| 1. |
- Pennells, Lisa, et al.
(författare)
-
Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration : individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies
- 2019
-
Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 40:7, s. 621-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after ‘recalibration’, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.Methods and results: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at ‘high’ 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29–39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22–24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44–51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37–39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms.Conclusion: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.
|
|
| 2. |
- Di Angelantonio, Emanuele, et al.
(författare)
-
Association of Cardiometabolic Multimorbidity With Mortality : The Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA). - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 0098-7484 .- 1538-3598. ; 314:1, s. 52-60
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- IMPORTANCE The prevalence of cardiometabolic multimorbidity is increasing.OBJECTIVE To estimate reductions in life expectancy associated with cardiometabolic multimorbidity.DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Age-and sex-adjusted mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (689 300 participants; 91 cohorts; years of baseline surveys: 1960-2007; latest mortality follow-up: April 2013; 128 843 deaths). The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were compared with those from the UK Biobank (499 808 participants; years of baseline surveys: 2006-2010; latest mortality follow-up: November 2013; 7995 deaths). Cumulative survival was estimated by applying calculated age-specific HRs for mortality to contemporary US age-specific death rates. EXPOSURES A history of 2 or more of the following: diabetes mellitus, stroke, myocardial infarction (MI).MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES All-cause mortality and estimated reductions in life expectancy.RESULTS In participants in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration without a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI at baseline (reference group), the all-cause mortality rate adjusted to the age of 60 years was 6.8 per 1000 person-years. Mortality rates per 1000 person-years were 15.6 in participants with a history of diabetes, 16.1 in those with stroke, 16.8 in those with MI, 32.0 in those with both diabetes and MI, 32.5 in those with both diabetes and stroke, 32.8 in those with both stroke and MI, and 59.5 in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. Compared with the reference group, the HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.9 (95% CI, 1.8-2.0) in participants with a history of diabetes, 2.1 (95% CI, 2.0-2.2) in those with stroke, 2.0 (95% CI, 1.9-2.2) in those with MI, 3.7 (95% CI, 3.3-4.1) in those with both diabetes and MI, 3.8 (95% CI, 3.5-4.2) in those with both diabetes and stroke, 3.5 (95% CI, 3.1-4.0) in those with both stroke and MI, and 6.9 (95% CI, 5.7-8.3) in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were similar to those from the more recently recruited UK Biobank. The HRs were little changed after further adjustment for markers of established intermediate pathways (eg, levels of lipids and blood pressure) and lifestyle factors (eg, smoking, diet). At the age of 60 years, a history of any 2 of these conditions was associated with 12 years of reduced life expectancy and a history of all 3 of these conditions was associated with 15 years of reduced life expectancy.CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Mortality associated with a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI was similar for each condition. Because any combination of these conditions was associated with multiplicative mortality risk, life expectancy was substantially lower in people with multimorbidity.
|
|
| 3. |
- Wood, Angela M., et al.
(författare)
-
Risk thresholds for alcohol consumption : combined analysis of individual-participant data for 599 912 current drinkers in 83 prospective studies
- 2018
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 391:10129, s. 1513-1523
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Low-risk limits recommended for alcohol consumption vary substantially across different national guidelines. To define thresholds associated with lowest risk for all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease, we studied individual-participant data from 599 912 current drinkers without previous cardiovascular disease.Methods: We did a combined analysis of individual-participant data from three large-scale data sources in 19 high-income countries (the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD, and the UK Biobank). We characterised dose-response associations and calculated hazard ratios (HRs) per 100 g per week of alcohol (12.5 units per week) across 83 prospective studies, adjusting at least for study or centre, age, sex, smoking, and diabetes. To be eligible for the analysis, participants had to have information recorded about their alcohol consumption amount and status (ie, non-drinker vs current drinker), plus age, sex, history of diabetes and smoking status, at least 1 year of follow-up after baseline, and no baseline history of cardiovascular disease. The main analyses focused on current drinkers, whose baseline alcohol consumption was categorised into eight predefined groups according to the amount in grams consumed per week. We assessed alcohol consumption in relation to all-cause mortality, total cardiovascular disease, and several cardiovascular disease subtypes. We corrected HRs for estimated long-term variability in alcohol consumption using 152 640 serial alcohol assessments obtained some years apart (median interval 5.6 years [5th-95th percentile 1.04-13.5]) from 71 011 participants from 37 studies.Findings: In the 599 912 current drinkers included in the analysis, we recorded 40 310 deaths and 39 018 incident cardiovascular disease events during 5.4 million person-years of follow-up. For all-cause mortality, we recorded a positive and curvilinear association with the level of alcohol consumption, with the minimum mortality risk around or below 100 g per week. Alcohol consumption was roughly linearly associated with a higher risk of stroke (HR per 100 g per week higher consumption 1.14, 95% CI, 1.10-1.17), coronary disease excluding myocardial infarction (1.06, 1.00-1.11), heart failure (1.09, 1.03-1.15), fatal hypertensive disease (1.24, 1.15-1.33); and fatal aortic aneurysm (1.15, 1.03-1.28). By contrast, increased alcohol consumption was loglinearly associated with a lower risk of myocardial infarction (HR 0.94, 0.91-0.97). In comparison to those who reported drinking >0-<= 100 g per week, those who reported drinking >100-<= 200 g per week, >200-<= 350 g per week, or >350 g per week had lower life expectancy at age 40 years of approximately 6 months, 1-2 years, or 4-5 years, respectively.Interpretation: In current drinkers of alcohol in high-income countries, the threshold for lowest risk of all-cause mortality was about 100 g/week. For cardiovascular disease subtypes other than myocardial infarction, there were no clear risk thresholds below which lower alcohol consumption stopped being associated with lower disease risk. These data support limits for alcohol consumption that are lower than those recommended in most current guidelines.
|
|
| 4. |
- Gingell, Imogen, et al.
(författare)
-
MMS Observations and Hybrid Simulations of Surface Ripples at a Marginally Quasi-Parallel Shock
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Space Physics. - : AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION. - 2169-9380 .- 2169-9402. ; 122:11, s. 11003-11017
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Simulations and observations of collisionless shocks have shown that deviations of the nominal local shock normal orientation, that is, surface waves or ripples, are expected to propagate in the ramp and overshoot of quasi-perpendicular shocks. Here we identify signatures of a surface ripple propagating during a crossing of Earth's marginally quasi-parallel (theta(Bn) similar to 45 degrees) or quasi-parallel bow shock on 27 November 2015 06: 01: 44 UTC by the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission and determine the ripple's properties using multispacecraft methods. Using two-dimensional hybrid simulations, we confirm that surface ripples are a feature of marginally quasi-parallel and quasi-parallel shocks under the observed solar wind conditions. In addition, since these marginally quasi-parallel and quasi-parallel shocks are expected to undergo a cyclic reformation of the shock front, we discuss the impact of multiple sources of nonstationarity on shock structure. Importantly, ripples are shown to be transient phenomena, developing faster than an ion gyroperiod and only during the period of the reformation cycle when a newly developed shock ramp is unaffected by turbulence in the foot. We conclude that the change in properties of the ripple observed by MMS is consistent with the reformation of the shock front over a time scale of an ion gyroperiod.
|
|
| 5. |
- Raufer, Stefan, et al.
(författare)
-
Anatomy of the Human Osseous Spiral Lamina and Cochlear Partition Bridge: Relevance for Cochlear Partition Motion
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Journal of the Association for Research in Otolaryngology. - : SPRINGER. - 1525-3961 .- 1438-7573. ; 21:2, s. 171-182
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The classic view of cochlear partition (CP) motion, generalized to be for all mammals, was derived from basal-turn measurements in laboratory animals. Recently, we reported motion of the human CP in the cochlear base that differs substantially from the classic view. We described a human soft tissue "bridge" (non-existent in the classic view) between the osseous spiral lamina (OSL) and basilar membrane (BM), and showed how OSL and bridge move in response to sound. Here, we detail relevant human anatomy to better understand the relationship between form and function. The bridge and BM have similar widths that increase linearly from base to apex, whereas the OSL width decreases from base to apex, leading to an approximately constant total CP width throughout the cochlea. The bony three-dimensional OSL microstructure, reconstructed from unconventionally thin, 2-mu m histological sections, revealed thin, radially wide OSL plates with pores that vary in size, extent, and distribution with cochlear location. Polarized light microscopy revealed collagen fibers in the BM that spread out medially through the bridge to connect to the OSL. The long width and porosity of the OSL may explain its considerable bending flexibility. The similarity of BM and bridge widths along the cochlea, both containing continuous collagen fibers, may make them a functional unit and allow maximum CP motion near the bridge-BM boundary, as recently described. These anatomical findings may help us better understand the motion of the structures surrounding the organ of Corti and how they shape the input to the cochlear sensory mechanism.
|
|
| 6. |
- Gill, Dipender, et al.
(författare)
-
ACE inhibition and cardiometabolic risk factors, lung ACE2 and TMPRSS2 gene expression, and plasma ACE2 levels : a Mendelian randomization study
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Royal Society Open Science. - : ROYAL SOC. - 2054-5703. ; 7:11
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) and serine protease TMPRSS2 have been implicated in cell entry for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus responsible for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The expression of ACE2 and TMPRSS2 in the lung epithelium might have implications for the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and severity of COVID-19. We use human genetic variants that proxy angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor drug effects and cardiovascular risk factors to investigate whether these exposures affect lung ACE2 and TMPRSS2 gene expression and circulating ACE2 levels. We observed no consistent evidence of an association of genetically predicted serum ACE levels with any of our outcomes. There was weak evidence for an association of genetically predicted serum ACE levels with ACE2 gene expression in the Lung eQTL Consortium (p = 0.014), but this finding did not replicate. There was evidence of a positive association of genetic liability to type 2 diabetes mellitus with lung ACE2 gene expression in the Gene-Tissue Expression (GTEx) study (p = 4 x 10(-4)) and with circulating plasma ACE2 levels in the INTERVAL study (p = 0.03), but not with lung ACE2 expression in the Lung eQTL Consortium study (p = 0.68). There were no associations of genetically proxied liability to the other cardiometabolic traits with any outcome. This study does not provide consistent evidence to support an effect of serum ACE levels (as a proxy for ACE inhibitors) or cardiometabolic risk factors on lung ACE2 and TMPRSS2 expression or plasma ACE2 levels.
|
|
