| 1. |
- Micah, Angela E., et al.
(författare)
-
Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19 : a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2050
- 2021
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 398:10308, s. 1317-1343
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020. Methods We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$ per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050. Findings In 2019, health spending globally reached $8. 8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8.7-8.8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total, $40.4 billion (0.5%, 95% UI 0.5-0.5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24.6% (UI 24.0-25.1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54.8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this, $13.7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12.3 billion was newly committed and $1.4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3.1 billion (22.4%) of the funds focused on country-level coordination and $2.4 billion (17.9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714.4 million (7.7%) of COVID-19 development assistance for health went to Latin America, despite this region reporting 34.3% of total recorded COVID-19 deaths in low-income or middle-income countries in 2020. Spending on health is expected to rise to $1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied. Interpretation Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
|
|
| 2. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
-
Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
|
|
| 3. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(författare)
-
- 2020
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
|
|
| 4. |
|
|
| 5. |
- Anzt, Hartwig, et al.
(författare)
-
An environment for sustainable research software in Germany and beyond: current state, open challenges, and call for action
- 2020
-
Ingår i: F1000 Research. - : F1000 Research Ltd. - 2046-1402. ; 9
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Research software has become a central asset in academic research. It optimizes existing and enables new research methods, implements and embeds research knowledge, and constitutes an essential research product in itself. Research software must be sustainable in order to understand, replicate, reproduce, and build upon existing research or conduct new research effectively. In other words, software must be available, discoverable, usable, and adaptable to new needs, both now and in the future. Research software therefore requires an environment that supports sustainability. Hence, a change is needed in the way research software development and maintenance are currently motivated, incentivized, funded, structurally and infrastructurally supported, and legally treated. Failing to do so will threaten the quality and validity of research. In this paper, we identify challenges for research software sustainability in Germany and beyond, in terms of motivation, selection, research software engineering personnel, funding, infrastructure, and legal aspects. Besides researchers, we specifically address political and academic decision-makers to increase awareness of the importance and needs of sustainable research software practices. In particular, we recommend strategies and measures to create an environment for sustainable research software, with the ultimate goal to ensure that software-driven research is valid, reproducible and sustainable, and that software is recognized as a first class citizen in research. This paper is the outcome of two workshops run in Germany in 2019, at deRSE19 - the first International Conference of Research Software Engineers in Germany - and a dedicated DFG-supported follow-up workshop in Berlin.
|
|
| 6. |
- Cardoso Pereira, Cássio, et al.
(författare)
-
Subtle structures with not-so-subtle functions : A data set of arthropod constructs and their host plants
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Ecology. - : Wiley. - 0012-9658 .- 1939-9170. ; 103:4
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The construction of shelters on plants by arthropods might influence other organisms via changes in colonization, community richness, species composition, and functionality. Arthropods, including beetles, caterpillars, sawflies, spiders, and wasps often interact with host plants via the construction of shelters, building a variety of structures such as leaf ties, tents, rolls, and bags; leaf and stem galls, and hollowed out stems. Such constructs might have both an adaptive value in terms of protection (i.e., serve as shelters) but may also exert a strong influence on terrestrial community diversity in the engineered and neighboring hosts via colonization by secondary occupants. Although different traits of the host plant (e.g., physical, chemical, and architectural features) may affect the potential for ecosystem engineering by insects, such effects have been, to a certain degree, overlooked. Further analyses of how plant traits affect the occurrence of shelters may therefore enrich our understanding of the organizing principles of plant-based communities. This data set includes more than 1000 unique records of ecosystem engineering by arthropods, in the form of structures built on plants. All records have been published in the literature, and span both natural structures (91% of the records) and structures artificially created by researchers (9% of the records). The data were gathered between 1932 and 2021, across more than 50 countries and several ecosystems, ranging from polar to tropical zones. In addition to data on host plants and engineers, we aggregated data on the type of constructs and the identity of inquilines using these structures. This data set highlights the importance of these subtle structures for the organization of terrestrial arthropod communities, enabling hypotheses testing in ecological studies addressing ecosystem engineering and facilitation mediated by constructs. There are no copyright restrictions and please cite this paper when using the data in publications.
|
|
| 7. |
- Huber, Birgit, et al.
(författare)
-
Ochrobactrum pituitosum sp. nov., isolated from an industrial environment.
- 2010
-
Ingår i: International journal of systematic and evolutionary microbiology. - : Microbiology Society. - 1466-5026 .- 1466-5034. ; 60:Pt 2, s. 321-6
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Strain CCUG 50899, a Gram-negative, rod-shaped, non-spore-forming, motile bacterium isolated from industrial environment in Sweden and tentatively assigned to the species Ochrobactrum anthropi, was studied in order to clarify its taxonomic status. 16S rRNA gene sequence similarities placed the strain in the genus Ochrobactrum, sharing highest similarity with the type strains of Ochrobactrum rhizosphaerae (99.3 %), Ochrobactrum thiophenivorans (98.7 %), Ochrobactrum pseudogrignonense (98.6 %) and Ochrobactrum grignonense (98.5 %). The fatty acid profile of [O. anthropi] CCUG 50899 (major fatty acids C(18 : 1)omega7c and C(19 : 0) cyclo omega8c and presence of C(18 : 1) 2-OH), the polar lipid profile (diphosphatidylglycerol, phosphatidylglycerol, phosphatidylmonomethylethanolamine, phosphatidylethanolamine, two unknown aminolipids and an unknown phospholipid), the presence of the quinone system ubiquinone Q-10 and a polyamine pattern with the major compounds putrescine and spermidine and moderate amounts of sym-homospermidine supported its affiliation to the genus Ochrobactrum. DNA-DNA reassociation experiments with the type strains of its closest relatives O. rhizosphaerae, O. pseudogrignonense, O. thiophenivorans and O. grignonense demonstrated that [O. anthropi] CCUG 50899 should be placed in a novel species, which is distinguishable from related species by a set of biochemical traits. Based on these data, reclassification of [O. anthropi] CCUG 50899 as the type strain of a novel species appears to be justified. Hence, we describe a novel species to accommodate this strain, for which we propose the name Ochrobactrum pituitosum sp. nov. The type strain is CCUG 50899(T) (=DSM 22207(T)).
|
|
| 8. |
- Joffrin, E., et al.
(författare)
-
Overview of the JET preparation for deuterium-tritium operation with the ITER like-wall
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Nuclear Fusion. - : IOP Publishing. - 1741-4326 .- 0029-5515. ; 59:11
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- For the past several years, the JET scientific programme (Pamela et al 2007 Fusion Eng. Des. 82 590) has been engaged in a multi-campaign effort, including experiments in D, H and T, leading up to 2020 and the first experiments with 50%/50% D-T mixtures since 1997 and the first ever D-T plasmas with the ITER mix of plasma-facing component materials. For this purpose, a concerted physics and technology programme was launched with a view to prepare the D-T campaign (DTE2). This paper addresses the key elements developed by the JET programme directly contributing to the D-T preparation. This intense preparation includes the review of the physics basis for the D-T operational scenarios, including the fusion power predictions through first principle and integrated modelling, and the impact of isotopes in the operation and physics of D-T plasmas (thermal and particle transport, high confinement mode (H-mode) access, Be and W erosion, fuel recovery, etc). This effort also requires improving several aspects of plasma operation for DTE2, such as real time control schemes, heat load control, disruption avoidance and a mitigation system (including the installation of a new shattered pellet injector), novel ion cyclotron resonance heating schemes (such as the three-ions scheme), new diagnostics (neutron camera and spectrometer, active Alfven eigenmode antennas, neutral gauges, radiation hard imaging systems...) and the calibration of the JET neutron diagnostics at 14 MeV for accurate fusion power measurement. The active preparation of JET for the 2020 D-T campaign provides an incomparable source of information and a basis for the future D-T operation of ITER, and it is also foreseen that a large number of key physics issues will be addressed in support of burning plasmas.
|
|
| 9. |
|
|
| 10. |
- Kämpfer, Peter, et al.
(författare)
-
Proposal of Thorsellia kenyensis sp. nov. and Thorsellia kandunguensis sp. nov., isolated from the larvae of Anopheles arabiensis as members of the family Thorselliaceae fam. nov.
- 2015
-
Ingår i: International Journal of Systematic and Evolutionary Microbiology. - : Microbiology Society. - 1466-5026 .- 1466-5034. ; 65, s. 444-451
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Two Gram-negative, rod-shaped strains, T2.1T and W5.1.1T, isolated from larvae of the mosquito Anopheles arabiensis, were investigated using a polyphasic approach. On the basis of 16S rRNA gene sequence similarity studies, strains T2.1T and W5.1.1T were shown to belong to the genus Thorsellia, both showing 97.8 % similarity to the type strain of Thorsellia anophelis, with 98.1 % similarity to each other. Chemotaxonomic data supported the allocation of the strains to the genus Thorsellia: their major fatty acids were C18 : 1ω7c, C16 : 0 and C14 : 0 and they harboured a ubiquinone Q-8 quinone system and a polyamine pattern with the major compound 1,3-diaminopropane. Qualitative and quantitative differences in their polar lipid profiles distinguished strains T2.1T and W5.1.1T from each other and from T. anophelis. Average nucleotide identity (ANI), DNA–DNA hybridization, multilocus sequence analysis (MLSA) as well as physiological and biochemical tests allowed T2.1T and W5.1.1T to be distinguished both genotypically and phenotypically from each other and from the type strain of T. anophelis. Thus, we propose that these isolates represent two novel species of the genus Thorsellia, named Thorsellia kenyensis sp. nov. (type strain T2.1T = CCM 8545T = LMG 28483T = CIP 110829T) and Thorsellia kandunguensis sp. nov. (type strain W5.1.1T = LMG 28213T = CIP 110794T). Furthermore, phylogenetic analysis based on nearly full-length 16S rRNA gene sequences showed that the genus Thorsellia forms a separate branch, distinct from the families Enterobacteriaceae, Pasteurellaceae and Orbaceae. As a consequence, a new family Thorselliaceae fam. nov. is proposed. An emended description of Thorsellia anophelis is also provided.
|
|
| 11. |
- Ling, Qiu, et al.
(författare)
-
Is biodiversity attractive?-On-site perception of recreational and biodiversity values in urban green space
- 2013
-
Ingår i: Landscape and Urban Planning. - : Elsevier BV. - 0169-2046 .- 1872-6062. ; 119, s. 136-146
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study investigated whether preferences and biodiversity are compatible in an urban green space setting and whether people actually recognise and appreciate ecologically rich environments when exposed to these as part of a recreational visit. Data were collected through an on-site visitor-employed photography (VEP) study employing both lay people and ecology experts. Photos were taken by the participants during a walk along a 1.6 km trail through a recreational park with clear habitat variation. Half of the lay people and half of the experts each took five photos of features reflecting high preference and five reflecting low preference. The remaining half each took five photos of features they perceived to represent high species richness and five representing low species richness. Photos and written comments were then compared against an assessment of biodiversity values of the different habitats experienced along the trail. The results indicated that people can correctly perceive differences in biodiversity between urban green space habitat types. High biodiversity did not, however, relate positively to preference as half-open park areas were preferred to areas of more complex vegetation. Nevertheless, negative preferences for these richer habitat types were mostly related to the presence or execution of human interventions. The VEP method revealed on-site perception and preference to be highly context-specific, mainly triggered by specific features rather than the overall scenery and character of the setting. Differences in attitude between experts and lay people suggested that ecological knowledge could have a positive influence on preference for certain aspects of biodiversity. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
|
|
| 12. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
-
Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
|
|
| 13. |
|
|
| 14. |
|
|
| 15. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
-
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
|
|
| 16. |
- Romero, Gustavo Q., et al.
(författare)
-
Climate variability and aridity modulate the role of leaf shelters for arthropods : A global experiment
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 28:11, s. 3694-3710
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Current climate change is disrupting biotic interactions and eroding biodiversity worldwide. However, species sensitive to aridity, high temperatures, and climate variability might find shelter in microclimatic refuges, such as leaf rolls built by arthropods. To explore how the importance of leaf shelters for terrestrial arthropods changes with latitude, elevation, and climate, we conducted a distributed experiment comparing arthropods in leaf rolls versus control leaves across 52 sites along an 11,790 km latitudinal gradient. We then probed the impact of short- versus long-term climatic impacts on roll use, by comparing the relative impact of conditions during the experiment versus average, baseline conditions at the site. Leaf shelters supported larger organisms and higher arthropod biomass and species diversity than non-rolled control leaves. However, the magnitude of the leaf rolls' effect differed between long- and short-term climate conditions, metrics (species richness, biomass, and body size), and trophic groups (predators vs. herbivores). The effect of leaf rolls on predator richness was influenced only by baseline climate, increasing in magnitude in regions experiencing increased long-term aridity, regardless of latitude, elevation, and weather during the experiment. This suggests that shelter use by predators may be innate, and thus, driven by natural selection. In contrast, the effect of leaf rolls on predator biomass and predator body size decreased with increasing temperature, and increased with increasing precipitation, respectively, during the experiment. The magnitude of shelter usage by herbivores increased with the abundance of predators and decreased with increasing temperature during the experiment. Taken together, these results highlight that leaf roll use may have both proximal and ultimate causes. Projected increases in climate variability and aridity are, therefore, likely to increase the importance of biotic refugia in mitigating the effects of climate change on species persistence.
|
|
| 17. |
|
|
| 18. |
- Wörman, Anders, et al.
(författare)
-
Virtual energy storage gain resulting from the spatio-temporal coordination of hydropower over Europe
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Applied Energy. - : Elsevier. - 0306-2619 .- 1872-9118. ; 272
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The viability of a renewable electricity system depends on a relatively small share of hydropower storage resources to regulate climate variations and the spatially uneven distribution of renewable energy. By spatio-temporal coordination of hydropower production over larger regions, the energy storage demand will be reduced and contribute to a "virtual" energy storage gain that in Europe was found to be almost twice the actual energy storage capacity of hydropower reservoirs. In an attempt to quantify this gain, hydropower availability was simulated for most parts of the European continent for a 35-year period based on historical hydrometeorological data. The most significant benefits from spatio-temporal management arise at distances between 1200 and 3000 km, i.e., on the continental scale, which can have implications for a future renewable energy system at large. Furthermore, we discuss a condition termed "energy-domain-specific drought", which is a risk that can be reduced by the spatio-temporal management of power production. Virtual energy storage gain is not explicitly considered in the management models of hydropower production systems but could in principle complement existing management incentives.
|
|
