| 1. |
- Kehoe, Laura, et al.
(författare)
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Make EU trade with Brazil sustainable
- 2019
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 364:6438, s. 341-
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 2. |
- Leclere, David, et al.
(författare)
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Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 585:7826, s. 551-556
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides(1,2). Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity(3); however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge(4). Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether-and how-humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity(5). We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042-2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34-50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats-such as climate change-must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that ambitious conservation efforts and food system transformation are central to an effective post-2020 biodiversity strategy. To promote the recovery of the currently declining global trends in terrestrial biodiversity, increases in both the extent of land under conservation management and the sustainability of the global food system from farm to fork are required.
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| 3. |
- Allanach, Benjamin C., et al.
(författare)
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Simple and statistically sound strategies for analysing physical theories
- 2022
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Ingår i: Reports on progress in physics (Print). - : Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP). - 0034-4885 .- 1361-6633. ; 85:5
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Physical theories that depend on many parameters or are tested against data from many different experiments pose unique challenges to statistical inference. Many models in particle physics, astrophysics and cosmology fall into one or both of these categories. These issues are often sidestepped with statistically unsound ad hoc methods, involving intersection of parameter intervals estimated by multiple experiments, and random or grid sampling of model parameters. Whilst these methods are easy to apply, they exhibit pathologies even in low-dimensional parameter spaces, and quickly become problematic to use and interpret in higher dimensions. In this article we give clear guidance for going beyond these procedures, suggesting where possible simple methods for performing statistically sound inference, and recommendations of readily-available software tools and standards that can assist in doing so. Our aim is to provide any physicists lacking comprehensive statistical training with recommendations for reaching correct scientific conclusions, with only a modest increase in analysis burden. Our examples can be reproduced with the code publicly available at Zenodo.
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| 4. |
- Athron, Peter, et al.
(författare)
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A global fit of the MSSM with GAMBIT
- 2017
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Ingår i: European Physical Journal C. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1434-6044 .- 1434-6052. ; 77:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We study the seven-dimensional Minimal Super-symmetric Standard Model (MSSM7) with the new GAMBIT software framework, with all parameters defined at the weak scale. Our analysis significantly extends previous weak-scale, phenomenological MSSM fits, by adding more and newer experimental analyses, improving the accuracy and detail of theoretical predictions, including dominant uncertainties from the Standard Model, the Galactic dark matter halo and the quark content of the nucleon, and employing novel and highly-efficient statistical sampling methods to scan the parameter space. We find regions of the MSSM7 that exhibit co-annihilation of neutralinos with charginos, stops and sbottoms, as well as models that undergo resonant annihilation via both light and heavy Higgs funnels. We find high-likelihood models with light charginos, stops and sbottoms that have the potential to be within the future reach of the LHC. Large parts of our preferred parameter regions will also be accessible to the next generation of direct and indirect dark matter searches, making prospects for discovery in the near future rather good.
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| 5. |
- Athron, Peter, et al.
(författare)
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GAMBIT : the global and modular beyond-the-standard-model inference tool
- 2017
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Ingår i: European Physical Journal C. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1434-6044 .- 1434-6052. ; 77:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We describe the open-source global fitting package GAMBIT: the Global And Modular Beyond-the-Standard-Model Inference Tool. GAMBIT combines extensive calculations of observables and likelihoods in particle and astroparticle physics with a hierarchical model database, advanced tools for automatically building analyses of essentially any model, a flexible and powerful system for interfacing to external codes, a suite of different statistical methods and parameter scanning algorithms, and a host of other utilities designed to make scans faster, safer and more easily-extendible than in the past. Here we give a detailed description of the framework, its design and motivation, and the current models and other specific components presently implemented in GAMBIT. Accompanying papers deal with individual modules and present flrst GAMBIT results. GAMBIT can be downloaded from gambit.hepforge.org.
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| 6. |
- Athron, Peter, et al.
(författare)
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GAMBIT : the global and modular beyond-the-standard-model inference tool
- 2018
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Ingår i: European Physical Journal C. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1434-6044 .- 1434-6052. ; 78:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In Ref. (GAMBIT Collaboration: Athron et. al., Eur. Phys. J. C. arXiv: 1705.07908, 2017) we introduced the global-fitting framework GAMBIT. In this addendum, we describe a new minor version increment of this package. GAMBIT 1.1 includes full support for Mathematica backends, which we describe in some detail here. As an example, we backend SUSYHD (Vega and Villadoro, JHEP 07: 159, 2015), which calculates the mass of the Higgs boson in the MSSM from effective field theory. We also describe updated likelihoods in PrecisionBit and DarkBit, and updated decay data included in DecayBit.
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| 7. |
- Athron, Peter, et al.
(författare)
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Global analyses of Higgs portal singlet dark matter models using GAMBIT
- 2019
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Ingår i: European Physical Journal C. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1434-6044 .- 1434-6052. ; 79:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present global analyses of effective Higgs portal dark matter models in the frequentist and Bayesian statistical frameworks. Complementing earlier studies of the scalar Higgs portal, we use GAMBIT to determine the preferred mass and coupling ranges for models with vector, Majorana and Dirac fermion dark matter. We also assess the relative plausibility of all four models using Bayesian model comparison. Our analysis includes up-to-date likelihood functions for the dark matter relic density, invisible Higgs decays, and direct and indirect searches for weakly-interacting dark matter including the latest XENON1T data. We also account for important uncertainties arising from the local density and velocity distribution of dark matter, nuclear matrix elements relevant to direct detection, and Standard Model masses and couplings. In all Higgs portal models, we find parameter regions that can explain all of dark matter and give a good fit to all data. The case of vector dark matter requires the most tuning and is therefore slightly disfavoured from a Bayesian point of view. In the case of fermionic dark matter, we find a strong preference for including a CP-violating phase that allows suppression of constraints from direct detection experiments, with odds in favour of CP violation of the order of 100:1. Finally, we present DDCalc2.0.0, a tool for calculating direct detection observables and likelihoods for arbitrary non-relativistic effective operators.
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| 8. |
- Athron, Peter, et al.
(författare)
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Global fits of GUT-scale SUSY models with GAMBIT
- 2017
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Ingår i: European Physical Journal C. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1434-6044 .- 1434-6052. ; 77:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present the most comprehensive global fits to date of three supersymmetric models motivated by grand unification: the Constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (CMSSM), and its Non-Universal Higgs Mass generalisations NUHM1 and NUHM2. We include likelihoods from a number of direct and indirect dark matter searches, a large collection of electroweak precision and flavour observables, direct searches for supersymmetry at LEP and Runs I and II of the LHC, and constraints from Higgs observables. Our analysis improves on existing results not only in terms of the number of included observables, but also in the level of detail with which we treat them, our sampling techniques for scanning the parameter space, and our treatment of nuisance parameters. We show that stau co-annihilation is now ruled out in the CMSSM at more than 95% confidence. Stop co-annihilation turns out to be one of the most promising mechanisms for achieving an appropriate relic density of darkmatter in all threemodels, whilst avoiding all other constraints. We find high-likelihood regions of parameter space featuring light stops and charginos, making them potentially detectable in the near future at the LHC. We also show that tonne-scale direct detection will play a largely complementary role, probing large parts of the remaining viable parameter space, including essentially all models with multi-TeV neutralinos.
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| 9. |
- Athron, Peter, et al.
(författare)
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Status of the scalar singlet dark matter model
- 2017
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Ingår i: European Physical Journal C. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1434-6044 .- 1434-6052. ; 77:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- One of the simplest viable models for dark matter is an additional neutral scalar, stabilised by a symmetry. Using the GAMBIT package and combining results from four independent samplers, we present Bayesian and frequentist global fits of this model. We vary the singlet mass and coupling along with 13 nuisance parameters, including nuclear uncertainties relevant for direct detection, the local dark matter density, and selected quark masses and couplings. We include the dark matter relic density measured by Planck, direct searches with LUX, PandaX, SuperCDMS and XENON100, limits on invisible Higgs decays from the Large Hadron Collider, searches for high-energy neutrinos from dark matter annihilation in the Sun with IceCube, and searches for gamma rays from annihilation in dwarf galaxies with the Fermi-LAT. Viable solutions remain at couplings of order unity, for singlet masses between the Higgs mass and about 300 GeV, and at masses above 1 TeV. Only in the latter case can the scalar singlet constitute all of dark matter. Frequentist analysis shows that the low-mass resonance region, where the singlet is about half the mass of the Higgs, can also account for all of dark matter, and remains viable. However, Bayesian considerations show this region to be rather fine-tuned.
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| 10. |
- Bringmann, Torsten, et al.
(författare)
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DarkBit : a GAMBIT module for computing dark matter observables and likelihoods
- 2017
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Ingår i: European Physical Journal C. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1434-6044 .- 1434-6052. ; 77:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We introduce DarkBit, an advanced software code for computing dark matter constraints on various extensions to the Standard Model of particle physics, comprising both new native code and interfaces to external packages. This release includes a dedicated signal yield calculator for gamma-ray observations, which significantly extends current tools by implementing a cascade decay Monte Carlo, as well as a dedicated likelihood calculator for current and future experiments (gamLike). This provides a general solution for studying complex particle physics models that predict dark matter annihilation to a multitude of final states. We also supply a direct detection package that models a large range of direct detection experiments (DDCalc), and provides the corresponding likelihoods for arbitrary combinations of spin-independent and spin-dependent scattering processes. Finally, we provide custom relic density routines along with interfaces to DarkSUSY, micrOMEGAs, and the neutrino telescope likelihood package nulike. DarkBit is written in the framework of the Global And Modular Beyond the StandardModel Inference Tool (GAMBIT), providing seamless integration into a comprehensive statistical fitting framework that allows users to explore new models with both particle and astrophysics constraints, and a con-sistent treatment of systematic uncertainties. In this paper we describe its main functionality, provide a guide to getting started quickly, and show illustrative examples for results obtained with DarkBit (both as a standalone tool and as a GAMBIT module). This includes a quantitative comparison between two of the main dark matter codes (DarkSUSY and micrOMEGAs), and application of DarkBit's advanced direct and indirect detection routines to a simple effective dark matter model.
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| 11. |
- Cornell, Jonathan M., et al.
(författare)
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Dark matter in minimal universal extra dimensions with a stable vacuum and the right Higgs boson
- 2014
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Ingår i: Physical Review D. - 1550-7998 .- 1550-2368. ; 89:5, s. 056005-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The recent discovery of a Higgs boson with mass of about 125 GeV, along with its striking similarity to the prediction from the standard model, informs and constrains many models of new physics. The Higgs mass exhausts one out of three input parameters of the minimal, five-dimensional version of universal extra dimension models, the other two parameters being the Kaluza-Klein (KK) scale and the cutoff scale of the theory. The presence of KK fermions with large coupling to the Higgs implies a short-lived electroweak vacuum, unless the cutoff scale is at most a few times higher than the KK mass scale, providing an additional tight constraint to the theory parameter space. Here, we focus on the lightest KK particle as a dark matter candidate, and investigate the regions of parameter space where such particle has a thermal relic density in accord with the cosmological dark matter density. We find the paradoxical result that, for low enough cutoff scales consistent with vacuum stability, larger than previously thought KK mass scales become preferred to explain the dark matter abundance in the Universe. We explain this phenomenon by pinpointing the additional particles which, at such low cutoffs, become close enough in mass to the dark matter candidate to coannihilate with it. We make predictions for both collider and direct dark matter searches that might soon close in on all viable theory parameter space.
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| 12. |
- Cornell, Jonathan M., et al.
(författare)
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Kinetic decoupling and small-scale structure in effective theories of dark matter
- 2013
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Ingår i: Physical Review D. - 1550-7998 .- 1550-2368. ; 88:1, s. 015027-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The size of the smallest dark matter collapsed structures, or protohalos, is set by the temperature at which dark matter particles fall out of kinetic equilibrium. The process of kinetic decoupling involves elastic scattering of dark matter off of Standard Model particles in the early universe, and the relevant cross section is thus closely related to the cross section for dark matter scattering off of nuclei (direct detection) but also, via crossing symmetries, for dark matter pair production at colliders and for pair annihilation. In this study, we employ an effective-field-theoretic approach to calculate constraints on the kinetic decoupling temperature, and thus on the size of the smallest protohalos, from a variety of direct, indirect and collider probes of particle dark matter.
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| 13. |
- Downing, Andrea S., et al.
(författare)
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Matching scope, purpose and uses of planetary boundaries science
- 2019
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 14:7
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The Planetary Boundaries concept (PBc) has emerged as a key global sustainability concept in international sustainable development arenas. Initially presented as an agenda for global sustainability research, it now shows potential for sustainability governance. Weuse the fact that it is widely cited in scientific literature (>3500 citations) and an extensively studied concept to analyse how it has been used and developed since its first publication. Design: From the literature that cites the PBc, we select those articles that have the terms 'planetary boundaries' or 'safe operating space' in either title, abstract or keywords. Weassume that this literature substantively engages with and develops the PBc. Results: Wefind that 6% of the citing literature engages with the concept. Within this fraction of the literature we distinguish commentaries-that discuss the context and challenges to implementing the PBc, articles that develop the core biogeophysical concept and articles that apply the concept by translating to sub-global scales and by adding a human component to it. Applied literature adds to the concept by explicitly including society through perspectives of impacts, needs, aspirations and behaviours. Discussion: Literature applying the concept does not yet include the more complex, diverse, cultural and behavioural facet of humanity that is implied in commentary literature. Wesuggest there is need for a positive framing of sustainability goals-as a Safe Operating Space rather than boundaries. Key scientific challenges include distinguishing generalised from context-specific knowledge, clarifying which processes are generalizable and which are scalable, and explicitly applying complex systems' knowledge in the application and development of the PBc. We envisage that opportunities to address these challenges will arise when more human social dimensions are integrated, as we learn to feed the global sustainability vision with a plurality of bottom-up realisations of sustainability.
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| 14. |
- Lade, Steven J., et al.
(författare)
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Analytically tractable climate-carbon cycle feedbacks under 21st century anthropogenic forcing
- 2018
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Ingår i: Earth System Dynamics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 2190-4979 .- 2190-4987. ; 9:2, s. 507-523
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Changes to climate-carbon cycle feedbacks may significantly affect the Earth system's response to greenhouse gas emissions. These feedbacks are usually analysed from numerical output of complex and arguably opaque Earth system models. Here, we construct a stylised global climate-carbon cycle model, test its output against comprehensive Earth system models, and investigate the strengths of its climate-carbon cycle feedbacks analytically. The analytical expressions we obtain aid understanding of carbon cycle feedbacks and the operation of the carbon cycle. Specific results include that different feedback formalisms measure fundamentally the same climate-carbon cycle processes; temperature dependence of the solubility pump, biological pump, and CO2 solubility all contribute approximately equally to the ocean climate-carbon feedback; and concentration-carbon feedbacks may be more sensitive to future climate change than climate-carbon feedbacks. Simple models such as that developed here also provide workbenches for simple but mechanistically based explorations of Earth system processes, such as interactions and feedbacks between the planetary boundaries, that are currently too uncertain to be included in comprehensive Earth system models.
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| 15. |
- Mahecha, Miguel D., et al.
(författare)
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Earth system data cubes unravel global multivariate dynamics
- 2020
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Ingår i: Earth System Dynamics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 2190-4979 .- 2190-4987. ; 11:1, s. 201-234
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding Earth system dynamics in light of ongoing human intervention and dependency remains a major scientific challenge. The unprecedented availability of data streams describing different facets of the Earth now offers fundamentally new avenues to address this quest. However, several practical hurdles, especially the lack of data interoperability, limit the joint potential of these data streams. Today, many initiatives within and beyond the Earth system sciences are exploring new approaches to overcome these hurdles and meet the growing interdisciplinary need for data-intensive research; using data cubes is one promising avenue. Here, we introduce the concept of Earth system data cubes and how to operate on them in a formal way. The idea is that treating multiple data dimensions, such as spatial, temporal, variable, frequency, and other grids alike, allows effective application of user-defined functions to co-interpret Earth observations and/or model- data integration. An implementation of this concept combines analysis-ready data cubes with a suitable analytic interface. In three case studies, we demonstrate how the concept and its implementation facilitate the execution of complex workflows for research across multiple variables, and spatial and temporal scales: (1) summary statistics for ecosystem and climate dynamics; (2) intrinsic dimensionality analysis on multiple timescales; and (3) model-data integration. We discuss the emerging perspectives for investigating global interacting and coupled phenomena in observed or simulated data. In particular, we see many emerging perspectives of this approach for interpreting large-scale model ensembles. The latest developments in machine learning, causal inference, and model-data integration can be seamlessly implemented in the proposed framework, supporting rapid progress in data-intensive research across disciplinary boundaries.
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| 16. |
- Niblaeus, Carl, et al.
(författare)
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Effect of polarisation and choice of event generator on spectra from dark matter annihilations
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics. - : IOP Publishing. - 1475-7516. ; :10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- If indirect detection searches are to be used to discriminate between dark matter particle models, it is crucial to understand the expected energy spectra of secondary particles such as neutrinos, charged antiparticles and gamma rays emerging from dark matter annihilations in the local Universe. In this work we study the effect that both the choice of event generator and the polarisation of the final state particles can have on these predictions. For a variety of annihilation channels and dark matter masses, we compare yields obtained with Pythia8 and Herwig7 of all of the aforementioned secondary particle species. We investigate how polarised final states can change these results and do an extensive study of how the polarisation can impact the expected flux of neutrinos from dark matter annihilations in the centre of the Sun. We find that differences between the event generators are larger for yields of hadronic end products such as antiprotons, than for leptonic end products. Concerning polarisation, we conversely find the largest differences in the leptonic spectra. The large differences in the leptonic spectra point to the importance of including polarisation effects in searches for neutrinos from dark matter annihilations in the Sun. However, we find that these differences are ultimately somewhat washed out by propagation effects of the neutrinos in the Sun.
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| 17. |
- Steffen, Will, et al.
(författare)
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Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene
- 2018
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 115:33, s. 8252-8259
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a Hothouse Earth pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System-biosphere, climate, and societies-and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values.
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