| 1. |
- Glynn, James, et al.
(författare)
-
Economic Impacts of Future Changes in the Energy System : National Perspectives
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models. - Cham : Encyclopedia of Global Archaeology/Springer Verlag. - 9783319165394 - 9783319165400 ; , s. 359-387
-
Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In a climate constrained future, hybrid energy-economy model coupling gives additional insight into interregional competition, trade, industrial delocalisation and overall macroeconomic consequences of decarbonising the energy system. Decarbonising the energy system is critical in mitigating climate change. This chapter summarises modelling methodologies developed in the ETSAP community to assess economic impacts of decarbonising energy systems at a national level. The preceding chapter focuses on a global perspective. The modelling studies outlined here show that burden sharing rules and national revenue recycling schemes for carbon tax are critical for the long-term viability of economic growth and equitable engagement on combating climate change. Traditional computable general equilibrium models and energy systems models solved in isolation can misrepresent the long run carbon cost and underestimate the demand response caused by technological paradigm shifts in a decarbonised energy system. The approaches outlined within have guided the first evidence based decarbonisation legislation and continue to provide additional insights as increased sectoral disaggregation in hybrid modelling approaches is achieved
|
|
| 2. |
- Glynn, James, et al.
(författare)
-
Economic Impacts of Future Changes in the Energy System : Global Perspectives
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models. - Cham : Encyclopedia of Global Archaeology/Springer Verlag. - 9783319165394 - 9783319165400 ; , s. 333-358
-
Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In a climate constrained future, hybrid energy-economy model coupling gives additional insight into interregional competition, trade, industrial delocalisation and overall macroeconomic consequences of decarbonising the energy system. Decarbonising the energy system is critical in mitigating climate change. This chapter summarises modelling methodologies developed in the ETSAP community to assess economic impacts of decarbonising energy systems at a global level. The next chapter of this book focuses on a national perspective. The range of economic impacts is regionally dependent upon the stage of economic development, the level of industrialisation, energy intensity of exports, and competition effects due to rates of relative decarbonisation. Developed nation’s decarbonisation targets are estimated to result in a manageable GDP loss in the region of 2 % by 2050. Energy intensive export driven developing countries such as China and India, and fossil fuel exporting nations can expect significantly higher GDP loss of up to 5 % GDP per year by mid-century.
|
|
| 3. |
- Mittal, Shivika, 1986, et al.
(författare)
-
Key factors influencing the global passenger transport dynamics using the AIM/transport model
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 1361-9209. ; 55, s. 373-388
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A bottom-up passenger transport model named AIM (Asia-pacific Integrated Model)/Transport model is developed by incorporating behavioral parameters and transportation technological details. This model is based on discrete based choice modelling covering 17 global regions soft-linked with the AIM/CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model. In this paper, the model is used to assess the impact of various factors like travel time, energy efficiency improvement, load factor, mode preference along with environmental awareness factors on transport demand, energy and emissions. The modelling assessment results show that travel speed and land-use patterns have significant impact on the travel demand. High occupancy rate and shift towards the mass-transit system result in energy and emissions reduction. Implementation of carbon tax aligned with the two-degree target results in a 22% cumulative emission reduction from 2005 to 2100 relative to the baseline case. However, the reduction potential can be increased to 42% by combining behavioral and technology related mitigation options like mass-transit system speed improvement, transit oriented development, efficiency improvement, preference towards eco-friendly technologies and high vehicle occupancy.
|
|
| 4. |
- Panos, Evangelos, et al.
(författare)
-
Deep decarbonisation pathways of the energy system in times of unprecedented uncertainty in the energy sector
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier Ltd. - 0301-4215 .- 1873-6777. ; 180:September
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Unprecedented investments in clean energy technology are required for a net-zero carbon energy system before temperatures breach the Paris Agreement goals. By performing a Monte-Carlo Analysis with the detailed ETSAP-TIAM Integrated Assessment Model and by generating 4000 scenarios of the world's energy system, climate and economy, we find that the uncertainty surrounding technology costs, resource potentials, climate sensitivity and the level of decoupling between energy demands and economic growth influence the efficiency of climate policies and accentuate investment risks in clean energy technologies. Contrary to other studies relying on exploring the uncertainty space via model intercomparison, we find that the CO2 emissions and CO2 prices vary convexly and nonlinearly with the discount rate and climate sensitivity over time. Accounting for this uncertainty is important for designing climate policies and carbon prices to accelerate the transition. In 70% of the scenarios, a 1.5 °C temperature overshoot was within this decade, calling for immediate policy action. Delaying this action by ten years may result in 2 °C mitigation costs being similar to those required to reach the 1.5 °C target if started today, with an immediate peak in emissions, a larger uncertainty in the medium-term horizon and a higher effort for net-zero emissions.
|
|
| 5. |
- Shukla, Priyadarshi Ramprasad, et al.
(författare)
-
India INDC assessment: Emission gap between pledged target and 2 °C target
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Post-2020 Climate Action: Global and Asian Perspectives. - Singapore : Springer Singapore. ; , s. 113-124
-
Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- India has pledged to reduce the carbon intensity of GDP by 33-35% in the year 2030 compared to 2005 level in its Intended Nationally-Determined Contributions (INDC). The goal of limiting the global average temperature rise well below 2 °C was reaffirmed in the Paris Agreement adopted under UNFCCC. This chapter assesses three scenarios for India spanning till 2030. First, the reference scenario assumes continuation of the ongoing policies along the conventional path. Second, INDC scenario assumes the successful implementation of INDC decarbonization target. Two-degree (2 °C) scenario assumes an emission constraint aligned with the global of 2 °C stabilization target. The modelling assessment is carried out using a top-down computable general equilibrium AIM/CGE (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium) model. The results show that even after full implementation of the INDCs, the emissions would still be 25 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent higher than 2 °C stabilization target over the period 2016-2030. Enhanced actions like penetration of renewable technologies, end-use demand management and improvement in energy efficiency could help to close this emission gap.
|
|
| 6. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(författare)
-
- 2020
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
|
|
