| 1. |
- Meier, H E Marcus, et al.
(author)
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A multiprocessor coupled ice-ocean model for the Baltic Sea: Application to salt inflow
- 2003
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In: Journal of Geophysical Research. - 0148-0227 .- 2156-2202. ; 108:C8, s. 3273-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Within the Swedish Regional Climate Modeling Program, SWECLIM, a three-dimensional (3-D) coupled ice-ocean model for the Baltic Sea has been developed to simulate physical processes on timescales of hours to decades. The code has been developed based on the massively parallel version of the Ocean Circulation Climate Advanced Modeling (OCCAM) project of the Bryan-Cox-Semtner model. An elastic-viscous-plastic ice rheology is employed, resulting in a fully explicit numerical scheme that improves computational efficiency. An improved two-equation turbulence model has been embedded to simulate the seasonal cycle of surface mixed layer depths as well as deepwater mixing on decadal timescale. The model has open boundaries in the northern Kattegat and is forced with realistic atmospheric fields and river runoff. Optimized computational performance and advanced algorithms to calculate processor maps make the code fast and suitable for multi-year, high-resolution simulations. As test cases, the major salt water inflow event in January 1993 and the stagnation period 1980-1992, have been selected. The agreement between model results and observations is regarded as good. Especially, the time evolution of the halocline in the Baltic proper is realistically simulated also for the longer period without flux correction, data assimilation, or reinitialization. However, in particular, smaller salt water inflows into the Bornholm Basin are underestimated, independent of the horizontal model resolution used. It is suggested that the mixing parameterization still needs improvements. In addition, a series of process studies of the inflow period 1992/1993 have been performed to show the impact of river runoff, wind speed, and sea level in Kattegat. Natural interannual runoff variations control salt water inflows into the Bornholm Basin effectively. The effect of wind speed variation on the salt water flux from the Arkona Basin to the Bornholm Basin is minor.
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| 2. |
- Meier, Markus, et al.
(author)
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Quality assessment of atmospheric surface fields over the Baltic Sea from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations with respect to ocean dynamics
- 2011
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In: Oceanologia. - 0078-3234. ; 53:1-TI, s. 193-227
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Climate model results for the Baltic Sea region from an ensemble of eight simulations using the Rossby Centre Atmosphere model version 3 (RCA3) driven with lateral boundary data from global climate models (GCMs) are compared with results from a downscaled ERA40 simulation and gridded observations from 1980-2006. The results showed that data from RCA3 scenario simulations should not be used as forcing for Baltic Sea models in climate change impact studies because biases of the control climate significantly affect the simulated changes of future projections. For instance, biases of the sea ice cover in RCA3 in the present climate affect the sensitivity of the model's response to changing climate due to the ice-albedo feedback. :From the large ensemble of available RCA3 scenario simulations two GCMs with good performance in downscaling experiments during the control period 1980-2006 were selected. In this study, only the quality of atmospheric surface fields over the Baltic Sea was chosen as a selection criterion. For the greenhouse gas emission scenario A1B two transient simulations for 1961 2100 driven by these two GCMs were performed using the regional, fully coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean model RCAO. It was shown that RCAO has the potential to improve the results in downscaling experiments driven by GCMs considerably, because sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations are calculated more realistically with RCAO than when RCA3 has been forced with surface boundary data from GCMs. For instance, the seasonal 2 m air temperature cycle is closer to observations in RCAO than in RCA3 downscaling simulations. However, the parameterizations of air-sea fluxes in RCAO need to be improved.
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| 3. |
- Wang, Shiyu, et al.
(author)
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Development and evaluation of a new regional coupled atmosphere-ocean model in the North Sea and Baltic Sea
- 2015
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In: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography. - : Stockholm University Press. - 0280-6495 .- 1600-0870. ; 67
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A new regional coupled model system for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea is developed, which is composed of the regional setup of ocean model NEMO, the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA4, the sea ice model LIM3 and the river routing model CaMa-Flood. The performance of this coupled model system is assessed using a simulation forced with ERA-Interim reanalysis data at the lateral boundaries during the period 1979-2010. Compared to observations, this coupled model system can realistically simulate the present climate. Since the active coupling area covers the North Sea and Baltic Sea only, the impact of the ocean on the atmosphere over Europe is small. However, we found some local, statistically significant impacts on surface parameters like 2m air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST). A precipitation-SST correlation analysis indicates that both coupled and uncoupled models can reproduce the air-sea relationship reasonably well. However, the coupled simulation gives slightly better correlations even when all seasons are taken into account. The seasonal correlation analysis shows that the air-sea interaction has a strong seasonal dependence. Strongest discrepancies between the coupled and the uncoupled simulations occur during summer. Due to lack of air-sea interaction, in the Baltic Sea in the uncoupled atmosphere-standalone run the correlation between precipitation and SST is too small compared to observations, whereas the coupled run is more realistic. Further, the correlation analysis between heat flux components and SST tendency suggests that the coupled model has a stronger correlation. Our analyses show that this coupled model system is stable and suitable for different climate change studies.
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| 4. |
- Zhang, Wenxin, et al.
(author)
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Tundra shrubification and tree-line advance amplify arctic climate warming : results from an individual-based dynamic vegetation model
- 2013
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In: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 8:3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- One major challenge to the improvement of regional climate scenarios for the northern high latitudes is to understand land surface feedbacks associated with vegetation shifts and ecosystem biogeochemical cycling. We employed a customized, Arctic version of the individual-based dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to simulate the dynamics of upland and wetland ecosystems under a regional climate model-downscaled future climate projection for the Arctic and Subarctic. The simulated vegetation distribution (1961-1990) agreed well with a composite map of actual arctic vegetation. In the future (2051-2080), a poleward advance of the forest-tundra boundary, an expansion of tall shrub tundra, and a dominance shift from deciduous to evergreen boreal conifer forest over northern Eurasia were simulated. Ecosystems continued to sink carbon for the next few decades, although the size of these sinks diminished by the late 21st century. Hot spots of increased CH4 emission were identified in the peatlands near Hudson Bay and western Siberia. In terms of their net impact on regional climate forcing, positive feedbacks associated with the negative effects of tree-line, shrub cover and forest phenology changes on snow-season albedo, as well as the larger sources of CH4, may potentially dominate over negative feedbacks due to increased carbon sequestration and increased latent heat flux.
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