| 1. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 2. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 3. |
- Vos, Theo, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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| 4. |
- Chen, Kaixuan, et al.
(författare)
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In situ observations of crack propagation in as-cast Cu-1.5Fe-0.5Co (wt%) alloy
- 2017
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Ingår i: Materials Science & Engineering. - : Elsevier. - 0921-5093 .- 1873-4936. ; 706, s. 211-216
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- As-cast Cu-1.5Fe-0.5Co (wt%) alloy displays both high tensile strength of 307 MPa and elongation of 33%. In situ transmission electron microscopy was used to investigate crack propagation in the alloy, to analyze the origin of the good properties. At different deformation stages in thin Cu foils, the interactions of a propagating crack with iron-rich nanoparticles and growth twins are investigated. Crack-bridging processes via near-tip twinned bridges were identified. The multiple deformation mechanisms act synergistically to contribute to high strength and high ductility in the alloy.
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| 5. |
- Chen, Shiwei, et al.
(författare)
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A Discrete Event Simulation-Based Analysis of Precast Concrete Supply Chain Strategies Considering Suppliers’ Production and Transportation Capabilities
- 2019
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Ingår i: ICCREM 2019. - Reston, VA : American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE). ; , s. 12-24
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The production and transportation capabilities of a precast concrete (PC) component supplier have great impact on the construction of a PC building project. In China, the production and transportation capabilities of different PC suppliers can vary greatly, which will influence contractors’ selection of PC supply chain strategies. However, previous studies often considered the capabilities of PC suppliers to be ideal and failed to compare different PC supply chain strategies under different levels of suppliers capabilities. This study collects detailed data from a PC building project and uses discrete event simulation (DES) to compare different supply chain strategies under different production and transportation capability levels of PC suppliers. Construction duration, construction cost, and greenhouse gas emissions are selected as indicators to compare three different supply chain strategies: just-in-time, on-site storage, and off-site storage. The strengths and weaknesses of each strategy under different capabilities of PC suppliers are found. The results provides guidance for contractors in selecting supply chain strategies when considering PC suppliers’ production and transportation capabilities.
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| 6. |
- Pan, Shiwei, et al.
(författare)
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In-Situ Nanoparticles : A New Strengthening Method for Metallic Structural Material
- 2018
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Ingår i: Applied Sciences. - : MDPI. - 2076-3417. ; 8:12
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Over the past several years, coherent interface strengthening was proposed and has since drawn much attention. Unfortunately, many fabrication techniques are restricted to very small size. Recently, a brand new method of in-situ nanoparticle strengthening was systematically investigated, which was proved to be an efficacious way to optimize microstructure and improve mechanical property by utilizing uniformly dispersed nanoparticles. In this review, we summarized recent related advances in investigated steels and Cu alloys, including details of preparation technique and characterization of in-situ nanoparticles. In-situ nanoparticles formed in the melt possess a coherent/semi-coherent relationship with the matrix, which has a similar effect of coherent interface strengthening. In this case, bulk metallic structural materials with dispersed nanoparticles in the matrix can be fabricated through conventional casting process. The effects of in-situ nanoparticles on grain refinement, inhibiting segregation, optimizing inclusions and strengthening are also deeply discussed, which is beneficial for obtaining comprehensive mechanical response. Consequently, it is expected that in-situ nanoparticle strengthening method will become a potential future direction in industrial mass production.
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| 7. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
- 2016
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Ingår i: The lancet. HIV. - : Elsevier. - 2352-3018. ; 3:8, s. e361-e387
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.
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| 8. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 9. |
- Chen, Shiwei, et al.
(författare)
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A Simulation-Based Optimisation for Contractors in Precast Concrete Projects
- 2019
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- PurposeThis paper aims to provide decision support for precast concrete contractors about both precastconcrete supply chain strategies and construction configurations.Design/Methodology/ApproachThis paper proposes a simulation-based optimisation for supplychain and construction (SOSC) during the planning phase of PC building projects. The discrete eventsimulation is used to capture the characteristics of supply chain and construction processes, and calculate construction objectives under different plans. Particle swarm optimisation is combined with simulation tofind optimal supply chain strategies and construction configurations.FindingsThe efficiency of SOSC is compared with the parametric simulation approach. Over 70 per centof time and effort used to simulate and compare alternative plans is saved owing to SOSC.Research Limitations/ImplicationsBuilding simulation model costs a lot of time and effort. The data requirement of the proposed method is high.Practical ImplicationsThe proposed SOSC approach can provide decision support for PC contractorsby optimising supply chain strategies and construction configurations.Originality/ValueThis paper has two contributions: one is in providing a decision support tool SOSC tooptimise both supply chain strategies and construction configurations, while the other is in building aprototype of SOSC and testing it in a case study.
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| 10. |
- Chen, Shiwei, et al.
(författare)
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Concrete Construction : How to Explore Environmental and Economic Sustainability in Cold Climates
- 2020
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Ingår i: Sustainability. - : MDPI. - 2071-1050. ; 12:9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In many cold regions around the world, such as northern China and the Nordic countries,on‐site concrete is often cured in cold weather conditions. To protect the concrete from freezing or excessively long maturation during the hardening process, contractors use curing measures. Different types of curing measures have different effects on construction duration, cost, and greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, to maximize their sustainability and financial benefits, contractors need to select the appropriate curing measures against different weather conditions. However, there is still a lack of efficient decision support tools for selecting the optimal curing measures, considering the temperature conditions and effects on construction performance. Therefore, the aim of this study was to develop a Modeling‐Automation‐Decision Support (MADS) framework and tool to help contractors select curing measures to optimize performance in terms of duration, cost, and CO2 emissions under prevailing temperatures. The developed framework combines a concrete maturity analysis (CMA) tool, a discrete event simulation (DES), and a decision support module to select the best curing measures. The CMA tool calculates the duration of concrete curing needed to reach the required strength, based on the chosen curing measures and anticipated weather conditions. The DES simulates all construction activities to provide input for the CMA and uses the CMA results to evaluate construction performance. To analyze the effectiveness of the proposed framework, a software prototype was developed and tested on a case study in Sweden. The results show that the developed framework can efficiently propose solutions that significantlyreduce curing duration and CO2 emissions.
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| 11. |
- Chen, Shiwei, et al.
(författare)
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Research on Influencing Factors and Control Measures of Construction Cost Overrun in China's Expressway Projects
- 2023
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Ingår i: International Journal of Fuzzy System Applications. - : IGI Global. - 2156-177X .- 2156-1761. ; 12:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In China, the expressways have been built a lot over the past decade. The construction of the expressway suffers from usual cost overrun. There are many factors of different stakeholders influencing the construction cost of expressways, and it is difficult to control all of them. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the key factors causing expressway construction cost overrun and take corresponding cost control measures. In this article, decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL), interpretative structural modeling method (ISM) and system dynamics (SD) are integrated as DEMATEL-ISM-SD method to identify the key driving factors of expressway construction cost overrun and simulate the interactions of these factors to find the cost control measures. A case in China has been selected as an example to demonstrate how to use the proposed method. As a result, six key factors from different stakeholders are found. Then, six corresponding measures are put forward. This study can provide guidance for expressway construction cost control.
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| 12. |
- Feng, Kailun, 1991-, et al.
(författare)
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A predictive environmental assessment method for construction operations : Application to a Northeast China case study
- 2018
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Ingår i: Sustainability. - : MDPI. - 2071-1050. ; 10:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Construction accounts for a considerable number of environmental impacts, especially in countries with rapid urbanization. A predictive environmental assessment method enables a comparison of alternatives in construction operations to mitigate these environmental impacts. Process-based life cycle assessment (pLCA), which is the most widely applied environmental assessment method, requires lots of detailed process information to evaluate. However, a construction project usually operates in uncertain and dynamic project environments, and capturing such process information represents a critical challenge for pLCA. Discrete event simulation (DES) provides an opportunity to include uncertainty and capture the dynamic environments of construction operations. This study proposes a predictive assessment method that integrates DES and pLCA (DES-pLCA) to evaluate the environmental impact of on-site construction operations and supply chains. The DES feeds pLCA with process information that considers the uncertain and dynamic environments of construction, while pLCA guides the comprehensive procedure of environmental assessment. A DES-pLCA prototype was developed and implemented in a case study of an 18-storey building in Northeast China. The results showed that the biggest impact variations on the global warming potential (GWP), acidification potential (AP), eutrophication (EP), photochemical ozone creation potential (POCP), abiotic depletion potential (ADP), and human toxicity potential (HTP) were 5.1%, 4.1%, 4.1%, 4.7%, 0.3%, and 5.9%, respectively, due to uncertain and dynamic factors. Based on the proposed method, an average impact reduction can be achieved for these six indictors of 2.5%, 21.7%, 8.2%, 4.8%, 32.5%, and 0.9%, respectively. The method also revealed that the material wastage rate of formwork installation was the most crucial managing factor that influences global warming performance. The method can support contractors in the development and management of environmentally friendly construction operations that consider the effects of uncertainty and dynamics.
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| 13. |
- Feng, Kailun, 1991-, et al.
(författare)
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An Integrated Environment–Cost–Time Optimisation Method for Construction Contractors Considering Global Warming
- 2018
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Ingår i: Sustainability. - : MDPI. - 2071-1050. ; 10:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Construction contractors play a vital role in reducing the environmental impacts during the construction phase. To mitigate these impacts, contractors need to develop environmentally friendly plans that have optimal equipment, materials and labour configurations. However, construction plans with optimal environment may negatively affect the project cost and duration, resulting in dilemma for contractors on adopting low impacts plans. Moreover, the enumeration method that is usually used needs to assess and compare the performances of a great deal of scenarios, which seems to be time consuming for complicated projects with numerous scenarios. This study therefore developed an integrated method to efficiently provide contractors with plans having optimal environment-cost-time performances. Discrete-event simulation (DES) and particle swarm optimisation algorithms (PSO) are integrated through an iterative loop, which remarkably reduces the efforts on optimal scenarios searching. In the integrated method, the simulation module can model the construction equipment and materials consumption; the assessment module can evaluate multi-objective performances; and the optimisation module fast converges on optimal solutions. A prototype is developed and implemented in a hotel building construction. Results show that the proposed method greatly reduced the times of simulation compared with enumeration method. It provides the contractor with a trade-off solution that can average reduce 26.9% of environmental impact, 19.7% of construction cost, and 10.2% of project duration. The method provides contractors with an efficient and practical decision support tool for environmentally friendly planning.
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| 14. |
- Feng, Kailun, 1991-, et al.
(författare)
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Embedding Ensemble Learning into Construction Optimisation : A Computational Reduction Approach
- 2020
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Simulation-based optimisation (SO), which combines simulation and optimisation technologies, is a popular approach for construction planning optimisation. However, in the framework of SO, the simulation is continuously invoked during the optimisation trajectory, which increases the computing loads to levels that are unrealistic to support the real-time construction decision. This study proposes ensemble learning embedded simulation optimisation (ESO) as an alternative approach for construction optimisation. The ensemble learning (EL) algorithm modifies the SO framework through establishing a connection between the simulation and optimisation technologies. This approach reduces the computing loads associated with the conventional SO framework by accurately learning from simulations and providing efficient fitness evaluations for optimisation. A large-scale project application shows that the proposed approach was able to reduce the computing loads of SO by approximately 90% yet still provide comparable optimisation quality. The proposed method is an alternative approach to SO that can be run on standard computing platforms and supports nearly real-time optimisation decisions.
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| 15. |
- Feng, Kailun, 1991-, et al.
(författare)
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Embedding ensemble learning into simulation-based optimisation : a learning-based optimisation approach for construction planning
- 2023
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Ingår i: Engineering Construction and Architectural Management. - : Emerald Group Publishing Limited. - 0969-9988 .- 1365-232X. ; 30:1, s. 259-295
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose - Simulation-based optimisation (SO) is a popular optimisation approach for building and civil engineering construction planning. However, in the framework of SO, the simulation is continuously invoked during the optimisation trajectory, which increases the computational loads to levels unrealistic for timely construction decisions. Modification on the optimisation settings such as reducing searching ability is a popular method to address this challenge, but the quality measurement of the obtained optimal decisions, also termed as optimisation quality, is also reduced by this setting. Therefore, this study aims to develop an optimisation approach for construction planning that reduces the high computational loads of SO and provides reliable optimisation quality simultaneously.Design/methodology/approach - This study proposes the optimisation approach by modifying the SO framework through establishing an embedded connection between simulation and optimisation technologies. This approach reduces the computational loads and ensures the optimisation quality associated with the conventional SO approach by accurately learning the knowledge from construction simulations using embedded ensemble learning algorithms, which automatically provides efficient and reliable fitness evaluations for optimisation iterations.Findings - A large-scale project application shows that the proposed approach was able to reduce computational loads of SO by approximately 90%. Meanwhile, the proposed approach outperformed SO in terms of optimisation quality when the optimisation has limited searching ability.Originality/value - The core contribution of this research is to provide an innovative method that improves efficiency and ensures effectiveness, simultaneously, of the well-known SO approach in construction applications. The proposed method is an alternative approach to SO that can run on standard computing platforms and support nearly real-time construction on-site decision-making.
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| 16. |
- Feng, Kailun, et al.
(författare)
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Machine learning based construction simulation and optimization
- 2018
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the 2018 Winter Simulation Conference. - : IEEE. - 9781538665725 ; , s. 2025-2036
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Building construction comprises interaction and interdependence among processes. Discrete-event simulation (DES) is widely applied to model these processes interaction. To find optimal construction plans, optimization technique is usually integrated with DES. However, present simulation-optimization integrated method directly invokes simulation model within optimization algorithms, which is found significantly computationally expensive. This study proposes a machine learning based construction simulation and optimization integrated method. After trained by DES, the machine learning model accelerates simulation-optimization integration by nearly real-time providing fitness evaluation within optimization. This method was implemented into a real construction project for construction time-cost-environment optimization. Results show that proposed machine learning based method significantly reduce computing time compared with original simulation-optimization integration. Less than 1% of construction cost and time improvement were miss, while greenhouse gas emissions obtained same performance. The new method could be a more effective DES and optimization integration approach for practical engineering application.
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| 17. |
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| 18. |
- Griswold, Max G., et al.
(författare)
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Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
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| 19. |
- Guirguis, Emilia, et al.
(författare)
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A Role for Phosphodiesterase 3B in Acquisition of Brown Fat Characteristics by White Adipose Tissue in Male Mice.
- 2013
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Ingår i: Endocrinology. - : The Endocrine Society. - 0013-7227 .- 1945-7170. ; 154:9, s. 3152-3167
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Obesity is linked to various diseases, including insulin resistance, diabetes, and cardiovascular disorders. The idea of inducing white adipose tissue (WAT) to assume characteristics of brown adipose tissue (BAT), and thus gearing it to fat-burning instead of storage, is receiving serious consideration as potential treatment for obesity and related disorders. Phosphodiesterase 3B (PDE3B) links insulin- and cAMP-signaling networks in tissues associated with energy metabolism, including WAT. We utilized C57BL/6 PDE3B knockout (KO) mice to elucidate mechanisms involved in the formation of BAT in epididymal WAT (EWAT) depots. Examination of gene expression profiles in PDE3B KO EWAT revealed increased expression of several genes that block white and promote brown adipogenesis, such as C-terminal binding protein (Ctbp), bone morphogenetic protein 7 (Bmp7) and PR domain containing 16 (Prdm16), but a clear BAT-like phenotype was not completely induced. However, acute treatment of PDE3B KO mice with the β3-adrenergic agonist, CL316243, markedly increased expression of cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2), which catalyzes prostaglandin synthesis and is thought to be important in formation of BAT in WAT, and of elongation of very long chain fatty acids 3 (Elovl3), which is linked to BAT recruitment upon cold exposure, causing a clear shift toward fat-burning and induction of BAT in KO EWAT. These data provide insight into mechanisms of BAT formation in mouse EWAT, suggesting that, in C57BL/6 background, an increase in cAMP, caused by ablation of PDE3B and administration of CL316243, may promote differentiation of prostaglandin-responsive progenitor cells in the EWAT stromal vascular fraction into functional brown adipocytes.
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| 20. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 21. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 22. |
- Reitsma, Marissa B., et al.
(författare)
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Smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2017
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 389:10082, s. 1885-1906
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death and disability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained political commitment. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) offers a robust platform through which global, regional, and national progress toward achieving smoking-related targets can be assessed. Methods We synthesised 2818 data sources with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and produced estimates of daily smoking prevalence by sex, age group, and year for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We analysed 38 risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality and disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We then performed a cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. We also did a decomposition analysis, in which we parsed out changes in all-cause smoking-attributable DALYs due to changes in population growth, population ageing, smoking prevalence, and risk-deleted DALY rates. Finally, we explored results by level of development using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Worldwide, the age-standardised prevalence of daily smoking was 25.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24.2-25.7) for men and 5.4% (5.1-5.7) for women, representing 28.4% (25.8-31.1) and 34.4% (29.4-38.6) reductions, respectively, since 1990. A greater percentage of countries and territories achieved significant annualised rates of decline in smoking prevalence from 1990 to 2005 than in between 2005 and 2015; however, only four countries had significant annualised increases in smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015 (Congo [Brazzaville] and Azerbaijan for men and Kuwait and Timor-Leste for women). In 2015, 11.5% of global deaths (6.4 million [95% UI 5.7-7.0 million]) were attributable to smoking worldwide, of which 52.2% took place in four countries (China, India, the USA, and Russia). Smoking was ranked among the five leading risk factors by DALYs in 109 countries and territories in 2015, rising from 88 geographies in 1990. In terms of birth cohorts, male smoking prevalence followed similar age patterns across levels of SDI, whereas much more heterogeneity was found in age patterns for female smokers by level of development. While smoking prevalence and risk-deleted DALY rates mostly decreased by sex and SDI quintile, population growth, population ageing, or a combination of both, drove rises in overall smoking-attributable DALYs in low-SDI to middle-SDI geographies between 2005 and 2015. Interpretation The pace of progress in reducing smoking prevalence has been heterogeneous across geographies, development status, and sex, and as highlighted by more recent trends, maintaining past rates of decline should not be taken for granted, especially in women and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. Beyond the effect of the tobacco industry and societal mores, a crucial challenge facing tobacco control initiatives is that demographic forces are poised to heighten smoking's global toll, unless progress in preventing initiation and promoting cessation can be substantially accelerated. Greater success in tobacco control is possible but requires effective, comprehensive, and adequately implemented and enforced policies, which might in turn require global and national levels of political commitment beyond what has been achieved during the past 25 years.
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| 23. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 24. |
- Wang, Ziming, 1992, et al.
(författare)
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Exploring Intended Functions of Indoor Flying Robots Interacting With Humans in Proximity
- 2024
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Ingår i: Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems - Proceedings.
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- What will people experience when drones become common in home environments? How will their functions and distances impact human experiences? To explore the potential usage of indoor drones, we conducted a mixed-methods study (N=60) on the reported perceptions of a small flying robot. We employed a factorial experimental design, involving four intended drone functions (camera, education, pet, unknown) at two distances (near, far). Our findings suggest that intended functions significantly influence participants' perceptions. Among the functions examined, participants found the camera useful but annoying, and the pet useless but pleasant. The education emerged as the most favored function, while the unknown function was the least preferred one. Based on these findings, we discuss implications for designing positive interactions between humans and indoor drones, considering aspects such as context, transparency, privacy, technical factors, and personalization.
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| 25. |
- Yang, Hanmin, 1992-, et al.
(författare)
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Carbon-negative valorization of biomass waste into affordable green hydrogen and battery anodes
- 2023
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Ingår i: International journal of hydrogen energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0360-3199 .- 1879-3487.
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The global Sustainable Development Goals highlight the necessity for affordable and clean energy, designated as SDG7. A sustainable and feasible biorefinery concept is proposed for the carbon-negative utilization of biomass waste for affordable H2 and battery anode material production. Specifically, an innovative tandem biocarbon + NiAlO + biocarbon catalyst strategy is constructed to realize a complete reforming of biomass pyro-vapors into H2+CO (as a mixture). The solid residues from pyrolysis are upgraded into high-quality hard carbon (HCs), demonstrating potential as sodium ion battery (SIBs) anodes. The product, HC-1600-6h, exhibited great electrochemical performance when employed as (SIBs) anodes (full cell: 263 Wh/kg with ICE of 89%). Ultimately, a comprehensive process is designed, simulated, and evaluated. The process yields 75 kg H2, 169 kg HCs, and 891 kg captured CO2 per ton of biomass achieving approx. 100% carbon and hydrogen utilization efficiencies. A life cycle assessment estimates a biomass valorization process with negative-emissions (−0.81 kg CO2/kg-biomass, reliant on Sweden wind electricity). A techno-economic assessment forecasts a notably profitable process capable of co-producing affordable H2 and hard carbon battery anodes. The payback period of the process is projected to fall within two years, assuming reference prices of 13.7 €/kg for HCs and 5 €/kg for H2. The process contributes to a novel business paradigm for sustainable and commercially viable biorefinery process, achieving carbon-negative valorization of biomass waste into affordable energy and materials.
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| 26. |
- Yang, Hanmin, 1992-, et al.
(författare)
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Syngas production from biomass pyrolysis followed by in-line biochar-catalytic reforming : the effect of space velocity, particle size, and morphology
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- A syngas production based on a biomass pyrolysis followed by an in-line catalytic reforming process is a promising method to help curb greenhouse gas emissions. The use of biochar as the reforming catalyst is economically and technologically attractive. A continuous pyrolysis combined with an in-line biochar-catalytic reforming of the pyrolysis vapor was investigated in a comprehensive system consisting of an auger reactor and a downstream fixed-bed rector. The effect of the weight hourly space velocity (WHSV), particle size and morphology of biochar, and the pressure drop of the biochar bed on the catalytic performance were discussed. The results indicated that a higher syngas yield with a higher H2+CO proportion was obtained when using a lower WHSV, due to a longer residence time. The highest syngas and H2 yields were obtained when using biochar with the smallest particles sizes (0.6-1 mm), i.e. the highest bed pressure drops. The use of biochar particles, which are more spherical and rounded, resulted in higher syngas yields, H2 +CO proportions, and H2 yields due to the enhanced heat and mass transfer favored by the rounded shape. Up to 12 mmol H2/g-biomass was obtained, corresponding to a dry gas yield of 0.68 Nm3/kg , containing 39 vol. % H2 and 27 vol. % CO. The use of biochar as a reforming catalyst showed a relatively stable catalytic performance after during a 100-minutes of running the experimentexperimental run-time.
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