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- Bian, Guodong, et al.
(författare)
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Detection and attribution of flood responses to precipitation change and urbanization : A case study in Qinhuai River Basin, Southeast China
- 2020
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Ingår i: Hydrology Research. - : IWA Publishing. - 1998-9563 .- 0029-1277 .- 2224-7955. ; 51:2, s. 351-365
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Both flood magnitude and frequency might change under the changing environment. In this study, a procedure combining statistical methods, flood frequency analysis and attribution analysis was proposed to investigate the response of floods to urbanization and precipitation change in the Qinhuai River Basin, an urbanized basin located in Southeast China, over the period from 1986 to 2013. The Mann–Kendall test was employed to detect the gradual trend of the annual maximum streamflow and the peaks over threshold series. The frequency analysis was applied to estimate the changes in the magnitude and frequency of floods between the baseline period (1986–2001) and urbanization period (2002–2013). An attribution analysis was proposed to separate the effects of precipitation change and urbanization on flood sizes between the two periods. Results showed that: (1) there are significant increasing trends in medium and small flood series according to the Mann–Kendall test; (2) the mean and threshold values of flood series in the urbanization period were larger than those in the baseline period, while the standard deviation, coefficient of variation and coefficient of skewness of flood series were both higher during the baseline period than those during the urbanization period; (3) the flood magnitude was higher during the urbanization period than that during the baseline period at the same return period. The relative changes in magnitude were larger for small floods than for big floods from the baseline period to the urbanization period; (4) the contributions of urbanization on floods appeared to amplify with the decreasing return period, while the effects of precipitation diminish. The procedure presented in this study could be useful to detect the changes of floods in the changing environment and conduct the attribution analysis of flood series. The findings of this study are beneficial to further understanding interactions between flood behavior and the drivers, thereby improving flood management in urbanized basins.
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| 2. |
- Du, Jinkang, et al.
(författare)
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Development and testing of a new storm runoff routing approach based on time variant spatially distributed travel time method
- 2009
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Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 369:1-2, s. 44-54
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this study, a GIS based simple and easily performed runoff routing approach based on travel time was developed to simulate storm runoff response process with consideration of spatial and temporal variability of runoff generation and flow routing through hillslope and river network. The watershed was discretized into grid cells, which were then classified into overland cells and channel cells through river network delineation from the DEM by use of GIS. The overland flow travel time of each overland cell was estimated by combining a steady state kinematic wave approximation with Manning’s equation, the channel flow travel time of each channel cell was estimated using Manning’s equation and the steady state continuity equation. The travel time from each grid cell to the watershed outlet is the sum of travel times of cells along the flow path. The direct runoff flow was determined by the sum of the volumetric flow rates from all contributing cells at each respective travel time for all time intervals. The approach was calibrated and verified to simulate eight storm runoff processes of Jiaokou Reservoir watershed, a sub-catchment of the Yongjiang River basin in southeast China using available topography, soil and land use data for the catchment. An average efficiency of 0.88 was obtained for the verification storms. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to investigate the effect of the area threshold of delineating river networks and parameter K relating channel velocity calculation on the predicted hydrograph at the basin outlet. The effects of different levels of grid size on the results were also studied, which showed that good results could be attained with a grid size of less than 200 m in this study. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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| 3. |
- Du, Jinkang, et al.
(författare)
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Development and testing of a simple physically-based distributed rainfall-runoff model for storm runoff simulation in humid forested basins
- 2007
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Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 336:3-4, s. 334-346
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A distributed rainfall-runoff model was developed to predict storm runoff from humid forested catchments. The model is physically based and takes into account the saturation excess overland flow mechanism and preferential subsurface flow. The watershed is discretized into a number of square grids, which then are classified into overland flow and channel flow elements based on water flow properties. On the overland elements, Infiltration, overland flow and lateral subsurface flow are estimated, while on channel flow elements river flow routing is performed. Lateral subsurface flow is calculated using Darcy’s law and the continuity equation, whereas overland flow and channel flow are modeled using a one dimensional kinematic wave approximation to the St. Venant equations. The model governing equations are solved by an implicit finite difference scheme. While using process-based equations and physically meaningful parameters, the model still maintains a relatively simple structure. Most of the model parameters can be derived from digital elevation models (DEMs), digital soil and land use data, and the remainder of the parameters that are comparatively sensitive can be determined by model calibration. The model is tested using nine storm events in the Jiaokou watershed, a sub-basin of Yongjiang River in Zhejiang Province, China. Of these storms, one storm is used for calibrating the model parameters and the remaining eight storms are used to verify the model. When judged by the model efficiency coefficient (R2), volume conversation index (VCI), absolute error of the time to peak (ΔT), and relative error of the peak flow rate (δPmax), acceptable results are achieved. Sensitivity analysis shows that the model is sensitive to saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks), Manning’s roughness coefficients (n) and the initial soil moisture content.
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