| 1. |
- Rosén, Anders, et al.
(author)
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Transformation-Driving Education : Perspectives Emerging in a Dialogue between Teachers with Experiences from Challenge-Driven Education
- 2022
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In: 2022 IEEE Frontiers in Education Conference (FIE). - : IEEE conference proceedings. - 9781665462440
-
Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Den här artikeln utforskar olika implementeringar av och lärares erfarenheter från utmaningsdriven utbildning och liknande lärandemetoder inom ingenjörsutbildning och andra högre utbildningssammanhang. Genom en aktionsforskningsmetod kan centrala problem bland lärarna och likheter och skillnader mellan de studerade kurserna identifieras. Studien belyser potentialen i dessa inlärningsmetoder, som medel för att bryta och gå bortom de traditionella gränserna för högre utbildning, förbättra och korsbefrukta ingenjörsutbildning med andra discipliner och ge studenterna makt både som professionella och människor. Det indikerar också potentiella barriärer och inbyggda spänningar som är avgörande att hantera för framgångsrik implementering. Studien visar vidare på stora möjligheter till ömsesidigt lärande och samarbete mellan lärare från olika sammanhang och bakgrunder. Resultaten diskuteras i relation till forskning inom områden som hållbarhetsutbildning, transformativt lärande och framtidsstudier, och möjligheter till vidare forskning och utveckling beskrivs.
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| 2. |
- Rosén, Anders, Dr, et al.
(author)
-
Transformation-Driving Education: Perspectives Emerging in a Dialogue between Teachers with Experiences from Challenge-Driven Education
- 2022
-
Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This Research Full Paper explores different implementations of and teachers’ experiences from challenge-driven education and similar learning approaches in engineering education and other higher education contexts. Through an action research approach key concerns among the teachers and similarities and differences between the studied courses can be identified. The study highlights the potential in these learning approaches, as means for breaking and going beyond the traditional boundaries of higher education, enhancing and cross-fertilizing engineering education with other disciplines, and empowering students both as professionals and humans. It also indicates potential barriers and in-built tensions that are crucial to handle for successful implementation. The study further shows on great opportunities for mutual learning and collaboration between teachers from diverse contexts and backgrounds. The findings are discussed in relation to research within domains such as sustainability education, transformative learning, and futures studies, and opportunities for further research and development are outlined.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Abbas, Abdul-Karim, 1959, et al.
(author)
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Persistent LTP without triggered protein synthesis.
- 2009
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In: Neuroscience research. - : Elsevier BV. - 0168-0102. ; 63:1, s. 59-65
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Protein synthesis is believed to be involved in stabilizing synaptic plasticity. Effects lasting longer than about 2-3h are considered to require synthesis of new proteins, implying a functional separation between early (E) and late (L) components. However, the issue of constitutive vs. new protein synthesis is still unclear, especially in young animals. Here, we examined the effects of two protein synthesis inhibitors, anisomycin and emetine, on long-term-potentiation (LTP) in CA1 area of hippocampal slices from 12- to 20-day-old rats. Either drug was applied from -30 min to +30 min with respect to LTP induction, a time window previously reported to be critical. However, the LTP remained stable under the entire recording period of 4h (anisomycin), or 8h (emetine). Proper preparation of emetine solution was evidenced by the fact that, in separate experiments, prolonged treatment with emetine gradually blocked baseline responses. Although no corresponding effect was observed with anisomycin, the drug was judged to be potent by its ability to inhibit yeast growth. The ability of anisomycin to inhibit protein synthesis was further confirmed by radiolabeling experiments assessing the degree of leucine incorporation. Our data suggest that LTP up to at least 8h is not dependent on triggered protein synthesis but can be attained by utilizing proteins already available at induction time.
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| 5. |
- Abdel-Fattah, Dina, et al.
(author)
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Application of a structured decision-making process in cryospheric hazard planning : Case study of Bering Glacier surges on local state planning in Alaska
- 2024
-
In: Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis. - 1057-9214 .- 1099-1360. ; 31:1-2
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Surging glaciers are glaciers that experience rapidly accelerated glacier flow over a comparatively short period of time. Though relatively rare worldwide, Alaska is home to the largest number of surge-type glaciers globally. However, their impact on the broader socioecological system in the state is both poorly understood and under-researched, which poses a challenge in developing appropriate sustainability decisions in Alaska. We investigated how the surge patterns of the Bering Glacier in Alaska have potentially devastating effects on the local ecological biodiversity of its watershed via a structured decision-making analysis of the different possible consequences. Specifically, this analysis was conducted to explore the various outcomes of a Bering Glacier surge particularly if humans have an increased presence near the glacier due to the area potentially becoming a state park. This work explored the benefits of applying a risk and decision analytical framework in a cryosphere context, to better understand the socioeconomic impact of glacier surges. This is a novel approach in which a decision analysis tool was used to better understand an environmental sustainability challenge, offering an innovative method to support the achievement of the United Nations Sustainability Development Goals in Alaska. We therefore emphasise the need for integrated biophysical and socioeconomic analyses when it comes to understanding glacier hazards. Our research highlights the importance of understanding and researching biophysical changes as well as using a structured decision-making process for complicated hazard planning scenarios, exemplified via glaciated regions in Alaska, in order to create adaptation strategies that are sustainable and encompass the range of possible outcomes.
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| 6. |
- Araújo, Marco, 1982-, et al.
(author)
-
A Multi-Criteria Approach to Decision Making in Broadband Technology Selection
- 2022
-
In: Group Decision and Negotiation. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0926-2644 .- 1572-9907. ; 31:2, s. 387-418
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A new European Union regulatory framework for the telecom sector has been under a process of transposition to national laws by its member states that should have been completed by the end of 2020, notwithstanding some delays. A core purpose of the regulatory framework is to guarantee that most citizens will have access to very fast Internet connections, capable of 100 Mbps download link speed, regardless of where they live. According to this new framework, in areas where the market does not deliver, governments are to launch public tenders for the deployment, maintenance, and operations of network infrastructure as well as services, and public funds should be used to support the deployment of these broadband networks in less densely populated areas. Needless to say, public tenders of this nature are subject to different criteria when it comes to candidate evaluation. In this paper, we present a decision model for the selection of operators to deploy and maintain broadband networks in scarcely populated areas, taking into consideration infrastructure costs, the technical quality offered by the solutions, and the credibility of the candidates. We suggest an integrated multi-stakeholder multi-criteria approach and demonstrate how it can be used in this complex area and find that in the example provided, taking a relevant set of criteria into the analysis, optical fibre networks hold much higher chances to be used in these public tenders compared to networks based on the broadly favoured 5G technology.
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| 7. |
- Araújo, Marco, et al.
(author)
-
A real options approach to decision making in broadband technology selection
- 2019
-
In: International Journal of Multicriteria Decision Making. - 2040-106X .- 2040-1078. ; 8:2, s. 184-210
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The European Union has recently launched an ambitious plan to mitigate drastically, by 2025, the number of households lacking access to a 100 Mbps broadband connection through the subsidisation of the deployment of network infrastructure in rural areas. Decision makers such as governments and regulatory authorities therefore have to choose, among a pool of alternatives, a technology capable of delivering the required throughput on a large scale, based on a trade-off between the infrastructure costs and the subscribers’ perceived utility for each alternative. Such a trade-off is not simple, since there is no straightforward manner to rank the subscribers’ perceived utility against the network infrastructure cost. In this article, we propose a methodology based on real options, which outputs the value of each technology using multi-attribute value theory as an input, alongside the project’s risk and its costs.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
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| 11. |
- Borking, Kjell, et al.
(author)
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Transcending Business Intelligence
- 2011. - 1
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Book (pop. science, debate, etc.)abstract
- How on Earth did this happen? The question is not infrequent, but more to the point, it?s unnecessary. It arises because in many cases people haven?t thought things through beforehand. Yes, sometimes people can be unlucky, but far from every time that things go awry; bad luck is never so consistent - by definition. Thinking things through properly beforehand might seem a fairly obvious requirement for making a good decision, but startlingly often, even critical decisions are made without any in depth analysis. Well, there may have been some background data lying around somewhere, but not much is done with it. Though it's easy to blame authoritarian leadership or the like, poor decision making is far more usually due to not really knowing what to do with the available information, whether it's sufficient and what else needs to be known There?s nothing weird or idiotic about today?s decision makers, but there often is about the tools and methods available to them. It would be more accurate to say that many decision makers have been lead astray regarding their remit and capacity, but fortunately with structured decision processes they can be guided back on track far more easily than had they been as dim- witted as some of their decisions would indicate.Businesses introduce various BI solutions both timely and untimely, but what most of them don't have is any kind of methodology by which to deal with decisions. With no processes, knowledge, techniques or tools, they soon come to grief. Happily this is fairly easy to remedy.Decision processes and decision methods can be greatly improved. In this book we simply explain how to go about it.
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| 12. |
- Borking, Kjell, et al.
(author)
-
Transcending Business Intelligence
- 2022. - Third
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Book (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Det största problemet med mänskligt beslutsfattande är att intuitionen sällan är tillräcklig. I många fall är det helt enkelt för svårt att fatta rationella och väl övervägda beslut utan hjälp. Ett ännu större problem är att de flesta inte inser detta. Människor tror att de är rationella men i själva verket är deras förmåga till rationalitet ganska begränsad, en situation som förvärras av villfarelsen att vi utan någon form av hjälp kan fatta kloka beslut. Man kan tycka att organisationer och människor bara ska gå vidare med saker och ting så bra de kan och lämna det där, men det är ofta så att beslut påverkar andra människor, ibland ganska mycket, ibland avgörande, och i vissa fall påverkar de många. andra människor eller organismer, födda och ofödda. Det gäller till exempel offentliga beslut om policys, inte minst under covid-19-pandemin, och om storskaliga infrastrukturprojekt. Inte ovanligt får vi intrycket av ett oacceptabelt stort inslag av slump, även i mycket kostsamma eller kontroversiella frågor. Detta är ganska onödigt.
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| 13. |
- Brouwers, Lisa, 1967-, et al.
(author)
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Multi-criteria decision-making of policy strategies with public-private re-insurance systems
- 2004
-
In: Risk, Decision, and Policy. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1357-5309 .- 1466-4534. ; 9:1, s. 23-45
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This article describes an integrated flood catastrophe model as well as some results of a case study made in the Upper Tisza region in north-eastern Hungary: the Palad-Csecsei basin. The background data was provided through the Hungarian Academy of Sciences and complemented by interviews with different stakeholders in the region. Based on these data, for which a large degree of uncertainty is prevailing, we demonstrate how an implementation of a simulation and decision analytical model can provide insights into the effects of imposing different policy options for a flood risk management program in the region. We focus herein primarily on general options for designing a public-private insurance and reinsurance system for Hungary. Obviously, this is a multi-criteria and multi-stakeholder problem and cannot be solved using standard approaches. It should, however, be emphasised that the main purpose of this article is not to provide any definite recommendations, but rather to explore a set of policy packages that could gain a consensus among the stakeholders.
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| 14. |
- Caster, Ola, 1982-
(author)
-
Quantitative methods to support drug benefit-risk assessment
- 2014
-
Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Joint evaluation of drugs’ beneficial and adverse effects is required in many situations, in particular to inform decisions on initial or sustained marketing of drugs, or to guide the treatment of individual patients. This synthesis, known as benefit-risk assessment, is without doubt important: timely decisions supported by transparent and sound assessments can reduce mortality and morbidity in potentially large groups of patients. At the same time, it can be hugely complex: drug effects are generally disparate in nature and likelihood, and the information that needs to be processed is diverse, uncertain, deficient, or even unavailable. Hence there is a clear need for methods that can reliably and efficiently support the benefit-risk assessment process. For already marketed drugs, this process often starts with the detection of previously unknown risks that are subsequently integrated with all other relevant information for joint analysis.In this thesis, quantitative methods are devised to support different aspects of drug benefit-risk assessment, and the practical usefulness of these methods is demonstrated in clinically relevant case studies. Shrinkage regression is adapted and implemented for large-scale screening in collections of individual case reports, leading to the discovery of a link between methylprednisolone and hepatotoxicity. This adverse effect is then considered as part of a complete benefit-risk assessment of methylprednisolone in multiple sclerosis relapses, set in a general framework of probabilistic decision analysis. Two methods devised in the thesis substantively contribute to this assessment: one for efficient generation of utility distributions for the considered clinical outcomes, driven by modelling of qualitative information; and one for computing risk limits for rare and otherwise non-quantifiable adverse effects, based on collections of individual case reports.
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| 15. |
- Cöster, Mathias, 1969-, et al.
(author)
-
Digital Transformation : Understanding Business Goals, Risks, Processes, and Decisions
- 2023
-
Book (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Även om digitalisering är långt ifrån ett nytt koncept, antar många att det räcker med att bara införa automation och informationssystem i olika former för att effektivisera deras organisations verksamhet. Denna missuppfattning kan ofta leda till oordning och kostsamma misstag. Digital transformation: Att förstå affärsmål, risker, processer och beslut visar hur man undviker sådana problem genom att noggrant överväga vad ett företag verkligen behöver.Till skillnad från många andra böcker om digital transformation, uppehåller sig författarna inte vid databasdesign eller detaljerna för att implementera informationssystem. Istället betonar de vikten av en tydlig förståelse för alla aspekter av en organisation för att effektivt kunna implementera och hantera digitala system, från affärsmål och strategier till att strukturera information och fatta beslut, riskbedömningar, projektledning, organisera och upphandla tjänster och Produkter.Den här boken är organiserad i elva kapitel och bygger på exempel från hela världen och kommer att vara av intresse för universitetsstudenter inom företagsekonomi, management, informationssystem och datavetenskap, såväl som praktiker som vill bättre förstå hur man hanterar digital transformation i sin egen organisation.
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| 16. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(author)
-
A Decision Analytical Perspective on Public Procurement Processes
- 2016
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In: Real-World Decision Support Systems. - Cham : Springer. - 9783319439150 - 9783319439167 ; , s. 125-150
-
Book chapter (other academic/artistic)abstract
- If procurement processes are to be taken seriously, purchase managers need decision support tools beyond those that only ascertain that the formal requirements are met. This chapter demonstrates some fundamental flaws with common models used in procurement situations, flaws that are so serious that the evaluations of tenders often become meaningless and may lead to large and costly miscalculations. We demonstrate how the equitability of the tender evaluations can be significantly improved through the use of multi-criteria decision analysis with numerically imprecise input information. Due to this, the computational part of the evaluation step becomes more complex, and algorithms targeted for decision evaluation with imprecise data are used. We therefore present a procurement decision tool, Decide IT, implementing such algorithms that can be used as an instrument for a more meaningful procurement process. Of importance is to allow for a more realistic degree of precision in the valuation and ranking of tenders under each evaluation criterion, as well as the associated weighting of the criteria, since the criteria are often of a more qualitative nature. Through this, both quantitative and qualitative statements could be easily managed within the same framework and without the need to introduce ad-hoc and often arbitrary conversion formulas supposed to capture the trade-off between criteria.
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| 17. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(author)
-
A Decision Tool for the Water-Energy Nexus in Jordan
- 2020
-
In: Knowledge Innovation Through Intelligent Software Methodologies, Tools and Techniques. - : IOS Press. - 9781643681146 - 9781643681153 ; , s. 294-302
-
Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Jordan is currently facing a serious problem of water scarcity. It is the fourth water-scarce country in the world. The sustainability of water supply in Jordan is affected not only by the depletion of water reserves but also by increasing electricity tariffs. In this paper, we present some results regarding the water-energy nexus governance in Jordan using a computer-supported co-creative approach for evaluating stakeholder preferences on criteria and possible scenarios of development for the sectors. We describe a decision support tool and a methodology for evaluating stakeholder preferences for both sectors and on possible scenarios of development for the water and energy sectors. We rank possible energy and water futures ranked under a set of sector-relevant criteria while considering entire ranges of possible alternative values and criteria weights. Using second-order probabilistic considerations, we furthermore analyse how plausible it is that a scenario outranks the others.
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| 18. |
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| 19. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(author)
-
A Framework for Categorising and Evaluating Tools for E-democracy
- 2020
-
In: Electronic Journal of e-Government. - 1479-439X. ; 18:1, s. 69-82
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The design of tools and interfaces for e-democracy systems takes place in a highly multidisciplinary context. However, the inter-contextual understanding of democracy is still immature. This article presents a framework suitable for evaluating tools for e-democracy. The framework has been developed based on earlier theories and frameworks and then further evaluated against two test cases: Twitter and BottenAda. The evaluation model builds on the inclusion of different views of e-democracy, not seeing them as conflicting per se but rather making it possible for e-democracy tool users and developers to understand the varying degree of support a tool can display for several aspects of democracy. The model also provides a visualization of complex theories and can thus contribute to a more informed discussion on what types of democratic values are being supported in a particular e-democracy tool.
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| 20. |
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| 21. |
- Danielson, Mats, 1959-, et al.
(author)
-
A Multi-Criteria Approach to Analysing E-Democracy Support Systems
- 2022
-
In: Facebook Nation. - New York, NY : Springer. - 9781071618660 - 9781071618677 ; , s. 299-328
-
Book chapter (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Ny informations- och kommunikationsteknik (IKT) har gjort den offentliga sfären mer mångfaldig och fragmenterad, och följaktligen kräver den en ny typ av läskunnighet att navigera. Den interkontextuella förståelsen av demokrati är dock fortfarande omogen, vilket gör det ibland svårt att ha en mer sammanhållen syn på de olika begreppen och idéerna som är involverade. Inte heller är det mer begränsade begreppet e-demokrati okomplicerat och utformningen av verktyg och gränssnitt för e-demokratisystem sker i ett mycket multidisciplinärt sammanhang, samtidigt som det fortfarande finns behov av några gemensamma idéer om vad demokrati faktiskt innebär, även i detta nytt sammanhang. I det här kapitlet föreslår vi ett allmänt ramverk för att utvärdera verktyg för e-demokrati och föreslår några icke-uttömmande kriterier under vilka sådana verktyg kan utvärderas. Ramverket är avsett att göra det möjligt för användare och utvecklare att förstå den varierande grad av stöd ett verktyg kan ge för flera aspekter av demokrati, och innehåller en rankningsmekanism samt ett förslag på ett rankningsbaserat index baserat på olika kriterier och prestanda för ett verktyg under dessa, samtidigt som det fortfarande är inkluderande vad gäller olika möjliga uppfattningar om begreppet e-demokrati och dess olika former.
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| 22. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(author)
-
A Multi-Stakeholder Approach to Energy Transition Policy Formation in Jordan
- 2018
-
In: Group Decision and Negotiation in an Uncertain World. - Cham : Springer. - 9783319928746 - 9783319928739 ; , s. 190-202
-
Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present the method used in an ongoing project in Jordan for a multi-stakeholder, multi-criteria problem of formulating a nationwide energy strategy for the country for the next decades. The Jordanian government has recognized the need for energy transition and the main goal of the energy strategy is to provide a reliable energy supply by increasing the share of local energy resources in the energy mix, while reducing dependency on imported fossil fuels, by diversifying energy resources, also including renewable energy sources, nuclear and shale oil, and by enhancing environmental protection. There were strong incentives for a collaborative approach, since the ways in which different stakeholder groups subjectively attach meanings to electricity generation technologies are recognized as important issues shaping the attainment of energy planning objectives. To understand the meaning of these constructs, we are using a multi-stakeholder multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach to elicit criteria weights and valuations.
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| 23. |
- Danielson, Mats, 1959-, et al.
(author)
-
A Participatory MCDA Approach to Energy Transition Policy Formation
- 2022
-
In: Multicriteria and Optimization Models for Risk, Reliability, and Maintenance Decision Analysis. - Cham : Springer. - 9783030896461 - 9783030896478 ; , s. 79-110
-
Book chapter (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Energiomställningen mot en mer betydande andel av inhemskt genererade resurser kommer oundvikligen att leda till en samhällsomvandling, som kommer att påverka intressen hos befintliga och framväxande elproduktionsindustrier och andra intressenter. För att vara hållbar bör en sådan övergång också ta upp frågor om miljöskydd och bidrag till socioekonomisk utveckling. Detta kapitel bygger på antagandet att mänskliga faktorer spelar en viktig roll i energiomställningen. Det är nödvändigt att utveckla kompromisslösningar för att minska risken för att olikheter i åsikter om elproduktionstekniker som behövs för energiomställningen kommer att förvandlas till motstridiga åsikter. Dessa mänskliga faktorer inkluderar uppfattningar om olika risker kopplade till tekniskt utnyttjande, såväl som synpunkter på fördelar och effekter som genereras av olika teknologier. Vi använder en ny multi-stakeholder multi-kriterie-metod för att bedöma relevansen av Jordaniens elproduktionsteknik mot en uppsättning kriterier under osäkerhet, som återspeglar miljömässiga, sociala och ekonomiska komponenter i hållbar utveckling. Resultaten visar att diskursen i det jordanska samhället för närvarande domineras av ekonomisk rationalitet, såsom elkostnader, med stöd av oro för säkerheten under drift och underhåll av elproduktionskraftverk. Resultaten visar också den starka önskan från alla intressentgrupper att ha en möjlighet att engagera sig i beslutsfattande processer om energiomställning snarare än att enbart kompensera lokala samhällen för installation av elproduktion och överföringsteknik.
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| 24. |
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| 25. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(author)
-
A Prescriptive Approach to Elicitation of Decision Data
- 2009
-
In: Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1559-8608 .- 1559-8616. ; 3:1, s. 157-168
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Most current decision analytical tools and elicitation methods are built on the assumption that decision-makers are able to make their probability and utility assessments in a proper manner. This is, however, often not the case. The specification and execution of elicitation processes are in the majority of cases left to the discretion of the users, not least in user-driven cases such as public information and e-democracy projects. A number of studies have shown, among other things, that people's natural choice behaviour deviates from normative assumptions, and that the results display an inertia gap due to differently framed prospects. One reason for the occurrence of the inertia gap is people's inability to express their preferences as single numbers. Instead of considering this as being a human error, this paper uses the gap in order to develop a class of methods more aligned to the observed behaviour. The core idea of the class is to acknowledge the existence of the gap and, as a consequence, not elicit single point numbers.
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| 26. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(author)
-
A Process for Participatory Democracy in Electronic Government
- 2008
-
In: Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis. - : Wiley. - 1057-9214 .- 1099-1360. ; 15:1-2, s. 15-30
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper presents a project and case study integrating decision methods into democratic processes. The case discussed is a set of three complicated decisions in a municipality in Sweden. The decisions had been postponed on several occasions prior to bringing in the method described in the paper. The method employed consists of two main parts. The interaction part contains the communication channels directed to the stakeholders. The decision-process part consists of a three-layered working process model. As a part of the method, the project was highly visible on the web. Citizens were encouraged to submit material to the project. All intermediate results of the process were continuously published, enhancing transparency. For each decision, the analysis consisted of comparing all alternatives, taking the respective criteria into account as weighted or ranked by the participants. A method for recording compromises analytically was also used. The purpose was not to replace the political process but to support it in a structured way.
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| 27. |
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| 28. |
- Danielson, Mats, 1959-, et al.
(author)
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A risk-based decision framework for policy analysis of societal pandemic effects
- 2023
-
In: Frontiers In Public Health. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-2565. ; 11
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- I den här artikeln sammanfattar vi våra resultat från ett EU-stödt projekt för policyanalyser tillämpade på pandemier som Covid-19 (med potential att tillämpas även på andra liknande faror) samtidigt som vi överväger olika begränsningsnivåer och konsekvensuppsättningar under flera kriterier. Den är baserad på vår tidigare utveckling för att hantera oprecis information i riskträd och multikriteriehierarkier med hjälp av intervall och kvalitativa uppskattningar. Vi presenterar kort den teoretiska bakgrunden och visar hur den kan användas för systematiska policyanalyser. I vår modell använder vi beslutsträd och multikriteriehierarkier utökade med trosfördelningar för vikter, sannolikheter och värden samt kombinationsregler för att aggregera bakgrundsinformationen i en utökad förväntad värdemodell, med hänsyn till såväl kriterievikter som sannolikheter och utfall. värden. Vi använde det datorstödda verktyget DecideIT för den aggregerade beslutsanalysen under osäkerhet. Ramverket har tillämpats i tre länder: Botswana, Rumänien och Jordanien, och utvidgats för scenariobyggande under den tredje vågen av pandemin i Sverige, vilket bevisar dess genomförbarhet i realtidspolicyutformning för pandemibekämpande åtgärder. Detta arbete resulterade i en mer finmaskig modell för politiska beslut som är mycket mer anpassade till samhällets behov i framtiden, antingen om Covid-19-pandemin råder eller för nästa pandemi eller andra samhällsomfattande farliga nödsituationer.
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| 29. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(author)
-
A Robustness Study of State-of-the-Art Surrogate Weights for MCDM
- 2017
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In: Group Decision and Negotiation. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0926-2644 .- 1572-9907. ; 26:4, s. 677-691
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A vast number of methods for solving multi-criteria decision problems have been suggested for assessing criteria weights requiring more exact input data than users normally are able to provide. In particular, the selection of adequate criteria weights is difficult and in order to be realistic, other methods must be introduced. One class of such methods is to introduce so called surrogate weights, where numerical weights are assigned to each criterion based on a cardinal or ordinal rank ordering, assumed to represent the information extracted from the user. One essential problem is the robustness of such methods. In this article, we compare state-of-the-art methods based on surrogate weights from the literature and, utilising a simulation approach, discuss underlying assumptions and robustness properties. This results in a quantitative measurement of these weighting methods and a methodology applicable also to forthcoming methods.
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| 30. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(author)
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A second-order-based decision tool for evaluating decisions under conditions of severe uncertainty
- 2020
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In: Knowledge-Based Systems. - : Elsevier BV. - 0950-7051 .- 1872-7409. ; 191
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The requirement to assign precise numerical values to model entities such as criteria weights, probabilities, and utilities is too strong in most real-life decision situations, and hence alternative representations and evaluation mechanisms are important to consider. In this paper, we discuss the DecideIT 3.0 state-of-the-art software decision tool and demonstrate its functionality using a real-life case. The tool is based on a belief mass interpretation of the decision information, where the components are imprecise by means of intervals and qualitative estimates, and we discuss how multiplicative and additive aggregations influence the resulting distribution over the expected values.
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| 31. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(author)
-
An improvement to swing techniques for elicitation in MCDM methods
- 2019
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In: Knowledge-Based Systems. - : Elsevier BV. - 0950-7051 .- 1872-7409. ; 168, s. 70-79
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Several approaches that utilise various questioning procedures to elicit criteria weights exist, ranging from direct rating and point allocation to more elaborate methods. However, decision makers often find it difficult to understand how these methods work and how they should be comprehended. This article discusses the SWING family of elicitation techniques and suggests a refined method: the P-SWING method. Based on this, we provide an integrated framework for elicitation, modelling and evaluation of multi-criteria decision problems.
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| 32. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(author)
-
Architectural Considerations for Decision Analysis Software
- 2016
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In: New Trends in Software Methodologies, Tools and Techniques. - : IOS Press. - 9781614996736 - 9781614996743 ; , s. 3-14
-
Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In classic decision theory, it is assumed that a decision-maker can assign precise numerical values corresponding to the true value of each consequence, as well as precise numerical probabilities for their occurrences. However, in real-life situations, the ordering of alternatives from most to least preferred is often a delicate matter and an adequate mathematical representation is crucial. In attempting to address real-life problems, where uncertainty about data prevails, some kind of representation of imprecise information is important and several have been proposed. However, general methods have turned out to be insufficient and we demonstrate in this article that there is not one set of coding techniques that result in the best performing software for decision analysis.
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| 33. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(author)
-
Augmenting Ordinal Methods of Attribute Weight Approximation
- 2014
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In: Decision Analysis. - : Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS). - 1545-8490 .- 1545-8504. ; 11:1, s. 21-26
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Multicriteria decision aid (MCDA) methods have been around for quite some time. However, the elicitation of preference information in MCDA processes and the lack of supporting practical means are problematic in real-life applications. Various proposals have been made for how to eliminate some of the obstacles and methods for introducing so-called surrogate weights have proliferated in the form of ordinal ranking methods for criteria weights. Considering the decision quality, one main problem is that the input information allowed in ordinal methods is sometimes too restricted. At the same time, decision makers often possess more background information, for example, regarding the relative strengths of the criteria, and might want to use that. We propose combined methods for facilitating the elicitation process and show how this provides a way to use partial information from the strength of preference judgment over weights in assessing weights for multiattribute utility functions.
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| 34. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(author)
-
Automatic Criteria Weight Generation for Multi-Criteria Decision Making under Uncertainty
- 2020
-
In: Innovation for Systems Information and Decision. - Cham : Springer. - 9783030643980 - 9783030643997
-
Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Real-life decision situations almost invariably involve large uncertainties. In particular, there are several difficulties connected with the elicitation of probabilities, utilities, and criteria weights. In this article, we explore and test a robust multi-criteria weight generating method covering a broad set of decision situations, but which still is reasonably simple to use. We cover an important class of methods for criteria weight elicitation and propose the use of a reinterpretation of an efficient family (rank exponent) of methods for modeling and evaluating multi-criteria decision problems under uncertainty. We find that the rank exponent (RX) family generates the most efficient and robust weighs and works very well under different assumptions. Furthermore, It is stable under varying assumptions regarding the decision-makers' mindset and internal modeling. We also provide an example to show how the algorithm can be used in a decision-making context. It is exemplified with a problem of selecting strategies for combatting COVID-19.
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| 35. |
- Danielson, Mats, 1959-, et al.
(author)
-
Comparing Cardinal and Ordinal Ranking in MCDM Methods
- 2022
-
In: Multicriteria and Optimization Models for Risk, Reliability, and Maintenance Decision Analysis. - Cham : Springer. - 9783030896461 - 9783030896478 ; , s. 29-40
-
Book chapter (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Det finns flera MCDM-metoder som försöker få fram kriterievikter, allt från direktbetyg och poängtilldelningsmetoder till mer utarbetade. För att underlätta viktframkallningen använder vissa av tillvägagångssätten framkallningsmetoder där prospekt rangordnas med hjälp av information om ordinär betydelse, medan andra använder kardinalinformation. Metoder utvärderas ibland i fallstudier, eller mer formellt genom att använda systematiska simuleringar. Dessutom har behandlingen av motsvarande metoder för hanteringen av alternativets värden ibland försummats. Det finns en önskan om metoder med så lite kognitiv efterfrågan som möjligt, vilket minskar hindret för att överhuvudtaget använda sådana metoder. I den här artikeln utforskar vi förenklade modeller som blandar kardinal- och ordinalsatser och visar vilka av dem som är mer effektiva än etablerade metoder. Det visar sig att vikter är mycket mer okänsliga för kardinalitet än värden, vilket har konsekvenser för alla rangordningsmetoder.
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| 36. |
- Danielson, Mats
(author)
-
Computational decision analysis
- 1997
-
Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- This thesis presents a new framework and a tool for decisionmaking using uncertan information. It is called DELTA after itsprimary decision rule. The objective is to present a method forevaluating choices under uncertainty. The nature of mostinformation available to decision makers is vague andimprecise, be it information for human managers inorganisations or for process agents in a distributed computerenvironment. In spite of this, many traditional models fordecisions disregard this state of affairs. Some more modernapproaches address the problem of vagueness, but many of themconcentrate more on representation and less on evaluation. Theemphasis in this thesis is more on evaluation, and therepresentation used is that of standard probability theory.The approach is interdisciplinary and draws on ideas fromthe areas of operational research and artificial intelligenceas well as from statistical decision theory. It allows thedecision maker to be as deliberately imprecise as he feels isnecessary as well as providing him with the means forexpressing varying degrees of imprecision in the inputstatements. This leads to a more natural relationship betweenthe decision maker and the support tool. The purpose of themethod is not to replace decision makers with machines. On thecontrary, an objective is to increase the decision maker'sability to make sound decisions.A longer summary and updated versions of the core chaptersof the thesis are available athttp://www.dsv.su.se/~mad/thesis.htm1KEYWORDS:Decision Analysis, Decision Support,Multi-Agent Systems, Uncertain Reasoning
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| 37. |
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| 38. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(author)
-
Computing Upper and Lower Bounds in Interval Decision Trees
- 2007
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In: European Journal of Operational Research. - : Elsevier BV. - 0377-2217 .- 1872-6860. ; 181:2, s. 808-816
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This article presents algorithms for computing optima in decision trees with imprecise probabilities and utilities. In tree models involving uncertainty expressed as intervals and/or relations, it is necessary for the evaluation to compute the upper and lower bounds of the expected values. Already in its simplest form, computing a maximum of expectancies leads to quadratic programming (QP) problems. Unfortunately, standard optimization methods based on QP (and BLP - bilinear programming) are too slow for the evaluation of decision trees in computer tools with interactive response times. Needless to say, the problems with computational complexity are even more emphasized in multi-linear programming (MLP) problems arising from multi-level decision trees. Since standard techniques are not particularly useful for these purposes, other, non-standard algorithms must be used. The algorithms presented here enable user interaction in decision tools and are equally applicable to all multi-linear programming problems sharing the same structure as a decision tree.
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| 39. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(author)
-
Cross-disciplinary research in analytic decision support systems
- 2006
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In: ITI 2006. - Zagreb : University Computing Centre SRCE, University of Zagreb. - 9537138054 ; , s. 123-128
-
Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A main problem in nearly all contexts is that unguided decision making is tremendously difficult and can lead to inefficient decision processes and undesired consequences. Therefore, decision support systems (DSSs) are of prime concern to any organization and there have been numerous approaches to such from, e.g., computational, mathematical, financial, philosophical, psychological, and sociological angles. However, a key observation is that efficient decision making is not easily performed by using methods from one discipline only. The case is rather that if real world decision making is taken seriously, several aspects must be included. This article describes some efforts of the DECIDE research group for approaching decision making and developing DSSs in a cross-disciplinary environment.
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| 40. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(author)
-
Cross-Disciplinary Research in Analytic Decision Support Systems
- 2006
-
In: ITI 2006. - Zagreb : University Computing Centre SRCE, University of Zagreb. - 9537138054 ; , s. 123-128
-
Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A main problem in decision support contexts is that unguided decision making is difficult and can lead to inefficient decision processes and undesired consequences. Therefore, decision support systems (DSSs) are of prime concern to any organization and there have been numerous approaches to delivering decision support from, e.g., computational, mathematical, financial, philosophical, psychological, and sociological angles. A key observation, however, is that effective and efficient decision making is not easily achieved by using methods from one discipline only. This paper describes some efforts made by the DECIDE Research Group to approach DSS development and decision making tools in a cross-disciplinary way.
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| 41. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(author)
-
Decideit 3.0 : Software for Second-Order Based Decision Evaluations
- 2019
-
In: Proceedings of Machine Learning Research. - : JMLR-JOURNAL MACHINE LEARNING RESEARCH. ; , s. 121-124, s. 121-124
-
Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In this paper, we discuss representation and evaluation in the DecideIT 3.0 decision tool which is based on a belief mass interpretation of the background information. The decision components are imprecise in terms of intervals and qualitative estimates and we emphasise how multiplicative and additive aggregations influence the resulting belief distribution over the expected values.
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| 42. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(author)
-
Decision Evaluation of Three Flood Management Strategies.
- 2003
-
In: FLAIRS' 03 Recent Advances in Artificial Intelligence. - Menlo Park, Calif. : AAAI Press. - 1577351770 ; , s. 491-495
-
Conference paper (other academic/artistic)abstract
- This article describes the application of computational decision analytic techniques for a national policy decision. It constitutes an example of the increasing use of modern computational decision methods to assist in decision-making in society. An integrated flood catastrophe model is presented as well as some results of a case study made in the Upper Tisza region in north-eastern Hungary, viz. the Palad-Csecsei basin. Background data was provided through the Hungarian Academy of Sciences and complemented by interviews with different stakeholders in the region. Based upon these data, where a large degree of uncertainty is prevailing, we demonstrate how an implementation of a simulation and decision analytical model can provide insights into the effects of imposing different policy options for a flood risk management program in the region. We focus herein primarily on general options for designing a public/private insurance and reinsurance system for Hungary. It should, however, be emphasized that the main purpose of this article is not to provide any definite recommendations, but rather to present a methodology for handling a set of policy packages with the aim of gaining a consensus among stakeholders.
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| 43. |
- Danielson, Mats, 1959-, et al.
(author)
-
Decision Process Support for Participatory Democracy
- 2008
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In: Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis. - : Wiley. - 1057-9214 .- 1099-1360. ; 15:1, s. 15-30
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper presents a project and case study integrating decision methods into democratic processes. The case discussed is a set of three complicated decisions in a municipality in Sweden. The decisions had been postponed on several occasions prior to bringing in the method described in the paper. The method employed consists of two main parts. The interaction part contains the communication channels directed to the stakeholders. The decision-process part consists of a three-layered working process model. As a part of the method, the project was highly visible on the web. Citizens were encouraged to submit material to the project. All intermediate results of the process were continuously published, enhancing transparency. For each decision, the analysis consisted of comparing all alternatives, taking the respective criteria into account as weighted or ranked by the participants. A method for recording compromises analytically was also used. The purpose was not to replace the political process but to support it in a structured way.
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| 44. |
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| 45. |
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| 46. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(author)
-
Development of Software for Decision Analysis
- 2013
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In: 12th IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Software Methodologies, Tools and Techniques. - : IEEE Computer Society. - 9781479904211 ; , s. 171-177
-
Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- To be useful in reality, decision analytical tools must be able to handle imprecise information. This paper presents the algorithmic software design against a background of an evaluation method for analysing decision situations under semi-strong uncertainty. The design is built on a relaxation of the requirement for precise utilities, probabilities, and weights. To handle this, the calculations involved become computationally intensive to match an interactive work flow and the approach required implementation of new algorithms. We describe some particularly interesting implementation aspects of these and show how these computations can be tractable.
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| 47. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(author)
-
Distribution of Belief in Decision Trees
- 2007
-
In: International Journal of Approximate Reasoning. - 0888-613X .- 1873-4731. ; 46:2, s. pp. 387-407
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)
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| 48. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(author)
-
Distribution of expected utility in decision trees
- 2007
-
In: International Journal of Approximate Reasoning. - : Elsevier BV. - 0888-613X .- 1873-4731. ; 46:2, s. 387-407
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Evaluation of decision trees in which uncertain information is present is complicated. Especially when the tree has some depth, i.e. consists of more than one level, the effects of the choice of representation and evaluation procedures are significant. Second-order representation and evaluation may significantly increase a decisionmaker's understanding of a decision situation when handling aggregations of imprecise representations, as is the case in decision trees or influence diagrams, while the use of only first-order results gives an incomplete picture. Furthermore, due to the effects on the distribution of belief over the intervals of expected utilities, the Gamma-maximin decision rule seems to be unnecessarily pessimistic as the belief in neighbourhoods of points near interval boundaries is usually lower than in neighbourhoods near the centre. Due to this, a generalized expected utility is proposed. The results in this paper apply also to approaches which do not explicitly deal with second-order information, such as standard decision trees or probabilistic networks using only first-order concepts, for example upper and lower bounds. Furthermore, the results also apply to other, non-probabilistic weighted trees such as multi-criteria weight trees.
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| 49. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(author)
-
Efficient and Sustainable Risk Management in Large Project Portfolios
- 2018
-
In: Perspectives in Business Informatics Research. - Cham : Springer. - 9783319999500 - 9783319999517 ; , s. 143-157
-
Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In an ever-increasing competitive business environment, it has become increasingly important to be able to obtain efficient and sustainable business operations not only by efficient core procedures but also by being able to minimise losses incurred by risk taking. The latter by handling both operational risks and financial risks in a unified model. This is important not least in businesses that handle sets of simultaneous large projects, which is the topic of risk handling in project portfolios. In this paper, we present a novel method for business risk handling for project portfolios under strong uncertainty. The method is based on event trees representing each adverse consequence modelled, together with mitigation costs and effects. The aggregation of all consequences for all projects together constitutes the risk portfolio for the business. This method is used in one of Sweden’s largest manufacturing enterprises having a vast portfolio of projects in the form of ongoing tenders for orders.
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| 50. |
- Danielson, Mats, 1959-, et al.
(author)
-
Evaluating Multi-criteria Decisions Under Conditions of Strong Uncertainty
- 2022
-
In: Multicriteria and Optimization Models for Risk, Reliability, and Maintenance Decision Analysis. - Cham : Springer. - 9783030896478 - 9783030896461 ; , s. 41-55
-
Book chapter (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Decisions under risk and multi-criteria decisions are unfortunately usually studied independently, despite the fact that in actual decision-making problems often contain several criteria, as well as uncertain outcomes. This is unnecessary since the two approaches can quite straightforwardly be used within the same framework. This article describes how it can be done when the decision components are imprecise in terms of intervals and qualitative estimates. We also demonstrate an implementation of the theory on a real-life decision problem.
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