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1.
  • Blunden, Jessica, et al. (författare)
  • State of the Climate in 2012
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 94:8, s. S1-S258
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • For the first time in serveral years, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation did not dominate regional climate conditions around the globe. A weak La Ni a dissipated to ENSOneutral conditions by spring, and while El Nino appeared to be emerging during summer, this phase never fully developed as sea surface temperatures in the eastern conditions. Nevertheless, other large-scale climate patterns and extreme weather events impacted various regions during the year. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation from mid-January to early February contributed to frigid conditions in parts of northern Africa, eastern Europe, and western Asia. A lack of rain during the 2012 wet season led to the worst drought in at least the past three decades for northeastern Brazil. Central North America also experienced one of its most severe droughts on record. The Caribbean observed a very wet dry season and it was the Sahel's wettest rainy season in 50 years. Overall, the 2012 average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces ranked among the 10 warmest years on record. The global land surface temperature alone was also among the 10 warmest on record. In the upper atmosphere, the average stratospheric temperature was record or near-record cold, depending on the dataset. After a 30-year warming trend from 1970 to 1999 for global sea surface temperatures, the period 2000-12 had little further trend. This may be linked to the prevalence of La Ni a-like conditions during the 21st century. Heat content in the upper 700 m of the ocean remained near record high levels in 2012. Net increases from 2011 to 2012 were observed at 700-m to 2000-m depth and even in the abyssal ocean below. Following sharp decreases in to the effects of La Ni a, sea levels rebounded to reach records highs in 2012. The increased hydrological cycle seen in recent years continued, with more evaporation in drier locations and more precipitation in rainy areas. In a pattern that has held since 2004, salty areas of the ocean surfaces and subsurfaces were anomalously salty on average, while fresher areas were anomalously fresh. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2012 was near average, with a total of 84 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010 and 2011, the North Atlantic was the only hurricane basin that experienced above-normal activity. In this basin, Sandy brought devastation to Cuba and parts of the eastern North American seaboard. All other basins experienced either near-or below-normal tropical cyclone activity. Only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity-all in Bopha became the only storm in the historical record to produce winds greater than 130 kt south of 7 N. It was also the costliest storm to affect the Philippines and killed more than 1000 residents. Minimum Arctic sea ice extent in September and Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in June both reached new record lows. June snow cover extent is now declining at a faster rate (-17.6% per decade) than September sea ice extent (-13.0% per decade). Permafrost temperatures reached record high values in northernmost Alaska. A new melt extent record occurred on 11-12 July on the Greenland ice sheet; 97% of the ice sheet showed some form of melt, four times greater than the average melt for this time of year. The climate in Antarctica was relatively stable overall. The largest maximum sea ice extent since records begain in 1978 was observed in September 2012. In the stratosphere, warm air led to the second smallest ozone hole in the past two decades. Even so, the springtime ozone layer above Antarctica likely will not return to its early 1980s state until about 2060. Following a slight decline associated with the global 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reached a record 9.5 +/- 0.5 Pg C in 2011 and a new record of 9.7 +/- 0.5 Pg C is estimated for 2012. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by 2.1 ppm in 2012, to 392.6 ppm. In spring 2012, 2 concentration exceeded 400 ppm at 7 of the 13 Arctic observation sites. Globally, other greenhouse gases including methane and nitrous oxide also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 32% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Concentrations of most ozone depleting substances continued to fall.
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2.
  • 2019
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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3.
  • Lozano, Rafael, et al. (författare)
  • Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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4.
  • Naghavi, Mohsen, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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5.
  • Falster, Daniel, et al. (författare)
  • AusTraits, a curated plant trait database for the Australian flora
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Scientific Data. - : Nature Portfolio. - 2052-4463. ; 8:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We introduce the AusTraits database - a compilation of values of plant traits for taxa in the Australian flora (hereafter AusTraits). AusTraits synthesises data on 448 traits across 28,640 taxa from field campaigns, published literature, taxonomic monographs, and individual taxon descriptions. Traits vary in scope from physiological measures of performance (e.g. photosynthetic gas exchange, water-use efficiency) to morphological attributes (e.g. leaf area, seed mass, plant height) which link to aspects of ecological variation. AusTraits contains curated and harmonised individual- and species-level measurements coupled to, where available, contextual information on site properties and experimental conditions. This article provides information on version 3.0.2 of AusTraits which contains data for 997,808 trait-by-taxon combinations. We envision AusTraits as an ongoing collaborative initiative for easily archiving and sharing trait data, which also provides a template for other national or regional initiatives globally to fill persistent gaps in trait knowledge.
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6.
  • Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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7.
  • Azevedo, Flavio, et al. (författare)
  • Social and moral psychology of COVID-19 across 69 countries
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Scientific Data. - : NATURE PORTFOLIO. - 2052-4463. ; 10:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all domains of human life, including the economic and social fabric of societies. One of the central strategies for managing public health throughout the pandemic has been through persuasive messaging and collective behaviour change. To help scholars better understand the social and moral psychology behind public health behaviour, we present a dataset comprising of 51,404 individuals from 69 countries. This dataset was collected for the International Collaboration on Social & Moral Psychology of COVID-19 project (ICSMP COVID-19). This social science survey invited participants around the world to complete a series of moral and psychological measures and public health attitudes about COVID-19 during an early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic (between April and June 2020). The survey included seven broad categories of questions: COVID-19 beliefs and compliance behaviours; identity and social attitudes; ideology; health and well-being; moral beliefs and motivation; personality traits; and demographic variables. We report both raw and cleaned data, along with all survey materials, data visualisations, and psychometric evaluations of key variables.
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8.
  • Murray, Christopher J. L., et al. (författare)
  • Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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9.
  • Van Bavel, Jay J., et al. (författare)
  • National identity predicts public health support during a global pandemic
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Nature Portfolio. - 2041-1723. ; 13:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Understanding collective behaviour is an important aspect of managing the pandemic response. Here the authors show in a large global study that participants that reported identifying more strongly with their nation reported greater engagement in public health behaviours and support for public health policies in the context of the pandemic. Changing collective behaviour and supporting non-pharmaceutical interventions is an important component in mitigating virus transmission during a pandemic. In a large international collaboration (Study 1, N = 49,968 across 67 countries), we investigated self-reported factors associated with public health behaviours (e.g., spatial distancing and stricter hygiene) and endorsed public policy interventions (e.g., closing bars and restaurants) during the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic (April-May 2020). Respondents who reported identifying more strongly with their nation consistently reported greater engagement in public health behaviours and support for public health policies. Results were similar for representative and non-representative national samples. Study 2 (N = 42 countries) conceptually replicated the central finding using aggregate indices of national identity (obtained using the World Values Survey) and a measure of actual behaviour change during the pandemic (obtained from Google mobility reports). Higher levels of national identification prior to the pandemic predicted lower mobility during the early stage of the pandemic (r = -0.40). We discuss the potential implications of links between national identity, leadership, and public health for managing COVID-19 and future pandemics.
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10.
  • Couch, Fergus J., et al. (författare)
  • Identification of four novel susceptibility loci for oestrogen receptor negative breast cancer
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP. - 2041-1723. ; 7:11375, s. 1-13
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Common variants in 94 loci have been associated with breast cancer including 15 loci with genome-wide significant associations (P<5 x 10(-8)) with oestrogen receptor (ER)-negative breast cancer and BRCA1-associated breast cancer risk. In this study, to identify new ER-negative susceptibility loci, we performed a meta-analysis of 11 genome-wide association studies (GWAS) consisting of 4,939 ER-negative cases and 14,352 controls, combined with 7,333 ER-negative cases and 42,468 controls and 15,252 BRCA1 mutation carriers genotyped on the iCOGS array. We identify four previously unidentified loci including two loci at 13q22 near KLF5, a 2p23.2 locus near WDR43 and a 2q33 locus near PPIL3 that display genome-wide significant associations with ER-negative breast cancer. In addition, 19 known breast cancer risk loci have genome-wide significant associations and 40 had moderate associations (P<0.05) with ER-negative disease. Using functional and eQTL studies we implicate TRMT61B and WDR43 at 2p23.2 and PPIL3 at 2q33 in ER-negative breast cancer aetiology. All ER-negative loci combined account for similar to 11% of familial relative risk for ER-negative disease and may contribute to improved ER-negative and BRCA1 breast cancer risk prediction.
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11.
  • Hudson, Lawrence N, et al. (författare)
  • The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Ecology and Evolution. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 2045-7758. ; 7:1, s. 145-188
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.
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12.
  • Shu, Xiang, et al. (författare)
  • Associations of obesity and circulating insulin and glucose with breast cancer risk : a Mendelian randomization analysis
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Epidemiology. - : OXFORD UNIV PRESS. - 0300-5771 .- 1464-3685. ; 48:3, s. 795-806
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: In addition to the established association between general obesity and breast cancer risk, central obesity and circulating fasting insulin and glucose have been linked to the development of this common malignancy. Findings from previous studies, however, have been inconsistent, and the nature of the associations is unclear. Methods: We conducted Mendelian randomization analyses to evaluate the association of breast cancer risk, using genetic instruments, with fasting insulin, fasting glucose, 2-h glucose, body mass index (BMI) and BMI-adjusted waist-hip-ratio (WHRadj BMI). We first confirmed the association of these instruments with type 2 diabetes risk in a large diabetes genome-wide association study consortium. We then investigated their associations with breast cancer risk using individual-level data obtained from 98 842 cases and 83 464 controls of European descent in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Results: All sets of instruments were associated with risk of type 2 diabetes. Associations with breast cancer risk were found for genetically predicted fasting insulin [odds ratio (OR) = 1.71 per standard deviation (SD) increase, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.26-2.31, p = 5.09 x 10(-4)], 2-h glucose (OR = 1.80 per SD increase, 95% CI = 1.3 0-2.49, p = 4.02 x 10(-4)), BMI (OR = 0.70 per 5-unit increase, 95% CI = 0.65-0.76, p = 5.05 x 10(-19)) and WHRadj BMI (OR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.79-0.91, p = 9.22 x 10(-6)). Stratified analyses showed that genetically predicted fasting insulin was more closely related to risk of estrogen-receptor [ER]-positive cancer, whereas the associations with instruments of 2h glucose, BMI and WHRadj BMI were consistent regardless of age, menopausal status, estrogen receptor status and family history of breast cancer. Conclusions: We confirmed the previously reported inverse association of genetically predicted BMI with breast cancer risk, and showed a positive association of genetically predicted fasting insulin and 2-h glucose and an inverse association of WHRadj BMI with breast cancer risk. Our study suggests that genetically determined obesity and glucose/insulin-related traits have an important role in the aetiology of breast cancer.
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13.
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14.
  • Abbafati, Cristiana, et al. (författare)
  • 2020
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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15.
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16.
  • Aughton, Karen, et al. (författare)
  • hENT1 Predicts Benefit from Gemcitabine in Pancreatic Cancer but Only with Low CDA mRNA
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Cancers. - : MDPI. - 2072-6694. ; 13:22
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Gemcitabine or 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) based treatments can be selected for pancreatic cancer. Equilibrative nucleoside transporter 1 (hENT1) predicts adjuvant gemcitabine treatment benefit over 5-FU. Cytidine deaminase (CDA), inside or outside of the cancer cell, will deaminate gemcitabine, altering transporter affinity. ESPAC-3(v2) was a pancreatic cancer trial comparing adjuvant gemcitabine and 5-FU. Tissue microarray sections underwent in situ hybridization and immunohistochemistry. Analysis of both CDA and hENT1 was possible with 277 patients. The transcript did not correlate with protein levels for either marker. High hENT1 protein was prognostic with gemcitabine; median overall survival was 26.0 v 16.8 months (p = 0.006). Low CDA transcript was prognostic regardless of arm; 24.8 v 21.2 months with gemcitabine (p = 0.02) and 26.4 v 14.6 months with 5-FU (p = 0.02). Patients with low hENT1 protein did better with 5-FU, but only if the CDA transcript was low (median survival of 5-FU v gemcitabine; 29.3 v 18.3 months, compared with 14.2 v 14.6 with high CDA). CDA mRNA is an independent prognostic biomarker. When added to hENT1 protein status, it may also provide treatment-specific predictive information and, within the frame of a personalized treatment strategy, guide to either gemcitabine or 5FU for the individual patient.Simple Summary:Recent clinical trials suggest that combination therapies that include either gemcitabine or 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) both give significant survival benefits for pancreatic cancer patients. The tumor level of the nucleoside transporter hENT1 is prognostic in patients treated with adjuvant gemcitabine but not adjuvant 5-FU. This work shows for the first time that hENT1 is only predictive of benefit from gemcitabine over 5-FU in patients with low levels of CDA transcript. A choice between adjuvant 5-FU based combination therapies (such as FOLFIRINOX) and gemcitabine-based therapy (e.g., GemCap) could be made based on a combination of hENT1 protein and CDA mRNA measured in a resected tumor.
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17.
  • Bayani, Jane, et al. (författare)
  • Evaluation of multiple transcriptomic gene risk signatures in male breast cancer
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: npj Breast Cancer. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2374-4677. ; 7:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Male breast cancer (BCa) is a rare disease accounting for less than 1% of all breast cancers and 1% of all cancers in males. The clinical management is largely extrapolated from female BCa. Several multigene assays are increasingly used to guide clinical treatment decisions in female BCa, however, there are limited data on the utility of these tests in male BCa. Here we present the gene expression results of 381 M0, ER+ve, HER2-ve male BCa patients enrolled in the Part 1 (retrospective analysis) of the International Male Breast Cancer Program. Using a custom NanoString™ panel comprised of the genes from the commercial risk tests Prosigna®, OncotypeDX®, and MammaPrint®, risk scores and intrinsic subtyping data were generated to recapitulate the commercial tests as described by us previously. We also examined the prognostic value of other risk scores such as the Genomic Grade Index (GGI), IHC4-mRNA and our prognostic 95-gene signature. In this sample set of male BCa, we demonstrated prognostic utility on univariate analysis. Across all signatures, patients whose samples were identified as low-risk experienced better outcomes than intermediate-risk, with those classed as high risk experiencing the poorest outcomes. As seen with female BCa, the concordance between tests was poor, with C-index values ranging from 40.3% to 78.2% and Kappa values ranging from 0.17 to 0.58. To our knowledge, this is the largest study of male breast cancers assayed to generate risk scores of the current commercial and academic risk tests demonstrating comparable clinical utility to female BCa.
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18.
  • Bellm, Eric C., et al. (författare)
  • The Zwicky Transient Facility : System Overview, Performance, and First Results
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific. - : IOP Publishing. - 0004-6280 .- 1538-3873. ; 131:995
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) is a new optical time-domain survey that uses the Palomar 48 inch Schmidt telescope. A custom-built wide-field camera provides a 47 deg(2) field of view and 8 s readout time, yielding more than an order of magnitude improvement in survey speed relative to its predecessor survey, the Palomar Transient Factory. We describe the design and implementation of the camera and observing system. The ZTF data system at the Infrared Processing and Analysis Center provides near-real-time reduction to identify moving and varying objects. We outline the analysis pipelines, data products, and associated archive. Finally, we present on-sky performance analysis and first scientific results from commissioning and the early survey. ZTF's public alert stream will serve as a useful precursor for that of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope.
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19.
  • Berndt, Sonja I., et al. (författare)
  • Genome-wide association study identifies multiple risk loci for chronic lymphocytic leukemia
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 45:8, s. 868-U202
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have previously identified 13 loci associated with risk of chronic lymphocytic leukemia or small lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL). To identify additional CLL susceptibility loci, we conducted the largest meta-analysis for CLL thus far, including four GWAS with a total of 3,100 individuals with CLL (cases) and 7,667 controls. In the meta-analysis, we identified ten independent associated SNPs in nine new loci at 10q23.31 (ACTA2 or FAS (ACTA2/FAS), P = 1.22 x 10(-14)), 18q21.33 (BCL2, P = 7.76 x 10(-11)), 11p15.5 (C11orf21, P = 2.15 x 10(-10)), 4q25 (LEF1, P = 4.24 x 10(-10)), 2q33.1 (CASP10 or CASP8 (CASP10/CASP8), P = 2.50 x 10(-9)), 9p21.3 (CDKN2B-AS1, P = 1.27 x 10(-8)), 18q21.32 (PMAIP1, P = 2.51 x 10(-8)), 15q15.1 (BMF, P = 2.71 x 10(-10)) and 2p22.2 (QPCT, P = 1.68 x 10(-8)), as well as an independent signal at an established locus (2q13, ACOXL, P = 2.08 x 10(-18)). We also found evidence for two additional promising loci below genome-wide significance at 8q22.3 (ODF1, P = 5.40 x 10(-8)) and 5p15.33 (TERT, P = 1.92 x 10(-7)). Although further studies are required, the proximity of several of these loci to genes involved in apoptosis suggests a plausible underlying biological mechanism.
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20.
  • Berndt, Sonja I., et al. (författare)
  • Meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies discovers multiple loci for chronic lymphocytic leukemia
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 7
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is a common lymphoid malignancy with strong heritability. To further understand the genetic susceptibility for CLL and identify common loci associated with risk, we conducted a meta-analysis of four genome-wide association studies (GWAS) composed of 3,100 cases and 7,667 controls with follow-up replication in 1,958 cases and 5,530 controls. Here we report three new loci at 3p24.1 (rs9880772, EOMES, P = 2.55 x 10(-11)), 6p25.2 (rs73718779, SERPINB6, P = 1.97 x 10(-8)) and 3q28 (rs9815073, LPP, P = 3.62 x 10(-8)), as well as a new independent SNP at the known 2q13 locus (rs9308731, BCL2L11, P = 1.00 x 10(-11)) in the combined analysis. We find suggestive evidence (P<5 x 10(-7)) for two additional new loci at 4q24 (rs10028805, BANK1, P = 7.19 x 10(-8)) and 3p22.2 (rs1274963, CSRNP1, P = 2.12 x 10(-7)). Pathway analyses of new and known CLL loci consistently show a strong role for apoptosis, providing further evidence for the importance of this biological pathway in CLL susceptibility.
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21.
  • Davies, Thomas G., et al. (författare)
  • Open data and digital morphology.
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences. - : The Royal Society. - 0962-8452 .- 1471-2954. ; 284:1852, s. 1-10
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Over the past two decades, the development of methods for visualizing and analysing specimens digitally, in three and even four dimensions, has transformed the study of living and fossil organisms. However, the initial promise that the widespread application of such methods would facilitate access to the underlying digital data has not been fully achieved. The underlying datasets for many published studies are not readily or freely available, introducing a barrier to verification and reproducibility, and the reuse of data. There is no current agreement or policy on the amount and type of data that should be made available alongside studies that use, and in some cases are wholly reliant on, digital morphology. Here, we propose a set of recommendations for minimum standards and additional best practice for three-dimensional digital data publication, and review the issues around data storage, management and accessibility.
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22.
  • Eron, Joseph J., et al. (författare)
  • Week 96 efficacy and safety results of the phase 3, randomized EMERALD trial to evaluate switching from boosted-protease inhibitors plus emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate regimens to the once daily, single-tablet regimen of darunavir/cobicistat/emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide (D/C/F/TAF) in treatment-experienced, virologically-suppressed adults living with HIV-1
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Antiviral Research. - : Elsevier BV. - 0166-3542 .- 1872-9096. ; 170
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • © 2019 The Authors Darunavir/cobicistat/emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide (D/C/F/TAF) 800/150/200/10 mg was investigated through 96 weeks in EMERALD (NCT02269917). Virologically-suppressed, HIV-1-positive treatment-experienced adults (previous non-darunavir virologic failure [VF] allowed) were randomized (2:1) to D/C/F/TAF or boosted protease inhibitor (PI) plus emtricitabine/tenofovir-disoproxil-fumarate (F/TDF) over 48 weeks. At week 52 participants in the boosted PI arm were offered switch to D/C/F/TAF (late-switch, 44 weeks D/C/F/TAF exposure). All participants were followed on D/C/F/TAF until week 96. Efficacy endpoints were percentage cumulative protocol-defined virologic rebound (PDVR; confirmed viral load [VL] ≥50 copies/mL) and VL < 50 copies/mL (virologic suppression) and ≥50 copies/mL (VF) (FDA-snapshot analysis). Of 1141 randomized patients, 1080 continued in the extension phase. Few patients had PDVR (D/C/F/TAF: 3.1%, 24/763 cumulative through week 96; late-switch: 2.3%, 8/352 week 52–96). Week 96 virologic suppression was 90.7% (692/763) (D/C/F/TAF) and 93.8% (330/352) (late-switch). VF was 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively. No darunavir, primary PI, tenofovir or emtricitabine resistance-associated mutations were observed post-baseline. No patients discontinued for efficacy-related reasons. Few discontinued due to adverse events (2% D/C/F/TAF arm). Improved renal and bone parameters were maintained in the D/C/F/TAF arm and observed in the late-switch arm, with small increases in total cholesterol/high-density-lipoprotein-cholesterol ratio. A study limitation was the lack of a control arm in the week 96 analysis. Through 96 weeks, D/C/F/TAF resulted in low PDVR rates, high virologic suppression rates, very few VFs, and no resistance development. Late-switch results were consistent with D/C/F/TAF week 48 results. EMERALD week 96 results confirm the efficacy, high genetic barrier to resistance and safety benefits of D/C/F/TAF.
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23.
  • Hollestelle, Antoinette, et al. (författare)
  • No clinical utility of KRAS variant rs61764370 for ovarian or breast cancer
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Gynecologic Oncology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0090-8258 .- 1095-6859. ; 141:2, s. 386-401
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objective Clinical genetic testing is commercially available for rs61764370, an inherited variant residing in a KRAS 3′ UTR microRNA binding site, based on suggested associations with increased ovarian and breast cancer risk as well as with survival time. However, prior studies, emphasizing particular subgroups, were relatively small. Therefore, we comprehensively evaluated ovarian and breast cancer risks as well as clinical outcome associated with rs61764370. Methods Centralized genotyping and analysis were performed for 140,012 women enrolled in the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (15,357 ovarian cancer patients; 30,816 controls), the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (33,530 breast cancer patients; 37,640 controls), and the Consortium of Modifiers of BRCA1 and BRCA2 (14,765 BRCA1 and 7904 BRCA2 mutation carriers). Results We found no association with risk of ovarian cancer (OR = 0.99, 95% CI 0.94-1.04, p = 0.74) or breast cancer (OR = 0.98, 95% CI 0.94-1.01, p = 0.19) and results were consistent among mutation carriers (BRCA1, ovarian cancer HR = 1.09, 95% CI 0.97-1.23, p = 0.14, breast cancer HR = 1.04, 95% CI 0.97-1.12, p = 0.27; BRCA2, ovarian cancer HR = 0.89, 95% CI 0.71-1.13, p = 0.34, breast cancer HR = 1.06, 95% CI 0.94-1.19, p = 0.35). Null results were also obtained for associations with overall survival following ovarian cancer (HR = 0.94, 95% CI 0.83-1.07, p = 0.38), breast cancer (HR = 0.96, 95% CI 0.87-1.06, p = 0.38), and all other previously-reported associations. Conclusions rs61764370 is not associated with risk of ovarian or breast cancer nor with clinical outcome for patients with these cancers. Therefore, genotyping this variant has no clinical utility related to the prediction or management of these cancers.
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24.
  • Iveson, Timothy J., et al. (författare)
  • 3 versus 6 months of adjuvant oxaliplatin-fluoropyrimidine combination therapy for colorectal cancer (SCOT) : an international, randomised, phase 3, non-inferiority trial
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet Oncology. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC. - 1470-2045 .- 1474-5488. ; 19:4, s. 562-578
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: 6 months of oxaliplatin-containing chemotherapy is usually given as adjuvant treatment for stage 3 colorectal cancer. We investigated whether 3 months of oxaliplatin-containing chemotherapy would be non-inferior to the usual 6 months of treatment.Methods: The SCOT study was an international, randomised, phase 3, non-inferiority trial done at 244 centres. Patients aged 18 years or older with high-risk stage II and stage III colorectal cancer underwent central randomisation with minimisation for centre, choice of regimen, sex, disease site, N stage, T stage, and the starting dose of capecitabine. Patients were assigned (1: 1) to receive 3 months or 6 months of adjuvant oxaliplatin-containing chemotherapy. The chemotherapy regimens could consist of CAPOX (capecitabine and oxaliplatin) or FOLFOX (bolus and infused fluorouracil with oxaliplatin). The regimen was selected before randomisation in accordance with choices of the patient and treating physician. The primary study endpoint was disease-free survival and the non-inferiority margin was a hazard ratio of 1.13. The primary analysis was done in the intention-to-treat population and safety was assessed in patients who started study treatment. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, number ISRCTN59757862, and follow-up is continuing.Findings: 6088 patients underwent randomisation between March 27, 2008, and Nov 29, 2013. The intended treatment was FOLFOX in 1981 patients and CAPOX in 4107 patients. 3044 patients were assigned to 3 month group and 3044 were assigned to 6 month group. Nine patients in the 3 month group and 14 patients in the 6 month group did not consent for their data to be used, leaving 3035 patients in the 3 month group and 3030 patients in the 6 month group for the intention-to-treat analyses. At the cutoff date for analysis, there had been 1482 disease-free survival events, with 740 in the 3 month group and 742 in the 6 month group. 3 year disease-free survival was 76.7% (95% CI 75.1-78.2) for the 3 month group and 77.1% (75.6-78.6) for the 6 month group, giving a hazard ratio of 1.006 (0.909-1.114, test for non-inferiority p=0.012), significantly below the non-inferiority margin. Peripheral neuropathy of grade 2 or worse was more common in the 6 month group (237 [58%] of 409 patients for the subset with safety data) than in the 3 month group (103 [25%] of 420) and was long-lasting and associated with worse quality of life. 1098 serious adverse events were reported (492 reports in the 3 month group and 606 reports in the 6 month group) and 32 treatment-related deaths occurred (16 in each group).Interpretation: In the whole study population, 3 months of oxaliplatin-containing adjuvant chemotherapy was non-inferior to 6 months of the same therapy for patients with high-risk stage II and stage III colorectal cancer and was associated with reduced toxicity and improved quality of life. Despite the fact the study was underpowered, these data suggest that a shorter duration leads to similar survival outcomes with better quality of life and thus might represent a new standard of care.
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25.
  • Robles-Zurita, Jose, et al. (författare)
  • SCOT : a comparison of cost-effectiveness from a large randomised phase III trial of two durations of adjuvant Oxaliplatin combination chemotherapy for colorectal cancer
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: British Journal of Cancer. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0007-0920 .- 1532-1827. ; 119:11, s. 1332-1338
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: The Short Course Oncology Therapy (SCOT) study is an international, multicentre, non-inferiority randomised controlled trial assessing the efficacy, toxicity, and cost-effectiveness of 3 months (3 M) versus the usually given 6 months (6 M) of adjuvant chemotherapy in colorectal cancer.METHODS: In total, 6088 patients with fully resected high-risk stage II or stage III colorectal cancer were randomised and followed up for 3-8 years. The within-trial cost-effectiveness analysis from a UK health-care perspective is presented using the resource use data, quality of life (EQ-5D-3L), time on treatment (ToT), disease-free survival after treatment (DFS) and overall survival (OS) data. Quality-adjusted partitioned survival analysis and Kaplan-Meier Sample Average Estimator estimated QALYs and costs. Probabilistic sensitivity and subgroup analysis was undertaken.RESULTS: The 3M arm is less costly (-4881; pound 95% CI: -6269; pound -3492) pound and entails (non-significant) QALY gains (0.08; 95% CI: -0.086; 0.230) due to a better significant quality of life. The net monetary benefit was significantly higher in 3M under a wide range of monetary values of a QALY. The subgroup analysis found similar results for patients in the CAPOX regimen. However, for the FOLFOX regimen, 3M had lower QALYs than 6M (not statistically significant).CONCLUSIONS: Overall, 3M dominates 6M with no significant detrimental impact on QALYs. The results provide the economic case that a 3M treatment strategy should be considered a new standard of care.
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26.
  • Su, Zhan, et al. (författare)
  • Common variants at the MHC locus and at chromosome 16q24.1 predispose to Barrett's esophagus.
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 44:10
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Barrett's esophagus is an increasingly common disease that is strongly associated with reflux of stomach acid and usually a hiatus hernia, and it strongly predisposes to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), a tumor with a very poor prognosis. We report the first genome-wide association study on Barrett's esophagus, comprising 1,852 UK cases and 5,172 UK controls in the discovery stage and 5,986 cases and 12,825 controls in the replication stage. Variants at two loci were associated with disease risk: chromosome 6p21, rs9257809 (Pcombined=4.09×10(-9); odds ratio (OR)=1.21, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.13-1.28), within the major histocompatibility complex locus, and chromosome 16q24, rs9936833 (Pcombined=2.74×10(-10); OR=1.14, 95% CI=1.10-1.19), for which the closest protein-coding gene is FOXF1, which is implicated in esophageal development and structure. We found evidence that many common variants of small effect contribute to genetic susceptibility to Barrett's esophagus and that SNP alleles predisposing to obesity also increase risk for Barrett's esophagus.
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27.
  • Wang, Adam, et al. (författare)
  • Science and practice of imaging physics through 50 years of SPIE Medical Imaging conferences
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Journal of Medical Imaging. - : SPIE-Intl Soc Optical Eng. - 2329-4302 .- 2329-4310. ; 9:S1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Purpose: For 50 years now, SPIE Medical Imaging (MI) conferences have been the premier forum for disseminating and sharing new ideas, technologies, and concepts on the physics of MI. Approach: Our overarching objective is to demonstrate and highlight the major trajectories of imaging physics and how they are informed by the community and science present and presented at SPIE MI conferences from its inception to now. Results: These contributions range from the development of image science, image quality metrology, and image reconstruction to digital x-ray detectors that have revolutionized MI modalities including radiography, mammography, fluoroscopy, tomosynthesis, and computed tomography (CT). Recent advances in detector technology such as photon-counting detectors continue to enable new capabilities in MI. Conclusion: As we celebrate the past 50 years, we are also excited about what the next 50 years of SPIE MI will bring to the physics of MI.
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28.
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29.
  • Bengtson, Stefan, 1947-, et al. (författare)
  • A merciful death for the “earliest bilaterian,” Vernanimalcula.
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: Evolution and Development. - 1520-541X. ; 14:5, s. 421-427
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Fossils described as Vernanimalcula guizhouena, from the nearly 600 million-year-old Doushantuo Formation in South China, have been interpreted as the remains of bilaterian animals. As such they would represent the oldest putative record of bilaterian animals in Earth history, and they have been invoked in debate over this formative episode of early animal evolution. However, this interpretation is fallacious. We review the evidential basis of the biological interpretation of Vernanimalcula, concluding that the structures key to animal identity are effects of mineralization that do not represent biological tissues, and, furthermore, that it is not possible to derive its anatomical reconstruction on the basis of the available evidence. There is no evidential basis for interpreting Vernanimalcula as an animal, let alone a bilaterian. The conclusions of evolutionary studies that have relied upon the bilaterian interpretation of Vernanimalcula must be called into question.
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30.
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31.
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32.
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33.
  • Blomqvist, Jan, 1946-, et al. (författare)
  • How should substance use problems be handled? : popular views in Sweden, Finland, and Canada
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Drugs and Alcohol Today. - 1745-9265. ; 14:1, s. 19-30
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Purpose – Although the way in which, for example, substance use problems are conceived and reacted to (by experts and treatment professionals but also by the environment), can have vast consequences for those directly or indirectly concerned, there is little systematic knowledge about how various preferred approaches differ between types of problems and sociocultural settings. In an ambition to at least partly mend this gap, this paper aims to compare how the general public in Sweden, Finland, and Canada appraise four generically different approaches to dealing with substance use problems, as these are applied to problem use of alcohol, cannabis, heroin, and cigarettes.Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses data from three national surveys, aimed at uncovering how representative population samples from Sweden, Finland, and Canada perceive and understand the character of, and the proper way of handling, various addictive problems. Data from these surveys have been used to discern and operationalize four basic “models of helping and coping” as these have been outlined by Brickman et al. (1982). The analysis has aimed at investigating how the popular preferences for either of these models vary with type of addiction (to cigarettes, alcohol, cannabis, and other (“hard”) drugs, national setting, and potentially important respondent characteristics.Findings – The results point to large differences between the ways in which the general public understands the proper way of handling the four types of addiction, and shows, for example, that addiction to “hard” drugs is predominantly perceived as a matter for expert treatment, whereas smoking, or addiction to cigarettes, is more often perceived as a bad habit which the user is able to break on her/his own. In addition, the popularity of different handling models is found to vary between countries, and with personal characteristics such as gender, age, and substance use experiences.Originality/value – The study is one of few that have systematically tried to find out how various forms of substance use problems, or addiction, are conceived and reacted to in various national and social settings.
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34.
  • Botvinik-Nezer, Rotem, et al. (författare)
  • Variability in the analysis of a single neuroimaging dataset by many teams
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 582, s. 84-88
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Data analysis workflows in many scientific domains have become increasingly complex and flexible. Here we assess the effect of this flexibility on the results of functional magnetic resonance imaging by asking 70 independent teams to analyse the same dataset, testing the same 9 ex-ante hypotheses(1). The flexibility of analytical approaches is exemplified by the fact that no two teams chose identical workflows to analyse the data. This flexibility resulted in sizeable variation in the results of hypothesis tests, even for teams whose statistical maps were highly correlated at intermediate stages of the analysis pipeline. Variation in reported results was related to several aspects of analysis methodology. Notably, a meta-analytical approach that aggregated information across teams yielded a significant consensus in activated regions. Furthermore, prediction markets of researchers in the field revealed an overestimation of the likelihood of significant findings, even by researchers with direct knowledge of the dataset(2-5). Our findings show that analytical flexibility can have substantial effects on scientific conclusions, and identify factors that may be related to variability in the analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging. The results emphasize the importance of validating and sharing complex analysis workflows, and demonstrate the need for performing and reporting multiple analyses of the same data. Potential approaches that could be used to mitigate issues related to analytical variability are discussed. The results obtained by seventy different teams analysing the same functional magnetic resonance imaging dataset show substantial variation, highlighting the influence of analytical choices and the importance of sharing workflows publicly and performing multiple analyses.
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35.
  • Butler, Aodhán D., et al. (författare)
  • Experimental taphonomy of Artemia reveals the role of endogenous microbes in mediating decay and fossilization
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences. - : The Royal Society. - 0962-8452 .- 1471-2954. ; 282, s. 20150476-
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Exceptionally preserved fossils provide major insights into the evolutionaryhistory of life. Microbial activity is thought to play a pivotal role in both thedecay of organisms and the preservation of soft tissue in the fossil record,though this has been the subject of very little experimental investigation.To remedy this, we undertook an experimental study of the decay of thebrine shrimp Artemia, examining the roles of autolysis, microbial activity,oxygen diffusion and reducing conditions. Our findings indicate thatendogenous gut bacteria are the main factor controlling decay. Followinggut wall rupture, but prior to cuticle failure, gut-derived microbes spreadinto the body cavity, consuming tissues and forming biofilms capable ofmediating authigenic mineralization, that pseudomorph tissues and structuressuch as limbs and the haemocoel. These observations explain patternsobserved in exceptionally preserved fossil arthropods. For example, gutsare preserved relatively frequently, while preservation of other internal anatomyis rare. They also suggest that gut-derived microbes play a key role in thepreservation of internal anatomy and that differential preservation betweenexceptional deposits might be because of factors that control autolysis andmicrobial activity. The findings also suggest that the evolution of a throughgut and its bacterial microflora increased the potential for exceptional fossilpreservation in bilaterians, providing one explanation for the extreme rarityof internal preservation in those animals that lack a through gut.
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36.
  • Butler, Aodhán D., 1986-, et al. (författare)
  • The role of microbes in decay and preservation: a Cambrian Explosion of animals and Lagerstätten.
  • Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • The abrupt appearance of animals in the early Cambrian has been interpreted either as an explosive biological diversification or, alternatively, as an artefact resulting from a sudden increase in the probability of animal remains becoming fossilised. We attempt to reconcile these competing interpretations in exceptionally-preserved biota, which provide a vital part of our knowledge of the disparity and diversity of the Cambrian fauna. We assess the factors influencing the potential for exceptional fossil preservation using the brine shrimp Artemia salina as our experimental model. Following gut wall rupture, but prior to cuticle failure, internal, gut-derived microbes spread into the body cavity and formed pseudomorphs of tissues. Gut-derived microbes were shown to be the main factor mediating both decay and biofilm replacement and tissue stabilisation. This pattern of preservation is consistent with results from other experimental studies and with the nature of Burgess Shale type fossil remains. Thus, the evolution of a through-gut may have not only underpinned the ecological revolution that bilaterian diversification represents, but also catalysed the exceptional preservation of early bilaterian fossils.
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37.
  • Conde, Lucia, et al. (författare)
  • Genome-wide association study of follicular lymphoma identifies a risk locus at 6p21.32
  • 2010
  • Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 42:8, s. 661-664
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • To identify susceptibility loci for non-Hodgkin lymphoma subtypes, we conducted a three-stage genome-wide association study. We identified two variants associated with follicular lymphoma at 6p21.32 (rs10484561, combined P = 1.12 x 10(-29) and rs7755224, combined P = 2.00 x 10(-19); r(2) = 1.0), supporting the idea that major histocompatibility complex genetic variation influences follicular lymphoma susceptibility. We also found confirmatory evidence of a previously reported association between chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma and rs735665 (combined P = 4.24 x 10(-9)).
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38.
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39.
  • Coughlin, Michael W., et al. (författare)
  • GROWTH on S190425z : Searching Thousands of Square Degrees to Identify an Optical or Infrared Counterpart to a Binary Neutron Star Merger with the Zwicky Transient Facility and Palomar Gattini-IR
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8205 .- 2041-8213. ; 885:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The third observing run by LVC has brought the discovery of many compact binary coalescences. Following the detection of the first binary neutron star merger in this run (LIGO/Virgo S190425z), we performed a dedicated follow-up campaign with the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) and Palomar Gattini-IR telescopes. The initial skymap of this single-detector gravitational wave (GW) trigger spanned most of the sky observable from Palomar Observatory. Covering 8000 deg(2) of the initial skymap over the next two nights, corresponding to 46% integrated probability, ZTF system achieved a depth of 21 m(AB) in g- and r-bands. Palomar Gattini-IR covered 2200 square degrees in J-band to a depth of 15.5 mag, including 32% integrated probability based on the initial skymap. The revised skymap issued the following day reduced these numbers to 21% for the ZTF and 19% for Palomar Gattini-IR. We narrowed 338,646 ZTF transient ?alerts? over the first two nights of observations to 15 candidate counterparts. Two candidates, ZTF19aarykkb and ZTF19aarzaod, were particularly compelling given that their location, distance, and age were consistent with the GW event, and their early optical light curves were photometrically consistent with that of kilonovae. These two candidates were spectroscopically classified as young core-collapse supernovae. The remaining candidates were ruled out as supernovae. Palomar Gattini-IR did not identify any viable candidates with multiple detections only after merger time. We demonstrate that even with single-detector GW events localized to thousands of square degrees, systematic kilonova discovery is feasible.
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40.
  • Cunningham, John A, et al. (författare)
  • Beliefs about drinking problems : Results from a general population telephone survey
  • 2007
  • Ingår i: Addictive Behaviors. ; 32:1, s. 166-169
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • As part of a general population telephone survey (N = 3006), respondents were asked their beliefs about alcohol problems. The majority of respondents were skeptical about the possibility of untreated and of moderate drinking recoveries. The predominant conceptions of the nature of alcohol problems were those of a disease or of drug addiction. Beliefs about the need for treatment and abstinence were positively associated with being female, older, and married. Current heavy drinkers were less likely to believe that treatment was needed. Former heavy drinkers were more likely to believe that abstinence was required, as compared to all other respondents.
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41.
  • Cunningham, John A., et al. (författare)
  • Societal images of Cannabis use : comparing three countries
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: Harm Reduction Journal. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1477-7517. ; 9, s. 21-
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Differences in beliefs about Cannabis were compared between Canada, Sweden and Finland using nationally representative population surveys containing similar items. Findings: Compared to Finnish and Swedish respondents, Canadians were both more likely to have tried Cannabis and to view Cannabis as a less serious problem for society. Conclusions: These findings emphasize the extent to which views about Cannabis can vary. It is possible that views about Cannabis are, at least in part, a social construction influenced by media, social policy and exposure to the drug that varies from country to country.
  •  
42.
  • Cunningham, John A., et al. (författare)
  • Testing models of dental development in the earliest bony vertebrates, Andreolepis and Lophosteus
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: Biology Letters. - : The Royal Society. - 1744-9561 .- 1744-957X. ; 8:5, s. 833-837
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Theories on the development and evolution of teeth have long been biased by the fallacy that chondrichthyans reflect the ancestral condition for jawed vertebrates. However, correctly resolving the nature of the primitive vertebrate dentition is challenged by a dearth of evidence on dental development in primitive osteichthyans. Jaw elements from the Silurian-Devonian stem-osteichthyans Lophosteus and Andreolepis have been described to bear a dentition arranged in longitudinal rows and vertical files, reminiscent of a pattern of successional development. We tested this inference, using synchrotron radiation X-ray tomographic microscopy (SRXTM) to reveal the pattern of skeletal development preserved in the sclerochronology of the mineralized tissues. The tooth-like tubercles represent focal elaborations of dentine within otherwise continuous sheets of the dermal skeleton, present in at least three stacked generations. Thus, the tubercles are not discrete modular teeth and their arrangement into rows and files is a feature of the dermal ornamentation that does not reflect a polarity of development or linear succession. These fossil remains have no bearing on the nature of the dentition in osteichthyans and, indeed, our results raise questions concerning the homologies of these bones and the phylogenetic classification of Andreolepis and Lophosteus.
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43.
  • Cunningham, John A., et al. (författare)
  • The origin of animals: Can molecular clocks and the fossil record be reconciled?
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Bioessays. - : Wiley. - 0265-9247 .- 1521-1878. ; 38, s. 1-12
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The evolutionary emergence of animals is one of the most significant episodes in the history of life, but its timing remains poorly constrained. Molecular clocks estimate that animals originated and began diversifying over 100 million years before the first definitive metazoan fossil evidence in the Cambrian. However, closer inspection reveals that clock estimates and the fossil record are less divergent than is often claimed. Modern clock analyses do not predict the presence of the crown-representatives of most animal phyla in the Neoproterozoic. Furthermore, despite challenges provided by incomplete preservation, a paucity of phylogenetically informative characters, and uncertain expectations of the anatomy of early animals, a number of Neoproterozoic fossils can reasonably be interpreted as metazoans. A considerable discrepancy remains, but much of this can be explained by the limited preservation potential of early metazoans and the difficulties associated with their identificationin the fossil record. Critical assessment of both recordsmay permitbetter resolutionof the tempo and mode of early animal evolution.
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44.
  • Cunningham, John A., et al. (författare)
  • The Weng’an Biota (Doushantuo Formation): an Ediacaran window on soft bodied and multicellular microorganisms.
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: journal of the geological society. - London : Geological Society. - 2041-479X .- 0016-7649. ; 174:5, s. 793-802
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The Weng’an Biota is a fossil Konservat-Lagerstätte in South China that is approximately 570-600 million years old and provides an unparalleled snapshot of marine life during the interval in which molecular clocks estimate that animal clades were diversifying. It yields specimens that are three-dimensionally preserved in calcium phosphate with cellular and sometimes subcellular fidelity. The biota includes candidates for the oldest animals in the fossil record, including embryonic, larval and adult forms. We argue that, while the Weng’an Biota includes forms that could be animals, none can currently be assigned to this group with confidence. Nonetheless, the biota offers a rare and valuable window on the evolution of multicellular and soft-bodied organisms in the prelude to the Cambrian radiation.
  •  
45.
  • Cunningham, John, et al. (författare)
  • Critical appraisal of tubular putative eumetazoans from the Ediacaran Weng’an Doushantuo biota
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences. - : The Royal Society. - 0962-8452 .- 1471-2954. ; 282, s. 1-9
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Molecular clock analyses estimate that crown-group animals began diversifying hundreds of millions of years before the start of the Cambrian period. However, the fossil record has not yielded unequivocal evidence for animals during this interval. Some of the most promising candidates for Precambrian animals occur in theWeng’an biota of South China, including a suite of tubular fossils assigned to Sinocyclocyclicus, Ramitubus, Crassitubus and Quadratitubus, that have been interpreted as soft-bodied eumetazoans comparable to tabulate corals. Here, we present new insights into the anatomy, original composition and phylogenetic affinities of these taxa based on data from synchrotron radiation X-ray tomographic microscopy, ptychographic nanotomography, scanning electron microscopy and electron probe microanalysis. The patterns of deformation observed suggest that the cross walls of Sinocyclocyclicus and Quadratitubus were more rigid than those of Ramitubus and Crassitubus. Ramitubus and Crassitubus specimens preserve enigmatic cellular clusters at terminal positions in the tubes. Specimens of Sinocyclocyclicus and Ramitubus have biological features that might be cellular tissue or subcellular structures filling the spaces between the crosswalls. These observations are incompatible with a cnidarian interpretation, in which the spaces between cross walls are abandoned parts of the former living positions of the polyp. The affinity of the Weng’an tubular fossils may lie within the algae.
  •  
46.
  • Cunningham, John, et al. (författare)
  • Distinguishing biology from geology in soft-tissue preservation.
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Reading and Writing of the Fossil Record. - : The Paleontological Society. ; , s. 275-287
  • Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Knowledge of evolutionary history is based extensively on relatively rare fossils that preserve soft tissues. These fossils record a much greater proportion of anatomy than would be known solely from mineralized remains and provide key data for testing evolutionary hypotheses in deep time. Ironically, however, exceptionally preserved fossils are often among the most contentious because they are difficult to interpret. This is because their morphology has invariably been affected by the processes of decay and diagenesis, meaning that it is often difficult to distinguish preserved biology from artifacts introduced by these processes. Here we describe how a range of analytical techniques can be used to tease apart mineralization that preserves biological structures from unrelated geological mineralization phases. This approach involves using a series of X-ray, ion, electron and laser beam techniques to characterize the texture and chemistry of the different phases so that they can be differentiated in material that is difficult to interpret. This approach is demonstrated using a case study of its application to the study of fossils from the Ediacaran Doushantuo Biota.
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47.
  • Cunningham, John, et al. (författare)
  • Examining treatment use among alcohol-dependent individuals from a population perspective.
  • 2006
  • Ingår i: Alcohol and Alcoholism, 41. - 0735-0414. ; 41:6, s. 632-635
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Aims: To assess the prevalence of treatment use in lifetime and past year alcohol dependent respondents. To establish the proportion of problem drinkers who use alcohol treatment that just go to one treatment versus attending multiple different types of treatment in the same year. To explore what treatments are most likely to form part of a multiple treatment package. Method: Analysis of the 2001–2002 National Epidemiologic Survey of Alcohol and Related Conditions, a large (N = 43 039), representative survey of the non-institutionalized adult population of the USA. There were 4781 respondents who met criteria for a lifetime definition of alcohol dependence and 1484 respondents who met criteria for past year alcohol dependence. Results: Prevalence of lifetime use of alcohol treatment was 25% among those with a lifetime diagnosis of alcohol dependence. Prevalence of past year use of alcohol treatment was 12% among respondents with past year alcohol dependence. Only one-third of past year treatment users had accessed just one type of alcohol treatment. Conclusions: While treatment services are only used by the minority of people with alcohol dependence, those people who do access alcohol treatment are likely to use several different alcohol treatment services in the same year.
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48.
  • Cunningham, Jonathan W., et al. (författare)
  • Dapagliflozin in Patients Recently Hospitalized With Heart Failure and Mildly Reduced or Preserved Ejection Fraction.
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Journal of the American College of Cardiology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0735-1097. ; 80:14, s. 1302-1310
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Patients recently hospitalized for heart failure (HF) are at high risk for rehospitalization and death. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to investigate clinical outcomes and response to dapagliflozin in patients with HF with mildly reduced or preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) who were enrolled during or following hospitalization. METHODS: The DELIVER (Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the LIVES of Patients With PReserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure) trial randomized patients with HF and LVEF $>$40% to dapagliflozin or placebo. DELIVER permitted randomization during or shortly after hospitalization for HF in clinically stable patients off intravenous HF therapies. This prespecified analysis investigated whether recent HF hospitalization modified risk of clinical events or response to dapagliflozin. The primary outcome was worsening HF event or cardiovascular death. RESULTS: Of 6,263 patients in DELIVER, 654 (10.4%) were randomized during HF hospitalization or within 30 days of discharge. Recent HF hospitalization was associated with greater risk of the primary outcome after multivariable adjustment (HR: 1.88; 95% CI: 1.60-2.21; P $<$ 0.001). Dapagliflozin reduced the primary outcome by 22% in recently hospitalized patients (HR: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.60-1.03) and 18% in patients without recent hospitalization (HR: 0.82; 95% CI: 0.72-0.94; Pinteraction = 0.71). Rates of adverse events, including volume depletion, diabetic ketoacidosis, or renal events, were similar with dapagliflozin and placebo in recently hospitalized patients. CONCLUSIONS: Dapagliflozin safely reduced risk of worsening HF or cardiovascular death similarly in patients with and without history of recent HF hospitalization. Starting dapagliflozin during or shortly after HF hospitalization in patients with mildly reduced or preserved LVEF appears safe and effective. (Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the LIVEs of Patients With PReserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure [DELIVER]; NCT03619213).
  •  
49.
  • Cunningham, J. W., et al. (författare)
  • Myocardial Infarction in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction Pooled Analysis of 3 Clinical Trials
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Jacc-Heart Failure. - : Elsevier BV. - 2213-1779. ; 8:8, s. 618-626
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • OBJECTIVES The authors investigated the relationship between past or incident myocardial infarction (MI) and car-diovascular (CV) events in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). BACKGROUND MI and HFpEF share some common risk factors. The prognostic significance of MI in patients with HFpEF is uncertain. METHODS The authors pooled data from 3 trials-CHARM Preserved (Candesartan Cilexietil in Heart Failure Assessment of Reduction in Mortality and Morbidity), I-Preserve (Irbesartan in Heart Failure With Preserved Systolic Function), and the Americas region of TOPCAT (Treatment of Preserved Cardiac Function Heart Failure With an Aldosterone Antagonist) (N 1/4 8,916)-and examined whether MI before or following enrollment independently predicted CV death and heart failure (HF) hospitalization. RESULTS At baseline, 2,668 patients (30%) had history of MI. Prior MI was independently associated with greater risk of CV death (4.7 vs. 3.5 events/100 patient-years [py], adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 1.42 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.23 to 1.64]; p < 0.001). Excess sudden death drove this difference (1.9 vs. 1.2 events/100 py, adjusted HR: 1.55 [95% CI: 1.23 to 1.97]; p < 0.001). There was no difference in HF hospitalization (5.9 vs. 5.5 events/100 py, adjusted HR: 1.05, 95% CI: 0.92 to 1.19) or HF death by prior MI. During follow-up, MI occurred in 336 patients (3.8%). Risk of CV death increased 31-fold in the first 30 days after first post-enrollment MI, and remained 58% higher beyond 1 year after MI. Risk of first or recurrent HF hospitalization increased 2.4-fold after MI. CONCLUSIONS Prior MI in HFpEF is associated with greater CV and sudden death but similar risk of HF outcomes. Patients with HFpEF who experience MI are at high risk of subsequent CV death and HF hospitalization. These data highlight the importance of primary and secondary prevention of MI in patients with HFpEF. (Candesartan Cilexietil in Heart Failure Assessment of Reduction in Mortality and Morbidity [CHARM Preserved]; NCT00634712; Irbesartan in Heart Failure With Preserved Systolic Function [I-Preserve]; NCT00095238; and Treatment of Preserved Cardiac Function Heart Failure With an Aldosterone Antagonist [TOPCAT]; NCT00094302) (J Am Coll Cardiol HF 2020;8:618-26) (c) 2020 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation.
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