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1.	Hay, S. I., et al. (författare) Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 2017 Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1260-1344 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Methods: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE difered from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. Findings: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75Â·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71Â·9-78Â·6) for females and 72Â·0 years (68Â·8-75Â·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45Â·6 years [42Â·0-49Â·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41Â·5 years [39Â·0-44Â·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6Â·24 years (5Â·97-6Â·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6Â·04 years (5Â·74-6Â·27) for males and 6Â·49 years (6Â·08-6Â·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1Â·78 years (1Â·61-1Â·93) for males and 1Â·96 years (1Â·69-2Â·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2Â·3% [-5Â·9 to 0Â·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs ofset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the fve lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16Â·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. Interpretation: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs ofset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention eforts, and development assistance for health, including fnancial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support. Â© The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
2.	Vos, T., et al. (författare) Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 2017 Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1211-1259 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. Methods We estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57.6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40.8-75.9 million [7.2%, 6.0-8.3]), 45.1 million (29.0-62.8 million [5.6%, 4.0-7.2]), 36.3 million (25.3-50.9 million [4.5%, 3.8-5.3]), 34.7 million (23.0-49.6 million [4.3%, 3.5-5.2]), and 34.1 million (23.5-46.0 million [4.2%, 3.2-5.3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2.7% (95% UI 2.3-3.1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-communicable diseases has been growing rapidly across all SDI quintiles, partly because of population growth, but also the ageing of populations. The largest absolute increases in total numbers of YLDs globally were between the ages of 40 and 69 years. Age-standardised YLD rates for all conditions combined were 10.4% (95% UI 9.0-11.8) higher in women than in men. Iron-deficiency anaemia, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, major depressive disorder, anxiety, and all musculoskeletal disorders apart from gout were the main conditions contributing to higher YLD rates in women. Men had higher age-standardised rates of substance use disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and all injuries apart from sexual violence. Globally, we noted much less geographical variation in disability than has been documented for premature mortality. In 2016, there was a less than two times difference in age-standardised YLD rates for all causes between the location with the lowest rate (China, 9201 YLDs per 100 000, 95% UI 6862-11943) and highest rate (Yemen, 14 774 YLDs per 100 000, 11 018-19 228). Interpretation The decrease in death rates since 1990 for most causes has not been matched by a similar decline in age-standardised YLD rates. For many large causes, YLD rates have either been stagnant or have increased for some causes, such as diabetes. As populations are ageing, and the prevalence of disabling disease generally increases steeply with age, health systems will face increasing demand for services that are generally costlier than the interventions that have led to declines in mortality in childhood or for the major causes of mortality in adults. Up-todate information about the trends of disease and how this varies between countries is essential to plan for an adequate health-system response. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
3.	Fullman, N., et al. (författare) Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 2018 Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier BV. - 0140-6736. ; 391:10136, s. 2236-2271 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016. Methods Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita. Findings In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97.1 (95% UI 95.8-98.1) in Iceland, followed by 96.6 (94.9-97.9) in Norway and 96.1 (94.5-97.3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18.6 (13.1-24.4) in the Central African Republic, 19.0 (14.3-23.7) in Somalia, and 23.4 (20.2-26.8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91.5 (89.1-936) in Beijing to 48.0 (43.4-53.2) in Tibet (a 43.5-point difference), while India saw a 30.8-point disparity, from 64.8 (59.6-68.8) in Goa to 34.0 (30.3-38.1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4.8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20.9-point to 17.0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17.2-point to 20.4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle-SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view and subsequent provision of quality health care for all populations. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
4.	Wang, H. D., et al. (författare) Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 2017 Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1084-1150 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. Methods We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0.5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. Findings Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86.9 years (95% UI 86.7-87.2), and for men in Singapore, at 81.3 years (78.8-83.7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. Interpretation Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
5.	Fullman, N., et al. (författare) Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 2017 Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1423-1459 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. Methods We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2.5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97.5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56.7 (IQR 31.9-66.8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86.8, 95% uncertainty interval 84.6-88.9), Iceland (86.0, 84.1-87.6), and Sweden (85.6, 81.8-87.8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10.9, 9.6-11.9), the Central African Republic (11.0, 8.8-13.8), and Somalia (11.3, 9.5-13.1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2-8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations. Copyright The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article published under the CC BY 4.0 license.
6.	Barber, R. M., et al. (författare) Healthcare access and quality index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015 : A novel analysis from the global burden of disease study 2015 2017 Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10091, s. 231-266 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. Methods We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r=0Â·88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r=0Â·83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r=0Â·77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time. Findings Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28Â·6 to 94Â·6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40Â·7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39Â·0-42Â·8) in 1990 to 53Â·7 (52Â·2-55Â·4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21Â·2 in 1990 to 20Â·1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73Â·8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015. Interpretation This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-system characteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world. Copyright Â© The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
7.	Barber, R. M., et al. (författare) Healthcare Access and Quality Index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: a novel analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 2017 Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier BV. - 0140-6736. ; 390:10091, s. 231-266 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. Methods We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r= 0.88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r= 0.83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r= 0.77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time. Findings Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28.6 to 94.6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40.7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39.0-42.8) in 1990 to 53.7 (52.2-55.4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21.2 in 1990 to 20.1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73.8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015. Interpretation This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-systemcharacteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
8.	Gakidou, E., et al. (författare) Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 2017 Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1345-1422 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined. Findings Since 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for men were smoking (124.1 million DALYs [95% UI 111.2 million to 137.0 million]), high systolic blood pressure (122.2 million DALYs [110.3 million to 133.3 million], and low birthweight and short gestation (83.0 million DALYs [78.3 million to 87.7 million]), and for women, were high systolic blood pressure (89.9 million DALYs [80.9 million to 98.2 million]), high body-mass index (64.8 million DALYs [44.4 million to 87.6 million]), and high fasting plasma glucose (63.8 million DALYs [53.2 million to 76.3 million]). In 2016 in 113 countries, the leading risk factor in terms of attributable DALYs was a metabolic risk factor. Smoking remained among the leading five risk factors for DALYs for 109 countries, while low birthweight and short gestation was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 38 countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In terms of important drivers of change in trends of burden attributable to risk factors, between 2006 and 2016 exposure to risks explains an 9.3% (6.9-11.6) decline in deaths and a 10.8% (8.3-13.1) decrease in DALYs at the global level, while population ageing accounts for 14.9% (12.7-17.5) of deaths and 6.2% (3.9-8.7) of DALYs, and population growth for 12.4% (10.1-14.9) of deaths and 12.4% (10.1-14.9) of DALYs. The largest contribution of trends in risk exposure to disease burden is seen between ages 1 year and 4 years, where a decline of 27.3% (24.9-29.7) of the change in DALYs between 2006 and 2016 can be attributed to declines in exposure to risks. Interpretation Increasingly detailed understanding of the trends in risk exposure and the RRs for each risk-outcome pair provide insights into both the magnitude of health loss attributable to risks and how modification of risk exposure has contributed to health trends. Metabolic risks warrant particular policy attention, due to their large contribution to global disease burden, increasing trends, and variable patterns across countries at the same level of development. GBD 2016 findings show that, while it has huge potential to improve health, risk modification has played a relatively small part in the past decade. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
9.	Kassebaum, N., et al. (författare) Child and Adolescent Health From 1990 to 2015 Findings From the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2015 Study 2017 Ingår i: Jama Pediatrics. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2168-6203 .- 2168-6211. ; 171:6, s. 573-592 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract IMPORTANCE Comprehensive and timely monitoring of disease burden in all age groups, including children and adolescents, is essential for improving population health. OBJECTIVE To quantify and describe levels and trends of mortality and nonfatal health outcomes among children and adolescents from 1990 to 2015 to provide a framework for policy discussion. EVIDENCE REVIEW Cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes were analyzed for 195 countries and territories by age group, sex, and year from 1990 to 2015 using standardized approaches for data processing and statistical modeling, with subsequent analysis of the findings to describe levels and trends across geography and time among children and adolescents 19 years or younger. A composite indicator of income, education, and fertility was developed (Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) for each geographic unit and year, which evaluates the historical association between SDI and health loss. FINDINGS Global child and adolescent mortality decreased from 14.18 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 14.09 million to 14.28 million) deaths in 1990 to 7.26 million (95% UI, 7.14 million to 7.39 million) deaths in 2015, but progress has been unevenly distributed. Countries with a lower SDI had a larger proportion of mortality burden (75%) in 2015 than was the case in 1990 (61%). Most deaths in 2015 occurred in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Global trends were driven by reductions in mortality owing to infectious, nutritional, and neonatal disorders, which in the aggregate led to a relative increase in the importance of noncommunicable diseases and injuries in explaining global disease burden. The absolute burden of disability in children and adolescents increased 4.3%(95% UI, 3.1%-5.6%) from 1990 to 2015, with much of the increase owing to population growth and improved survival for children and adolescents to older ages. Other than infectious conditions, many top causes of disability are associated with long-term sequelae of conditions present at birth (eg, neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, and hemoglobinopathies) and complications of a variety of infections and nutritional deficiencies. Anemia, developmental intellectual disability, hearing loss, epilepsy, and vision loss are important contributors to childhood disability that can arise from multiple causes. Maternal and reproductive health remains a key cause of disease burden in adolescent females, especially in lower-SDI countries. In low-SDI countries, mortality is the primary driver of health loss for children and adolescents, whereas disability predominates in higher-SDI locations; the specific pattern of epidemiological transition varies across diseases and injuries. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Consistent international attention and investment have led to sustained improvements in causes of health loss among children and adolescents in many countries, although progress has been uneven. The persistence of infectious diseases in some countries, coupled with ongoing epidemiologic transition to injuries and noncommunicable diseases, require all countries to carefully evaluate and implement appropriate strategies to maximize the health of their children and adolescents and for the international community to carefully consider which elements of child and adolescent health should be monitored.
10.	Naghavi, Mohsen, et al. (författare) Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 2015 Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
11.	Vos, Theo, et al. (författare) Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 2015 Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
12.	Wang, Haidong, et al. (författare) Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 2016 Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
13.	Murray, CJL, et al. (författare) Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990-2013: quantifying the epidemiological transition 2015 Ingår i: Lancet (London, England). - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386, s. 2145-2191 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
14.	Dicker, D, et al. (författare) Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 2018 Ingår i: Lancet (London, England). - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1684-1735 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
15.	Roth, GA, et al. (författare) Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 2018 Ingår i: Lancet (London, England). - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1736-1788 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
16.	Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al. (författare) Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 2016 Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
17.	Lim, SS, et al. (författare) Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 2016 Ingår i: Lancet (London, England). - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 388:10053, s. 1813-1850 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
18.	Vos, T, et al. (författare) Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 2016 Ingår i: Lancet (London, England). - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 388:10053, s. 1545-1602 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
19.	Fullman, Nancy, et al. (författare) Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: A systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 2018 Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 391:10136, s. 2236-2271 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
20.	Kyu, HH, et al. (författare) Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 2018 Ingår i: Lancet (London, England). - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1859-1922 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
21.	James, SL, et al. (författare) Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 2018 Ingår i: Lancet (London, England). - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1789-1858 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
22.	Forouzanfar, MH, et al. (författare) Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 2016 Ingår i: Lancet (London, England). - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 388:10053, s. 1659-1724 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
23.	Kyu, Hmwe H, et al. (författare) Global and National Burden of Diseases and Injuries Among Children and Adolescents Between 1990 and 2013 : Findings From the Global Burden of Disease 2013 Study. 2016 Ingår i: JAMA pediatrics. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2168-6203 .- 2168-6211. ; 170:3, s. 267-287 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract IMPORTANCE: The literature focuses on mortality among children younger than 5 years. Comparable information on nonfatal health outcomes among these children and the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among older children and adolescents is scarce.OBJECTIVE: To determine levels and trends in the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among younger children (aged <5 years), older children (aged 5-9 years), and adolescents (aged 10-19 years) between 1990 and 2013 in 188 countries from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study.EVIDENCE REVIEW: Data from vital registration, verbal autopsy studies, maternal and child death surveillance, and other sources covering 14 244 site-years (ie, years of cause of death data by geography) from 1980 through 2013 were used to estimate cause-specific mortality. Data from 35 620 epidemiological sources were used to estimate the prevalence of the diseases and sequelae in the GBD 2013 study. Cause-specific mortality for most causes was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model strategy. For some infectious diseases (eg, HIV infection/AIDS, measles, hepatitis B) where the disease process is complex or the cause of death data were insufficient or unavailable, we used natural history models. For most nonfatal health outcomes, DisMod-MR 2.0, a Bayesian metaregression tool, was used to meta-analyze the epidemiological data to generate prevalence estimates.FINDINGS: Of the 7.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7.4-8.1) million deaths among children and adolescents globally in 2013, 6.28 million occurred among younger children, 0.48 million among older children, and 0.97 million among adolescents. In 2013, the leading causes of death were lower respiratory tract infections among younger children (905 059 deaths; 95% UI, 810 304-998 125), diarrheal diseases among older children (38 325 deaths; 95% UI, 30 365-47 678), and road injuries among adolescents (115 186 deaths; 95% UI, 105 185-124 870). Iron deficiency anemia was the leading cause of years lived with disability among children and adolescents, affecting 619 (95% UI, 618-621) million in 2013. Large between-country variations exist in mortality from leading causes among children and adolescents. Countries with rapid declines in all-cause mortality between 1990 and 2013 also experienced large declines in most leading causes of death, whereas countries with the slowest declines had stagnant or increasing trends in the leading causes of death. In 2013, Nigeria had a 12% global share of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections and a 38% global share of deaths from malaria. India had 33% of the world's deaths from neonatal encephalopathy. Half of the world's diarrheal deaths among children and adolescents occurred in just 5 countries: India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Ethiopia.CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Understanding the levels and trends of the leading causes of death and disability among children and adolescents is critical to guide investment and inform policies. Monitoring these trends over time is also key to understanding where interventions are having an impact. Proven interventions exist to prevent or treat the leading causes of unnecessary death and disability among children and adolescents. The findings presented here show that these are underused and give guidance to policy makers in countries where more attention is needed.
24.	Schlee, W, et al. (författare) Towards a unification of treatments and interventions for tinnitus patients: The EU research and innovation action UNITI 2021 Ingår i: Progress in brain research. - : Elsevier. - 1875-7855. ; 260, s. 441-451 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
25.	Morin, RD, et al. (författare) Genetic Landscapes of Relapsed and Refractory Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphomas 2016 Ingår i: Clinical cancer research : an official journal of the American Association for Cancer Research. - 1557-3265. ; 22:9, s. 2290-2300 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
26.	Wandell, Per, et al. (författare) Diabetes During Pregnancy Among Immigrants in Sweden: A National Cohort Study of All Pregnant Women in Sweden 2023 Ingår i: Diabetes care. - : American Diabetes Association. - 1935-5548 .- 0149-5992. ; 46:4, s. E94-E96 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
27.	Crump, Casey, et al. (författare) Comparative risk of suicide by specific substance use disorders : A national cohort study 2021 Ingår i: Journal of Psychiatric Research. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-3956. ; 144, s. 247-254 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Substance use disorders (SUDs) are important risk factors for suicide, yet little is known about how suicide risks vary by specific SUDs. We examined these risks for the first time in a large general population to facilitate comparisons across SUDs. A national cohort study was conducted of all 6,947,191 adults in Sweden. SUDs (opioid, sedative/hypnotic, hallucinogen, cannabis, amphetamine, cocaine, and alcohol use disorders) were identified using inpatient, outpatient, and crime data, and suicide deaths using nationwide death data with follow-up during 2003–2016. Cox regression was used to compute hazard ratios (HRs) for suicide death while adjusting for sociodemographic factors and psychiatric, SUD, and somatic comorbidities. Co-sibling analyses assessed for confounding by unmeasured shared familial (genetic and/or environmental) factors. In 79.8 million person-years of follow-up, 15,616 (0.2%) suicide deaths were identified. All SUDs were associated with significantly increased risks, with HRs ranging from 12- to 26-fold and 2.5- to 6.4-fold before and after adjusting for covariates, respectively. After adjusting for all covariates, opioid use disorder was the strongest risk factor (HR, 6.39; 95% CI, 5.53–7.38) (P ≤ 0.002 compared with any other SUD), followed by sedative/hypnotic use disorder (4.62; 4.06–5.27) (P ≤ 0.009 compared with any other SUD except opioid or hallucinogen). Most associations persisted after controlling for shared familial factors, consistent with causal effects. In this large national cohort, all SUDs were associated with significantly increased risks of suicide death, especially opioid and sedative/hypnotic use disorders. These findings may improve risk stratification and inform interventions to prevent suicide in the highest-risk subgroups with SUDs.
28.	Crump, Casey, et al. (författare) Health care utilization prior to suicide in adults with drug use disorders 2021 Ingår i: Journal of Psychiatric Research. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-3956. ; 135, s. 230-236 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Drug use disorders (DUD) are associated with psychiatric illness and increased risks of suicide. We examined health care utilization prior to suicide in adults with DUD, which may reveal opportunities to prevent suicide in this high-risk population. A national cohort study was conducted of all 6,947,191 adults in Sweden, including 166,682 (2.4%) with DUD, who were followed up for suicide during 2002–2015. A nested case-control design examined health care utilization among persons with DUD who died by suicide and 10:1 age- and sex-matched controls from the general population. In 86.7 million person-years of follow-up, 15,662 (0.2%) persons died by suicide, including 1946 (1.2%) persons with DUD. Unadjusted and adjusted relative risks of suicide associated with DUD were 11.03 (95% CI, 10.62–11.46) and 2.84 (2.68–3.00), respectively. 30.4% and 52.3% of DUD cases who died by suicide had a health care encounter within 2 weeks or 3 months before the index date, respectively, compared with 5.9% and 24.3% of controls (unadjusted prevalence ratio and difference, <2 weeks: 5.20 [95% CI, 4.76–5.67] and 24.6 percentage points [22.5–26.6]; <3 months: 2.15 [2.05–2.26] and 27.9 [25.6–30.2]). However, after adjusting for psychiatric comorbidities, these differences were much attenuated. Among DUD cases, 72.5% of last encounters within 2 weeks before suicide were in outpatient clinics, mostly for non-psychiatric diagnoses. In this large national cohort, suicide among adults with DUD was often shortly preceded by outpatient clinic encounters. Clinical encounters in these settings are important opportunities to identify suicidality and intervene accordingly in patients with DUD.
29.	Crump, Casey, et al. (författare) Healthcare utilisation prior to suicide in persons with alcohol use disorder : National cohort and nested case-control study 2020 Ingår i: British Journal of Psychiatry. - : Royal College of Psychiatrists. - 0007-1250 .- 1472-1465. ; 217:6, s. 710-716 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background Alcohol use disorder (AUD) is common and associated with increased risk of suicide. Aims To examine healthcare utilisation prior to suicide in persons with AUD in a large population-based cohort, which may reveal opportunities for prevention. Method A national cohort study was conducted of 6 947 191 adults in Sweden in 2002, including 256 647 (3.7%) with AUD, with follow-up for suicide through 2015. A nested case-control design examined healthcare utilisation among people with AUD who died by suicide and 10:1 age- and gender-matched controls. Results In 86.7 million person-years of follow-up, 15 662 (0.2%) persons died by suicide, including 2601 (1.0%) with AUD. Unadjusted and adjusted relative risks for suicide associated with AUD were 8.15 (95% CI 7.86-8.46) and 2.22 (95% CI 2.11-2.34). Of the people with AUD who died by suicide, 39.7% and 75.6% had a healthcare encounter <2 weeks or <3 months before the index date respectively, compared with 6.3% and 25.4% of controls (adjusted prevalence ratio (PR) and difference (PD), <2 weeks: PR = 3.86, 95% CI 3.50-4.25, PD = 26.4, 95% CI 24.2-28.6; <3 months: PR = 2.03, 95% CI 1.94-2.12, PD = 34.9, 95% CI 32.6-37.1). AUD accounted for more healthcare encounters within 2 weeks of suicide among men than women (P = 0.01). Of last encounters, 48.1% were in primary care and 28.9% were in specialty out-patient clinics, mostly for non-psychiatric diagnoses. Conclusions Suicide among persons with AUD is often shortly preceded by healthcare encounters in primary care or specialty out-patient clinics. Encounters in these settings are important opportunities to identify active suicidality and intervene accordingly in patients with AUD.
30.	Crump, C., et al. (författare) Interactive effects of obesity and physical fitness on risk of ischemic heart disease 2017 Ingår i: International Journal of Obesity. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0307-0565 .- 1476-5497. ; 41:2, s. 255-261 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background/Objectives:Obesity and low physical fitness are known risk factors for ischemic heart disease (IHD), but their interactive effects are unclear. Elucidation of interactions between these common, modifiable risk factors may help inform more effective preventive strategies. We examined interactive effects of obesity, aerobic fitness and muscular strength in late adolescence on risk of IHD in adulthood in a large national cohort.Subjects/Methods:We conducted a national cohort study of all 1 547 407 military conscripts in Sweden during 1969-1997 (97-98% of all 18-year-old males each year). Aerobic fitness, muscular strength and body mass index (BMI) measurements were examined in relation to IHD identified from outpatient and inpatient diagnoses through 2012 (maximum age 62 years).Results:There were 38 142 men diagnosed with IHD in 39.7 million person years of follow-up. High BMI or low aerobic fitness (but not muscular strength) was associated with higher risk of IHD, adjusting for family history and socioeconomic factors. The combination of high BMI (overweight/obese vs normal) and low aerobic fitness (lowest vs highest tertile) was associated with highest IHD risk (incidence rate ratio, 3.11; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.91-3.31; P<0.001). These exposures had no additive and a negative multiplicative interaction (that is, their combined effect was less than the product of their separate effects). Low aerobic fitness was a strong risk factor even among those with normal BMI.Conclusions:In this large cohort study, low aerobic fitness or high BMI at age 18 was associated with higher risk of IHD in adulthood, with a negative multiplicative interaction. Low aerobic fitness appeared to account for a similar number of IHD cases among those with normal vs high BMI (that is, no additive interaction). These findings suggest that interventions to prevent IHD should begin early in life and include not only weight control but aerobic fitness, even among persons of normal weight.
31.	Crump, Casey, et al. (författare) Preterm birth, low fetal growth and risk of suicide in adulthood : A national cohort and co-sibling study 2021 Ingår i: International Journal of Epidemiology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0300-5771 .- 1464-3685. ; 50:5, s. 1604-1614 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background: Adverse perinatal exposures have been associated with psychiatric disorders and suicidal behaviours later in life. However, the independent associations of gestational age at birth or fetal growth with suicide death, potential sex-specific differences, and causality of these associations are unclear. Methods: A national cohort study was conducted of all 2 440 518 singletons born in Sweden during 1973-98 who survived to age 18 years, who were followed up through 2016. Cox regression was used to compute hazard ratios (HRs) for suicide death associated with gestational age at birth or fetal growth while mutually adjusting for these factors, sociodemographic characteristics and family history of suicide. Co-sibling analyses assessed the influence of unmeasured shared familial (genetic and/or environmental) factors. Results: In 31.2 million person-years of follow-up, 4470 (0.2%) deaths by suicide were identified. Early preterm birth (22-33 weeks) was associated with an increased risk of suicide among females [adjusted hazard ratio (HR), 1.97; 95% confidence interval CI), 1.29, 3.01; P = 0.002) but not males (0.90; 0.64, 1.28; P = 0.56), compared with full-term birth (39-41 weeks). Small for gestational age was associated with a modestly increased risk of suicide among females (adjusted HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.08, 1.51; P = 0.005) and males (1.14; 1.03, 1.27; P = 0.02). However, these associations were attenuated and non-significant after controlling for shared familial factors. Conclusions: In this large national cohort, preterm birth in females and low fetal growth in males and females were associated with increased risks of suicide death in adulthood. However, these associations appeared to be non-causal and related to shared genetic or prenatal environmental factors within families.
32.	Crump, Casey, et al. (författare) Response to Lao, Guan, Wang, et al. 2024 Ingår i: Journal of the National Cancer Institute. - 0027-8874. ; 116:5, s. 770-770 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
33.	Crump, Casey, et al. (författare) Risks of alcohol and drug use disorders in prostate cancer survivors : a national cohort study 2023 Ingår i: JNCI CANCER SPECTRUM. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 2515-5091. ; 7:4 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background: Prostate cancer (PC) survivors may potentially use substances to cope with psychological distress or poorly controlled physical symptoms. Little is known, however, about the long-term risks of alcohol use disorder (AUD) or drug use disorders in men with PC.Methods: A national cohort study was conducted in Sweden of 180 189 men diagnosed with PC between 1998 and 2017 and 1 801 890 age-matched population-based control men. AUD and drug use disorders were ascertained from nationwide records through 2018. Cox regression was used to compute hazard ratios (HRs) while adjusting for sociodemographic factors and prior psychiatric disorders. Subanalyses examined differences by PC treatment from 2005 to 2017.Results: Men with high-risk PC had increased risks of both AUD (adjusted HR = 1.44, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.33 to 1.57) and drug use disorders (adjusted HR = 1.93, 95% CI = 1.67 to 2.24). Their AUD risk was highest in the first year and was no longer significantly elevated 5 years after PC diagnosis, whereas their drug use disorders risk remained elevated 10 years after PC diagnosis (adjusted HR = 2.26, 95% CI = 1.45 to 3.52), particularly opioid use disorder (adjusted HR = 3.07, 95% CI = 1.61 to 5.84). Those treated only with androgen-deprivation therapy had the highest risks of AUD (adjusted HR = 1.91, 95% CI = 1.62 to 2.25) and drug use disorders (adjusted HR = 2.23, 95% CI = 1.70 to 2.92). Low- or intermediate-risk PC was associated with modestly increased risks of AUD (adjusted HR = 1.38, 95% CI = 1.30 to 1.46) and drug use disorders (adjusted HR = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.06 to 1.34).Conclusions: In this large cohort, men with PC had significantly increased risks of both AUD and drug use disorders, especially those with high-risk PC and treated only with androgen-deprivation therapy. PC survivors need long-term psychosocial support and timely detection and treatment of AUD and drug use disorders.
34.	Crump, Casey, et al. (författare) Risks of Depression and Suicide After Diagnosis With Heart Failure : A National Cohort Study 2022 Ingår i: JACC: Heart Failure. - : Elsevier BV. - 2213-1779. ; 10:11, s. 819-827 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background: Heart failure (HF) has been associated with psychosocial distress, but other long-term mental health sequelae are unclear. Objectives: In this study, the authors sought to determine risks of major depression and suicide, susceptible time periods, and sex-specific differences after HF diagnosis in a large population-based cohort. Methods: A national cohort study was conducted of all 154,572 persons diagnosed with HF at ages 18-75 years during 2002-2017 in Sweden and 1,545,720 age- and sex-matched population-based control subjects who were followed up for major depression and suicide ascertained from nationwide inpatient, outpatient, and death records through 2018. Poisson regression was used to compute incidence rate ratios (IRRs) while adjusting for sociodemographic factors and comorbidities. Results: HF was associated with increased risks of major depression and death by suicide in both men and women, with highest risks in the first 3 months, then declining to modest risks at ≥12 months after HF diagnosis. Within 3 months after HF diagnosis, adjusted IRRs for new-onset major depression were 3.34 (95% CI: 3.04-3.68) in men and 2.78 (95% CI: 2.51-3.09) in women, and for suicide death were 4.47 (95% CI: 2.62-7.62) in men and 2.82 (95% CI: 1.11-7.12) in women. These risks were elevated regardless of age at HF diagnosis. HF was associated with significantly more depression cases in women (P < 0.001). Conclusions: In this large national cohort, HF was associated with substantially increased risks of depression and suicide in men and women, with highest risks occurring within 3 months after HF diagnosis. Men and women with HF need timely detection and treatment of depression and suicidality.
35.	Crump, Casey, et al. (författare) Risks of depression, anxiety, and suicide in partners of men with prostate cancer : a national cohort study 2024 Ingår i: Journal of the National Cancer Institute. - 0027-8874. ; 116:5, s. 745-752 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background: A diagnosis of prostate cancer (PC) may cause psychosocial distress not only in a man but also in his intimate partner. However, long-term risks of depression, anxiety, or suicide in partners of men with PC are largely unknown. Methods: A national cohort study was conducted of 121 530 partners of men diagnosed with PC during 1998-2017 and 1 093 304 population-based controls in Sweden. Major depression, anxiety disorder, and suicide death were ascertained through 2018. Cox regression was used to compute hazard ratios (HRs) while adjusting for sociodemographic factors. Results: Partners of men with high-risk PC had increased risks of major depression (adjusted HR ¼ 1.34, 95% confidence interval [CI] ¼ 1.30 to 1.39) and anxiety disorder (adjusted HR ¼ 1.25, 95% CI ¼ 1.20 to 1.30), which remained elevated 10 or more years later. Suicide death was increased in partners of men with distant metastases (adjusted HR ¼ 2.38, 95% CI ¼ 1.08 to 5.22) but not other high-risk PC (adjusted HR ¼1.14, 95% CI ¼ 0.70 to 1.88). Among partners of men with high-risk PC, risks of major depression and anxiety disorder were highest among those 80 years of age or older (adjusted HR ¼ 1.73; 95% CI ¼ 1.53 to 1.96; adjusted HR ¼ 1.70, 95% CI ¼ 1.47 to 1.96, respectively), whereas suicide death was highest among those younger than 60 years of age (adjusted HR ¼ 7.55, 95% CI ¼ 2.20 to 25.89). In contrast, partners of men with low- or intermediate-risk PC had modestly or no increased risks of these outcomes. Conclusions: In this large cohort, partners of men with high-risk PC had increased risks of major depression and anxiety disorder, which persisted for 10 or more years. Suicide death was increased 2-fold in partners of men with distant metastases. Partners as well as men with PC need psychosocial support and close follow-up for psychosocial distress.
36.	Crump, C., et al. (författare) Sociodemographic, psychiatric and somatic risk factors for suicide: a Swedish national cohort study 2014 Ingår i: Psychological Medicine. - 1469-8978. ; 44:2, s. 279-289 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background More effective prevention of suicide requires a comprehensive understanding of sociodemographic, psychiatric and somatic risk factors. Previous studies have been limited by incomplete ascertainment of these factors. We conducted the first study of this issue using sociodemographic and out-patient and in-patient health data for a national population. Method We used data from a national cohort study of 7140589 Swedish adults followed for 8 years for suicide mortality (2001-2008). Sociodemographic factors were identified from national census data, and psychiatric and somatic disorders were identified from all out-patient and in-patient diagnoses nationwide. Results There were 8721 (0.12%) deaths from suicide during 2001-2008. All psychiatric disorders were strong risk factors for suicide among both women and men. Depression was the strongest risk factor, with a greater than 15-fold risk among women or men and even higher risks (up to 32-fold) within the first 3 months of diagnosis. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), cancer, spine disorders, asthma and stroke were significant risk factors among both women and men (1.4-2.1-fold risks) whereas diabetes and ischemic heart disease were modest risk factors only among men (1.2-1.4-fold risks). Sociodemographic risk factors included male sex, unmarried status or non-employment; and low education or income among men. Conclusions All psychiatric disorders, COPD, cancer, spine disorders, asthma, stroke, diabetes, ischemic heart disease and specific sociodemographic factors were independent risk factors for suicide during 8 years of follow-up. Effective prevention of suicide requires a multifaceted approach in both psychiatric and primary care settings, targeting mental disorders (especially depression), specific somatic disorders and indicators of social support.
37.	Edwards, Alexis C., et al. (författare) Alcohol use disorder and non-fatal suicide attempt : findings from a Swedish National Cohort Study 2022 Ingår i: Addiction. - : Wiley. - 0965-2140 .- 1360-0443. ; 117:1, s. 96-105 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background and Aims: Alcohol use disorder (AUD) is associated with increased risk of non-fatal suicide attempt. We aimed to measure the strength and mechanistic nature of the association between AUD and increased suicide attempt and determine any causal pathways and/or shared risk factors. Design: We used Cox proportional hazards models in population-level and co-relative analyses to evaluate the risk of first non-fatal suicide attempt as a function of previous AUD. Setting and Participants: We used continuously updated longitudinal nationwide Swedish registry data on native Swedes born from 1950 to 1970 (n = 2 229 619) and followed from age 15 until 2012. Measurements: AUD and suicide attempt were identified using International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-8, ICD-9, and ICD-10 codes. AUD was also identified using pharmacy and criminal records. Genetic and family environmental risks were derived based on relatedness via the Multi-Generation Register and shared residency via the Population and Housing Census and the Total Population Register. Findings: AUD was robustly associated with suicide attempt in crude models (hazard ratio [HR] = 15.24 [95% CI: 14.92, 15.56]). In models adjusted for sociodemographic factors and psychiatric comorbidity, the association was attenuated: for women, HRs declined gradually across time, ranging from 5.55 (3.72, 8.29) during the observation period that ranged from age 15 to 19 years to 1.77 (1.65, 1.90) at age 40 or older. For men, the corresponding figures were 6.12 (4.07, 9.19) and 1.83 (1.72, 1.94); in contrast to women, risk of suicide attempt among men increased from age 15 to 29 before declining. In co-relative models, a residual association remained, consistent with a causal path from AUD to suicide attempt. Conclusions: In Sweden, alcohol use disorder appears to be an important predictor of suicide attempt even in the context of other psychiatric disorders. The observed association is likely the result of features that jointly impact risk of alcohol use disorder and suicide attempts (genetic liability, psychiatric illness, and childhood stressors) and a potentially causal pathway, acting independently or in conjunction with one another.
38.	Edwards, Alexis C., et al. (författare) Alcohol use disorder and risk of specific methods of suicide death in a national cohort 2024 Ingår i: Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica. - 0001-690X. Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Introduction: Alcohol use disorder (AUD) is among the strongest correlates of suicide death, but it is unclear whether AUD status is differentially associated with risk of suicide by particular methods. Methods: The authors used competing risks models to evaluate the association between AUD status and risk of suicide by poisoning, suffocation, drowning, firearm, instruments, jumping, or other means in a large Swedish cohort born 1932–1995 (total N = 6,581,827; 48.8% female). Data were derived from Swedish national registers, including the Cause of Death Register and a range of medical registers. Results: After adjusting for sociodemographic factors and familial liability to suicidal behavior, AUD was positively associated with risk of suicide for each method evaluated (cumulative incidence differences: 0.006–1.040 for females, 0.046–0.680 for males), except the association with firearm suicide in females. AUD was most strongly associated with risk of suicide by poisoning. Sex differences in the effects of AUD and family liability were observed for some, but not all, methods. Furthermore, high familial liability for suicidal behavior exacerbated AUD's impact on risk for suicide by poisoning (both sexes) and suffocation and jumping (males only), while the inverse interaction was observed for firearm suicide (males only). Conclusions: AUD increases risk of suicide by all methods examined and is particularly potent with respect to risk of suicide by poisoning. Differences in risk related to sex and familial liability to suicidal behavior underscore AUD's nuanced role in suicide risk. Future research should investigate targeted means restriction effectiveness among persons with AUD.
39.	Edwards, Alexis C., et al. (författare) Divorce and risk of suicide attempt : A Swedish national study Ingår i: Psychological Medicine. - 0033-2917. Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background Prior research has reported an association between divorce and suicide attempt. We aimed to clarify this complex relationship, considering sex differences, temporal factors, and underlying etiologic pathways. Methods We used Swedish longitudinal national registry data for a cohort born 1960-1990 that was registered as married between 1978 and 2018 (N = 1 601 075). We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the association between divorce and suicide attempt. To assess whether observed associations were attributable to familial confounders or potentially causal in nature, we conducted co-relative analyses. Results In the overall sample and in sex-stratified analyses, divorce was associated with increased risk of suicide attempt (adjusted hazard ratios [HRs] 1.66-1.77). Risk was highest in the year immediately following divorce (HRs 2.20-2.91) and declined thereafter, but remained elevated 5 or more years later (HRs 1.41-1.51). Divorcees from shorter marriages were at higher risk for suicide attempt than those from longer marriages (HRs 3.33-3.40 and 1.20-1.36, respectively). In general, HRs were higher for divorced females than for divorced males. Co-relative analyses suggested that familial confounders and a causal pathway contribute to the observed associations. Conclusions The association between divorce and risk of suicide attempt is complex, varying as a function of sex and time-related variables. Given evidence that the observed association is due in part to a causal pathway from divorce to suicide attempt, intervention or prevention efforts, such as behavioral therapy, could be most effective early in the divorce process, and in particular among females and those whose marriages were of short duration.
40.	Edwards, Alexis C., et al. (författare) Exposure to alcohol outlets and risk of suicidal behavior in a Swedish cohort of young adults 2023 Ingår i: Alcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research. - 0145-6008. ; 47:5, s. 930-939 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background: Greater alcohol accessibility, for example in the form of a high density of alcohol outlets or low alcohol taxation rates, may be associated with increased risk of suicidal behavior. However, most studies have been conducted at the aggregate level, and some have not accounted for potential confounders such as socioeconomic position or neighborhood quality. Methods: In a Swedish cohort of young adults aged 18 to 25, we used logistic regressions to evaluate whether living in a neighborhood that included bars, nightclubs, and/or government alcohol outlets was associated with risk of suicide attempt (SA) or suicide death (SD) during four separate 2-year observation periods. Neighborhoods were defined using pre-established nationwide designations. We conducted combined-sex and sex-stratified analyses, and included as covariates indicators of socioeconomic position, neighborhood deprivation, and aggregate genetic liability to suicidal behavior. Results: Risk of SA was increased in some subsamples of individuals living in a neighborhood with a bar or government alcohol outlet (odds ratios [ORs] = 1.05 to 1.15). Risk of SD was also higher among certain subsamples living in a neighborhood with a government outlet (ORs = 1.47 to 1.56), but lower for those living near a bar (ORs = 0.89 to 0.91). Significant results were driven by, but not exclusive to, the male subsample. Individuals with higher aggregate genetic risk for SA were more sensitive to the effects of a neighborhood government alcohol outlet, pooled across observation periods, in analyses of the sexes combined (relative excess risk due to interaction [RERI] = 0.05; 95% confidence intervals [CI] 0.01; 0.09) and in the male subsample (RERI = 0.06; 95% CI 0.001; 0.12). Conclusions: Although effect sizes are small, living in a neighborhood with bars and/or government alcohol outlets may increase suicidal behavior among young adults. Individuals with higher genetic liability for SA are slightly more susceptible to these exposures.
41.	Edwards, Alexis C., et al. (författare) Genetic differences between suicide deaths and deaths of undetermined intent 2023 Ingår i: Suicide and Life-Threatening Behavior. - : Wiley. - 0363-0234 .- 1943-278X. ; 53:1, s. 100-109 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Introduction: Few, if any, prior studies have considered whether undetermined intent (UDI) deaths and suicide deaths differ with respect to genetic liability for suicidal behavior or psychopathology. Methods: The authors used Swedish national registry data to identify suicide deaths (N = 31,835) and UDI deaths (N = 10,623); sociodemographic covariates; and registrations for psychopathology. Family genetic risk scores (FGRS) were derived for each form of psychopathology. The authors used LASSO models to assess genetic and phenotypic differences across outcomes. Results: In the multivariate LASSO regressions, higher FGRS for major depression, bipolar disorder, and suicide death were associated with lower odds of UDI relative to unambiguous suicide (OR = 0.91–0.95), while those for alcohol and drug use disorders, ADHD, and criminal behavior were associated with higher odds of UDI relative to unambiguous suicide (OR = 1.04–1.12). When the corresponding phenotypic registration status for these outcomes was included in a subsequent model, the associations were attenuated and of small magnitude, but many remained different from OR = 1. Conclusions: Aggregate genetic differences between unambiguous suicide decedents and UDI deaths are small, particularly when accounting for psychiatric comorbidity, but in some cases, statistically significant. These findings suggest that different analytic treatment of UDI deaths may be warranted depending on the research question. Replication in other samples, and using molecular genetic data, is necessary.
42.	Edwards, Alexis C., et al. (författare) Oral contraceptive use and risk of suicidal behavior among young women 2022 Ingår i: Psychological Medicine. - 0033-2917. ; 52:9, s. 1710-1717 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background. Oral contraceptive use has been previously associated with an increased risk of suicidal behavior in some, but not all, samples. The use of large, representative, longitudinally-assessed samples may clarify the nature of this potential association. Methods. We used Swedish national registries to identify women born between 1991 and 1995 (N = 216 702) and determine whether they retrieved prescriptions for oral contraceptives. We used Cox proportional hazards models to test the association between contraceptive use and first observed suicidal event (suicide attempt or death) from age 15 until the end of follow-up in 2014 (maximum age 22.4). We adjusted for covariates, including mental illness and parental history of suicide. Results. In a crude model, use of combination or progestin-only oral contraceptives was positively associated with suicidal behavior, with hazard ratios (HRs) of 1.73-2.78 after 1 month of use, and 1.25-1.82 after 1 year of use. Accounting for sociodemographic, parental, and psychiatric variables attenuated these associations, and risks declined with increasing duration of use: adjusted HRs ranged from 1.56 to 2.13 1 month beyond the initiation of use, and from 1.19 to 1.48 1 year after initiation of use. HRs were higher among women who ceased use during the observation period. Conclusions. Young women using oral contraceptives may be at increased risk of suicidal behavior, but risk declines with increased duration of use. Analysis of former users suggests that women susceptible to depression/anxiety are more likely to cease hormonal contraceptive use. Additional studies are necessary to determine whether the observed association is attributable to a causal mechanism.
43.	Edwards, Alexis C., et al. (författare) Shared genetic and environmental etiology between substance use disorders and suicidal behavior 2023 Ingår i: Psychological Medicine. - 0033-2917. ; 53:6, s. 2380-2388 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background Previous studies have demonstrated substantial associations between substance use disorders (SUD) and suicidal behavior. The current study empirically assesses the extent to which shared genetic and/or environmental factors contribute to associations between alcohol use disorders (AUD) or drug use disorders (DUD) and suicidal behavior, including attempts and death. Methods The authors used Swedish national registry data, including medical, pharmacy, criminal, and death registrations, for a large cohort of twins, full siblings, and half siblings (N = 1 314 990) born 1960-1980 and followed through 2017. They conducted twin-sibling modeling of suicide attempt (SA) or suicide death (SD) with AUD and DUD to estimate genetic and environmental correlations between outcomes. Analyses were stratified by sex. Results Genetic correlations between SA and SUD ranged from rA = 0.60-0.88; corresponding shared environmental correlations were rC = 0.42-0.89 but accounted for little overall variance; and unique environmental correlations were rE = 0.42-0.57. When replacing attempt with SD, genetic and shared environmental correlations with AUD and DUD were comparable (rA = 0.48-0.72, rC = 0.92-1.00), but were attenuated for unique environmental factors (rE = -0.01 to 0.31). Conclusions These findings indicate that shared genetic and unique environmental factors contribute to comorbidity of suicidal behavior and SUD, in conjunction with previously reported causal associations. Thus, each outcome should be considered an indicator of risk for the others. Opportunities for joint prevention and intervention, while limited by the polygenic nature of these outcomes, may be feasible considering moderate environmental correlations between SA and SUD.
44.	Edwards, Alexis C., et al. (författare) The role of substance use disorders in the transition from suicide attempt to suicide death : a record linkage study of a Swedish cohort 2024 Ingår i: Psychological Medicine. - 1469-8978. ; 54:1, s. 90-97 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract BACKGROUND: Suicidal behavior and substance use disorders (SUDs) are important public health concerns. Prior suicide attempts and SUDs are two of the most consistent predictors of suicide death, and clarifying the role of SUDs in the transition from suicide attempt to suicide death could inform prevention efforts. METHODS: We used national Swedish registry data to identify individuals born 1960-1985, with an index suicide attempt in 1997-2017 (N = 74 873; 46.7% female). We assessed risk of suicide death as a function of registration for a range of individual SUDs. We further examined whether the impact of SUDs varied as a function of (i) aggregate genetic liability to suicidal behavior, or (ii) age at index suicide attempt. RESULTS: In univariate models, risk of suicide death was higher among individuals with any SUD registration [hazard ratios (HRs) = 2.68-3.86]. In multivariate models, effects of specific SUDs were attenuated, but remained elevated for AUD (HR = 1.86 95% confidence intervals 1.68-2.05), opiates [HR = 1.58 (1.37-1.82)], sedatives [HR = 1.93 (1.70-2.18)], and multiple substances [HR = 2.09 (1.86-2.35)]. In secondary analyses, the effects of most, but not all, SUD were exacerbated by higher levels of genetic liability to suicide death, and among individuals who were younger at their index suicide attempt. CONCLUSIONS: In the presence of a strong predictor of suicide death - a prior attempt - substantial predictive power is still attributable to SUDs. Individuals with SUDs may warrant additional suicide screening and prevention efforts, particularly in the context of a family history of suicidal behavior or early onset of suicide attempt.
45.	Edwards, AC, et al. (författare) On the Genetic and Environmental Relationship Between Suicide Attempt and Death by Suicide 2021 Ingår i: The American journal of psychiatry. - : American Psychiatric Association Publishing. - 1535-7228 .- 0002-953X. ; 178:11, s. 1060-1069 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
46.	Fortunato, Caroline S., et al. (författare) Determining indicator taxa across spatial and seasonal gradients in the Columbia River coastal margin 2013 Ingår i: The ISME Journal. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1751-7362 .- 1751-7370. ; 7:10, s. 1899-1911 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Bacterioplankton communities are deeply diverse and highly variable across space and time, but several recent studies demonstrate repeatable and predictable patterns in this diversity. We expanded on previous studies by determining patterns of variability in both individual taxa and bacterial communities across coastal environmental gradients. We surveyed bacterioplankton diversity across the Columbia River coastal margin, USA, using amplicon pyrosequencing of 16S rRNA genes from 596 water samples collected from 2007 to 2010. Our results showed seasonal shifts and annual reassembly of bacterioplankton communities in the freshwater-influenced Columbia River, estuary, and plume, and identified indicator taxa, including species from freshwater SAR11, Oceanospirillales, and Flavobacteria groups, that characterize the changing seasonal conditions in these environments. In the river and estuary, Actinobacteria and Betaproteobacteria indicator taxa correlated strongly with seasonal fluctuations in particulate organic carbon (ρ=−0.664) and residence time (ρ=0.512), respectively. In contrast, seasonal change in communities was not detected in the coastal ocean and varied more with the spatial variability of environmental factors including temperature and dissolved oxygen. Indicator taxa of coastal ocean environments included SAR406 and SUP05 taxa from the deep ocean, andProchlorococcus and SAR11 taxa from the upper water column. We found that in the Columbia River coastal margin, freshwater-influenced environments were consistent and predictable, whereas coastal ocean community variability was difficult to interpret due to complex physical conditions. This study moves beyond beta-diversity patterns to focus on the occurrence of specific taxa and lends insight into the potential ecological roles these taxa have in coastal ocean environments.
47.	Högström, G., et al. (författare) Aerobic fitness in late adolescence and the risk of cancer and cancer-associated mortality in adulthood : A prospective nationwide study of 1.2 million Swedish men 2019 Ingår i: Cancer Epidemiology. - : Elsevier BV. - 1877-7821 .- 1877-783X. ; 59, s. 58-63 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Background: The incidence of cancer has steadily risen. It is important to identify modifiable predictors in early life that may decrease cancer risks and mortality. The present study aims to investigate the relationship between aerobic fitness in adolescence and the subsequent risk of cancer and cancer-associated mortality. Methods: The study included 1 185 439 Swedish men born between 1950 and 1980 that participated in the military conscription (mean age = 18 years). The results from the aerobic fitness test (Wmax) was linked to the risk of cancer and cancer-associated mortality during a 40-years’ follow-up using Cox proportional hazards models. A co-sibling design was employed to take familial factors into account. Results: During a mean follow-up of 27 years 15 093 cases of cancer and 4900 cancer-associated mortalities were registered. Higher Wmax (per additional 1 SD) was associated with a decreased risk of cancer at 40 years of follow-up (HR 0.93; 95% CI 0.91–0.96 for cancer and HR 0.82 95% CI 0.76–0.87 for cancer-associated mortality) but not at 5 years of follow-up (HR 1.03; 95% CI 0.99–1.07; and HR 1.04; 95% CI 0.97–1.12). In the co-sibling model the protective effects of high Wmax were increased at 40 years of follow-up for cancer (HR 0.91; 95% CI 0.85–0.98) and cancer-associated mortality (HR 0.78; 95% CI 0.68–0.89). Conclusions: These findings identify in late adolescence a potentially modifiable predictor of cancer, with higher aerobic fitness associated with a decreased risk of cancer incidence and mortality later in life.
48.	Kohonen, P, et al. (författare) The ToxBank Data Warehouse: Supporting the Replacement of In Vivo Repeated Dose Systemic Toxicity Testing 2013 Ingår i: Molecular informatics. - : Wiley. - 1868-1743. ; 32:1, s. 47-63 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
49.	Wändell, Per, et al. (författare) Hypertension in Pregnancy Among Immigrant and Swedish Women : A Cohort Study of All Pregnant Women in Sweden 2024 Ingår i: Journal of the American Heart Association. - 2047-9980. ; 13:5 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract BACKGROUND: Little is known about risks of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy in both first-and second-generation immigrant women in Europe and other Western countries; such knowledge may help elucidate the influence of genetic versus social factors on such risks. We aimed to study both first-and second-generation immigrant women for the presence of all types of hypertension (preexisting hypertension, gestational hypertension, preeclampsia, and eclampsia) during pregnancy. METHODS AND RESULTS: A cohort study was conducted using data derived from the Swedish National Birth Register, the National Patient Register, and the Total Population Register. We used Cox regression analysis to compute hazard ratios (HRs) and 99% CIs while adjusting for sociodemographic factors and comorbidities. The first-generation study included a total of 1 084 212 deliveries and 68 311 hypertension cases, and the second-generation study included 989 986 deliveries and 67 505 hypertension cases. The fully adjusted HR (with 99% CI) for hypertension in pregnancy among first-generation immigrant women was 0.69 (0.66–0.72), and among second-generation immigrant women, it was 0.88 (0.86–0.91), compared with Swedish-born women with 2 Swedish-born parents. Women born in Finland or with parent(s) from Finland had higher risks, with fully adjusted HRs (99% CIs) of 1.30 (1.18–1.43) and 1.12 (1.07–1.17), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Both first-and second-generation immigrant women had overall lower risks of hypertension in pregnancy compared with other Swedish women. However, the risk reduction was less pronounced in second-generation compared with first-generation immigrant women, suggesting that environmental factors in Sweden may have an important influence on risk of hypertension during pregnancy.
50.	Zielinski, Brian L., et al. (författare) Patterns of Transcript Abundance of Eukaryotic Biogeochemically-Relevant Genes in the Amazon River Plume 2016 Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 11:9 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract The Amazon River has the largest discharge of all rivers on Earth, and its complex plume system fuels a wide array of biogeochemical processes, across a large area of the western tropical North Atlantic. The plume thus stimulates microbial processes affecting carbon sequestration and nutrient cycles at a global scale. Chromosomal gene expression patterns of the 2.0 to 156 mu m size-fraction eukaryotic microbial community were investigated in the Amazon River Plume, generating a robust dataset (more than 100 million mRNA sequences) that depicts the metabolic capabilities and interactions among the eukaryotic microbes. Combining classical oceanographic field measurements with metatranscriptomics yielded characterization of the hydrographic conditions simultaneous with a quantification of transcriptional activity and identity of the community. We highlight the patterns of eukaryotic gene expression for 31 biogeochemically significant gene targets hypothesized to be valuable within forecasting models. An advantage to this targeted approach is that the database of reference sequences used to identify the target genes was selectively constructed and highly curated optimizing taxonomic coverage, throughput, and the accuracy of annotations. A coastal diatom bloom highly expressed nitrate transporters and carbonic anhydrase presumably to support high growth rates and enhance uptake of low levels of dissolved nitrate and CO2. Diatom-diazotroph association (DDA: diatoms with nitrogen fixing symbionts) blooms were common when surface salinity was mesohaline and dissolved nitrate concentrations were below detection, and hence did not show evidence of nitrate utilization, suggesting they relied on ammonium transporters to aquire recently fixed nitrogen. These DDA blooms in the outer plume had rapid turnover of the photosystem D1 protein presumably caused by photodegradation under increased light penetration in clearer waters, and increased expression of silicon transporters as silicon became limiting. Expression of these genes, including carbonic anhydrase and transporters for nitrate and phosphate, were found to reflect the physiological status and biogeochemistry of river plume environments. These relatively stable patterns of eukaryotic transcript abundance occurred over modest spatiotemporal scales, with similarity observed in sample duplicates collected up to 2.45 km in space and 120 minutes in time. These results confirm the use of metatranscriptomics as a valuable tool to understand and predict microbial community function.

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