| 1. |
- Brierley, Chris M., et al.
(författare)
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Large-scale features and evaluation of the PMIP4-CMIP6 midHolocene simulations
- 2020
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Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 16:5, s. 1847-1872
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) is a standard time period for the evaluation of the simulated response of global climate models using palaeoclimate reconstructions. The latest mid-Holocene simulations are a palaeoclimate entry card for the Palaeoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) component of the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) - hereafter referred to as PMIP4-CMIP6. Here we provide an initial analysis and evaluation of the results of the experiment for the mid-Holocene. We show that state-of-the-art models produce climate changes that are broadly consistent with theory and observations, including increased summer warming of the Northern Hemisphere and associated shifts in tropical rainfall. Many features of the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations were present in the previous generation (PMIP3-CMIP5) of simulations. The PMIP4-CMIP6 ensemble for the mid-Holocene has a global mean temperature change of -0.3 K, which is -0.2K cooler than the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations predominantly as a result of the prescription of realistic greenhouse gas concentrations in PMIP4-CMIP6. Biases in the magnitude and the sign of regional responses identified in PMIP3-CMIP5, such as the amplification of the northern African monsoon, precipitation changes over Europe, and simulated aridity in mid-Eurasia, are still present in the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations. Despite these issues, PMIP4-CMIP6 and the mid-Holocene provide an opportunity both for quantitative evaluation and derivation of emergent constraints on the hydrological cycle, feedback strength, and potentially climate sensitivity.
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| 2. |
- Brown, Josephine R., et al.
(författare)
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Comparison of past and future simulations of ENSO in CMIP5/PMIP3 and CMIP6/PMIP4 models
- 2020
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Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 16:5, s. 1777-1805
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest mode of interannual climate variability in the current climate, influencing ecosystems, agriculture, and weather systems across the globe, but future projections of ENSO frequency and amplitude remain highly uncertain. A comparison of changes in ENSO in a range of past and future climate simulations can provide insights into the sensitivity of ENSO to changes in the mean state, including changes in the seasonality of incoming solar radiation, global average temperatures, and spatial patterns of sea surface temperatures. As a comprehensive set of coupled model simulations is now available for both palaeoclimate time slices (the Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene, and last interglacial) and idealised future warming scenarios (1 % per year CO2 increase, abrupt four-time CO2 increase), this allows a detailed evaluation of ENSO changes in this wide range of climates. Such a comparison can assist in constraining uncertainty in future projections, providing insights into model agreement and the sensitivity of ENSO to a range of factors. The majority of models simulate a consistent weakening of ENSO activity in the last interglacial and mid-Holocene experiments, and there is an ensemble mean reduction of variability in the western equatorial Pacific in the Last Glacial Maximum experiments. Changes in global temperature produce a weaker precipitation response to ENSO in the cold Last Glacial Maximum experiments and an enhanced precipitation response to ENSO in the warm increased CO2 experiments. No consistent relationship between changes in ENSO amplitude and annual cycle was identified across experiments.
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| 3. |
- Fiedler, Stephanie, et al.
(författare)
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Simulated Tropical Precipitation Assessed across Three Major Phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)
- 2020
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Ingår i: Monthly Weather Review. - 0027-0644 .- 1520-0493. ; 148:9, s. 3653-3680
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The representation of tropical precipitation is evaluated across three generations of models participating in phases 3, 5, and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Compared to state-of-the-art observations, improvements in tropical precipitation in the CMIP6 models are identified for some metrics, but we find no general improvement in tropical precipitation on different temporal and spatial scales. Our results indicate overall little changes across the CMIP phases for the summer monsoons, the double-ITCZ bias, and the diurnal cycle of tropical precipitation. We find a reduced amount of drizzle events in CMIP6, but tropical precipitation occurs still too frequently. Continuous improvements across the CMIP phases are identified for the number of consecutive dry days, for the representation of modes of variability, namely, the Madden–Julian oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and for the trends in dry months in the twentieth century. The observed positive trend in extreme wet months is, however, not captured by any of the CMIP phases, which simulate negative trends for extremely wet months in the twentieth century. The regional biases are larger than a climate change signal one hopes to use the models to identify. Given the pace of climate change as compared to the pace of model improvements to simulate tropical precipitation, we question the past strategy of the development of the present class of global climate models as the mainstay of the scientific response to climate change. We suggest the exploration of alternative approaches such as high-resolution storm-resolving models that can offer better prospects to inform us about how tropical precipitation might change with anthropogenic warming.
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| 4. |
- Shi, Xiaoxu, et al.
(författare)
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Calendar effects on surface air temperature and precipitation based on model-ensemble equilibrium and transient simulations from PMIP4 and PACMEDY
- 2022
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Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 18:5, s. 1047-1070
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Numerical modeling enables a comprehensive understanding not only of the Earth's system today, but also of the past. To date, a significant amount of time and effort has been devoted to paleoclimate modeling and analysis, which involves the latest and most advanced Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 4 (PMIP4). The definition of seasonality, which is influenced by slow variations in the Earth's orbital parameters, plays a key role in determining the calculated seasonal cycle of the climate. In contrast to the classical calendar used today, where the lengths of the months and seasons are fixed, the angular calendar calculates the lengths of the months and seasons according to a fixed number of degrees along the Earth's orbit. When comparing simulation results for different time intervals, it is essential to account for the angular calendar to ensure that the data for comparison are from the same position along the Earth's orbit. Most models use the classical calendar, which can lead to strong distortions of the monthly and seasonal values, especially for the climate of the past. Here, by analyzing daily outputs from multiple PMIP4 model simulations, we examine calendar effects on surface air temperature and precipitation under mid-Holocene, Last Interglacial, and pre-industrial climate conditions. We came to the following conclusions. (a) The largest cooling bias occurs in boreal autumn when the classical calendar is applied for the mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial, due to the fact that the vernal equinox is fixed on 21 March. (b) The sign of the temperature anomalies between the Last Interglacial and pre-industrial in boreal autumn can be reversed after the switch from the classical to angular calendar, particularly over the Northern Hemisphere continents. (c) Precipitation over West Africa is overestimated in boreal summer and underestimated in boreal autumn when the classical seasonal cycle is applied. (d) Finally, month-length adjusted values for surface air temperature and precipitation are very similar to the day-length adjusted values, and therefore correcting the calendar based on the monthly model results can largely reduce the artificial bias. In addition, we examine the calendar effects in three transient simulations for 6-0 ka by AWIESM, MPI-ESM, and IPSL-CM. We find significant discrepancies between adjusted and unadjusted temperature values over continents for both hemispheres in boreal autumn, while for other seasons the deviations are relatively small. A drying bias can be found in the summer monsoon precipitation in Africa (in the classical calendar), whereby the magnitude of bias becomes smaller over time. Overall, our study underlines the importance of the application of calendar transformation in the analysis of climate simulations. Neglecting the calendar effects could lead to a profound artificial distortion of the calculated seasonal cycle of surface air temperature and precipitation.
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| 5. |
- Vellone, Ercole, et al.
(författare)
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Patterns of Self-care in Adults With Heart Failure and Their Associations With Sociodemographic and Clinical Characteristics, Quality of Life, and Hospitalizations A Cluster Analysis
- 2017
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Ingår i: Journal of Cardiovascular Nursing. - : LIPPINCOTT WILLIAMS & WILKINS. - 0889-4655 .- 1550-5049. ; 32:2, s. 180-189
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Self-care is important in heart failure (HF) treatment, but patients may have difficulties and be inconsistent in its performance. Inconsistencies in self-care behaviors may mirror patterns of self-care in HF patients that are worth identifying to provide interventions tailored to patients. Objectives: The aims of this study are to identify clusters of HF patients in relation to self-care behaviors and to examine and compare the profile of each HF patient cluster considering the patients sociodemographics, clinical variables, quality of life, and hospitalizations. Methods: This was a secondary analysis of data from a cross-sectional study in which we enrolled 1192 HF patients across Italy. A cluster analysis was used to identify clusters of patients based on the European Heart Failure Self-care Behaviour Scale factor scores. Analysis of variance and x(2) test were used to examine the characteristics of each cluster. Results: Patients were 72.4 years old on average, and 58% were men. Four clusters of patients were identified: (1) high consistent adherence with high consulting behaviors, characterized by younger patients, with higher formal education and higher income, less clinically compromised, with the best physical and mental quality of life (QOL) and lowest hospitalization rates; (2) low consistent adherence with low consulting behaviors, characterized mainly by male patients, with lower formal education and lowest income, more clinically compromised, and worse mental QOL; (3) inconsistent adherence with low consulting behaviors, characterized by patients who were less likely to have a caregiver, with the longest illness duration, the highest number of prescribed medications, and the best mental QOL; (4) and inconsistent adherence with high consulting behaviors, characterized by patients who were mostly female, with lower formal education, worst cognitive impairment, worst physical and mental QOL, and higher hospitalization rates. Conclusion: The 4 clusters identified in this study and their associated characteristics could be used to tailor interventions aimed at improving self-care behaviors in HF patients.
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