| 1. |
- Banister, David, et al.
(författare)
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Transport Policy Scenarios for the EU : 2020 Images of the Future
- 2000
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Ingår i: Innovation. ; 13:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- It is essential to take a longer term view if sustainable mobility is to become a reality. This paper takes a perspective to 2020 and constructs Images of the future which conform to the principles of sustainable mobility. Set at the EU level, clear environmental, regional development and efficiency targets are set, within which strategies are developed, based on different combinations of technological innovation and the decoupling of economic growth from transport growth. The external political situation is taken as given with either a move towards greater co-operation (and extension) or towards greater fragmentation (and regionalisaization) in Europe. The three Images of the future (2020) demonstrate that challenging targets for sustainable mobility can be achieved through a range of different policy actions within the transport sector and more widely. Immediate action is required and even more difficult choices will have to be made in the EU 15, if large-scale extension of the EU takes place. Improvements in vehicle technology alone will not achieve the targets. More fundamental changes have to take place in the way in which people make travel choices and in the means by which freight is transported. All of these measures must involve less travel, more efficient and cleaner travel modes.
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| 2. |
- Björklund, Anna, et al.
(författare)
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Energiplanering med strategisk miljöbedömning i Finspång
- 2007
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Denna rapport är en del av slutrapporteringen från två av projekten i programmet ”Miljöstrategiska verktyg”. Projekten är Utveckling av verktyg för strategisk miljöbedömning och medborgarmedverkan (MiSt-projekt 1) samt Scenariometoder i strategisk miljöbedömning (MiSt-projekt 7). I samarbete med Finspångs kommun har ett gemensamt projekt utvecklats för att ta fram en ny energiplan i kommunen. Programmet "Miljöstrategiska verktyg", MiSt, är ett tvärvetenskapligt forskningsprogram finansierat av Naturvårdsverket. Programmet leds från Blekinge Tekniska Högskola. I programmet studeras verktyg som kan underlätta miljöbedömning i strategiskt beslutsfattande på olika nivåer, från nationell till lokal. Förståelsen och basen för utveckling av verktyg och rekommendationer om verktyg i olika planerings- och beslutsprocesser baseras på empirisk forskning på fall inom flera sektorer. Målen för MiSt-programmet: • Kritisk undersökning av verktygens funktion • Teoribaserad förståelse av deras verkan • Utveckling av råd om effektiv användning av verktyg och kombinationer avverktyg
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Börjeson, Lena, et al.
(författare)
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Scenario types and techniques : Towards a user's guide
- 2006
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Ingår i: Futures. - : Elsevier. - 0016-3287 .- 1873-6378. ; 38:7, s. 723-739
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Various scenario typologies have been suggested in attempts to make the field of futures studies easier to overview. Our typology is based on the scenario user's need to know what will happen, what can happen, and/or how a predefined target can be achieved. We discuss the applicability of various generating, integrating and consistency techniques for developing scenarios that provide the required knowledge. The paper is intended as a step towards a guide as to how scenarios can be developed and used.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Carlsen, Henrik, et al.
(författare)
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Co-evolutionary scenarios for creative prototyping of future robot systems for civil protection
- 2014
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Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 84, s. 93-100
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Co-evolutionary scenarios are used for creative prototyping with the purpose of assessing potential implications of future autonomous robot systems on civil protection. The methodology is based on a co-evolutionary scenario approach and the development of different evolutionary paths. Opportunities, threats and ethical aspects in connection with the introduction of robotics in the domestic security and safety sector are identified using an iterative participatory workshop methodology. Three creative prototypes of robotic systems are described: "RoboMall", "RoboButler" and "SnakeSquad". The debate in society that might follow the introduction of these three robot systems and society's response to the experienced ethical problems and opportunities are discussed in the context of two scenarios of different future societies.
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| 8. |
- Carlsen, Henrik, et al.
(författare)
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Systematic exploration of scenario spaces
- 2016
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Ingår i: Foresight. - 1463-6689 .- 1465-9832. ; 18:1, s. 59-75
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose - Scenarios have become a vital methodological approach in business as well as in public policy. When scenarios are used to guide analysis and decision-making, the aim is typically robustness and in this context we argue that two main problems at scenario set level is conservatism, i.e. all scenarios are close to a perceived business-as-usual trajectory and lack of balance in the sense of arbitrarily mixing some conservative and some extreme scenarios. The purpose of this paper is to address these shortcomings by proposing a methodology for generating sets of scenarios which are in a mathematical sense maximally diverse. Design/methodology/approach - In this paper, we develop a systematic methodology, Scenario Diversity Analysis (SDA), which addresses the problems of broad span vs conservatism and imbalance. From a given set of variables with associated states, SDA generates scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best span the whole set of feasible scenarios. Findings - The usefulness of the methodology is exemplified by applying it to sets of storylines of the emissions scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This ex-post analysis shows that the storylines were not maximally diverse and given the challenges ahead with regard to emissions reduction and adaptation planning, we argue that it is important to strive for diversity when developing scenario sets for climate change research. Originality/value - The proposed methodology adds significant novel features to the field of systematic scenario generation, especially with regard to scenario diversity. The methodology also enables the combination of systematics with the distinct future logics of good intuitive logics scenarios.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Dreborg, Karl Henrik, et al.
(författare)
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Självförstärkande processer i transportsystemet
- 2007
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- I samhällsdebatten och en del forskningsrapporter hävdas att det finns självförstärkande processer i transportsystemet med negativa konsekvenser för bl a miljön. Ett exempel som lyfts fram är privatbilismens utbredning i storstadsområdena, som växelverkat med glesare boendemönster och ett alltmer utbyggt vägnät i en uppåtgående spiral, i många fall med svåra trängselproblem och sämre luft som följd. I denna pilotstudie, som genomförts på uppdrag av Naturvårdsverket, används en systemteoretisk begreppsapparat för att analysera 10 exempel på självförstärkande processer i transportsystemet, varav två mer på djupet. De djupare analyserna avser 1) bilismens tillväxt i konkurrens med busstrafiken och 2) introduktionen och tillväxten av nya drivmedel. Preliminära slutsatser av generell karaktär är: • Oförmågan hos ett sociotekniskt system att hantera växande negativa konsekvenser kan analyseras i termer av externa effekter eller sociala dilemman. Externa effekter innebär att aktörer utanför systemet påverkas, som när biltrafiken på en gata stör nattsömnen för de boende i området. I ett socialt dilemma har de inblandade svårt att välja det som är bäst för kollektivet, därför att man inte litar på att de andra kommer att göra det. Problemen kan i båda fallen kräva politiska beslut. • Några centrala aspekter på problemet att vända eller bromsa en ond spiral, d.v.s. en självförstärkande process med negativa effekter, är om det finns höga trösklar mot en annan utvecklingsriktning, om timingen är mycket viktig (möjlighetsfönster), om systemet är symmetriskt i den meningen att det finns självförstärkande mekanismer även i en annan utvecklingsriktning. Det är också betydelsefullt om systemet är länkat eller inbäddat i andra system, vilket kan ge en stark inlåsningseffekt. Några slutsatser baserade på de två exempel som analyserats på djupet är: • För nya drivmedel har det funnits en mycket hög tröskel i c:a hundra år, d.v.s. under den tid som oljan dominerat i transportsektorn. Ett stigande bensinpris kan sänka tröskeln, liksom statliga satsningar på forskning och utveckling och nischmarknader för t.ex. miljöbilar. • När bilismen ökar på busstrafikens bekostnad, är detta en process med självförstärkande inslag. Den motsatta riktningen, d.v.s. ökande busstrafik, är däremot inte en självförstärkande process. Det råder brist på symmetri. Om det ses som viktigt att öka bussarnas marknadsandel, räcker det därför inte att bara försöka initiera en process i den riktningen. Incitamenten för pendlarna behöver ändras permanent till busstrafikens fördel. • Timingen är viktig för beslutet att stödja kollektivtrafiken. Om bilismen dominerar stort, är det svårt för kollektivtrafiken att ta marknadsandelar. Detta beror bl a på att bilismen för med sig ett mer utspritt boende i en glesare struktur som är svår att betjäna för kollektivtrafiken.
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| 11. |
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| 12. |
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| 13. |
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| 14. |
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| 15. |
- Höjer, Mattias, et al.
(författare)
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Experiences of the development and use of scenarios for evaluating Swedish environmental quality objectives
- 2011
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Ingår i: Futures. - : Elsevier. - 0016-3287 .- 1873-6378. ; 43:4, s. 498-512
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents and evaluates a method for encouraging long-term thinking and for considering a variety of scenarios in environmental policy processes. The Swedish environmental policy is based on 16 environmental quality objectives (EQOs) that national authorities are obliged to observe. These objectives are reviewed annually and evaluated in depth every four years. Here we describe and explore a futures study project for introducing more long-term thinking into work on the EQOs, which we tested in the in-depth evaluation in 2008. We found it difficult to design a collective scenario for a case with a wide variety of objectives and individuals with different backgrounds. However, this difficulty makes it even more important to incorporate futures studies into the work of the relevant authorities. Scenario work is often subcontracted, leading to a constant lack of futures studies expertise and thinking within authorities. Despite the difficulties, we found that experts within the authorities did begin to recognise the opportunities provided by futures studies. The project revealed an interest and need for futures studies within the authorities in charge of Swedish environmental quality objectives and our findings show that the authorities need to build up their own skills in futures studies.
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| 16. |
- Höjer, Mattias, et al.
(författare)
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Experiences of the development and use of scenarios for evaluating Swedish national environmental objectives
- 2011
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Ingår i: Futures. - : Elsevier BV. - 0016-3287 .- 1873-6378. ; 43:1, s. 1-15
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The aim of the present paper is to present and evaluate a method for encouraging long-term thinking and considerations of a variety of scenarios in environmental policy processes. The Swedish environmental policy is based on 16 environmental objectives that national authorities are responsible for. They are evaluated annually and also in-depth every fourth year. Here we describe and explore a futures study project for introducing a more long-term thinking in the work with the environmental objectives, tested in the in-depth evaluation 2008. An experience was that it is difficult to design a collective scenario work in a case with a wide variety of objectives and with individuals with different backgrounds. However, this difficulty makes it even more important to incorporate futures studies in authorities work. Scenario work is often subcontracted, leading to a constant lack of futures studies competence and thinking at the authorities. Another experience is that despite the difficulties, experts at the authorities did start thinking more in terms of opportunities with futures studies. A general conclusion from the work was that there is an interest and need for futures studies at the authorities in charge of the environmental objectives. The possibly most important conclusion from this project was that the authorities need to build up their own competences in futures studies.
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| 17. |
- Höjer, Mattias, et al.
(författare)
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Experiences of the development and use of scenarios for evaluating Swedish national environmental objectives (vol 43, pg 1, 2011)
- 2011
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Ingår i: Futures. - : Elsevier BV. - 0016-3287 .- 1873-6378. ; 43:4, s. 497-512
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents and evaluates a method for encouraging long-term thinking and for considering a variety of scenarios in environmental policy processes. The Swedish environmental policy is based on 16 environmental quality objectives (EQOs) that national authorities are obliged to observe. These objectives are reviewed annually and evaluated in depth every four years. Here we describe and explore a futures study project for introducing more long-term thinking into work on the EQOs, which we tested in the in-depth evaluation in 2008. We found it difficult to design a collective scenario for a case with a wide variety of objectives and individuals with different backgrounds. However, this difficulty makes it even more important to incorporate futures studies into the work of the relevant authorities. Scenario work is often subcontracted, leading to a constant lack of futures studies expertise and thinking within authorities. Despite the difficulties, we found that experts within the authorities did begin to recognise the opportunities provided by futures studies. The project revealed an interest and need for futures studies within the authorities in charge of Swedish environmental quality objectives and our findings show that the authorities need to build up their own skills in futures studies.
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| 18. |
- Höjer, Mattias, 1966-, et al.
(författare)
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Scenarios in selected tools for environmental systems analysis
- 2008
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Ingår i: Journal of Cleaner Production. - : Elsevier BV. - 0959-6526 .- 1879-1786. ; 16:18, s. 1958-1970
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A number of different tools for analysing environmental impacts of different systems have been developed. These include procedural tools such as strategic environmental assessment (SEA) and environmental management systems (EMS) as well as analytical ones such as life cycle assessment (LCA), life cycle costing (LCC), cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and the system of economic and environmental accounts (SEEA) including input-output analysis (IOA). Descriptions or scenarios of the future are typically relevant elements in these tools, since they are often used to describe impacts in the future. For futures studies a number of different approaches and techniques have been developed. In an earlier paper we have presented a typology of different types of scenarios that respond to different types of questions. These include predictive scenarios, explorative scenarios and normative scenarios. The aim of this paper is to explore connections between selected tools for environmental systems analysis and different scenario types. Although there is a clear need for futures studies in several tools for environmental systems analysis, it is interesting to note that the literature on methodologies for and case studies of combinations of futures studies and environmental systems analysis tools is rather limited. This suggests that there is a need for further research in this area including both methodoloy and practical case studies.
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| 19. |
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| 20. |
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| 21. |
- Jonsson, Daniel K., et al.
(författare)
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Energy and Security in Long-Term Defence Planning : Scenario Analysis for the Swedish Armed Forces
- 2009
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Ingår i: European Security. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0966-2839 .- 1746-1545. ; 18:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The competition for energy resources, as well as the closely related climate change problems, imply a number of global security consequences. A methodology to include energy aspects in long-term defence planning, based on broad civilian scenario approaches, is proposed. The study has been carried out by the Swedish Defence Research Agency, as commissioned by the Swedish Armed Forces, resulting in a number of future mission scenarios highlighting e.g. new challanges and tasks, as well as the need for new capabilities and equipment.
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| 22. |
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| 23. |
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| 24. |
- Milestad, Rebecka, et al.
(författare)
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Developing integrated explorative and normative scenarios : The case of future land use in a climate-neutral Sweden
- 2014
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Ingår i: Futures. - : Elsevier BV. - 0016-3287 .- 1873-6378. ; 60, s. 59-71
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Transition from the current oil-based world economy to an economy based on renewable resources can become a strong driving force for land use change. This paper describes the development of integrated explorative and normative scenarios for the analysis of future land use in a climate-neutral Sweden. The aim is to show how backcasting scenarios fulfilling far-reaching greenhouse gas reduction targets can be related to assumptions on possible external developments, in order to contribute to the discussion on future sustainable land use. A target-fulfilling scenario element was combined with an external scenario element, i.e. developments that cannot be influenced by the targeted actors. The scenarios were developed and analysed in collaboration with local actors. Four scenarios were used to describe how land in Sweden could be used when Sweden has achieved zero emissions of greenhouse gases in 2060. The explorative dimension stretched from a situation where there is no international climate agreement to one where there is an international agreement on reducing greenhouse gases. The backcasting dimension illustrated different strategies to achieve the target and stretches from a very influential municipal level to one where the national/EU level is most influential.
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| 25. |
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| 26. |
- Stenlund Nilsson Ivner, Jenny, 1976-, et al.
(författare)
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New Tools in Local Energy Planning: Experimenting with Scenarios, Public Participation and Environmental Assessment
- 2010
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Ingår i: Local Environment. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1354-9839 .- 1469-6711. ; 15:2, s. 105-120
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This article presents a model for local energy planning and its application in a full-scale experiment in a Swedish municipality. The model is based on legal requirement,research findings and standards of good practice and includes a combination ofanalytical and procedural tools intended to support rational decision-making: external scenarios, a citizens’ panel, life cycle analysis and qualitative environmental assessment (EA). The application of the model indicates that the decision-support tools selected can give several new and valuable inputs to local energy planning, suchas local knowledge and values through citizen dialogue and comprehensive EAs.However, the experiment also shows that there are several challenges involved in applying the tools, for example, it is difficult to get citizens and the industry to participate and that it is complicated to combine several different tools for decision making into a single planning process. Moreover, the experiences from the application suggest that the model for local energy planning show great potential but needs to be improved before it can be used as a standard of good practice.
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| 27. |
- Svenfelt, Åsa, 1968-
(författare)
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Two strategies for dealing with uncertainty in social-ecological systems
- 2010
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The scale of environmental problems is increasing. Globalisation and trade haveweakened the links between the ecosystems in which goods are produced and thecommunities in which they are consumed. This, combined with variability anddynamics in ecological and social systems, means that there are great uncertaintiesabout production conditions and about the impact on humans and theenvironment of decisions made at different levels in society. In order to achievesustainable management of ecosystems, more knowledge is needed when possible.In other cases, strategies for dealing with the uncertainties are needed. This thesis,in which ecological and social systems are regarded as integrated, analyses twostrategies for dealing with uncertainties in such social-ecological systems andthereby improving the potential for sustainable management of these systems.The strategies are i) Using futures studies as a method and ii) creating a tighterfeedback loop between society and ecosystems.Of the five studies included in this thesis, Papers I and II explore possibilities toreduce uncertainties through better feedback between ecosystems and society in aglobalised food system. A tighter feedback loop between society and ecosystemscould increase the potential of society to detect negative environmental impacts ofdifferent activities, respond to such signals (feedback) and make changes thatreduce the negative consequences. Papers III, IV and V develop methods andanalyse the use of futures studies as a tool for managing uncertainty inenvironmental policy processes, specifically the Swedish environmental qualityobjectives. It is difficult and sometimes impossible to predict future developmentsand there are also uncertainties because social-ecological systems are constantlychanging, sometimes in unexpected ways. In addition, the apparently most likelydevelopments may not be the most desirable. Futures studies are used in PapersIII-V to deal with these types of uncertainties. Within the context of these futuresstudies, methods for working together with stakeholders to identify actions andchanges needed to achieve environmental goals are also developed and tested.The results show that the potential exists to reduce certain types of uncertainty byreducing the distance between production and consumption (through localisedfood systems and institutions which transmit feedback). Another conclusion isthat a local food market (farmers’ market), which represents a direct link betweenproduction and consumption, could reduce a sense of uncertainty aboutproduction conditions for individual consumers, through the establishment oftrust in their relationship with the producer. However, only a few examples ofincreased ecological knowledge or increased knowledge about productionconditions were found among these consumers. The results also show that futuresstudies were able to serve as a framework for analysing environmental policyprocesses (the environmental quality objectives), as they provide a long-termperspective and help manage uncertainty by increased knowledge of alternativeactions in relation to several possible developments. Futures studies as ananalytical tool can also help identify partnerships and stakeholders that arenecessary to promote change in order to achieve environmental goals.
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| 28. |
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