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- Pantazis, N, et al.
(author)
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Determining the likely place of HIV acquisition for migrants in Europe combining subject-specific information and biomarkers data
- 2019
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In: Statistical methods in medical research. - : SAGE Publications. - 1477-0334 .- 0962-2802. ; 28:7, s. 1979-1997
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In most HIV-positive individuals, infection time is only known to lie between the time an individual started being at risk for HIV and diagnosis time. However, a more accurate estimate of infection time is very important in certain cases. For example, one of the objectives of the Advancing Migrant Access to Health Services in Europe (aMASE) study was to determine if HIV-positive migrants, diagnosed in Europe, were infected pre- or post-migration. We propose a method to derive subject-specific estimates of unknown infection times using information from HIV biomarkers’ measurements, demographic, clinical, and behavioral data. We assume that CD4 cell count (CD4) and HIV-RNA viral load trends after HIV infection follow a bivariate linear mixed model. Using post-diagnosis CD4 and viral load measurements and applying the Bayes’ rule, we derived the posterior distribution of the HIV infection time, whereas the prior distribution was informed by AIDS status at diagnosis and behavioral data. Parameters of the CD4–viral load and time-to-AIDS models were estimated using data from a large study of individuals with known HIV infection times (CASCADE). Simulations showed substantial predictive ability (e.g. 84% of the infections were correctly classified as pre- or post-migration). Application to the aMASE study ( n = 2009) showed that 47% of African migrants and 67% to 72% of migrants from other regions were most likely infected post-migration. Applying a Bayesian method based on bivariate modeling of CD4 and viral load, and subject-specific information, we found that the majority of HIV-positive migrants in aMASE were most likely infected after their migration to Europe.
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- Shepherd, L., et al.
(author)
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Infection-related and -unrelated malignancies, HIV and the aging population
- 2016
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In: HIV Medicine. - : Wiley. - 1464-2662 .- 1468-1293. ; 17:8, s. 590-600
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objectives: HIV-positive people have increased risk of infection-related malignancies (IRMs) and infection-unrelated malignancies (IURMs). The aim of the study was to determine the impact of aging on future IRM and IURM incidence. Methods: People enrolled in EuroSIDA and followed from the latest of the first visit or 1 January 2001 until the last visit or death were included in the study. Poisson regression was used to investigate the impact of aging on the incidence of IRMs and IURMs, adjusting for demographic, clinical and laboratory confounders. Linear exponential smoothing models forecasted future incidence. Results: A total of 15 648 people contributed 95 033 person-years of follow-up, of whom 610 developed 643 malignancies [IRMs: 388 (60%); IURMs: 255 (40%)]. After adjustment, a higher IRM incidence was associated with a lower CD4 count [adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR) CD4 count < 200 cells/μL: 3.77; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.59, 5.51; compared with ≥ 500 cells/μL], independent of age, while a CD4 count < 200 cells/μL was associated with IURMs in people aged < 50 years only (aIRR: 2.51; 95% CI 1.40–4.54). Smoking was associated with IURMs (aIRR: 1.75; 95% CI 1.23, 2.49) compared with never smokers in people aged ≥ 50 years only, and not with IRMs. The incidences of both IURMs and IRMs increased with older age. It was projected that the incidence of IRMs would decrease by 29% over a 5-year period from 3.1 (95% CI 1.5–5.9) per 1000 person-years in 2011, whereas the IURM incidence would increase by 44% from 4.1 (95% CI 2.2–7.2) per 1000 person-years over the same period. Conclusions: Demographic and HIV-related risk factors for IURMs (aging and smoking) and IRMs (immunodeficiency and ongoing viral replication) differ markedly and the contribution from IURMs relative to IRMs will continue to increase as a result of aging of the HIV-infected population, high smoking and lung cancer prevalence and a low prevalence of untreated HIV infection. These findings suggest the need for targeted preventive measures and evaluation of the cost−benefit of screening for IURMs in HIV-infected populations.
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- Borges, A. H., et al.
(author)
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Nonnucleoside Reverse-transcriptase Inhibitor- vs Ritonavir-boosted Protease Inhibitor-based Regimens for Initial Treatment of HIV Infection: A Systematic Review and Metaanalysis of Randomized Trials
- 2016
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In: Clinical Infectious Diseases. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1058-4838 .- 1537-6591. ; 63:2, s. 268-280
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background. Previous studies suggest that nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) cause faster virologic suppression, while ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitors (PI/r) recover more CD4 cells. However, individual trials have not been powered to compare clinical outcomes. Methods. We searched databases to identify randomized trials that compared NNRTI-vs PI/r-based initial therapy. A meta-analysis calculated risk ratios (RRs) or mean differences (MDs), as appropriate. Primary outcome was death or progression to AIDS. Secondary outcomes were death, progression to AIDS, and treatment discontinuation. We calculated RR of virologic suppression and MD for an increase in CD4 cells at week 48. Results. We included 29 trials with 9047 participants. Death or progression to AIDS occurred in 226 participants in the NNRTI arm and in 221 in the PI/r arm (RR, 1.03; 95% confidence interval, .87-1.22; 12 trials; n = 3825), death in 205 participants in the NNRTI arm vs 198 in the PI/r arm (1.04; 0.86-1.25; 22 trials; n = 8311), and progression to AIDS in 140 participants in the NNRTI arm vs 144 in the PI/r arm (1.00; 0.80-1.25; 13 trials; n = 4740). Overall treatment discontinuation (1.12; 0.93-1.35; 24 trials; n = 8249) and from toxicity (1.21; 0.87-1.68; 21 trials; n = 6195) were comparable, but discontinuation due to virologic failure was more common with NNRTI (1.58; 0.91-2.74; 17 trials; n = 5371). At week 48, there was no difference between NNRTI and PI/r in virologic suppression (RR, 1.03; 0.98-1.09) or CD4(+) recovery (MD, -4.7 cells; -14.2 to 4.8). Conclusions. We found no difference in clinical and viro-immunologic outcomes between NNRTI-and PI/r-based therapy.
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