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| 3. |
- Beam, Christopher R., et al.
(författare)
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Midlife study of the Louisville Twins : Connecting cognitive development to biological and cognitive aging
- 2020
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Ingår i: Behavior Genetics. - : Springer. - 0001-8244 .- 1573-3297. ; 50:2, s. 73-83
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Louisville Twin Study (LTS) began in 1958 and became a premier longitudinal twin study of cognitive development. The LTS continuously collected data from twins through 2000 after which the study closed indefinitely due to lack of funding. Now that the majority of the sample is age 40 or older (61.36%, N = 1770), the LTS childhood data can be linked to midlife cognitive functioning, among other physical, biological, social, and psychiatric outcomes. We report results from two pilot studies in anticipation of beginning the midlife phase of the LTS. The first pilot study was a participant tracking study, in which we showed that approximately 90% of the Louisville families randomly sampled (N = 203) for the study could be found. The second pilot study consisted of 40 in-person interviews in which twins completed cognitive, memory, biometric, and functional ability measures. The main purpose of the second study was to correlate midlife measures of cognitive functioning to a measure of biological age, which is an alternative index to chronological age that quantifies age as a function of the breakdown of structural and functional physiological systems, and then to relate both of these measures to twins’ cognitive developmental trajectories. Midlife IQ was uncorrelated with biological age (−.01) while better scores on episodic memory more strongly correlated with lower biological age (−.19 to −.31). As expected, midlife IQ positively correlated with IQ measures collected throughout childhood and adolescence. Additionally, positive linear rates of change in FSIQ scores in childhood significantly correlated with biological age (−.68), physical functioning (.71), and functional ability (−.55), suggesting that cognitive development predicts lower biological age, better physical functioning, and better functional ability. In sum, the Louisville twins can be relocated to investigate whether and how early and midlife cognitive and physical health factors contribute to cognitive aging.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Davis, Deborah W, et al.
(författare)
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The Louisville Twin Study : Past, Present and Future.
- 2019
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Ingår i: Twin Research and Human Genetics. - : Cambridge University Press. - 1832-4274 .- 1839-2628. ; 22, s. 735-740
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Louisville Twin Study (LTS) is nationally recognized as one of the largest and most comprehensive studies of child development related to multiple birth status. The LTS is unique because of the extensive longitudinal face-to-face assessments, the frequency of data collection, the inclusion of data on additional family members (i.e., parents, siblings, grandparents; and later, twins' own spouses and children), and the variety of data collection methods used. Data preservation efforts began in 2008 and are largely complete, although efforts are ongoing to obtain funding to convert the electronic data to a newer format. A pilot study was completed in the summer of 2018 to bring the twins, who are now middle-aged, back for testing. A grant is currently under review to extend the pilot study to include all former participants who are now ≥40 years of age. Opportunities for collaboration are welcome.
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| 8. |
- Finkel, Deborah, et al.
(författare)
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Socioeconomic status impacts genetic influences on the longitudinal dynamic relationship between temperament and general cognitive ability in childhood : The Louisville Twin Study
- 2022
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Ingår i: Child Development. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0009-3920 .- 1467-8624. ; 93:2, s. e135-e148
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The current analysis investigates genetic and environmental influences on the bidirectional relationships between temperament and general cognitive ability (GCA). Measures of GCA and three temperament factors (persistence, approach, and reactivity) were collected from 486 children ages 4-9 years (80% white, 50% female) from the Louisville Twin Study from 1976 to 1998. The results indicated a bidirectional dynamic model of temperament influencing subsequent GCA and GCA influencing subsequent temperament. The dynamic relationship between temperament and GCA arose primarily from shared genetic variance, particularly in families with higher socioeconomic status, where input from temperament contributed on average 20% to genetic variance in GCA versus 0% in lower SES families.
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| 9. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 14. |
- Womack, Sean R., et al.
(författare)
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Co-recovery of physical size and cognitive ability from infancy to adolescence : A twin study
- 2024
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Ingår i: Child Development. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0009-3920 .- 1467-8624. ; 95:4, s. 1367-1383
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study tested phenotypic and biometric associations between physical and cognitive catch-up growth in a community sample of twins (n = 1285, 51.8% female, 89.3% White). Height and weight were measured at up to 17 time points between birth and 15 years, and cognitive ability was assessed at up to 16 time points between 3 months and 15 years. Weight and length at birth were positively associated with cognitive abilities in infancy and adolescence (r's =.16–.51). More rapid weight catch-up growth was associated with slower, steadier cognitive catch-up growth. Shared and nonshared environmental factors accounted for positive associations between physical size at birth and cognitive outcomes. Findings highlight the role of prenatal environmental experiences in physical and cognitive co-development.
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| 15. |
- Womack, Sean R., et al.
(författare)
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Genetic and Environmental Correlates of the Nonlinear Recovery of Cognitive Ability in Twins
- 2022
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Ingår i: Developmental Psychology. - : American Psychological Association (APA). - 0012-1649 .- 1939-0599. ; 58:3, s. 535-550
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Twins regularly score nearly a standard deviation below the population mean on standardized measures of cognitive development in infancy but recover to the population mean by early childhood, making rapid gains through the toddler years. To date, only polynomial growth models have been fit to model cognitive recovery across childhood, limiting the applicability of the growth parameters to later developmental periods. We fit a nonlinear asymptotic Gompertz growth model to prospective cognitive scores from 1,153 individual twins from 578 families (47.9% male, 91.5% White, 61.6% monozygotic) measured at 16 time points between 3 months and 15 years. Twins displayed a lower asymptote of 86.47 (.90 SD below the population mean) and gained on average 17.01 points, achieving an upper asymptote of 103.48. Growth was observed to be most rapid at 3.26 years, highlighting the importance of the toddler years in cognitive development. Biometric analyses revealed that shared environmental factors accounted for the majority of the variance in initial cognitive ability as well as asymptotic growth in cognitive ability. Gestational age and family socioeconomic status (SES) were robust predictors of cognitive growth. Results from the present study provide insight into the growth processes underlying the recovery of cognitive ability to the population mean for children evincing slight delays in their initial cognitive ability. In particular, findings highlight prenatal factors and family economic resources as important aspects of the environment in the recovery of cognitive ability.
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| 16. |
- Adelani, David Ifeoluwa, et al.
(författare)
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MasakhaNER: Named Entity Recognition for African Languages
- 2021
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Ingår i: Transactions of the Association for Computational Linguistics. - : MIT Press. - 2307-387X. ; 9, s. 1116-1131
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We take a step towards addressing the under-representation of the African continent in NLP research by bringing together different stakeholders to create the first large, publicly available, high-quality dataset for named entity recognition (NER) in ten African languages. We detail the characteristics of these languages to help researchers and practitioners better understand the challenges they pose for NER tasks. We analyze our datasets and conduct an extensive empirical evaluation of state-of-the-art methods across both supervised and transfer learning settings. Finally, we release the data, code, and models to inspire future research on African NLP.
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| 17. |
- Adolphe, Christelle, et al.
(författare)
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SOX9 Defines Distinct Populations of Cells in SHH Medulloblastoma but Is Not Required for Math1-Driven Tumor Formation
- 2021
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Ingår i: Molecular Cancer Research. - : American Association For Cancer Research (AACR). - 1541-7786 .- 1557-3125. ; 19:11, s. 1831-1839
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Medulloblastoma is the most common malignant pediatric brain tumor and there is an urgent need for molecularly targeted and subgroup-specific therapies. The stem cell factor SOX9, has been proposed as a potential therapeutic target for the treatment of Sonic Hedgehog medulloblastoma (SHH-MB) subgroup tumors, given its role as a downstream target of Hedgehog signaling and in functionally promoting SHH-MB metastasis and treatment resistance. However, the functional requirement for SOX9 in the genesis of medulloblastoma remains to be determined. Here we report a previously undocumented level of SOX9 expression exclusively in proliferating granule cell precursors ( GCP) of the postnatal mouse cerebellum, which function as the medulloblastoma-initiating cells of SHH-MBs. Wild-type GCPs express comparatively lower levels of SOX9 than neural stem cells and mature astroglia and SOX9(low) GCP-like tumor cells constitute the bulk of both infant (Math1Cre: Ptch1(lox/lox)) and adult (Ptch1(LacZ/+)) SHH-MB mouse models. Human medulloblastoma single-cell RNA data analyses reveal three distinct SOX9 populations present in SHH-MB and noticeably absent in other medulloblastoma subgroups: SOX9(+)MATH1(+) (GCP), SOX9(+)GFAP(+) (astrocytes) and SOX9(+)MATH1(+)GFAP(+) (potential tumor-derived astrocytes). To functionally address whether SOX9 is required as a downstream effector of Hedgehog signaling in medulloblastoma tumor cells, we ablated Sox9 using a Math1Cre model system. Surprisingly, targeted ablation of Sox9 in GCPs (Math1Cre:Sox9(lox/lox)) revealed no overt phenotype and loss of Sox9 in SHH-MB (Math1Cre:Ptch1(lox/lox);Sox9(lox/lox)) does not affect tumor formation.
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| 18. |
- Beal, Jacob, et al.
(författare)
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Robust estimation of bacterial cell count from optical density
- 2020
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Ingår i: Communications Biology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2399-3642. ; 3:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Optical density (OD) is widely used to estimate the density of cells in liquid culture, but cannot be compared between instruments without a standardized calibration protocol and is challenging to relate to actual cell count. We address this with an interlaboratory study comparing three simple, low-cost, and highly accessible OD calibration protocols across 244 laboratories, applied to eight strains of constitutive GFP-expressing E. coli. Based on our results, we recommend calibrating OD to estimated cell count using serial dilution of silica microspheres, which produces highly precise calibration (95.5% of residuals <1.2-fold), is easily assessed for quality control, also assesses instrument effective linear range, and can be combined with fluorescence calibration to obtain units of Molecules of Equivalent Fluorescein (MEFL) per cell, allowing direct comparison and data fusion with flow cytometry measurements: in our study, fluorescence per cell measurements showed only a 1.07-fold mean difference between plate reader and flow cytometry data.
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| 19. |
- Beecham, Ashley H, et al.
(författare)
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Analysis of immune-related loci identifies 48 new susceptibility variants for multiple sclerosis.
- 2013
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Ingår i: Nature genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-1718 .- 1061-4036. ; 45:11, s. 1353-60
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Using the ImmunoChip custom genotyping array, we analyzed 14,498 subjects with multiple sclerosis and 24,091 healthy controls for 161,311 autosomal variants and identified 135 potentially associated regions (P < 1.0 × 10(-4)). In a replication phase, we combined these data with previous genome-wide association study (GWAS) data from an independent 14,802 subjects with multiple sclerosis and 26,703 healthy controls. In these 80,094 individuals of European ancestry, we identified 48 new susceptibility variants (P < 5.0 × 10(-8)), 3 of which we found after conditioning on previously identified variants. Thus, there are now 110 established multiple sclerosis risk variants at 103 discrete loci outside of the major histocompatibility complex. With high-resolution Bayesian fine mapping, we identified five regions where one variant accounted for more than 50% of the posterior probability of association. This study enhances the catalog of multiple sclerosis risk variants and illustrates the value of fine mapping in the resolution of GWAS signals.
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| 20. |
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| 21. |
- Giangrande, E. J., et al.
(författare)
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Genetically informed, multilevel analysis of the Flynn Effect across four decades and three WISC versions
- 2022
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Ingår i: Child Development. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0009-3920 .- 1467-8624. ; 93:1, s. e47-e58
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study investigated the systematic rise in cognitive ability scores over generations, known as the Flynn Effect, across middle childhood and early adolescence (7–15 years; 291 monozygotic pairs, 298 dizygotic pairs; 89% White). Leveraging the unique structure of the Louisville Twin Study (longitudinal data collected continuously from 1957 to 1999 using the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children [WISC], WISC–R, and WISC–III ed.), multilevel analyses revealed between-subjects Flynn Effects—as both decrease in mean scores upon test re-standardization and increase in mean scores across cohorts—as well as within-child Flynn Effects on cognitive growth across age. Overall gains equaled approximately three IQ points per decade. Novel genetically informed analyses suggested that individual sensitivity to the Flynn Effect was moderated by an interplay of genetic and environmental factors.
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| 22. |
- Junghans, Victoria, et al.
(författare)
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Effects of a local auxiliary protein on the two-dimensional affinity of a TCR-peptide MHC interaction
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Cell Science. - : The Company of Biologists Ltd.. - 0021-9533 .- 1477-9137. ; 133:15
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The affinity of T-cell receptors (TCRs) for major histocompatibility complex molecules (MHCs) presenting cognate antigens likely determines whether T cells initiate immune responses, or not. There exist few measurements of two-dimensional (2D) TCR-MHC interactions, and the effect of auxiliary proteins on binding is unexplored. Here, Jurkat T-cells expressing the MHC molecule HLA-DQ8-glia-α1 and the ligand of an adhesion protein (rat CD2) were allowed to bind supported lipid bilayers (SLBs) presenting fluorescently-labelled L3-12 TCR and rat CD2, allowing measurements of binding unconfounded by cell signaling effects or co-receptor binding. The 2D Kd for L3-12 TCR binding to HLA-DQ8-glia-α1, 14±5 molecules/μm2, was only marginally influenced by including CD2 up to ∼200 bound molecules/μm2 but higher CD2 densities reduced the affinity up to 1.9-fold. Cell-SLB contact size increased steadily with ligand density without affecting binding for contacts up to ∼20% of total cell area but beyond this lamellipodia appeared, giving an apparent increase in bound receptors of up to 50%. Our findings show how parameters other than the specific protein-protein interaction can influence binding behavior at cell-cell contacts.
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| 23. |
- Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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| 24. |
- Kaufman, Darrell, et al.
(författare)
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A global database of Holocene paleotemperature records
- 2020
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Ingår i: Scientific Data. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2052-4463. ; 7:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A comprehensive database of paleoclimate records is needed to place recent warming into the longer-term context of natural climate variability. We present a global compilation of quality-controlled, published, temperature-sensitive proxy records extending back 12,000 years through the Holocene. Data were compiled from 679 sites where time series cover at least 4000 years, are resolved at sub-millennial scale (median spacing of 400 years or finer) and have at least one age control point every 3000 years, with cut-off values slackened in data-sparse regions. The data derive from lake sediment (51%), marine sediment (31%), peat (11%), glacier ice (3%), and other natural archives. The database contains 1319 records, including 157 from the Southern Hemisphere. The multi-proxy database comprises paleotemperature time series based on ecological assemblages, as well as biophysical and geochemical indicators that reflect mean annual or seasonal temperatures, as encoded in the database. This database can be used to reconstruct the spatiotemporal evolution of Holocene temperature at global to regional scales, and is publicly available in Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format.
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| 25. |
- Kilpeläinen, Tuomas O, et al.
(författare)
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Genetic variation near IRS1 associates with reduced adiposity and an impaired metabolic profile.
- 2011
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Ingår i: Nature genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-1718 .- 1061-4036. ; 43:8, s. 753-60
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Genome-wide association studies have identified 32 loci influencing body mass index, but this measure does not distinguish lean from fat mass. To identify adiposity loci, we meta-analyzed associations between ∼2.5 million SNPs and body fat percentage from 36,626 individuals and followed up the 14 most significant (P < 10(-6)) independent loci in 39,576 individuals. We confirmed a previously established adiposity locus in FTO (P = 3 × 10(-26)) and identified two new loci associated with body fat percentage, one near IRS1 (P = 4 × 10(-11)) and one near SPRY2 (P = 3 × 10(-8)). Both loci contain genes with potential links to adipocyte physiology. Notably, the body-fat-decreasing allele near IRS1 is associated with decreased IRS1 expression and with an impaired metabolic profile, including an increased visceral to subcutaneous fat ratio, insulin resistance, dyslipidemia, risk of diabetes and coronary artery disease and decreased adiponectin levels. Our findings provide new insights into adiposity and insulin resistance.
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| 26. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 27. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 28. |
- Pennells, Lisa, et al.
(författare)
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Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration : individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies
- 2019
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 40:7, s. 621-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after ‘recalibration’, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.Methods and results: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at ‘high’ 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29–39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22–24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44–51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37–39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms.Conclusion: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.
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| 29. |
- Pilotto, Francesca, et al.
(författare)
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Meta-analysis of multidecadal biodiversity trends in Europe
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Nature. - 2041-1723. ; 11:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Local biodiversity trends over time are likely to be decoupled from global trends, as local processes may compensate or counteract global change. We analyze 161 long-term biological time series (15-91 years) collected across Europe, using a comprehensive dataset comprising ~6,200 marine, freshwater and terrestrial taxa. We test whether (i) local long-term biodiversity trends are consistent among biogeoregions, realms and taxonomic groups, and (ii) changes in biodiversity correlate with regional climate and local conditions. Our results reveal that local trends of abundance, richness and diversity differ among biogeoregions, realms and taxonomic groups, demonstrating that biodiversity changes at local scale are often complex and cannot be easily generalized. However, we find increases in richness and abundance with increasing temperature and naturalness as well as a clear spatial pattern in changes in community composition (i.e. temporal taxonomic turnover) in most biogeoregions of Northern and Eastern Europe. The global biodiversity decline might conceal complex local and group-specific trends. Here the authors report a quantitative synthesis of longterm biodiversity trends across Europe, showing how, despite overall increase in biodiversity metric and stability in abundance, trends differ between regions, ecosystem types, and taxa.
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| 30. |
- Sawcer, Stephen, et al.
(författare)
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Genetic risk and a primary role for cell-mediated immune mechanisms in multiple sclerosis
- 2011
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 476:7359, s. 214-219
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Multiple sclerosis is a common disease of the central nervous system in which the interplay between inflammatory and neurodegenerative processes typically results in intermittent neurological disturbance followed by progressive accumulation of disability. Epidemiological studies have shown that genetic factors are primarily responsible for the substantially increased frequency of the disease seen in the relatives of affected individuals, and systematic attempts to identify linkage in multiplex families have confirmed that variation within the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) exerts the greatest individual effect on risk. Modestly powered genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have enabled more than 20 additional risk loci to be identified and have shown that multiple variants exerting modest individual effects have a key role in disease susceptibility. Most of the genetic architecture underlying susceptibility to the disease remains to be defined and is anticipated to require the analysis of sample sizes that are beyond the numbers currently available to individual research groups. In a collaborative GWAS involving 9,772 cases of European descent collected by 23 research groups working in 15 different countries, we have replicated almost all of the previously suggested associations and identified at least a further 29 novel susceptibility loci. Within the MHC we have refined the identity of the HLA-DRB1 risk alleles and confirmed that variation in the HLA-A gene underlies the independent protective effect attributable to the class I region. Immunologically relevant genes are significantly overrepresented among those mapping close to the identified loci and particularly implicate T-helper-cell differentiation in the pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis.
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| 31. |
- Taghdiri, Foad, et al.
(författare)
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Neurofilament-Light in Former Athletes: A Potential Biomarker of Neurodegeneration and Progression.
- 2020
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Ingår i: European journal of neurology. - : Wiley. - 1468-1331 .- 1351-5101. ; 27:7, s. 1170-1177
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study aimed to evaluate serum neurofilament light chain (NF-L) levels in former professional contact sports athletes with multiple concussions (ExPro) as a potential biomarker of neurodegeneration and predictor of white-matter (WM) abnormality progression.Concentrations of NF-L in the serum of fifty-two cognitively normal ExPro and twenty-one healthy controls (HC) with no history of concussions were measured using single molecule array (Simoa) technology. Both groups underwent neuroimaging at the time of serum collection. Eighteen of the participants in the ExPro underwent follow-up imaging after 2 years.Levels of serum NF-L were not significantly different between the ExPro and HC. However, in the ExPro group, NF-L levels were positively correlated with the mean diffusivity (MD) of corpus callosum (CC) and fornix, and total ventricular volume. Moreover, NF-L levels in the ExPro group at the first visit were positively correlated with the amount of increase in CC MD at the 2-year follow-up.NF-L levels reflect neuronal changes in the ExPro group and predict the extent of decrease in white matter integrity over time. Serum NF-L might be a biomarker of neurodegeneration and WM abnormality progression in ExPro.
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| 32. |
- Vasilevskaya, Anna, et al.
(författare)
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18F-Flortaucipir (AV1451) imaging identifies grey matter atrophy in retired athletes
- 2024
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Ingår i: JOURNAL OF NEUROLOGY. - 0340-5354 .- 1432-1459.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BackgroundThe long-term consequences of concussions may include pathological neurodegeneration as seen in Alzheimer's disease (AD) and chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE). Tau-PET showed promise as a method to detect tau pathology of CTE, but more studies are neededObjectiveThis study aimed (1) to assess the association of imaging evidence of tau pathology with brain volumes in retired athletes and (2) to examine the relationship between tau-PET and neuropsychological functioning.MethodsFormer contact sport athletes were recruited through the Canadian Football League Alumni Association or the Canadian Concussion Centre clinic. Athletes completed MRI, [18F]flortaucipir tau-PET, and a neuropsychological battery. Memory composite was created by averaging the Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test and Rey Visual Design Learning Test z-scores. Grey matter (GM) volumes were age/intracranial volume corrected using normal control MRIs. Tau-PET % positivity in GM was calculated as the number of positive voxels (>= 1.3 standardized uptake value ratio (SUVR)/total voxels).Results47 retired contact sport athletes negative for AD (age:51 +/- 14; concussions/athlete:15 +/- 2) and 54 normal controls (age:50 +/- 13) were included. Tau-PET positive voxels had significantly lower GM volumes, compared to tau-PET negative voxels (- 0.37 +/- 0.41 vs. - 0.31 +/- 0.37, paired p = .006). There was a significant relationship between GM tau-PET % positivity and memory composite score (r = - .366, p = .02), controlled for age, PET scanner, and PET scan duration. There was no relationship between tau-PET measures and concussion number, or years of sport played.ConclusionA higher tau-PET signal was associated with reduced GM volumes and lower memory scores. Tau-PET may be useful for identifying those at risk for neurodegeneration.
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| 33. |
- Wolters, Frank J, et al.
(författare)
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Twenty-seven-year time trends in dementia incidence in Europe and the United States: The Alzheimer Cohorts Consortium.
- 2020
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Ingår i: Neurology. - 1526-632X. ; 95:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To determine changes in the incidence of dementia between 1988 and 2015.This analysis was performed in aggregated data from individuals >65 years of age in 7 population-based cohort studies in the United States and Europe from the Alzheimer Cohort Consortium. First, we calculated age- and sex-specific incidence rates for all-cause dementia, and then defined nonoverlapping 5-year epochs within each study to determine trends in incidence. Estimates of change per 10-year interval were pooled and results are presented combined and stratified by sex.Of 49,202 individuals, 4,253 (8.6%) developed dementia. The incidence rate of dementia increased with age, similarly for women and men, ranging from about 4 per 1,000 person-years in individuals aged 65-69 years to 65 per 1,000 person-years for those aged 85-89 years. The incidence rate of dementia declined by 13% per calendar decade (95% confidence interval [CI], 7%-19%), consistently across studies, and somewhat more pronouncedly in men than in women (24% [95% CI 14%-32%] vs 8% [0%-15%]).The incidence rate of dementia in Europe and North America has declined by 13% per decade over the past 25 years, consistently across studies. Incidence is similar for men and women, although declines were somewhat more profound in men. These observations call for sustained efforts to finding the causes for this decline, as well as determining their validity in geographically and ethnically diverse populations.
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