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- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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- Petersen, M. A., et al.
(författare)
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The EORTC CAT Core-The computer adaptive version of the EORTC QLQ-C30 questionnaire
- 2018
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Ingår i: European Journal of Cancer. - : Elsevier BV. - 0959-8049. ; 100, s. 8-16
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: To optimise measurement precision, relevance to patients and flexibility, patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) should ideally be adapted to the individual patient/study while retaining direct comparability of scores across patients/studies. This is achievable using item banks and computerised adaptive tests (CATs). The European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30 (QLQ-C30) is one of the most widely used PROMs in cancer research and clinical practice. Here we provide an overview of the research program to develop CAT versions of the QLQ-C30's 14 functional and symptom domains. Methods: The EORTC Quality of Life Group's strategy for developing CAT item banks consists of: literature search to identify potential candidate items; formulation of new items compatible with the QLQ-C30 item style; expert evaluations and patient interviews; field-testing and psychometric analyses, including factor analysis, item response theory calibration and simulation of measurement properties. In addition, software for setting up, running and scoring CAT has been developed. Results: Across eight rounds of data collections, 9782 patients were recruited from 12 countries for the field-testing. The four phases of development resulted in a total of 260 unique items across the 14 domains. Each item bank consists of 7-34 items. Psychometric evaluations indicated higher measurement precision and increased statistical power of the CAT measures compared to the QLQ-C30 scales. Using CAT, sample size requirements may be reduced by approximately 20-35% on average without loss of power. Conclusions: The EORTC CAT Core represents a more precise, powerful and flexible measurement system than the QLQ-C30. It is currently being validated in a large independent, international sample of cancer patients. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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- Singer, S., et al.
(författare)
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Methodological approach for determining the Minimal Important Difference and Minimal Important Change scores for the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Head and Neck Cancer Module (EORTC QLQ-HN43) exemplified by the Swallowing scale
- 2022
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Ingår i: Quality of Life Research. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0962-9343 .- 1573-2649. ; 31, s. 841-853
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose The aim of this study was to explore what methods should be used to determine the minimal important difference (MID) and minimal important change (MIC) in scores for the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Head and Neck Cancer Module, the EORTC QLQ-HN43. Methods In an international multi-centre study, patients with head and neck cancer completed the EORTC QLQ-HN43 before the onset of treatment (t1), three months after baseline (t2), and six months after baseline (t3). The methods explored for determining the MID were: (1) group comparisons based on performance status; (2) 0.5 and 0.3 standard deviation and standard error of the mean. The methods examined for the MIC were patients' subjective change ratings and receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curves, predictive modelling, standard deviation, and standard error of the mean. The EORTC QLQ-HN43 Swallowing scale was used to investigate these methods. Results From 28 hospitals in 18 countries, 503 patients participated. Correlations with the performance status were |r|< 0.4 in 17 out of 19 scales; hence, performance status was regarded as an unsuitable anchor. The ROC approach yielded an implausible MIC and was also discarded. The remaining approaches worked well and delivered MID values ranging from 10 to 14; the MIC for deterioration ranged from 8 to 16 and the MIC for improvement from - 3 to - 14. Conclusions For determining MIDs of the remaining scales of the EORTC QLQ-HN43, we will omit comparisons of groups based on the Karnofsky Performance Score. Other external anchors are needed instead. Distribution-based methods worked well and will be applied as a starting strategy for analyses. For the calculation of MICs, subjective change ratings, predictive modelling, and standard-deviation based approaches are suitable methods whereas ROC analyses seem to be inappropriate.
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- Dirven, L., et al.
(författare)
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Development and Psychometric Evaluation of an Item Bank for Computerized Adaptive Testing of the EORTC Insomnia Dimension in Cancer Patients (EORTC CAT-SL)
- 2021
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Ingår i: Applied Research in Quality of Life. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1871-2584 .- 1871-2576. ; 16:2, s. 827-844
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To further advance assessment of patient-reported outcomes, the European Organisation of Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) Quality of Life Group has developed computerized adaptive test (CAT) versions of all EORTC Quality of Life Core Questionnaire (QLQ-C30) scales/items. The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate an item bank for CAT measurement of insomnia (CAT-SL). In line with the EORTC guidelines, the developmental process comprised four phases: (I) defining the concept insomnia and literature search, (II) selection and formulation of new items, (III) pre-testing and (IV) field-testing, including psychometric analyses of the final item bank. In phase I, the literature search identified 155 items that were compatible with our conceptualisation of insomnia, including both quantity and quality of sleep. In phase II, following a multistep-approach, this number was reduced to 15 candidate items. Pre-testing of these items in cancer patients (phase III) resulted in an item list of 14 items, which were field-tested among 1094 patients in phase IV. Psychometric evaluations showed that eight items could be retained in a unidimensional model. The final item bank yielded greater measurement precision than the original QLQ-C30 insomnia item. It was estimated that administering two or more items from the insomnia item bank with CAT results in a saving in sample size between approximately 15–25%. The 8-item EORTC CAT-SL item bank facilitates precise and efficient measurement of insomnia as part of the EORTC CAT system of health-related quality life assessment in both clinical research and practice.
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- Hoffman, Lindsey M., et al.
(författare)
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Clinical, Radiologic, Pathologic, and Molecular Characteristics of Long-Term Survivors of Diffuse Intrinsic Pontine Glioma (DIPG) : A Collaborative Report From the International and European Society for Pediatric Oncology DIPG Registries
- 2018
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Ingår i: Journal of Clinical Oncology. - : AMER SOC CLINICAL ONCOLOGY. - 0732-183X .- 1527-7755. ; 36:19, s. 1963-1972
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- PurposeDiffuse intrinsic pontine glioma (DIPG) is a brainstem malignancy with a median survival of < 1 year. The International and European Society for Pediatric Oncology DIPG Registries collaborated to compare clinical, radiologic, and histomolecular characteristics between short-term survivors (STSs) and long-term survivors (LTSs).Materials and MethodsData abstracted from registry databases included patients from North America, Australia, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Italy, France, the United Kingdom, and Croatia.ResultsAmong 1,130 pediatric and young adults with radiographically confirmed DIPG, 122 (11%) were excluded. Of the 1,008 remaining patients, 101 (10%) were LTSs (survival 2 years). Median survival time was 11 months (interquartile range, 7.5 to 16 months), and 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-year survival rates were 42.3% (95% CI, 38.1% to 44.1%), 9.6% (95% CI, 7.8% to 11.3%), 4.3% (95% CI, 3.2% to 5.8%), 3.2% (95% CI, 2.4% to 4.6%), and 2.2% (95% CI, 1.4% to 3.4%), respectively. LTSs, compared with STSs, more commonly presented at age < 3 or > 10 years (11% v 3% and 33% v 23%, respectively; P < .001) and with longer symptom duration (P < .001). STSs, compared with LTSs, more commonly presented with cranial nerve palsy (83% v 73%, respectively; P = .008), ring enhancement (38% v 23%, respectively; P = .007), necrosis (42% v 26%, respectively; P = .009), and extrapontine extension (92% v 86%, respectively; P = .04). LTSs more commonly received systemic therapy at diagnosis (88% v 75% for STSs; P = .005). Biopsies and autopsies were performed in 299 patients (30%) and 77 patients (10%), respectively; 181 tumors (48%) were molecularly characterized. LTSs were more likely to harbor a HIST1H3B mutation (odds ratio, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.1 to 1.5; P = .002).ConclusionWe report clinical, radiologic, and molecular factors that correlate with survival in children and young adults with DIPG, which are important for risk stratification in future clinical trials.
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- Schuettpelz, Eric, et al.
(författare)
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A community-derived classification for extant lycophytes and ferns
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of Systematics and Evolution. - : Wiley. - 1674-4918 .- 1759-6831. ; 54:6, s. 563-603
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Phylogeny has long informed pteridophyte classification. As our ability to infer evolutionary trees has improved, classifications aimed at recognizing natural groups have become increasingly predictive and stable. Here, we provide a modern, comprehensive classification for lycophytes and ferns, down to the genus level, utilizing a community-based approach. We use monophyly as the primary criterion for the recognition of taxa, but also aim to preserve existing taxa and circumscriptions that are both widely accepted and consistent with our understanding of pteridophyte phylogeny. In total, this classification treats an estimated 11 916 species in 337 genera, 51 families, 14 orders, and two classes. This classification is not intended as the final word on lycophyte and fern taxonomy, but rather a summary statement of current hypotheses, derived from the best available data and shaped by those most familiar with the plants in question. We hope that it will serve as a resource for those wanting references to the recent literature on pteridophyte phylogeny and classification, a framework for guiding future investigations, and a stimulus to further discourse.
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| 17. |
- Xu, An, et al.
(författare)
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Rewired m6A epitranscriptomic networks link mutant p53 to neoplastic transformation
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Nature. - 2041-1723. ; 14:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- N6-methyladenosine (m6A), one of the most prevalent mRNA modifications in eukaryotes, plays a critical role in modulating both biological and pathological processes. However, it is unknown whether mutant p53 neomorphic oncogenic functions exploit dysregulation of m6A epitranscriptomic networks. Here, we investigate Li-Fraumeni syndrome (LFS)-associated neoplastic transformation driven by mutant p53 in iPSC-derived astrocytes, the cell-of-origin of gliomas. We find that mutant p53 but not wild-type (WT) p53 physically interacts with SVIL to recruit the H3K4me3 methyltransferase MLL1 to activate the expression of m6A reader YTHDF2, culminating in an oncogenic phenotype. Aberrant YTHDF2 upregulation markedly hampers expression of multiple m6A-marked tumor-suppressing transcripts, including CDKN2B and SPOCK2, and induces oncogenic reprogramming. Mutant p53 neoplastic behaviors are significantly impaired by genetic depletion of YTHDF2 or by pharmacological inhibition using MLL1 complex inhibitors. Our study reveals how mutant p53 hijacks epigenetic and epitranscriptomic machinery to initiate gliomagenesis and suggests potential treatment strategies for LFS gliomas.
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