| 1. |
- Christensen, Torben Røjle, et al.
(författare)
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Tracing the climate signal : mitigation of anthropogenic methane emissions can outweigh a large Arctic natural emission increase
- 2019
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Ingår i: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 9:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Natural methane emissions are noticeably influenced by warming of cold arctic ecosystems and permafrost. An evaluation specifically of Arctic natural methane emissions in relation to our ability to mitigate anthropogenic methane emissions is needed. Here we use empirical scenarios of increases in natural emissions together with maximum technically feasible reductions in anthropogenic emissions to evaluate their potential influence on future atmospheric methane concentrations and associated radiative forcing (RF). The largest amplification of natural emissions yields up to 42% higher atmospheric methane concentrations by the year 2100 compared with no change in natural emissions. The most likely scenarios are lower than this, while anthropogenic emission reductions may have a much greater yielding effect, with the potential of halving atmospheric methane concentrations by 2100 compared to when anthropogenic emissions continue to increase as in a business-as-usual case. In a broader perspective, it is shown that man-made emissions can be reduced sufficiently to limit methane-caused climate warming by 2100 even in the case of an uncontrolled natural Arctic methane emission feedback, but this requires a committed, global effort towards maximum feasible reductions.
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| 2. |
- Rysgaard, Søren, et al.
(författare)
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A mobile observatory powered by sun and wind for near real time measurements of atmospheric, glacial, terrestrial, limnic and coastal oceanic conditions in remote off-grid areas
- 2022
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Ingår i: HardwareX. - : Elsevier BV. - 2468-0672. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change is rapidly altering the Arctic environment. Although long-term environmental observations have been made at a few locations in the Arctic, the incomplete coverage from ground stations is a main limitation to observations in these remote areas. Here we present a wind and sun powered multi-purpose mobile observatory (ARC-MO) that enables near real time measurements of air, ice, land, rivers, and marine parameters in remote off-grid areas. Two test units were constructed and placed in Northeast Greenland where they have collected data from cabled and wireless instruments deployed in the environment since late summer 2021. The two units can communicate locally via WiFi (units placed 25 km apart) and transmit near-real time data globally over satellite. Data are streamed live and accessible from (https://gios.org). The cost of one mobile observatory unit is c. 304.000€. These test units demonstrate the possibility for integrative and automated environmental data collection in remote coastal areas and could serve as models for a proposed global observatory system.
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| 3. |
- Virkkala, Anna Maria, et al.
(författare)
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Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain : Regional patterns and uncertainties
- 2021
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 27:17, s. 4040-4059
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink-source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990–2015 from 148 terrestrial high-latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km2) across the high-latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE-focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE −46 and −29 g C m−2 yr−1, respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and −2 g C m−2 yr−1). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high-latitude region was on average an annual CO2 sink during 1990–2015, although uncertainty remains high.
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