsoon rainfall and abrupt climate change events over the past 6,700 years
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - Washington : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 118:30
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability and its long-term ecological and societal impacts extending back to Neolithic times are poorly understood due to a lack of high-resolution climate proxy data. Here, we present a precisely dated and well-calibrated treering stable isotope chronology from the Tibetan Plateau with 1- to 5-y resolution that reflects high- to low-frequency ASM variability from 4680 BCE to 2011 CE. Superimposed on a persistent drying trend since the mid-Holocene, a rapid decrease in moisture availability between similar to 2000 and similar to 1500 BCE caused a dry hydroclimatic regime from similar to 1675 to similar to 1185 BCE, with mean precipitation estimated at 42 +/- 4% and 5 +/- 2% lower than during themid-Holocene and the instrumental period, respectively. This second-millennium-BCE megadrought marks the mid-to late Holocene transition, during which regional forests declined and enhanced aeolian activity affected northern Chinese ecosystems. We argue that this abrupt aridification starting similar to 2000 BCE contributed to the shift of Neolithic cultures in northern China and likely triggered human migration and societal transformation.
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